Naked Science Forum
On the Lighter Side => New Theories => Topic started by: archie bishop on 01/04/2009 23:58:44
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I have reason to believe that the government are falsely stating how much oil we have. Canada can now recover oil from the tar sands economically, i understand that Venezuela also have tar sands and their tar sands have more oil than the rest of the worlds oil reserves put together so it is now irrelevant to talk about oil shortages.
regards,
archie bishop
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Depends what you mean by oil shortage. As the price of oil goes up, which will happen as we exhaust more accessible fields, oil which was previously too expensive to drill for becomes profitable. So yes, there's a good deal of oil out there which we could, ultimately, access.. but it's going to get more and more expensive and it is probably sensible to go for reduction of our oil usage as far as we sensibly can, both by finding alternatives - which although they may look expensive now will in some cases cost much less than the tar sands oil when the technology matures.
Also, "more oil than the rest of the world's oil reserves put together" isn't really all that much if there's to be any hope of our grandchildren (or indeed our children if the rest of the world catches up to western world standards of living) enjoying a lifestyle as easy as ours is at present.
Then of course there's the question of global warming. I know from your post elsewhere that you think you "have reason to believe" that's a hoax too. But if you're wrong*, then burning even some of that venezuelan tar oil is going to totally wipe out our grandchildrens chances at that easy lifestyle.
*And you are wrong - about the hoax, whether or not the majority of climate scientists are wrong about global warming.
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hold on listen we have not even talked about the Russian oil reserves or the oil that will be accessible from under the polar ice caps as the planet warms. the price of oil is determined, not by supply and demand but by how much the oil cartels think they can gouge us, as is proven by the fact that oil companies greatest profits occur immediately after each of the perceived energy shortages that we have been through over the past 30 or 40 years.
regards,
archie bishop
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If you want to talk reasonably about world resources, READ - AND UNDERSTAND - THE DATA first.
To consider things a hoax without even researching the claims is simplistic and absolutely the wrong way to approach ANY topic. There is more oil, but as Rosy said, it is more and more difficult to extract and refine.
One question - Where is the data for this claim????
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As some middle eastern Sheik said "The stone age did not end because we ran out of stone".
Cheers
justaskin
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I would suggest you read this [url]http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=21551.0[/url.
It will help you understand oil extraction, as it did for me.
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Fixing Don_1's link (http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=21551.0) http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=21551.0
The problem is not so much the quantity of oil; it is the cost of getting it in a form that people can agree is usable. There is much opposition to any thing relating to oil production. The opposition is a great contributor to the cost.
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Thanks Vern, I hadn't noticed my bungle there!
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As some middle eastern Sheik said "The stone age did not end because we ran out of stone".
Cheers
justaskin
That is true. It ended when 'they' found something better.
Let's hope, then.
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Most, if not all, of the problems related to oil price are related to Vern's comment - "The problem is not so much the quantity of oil; it is the cost of getting it in a form that people can agree is usable."
The refining capacity is evaluated, there just isn't enough to supply demand. In the US it takes seven to ten years to PERMIT a new refinery and an additional 110-12 years to build one. The last refinery built in the US was in 1979.
New refineries are in the permitting process for San Francisco area - a wonderful place for earthquakes but not refineries.
The problems are NOT totally related to refining, however. The supply is a problem as well. There is less supply than their was 10 years ago even if oil shale and conventional resources are counted. - Refining oil shales has the same permitting and construction time constraints as conventional oil. It is more difficult, of course, it you are doing this in the north of Canada where you only have 6 months of the year in which to build a refinery. And KEEPING it running is one heck of a challenge. Ever consider the freezing and thawing of pipe connections? They easily fail. And thus, the refinery goes down for days while the repairs are being made. Starting the process up again is a matter of a week or so.
There is just a whole lot going on that most people don't know about.