The Naked Scientists

The Naked Scientists Forum

Author Topic: Is our Earth is cooling?  (Read 27562 times)

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #25 on: 15/03/2013 17:24:39 »
@bored chemist
Clearly, you did not even read or understand my very first post and the implications of my results, especially the last sentence.


You can ignore them, but to ignore them is the same as ignoring the truth. The truth has a habit of showing up, eventually,
(John 19-37&38 - how appropriate for this time of the year),

(I am not worried except for the waste of $trillions, on so-called climate science, and expensive energy alternatives).

How on earth are we expected to do terra forming on future planets if we cannot even get the basic science of the ideal atmospheric composition right?

Here you can see that putting up more CO2 in the air is good for you,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/

People wanting less CO2 and less H2O are actually denying their own father and mother.....
if you go far enough back in time. Chris should have figured that one out.
Anyway, goodbye, God bless you all,
I wish you and all my brethren here the best for the future.

Henry
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 8681
  • Thanked: 42 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #26 on: 16/03/2013 09:22:30 »
Or, in the real world:

"Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last "
from

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23247-true-face-of-climates-hockey-stick-graph-revealed.html
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #27 on: 16/03/2013 15:25:19 »

@bored chemist
it appears there were inconsistencies with the statistical analysis there

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/16/marcotts-uptick-a-result-of-proxy-sign-inconsistency/

I already gave you a link to the greenland ice core analysis earlier up the thread which clearly you did not read or understand


now please, can I, for once,  be the one who has the last word on this blog?
I am sure you have better things to do than educate a "screw-up" like me.
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #28 on: 17/03/2013 02:24:29 »
BC you are fighting a losing battle here. This is not only a man of good old fashioned common sense, he also goes with God at his side as I get it, reading :) 

Anyway, you being right won't solve this. Only divine intervention will.
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 8681
  • Thanked: 42 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #29 on: 17/03/2013 09:18:26 »
Indeed,
As long as you can quote the Bible you don't need to supply actual evidence to overrule reality: just point out that someone on some site somewhere disagrees with it.

I think part of his problem is that he thinks it's a blog.
If it were then he could have the last word, as it stands, there is no reason why he should.

I think the evidence should have the last word.
What does everyone else think?
 

Offline Henry Pool

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 88
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #30 on: 17/03/2013 15:03:18 »
@bored chemist
Remember Steve McIntyre? You think
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/16/the-marcott-shakun-dating-service/

there, we got that sorted out for you.

Your-on is a bit off. I always make my observations and judge the results.

I wish you many happy wet and snowy days - be glad that you are right:
it is getting warmer in central England
Paradoxically it gets warmer in CET because globally it is getting cooler,
… it is called the GH effect…..

remember my name
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 8681
  • Thanked: 42 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #31 on: 17/03/2013 19:57:03 »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #32 on: 29/03/2013 16:54:01 »
I especially like 'Remember my name'. It's soo, Hollywood?

Anyway, with more humidity you will get more water coming back from the atmosphere, some as rain some as snow, and all things in between :) When the Arctic melts you get open waters, where there formerly was ice reflecting back the suns rays. That means that the water will consume 'heat' from those rays, and store it to release, as well as transport it to other parts of the world, depending on streams, winds, etc. Greenland and the Arctic are getting a lot of heat those days, keeping Greenland over zero The Greenland melt. . Sweden, parts of USA, and England  (Europe) on the other hand is getting a lot more cold and snow. The reason being  It’s Official: Arctic Sea Ice Shatters Record Low and those (new to us at least) atmospheric conditions that it creates. The Winter the Polar Vortex Collapsed.

But this is a new situation, and I'm sure we will see more of it as the number one 'reality show' global warming reveal itself for us. And remember, we're all participants this time :)

==

If you only read one of the links, choose the Greenland melt. Because that one gives me worries.
« Last Edit: 29/03/2013 17:17:03 by yor_on »
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #33 on: 29/03/2013 18:03:49 »

@Yor_on
you completely removed my last comment, implicating UEA, in part, for the whole global warming scam...
Nevertheless, I will answer your comment. Count back 88 years? where are we?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/
Read the whole newspaper report. The warming was caused by the warmer Gulf stream.
As I said: all "LOST" arctic ice will freeze back in the next 2 decades, as it did from 1925-1950.
You don't have to worry. Except, of course for more snow there, where you live...
just keep shoving it...
and still believe the world is warming...
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #34 on: 29/03/2013 18:27:57 »
:)

It's okay. Wasn't writing about your sources. Only presenting what is commonly thought of, amongst those working with with climate, as being the explanation for the winters we've seen recently in northern Europe, and parts of the USA. As for climate conspiracies :) Well. I'll leave that to you.

I expect the peer reviewed papers to be okay, especially after being scrutinized. It may well be that a former weather reporter, as your link goes too, is competent to have a differing view, but? I will put my money with those working in the field, bringing home their conclusions in form of good peer reviewed papers :) And those consist of a overwhelming majority, finding us to creating a global warming.
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #35 on: 29/03/2013 18:31:41 »
Eh, I haven't removed a thing btw?
You need a moderator for that.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #36 on: 29/03/2013 18:41:22 »

Yor_on says
It may well be that a former weather reporter, as your link goes too, is competent to have a differing view, but? I will put my money with those...
Henry says
I was talking about the newspaper report he was showing from 1922
Read it and get wise>
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #37 on: 29/03/2013 18:52:20 »
You do see this as your blog, right?
Far from me to discourage you, but we do have 'new theories'. I'm not sure that it covers this material, but if it doesn't we need to create one more :) And I read, and laughed the whole way through :) You made my day Carbon, thnx.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #38 on: 29/03/2013 18:58:08 »
Blog? You call this a blog?
I am the one laughing....
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 8681
  • Thanked: 42 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #39 on: 29/03/2013 19:09:41 »
Blog? You call this a blog?
I am the one laughing....
No, you called it a blog 16/03.
"now please, can I, for once,  be the one who has the last word on this blog?
I am sure you have better things to do than educate a "screw-up" like me."
 

Offline JP

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 3366
  • Thanked: 2 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #40 on: 29/03/2013 19:49:24 »
Folks, let's keep it a discussion of the science of global warming and cut back on the snarky comments.

-mod
 

Offline evan_au

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 4131
  • Thanked: 249 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #41 on: 29/03/2013 20:49:46 »
Warmer ocean temperatures means more moisture in the air.
  • More moisture in the air means more instances of heavy rainfall, hurricanes and severe snowstorms.
  • Rain from hurricanes and slush after snowstorms make you feel cold.
  • People remember how cold they felt during these extreme events.
  • That is how global warming can give people the idea that things are getting cooler - if you only take selected local memories.
Fortunately, now we have global measurements from satellites, and a fairly good network of ground-based and ocean-based measurements, extending back over many years.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #42 on: 30/03/2013 08:45:08 »
@Evan -au

All major indicators including SST (sea surface temps) and including my own data set, show we are cooling, globally,
as shown to you in my very first post, for at least the past equivalent of one solar cycle.(11-12 years)


looking at my own data set (for example by studying degree C, versus time square)  it is clear that global warming and global cooling are a natural process and that global cooling will continue, accelerating still and it will last until at least 2038 or there about....
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #43 on: 30/03/2013 18:23:55 »
Sorry, that should read:
by studying degrees C/annum versus time (years):
that gives you acceleration in K /t square
in my case it shows deceleration of warming or acceleration of cooling
A curved relationship indicates a natural process
just like if you were to plot the speed of a ball (in m/s) against time
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #44 on: 02/04/2013 00:33:11 »
Let us keep it as simple as possible :)

If now that is possible. It's tricky, climate modeling is really tricky. One have to remember that we haven't really studied this extensively for more than maybe forty (fifty?) years? I'm not sure there as a real study should need to involve the best computing environment in the world, and if we use that as our definition, then we have only begun to study it. Another factor is that there are several layers in the atmosphere mixing with each other, and we have just begun to look at the stratospheres importance for the climate we notice on ground level. The same goes for the oceans at depth.

The scientific consensus of a man made global warming has nothing to do with those difficulties though, so when people want to dispute some new report/paper, or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.

To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear. But to know how it will express itself locally is almost impossible, unless we do it for some limited time. There are no computers able to do those calculations on earth, plus that we constantly find new interactions mankind didn't know existed before we started to take climate seriously, and made that field work.
 

Offline MoreCarbonOK

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 164
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #45 on: 02/04/2013 15:59:33 »
yor_on says

a) or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.

b) To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear.

c) The scientific consensus of a man made global warming....

henry@yor_on

a) It is common knowledge that there has been no global warming for at least 15 or 16 years. If you deny that you are bicycling up the wrong tree.

b) we were indeed on an uptick, warming naturally, since 1927 according to my own best fit for my own data, as shown before, on maxima, which is an a-c sine wave with wavelength of approx. 88 years, on average. At the time when I determined this I was not even aware that the Gleisberg solar/weather cycle had already been determined from other data. A good (global) data base from before that time is murky, to say the least, because of poor calibration (no certificates) and poor recording methods (depending on people).

c) my  own data and those of most others, show a definitive cooling trend from 2002, and my own fit for my own data shows that we will cool further, until about 2038, when everything will be back more or less to where we were in 1950. We cannot have "an election" about this. In science, consensus is just nonsense. You only need one man to be right. I invite you to try and make another fit for my data on maxima,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/

 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #46 on: 02/04/2013 16:28:17 »
Oh :)

A lone ranger mission, is it?
Correcting the results of those 'climate scientists'?

I don't know what to say here. I can argue myself blue, but I don't expect it to change your mind, because you are r i g h t. right? Let us put this way, there are a publication for physics arxivx, why not present your calculations and evidence to them? Instead of wasting your time with argue here?  Not sure they accept climate papers, but as long as you have the equations you might have a glimmer :) And sorry Jp, your turn.
 


Offline JP

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 3366
  • Thanked: 2 times
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #48 on: 02/04/2013 17:30:57 »
Notes on how to cherry pick the aforementioned data to find a cooling period:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#trends
 

Offline yor_on

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • Posts: 12001
  • Thanked: 4 times
  • (Ah, yes:) *a table is always good to hide under*
    • View Profile
Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #49 on: 02/04/2013 17:59:25 »
Ánd no, consensus is not nonsense, not when it is a peer review. Neither Einsteins papers or any of QM:s was accepted 'as is'. There is always a peer review by those involved in the field of study. But do try arxivx, or why not real climate? But you will need all those data specified with time, location, and describe the exact measurements made, you will also need cross sections done using different sources, of the same date at least.

Because, using singular sources won't give you climate, only weather. Weather is always local 'singular sources' locally measured, climate on the other hand is a global phenomena, needing a whole lot more coverage by geographically differently situated 'local weather stations'. So you need to start with how you choose your measurements and cross sections, then you also need to prove the established climate models wrong, and preferably present some new observations, and tests, making your idea plausible. A table is not a proof.

That's also why Sweden can have a prolonged winter while Australia have heat waves and bush-fires. Globally counted on the temperature constantly is raising, but locally you might find something else. Climate is tricky.

But please, don't do it here. Direct it to those you're trying to disprove instead, and put some faith in science too :)
==

One more thing, 16 years do not give you enough to call it a trend. It's more of a fluctuation. It's just recently we have enough data collected to begin to use it in a statistically significant way. And doing that we find it to fit a global warming, not a global cooling. I could find you references but I won't today :)

If you really expect your data competent enough, then take it up with the right sites :)

Ahh, 2002 was it :) That's 11 years. You need at least 30-40 years, preferably more. I think the English Admiralty have some rather interesting historical weather observations from their sailing ships, around the globe, though, if I remember right? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/i/Fact_sheet_No._12.pdf
« Last Edit: 02/04/2013 18:45:34 by yor_on »
 

The Naked Scientists Forum

Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #49 on: 02/04/2013 17:59:25 »

 

SMF 2.0.10 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums
 
Login
Login with username, password and session length