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Author Topic: Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?  (Read 24232 times)

Offline AllenG

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« on: 27/04/2009 08:25:18 »

Purple tags are confirmed, pink are suspected cases, dots indicate a death.
Google Map of the Outbreak

"Responding to what some health officials feared could be the leading edge of a global pandemic emerging from Mexico, American health officials declared a public health emergency on Sunday as 20 cases of swine flu were confirmed in this country, including eight in New York City."
Source:By DONALD G. McNEIL Jr. Published: April 26, 2009

Is that as scary as it sounds?
« Last Edit: 27/04/2009 08:29:18 by AllenG »


 

Offline Chemistry4me

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #1 on: 27/04/2009 09:05:21 »
I certainly hope not.
 

Offline Karen W.

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #2 on: 27/04/2009 09:18:38 »

The news here earlier said we have had 7 cases in California already as of earlier today! It sounds horrible so far!
 

Offline Karen W.

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #3 on: 27/04/2009 09:37:14 »
 updated 15 minures ago:

1,614 sick in Mexico

13 suspected in New Zealand

20 Confirmed in USA.

7 Confirmed in California

6 in Canada

1 confirmed in spain and 7 suspected

1 suspected in France

1      "           "  Israel

1      "           "  Brazil

« Last Edit: 27/04/2009 16:37:27 by Karen W. »
 

Offline Don_1

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #4 on: 27/04/2009 10:17:04 »
Quote from: BBC
Two people are still undergoing tests in Lanarkshire after returning from Mexico with "mild" flu-like symptoms.

 

Offline JimBob

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #5 on: 27/04/2009 16:08:28 »
I am glad I am somewhat reclusive.
 

Offline AllenG

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #6 on: 27/04/2009 18:59:37 »
On top of it all, Mexico was just hit with an earthquake.


 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #7 on: 27/04/2009 19:44:35 »
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.
 

Offline Bored chemist

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #8 on: 27/04/2009 20:43:59 »
With just a couple of thousand cases we are possible at the start of a pandemic, but we are not anywher near the midst of it yet.
The WHO have some more data about it here.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html
 

blakestyger

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #9 on: 27/04/2009 22:29:22 »
The WHO have some more data about it here.

Went off them after that guitarist was suspected of being a paedo'. [:0]
 

Offline JimBob

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #10 on: 27/04/2009 23:28:14 »
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.

The mortality rate is the same as any other flu. Over 36,000 people die in the US every year from the existing strains of the flu. As of yet, this swine flu is as yet to be determined to be as horrible as it is presented in the media.

FOG!


I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.
 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #11 on: 27/04/2009 23:50:21 »
I'm just trying to dig out some research on this particuar strain of 'flu but so far I am not finding much  ??? I will ask my lecturer tomorrow as she is an immunologist.
We have been awating a pandemic for a long time, the last real scare (apart from H5N1) was in 1976, with another flare up of Spanish/Swine 'flu, the panic that ensued resulted in a mad hunt for a vaccine, of which one company made to the wrong virus!!! But the pharmaceutical companies were not silly, they pressed for immunity knowing that rushing to make and test a vaccine was a risky business. It proved a wise move as the American government pushed through trying to vaccinate people, resulting in some deaths, and other people developing Guillian-Barre.
However as this is swine 'flu, it will be an H1N1 type, or close variant of, and as such it will have been seen before in the population and the majority of people with have has exposure and immunity. To really get a pandemic going you need a different H and N conformation, or a particuary lethal strain such as the one of 1918.

Where is Dr Chris when you need him??
« Last Edit: 28/04/2009 00:05:00 by Variola »
 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #12 on: 27/04/2009 23:52:00 »
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.

The mortality rate is the same as any other flu. Over 36,000 people die in the US every year from the existing strains of the flu. As of yet, this swine flu is as yet to be determined to be as horrible as it is presented in the media.

FOG!


I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.

The mortality rate is the same as any other flu. Over 36,000 people die in the US every year from the existing strains of the flu. As of yet, this swine flu is as yet to be determined to be as horrible as it is presented in the media.

FOG!


I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.


If a few apostrophes is the best you can do.....tut
 

Offline turnipsock

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #13 on: 28/04/2009 00:07:02 »
are you sure the 'dots' mean a death? The two people in the Monklands hospital are still alive and only showing minor symptoms according to the imparcial BBC.

I guess this is what happens when we start harvesting organs from pigs...they get their own back!
 

Offline JimBob

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #14 on: 28/04/2009 00:30:08 »
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.

The mortality rate is the same as any other flu. Over 36,000 people die in the US every year from the existing strains of the flu. As of yet, this swine flu is as yet to be determined to be as horrible as it is presented in the media.

FOG!


I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.
I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.

The mortality rate is the same as any other flu. Over 36,000 people die in the US every year from the existing strains of the flu. As of yet, this swine flu is as yet to be determined to be as horrible as it is presented in the media.

FOG!


I suspect this may well be the pandemic we have been overdue for for so long, and the panic is that it is swine 'flu again, the same family that caused the H1N1 pandemic of 1918.
However I dont think the mortality rate is that high, from what I have seen on the news. I will have to do some digging and trawling on the net, but I heard mention somewhere of 100 cases where people have died if thousands have been infected thats not a high mortality rate. We have much better medical technology now to combat the symptoms of the disease, and we also have antimicrobials on our side. So that could be the reason for the low mortality rate, or it could be thast the strain itself isnt that pathogenic, and only really causes problems in infirm or immunosupressed people.


If a few apostrophes is the best you can do.....tut

Are you so old you can't see the screen? You quoted me TWICE before putting your useless remark in.

A FOG is a FOG. It is nit-picking by definition. The smaller the nit, the greater the FOG! You don't really get it, do you?

See http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=18900.0

Please note the word "slightest."
 

lyner

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #15 on: 28/04/2009 01:14:38 »
Is there any reason why a new, highly infectious, virus should also make people very ill?
 

Offline JimBob

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #16 on: 28/04/2009 02:18:00 »
The problem seems not to be in the US. No one has died here. But as I said, 36,000 die every year from flu strains already in existence.

There was a swine flue epidemic in the 70's that was bad as well. It killed a lot of people here. I had it myself and it was bad.
 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #17 on: 28/04/2009 08:10:43 »
Quote
Are you so old you can't see the screen? You quoted me TWICE before putting your useless remark in.

We most old folk need things repeated to them so I thought I would help you out  :P
 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #18 on: 28/04/2009 08:22:19 »
Is there any reason why a new, highly infectious, virus should also make people very ill?

It depends on its pathogenicity and utationrate. The initial outbreak in 1918 of H1N1 wasn't too bad, it did kill people but it was nothing compared to the strain that reappeared in the Autumn. People were dying very quickly, hours rather than days. This swine 'flu is the same family H1N1 but at the moment it appears to be a nasty 'flu that just happens to be quite infections, as most influenza's are. But the H1N1 isn't new in immunological terms so the population as a whole has 'seen' it before, hence he infection rate isn't as high as it could be, especially in comparison to 1918.

The government are going to set up a 'flu helpline, where you can ring in and get advice if you think you have swine 'flu.Gee..what a help!!

Lol just seen on the news that The Express has the headline "KILLER FLU IS HERE"....nice to keep a sense of perspective!!!
 

Offline Don_1

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #19 on: 28/04/2009 08:49:32 »
Quote from: BBC
Two people are still undergoing tests in Lanarkshire after returning from Mexico with "mild" flu-like symptoms.


These two cases have been confirmed, but the patients are reported as responding well to treatment. A number of people, with whom this couple had contact, said to be suffering 'mild flu like symptoms, are being monitored.

The health minister has pointed out that the UK has a stockpile of Tamiflu, left over from the Bird Flu scare, sufficient for 33 million treatments.
 

Offline BenV

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #20 on: 28/04/2009 09:17:11 »
However as this is swine 'flu, it will be an H1N1 type, or close variant of, and as such it will have been seen before in the population and the majority of people with have has exposure and immunity. To really get a pandemic going you need a different H and N conformation, or a particuary lethal strain such as the one of 1918.
I get the impression that this is effectively a human h1n1 wrapped in pig surface antigens.  This means that even prior exposure to human h1n1 will offer no protection...

Quote
Where is Dr Chris when you need him??
All over the media, talking about swine 'flu!
 

Offline BenV

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #21 on: 28/04/2009 14:22:13 »
 

Offline Karen W.

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #22 on: 28/04/2009 18:43:19 »
LOL...LO..LOL.. PRETTY FUNNY Ben!
 

Variola

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #23 on: 28/04/2009 19:17:58 »
Quote
get the impression that this is effectively a human h1n1 wrapped in pig surface antigens.  This means that even prior exposure to human h1n1 will offer no protection

Really??? But if it has been in human cells,enough to cause person-person transmission, which it has done, then surely it should be coated with human epitopes??
And if it has the same H1N1 conformation, then the body should recognise the virus when its flagged up on the host cell surface??

Actually that may not be right at all...If its a mutated mix, as is being suggested on the news etc then there might not be the aqquired immunity to it...although most A types have been seen in the population....I think..I'll just argue with myself until someone puts me right!!!
Although it is spreading, its virulence still doesn't appear that great considering its potential pool of hosts, no more that seasonal 'flu really.which I am guessing means its transmission rate isn't that good, or that there is some immunity???
 Plus most people who have had the virus have had either mold symptoms, or the usual unpleasant symptoms of seasonall flu, very few people have died in comparison to numbers infected.
I think the real risk will be if it re-emerges with a stronger pathogenicity or virulence.

NB I reserve to right to change my mind about that though!!!! Or argue with myself again!
 

Offline Bored chemist

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
« Reply #24 on: 28/04/2009 19:59:43 »
Is there any reason why a new, highly infectious, virus should also make people very ill?

Sort of.
If you are a virus with a very high mortality rate you tend to kill your host before they pass you on to another victim. That means you are not likey to get to be an old virus, so you must be a new one.
 

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Are we in the midst of a Swine Flu Pandemic?
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