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When do you think the first commercial fusion reactor will go on-line? Please vote.

In 25 years
3 (25%)
In 50 years
3 (25%)
In 100 years
2 (16.7%)
In 250 years
2 (16.7%)
In 500 years
1 (8.3%)
Never
1 (8.3%)

Total Members Voted: 12

Voting closed: 22/05/2010 06:35:32

Author Topic: When will we get fusion power?  (Read 7164 times)

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« on: 20/02/2010 17:05:08 »
What do you think? Please cast your vote.
« Last Edit: 20/02/2010 17:14:18 by Geezer »


 

Offline flr

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #1 on: 20/02/2010 18:06:09 »
250y.
 

Offline syhprum

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #2 on: 20/02/2010 21:01:50 »
I think it a rather ridiculous idea, I do not think that they could ever be a usefull source of power
 

Offline namaan

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #3 on: 21/02/2010 03:20:38 »
I find it interesting to find the much more so realistic numbers for the number of years...unlike certain sci movies that would likely peddle to us the idea of a working fusion reactor in the very near future. This poll might be a pretty good test of how scientific a scientific community actually is.
 

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #4 on: 21/02/2010 03:35:40 »
It's probably a bit premature to say that the votes are statistically significant, but, so far anyway, it does not look like fusion is something we should dump our life savings into.
 

Offline JP

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #5 on: 21/02/2010 06:15:17 »
In 30 years.  Of course, they've been saying that for the past 30 years. :p
 

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #6 on: 21/02/2010 07:03:28 »
In 30 years.  Of course, they've been saying that for the past 30 years. :p

Possibly longer. So, what's your vote?
 

Offline SeanB

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #7 on: 21/02/2010 07:09:56 »
Fusion always appears to be "near break even", although the Bussard approach probably is the best new approach in recent years, just " Needs some more funding". Only one to do fusion without a multi million dollar budget, and looks at least scalable without much in the way of issues.

Of course it seems noone wants to live near a nuclear plant, although I would have no issues, the waste heat will be a nice thing to provide hothouses in cooler climes, and desalinate seawater near the coastlines in drier areas.
 

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #8 on: 21/02/2010 07:27:20 »
Of course it seems noone wants to live near a nuclear plant, although I would have no issues, the waste heat will be a nice thing to provide hothouses in cooler climes, and desalinate seawater near the coastlines in drier areas.

Just watch out for those pesky neutrons.  BTW, where's your vote?
 

Offline JP

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #9 on: 21/02/2010 09:19:39 »
I'm voting 50 years, mostly because of the pace at which technology seems to be accelerating.  There's also a good amount of funded research going on into fusion right now.  However, this also assumes some kind of scientific or technical breakthrough, and it's hard to predict when those will occur.
 

Online Bored chemist

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #10 on: 21/02/2010 10:02:38 »
I find it interesting to find the much more so realistic numbers for the number of years...unlike certain sci movies that would likely peddle to us the idea of a working fusion reactor in the very near future. This poll might be a pretty good test of how scientific a scientific community actually is.
The scientific answer is "I don't know" and that's not an option in the poll.

(OK, if there's someone here actually involved in planning fusion power then they might have a legitimate answer, but for the great bulk of people the answer is "I don't know".)
 

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #11 on: 21/02/2010 18:02:38 »
I find it interesting to find the much more so realistic numbers for the number of years...unlike certain sci movies that would likely peddle to us the idea of a working fusion reactor in the very near future. This poll might be a pretty good test of how scientific a scientific community actually is.
The scientific answer is "I don't know" and that's not an option in the poll.

(OK, if there's someone here actually involved in planning fusion power then they might have a legitimate answer, but for the great bulk of people the answer is "I don't know".)

BC - There are examples where a large number of non-experts have been able to predict more accurately than a small number of experts. There is one that's quite famous, but I can't remember what it is at the moment! Maybe someone else does?
 

Offline neilep

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #12 on: 21/02/2010 19:22:53 »
I voted  but unfortunately ewe failed to give the 'Next Tuesday' option !..instead I plomped for 100 years !
 

Online Bored chemist

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #13 on: 21/02/2010 21:37:49 »
I find it interesting to find the much more so realistic numbers for the number of years...unlike certain sci movies that would likely peddle to us the idea of a working fusion reactor in the very near future. This poll might be a pretty good test of how scientific a scientific community actually is.
The scientific answer is "I don't know" and that's not an option in the poll.

(OK, if there's someone here actually involved in planning fusion power then they might have a legitimate answer, but for the great bulk of people the answer is "I don't know".)

BC - There are examples where a large number of non-experts have been able to predict more accurately than a small number of experts. There is one that's quite famous, but I can't remember what it is at the moment! Maybe someone else does?

I suspect there are also counter examples.
 

Offline syhprum

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #14 on: 22/02/2010 22:16:05 »
http://www.iter.org/Pages/FactsFigures.aspx

This article brims with optimism, it seem that fusion power is just around the corner.
 

Offline Geezer

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #15 on: 23/02/2010 06:32:37 »
Apparently, ITER does not include any means to produce the necessary tritium, so if they do manage to maintain a plasma, they will be dependent on fission reactors to supply tritium.
 

Offline syhprum

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #16 on: 24/02/2010 14:39:21 »
I note that the main magnet of the I.T.E.R maintains a field of 13T and stores 41 Giga Joules, knowing what happened to the LHC I would not like to be around when a Helium leak occurs.
I believe there is a scheme to manufacture Tritium if and when they get it working.
I wonder what the cost of each kWh generated will be ?.
 

Offline yor_on

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #17 on: 24/02/2010 20:57:35 »
I find it interesting to find the much more so realistic numbers for the number of years...unlike certain sci movies that would likely peddle to us the idea of a working fusion reactor in the very near future. This poll might be a pretty good test of how scientific a scientific community actually is.
The scientific answer is "I don't know" and that's not an option in the poll.

(OK, if there's someone here actually involved in planning fusion power then they might have a legitimate answer, but for the great bulk of people the answer is "I don't know".)

BC - There are examples where a large number of non-experts have been able to predict more accurately than a small number of experts. There is one that's quite famous, but I can't remember what it is at the moment! Maybe someone else does?

Yep, when they dropped the atomic bombs in the ocean outside Spain. They had almost given up on finding them when one guy searching put up a sheet on the message board inviting people to guess. What we have to remember is that most of them knew 'something' as they all were more or less associated with the search, at least interacted with those searching. But it worked and as they followed the guidelines from the 'projection made' by 'best guess' the started a search pattern thirty miles (<-?) outside the utmost boundary of where they had thought it to be, according to their former predictions, and also found it there. After that the algorithm, used to describe this, started to be used almost everywhere where people search for something, like the police etc. As I remember reading of it.
==

25 Y hopefully.
« Last Edit: 24/02/2010 20:59:32 by yor_on »
 

Offline yor_on

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #18 on: 28/02/2010 10:31:18 »
Well, reading myself. I didn't mean that we will use it when searching for the police, although it might feel so at times when something happens without a trace of any police being there.

As for those Atomic bombs dropped?
40 y later

And what I think the search method became named as.
 Bayesian search theory and Search games.
As well as this one Search for Lost Objects

What I can't find is what was novel to this search 1966. I read it in a book but the info doesn't come clear on the I-net :( But it had to do with "1. Formulate a number of hypotheses about what happened to the vessel." because it wasn't until they almost had given up on the search they tried it with 'educated, and uneducated, guesses' as I remember it. Strange that those writing about it on the net missed that one?

As I remember it, it also had to do with the 'Monte carlo method'?
Although I'm not entirely sure on that one? It was some time ago I read it..
« Last Edit: 28/02/2010 10:36:18 by yor_on »
 

Offline Good Elf

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #19 on: 28/02/2010 12:22:05 »
Hi Geezer, yor-on, et al,

Seems reasonable to me that the first commercial utilization of fusion energy will be the fusion of Helium 3 from the moon's surface. Other forms of fusion are "more difficult" to obtain such as hydrogen fusion or Bussard's Boron Fusion. Bussard's Boron Fusion idea is currently being researched by the US Navy but it is unlikely to be commercially available in the shorter term ... say within 30 years. I realize that Helium 3 would be difficult to collect and to transfer back to earth but if it were to be done it would be extremely easy to make an aneutronic fusion reactor for that specific isotope. Helium 3 would be an extremely safe substance and it would be "environmentally friendly"  making it popular with the "green fraternity"...

Rather than send men to the moon it is sufficiently close to earth to use telepresence making use of remotely controlled "robots" controlled directly by humans but more sophisticated than the Lunokhod program by the Russians was decades ago in the 1970's. Helium 3 could be returned to earth by use of a rail gun or otherwise a magnetic launcher. There is a two second propagation delay but what could be done at  Earth's end is the creation of a virtual reality mimicking the real environment on the moon. This computer simulation can "edit" the two seconds from the manipulator making the remote use of telepresence feasible as well as practical and "safe" for human use. The country that does it is guaranteed unlimited access to energy .... forever! We could say goodbye to worries about Global Warming by converting to that new source of power. Helium 3 is made in sufficient quantities in Nuclear Reactors to test the system before a system is put in place.

Wikipedia: Helium-3 [nofollow]

For a negative take on the mining of Helium 3 on the moon check out the movie "Moon". That fictional program is not only too ambitions and dangerous... it would also be entirely unnecessary.

Cheers
 

Offline syhprum

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #20 on: 28/02/2010 12:49:55 »
If ever peace breaks out and a means of disposing of the the vast amounts of money spent on wars is needed research into building and fueling Helium 3 power plants would be a good way to get rid of it.
 

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When will we get fusion power?
« Reply #20 on: 28/02/2010 12:49:55 »

 

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