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Author Topic: Is this an armageddon scenario?  (Read 3464 times)

Offline GatoNegroPeludo

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Is this an armageddon scenario?
« on: 12/09/2012 08:21:12 »
I wonder, solar sistem is big, millions and millions of kms...

what would happen if a rogue planet  size of mars crossed straight our ecliptic plane?
i know there could be many possibilities, crashing into jupiter, saturn, the sun, or achieving an orbit...
but any scenario would be the end for life in earth? or are we protected enough?

imagine...


 

Offline Soul Surfer

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #1 on: 12/09/2012 09:52:17 »
the main point is that there are no rogue planets the size of mars anywhere near our solar system if there were we would have seen them years ago.  we could easily detect something that big way beyond the orbit of Pluto (which is much smaller than mars).

Even if one was approaching the solar system at typical interstellar object relative velocities it would be many years after it was detected before it got near enough to be a problem and we could calculate and predict precisely what would happen.

At any time there are usually several comets inside the orbit of Mars that have come in from deep space and some from interstellar space these are small objects about a mile a cross or smaller and are all tracked carefully. They are only around for a few months before they go back where they came from.  They would make a mess if one hit us but would not cause any gravitational disturbance to the earth's orbit.  where a body the size of mars could if it came quite close.

The probability of a direct hit from a random orbiting object is incredibly small.  it is difficult to describe how tiny planets are compared with the space between them. 

As for mars itself the solar system had been stable for billions of years and undistrurbed it will be stable at least for a similar time.
 

Offline waytogo

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #2 on: 12/09/2012 09:55:48 »
Hi there, can you explain that? This below is the moon rising from the Northern Hemisphere, (Europe).

picture:
http://i1249.photobucket.com/albums/hh508/myfreepbaccount/TheMoon/d78eb5a0.jpg

Now the question is: what's that configuration of the moon? an eclipse? if it's an eclipse ...  of which object?

PS - however not necessarily an armageddon scenario, but... that's it.
« Last Edit: 12/09/2012 10:02:52 by waytogo »
 

Offline GatoNegroPeludo

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #3 on: 12/09/2012 10:09:19 »
the main point is that there are no rogue planets the size of mars anywhere near our solar system if there were we would have seen them years ago.  we could easily detect something that big way beyond the orbit of Pluto (which is much smaller than mars).

Well i know there aren't rogue planets hanging around (indeed there could be and our capacity to spot them with lot of time is disputed too) what i mean is "what if"... besides i stated "the size of mars" not mars itself...

When the SHoemaker-Levy hit Jupiter nothing happened... that make me think if the comet was a big object, like Titan or Mercury or Mars... would we felt something? what about an object like the moon in the orbit of Halley?

is just curiosity, about if we are able to survive some effects or what kind of effects in some scenarios...
 

Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #4 on: 13/09/2012 08:47:47 »
There are many comets with 1000+ year orbits that are unknown until they enter our solar system.  I think it is a little presumptuous to think we would be able to see every object the size of Pluto, Mercury, or even Mars, potentially even a couple of light years away.  Perhaps on a one time flyby, or a very long, highly eccentric orbit.

It is possible that planets must form near a star, but do we know that for sure?  Could planets be blown free from a supernova to wander the galaxy?

Sedna is a trans-Neptunian object about the size of Pluto, and only discovered in 2003 near its Perihelion, discovered  89.6 AU from the sun.  Had it been at its aphelion at  937 AU from the sun, it likely would not have been discovered yet.

The chances of a direct impact from a small planet on a very long orbit crossing Earth's orbit would be infinitesimally small.  It could potentially displace the orbits of some asteroids, but it would have to be bigger than Mars to really have a significant probability of dragging a planet killing asteroid into Earth's orbital path.

Have you read about the Nemisis Hypothesis?  The idea is that there are periodic mass extinction events every 26 or 27 million years.  The theory attributes this to a small, faint star orbiting around our sun, and returning to near the solar system every 26 million years.  But, so far, no such star has been found.  Perhaps a gas giant on a highly eccentric orbit?  Anyway, without finding the companion star, and further analysis, the research is being cast into doubt.
 

Offline evan_au

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #5 on: 13/09/2012 11:55:29 »
Quote
When the Shoemaker-Levy hit Jupiter nothing happened..

Some of the pieces of the comet Shoemaker-Levy made a fireball the width of the Earth - I wouldn't exactly call that "nothing". http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoemaker%E2%80%93Levy_9#Impacts

Due to Jupiter's gravity, these impacts were at 60km/s, which is faster than most meteor showers on Earth; but still, a fair sized piece of comet or asteroid would have a nasty impact on Earth. It wouldn't have to be as big as the Moon or Titan.
 

Offline GatoNegroPeludo

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #6 on: 15/09/2012 08:39:37 »
Quote
When the Shoemaker-Levy hit Jupiter nothing happened..

Some of the pieces of the comet Shoemaker-Levy made a fireball the width of the Earth - I wouldn't exactly call that "nothing". newbielink:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comet_Shoemaker%E2%80%93Levy_9#Impacts [nonactive]


I mean nothing happened to us... a comet impacting jupiter means no harm to us... but a big moon? or small planet?
This post refers to some big moon or small planet crossing near us (solar sistem speaking) or even hitting Jupiter or other planet... not the Earth.

I wonder if there could be gravitational implications if some other planet (not us) is being hit by a big object... and if you thinks there would be gravitational implications, what would we feel? Would them be gradually increasing? Instantly? what do you think?
 

Offline evan_au

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #7 on: 16/09/2012 05:59:43 »
If the colliding object were big enough , it could blast debris around the solar system - this might result in some meteorites that were big enough to do some serious damage on Earth.

An astronomical object would not actually need to collide with a planet to trigger a chaotic transition in the orbits of the planets. This could see planets changing orbits significantly, including orbits becoming very eccentric or planets crashing into each other. This would be very unpleasant on Earth, but it would certainly promote a renewed interest in Astronomy, and sales of Apps for Orbital Mechanics.

If a large body passed near the Earth, it could raise enormous tides - some of the simulations of our Solar System in the future showed chaotic states where a planet like Mars could pass between the Earth and the Moon. Tides are inversely proportional to the cube of the distance, so this could make the most alarmist predictions of global warming look like a day at the beach.
 

Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #8 on: 16/09/2012 07:01:39 »
Obviously a large body passing, say at LD wouldn't necessarily stay there for long.  So, we might have a global super-tide for at most one day.  And, it would have far more warning than an earthquake, so ships could head out to sea, and coastal communities could evacuate

Secondary space debris might depend on which planet the body collided with.  A planet with a thick atmosphere like Jupiter may not spread out a lot of secondary debris from a collision, unless it was a highly tangential grazing.  Even Venus may not loose much debris unless it was an enormous collision.  Mercury, Mars, or our own moon, on the other hand, could spread many more fragments back into space due to the thin atmospheres.

Is the large number of Martian meteorites evidence that the planet has always had a thin atmosphere?
 

Offline GatoNegroPeludo

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #9 on: 16/09/2012 08:03:10 »
Obviously a large body passing, say at LD wouldn't necessarily stay there for long.  So, we might have a global super-tide for at most one day.  And, it would have far more warning than an earthquake, so ships could head out to sea, and coastal communities could evacuate

Thats really interesting... but do you think once the body has passed, Earth could be out of orbit or the moon?... (I recall Space 1999, the moon just went away but nothing happened to the moon itself... well it was a TV show )
If so, the Earth could be flying away the Solar System or a force big enough to do that would first turn Earth into a magma planet again?
 

Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #10 on: 16/09/2012 09:02:24 »
It would likely take an impact with something as big as Earth, or bigger to significantly knock Earth out of orbit, in which case we wouldn't have to worry about our future post-impact. 

A small planet colliding with the moon could wreck havoc.  However, if it just passed between the Earth and the moon, it might throw the moon into an elliptical orbit, but I doubt it would be able to snatch the moon away from Earth due to there likely being too great of a speed differential for the new body to pick the moon up in orbit around it.
 

Offline GatoNegroPeludo

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #11 on: 16/09/2012 09:27:03 »
Interesting...
So, besides a direct hit, we will keep the orbit... and we could conclude that a passing by or hitting object is not an armageddon scenario...
 

Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #12 on: 16/09/2012 11:55:11 »
It is believed that the annual meteor showers are related to comets leaving debris behind.  Of course, they do little more than light up our night sky.

Most of the other planets don't seem to have much of tails, except for Jupiter which has a lot of stuff in the L4 & L5 Lagrangian points.
 

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Re: Is this an armageddon scenario?
« Reply #12 on: 16/09/2012 11:55:11 »

 

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