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Author Topic: Global Warming  (Read 14920 times)

Offline JimBob

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #25 on: 07/06/2006 16:49:13 »
I appreciate the answer, it is all I have been trying to get to.

"Desert" has been applied to areas over the world that have many different characteristics. Usually the word means less than 250 mm of rainfall, but it is often applied to regions that are technically 'steppe' or 'savanna'i.e., up to 500 mm of rainfall. I live in a near-savanna region that is considered part of the Sonoran Desert. From ~3,000 to ~70,000 years ago, the Sahara was actually savanna. Please read the references, last post, in toto to begin to understand the intricacies. Desert and simi-arid regions are very complex ecosystems. Also note the modern examples of man changing the land from steppe to desert (ref. for desertification, last post) in the Aral Sea region and in the U.S. 'Dust Bowl' of the 30's.



The mind is like a parachute. It works best when open.  -- A. Einstein
 

Offline VAlibrarian

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #26 on: 08/06/2006 02:42:59 »
JimBob-
I think I sort of answered your question "Is global warming real", but let me do so with more frankness.
Yes global warming is real. Yes it is caused primarily by human activities, namely the burning of enormous amounts of fossil fuel which produce a jump in the amount of atmospheric CO2, thus reducing the amount of solar heat able to escape our atmosphere. You could call this "normal", as higher temperatures are the normal result of CO2 in the atmosphere, but it is also true that the 30% increase of CO2 is entirely due to human activity, and that is not the normal functioning of nature. Yes the result of this fuel burning is going to become clearer in the future, but it is not needful to wait a thousand years to develop a meaningful baseline. The jump in fossil fuel use over the past 150 years produced a jump in global temperatures by means of CO2 pollution. End of discussion as far as I am concerned.
I understand that this makes me a crackpot in the eyes of a few, but I am reminded of the physician (his name escapes me) who noticed 200-odd years ago that women in hospitals were dying of infection at a much higher rate than women giving birth at home. When he hypothesized that doctors were passing infection from one mother to another while attending childbirth without washing their hands, he was kicked out of the hospital and publicly called a buffoon. The women continued to die for a few years until he was proved correct. As far as I am concerned, atmospheric scientists are doing their jobs, attempting to create accurate analyses of causality in order to suggest sustainable public policies. As far as I am concerned, critics of global warming are doing their jobs, protecting the profitability of Exxon and General Motors.

chris wiegard
 

another_someone

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #27 on: 08/06/2006 03:27:47 »
quote:
Originally posted by VAlibrarian
I understand that this makes me a crackpot in the eyes of a few, but I am reminded of the physician (his name escapes me) who noticed 200-odd years ago that women in hospitals were dying of infection at a much higher rate than women giving birth at home. When he hypothesized that doctors were passing infection from one mother to another while attending childbirth without washing their hands, he was kicked out of the hospital and publicly called a buffoon. The women continued to die for a few years until he was proved correct.



No, it doesn't make you a crackpot, but it may make you wrong.

It is certainly the case that most people who come up with a revolutionary idea are initially disbelieved; but equally, most people who come up with radical ideas, and are initially disbelieved, are actually wrong.  For every one radical idea that is proven right, there are many that are wrong, so simply claiming that your idea is radical enough not to convince everyone else of it does not prove your to be right (it neither proves you to be wrong).  The fact that both sides of this debate have people who believe they are radical, and right; and the other side are radical and wrong; means that the same argument for being 'ahead of their time' can be claimed by both sides.

Ofcourse, it is much easier to perform double blind trials on pregnant women than it is on the Environment, so proving things one way or the other is far more difficult with Environmental issues.  The best argument you can try and use is to make historic comparisons, but if you are trying to argue for a situation that you claim has no historic precedent, then it is very difficult to find positive proof for your case in the historic records.

For those of us who do see similarities with past events, and can thus claim the present is just an approximate repeat of history, the matter is easier.  Certainly, there are historic events that can be shown to be similar to the present, but then your argument would have to rely on the fact that history, while it may approximately repeats itself, never exactly repeats itself, and so you would still claim that the present situation is subtly unique and not precisely comparable to the pre-human historic events.



George
 

Offline crandles

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #28 on: 29/07/2006 19:51:00 »
I agree that the science is in on the subject of whether anthropogenic global warming is real. It is real and the IPCC have reported saying so. There remain questions over how much of an affect it will have and what are the appropriate policy responses.
 

Offline VAlibrarian

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #29 on: 31/07/2006 01:21:25 »
In the meantime, sell that property in south Florida while the market is still high. When the flooding from global warming's increase in sea levels starts, insurance rates will go up and nobody will want to buy your house.

chris wiegard
 

another_someone

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #30 on: 31/07/2006 01:44:09 »
quote:
Originally posted by VAlibrarian
In the meantime, sell that property in south Florida while the market is still high. When the flooding from global warming's increase in sea levels starts, insurance rates will go up and nobody will want to buy your house.



But, hey, you might get a good deal on a house in Alaska that might appreciate in price.



George
 

Offline crandles

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #31 on: 29/07/2006 19:51:00 »
I agree that the science is in on the subject of whether anthropogenic global warming is real. It is real and the IPCC have reported saying so. There remain questions over how much of an affect it will have and what are the appropriate policy responses.
 

Offline VAlibrarian

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #32 on: 31/07/2006 01:21:25 »
In the meantime, sell that property in south Florida while the market is still high. When the flooding from global warming's increase in sea levels starts, insurance rates will go up and nobody will want to buy your house.

chris wiegard
 

another_someone

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #33 on: 31/07/2006 01:44:09 »
quote:
Originally posted by VAlibrarian
In the meantime, sell that property in south Florida while the market is still high. When the flooding from global warming's increase in sea levels starts, insurance rates will go up and nobody will want to buy your house.



But, hey, you might get a good deal on a house in Alaska that might appreciate in price.



George
 

Offline mocathe1st

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Re: Global Warming
« Reply #34 on: 03/08/2006 09:47:33 »
Hi, Just stumbled across this forum. Very interesting. A link you might find useful (at least those of you from the UK should) is:
newbielink:http://greenspaceresearch.uhi.ac.uk/greenspace [nonactive]
This is a Google map representation of all carbon emission levels in the UK down to the square km level with a detailed breakdown of the level of each type of emission. It also allows users to add suggestions for what they think can be done to reduce carbon emisssions levels in their area. This is a brand new site and has the potential to become very powerful.
 

The Naked Scientists Forum

Re: Global Warming
« Reply #34 on: 03/08/2006 09:47:33 »

 

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