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Author Topic: Is our Earth is cooling?  (Read 27405 times)

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #100 on: 13/04/2013 07:53:58 »

damocles says
Your "clear definable pattern" does not show up in the ice core records. The fact of a decade of (slight) cooling does not refute the link between carbon dioxide and rising global temperature. You have provided evidence, but the evidence is neither well-organized nor good.

henry says
it does actually. e.g.

Reference
Hall, B.L. 2007. Late-Holocene advance of the Collins Ice Cap, King George Island, South Shetland Islands. The Holocene 17: 1253-1258.

Hall presented “radiocarbon and geomorphologic data that constrain [the] late-Holocene extent of the Collins Ice Cap on Fildes Peninsula (King George Island, South Shetland Islands: 62°10’51″S, 58°54’13″W),” which, in her words, “yield information on times in the past when climate in the South Shetland Islands must have been as warm as or warmer than today,” based on field mapping of moraines and glacial deposits adjacent to the ice cap, as well as radiocarbon dates of associated organic materials. Such data, according to Hall, “indicate ice advance after ~650 cal. yr BP (AD ~1300),” which she notes is “broadly contemporaneous with the ‘Little Ice Age’, as defined in Europe.” She also says that this was “the only advance that extended beyond the present ice margin in the last 3500 years, making the Little Ice Age in that part of the world likely the coldest period of the current interglacial. And the fact that “the present ice cap margin … is still more extensive than it was prior to ~650 cal. yr BP” led her to conclude that the climate prior to that time — which would have comprised the Medieval Warm Period — may have been “as warm as or warmer than present.” And this conclusion, along with the findings of the other studies reviewed herein, suggests there is nothing that is unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about the current level of Earth’s warmth, which further suggests that the historical increase in the atmosphere’s CO2 concentration may not have had anything to do with concomitant 20th-century global warming.

more studies that confirm a time when it was warmer on earth and when CO2 concentration was 100 ppm lower, can be found here:
http://www.co2science.org/data/mwp/mwpp.php
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #101 on: 13/04/2013 08:30:38 »
damocles says
...through increasing acidity of the oceans...

henry@damocles
now there is another myth.
Why don't you do a test in the lab. and see how much bicarbonate you need to put in the seawater to see any visible change in pH.
I am not an expert on this, but here is a whole list of graphs on that subject:
http://www.co2science.org/data/acidification/acidification.php
 

Offline Bored chemist

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #102 on: 13/04/2013 13:24:58 »

Why don't you do a test in the lab. and see how much bicarbonate you need to put in the seawater to see any visible change in pH.
I am not an expert on this,

Clearly not, since pH changes are not visible.
Also, there's already a fair bit of carbonate and bicarbonate in sea water, we are considering the effect of adding more CO2, rather than bicarbonate.
 

Offline damocles

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #103 on: 13/04/2013 14:09:43 »
Henry, here is the fallacy in your reasoning:

Yes, the strength of the far infrared radiation is far greater in the incoming solar spectrum than in the outgoing radiation spectrum of the Earth, and consequently you might expect that the influence of carbon dioxide in absorption would be greater on the incoming solar radiation than in the outgoing earthly radiation. That would certainly lead to cooling.

But most of the incoming radiation is in the visible and UV region, and almost all of the outgoing radiation is in the far IR. There has to be a balance between incoming and outgoing radiation (else the Earth would keep on heating up without limit). So in the steady state what matters is the proportion of far IR radiation in the total radiation spectrum, and that means an increasing relative amount of absorption in the outgoing spectrum, leading to warming rather than cooling.

We all know about the "little ice age" in Europe that followed a late 13th early 14th century optimum, but I fail to see anything that structures it into periods of 100 years. In fact I even recall that there was a published article that purported to find periodicity of 200 years. And when I was referring to "ice cores" I was meaning research like Vostok and Law Dome that pushes the climatic record back further in time, with oxygen isotope ratios as the proxy for temperature, rather than glacial moraines which cover a much more recent period and have much more questionable proxies.

Quote
damocles says
...through increasing acidity of the oceans...

henry@damocles
now there is another myth.
Why don't you do a test in the lab. and see how much bicarbonate you need to put in the seawater to see any visible change in pH.
I am not an expert on this, but here is a whole list of graphs on that subject:

I am also not an expert in this area. I would imagine that the amounts of bicarbonate that I would need to add would be astronomical, but then I would be adding carbon dioxide rather than bicarbonate. ;D

I find that the database on which the study relies is rather patchy, without much duplication. I also find it rather strange and inappropriate to assume that the IPCC figures can be dismissed so summarily, especially in view of the warning that at 450 ppm the whole game may change as other factors come into play.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #104 on: 13/04/2013 16:34:59 »
Damocles says
Yes, the strength of the far infrared radiation is far greater in the incoming solar spectrum than in the outgoing radiation spectrum of the Earth, and consequently you might expect that the influence of carbon dioxide in absorption would be greater on the incoming solar radiation than in the outgoing earthly radiation. That would certainly lead to cooling.

But most of the incoming radiation is in the visible and UV region, and almost all of the outgoing radiation is in the far IR. There has to be a balance between incoming and outgoing radiation (else the Earth would keep on heating up without limit). So in the steady state what matters is the proportion of far IR radiation in the total radiation spectrum, and that means an increasing relative amount of absorption in the outgoing spectrum, leading to warming rather than cooling.

Henry says
I fail to see where this is an answer to my reasoning here:
this is the point where everyone went wrong. The graph that I quote clearly shows you that incoming solar radiation (SW) is not constant if there is variation in the composition of the atmosphere..... More CO2 gas in the atmosphere means less (radiation) 2 and 4 um on your head. As long as I can get that in your head, you will be just fine. BTW most recently they also found some absorptions of the CO2 in the UV.

Remember: the sun emits 0-5 um. The main absorption here in the spectrum of CO2 are 1-2 um and 4-5 um. There is also some absorption of CO2 in the UV which is why we now can identify it on other planets, quantitatively as well,  I think. Earth emits 5-20 um. CO2 absorbs  here 14-16 um, as does water vapor, btw.

So what you are saying is: don't worry about incoming SW, it is only the OGLW that we are worried about. That makes no sense.You first have to make a balance sheet to determine what the net effect is of more of a GHG in the atmosphere. What you are saying,  for example, in the extreme  case of ozone, which has also absorption 9-10 um,  that more ozone will lead to warming of the planet rather than cooling.
Yet every scientist  who is sane must realize that more ozone will lead to less UV coming in.....i.e. less heat going into the oceans.

if you don't get this understanding, you will not understand what actually causes the different periodic climatic cycles,
to which I will come back later.
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #105 on: 13/04/2013 17:17:59 »
So you mean that you don't have to read it, because you already 'know' it must be wrong? I'm getting tired of this. Read How do we know more CO2 is causing warming? if you're serious, then tell them, not us, where they go wrong :) also understand that you need to read the papers linked, to refute it..
=

And stop this bs here.

If you bother to check the link they, amongst other things, take up the same things as you discussing radiation, and do it quite well. The sun heats us up, the earth radiates it back as IR, the atmosphere gets kinetic energy from it, some molecules store more energy than others. It's not that difficult to comprehend, unless one are getting some benefit out from being contrary of course. Then everything is open for dispute, and no statistical or experimental evidence will be enough, as long as one still get followers impressed by bs :) A little like politics maybe :)
« Last Edit: 13/04/2013 17:29:13 by yor_on »
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #106 on: 13/04/2013 17:29:19 »
here is the reaction that the alarmists are worried about:
cold + CO2 (g) + 2H2O => HCO3-  +  H3O+ (1)

the gas sinks/dissolves forming bicarbonate and hydronium ions

heat makes the reaction go in the opposite direction:

heat + HCO3- => CO2 (g) + OH- (2)
 
Hence the causal relationship between increasing warmth and increasing CO2 (because there are giga tons and gigatons of bicarbonate in the oceans).

At this stage I should perhaps just clarify, that water and carbon dioxide are like your mother and your father. Anyone wanting less of either must be daft. We need a minimum of 180 ppm's CO2 (0.02 % of the atmosphere) for life to survive. Tests with tomatoes showed much increased growth at 1000 ppm and hence we are adding CO2 in the real GH's.
CO2 in the atmosphere will start dropping if it gets cooler, hence if we fall into in a glacial, all life on solid ground will simply come to a halt because the CO2 will keep on dropping.
Over the past 60 years, CO2 increased from ca. 0.03% to about 0.04%.
This increase in fact does not tie up with what we put in the air. Ca. 60% of that what we put up is being "used up" because we all want more trees, lawns, more crops, more wine, etc...

Anyway, my point was, that you would need hundreds of thousands ppms in the air (100000's) , if you want to change the pH of the oceans by a miserable 0.1 or so, and this was checked and verified by tests;
so any alarm about oceanic acidification is just another myth.

Most studies (that I looked at)  on pH change are very small scale and cannot be regarded as globally representative. Anyone working with pH meters knows that you need daily if not hourly calibrations because of the drift in the probes.

Either way, even if there is a shift in pH, to lower,  as alleged,  then it is most probably caused by the global cooling of the past 11 years, as shown to you by me and others, which will result in more sinking of CO2 in the colder regions,  i.e. reaction (1)


 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #107 on: 13/04/2013 17:44:42 »
Eh, the " Hall, B.L. 2007. Late-Holocene advance of the Collins Ice Cap, King George Island, South Shetland Islands. The Holocene 17: 1253-1258. " that you refer too.

Did you get that one from Koch Industries Climate Denial Front Group, eh. sorry, "http://www.co2science.org/about/mission.php" or from http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/11/evidence-for-a-global-medieval-warm-period/

It doesn't impress me if so, and don't lecture us on what's biased please.
Read the link I gave, go there and discuss. They discuss the same as you.
==

And so should you guys and gals expecting Carbon to present the gospel :)

« Last Edit: 13/04/2013 17:48:31 by yor_on »
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #108 on: 13/04/2013 17:58:06 »
Yor-on says
So you mean that you don't have to read it,
Henry says
No,
I read it,
commented on it,
and found that all my comments have been deleted.
(btw. that was a few years ago)
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #109 on: 13/04/2013 18:04:22 »
Now that's a real good statement :)
Did I mention that I was expecting a Nobel prize, but somehow got missed in all papers before the medal had a chance to go to me?

A conspiracy?

Take a real good look at that 'scientific publication' :) http://www.co2science.org/about/mission.php Then have a look at what greenpeace has to say in http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/en/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/polluterwatch/koch-industries/center-for-the-study-of-carbon/
 

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #110 on: 13/04/2013 18:18:54 »
Shrunk
henry@Yor-on

I wish somebody was in fact paying me trying to educate you all.... :X
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #111 on: 13/04/2013 19:32:00 »
the worst problem with doubting a global warming isn't the doubt, as it is most common to just decide a thing and then find facts supporting it. Instead it seems to come as they start to check up if they're right. Because for each one checking it up the same discussion(s) will pop up, again. And people defending a global warming better have the patience of angels, which leaves me out of it those days.

When it comes to downright denying, well, that's different.
Don't need to be a angel there, do I?
heh. .
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #112 on: 13/04/2013 21:10:28 »
Damocles says
I am retired, and in all probability have only a short time to live.

Henry@damocles
I am semi retired, just running two charities;
I just blog a bit at nights to train my brains ...just to keep me running...

Sorry to hear about your condition. I lost my mum recently and was devastated becoming a half-orphan.
I realized that we all have to face Gethsemane one day; we have to be ready for that.
but we are not one of those that are without hope?
Blog link removed

I prayed for you.

Henry

« Last Edit: 14/04/2013 16:26:43 by JP »
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #113 on: 14/04/2013 16:07:34 »
First of all MCK.

Normally we just argue here. If we think we have a hypothesis we either present it in a peer reviewed paper, or in 'new theories' if done without rigorous mathematics.

Secondly we do not invoke deity, no matter our religious beliefs. As a creationist one might find this inappropriate, but on TNS we expect ones ideas to be able to stand on their own worth, being proven by the same standards those use not being creationists.

As for that you "just blog a bit at nights to train my brains ...just to keep me running..". That's not how I read your posts? You seemed very convinced in your views, to the point where you refused to read links discussing the same?

As for the rest of your (last) post I agree. It's hard losing a loved one, and I'm sure we all appreciate the sympathy expressed there. But don't give up on us not religious, we might have a faith of sorts too :) and something to look forward to.

Anyway, can we stop this here?
 

Offline JP

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #114 on: 14/04/2013 16:30:48 »
Henry, I removed your link, since it's off-topic, about religion, and to your personal blog.  This thread has enough issues remaining a scientific debate already.   :)

Yor_on, if you feel another user is violating forum rules in their posts, please report it to the forum moderators for action.  We'd like to keep this thread on topic since its so contentious.
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #115 on: 14/04/2013 16:52:55 »
Sorry JP, will do.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #116 on: 14/04/2013 17:39:52 »
henry@Yor-On

Going by your last two posts then, what you are saying, is that we must continue "to believe" in global warming, because it is the "accepted" theory,  even though most of the official indicators (including my own) show that it  has been globally cooling (for the past 11 years).
I have shown this to you in my very first post on the first page here.

Furthermore, after analyzing thousands of daily data, from 47 weather stations, my results also seem to indicate that
a) the ratio of the rate of warming and cooling in the past suggests that the reason for climate change is naturally occurring cycles, not more CO2. 
b) we will continue to cool down, despite more CO2 coming into the atmosphere,

If you want a) and b) peer re-viewed you can do your own statistical analyses of weather stations?>
Thank you very much.

Lastly, to make the gravity of what we are discussing here even more clear:
the world has to wake up to the fact that it is globally cooling because it (i.e. more cooling) will have
dire consequences for global agriculture. In the little ice age thousands died because of hunger and starvation.

This is because the differential between zero latitude and 90 degrees latitude will become bigger. Naturally this will cause  less precipitation at higher latitudes and more at lower latitudes.

So, to prevent famines in the future, for 7 billion people and counting, to survive,  we need to encourage more agriculture at lower latitudes, e.g. Africa, south America.
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #117 on: 14/04/2013 18:59:49 »
Well, we will see more famines Henry, we already have them, although not in the developed countries. And that will be as natural a cause of global warming, as it would be from a global cooling. And you can't expect anything to stay the same under any of those processes, neither between countries nor inside them, as when it comes to farming. We will also see territorial disputes grow, as exemplified by Chinas newfound interest in the Arctic, although they have no borders to it. Those issues won't diminish either.

We will either all grow up, and accept our new role of caretaker of this planet, or we will behave as locust and devour what's resources that will be left, as climate change build up. And that either will include sharing those resources, or war.
 

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #118 on: 14/04/2013 19:36:11 »
Shrunk
henry@yor-on
your last comment seems to suggest that you do not mind what is causing the potentially disastrous climate change,
whether it is global cooling or man made global warming/
that is not very scientific....Anyway, despite the naturally occuring climate change, it is in fact still part of Grand Design to keep the temps. on earth within reasonable limits so that life can survive.
I have not even begun to start to explain this here....
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #119 on: 14/04/2013 19:49:32 »
No, you're misunderstanding what I say Henry :)

I'm pointing out that both processes inevitably will lead to changes, involving both climate and local weather. And also that this is no news. Most Countries in the world are awake to this possibility, and as they also expect a global warming, they will plan for it, but from a local perspective. Meaning that we will 'compete' instead of 'share'. I could find you, and have found, several governmental policy makers, as 'think tanks' recommendations internally, as what is best for that particular country. That shouldn't surprise you, and neither does it surprise me. But a global warming, and diminishing resources, makes it essential to stop being provincial. In some ways I think of that as being one of mankind's final test.

We're not used to it, and it goes against our grain.
 

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #120 on: 14/04/2013 19:58:25 »
Shrunk
Your-on says
But a global warming, and diminishing resources, makes it essential.....

henry says
there is no more global warming
and there won't be
until at least 2040.


 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #121 on: 14/04/2013 20:05:32 »
As for your 'Grand Design', why not place it in 'New theories', as a suggestion. Either that, or go to the sites refuting your view to refute theirs first. Then come back when your views are the ones agreed upon by a majority of peer reviewed papers and experiments, to show me where we all went wrong :)

But not before that.
 

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #122 on: 14/04/2013 20:19:25 »
Shrunk
henry@yor-on
I have given you a lot of clues in this thread. Go figure.
 

Offline damocles

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #123 on: 14/04/2013 23:16:24 »
Henry, here is the balance sheet you have been calling for:

Incoming solar radiation: 1360 watt/m2
Far infrared component of incoming ~10 watt/m2
removed by CO2 absorption: natural ~ 100 milliwatt/m2
    anthropogenic ~40 milliwatt/m2
These last two components will cause cooling of the Earth's surface.

Outgoing Earth radiation 340 watt/m2
far infrared component of outgoing ~250 watt/m2
removed by CO2 absorption: natural ~2.5 watt/m2
   anthropogenic ~ 1 watt/m2

these last two components will cause warming.

The result? Net warming of the local atmosphere as the result of 2.4 watt/m2 natural and 0.96 watt/m2 anthropogenic.

However these figures (which you can easily check with a google search, which in turn might lead you to read and get a better appreciation of the mainstream literature) are only considering the effect of the CO2 greenhouse effect, and do not take into account interactions with other Earth systems.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #124 on: 15/04/2013 18:56:57 »
Damocles says
however these figures (which you can easily check with a google search, which in turn might lead you to read and get a better appreciation of the mainstream literature)
henry@damocles
if you will take the time to investigate where these figures come from, you will find out that they "calculate" this from models. Furthermore, the models are based on observations.
When I first realized what had happened I said:
you cannot calculate that which has never been measured.
The initial value of 1.7 that was used for a long time came originally from the IPCC  AR4 2007.
When I first studied this, I realized what they had done. 
1) make a decision: earth is getting warmer, and man is to blame.
everybody agreed.
2) scientists then went ahead and made a (proportional) weighting of various factors that changed from 1750-2005 versus the amount of observed warming 1750-2005....
the weighting for CO2 increase ended up at 1.7

You see what the problem is? You are looking from the wrong end because you have not established exact cause.... It is the worst mistake a scientist can make... and I blame the IPCC and all that signed their names to it.

so if you want to impress me and prove to me that these values are real, you have to come up with actual test methods and actual test results.
 

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #124 on: 15/04/2013 18:56:57 »

 

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