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Author Topic: How much is the increase in CO2 every year?  (Read 72331 times)

Offline Bored chemist

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #25 on: 26/04/2009 11:32:10 »
Just for a start while it's true that "We found only one place in the whole earth where they dutifully kept track of the CO2 content each year." we didn't bother to look very carefully. There are thousands of CO2 monitors in the world- not least the ones used to check vehicle emmissions.
We usually cite the ones measured in Hawaii because they are unlikely to be infuenced by local events.

You also say that
"The question has now shifted from “How much CO2 is added every year” to “How much is the influence of varying amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere to global warming”.  "

Well, you shifted it by saying
"I have thought about it whole day, but I really, honestly, cannot believe that an increase in the CO2 content of only 70 ppm's (0,007%) since 1960 could possibly be the cause or reason for global warming. That is not it. Impossible. "

In saying that you asserted (without any evidence) the the greenhouse effect of CO2 is not responsible for global warming.
You said that it couldn't be the reason because the change is so small.
In doing so you failed to notice that a change of 0.007 percentage points is a change in total CO2 of roughly a quarter. That's quite a big change.

You put forward the idea that the change is due to the waste heat from industialised society and I pointed out that our direct heating is a drop in the ocean compared to the heat we get from the sun.

You also ask "Why would they not start acting as a mirror outward to keep the heat out? "
Well, I don't know about you but I wouldn't make a mirror out of coal. Do you have any idea what you are talking about?
Do you actually understand the conventional view of the greenhouse effect?
"BC thinks that he can compare the CO2 green house effect with his warm house in the garden. I think this is an over simplification and may also be completely wrong. "
We all know it's a simplification; it may be wrong.
Please provide a better model or an viable alternative reason for the observed heating or shut up about it.

As for things like
"Is it not more logical to blame or partly blame human activity for global warming rather then some or other gas up in the air?  (As proven from Henry’s experiment A )"
I wonder what you think you mean. Have you actually done the experiment?
If not this should be relabeled as "Henry's uninformed guess A" which doesn't, of course, prove anything.

Also re "I don’t think the CO2 is like a “film” in the air."
Nobody said it was; do you not realise that the peopple here are very good at spotting strawmen and will just point out that, if you have to resort to logical fallacies to make your point then that point can't be very good?




« Last Edit: 26/04/2009 11:33:50 by Bored chemist »
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #26 on: 26/04/2009 19:02:04 »
If something has not (yet) been proven to me (i.e. that CO2 is in fact to blame for global warming), I have to take a point of view that makes more sense to me. Please read experiment A again. It is about proving that if you add more energy to a vessel, you will note an increase of the temperature in that vessel. Surely I donot actually have to perform Experiment A to know what will happen? The result of that Experiment A already proves to me that heat/fire/transport/ warming activities caused by humans may have some % influence on global warming. So, I already have proven my point. I just don't know by how much %. Now, because of that, I don't think I am the one who has to shut up....  I just hope we can find someone who can come to us with measured evidence that proves CO2 is to blame, and maybe get some figures from (an) actual experiment(s).Otherwise there is still experiments B, C and D...
 

Offline Bored chemist

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #27 on: 26/04/2009 20:33:45 »
Sod this pointless argument. Let's take a planet and add lots of CO2 to the armosphere and see if the temperature goes up.
OK, done that. It did. End of debate.
Any argument that the process of generating the CO2 also generated some heat is a distraction because we know that the heat added is tiny compared to that added by the sun.
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #28 on: 27/04/2009 05:46:03 »
Poor BC. We gave him a hard time. I hope we don't need a whole planet to either prove or disprove Henry's theory. I have done some thinking about what might happen if we do experiment 4. I think we might be in for a big surprise. I think we might find that G-E  and H-F is <0. In other words, I think we might find that the CO2 causes a cooling effect rather then a warming effect. How do I come to this belief? BC also mentioned this and most chemists know this, namely that CO2 absorbs in the infra red region. What does this mean exactly? It actually means that it blocks the infra red. (in a similar way, this was the reason why I chose KBr to introduce infra red into the vessel because I knew that the glass of the vessel would block most of the IR).  So this being the case, if CO2 blocks IR then this probably happens in a similar way as ozone blocks UV. (IR is the hot radiation, UV is the cold radiation). So therefore, if CO2 blocks IR, if anything, it should protect us from more heat coming in, rather then the other way around. So if we do this experiment, and if we have a fan, and if we release identical amounts of IR energy as were released in experiment 3, it could well be that we see the CO2 blocking some IR energy from coming into the vessel.
So now, come on BC, why not simply admit that we won't know for sure one way or the other, unless we do the tests?   
 

paul.fr

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #29 on: 27/04/2009 06:55:10 »
Henry, your original questin asks "How much is the increase in CO2 every year". Here are figures for the Annual Mean Growth Rate at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
year  ppm/yr

1959   0.95
1960   0.51
1961   0.95
1962   0.69
1963   0.73
1964   0.29
1965   0.98
1966   1.23
1967   0.75
1968   1.02
1969   1.34
1970   1.02
1971   0.82
1972   1.76
1973   1.18
1974   0.78
1975   1.10
1976   0.91
1977   2.09
1978   1.31
1979   1.68
1980   1.80
1981   1.43
1982   0.72
1983   2.16
1984   1.37
1985   1.24
1986   1.51
1987   2.33
1988   2.09
1989   1.27
1990   1.31
1991   1.02
1992   0.43
1993   1.35
1994   1.90
1995   1.98
1996   1.19
1997   1.96
1998   2.93
1999   0.94
2000   1.74
2001   1.59
2002   2.56
2003   2.29
2004   1.57
2005   2.56
2006   1.69
2007   2.17
2008   1.66

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

This is a link to NOAA's Earth System Research Lab (ESRL), and their carbon tracker.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/carbontracker/

This link is for the GMD Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases Group (CCGG)
Quote
The NOAA ESRL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases group makes ongoing discrete measurements from land and sea surface sites and aircraft, and continuous measurements from baseline observatories and tall towers. These measurements document the spatial and temporal distributions of carbon-cycle gases and provide essential constraints to our understanding of the global carbon cycle.


You say "My proposal is that we must agree to a number of standard places on earth where we measure the CO2 and O2 content".
Well, NOAA has a  network of five global baseline observatories and about 100 global cooperative sampling sites extends from the high Arctic to the South Pole. Samples are also taken at five-degree latitude intervals from three oceanic ship routes. A Baltic ferry line collects samples as it makes its daily crossing. All samples are sent to Boulder for analysis and comparison with NOAA's world standards for the gases. So we already do have those standard places.

This last link from ESRI is for THE NOAA ANNUAL GREENHOUSE GAS INDEX (AGGI)
NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, R/GMD, 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80305-3328
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/

Have a look around their pages, you will learn all you should need to know.

Again I repeat this
Quote
I hope you will agree with me that it is time to de-mystify some of the aspects of 'global warming'ť and come up with some real figures and facts, from exact measurements

It is not mystifying if you know the science and are willing to listen to people. There are facts and figures if you are willing to look for them or accept the help and assistance of others, bitching and name calling will get you nowhere.
More when I have the time...
 

paul.fr

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #30 on: 27/04/2009 06:56:22 »
Sod this pointless argument. Let's take a planet and add lots of CO2 to the armosphere and see if the temperature goes up.
OK, done that. It did. End of debate.
Any argument that the process of generating the CO2 also generated some heat is a distraction because we know that the heat added is tiny compared to that added by the sun.


This is why I rarely bother with climate cahnge discussions here. They just don't want to listen, and always know better.
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #31 on: 27/04/2009 07:50:25 »
Paul, we have already noted that about 70 ppm's of CO2 have been added to the atmosphere since 1960. The only thing that is lacking is any proof (from physical measurements) that CO2 is to blame for global warming.Do you have this proof? BC thinks that human activity (including transport, wars, fires, gas-, coal-, wood- and oil burning etc.) add little energy to the earth's atmosphere. I disagree. I also think that maybe CO2 has nothing to do with global warming or that it might even be good - as it blocks IR radiation. But now it seems no one has has done any tests. 
 

Offline Bored chemist

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #32 on: 27/04/2009 08:09:59 »
Measuring the IR absorbtion of CO2 is a physical measuremnt, why do you keep ignoring it?
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #33 on: 27/04/2009 08:52:32 »
Yes, and during this physical measurement we throw a beam of IR onto the C-O bond, and the instrument measures the reflection and tells us that the IR absorbs (C-O blocks the IR beam). So if infra red radiation from outside falls onto CO2 a similar thing must happen, i.e. the CO2 is blocking the IR (although only partially) similar to the UV being blocked by O3.
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #34 on: 27/04/2009 09:52:58 »
look, I cannot believe that there have been no environmental studies done that prove that CO2 is to blame for global warming, other then someone saying: oh, it must be that, because that's the only thing that it can be. Surely, CO2 has been in the air forever. In fact, if it was not for CO2 there would be no supper for us tonight.... Would the good Lord make CO2 if it was bad for us? But anyway, let us please just prove it one way or the other.
 

paul.fr

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #35 on: 27/04/2009 10:46:16 »
Henry, the topic question has been answered, the rest of the posts on this topic are all over the place, there are too many questions and no form to the way the discussion is going. You also fail to explain why you think what you do, and fail to cite references or articles you have read.

I also find the 2,5 ppm's (= 2,5 milligrams per kilo air) much lower than expected. Difficult yet to imagine that a change this small can have such a serious influence on the climate.
What were you expecting? and what were those expectations based on?

I have thought about it whole day, but I really, honestly, cannot believe that an increase in the CO2 content of only 70 ppm's (0,007%) since 1960 could possibly be the cause or reason for global warming. That is not it. Impossible.

What are you basing you imposibilities on?
But they are not the only cause or reason for global warming, they play a part in enhansing the greenhouse effect and a role in climate feedback loops.
OK, let’s sum up what we got on my original question. We found only one place in the whole earth where they dutifully kept track of the CO2 content each year..

wrong.

The question has now shifted from “How much CO2 is added every year” to “How much is the influence of varying amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere to global warming”

You shifted the conversation. I would suggest that once the initial question has been answered, you open up another topic of discussion to keep them seperate, clearer and lees jumbled up. This may encourage others to post, and will make the whole mess easier to read and follow.

If you are willing to do this then this conversation may continue, if not then I will not continue to get a headache trying to follow it. In the meantime may I suggest you have a read through this book:

http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10850&page=1

and here are a few links you may also wish to check out:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/aboutcdiac.html
http://www.academicinfo.net/environstwarming.html
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #36 on: 27/04/2009 11:35:17 »
Dear Paul, you are also ducking and diving and not really answering my question. I serve no other interest then my own curiosity. I cannot quote anyone because I am not familiar in this field, I am just a retired chemist. But I think what we discuss here is important, as wrong policies maybe formed because scientists have not done a good job.  I think everyone is on the bandwagon blaming CO2 for global warming, yet no one here could convince me from actual measured evidence that it is bad.. But thanks for your advice& I agree that we must start a new question. I did post a new question.
 

Offline dentstudent

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #37 on: 27/04/2009 11:51:10 »
Here is perhaps some useful background reading:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/308/5727/1431
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #38 on: 27/04/2009 13:08:59 »
Not to clear to me, as a layman. But I have posed the question to the author. Just remember: I never denied that global heating is happening. Note that they form their forecasts on global warming on measurements of the oceans, which is correct. But then they blame (amongst others) CO2 - of which it is not clear where they get that "evidence" from.It seems it is just assumed that everyone believes this?
 

Offline dentstudent

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #39 on: 27/04/2009 13:38:27 »
I don't think that it's a question of apportioning blame to a single cause, ie, CO2. Firstly, of course in science, there is no such thing as "proof". All decisions are based on a body of evidence, of which there is plenty that CO2 is a GHG and contributes to GCC. Secondly, CO2 is seen as perhaps the "easiest" to remedy through reductions in energy consumption / storage / public awareness. Thirdly, the time that CO2 is active in the atmosphere as a GHG is considerably longer than some other GHGs like Methane, and so it is of greater importance to make sure that it doesn't get there in the first place.

I think that it is quite clear from the evidence that CO2 contributes to GCC as a GHG and that a reasonable response to this is to make efforts to reduce its release.
 

Offline dentstudent

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #40 on: 27/04/2009 13:39:57 »
I did post a new question.

I don't see it....
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #41 on: 27/04/2009 14:49:11 »
I did e-mail the question to Chris. I suppose we will have to wait and see if they put it on? I have also posed same question to other people who seem to have done work on global warming.THANKS!
 

Offline dentstudent

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #42 on: 27/04/2009 14:57:48 »
You are able to start your own topic in an appropriate area of the forum without Chris if you wish. Just go to the proper subject area and click "New Topic" and you can post your own question. Just make sure that it's in the form of a question, otherwise the mods get all tetchy.

*Waves at mods  [:X]*
 

Offline Bored chemist

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #43 on: 27/04/2009 20:39:10 »
Henry, your "experiment 3." shows that you simply don't understand the theory.
In that experiment you propose heating an object using IR. The point about the greenhouse effect is that the energy arrives as visible light (which goes through the CO2)and is absorbed by the ground which heats up. The ground then tries to lose heat by IR radiation but some of that radiation is trapped because the CO2 absorbs it. The only way it can lose the heat is to get slightly hotter.
None of this is rocket science.
 

Offline Henry Pool

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #44 on: 28/04/2009 04:40:34 »
I think I know where you are going with this. My (thought) experiment 3 & 4 was designed to similate sunshine coming in. Undeniably, I think I would have been able to prove that CO2 causes a cooling effect. However, you and others want us to look what happens to IR that is already in, looking from the inside out? Thereby ignoring the initial cooling effect? Let us continue this discussion on the new topic (since we strayed too far from the original question)   
 

Offline Bored chemist

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How much is the increase in CO2 every year?
« Reply #45 on: 28/04/2009 08:08:21 »
There is no cooling effect. The absorbtion of radiation doesn't make things go cold.
 

Offline Henry Pool

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"carbon emissions" are often blamed as the greatest culprit for global warming. But is this really true? How can we be sure about this? What about energy coming from increased sun activity? What about increased salinity of the ocean, does that not trap heat? What about increased volcanic activity, going on underneath the seabed, that we cannot even see happening? What about energy from human activities - e.g.all these Abombs and rockets? &.......(fill in)
 

Offline Matthew

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If you compare the normal rate of global temperature fluctuations over the past hundreds of years compared to the natural temperature increases, there is little difference. However, what we call the "global arch" indicates a humanitarian contribution to global temperatures, an impact the planet cannot necessarily reverse easily. As a student, I have few expertise with regards to our nearest star, the sun, although I suppose the level of thermal radiation remains relatively constant although, human activities which you mentioned are evidently a problem. CO2 emissions are causing the upper layers of the atmosphere to trap heat reflected off the surface of the Earth - maximising the greenhouse effect.
You are correct to assume increase volcanic activity could result in rapid global changes although, following 6 months of volcanic eruptions, the earth manages to restore normal natural temperatures. At the moment, in spite of past eruptions, we experience a low level of volcanic activity which again, is no different thousands of years ago to the present day.
You must consider the human arch where temperature changes most probably result due to human output.
The human arch in more detail is the curve or human line of global average temperatures over the last 50-100 years compared with the natural arch or steady curve. Here, with more information, we can calculate the average human input to global changes - which to the present day is low although every point of a degree is terribly significant and can affect specific species of unknown species dramatically.
« Last Edit: 18/06/2009 17:25:57 by Matthew »
 

Offline Make it Lady

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Don't go abroad on holiday, buy local seasonal food and become a vegetarian. If you do these three things you will save the planet. Yes co2 emissions are a biggy in global warming but they don't have to be. Remember a 4x4 driving vegetarian uses less carbon than a meat eating bus user!
 

Offline Don_1

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"Remember a 4x4 driving vegetarian uses less carbon than a meat eating bus user!"

Well said MiL. CO2 pollution is not as clear cut as most would have us believe. In fact, that goes for all pollutants.
 

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