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Offline daveshorts

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #25 on: 07/05/2005 10:35:40 »
In time science would certainly accept the experiment if it was repeatable, whether your exact conclusions would be accepted would depend on the experiment and what it showed.

It is not that I automatically don't believe you Andrew, it is that your conclusions are not consistent with a lot of previous observations. So unless you can provide new observations, and make your theories mathematically consistent they are not going to be accepted.
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #26 on: 07/05/2005 14:02:13 »
The thing about time is that no one really knows how long we have got. The idea of sitting around waiting for someone else to decide whether my work deserves closer inspection or not, is something I do not have the time for! If people have to keep relying on often-archaic literature, it is not to make things fit with any new paradigm, I can assure you.

It is to make sure that academia soft jobs are zealously guarded, and that the academics don’t look too stupid, when they are kicked off their self-serving pedestals! Most of these people have never contributed Jack-**** to the progression of science and are often incapable of producing an original thought. Their job is to regurgitate often-undigested bull**** on demand, and vehemently defend it from anyone who dares to question their “Authority”???? Oddly enough, a bit like the requirements for passing any examination in a school. The pupils that ask why in class are often ridiculed and thought to be stupid. Has anyone ever considered that these pupils don’t understand the science because the science is flawed?

No connection with any person on this message board intended or implied.



Andrew


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Offline daveshorts

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #27 on: 07/05/2005 14:56:48 »
There admittedly are some acedemics who are as you describe, but there are also an awful lot of hard working people who would like nothing better than to change a paradigm or two (apart from anything else it will get them on TV). However for every paridigm changing experiment or theory you get several thousand experiments where someone plugged their wires in the wrong way round, lost a minus sign in their algebra or forgot an obvious alternative explanation, so you learn to be cynical about experiments that appear to give radical results especially your own.

This is why scientists are wary of people turning up with alternative hypothesis to explain how the universe works, when the current theories work extreemly accurately, and the alternative hasn't been experimentally tested, or even had back of the evelope calculations do to see whether it is self-consistent.
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #28 on: 07/05/2005 17:28:30 »
Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius -- and a lot of courage -- to move in the opposite direction.
E. F. Schumacher

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
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Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #29 on: 07/05/2005 17:47:41 »
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Mystical friction as you put it is currently ripping Io to bits. If you were to do a data search on high tides, due to the effects of the position of the moon and planets, you would find a staggering correlation with volcanic eruptions and Earthquakes. Following the Eclipse, I will always remember the Awe inspiring event. Shortly after it I said to my friends. There is going to be a massive Earthquake within a few days!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Andrew
Several years ago a friend challenged me to try to correlate earthquakes with the position of the moon and tides.  I came up with nifty little program to calculate the longitude (though not latitude) position of the moon at any given time in the past 50 years (it could be stretched further back if need be, but earthquake information becomes far less reliable).  I calculated correlation coefficients of over 120,0000 earthquake times and positions to the longitudinal position of the moon, broken down into several categories of magnitude and depth of the earthquake. There is absolutely no correlation between position of the moon and earthquakes, with two small exceptions- shallow earthquakes less than magnitude 2 showed a very weak positive correlation and deep earthquakes between magnitude 5 and 7 actually showed a very weak negative correlation.  The moon causes, by far, the greatest tidal forces on earth.  I also looked at correlations with aphelion and perihelion, apogee and perigee of the moon and alignment of sun-moon- again with no correlation.  I have not yet tried this with volcanic eruptions, but strongly doubt that any correlation exists.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
« Last Edit: 07/05/2005 17:49:53 by Bass »
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #30 on: 07/05/2005 18:07:19 »
HI Bass

Thanks for your post.

Is there any way I can get my hands on the programme?

I would like to see if there is a correlation following  4-10 DAY period after the lunar events? Though not sure of locations of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Fathoming that one out is beyond me.

Only a month or so we were walking along the beech and I said to my wife at the time, that there is a lot of weight displaced to other areas, because the tide had gone out much further than I could remember. Sure enough, another earthquake hit the Indian Ocean not long after. There does seem to be a period after the event where nothing much happens, but if the tide has moved a substantial amount of water there does appear to be some kind of earth stress event.

Just re-read your post. Were you looking in specific areas on the planet in relation to the position of the moon event? Or did your programme account for the location in relation to the position of the lunar event?

Andrew
« Last Edit: 07/05/2005 18:19:45 by Andrew K Fletcher »
 

Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #31 on: 07/05/2005 18:55:36 »
Andrew

That program was written several years and computers ago- seems to me that I ran it as a function on an Excel spreadsheet.  I'll have a look around and see if I can find it- but can't make any promises.

What it compared was the longitudinal position of the moon with the longitudinal position of the earthquakes (plus or minus 10 degrees).  I also examined correlation with the far side of the earth and perpendicular to earth-moon axis (to examine both high and low tides).  I did not take into consideration latitudinal position, but I don't think this would have changed the correlation coefficients.  I used an NOAA database showing spring and neap tides to calculate the coefficient with sun-moon alignment, and used a NASA database to get the perihelion, aphelion, apogee and perigee times.

Earthquake data came from a USGS worldwide database showing time, magnitude, depth and position of past earthquakes- like I said, several years ago so I don't remember the specific web site.

Then I plugged all this into a massive spreadsheet- in fact, I had to break into smaller spreadsheets (magnitude and depth) because my computer at the time kept running out of memory.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #32 on: 07/05/2005 22:04:04 »
Can you remember whether it listed days post alignment event? Ive got a strong feeling that there is about a 4 day plus delay before anything happens.

Prior to the last eclipse visible here in the uk, I recall the local media scoffingly saying In ancient times the eclipse was thought to bring about disasters. I cringed when I heard it, as I had already mentioned this to my family. It was an amazing event, my dogs all just sat down and everything went deathly silent, then the shadow raced across the land eating up the surrounding area and triggering all the street lights to turn on. Awesome experience!

Thank you very much for your time and help, most appreciated

Andrew
 

Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #33 on: 07/05/2005 23:47:20 »
While I didn't test for a delay of several days, I did graphically plot the number of earthquake events vs. alignment over time (actually the spring/neap tides).  I don't recall that there was a spike in the number of earthquakes several days after spring tides (neap tides occur 7 days after spring tides).  But I would have to find my past work to check for sure.
Assuming that earthquakes happen when when the strain finally becomes greater than the rocks resistance to breakage, why do you suppose a delay of 4 or so days would have an effect on earthquakes?  My thoughts were that earth tides would increase strain or possibly decrease the vertical strain component, which could cause release- but these points would be either directly under the moon or perpendicular to the earth-moon axis.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #34 on: 08/05/2005 09:31:25 »
Bass
I hold my hands up and don't really know for sure why the delay should occur.

One possible reason is the stability of the crust in the area over a period of time has built up some resistance to the stress, due to the compacting of the sediment and rocks.

Having used a road drill for some time to break up concrete and road surfaces, the first impact does not cause any considerable damage, and the eventual crumbling of the concrete takes some considerable vibrational impacts before it crumbles, leaving a delay from when you start the hammer to when you actually break up the concrete.

Maybe it takes a while for the vibrations to weaken the surface before the pressure caused by the shift in the force to have an effect.

It is just something I have noticed over the years and would be very interested to see if it can be backed up by historical events.

In areas that are unstable, the event should happen soon after the planetary alignments take place, whereas in areas free from relatively recent disturbances in the crust should resist the vibrations for a longer period.

If we turn to Io again, the constant pulling and releasing of Jupiter’s massive gravitational force does indicate that this effect is a possibility, as it is believed that a tremendous amount of friction and heat is generated by the alignment of the forces of both the planet and the moons. And I would presume that the effects on this environment would be near instantaneous, if not constant.

Another possibility is that the sudden release of the molten core, along with the weight of the shift in the ocean mass has an effect similar to that of stretched elastic when it is released and that the constant movements of the core as it settles back to a more stable ball shape rather than a slight egg shape is responsible for the delay in the events at the crust.

Andrew


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Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #35 on: 08/05/2005 20:18:31 »
Andrew
I managed to find some of the charts I put together showing number of earthquakes relative to the phases of the moon and the moon's apogee-perigee.  (Not knowing how to post a chart on this forum, I sent one of the charts to you via email).

The charts show very little correlation of earthquakes to phases of the moon.  Nor did I notice any sort of delayed reaction- the 4 days or so that you hypothesized.

 
quote:
In areas that are unstable, the event should happen soon after the planetary alignments take place, whereas in areas free from relatively recent disturbances in the crust should resist the vibrations for a longer period.


Planetary alignment has no effect on earthquakes, the tidal forces are negligible. The amount of gravitational force objects have on earth is F=GMm/d^2, where F is the force of gravity, G is the gravitational constant (6.67259 X 10^-11 N m^2/kg^2), M is the mass of the object, m is the mass of the earth, and d is the distance between the objects.  The formula for tidal forces is F=2GMm/d^3.  Distance is a more important factor in tidal forces than in gravitational forces, which is the reason the moon causes a greater tidal effect than the sun.  Distance basically negates tidal forces from the planets, even when aligned.

If the molten core changes from a sphere to an egg-shape and back again in response to lunar phases, it should produce a measurable wobble in the earth's rotation.  I'll plead ignorance, but do you know if there is a measurable change due to changes in the core?

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #36 on: 08/05/2005 20:36:31 »
Thank you for sending the chart, I will try to digest it over the next few days.

I doubt your plea of ignorance will be heard. Like yourself, I would hope that there is a measurable wobble in the Earth's rotation,that would correlate to planetary alignment and maybe this could even be found to correlate with the normal daily lunar cycles, some stronger than others, depending on the tidal shifts? I am not sure if this has been done to any significant result but seems a logical approach to the problem.

"The explanation requiring the fewest assumptions is most likely to be correct."
K.I.S. "Keep it simple!"
« Last Edit: 08/05/2005 20:38:40 by Andrew K Fletcher »
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #37 on: 09/05/2005 14:43:43 »
Full Moon brings more earthquakes.
http://www.nasca.org.uk/Asian_disaster/asian_disaster.html#shape
An example of how potent an influence the Full Moon can be in sparking earthquakes can be seen from the Full Moon on the 24 th - 25th January. This was the first Full Moon after the South East Asia disaster and incredibly the area around the Nicobar Islands in the Indian Ocean - especially badly hit in the catastrophe - had at least 160 earthquakes above 5 magnitude in just 6 days. This included a particularly active period just after the Full Moon on the 27th of January when this vulnerable island chain was hit by over 60 earthquakes above 5 magnitude in just 24 hours.

Barely understood.

The magnetic field is a mysterious quantity that is still far from fully understood. What we do know is that the magnetic field may be connected to magma fields below the surface of the Earth so that changes to the field from celestial sources may lead to corresponding changes in magma flows. It is no coincidence that when high Solar winds cause severe geomagnetic storms there is almost always an increase in volcanic activity. Hence we believe that below ground activity with tectonic plates is heavily influenced by celestial phenomenon and also the different phases of the Earth’s orbit around the Sun which in turn cause turbulent volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.

Colossal effects just becoming known.

In data released from NASA it was revealed that the magnitude 9 earthquake that devastated the Indian Ocean also had measurable effects on the shape of the Earth and also the length of each day. According to NASA the effects of this Earthquake were to say the least “not usual”. It shifted Earth’s mean North Pole, slightly altered the shape of the planet, and again slightly decreased the length of each day making the Earth spin just a little faster.

For the whole of this amazing story please turn to the following link:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2005/10jan_earthquake. htm?list142035

Obvious celestial link.

In our main feature which followed the December catastrophe we explained a likely link between the Tsunami disaster and celestial activity involving the Full Moon at Apogee just days after the Winter Solstice. Incredibly this latest South East Asian disaster also reveals a clear link to celestial forces. March 28th was just days after the Full Moon - five days from perigee (when the Earth is closest to the Moon)  and only a week after the Spring Equinox. In addition it came at the culmination of a series of very powerful planetary alignments. This involved the close alignment of the Sun, Mercury, Venus, the Earth, the Moon, and Jupiter. In other words an incredible alignment involving around 75% of the most powerful bodies in the Solar System.

At natures mercy.

As much as anything this earthquake confirms yet again that when the planets and the Moon align in a certain way at delicate and important times of the year we become more prone to the devastating forces of the natural world. Forces not defined by the upper limits of any human devised scale, but ones that operate to an arbitrary set of natural principles that take no regard of human plight and suffering and once again show just how vulnerable we really are.

http://www.nasca.org.uk/Asian_disaster/New_Asian/new_asian.html




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Offline chimera

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #38 on: 09/05/2005 17:26:57 »
Andrew, that's interesting, but also copyrighted material from another site. Not so nice, especially not if it creates trouble for NakedScientist...

http://www.nasca.org.uk/Asian_disaster/New_Asian/new_asian.html

The living are the dead on holiday.  -- Maurice de Maeterlinck (1862-1949)
 

Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #39 on: 09/05/2005 18:21:49 »
I notice that the first three links on the NASCA site are Atlantis, Polar Reversal (Earth flipping over), and time travel???  Sounds like their science may be a bit creative.
Using two or three incidents out of thousands to draw conclusions is statistically meaningless.  Sort of like walking up to the edge of a large forest, spotting two elm trees and deciding that all the trees in the forest are elms.  There is good earthquake data going back at least 20 years- look at all magnitude 6+ earthquakes and compare their timing to moon phases before drawing too many conclusions.

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #40 on: 14/05/2005 15:44:13 »
http://www.astro.oma.be/ICET/icetdb/7_41.html

The above link shows a fair amount of research has been conducted into this subject.

Your data is interesting and I think with a little refinement to include only locations around equatorial regions it would show a different pattern.

Andrew

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Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #41 on: 19/09/2005 16:18:04 »
Just noticed that the tide has gone out much further than usual when taking dogs for a walk. The last time I saw this I made a prediction of either an earthquake or a volcanic erruption within 8 days of the event. I have been correct on numerous occasions so we shall have to wait and see whether the moon influences these events.

Andrew K Fletcher

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Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #42 on: 28/09/2005 19:14:28 »
Looks like I was wrong about the full moon this time, but did notice a large rumbeling noise coming from my stomach.

However, just found the following, which might interest a few of you.

Can the Moon Cause Earthquakes?

John Roach
National Geographic News

May 23, 2005
Coast dwellers are accustomed to the daily rhythm of the tides, which are primarily lulled in and out by the gentle gravitational tug of the moon. Some scientists wonder whether the moon's tugging may also influence earthquake activity.

"The same force that raises the 'tides' in the ocean also raises tides in the [Earth's]crust," said Geoff Chester, an astronomer and public affairs officer with the U.S. Naval Observatory in Washington, D.C.


Chester said the tides in the Earth's crust are subtle—on the order of a few centimeters, as opposed to the several-meter ocean tides.

"We live on the crust, so we don't really notice the deviation from what would be sort of the normal form of the geoid," he said. "So the effect is small but nonetheless there."

Full story:

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/05/0523_050523_moonquake.html

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Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #43 on: 08/10/2005 14:01:11 »
Hmmm Partial eclypse Monday October third 2005, followed by massive Earthquake

Hundreds killed in Kashmir quake  
 
Damage is extensive, officials say

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4321490.stm

Now this may be a coincidence but I doubt it.


The quake's impact  
Pakistan says more than 1,000 people may have died in a powerful quake that also hit north India and Afghanistan.
The quake in Kashmir had a magnitude of at least 7.6. The epicentre was 80km (50 miles) north-east of Islamabad.

Pakistan's interior ministry said several villages had been wiped out. A total of 200 are confirmed dead and 600 injured in Indian-administered Kashmir.

Rescuers are trying to reach dozens trapped in a collapsed building.


 


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Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #44 on: 09/10/2005 05:21:25 »
The earthquake also happened at the same time as a coronal ejection from the sun. Coincidence?
Probably not any more coincidence than an earthquake ocurring five days after a full moon.  Simple probability tells us that the odds of an earthquake striking within 8 days of a full moon are about 1/3- so, over time, we should expect that 1/3 of all earthquakes will meet Andrew's hypothesis.

I should think that this discussion belongs in geology, not an E=mc^2 thread?

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #45 on: 09/10/2005 16:24:43 »
Maybe the coronal ejection is also indicative of the full effects from planetary alignment? Further adding to the argument by supporting the theory rather than countering it.

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Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #46 on: 12/10/2005 18:22:54 »
Good that we've finally gotten back to astrophysics- something closer to E=mc^2 with this thread.  I wasn't aware that coronal mass ejections were affected by planetary alingments (not that the planets were particularly aligned at the time).  
What planetary forces do you suppose caused the coronal ejection (gravity, tidal, magnetic...)?

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #47 on: 12/10/2005 21:46:15 »
One possibility is that the countering of the suns gravity by the mass of the earth and moons combined pull, could have influenced the pressure holding the gasses around the sun. This would have to correlate with the alignment allowing for any delay of effect to causal effects that were observed. I admit, I do not have any ideas as to how this could be calculated. If indeed gravity has any delay effect, then this could be a way to measure the speed of gravity, providing we can agree that this is a possibility.

Over to you Bass

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Offline Bass

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #48 on: 12/10/2005 23:21:53 »
Except--
The combined Earth/Moon gravitational pull on the sun is constant - at least if you ignore the fact that the Earth's orbit is not circular (aphelion/perihelion)- given the relative size of the sun and the earth/moon system.
Coronal ejections aren't limited to full or new moons (even with slight delays).

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Offline Andrew K Fletcher

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #49 on: 13/10/2005 13:10:21 »
Then the obvious place to look would be planetary alignments closer to the sun for coronal ejections.

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Re: How important is E=mc^2
« Reply #49 on: 13/10/2005 13:10:21 »

 

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