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When will the magnesium or calcium carbonate buffer in the ocean break?
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When will the magnesium or calcium carbonate buffer in the ocean break?
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Chondrally
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When will the magnesium or calcium carbonate buffer in the ocean break?
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19/07/2015 23:03:18 »
The politicians couldn't understand or respond to this even with all their advisers!
pH oscillation in ocean previous results
depend on equations from Zeebe and Wolf-
Gladrow in book: CO2 in Seawater.
The following article depends entirely on the Diffusion equations for CO2 in water and O2 in
water at the air/ocean interface, and the equilibrium at the surface, solved down to depth at
varying temperature and pressure. It also, and more importantly, depends on the kinetics
equations for the salts and minerals in the ocean like phosphates, nitrates, sulphates, and other
known minerals like Calcium Carbonate (aragonite and calcite) and Magnesium Carbonate
(magnesite) and their kinetic balance with CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 in seawater as
described in the equations by Dr. Zeebe and Dr. Wolf-Gladrow in their book: CO2 in Seawater:
Equilibria, Kinetics, Isotopes. If those equations are incorrect then my results are incorrect. If
they are true, then logically from the software (debugged) the results below are true to the best
of anyones knowledge. They can and have been inspected. Also, if the pH equations of
Brookhaven National Lab scientist Dr. Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace are incorrect , then also
my results are incorrect. To the best of my knowledge all typos and errors have been removed
from the code over a period stretching from 2007 to present. To the best of my knowledge and
experience the equations of Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow and the software and equations of Dr.
Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace of Brookhaven National Labs are correct and verified.
One should bear in mind that 18 g=18 millilitres of H2O contains approx. Avogadros number of
molecules of water (plus minerals , etc...) and that is about 6.024 x 10^23 molecules of
H2O. According to the work of Dr. K. Gubbins at Cornell, the quantum wave function of 100
molecules of water can not be calculated on a supercomputer because it is too combinatorially
explosive. Likewise, an accurate calculation on a quantum computer would take an infinite
amount of time, as water moves in time, just like smoke in air. In fact , no accurate calculation
of turbulence exists compared to a kayakers mind going down whitewater rapids at the
Olympics. Smoke in air is just not repeatable from second to second or millisecond to
millisecond for that matter. Likewise, minerals and water structure beyond about 23 molecules
of water cannot reasonably be expected to be simulated or predicted with any real to life
accuracy. Then there is the contemplation of a lake or a river beyond 18 ml of water, and the
contemplation of the whole water cycle, weather, the oceans. Averages into the future can be
estimated along with confidence bounds, and these are acceptable for
planning, however, actual knowledge of all the trillions and trillions of molecules and their
whereabouts from millisecond to millisecond are not predictable. A case in point is flight
MH370 from Malaysia to God doesn't know where!!!! if you get my drift. This is my disclaimer
for these results. They are averages of what is most likely, but a living ocean and atmosphere
with orgone energy throws enough uncertainty into the results that we may never be sure ahead
of time. We need to make plans however, and it is wise to take precautions and take the side of
caution. I personally am convinced that these results are genuine and we should heed them. But
in a complex world with many demands on us like the conflict in Ukraine, Iran, N.
Korea,Afghanistan,Pakistan and India,China and the rest of the world, Israel and
Palestine, Mexico and US , Energy needs and Oil and Gas or Nuclear (Thorium), and the fact
it takes 20 years to get permissions and plan and build a new nuclear reactor.... we may not have
enough time to save the oceans. Like James Lovelock said, we might , in order to prevent from
getting too depressed over the issue, just enjoy living our little personal lives ; 1 out of 7 billion
can't hope to really change it all in time and few would believe him or her anyway because they
don't have the background education to understand or the connections necessary, or they might
lose too much money in the process. So C'est la vie. Life goes on one way or the
other. Besides, the whole thing may be a secret illusion concocted by aliens, the Elites or
both to suck Orgone out of all of us and all of Earth. I wouldn't put it past them. I don't know
anyone who has actually taken CO2 measurements of the atmosphere, I've never talked with
such a person. I've heard they are using laser spectroscopy to make the measurements at Mauna
Kea in Hawaii (the astronomical observatory there) and many other places at NASA, military
bases and civilian universities. But I've never seen a TV show about it or heard their tones or
found out how it works in detail. It is possible that you can make CO2 measurements with
barium hydroxide solution in water in a lab at a school, but it is not very accurate and it is
laborious. I know how to do it, and have mentioned the technique in my blog earlier. But i
know of no one or no school willing to let their kids do it, or kids willing to do it. The whole
thing is based in fear and doomsday messages. I guess we just have to choose to live in spite of
the insecurity and realize that it all might be just a bad dream. Babies are still born, and they
still drink their mothers milk and they dream, feel secure usually, and grow up and find their way
in life one way or the other. The Gig is up. They still kill rats at the hospital in the name of good
science. Listen to the music. They either sink or swim. I think we should choose to swim
regardless and play some beautiful music along the way. The markets are still all stealing and so
are the political parties. Politics is often a blood sport. Its not necessary for that to be so with
better education and information and connections with good folk. With no reward in sight or
sound or sex or any of the senses for that matter for my work on the environment in terms of
acclamation or much recognition, it And now for the main agenda:
pH oscillation will impact diversity and life in the ocean perhaps catastrophically unless
intervention occurs.
Fish,crustaceans, corals and marine mammals like cetaceans and all marine animal and plant life
may be at risk due to the pH drop that will most likely occur between 2022 and 2024 , first the
pH will rise by .5 to 8.9 approximately in 2018 then it will drop to 8.4 the following year then to
7.9 and contine dropping to a value just above 7.8 by 2069. So the magnesium carbonate buffer
will break in the ocean around 490 ppm within a period of 2 years, and the calcium carbonate
buffer will break in the ocean around 945 ppm within a period of 10 years.
The calculations take into account the SWS scale of pH which includes an analysis at depth and
CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 concentrations and their solubility products as well as phosphates,
bromium,boron,chlorine, sodium, Magnesium Carbonate (magnesite)buffer and Calcium
carbonate(both aragonite and calcite) buffer and Sulphur dioxide (sulphuric acid) and all other
relavant chemical species that exist in the ocean in abundance that are significant (about 98% of
the variation is accounted for statistically). An average Temperature change profile with depth is
used but temperature changes year over year are ingnored in this time period due to the great
heat capacity of water, but temperatures are rising causing a die off of phytoplankton in the
ocean
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/phytoplankton-panic/
...
. A .1 degree change in the entire ocean is equivalent to a nuclear bomb going off in terms of
raw heat energy. So we ignore the temperature changes as they are mostly negligible on average
for the entire ocean. This might be a mistake, a future analysis to take this into account is
planned. But i wanted, in the interests of time and security and safety to get the broad outlines of
the chemistry calculated to release the results.
I used the formulas developed by Brookhaven National Labs at the Carbon Dioxide Information
Analysis Centre on the SWS scale for pH and total alkalinity developed by scientists Ernie Lewis
and Doug Wallace,
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/co2rprt.html
and diffusion equations at depth solving for the equilibrium concentration at the surface first.
I used all the formulas in the book CO2 in seawater;Equilibrium, kinetics and isotopes by Zeebe
and Wolf-Gladrow
http://store.elsevier.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780444509468&pagename=search
I recommend reading the IPCC reports even though their summary only focusses on
aragonite, and has better regional data and profiles than i could muster.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-4-2.html
They did not contain enough detail for me to be sure they were reporting the situation accurately
or repeatably (they were missing a lot of the story in their public reports and were appealing to
their own authority for validity rather than allowing independent verification), which is
unscientific. They never admit their ignorance or doubt on any topic. For instance, nobody
knows for sure how much aragonite is accessible for buffering from the ocean bottom(floor)
across the entire ocean. Estimates have been made by drilling core samples at many
locations, and statistical sampling techniques have been used to estimate the total, but nobody
knows for sure (they can be pretty certain, but they never even discuss this point). There may be
vast deposits of fossil aragonite on the ocean floor that they have missed, or there may be
none. My bet is that there are some, given the vastness of the ocean floor, and the fact that they
have only just discovered a massive fossil reserve on land near the Burgess shale in the Rockies.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/vast-fossil-bed-found-in-rocki
...
Also , until the advent of modern sonar techniques (only now in 2014 coming to the mainstream
science community) to measure salinity, pH,temperature and velocity profiles, only just now are
we getting valid data about the ocean as a whole from these techniques, and there are some
errors in measurment that creep in especially if instruments aren't calibrated properly and kept
maintained;and their is massive variability in the data, both is space and time. this information
has not yet been assimilated by the IPCC team, or at least they have not made this assimilation
public, or the data public.
I have computed the density and pressure of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere up to 44 km
high (beyond this they are inclculable mostly as they are too small to have an impact). the total
is integrated numerically and the results are tabulated in the previous post.
I have solved the diffusion equilibrium equations at the surface and at depth to calculate CO2
concentrations at depth for the first 1000 feet of the ocean (333.3 metres), calculated at every .1
metre.
The pH values indicate that beginning around 2017 to be conservative and continuing to 2020
the ocean will exhibit some wild pH fluctuations in the first 1000 feet, and probably beyond at
greater depth as well. This relatively enormous fluctuation from 8.4 baseline up to 8.9 (a
difference of .5 pH) and then a dive back down to 7.9 will have a major impact on life in the
oceans. fish will feel it as will all marine life. There may be a mass die off, and some
evolution. The base of the food chain has already been impacted since 1950, seeing a drop of
40% over this time period.
http://news.discovery.com/earth/phytoplankton-oceans-food-web.htm
The loss of phytoplankton is little understood, but probably related to temperature and pollution
and pH changes in the ocean. The loss is probably more attributable historically since 1950 due
to temperature and pollution changes in the ocean, as during this time up until the present, pH
has stayed relatively stable. We desperately need to find subsets of the marine life and especially
krill, zooplankton and phytoplankton that can survive at pH 7.9 (and if they can photosynthesize
that would be a bonus) and that are resitant to temperature changes especially. Experiments in
the lab at pH 7.9 and increased temperatures with populations of krill and plankton subspecies is
necessary to create a population that can survive and thrive under these conditions, and then
seed the oceans with this subset at around the right time period. Timing is
everything. Measurements of ocean pH and temperature need to be made periodically as they
are. Temperature, salinity and velocity profile can be measured in the ocean with new sonar
techniques.
http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/new-sonar-technology-reveals
...
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6404791&url=http%3
...
There are groups of three unmanned drones surveying the ocean as we speak(2014) gathering
sonar data, so that triangulation can be done and the equations can be solved for the
unknowns....
If the ocean can be seeded at the right time, the base of the food chain will survive, giving
optimal chances for survival of aquatic life in general. We need to seed also at a pH of 8.9 and
up to this value, and keep seeding on the precipitous dive afterwards. It could be a catastrophic
event resulting in the death of the oceans if we don't carefully examine the cause and the and
take preventative and interventionist measures to ensure the survival of aquatic species.
It appears the mechanism is that there is a lot less magnesium in the ocean than calcium, and
around 2018 the magnesiumk buffer breaks between 490 to 500 ppm in the atmosphere. The
calcium carbonate buffer does not break just yet (thank goodness,, and we have some time left to
solve the CO2 emission problem after this point due to the ongoing activity of the calcium
carbonate buffer).
We shouldn't rule out the use of genetic engineering to save the food chain in the oceans, but
preferably we should avoid it as it could lead to unintended consequences as natural species have
the diversity in their DNA of a long history of environmental changes and the rapid cycling of
generations due to pH changes could result in the expression of survival DNA.
But there is still a puzzle as to why the zooplankton have not thrived as much or adapted since
1950, perhaps due to pollution in general. Perhaps their DNA has never seen such a pH range
and they may be too finely tuned to historic levels prior to the industrial revolution.
When the pH reaches 8.9 (which is more basic/alkaline) there will be less CO2 in the ocean, ie.
the ocean suck gas CO2 from the atmosphere, increasing pressure and concentration at the
depth, causing more CO2 at depth, causing the pH to drop again and become more acidic in a
feedback loop. So the rise and fall in pH will oscillate in actual fact and the ppm of the
atmosphere will oscillate over relatively short time scales (days and weeks), thus establishing a
break in the magnesite buffer. Similarly when the pH is 7.9, there would be more carbonic acid
in the ocean, sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere. Once the magnesite buffer is broken, the
ppm in the atmosphere directly above and locally will decrease, causing a change in the
equilibrium, and the ocean will off gas, increasing the ppm of the atmosphere, and decreasing the
CO2 concentration in the ocean, increasing alkalinity and pH in a feedback loop. The ppm and
pH will oscillate back and forth in different regions once the feeback loop has started operating
and equilibrium would be broken, confirming the break in the magnesite buffer. Unstable ppm
and pH levels are dangerous for aquatic species of plants and animals, and the rapid cycling
would weather them and perhaps cause an inability to adapt over those time scales
involved, resulting in a die off of marine life. The pH could vary by as much as 1 pH over the
SWS scale over relatively short times like a week or a few days. The feedback loop is
practically continuous in time and space.
The living ocean is a concept that should not be underestimated.
The living ocean is a concept that should not be underestimated. There are waves, pressure and
temperature differences, micro-climate hot and cold spots, pH fluctuations and currents and
teeming with life (though fish have been disappearing due to the base of the food chain being
eroded and overfishing and deep sea trawling). There have been pH values recorded by Al
Gore's team of 7.5 in acid spots in the pacific. Perhaps fish feel that and avoid them when they
occur due to natural fluctuations. The ocean off gases CO2 from deep ocean currents when they
rise to the surface, and highly dense CO2 concentrations exist deep in the ocean in cold
waters. Perhaps fish and krill and phytoplankton and zooplankton can already survive at pH 7.9
on average. The averages are still important for the food chain mortality statistics. Research
still has to be done to make sure the food chain does not suffer an irreversible collapse if the
magnesium buffer breaks due to high CO2 concentrations in the top 1000 feet of the
ocean. Preventative and Survival measures and intervention might need to be taken to ensure
biosphere survival. It is impossible to predict ecosystems and micro-climate accurately or as to
timing. The ocean is so variable due to local fluctuations of sunlight, weather and wind and rain
and local CO2 concentrations in the ocean and atmosphere, googleplex atoms and molecules
dancing about and interacting, chaos and fluctuations and nonlinear dynamical systems theory
occurring all the time. But the static theory averages predict that around 490 to 500 ppm of CO2
in the atmosphere, the magnesium carbonate buffer could break for the entire ocean within a 2
year window. If this happens, the consequences could be drastic. No one can say for sure what
will happen. But we should definately be worried and be prepared to take some kind of action
geoengineering wise to ensure the continued survival of the living ocean.
Lets hope that whatever force it takes to save the oceans happens within three to seven years in
preparation for the event. The following might be a potential solution to the problem:
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=53180.msg447667#msg447667
Let's hope the ocean doesn't have a bad day at black rock.
«
Last Edit: 11/08/2015 17:00:58 by Chondrally
»
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Chondrally
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Re: When will the magnesium or calcium carbonate buffer in the ocean break?
«
Reply #1 on:
19/07/2015 23:05:27 »
Another interesting phenomenon aside from concentration of ions and gravity is the Coriolis force itself, the force on the oceans molecule that changes with altitude that causes currents to flow along with gravity. Why water in the sink turns one way in the northern hemisphere and another in the southern hemisphere (clockwise in North, anit-Clockwise in the South). If the CO2 or carbonate molecules are heavier than water, both gravity and the coriolis effect would help them to sink to depth faster than water would mix. It would cause some water mixing due to friction of molecules. but it also explains the propensity of sea snow to form and fall and redissolve at depth.
Modeling this is difficult for the whole ocean as large currents form and some places huge upward currents carrying very dense CO2 concentrations occur and at these places off-gasing occurs.
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Re: When will the magnesium or calcium carbonate buffer in the ocean break?
«
Reply #2 on:
19/07/2015 23:07:46 »
Empirical test of pH decrease, ocean acidification is very simple if you have a chemistry lab near the coast.
Collect 1 litre of seawater from the atlantic, pacific , arctic, antartic or indian ocean in a beaker and seal it and take it to your nearest university chemistry lab.
At the university conduct a controlled experiment with a pH monitor instrument dipped into the beaker and thermometer and pressure measuring instrument(air-barometer) and seal the beaker from the atmosphere except for a CO2 hose going inside the beaker to the air above the seawater.
Slowly increase the concentration and pressure of CO2 above the water and record temperature, pressure in a closed volume along with the time... this process should allow for diffusion of the CO2 into the seawater. Record the changing pH and The CO2 concentration and pressure as the CO2 is slowly over hours increased to 550 ppm at 101.3 kPa equivalent. Using PV=NRT or better yet, van der Walls equations for CO2.
Record the pH drop when it occurs and report the experiment and apparatus online or in a journal. Repeat the experiment 32 times to reduce statistical error to hone the estimate of the crtical empirical concentration of CO2 that causes the breakdown in the magnesium carbonate buffer. Confirm that it is the magnesium carbonate buffer that has broken.
Good Luck!
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