Naked Science Forum
General Science => General Science => Topic started by: ijaz on 03/12/2015 07:45:22
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Using mathematical models, chaos theory , etc is it possible to predict terrorist incidents , provided one has access to data??
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I recall hearing that researchers are developing models to make predictions about terror hotspots and other problem areas; they integrate various factors such as geography, politics, military presence and so on. The problem is that terrorists tend to operate as small groups who behave chaotically comapred with large systematic manoeuvres made by big armies, so this introduces complexity into the problem.
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While artificial intelligence may provide the narratives to interpret terrorism
intelligently, criminal behavior cannot be predicted by mathematical models.
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h t t p ://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zqsg9qt#ztg8qty
h t t p ://www.allreadable.com/undefined
h t t p ://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/jun/25/predicting-crime-lapd-los-angeles-police-data-analysis-algorithm-minority-report
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The point of terrorism, as distinct from conventional conflict, is unpredictability. In principle a terrorist could choose a weapon and then select his target by the throw of dice or sticking a pin in a map, because the object is to attack random and unprotected civilians. This is only mitigated by the need to cause maximum effect with minimum resources, so you stick the pins in areas where the survivors are likely to blame the authorities whose policies you want to change. And of course you want maximum publicity outside the target area, so chose a city with good CCTV coverage.
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I reject the materialist views promoted by the Internet that the mind could be analysed through computer-assisted algorithms. Such dogmas are products of the conscious mind to promote an ideology based on fear
of terrorism.