The Naked Scientists

The Naked Scientists Forum

Author Topic: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?  (Read 3429 times)

Offline CZARCAR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
http://www.weatheraction.com/     His site . Anti or pro global warming perspective opinions not wanted= just want reflections as to PC's accuracy especially in the UK.....thanx
click around the site to find his claims as to prior predictions.
« Last Edit: 23/08/2011 11:01:33 by chris »


 


Offline Mazurka

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 510
    • View Profile
Re: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #2 on: 23/08/2011 10:10:19 »
Mr Corbyn is the master of the hindcast.

It is a clever method along the lines of:

1) Devise radical forecasting technique
2) Make vauge forecast
3) include at least one extreme event or "potential" extreme event (to make newsworthy)
4) be geographically vauge
5) analyse forecast after several weeks after the forecasted period
7) claim unprecedented accuracy or describe forecast cleverly to "fit" events
6) profit.
 

Offline CZARCAR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #3 on: 25/08/2011 15:42:50 »
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14637647   i'm not a PC fan but am impressed by the limited media exposure i've received on him
 

Offline Bored chemist

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 8676
  • Thanked: 42 times
    • View Profile
What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #4 on: 26/08/2011 10:43:26 »
His forcasts simply don't seem to be very accurate.
 

Offline CZARCAR

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 686
    • View Profile
What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #5 on: 10/10/2011 11:41:22 »
http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-link-solar-winter-weather-revealed.html   just found this & i think PC's method involves some solar consideration which is unorthodox
 

Offline Mazurka

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 510
    • View Profile
What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #6 on: 10/10/2011 16:53:39 »
What little I know of PC's forecasts are that they are based upon solar activity.  With a little bit more reputable science beheind it, it does appear that solar radiation (particualrly in the UV) can affect temperature distributions, thus effect the weather.

Still does not get around his distressing tendency to hindcast... 
 

The Naked Scientists Forum

What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
« Reply #6 on: 10/10/2011 16:53:39 »

 

SMF 2.0.10 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums