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Author Topic: how long until yellowstone erupts?  (Read 13168 times)

Offline christian

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how long until yellowstone erupts?
« on: 20/08/2005 20:47:58 »
how long?
« Last Edit: 14/05/2009 13:26:17 by BenV »


 

Offline neilep

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #1 on: 20/08/2005 22:40:22 »
Hi Christian...welcome to thw site,we have in fact discussed this before. Check this link http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=1491  cheers...Neil


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Offline Razor

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #2 on: 21/08/2005 01:10:28 »
it's about 40,000 years overdue but dont worry, all it needs is a stray nuke from russia or china or even the country itself and BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!
No more North America, no more Canada, no more UK.
And hey, it may just start a chain reaction with the other 24 Super Volcanoes as well, i just cant wait to die!!

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Offline Bass

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #3 on: 22/08/2005 19:38:49 »
No sign of imminent eruption- we're probably several thousand years away at a minimum.  Living on Yellowstone's doorstep in Montana, I still manage to sleep well at night.
The 600K year average for eruptions is taken from only the last three eruptions- I wouldn't put much stock in the fact that we are "overdue".

Prediction is difficult, especially the future.  -Niels Bohr
 

lindsayle19

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #4 on: 30/04/2009 08:18:33 »
When will Yellowstone erupt again?

    We do not know. Future volcanic eruptions could occur within or near Yellowstone National Park for the simple reason that the area has a long volcanic history and because there is hot and molten rock, or magma, beneath the caldera now. Yellowstone is monitored for signs of volcanic activity by YVO scientists who detect earthquakes using seismographs and ground motion using GPS (Global Positioning System). YVO has not detected signs of activity that suggest an eruption is imminent.

    The crust of North America continuously moves southwest over the Yellowstone hotspot as the Earth’s crust stretches above it, promoting the ascent of heat and molten rock. These processes produce basaltic magmas within the Earth’s mantle, which rise into the overlying crust and continue to heat the rocks beneath Yellowstone, maintaining and possibly adding to the rhyolite magma in the crust above.

    Yellowstone’s 2-million-year history of volcanism, the copious amount of heat that still flows from the ground, the frequent earthquakes, and the repeated uplift and subsidence of the caldera floor also testify to the continuity of magmatic processes beneath Yellowstone and point to the possibility of future volcanism and earthquake activity.
« Last Edit: 30/04/2009 13:11:32 by BenV »
 

Offline Don_1

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #5 on: 30/04/2009 08:37:05 »
Who knows how long it will be before it erupts again. As has been said, it could be a few years, a few hundred years or even a few thousand years, but I don't think its imminent. If it were, you might notice the rich and powerful scurrying to build fallout shelters in the safest locations. I would think it will give a loud burp or two to let us know its about to break wind seriously.
 

Offline tangoblue

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #6 on: 30/04/2009 12:09:22 »
it's about 40,000 years overdue but dont worry, all it needs is a stray nuke from russia or china or even the country itself and BOOOOOOOOOOOOM!!!!!!!!!!!!
No more North America, no more Canada, no more UK.
And hey, it may just start a chain reaction with the other 24 Super Volcanoes as well, i just cant wait to die!!

-----------------------
"We apologize for the error in last week's paper
In which we stated that Mr. Arnold Dogbody was a defective in the police force. We meant, of course, that Mr. Dogbody is a detective in the police farce."
-Correction notice in the Ely Standard, a British newspaper

For those who haven't seen this yet, it's a must view!!!!
CHECK IT OUT!!!!

http://www.ebaumsworld.com/presaddress2.shtml

Also:
http://www.svspower.com/
For Dodge Viper Fans.

What do you mean you cannot wait to die, are you suicidal!
 

Offline JimBob

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #7 on: 30/04/2009 15:50:11 »
I will take the word of our hard rock guru, Bass, a very excellent geologist who lives in the immediate vicinity of Yellowstone. He has lived with and studied the problem for a while so knows it intimately. His opinion is already posted, above.

As he is frozen solid and unable to dig out from under the 5 feet of snow that is covering him - it is almost May! - and also has yet to have his morning coffee, I will venture to say he is not worried. Period. This opinion takes into account that the Yellowstone hotspot has been around for a LONG time, for the last 17 million years, and is not necessarily due to deep mantle processes.

An abstract:

Fundamental features of the geology and tectonic setting of the
northeast-propagating Yellowstone hotspot are not explained by a
simple deep-mantle plume hypothesis and, within that framework,
must be attributed to coincidence or be explained by auxiliary hypotheses.
These features include the persistence of basaltic magmatism
along the hotspot track, the origin of the hotspot during a
regional middle Miocene tectonic reorganization, a similar and coeval
zone of northwestward magmatic propagation, the occurrence
of both zones of magmatic propagation along a first-order tectonic
boundary, and control of the hotspot track by preexisting structures.
Seismic imaging provides no evidence for, and several contraindications
of, a vertically extensive plume-like structure beneath
Yellowstone or a broad trailing plume head beneath the
eastern Snake River Plain. The high helium isotope ratios observed
at Yellowstone and other hotspots are commonly assumed to arise
from the lower mantle, but upper-mantle processes can explain the
observations. The available evidence thus renders an upper-mantle
origin for the Yellowstone system the preferred model; there is no
evidence that the system extends deeper than ~200 km, and some
evidence that it does not. A model whereby the Yellowstone system
reflects feedback between upper-mantle convection and regional
lithospheric tectonics is able to explain the observations better than
a deep-mantle plume hypothesis.

abst. "Upper-mantle origin of the Yellowstone hotspot"

Robert L. Christiansen - USGS
G.R. Foulger - Uni.Durham, UK
John R. Evans - USGS

So there is some discussion as to whether the Y.H.S. is what it had traditionally been interpreted to be.

 
 

Offline Bass

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #8 on: 30/04/2009 23:37:12 »
I will take the word of our hard rock guru, Bass... As he is frozen solid and unable to dig out from under the 5 feet of snow that is covering him - it is almost May! - and also has yet to have his morning coffee, I will venture to say he is not worried. Period.

BRRRRRrrrrrr!! It's too freekin' cold to be worried.  Sitting here waiting to be rescued by a St. Bernard- actually waiting for his small cask of brandy ;D.  I think the wind is finally dying down to a howl...

JimBob is right- no reason for concern, Yellowstone still showing no unusual activity.


Quote
This opinion takes into account that the Yellowstone hotspot has been around for a LONG time, for the last 17 million years, and is not necessarily due to deep mantle processes.

An abstract:

Fundamental features of the geology and tectonic setting of the
northeast-propagating Yellowstone hotspot are not explained by a
simple deep-mantle plume hypothesis and, within that framework,
must be attributed to coincidence or be explained by auxiliary hypotheses.
These features include the persistence of basaltic magmatism
along the hotspot track, the origin of the hotspot during a
regional middle Miocene tectonic reorganization, a similar and coeval
zone of northwestward magmatic propagation, the occurrence
of both zones of magmatic propagation along a first-order tectonic
boundary, and control of the hotspot track by preexisting structures.
Seismic imaging provides no evidence for, and several contraindications
of, a vertically extensive plume-like structure beneath
Yellowstone or a broad trailing plume head beneath the
eastern Snake River Plain. The high helium isotope ratios observed
at Yellowstone and other hotspots are commonly assumed to arise
from the lower mantle, but upper-mantle processes can explain the
observations. The available evidence thus renders an upper-mantle
origin for the Yellowstone system the preferred model; there is no
evidence that the system extends deeper than ~200 km, and some
evidence that it does not. A model whereby the Yellowstone system
reflects feedback between upper-mantle convection and regional
lithospheric tectonics is able to explain the observations better than
a deep-mantle plume hypothesis.

abst. "Upper-mantle origin of the Yellowstone hotspot"

Robert L. Christiansen - USGS
G.R. Foulger - Uni.Durham, UK
John R. Evans - USGS

So there is some discussion as to whether the Y.H.S. is what it had traditionally been interpreted to be.

This has been hotly debated for the past decade- I still tend to favor the deep mantle model, but the shallow mantle plume hypothesis fits some observations better- like the mirror image of the YSRP system- the NW migrating volcanism that is presently located at Newberry Caldera.
 

Offline JimBob

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #9 on: 01/05/2009 00:03:56 »
My dear sir, I am not advocating this, merely pointing out that there is another hypothesis. I too, lean towards the plume theory as the hotspot is fairly close to where the triple junction of the subducted plats of the Faralon, Juan de Fuca and Pacific plates would be presently. But this is just geologic FOGing.

I would NEVER do that to you, Bass.
 

Offline JimBob

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #10 on: 01/05/2009 00:10:02 »

BRRRRRrrrrrr!! It's too freekin' cold to be worried. 


FOG - freAkin'

decade-
better-
system-

FOG -  proper form is XXXX, i.e.,  The word - space, the hyphen

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Re: how long until yellowstone erupts?
« Reply #10 on: 01/05/2009 00:10:02 »

 

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