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Author Topic: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS  (Read 2655 times)

Offline stewgreen

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Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« on: 18/02/2014 18:05:16 »
Absolutely appalling edition of the Naked Scientists podcast from the AAAS in Chicago Mon, 17 Feb  climate change and whether weather is getting more extreme, designing a smarter power grid to integrate sustainable power..
  - Chris, ignored the 999 scientists who collect their PROPER evidence first & broadcasts the 1 scientist who will jump the gun & express certainty, but who can give NO proper evidence .. Well Ididn't hear any broadcast.
 
- So that's NakedScientists bigging up Extreme Weather/CC link just like people did with MMR/autism.
.. and spitting in the face of proper scientific method. 
 
- Should be Proper Evidence first then certainty,
- Science is VALIDATED your theories by predicting things before they happen, not goal poaching by right at the end. "yeh drought, just like I said", " yeh, floods/winds just like I said"

NS should know what is the difference between VALIDATED SCIENCE and people over-extrapolating certainty from their passionate opinions, which come from a basis in science. This phrase "is consistent with"certainty is so similar to the MMR/autism scare.
- If Wakefield had sound MMR science, he would be able to produce multiple proper trial data showing a link between autism and MMR. That would be validated by an ability to predict that groups with vaccinations got more Autism cases than similar groups.
- As we know he "jumped the gun" and went beyond-science in over extrapolating certainty from his opinion. Given the chance he would have behaved like this claiming events (flooding) as his own after they occurred (post hoc) and shouting for action. Validation of this theory doesn't come from goal poaching at the end, but rather from consistently being able to predict patterns of extreme weather well in advance.
 
 Jumping the gun is not the way science is done, you collect your  proper evidence, and then claim victory. Not claim CERTAINTY and call for Action NOW ...& get your evidence later.


 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« Reply #1 on: 20/02/2014 17:56:07 »
There's very little evidence of extreme weather, but plenty of evidence of human occupation of marginal territory. A hundred years ago, nobody would have built a nuclear power station on any coast; Florida was mostly virgin swampland; Canada was pioneer country; coastal habitation was mostly lowlying stone cottages occupied by professional seamen with wooden boats, or fortified harbours - not tall apartment blocks surrounded by plastic yachts. If we fill unpromising terrain with fragile structures and consider 24/7 grid electricity to be one of life's necessities, we are increasingly vulnerable to perfectly ordinary weather.

When I was a kid, we learned about a prehistoric village built on an artificial island in a swamp near Glastonbury. Nothing seems to have changed except for people's expectations of normality.
Quote
The village was built in about 300BC and occupied into the early Roman period (around 100AD) when it was abandoned, possibly due to a rise in the water level.[3] It was built on a morass on an artificial foundation of timber filled with brushwood, bracken, rubble and clay.[4]
« Last Edit: 20/02/2014 17:57:38 by alancalverd »
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« Reply #2 on: 06/03/2014 18:34:57 »
?

The weather is getting more extreme, although statistically we do not have conclusive evidence. It depends on what your time scale is. If we wait a hundred years we should have rather convincing statistics. When temperature and humidity goes up over a Earth, as those two goes together, you can expect extreme weather conditions, like heat waves - droughts, precipitation events - floods etc. It's more energy in the Earth system, more heat. It depends on where you live what you will experience, although there's no knowing yet exactly how it will express itself geographically. After all, climate cover a earth, your own local weather is one interconnected part of that climate and I don't think anyone, yet, can tell us exactly what will happen where, except in vague terms.
==

http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/
« Last Edit: 06/03/2014 18:45:36 by yor_on »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« Reply #3 on: 06/03/2014 19:23:06 »
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The weather is getting more extreme, although statistically we do not have conclusive evidence
In other words, it equally probably isn't!

More heat does not mean more extreme weather. The weather in the Sahara, with lots of heat, is very predictable, that in the Arctic rather less so, and in the sub-Arctic (like the British Isles) it's damn near random! The reason is that weather is caused by the interaction of hot, humid and cold, dry air, and these islands sit at the junction of the polar anticyclone and the warm atlantic breeze. An overall increase in global temperature, the inevitable consequence of the water cycle, will probably mean increased precipitation in temperate latitudes but no significant change in the hottest or coldest places.
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« Reply #4 on: 06/03/2014 20:51:13 »
Depends, as long as the statistics isn't clear there's room for all sorts of interpretations I guess? As for myself I think that with more heat and more humidity we will see more severe storms. Doesn't necessarily mean that we will find a greater amount of them, but I would expect at least some of those that come to be worse than we're used to. I also would say that there is a cautious scientific consensus :) on that storms are expected to be worse. Have a look at http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme-weather-global-warming-intermediate.htm  and some of the studies they refer to.
 

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Re: Extreme Weather MMR in edition from the AAAS
« Reply #4 on: 06/03/2014 20:51:13 »

 

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