The Naked Scientists

The Naked Scientists Forum

Author Topic: What are the odds  (Read 6800 times)

Offline Hadrian

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2175
  • Scallywag
    • View Profile
What are the odds
« on: 25/05/2006 16:19:02 »
What are the odds of getting  Five Aces (with Joker,AAAAJr)

A 1 in 2,869,685
B 1 in 649,740
c 1 in 52,470

Answers with a one Euro entry fee.

Thanks!


What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.


 

Offline gecko

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 196
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #1 on: 26/05/2006 20:40:58 »
the chances of getting any 5 of the same card like that would be the same chance as 5 aces, right?

ill guess B.
 

Offline Roy P

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #2 on: 26/05/2006 21:37:09 »
A

__________________________________________________________
Roy P
 

Offline Laith

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #3 on: 27/05/2006 01:17:32 »
A

Laith
 

Offline harryneild

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 88
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #4 on: 27/05/2006 17:28:20 »
A (if there is only 1 joker)

"Knowledge has to be improved, challenged, and increased constantly, or it vanishes." Peter F. Drucker
 

Offline DoctorBeaver

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12656
  • Thanked: 3 times
  • A stitch in time would have confused Einstein.
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #5 on: 28/05/2006 08:20:45 »
I made it 0.284972285% just to be awkward :)


Brand new forum at
http://beaverlandforum.y4a.net
More than just science
 

Offline Hadrian

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 2175
  • Scallywag
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #6 on: 28/05/2006 20:52:22 »


A


Well done everyone

:D


What you do speaks so loudly that I cannot hear what you say.
 

Offline Roy P

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #7 on: 29/05/2006 11:56:34 »
What are the odds of being dealt the same hand of 13 cards twice?

__________________________________________________________
Roy P
 

Offline Roy P

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 103
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #8 on: 29/05/2006 11:59:28 »
Actually, that's not good grammar is it!? I'll try again:

What are the odds of being dealt the same hand of 13 cards again?

__________________________________________________________
Roy P
 

Offline DoctorBeaver

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12656
  • Thanked: 3 times
  • A stitch in time would have confused Einstein.
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #9 on: 29/05/2006 14:17:28 »
quote:
Originally posted by Roy P

Actually, that's not good grammar is it!? I'll try again:

What are the odds of being dealt the same hand of 13 cards again?

__________________________________________________________
Roy P



I suppose that depends what happens to the cards after the 1st deal. But, in theory, the odds are exactly the same the 2nd time as for the 1st.

Brand new forum at
http://beaverlandforum.y4a.net
More than just science
 

Offline JimBob

  • Global Moderator
  • Neilep Level Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6564
  • Thanked: 7 times
  • Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #10 on: 29/05/2006 19:31:13 »
DARE I SAY THIS???

I do not think this is correct, Herr Doktor. The first hand and the second hand have the same probability of occurance. But to do it twice in a row increases the difficulty VERY profoundly. I cannot find my probability and statistics book to give the exact figures but I hope I am remembering enough.



The mind is like a parachute. It works best when open.  -- A. Einstein
 

Offline DoctorBeaver

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12656
  • Thanked: 3 times
  • A stitch in time would have confused Einstein.
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #11 on: 29/05/2006 20:25:03 »
quote:
Originally posted by JimBob

DARE I SAY THIS???

I do not think this is correct, Herr Doktor. The first hand and the second hand have the same probability of occurance. But to do it twice in a row increases the difficulty VERY profoundly. I cannot find my probability and statistics book to give the exact figures but I hope I am remembering enough.



The mind is like a parachute. It works best when open.  -- A. Einstein



That's what I would have thought. But I distinctly remember some expert on TV talking about the lottery and saying what I said. To be honest I haven't a clue about stats & probabilities. I got a maths grad to do the stats for my thesis :)

Brand new forum at
http://beaverlandforum.y4a.net
More than just science
 

Offline Laith

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #12 on: 29/05/2006 21:21:29 »
If X is the probability of getting 13 cards, i think the probability of getting the same hand again is X^2

Laith
 

ROBERT

  • Guest
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #13 on: 30/05/2006 16:47:00 »
quote:
Originally posted by Hadrian

What are the odds of getting  Five Aces (with Joker,AAAAJr)

A 1 in 2,869,685
B 1 in 649,740
c 1 in 52,470

Answers with a one Euro entry fee.

Thanks!




Assuming only one joker then I think the odds are:-
1/57 x 1/56 x 1/55 x 1/54 x 1/53 = 1/502,452,720
I could be wrong [:I].
« Last Edit: 30/05/2006 16:48:48 by ROBERT »
 

Offline Laith

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #14 on: 31/05/2006 04:47:23 »
Hi Robert,
I think your wrong but im also not sure, with one joker the deck would have 52+1=53 cards

P(1st ace) = 4/53
P(2nd ace) = 3/52
P(3rd ace) = 2/51
P(4th ace) = 1/50
P(Joker) = 1/49

P(4 aces and joker) = 4/53 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/50 *1/49 = 1/14,348,425
with 2 jokers i get 1/7,906,275

Please correct me if i'm wrong, I'd like to know

Laith
 

ROBERT

  • Guest
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #15 on: 31/05/2006 16:48:08 »
quote:
Originally posted by Laith

Hi Robert,
I think your wrong but im also not sure, with one joker the deck would have 52+1=53 cards


You are correct about the 53 cards Laith, I counted the aces twice to get 57 [:I],
 (you can tell I don't play cards).

Somehow we are both overestimating the odds on this one:
The odds of winning the UK lottery , selecting 6 from 49, is approximately 14 million.
 Hadrian's "five aces" question is selecting 5 from 53, so is more probable than winning the lottery. Perhaps Hadrian could show us his calculations.

" UK Lottery Odds of winning
3 numbers  1: 57
4 numbers  1: 1,033
5 numbers  1: 55,492
5 numbers and bonus ball 1: 2,330,636
6 numbers  1: 13,983,816 ".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Lottery

" Five cards are dealt from a standard deck of 52 cards. I don't think I'll list S in this case since it contains over 2 and half million elements."
http://www.stat.wmich.edu/s160/book/node19.html
"over 2 and a half million" is close to Hadrian's figure "A".

« Last Edit: 31/05/2006 17:02:37 by ROBERT »
 

Offline Laith

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #16 on: 01/06/2006 02:10:37 »
okay i know what went wrong, if we count the joker as one of the aces instead of taking its probability separate from the other 4 aces we get the answer in A

5/53 * 4/52 * 3/51 * 2/50 *1/49 = 1/2,869,685

Thanks for the question Hadrian :)

Laith
« Last Edit: 01/06/2006 02:13:57 by Laith »
 

Offline DoctorBeaver

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12656
  • Thanked: 3 times
  • A stitch in time would have confused Einstein.
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #17 on: 01/06/2006 11:33:20 »
quote:
Originally posted by Laith

Hi Robert,
I think your wrong but im also not sure, with one joker the deck would have 52+1=53 cards

P(1st ace) = 4/53
P(2nd ace) = 3/52
P(3rd ace) = 2/51
P(4th ace) = 1/50
P(Joker) = 1/49

P(4 aces and joker) = 4/53 * 3/52 * 2/51 * 1/50 *1/49 = 1/14,348,425
with 2 jokers i get 1/7,906,275

Please correct me if i'm wrong, I'd like to know

Laith



That's what I did but assumed 2 jokers so I started with 4/54, 3/53, etc

Brand new forum at
http://beaverlandforum.y4a.net
More than just science
 

Offline freddy

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 2
    • View Profile
Re: What are the odds
« Reply #18 on: 10/06/2006 03:33:05 »
the answer to getting 4 aces and the joker is 1:2,869,685
1/53x2/52x3/51x4/50x5/49=2,869,685
 

The Naked Scientists Forum

Re: What are the odds
« Reply #18 on: 10/06/2006 03:33:05 »

 

SMF 2.0.10 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums