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Offline thedoc

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Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« on: 13/03/2014 10:42:27 »
Is the extreme weather of recent years a consequence of climate change? Nobel prize winner Don Wuebbles argues that it is...
Read a transcript of the interview by clicking here
or Listen to it now or [download as MP3]
« Last Edit: 13/03/2014 10:42:27 by _system »


 

Offline MeatAndPotatoes

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #1 on: 09/06/2014 16:44:36 »
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth that the climate wasn't changing?
 

Offline David Cooper

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #2 on: 09/06/2014 18:30:47 »
It's about rate of change and recklessly messing with something which is gernerally stable and which we rely upon ramaining stable.
 

Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #3 on: 09/06/2014 19:16:47 »
It is very difficult to track changing storm patterns.  There is a huge recording and detection bias, and just a couple of decades, most weak tornadoes were either not detected, or not recorded.  Rare events such as Cat-5 Hurricane landfalls are not common enough to calculate changes in probability. 

Around here, of the storms in the last 50 years or so, most of them were before my time.
Columbus Day Storm (Big Blow) of 1962 so far has been unmatched.
Our record snowfall was in 1969
Biggest Flood, "Christmas Flood" 1964.

Once a century weather events...  happen about once a century.
Once a millennium weather events...  happen sometime.

The big question is whether global warming will bring drier, or wetter weather.  Likely some areas will benefit, and others will be harmed. 

Sea rise is concerning.  However, some of the calculations also include a geostatic estimate that the ocean basins are getting larger, so a fudge factor is added in not related to direct observations of sea levels.  One of the concerns is that many places are actually sinking due to factors such as ground water removal and flood control.

Conservation is still a good idea.
 

Online alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #4 on: 15/06/2014 20:50:12 »
There's a serious problem of observation bias here. How do you measure the severity of a storm?

1. You need someone or something to be there. Sensibly, our ancestors tended to live in fairly benign places so we have very little data of pre-1900 storms in the Arctic, Antarctic, or US swamplands.

2. You need some survivable means of measuring something. Pre-satellite data comes only from hand-held instruments. Fragile sailing ships lost at sea did not provide any records but a modern bulk carrier, trawler, icebreaker or warship can collect a lot of reportable data and return from a Force 12 with all hands. More trade = more data. Time was that when the wind got too strong, land-based meteorologists just said "close the airport" and went home, but nowadays you can sit in an office and monitor hurricanes remotely: better instruments = more data.

3. You need a meaningful and consistent definition of "extreme". A hundred years ago, the few people who lived on the southeastern coasts of the USA earned their living from the sea, lived in stone cottages, and worked rugged wooden boats. So a village might cost less than $1M to repair after a couple of days of hurricane. Nowadays the area is densely populated by pensioners in glass-fronted high rise apartments, with metal cars and plastic yachts all over the place. A few minutes of Force 10 will break everything in sight and cost zillions to repair. No change in weather, just a more fragile civilisation.

4. There's money to be made and an academic career to pursue by claiming that anthropogenic climate change is significant and a Bad Thing, so whatever the facts, only the bad news gets reported.

In fact the frequency of severe landfall hurricanes measured by average wind speed over a few hours, has decreased in the USA since 1960.
 

Offline yor_on

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #5 on: 16/06/2014 17:24:34 »
Sure it is. It has to, considering the new man made amount of energy that is getting stored inside Earths atmospheric envelope, relative the 'empty space' outside earths exosphere. How it will act regionally/locally is another thing, and I suspect very hard to predict. I mean, it's no different from weather predictions today, only more volatile as the energy goes up.
==

This is still one of the nicest introductions to global warming I've read, although not new in any way, just well written and makes you ponder.. Towards curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal's Contribution to make a difference
« Last Edit: 16/06/2014 17:39:04 by yor_on »
 

Offline tkadm30

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #6 on: 31/03/2016 21:37:40 »
Storm amplification is a direct effect of solar geoengineering with coal fly ash particles.   
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #7 on: 01/04/2016 08:39:23 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?

 

Offline tkadm30

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #8 on: 01/04/2016 11:48:33 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?

Yes. I did my research.

Quote
We have seen that the US and UK have had the ability to cause massive floods and droughts for decades, and have used the technologies to devastating effect – even on their own people. Indeed, a US Navy weather modification document acquired by Wired magazine stated that the purposes of weather warfare are: ‘(1) To impede or deny the movement of personnel and material because of rains, floods, snow-blizzards, etc. (2) To disrupt economy due to the effect of floods, droughts, etc.’

http://weatherwarfare.worldatwar.info/docs/weatherweapons.pdf

http://www.wired.com/2008/02/navy-research-p/

http://cryptome.org/weather-war.pdf
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #9 on: 01/04/2016 12:04:29 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?

Yes. I did my research.

Quote
We have seen that the US and UK have had the ability to cause massive floods and droughts for decades, and have used the technologies to devastating effect – even on their own people. Indeed, a US Navy weather modification document acquired by Wired magazine stated that the purposes of weather warfare are: ‘(1) To impede or deny the movement of personnel and material because of rains, floods, snow-blizzards, etc. (2) To disrupt economy due to the effect of floods, droughts, etc.’

http://weatherwarfare.worldatwar.info/docs/weatherweapons.pdf

http://www.wired.com/2008/02/navy-research-p/

http://cryptome.org/weather-war.pdf

Your first quote has it's first reference as ;

www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2001/
aug/30/sillyseason.physicalsciences

SILLY SEASON!!!!
 

Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #10 on: 01/04/2016 12:17:43 »
Another wild card variable is connected to how the media deals with climate change. For example, if there is one airline crash, this can get so much coverage and expert analysis, some people will begin to think airline crashes have become a common event, worse than ever. All the planes are about to fall from then sky.

There is no sense of perspective given, such as comparing automobile and airline fatalities, or using a counter to add all the car accidents that occurred during the 3 day news cycle. This would give people a way to compare the data. This is not offered since the hype work better with lop sided analysis.

Along with the TV and printed news is cable news outlets, internet, etc. There is a lot of competition for advertiser dollars such that everyone is looking for something to hold the audience captive. The test proven way is to hype disaster. Good news causes people to go about their business, while bad news causes then to stay put. This allows more commercial revenue.

Manmade global warming was rebranded to climate change. This is the new Coke of meteorology. Global warming was simple and is defined an objective measure; temperature. People can look out and see with or without expert hype. This gave the consumer of informal†ion too much objectivity.

They came up with a new branding called climate change which is far more nebulous. It was smart marketing, since climate always changes and anything that happens defines an immediate litmus test for the consumer. It does not even have to be related to global warming, but it will be connected through inference of those who wish to believe. Many people have begun to drink this new soft drink and need to be warmed to too much caffeine and sugar.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #11 on: 01/04/2016 15:07:09 »
1. You need someone or something to be there. Sensibly, our ancestors tended to live in fairly benign places so we have very little data of pre-1900 storms in the Arctic, Antarctic, or US swamplands.

2. You need some survivable means of measuring something. Pre-satellite data comes only from hand-held instruments. Fragile sailing ships lost at sea did not provide any records but a modern bulk carrier, trawler, icebreaker or warship can collect a lot of reportable data and return from a Force 12 with all hands. More trade = more data. Time was that when the wind got too strong, land-based meteorologists just said "close the airport" and went home, but nowadays you can sit in an office and monitor hurricanes remotely: better instruments = more data.

3. You need a meaningful and consistent definition of "extreme". A hundred years ago, the few people who lived on the southeastern coasts of the USA earned their living from the sea, lived in stone cottages, and worked rugged wooden boats. So a village might cost less than $1M to repair after a couple of days of hurricane. Nowadays the area is densely populated by pensioners in glass-fronted high rise apartments, with metal cars and plastic yachts all over the place. A few minutes of Force 10 will break everything in sight and cost zillions to repair. No change in weather, just a more fragile civilisation.

4. There's money to be made and an academic career to pursue by claiming that anthropogenic climate change is significant and a Bad Thing, so whatever the facts, only the bad news gets reported.

In fact the frequency of severe landfall hurricanes measured by average wind speed over a few hours, has decreased in the USA since 1960.
1. That's not true at all. In fact, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines because that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources. That's why there were civilizations all over the world in all sorts of different climates, many of them extreme.

2. One of the most important parts of the Scientific Method is using that data to make predictions. The more accurate the predictions, the more likely the theory is to be correct. As I have pointed out a number of times, the predictions made in books I've been reading since about 1988 is that fossil fuel consumption is going to result in higher temperatures, and since then, data. data, and more accurate data has not indicated that global temperatures are falling.

3. Cost of storm damage is not the way a scientist would evaluate storm severity. That's how a politically conservative person would look at it in terms of economics. A scientist would be more likely to suggest that, if August and September are the months when warm oceans produce the most and strongest hurricanes on average, then a late October/early November storm like Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic storm on record, is something of an anomaly.

4. False, and I don't know how many times I have to point this out. The SCIENTIFIC METHOD is specifically designed to get the bias OUT of science, whether that is religious bias, or political bias, or personal feelings. Again, the IPCC does not consist of Liberal Democrats. There are scientists on the IPCC from communist, socialist, capitalist, and countries of all political stripes all over the world that are 97% in agreement that anthropogenic climate change is real, and they all used the SCIENTIFIC METHOD to arrive at that conclusion. Again, oil producers, the largest and most profitable companies in the US, receive tens of billions a year in subsidies and tax breaks, not including what they make at the pump. That makes the grant money offered to scientists to study climate change look like pocket change, and you know it.

Your last fact not only includes no citation, it completely disregards non-landfall hurricanes. Those have to be considered in the total, or you've biased the data to support your argument. We're not just talking about the ones that hit land. We're talking about whether storms are getting stronger or more frequent IN GENERAL. Just because a hurricane veers North doesn't mean it's any less severe. Turning up the heat of the atmosphere makes the movement of air currents more erratic, so maybe more hurricanes will veer North. That would not imply that it's getting cooler or hurricanes are "less frequent."

Again, do you work for an oil company? Or were you planted here by the Koch brothers?
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 15:14:30 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Online alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #12 on: 01/04/2016 17:27:31 »

, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines because that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources.
Fault lines don't cause storms.

Quote
the predictions made in books I've been reading since about 1988 is that fossil fuel consumption is going to result in higher temperatures, and since then, data. data, and more accurate data has not indicated that global temperatures are falling.
Nobody has questioned the recent temperature record. The question is about "severe" storms.

Quote
Cost of storm damage is not the way a scientist would evaluate storm severity.
True, but it is the only credible historic record, and still only relates to storms in relatively urban areas where damage is estimable in cash terms.

Quote
The SCIENTIFIC METHOD is specifically designed to get the bias OUT of science, whether that is religious bias, or political bias, or personal feelings.
We do our best, but if I may quote just one fatal example - the Challenger disaster -
 
Quote
The Rogers Commission found NASA's organizational culture and decision-making processes had been key contributing factors to the accident,[2] with the agency violating its own safety rules. NASA managers had known since 1977 that contractor Morton Thiokol's design of the SRBs contained a potentially catastrophic flaw in the O-rings, but they had failed to address this problem properly. They also disregarded warnings (an example of "go fever") from engineers about the dangers of launching posed by the low temperatures of that morning, and failed to adequately report these technical concerns to their superiors........On the night of the disaster, President Ronald Reagan had been scheduled to give his annual State of the Union address.

I'll leave you to study any other examples of politically motivated cockups such as Lysenkoism , the elimination of Chinese sparrows....

Or perhaps you can provide a counterexample where an academic scientist received government grant funding to challenge the notion of anthropogeninc global warming (incidentally, as all the IPCC predictions of thermal doom have turned out to be wrong, they no longer call it global warming - climate change is the fashionable term).
 
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.

Quote
Again, do you work for an oil company? Or were you planted here by the Koch brothers?
If only! About 50 years ago I spent 3 months working on the viscometry of aerial cropspraying emulsifiers with Shell Chemicals but they don't owe me anything and I've had no further contact with any petrochemical industry. One of my research interests is in the hydrogen-powered car and the possibility of synthesising aviation fuel from CO2 and water,  so if anything I'm in competition with the oil companies.
 

Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #13 on: 02/04/2016 12:20:44 »
In America, opinions about climate change, formerly called global warming, is divided down political lines. Conservatives tend to use the test proven trends of the past to judge the present, while liberals tend to ignore the past and/or revise the past, and then follow the narrower time scale of the latest fad. One might be able to infer how the divide, down these difference in political instincts, reflect the nature of data collection. 

When someone says this is the warmest year in record, they are only taking about a narrow time scale of 100 years or so. We are not tallish about the long term history of the earth. It sounds like the history of the earth; on the record, but it is not. On the record is only based on when science began to keep accurate records. It ignores most of earth history, when formal records were not being kept, but when weather and climate change was also occurring. It sort of revises history by default; different data collection methods.

We can infer the weather of the distant past, before the formal records, using other techniques, such as ice core samples. However, these techniques will not tell us much in terms of the day to day changes in weather and climate we can see with modern tools; as seen on TV. Based on all the hard data (using two techniques) one would have to conclude, there is more recorded variety of climate change, today, than ever in history. It is data trick. There is a short term illusion, that appeals to liberals, based on technicalities. It would be like saying abortion is a natural thing, even though wide spread abortion is only possible due to modern science. An illusion is created that satisfies short term thinking.

Maybe one way to level the playing field is to run a test where all climate data has to be collected using the same techniques we use for climate data from 1M year ago. For example, we can't use thermometers nor can use directly measure CO2, but we can only use cores samples and tree rings. Core data will not tell us each and every tornado and micro-burst. This level playing field will make things look much quieter. It is more conservative.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 12:27:32 by puppypower »
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #14 on: 02/04/2016 14:32:12 »
Fault lines don't cause storms.
I didn't say that. I said civilizations tend to locate themselves near resources, which are exposed by fault lines. YOU suggested civilizations pick locations based on mild weather, which is NOT true.

Here's the quote: "In fact, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines BECAUSE [emphasis mine] that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources."

Nothing about faults causing storms in that statement. I used to tutor in college. Can I offer you a lesson in reading comprehension?
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 14:44:13 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #15 on: 02/04/2016 14:39:55 »
Conservatives tend to use the test proven trends of the past to judge the present, while liberals tend to ignore the past and/or revise the past, and then follow the narrower time scale of the latest fad.
COMPREHENSIVELY FALSE.

Much closer to the truth: Liberals invest in programs that they believe will pay off in the future, while conservatives want to cut programs unless they pay off today. Liberals seek progress and embrace change, conservatives like things the way they used to be. Liberals look to climate scientists for guidance, conservatives go outside in the middle of winter, make snowballs, then come back inside to show the president their "evidence."
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 14:48:47 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #16 on: 02/04/2016 14:58:23 »
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change, unless they are reporting on a reversal of the trend, or a drop in per capita energy consumption per human. Until things like that happen, there isn't going to be any good news. That's going to happen later than sooner because people like you keep casting doubt on the work of credible scientists and attempting to discredit sensible people like myself.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #17 on: 02/04/2016 15:03:37 »
Or perhaps you can provide a counterexample where an academic scientist received government grant funding to challenge the notion of anthropogeninc global warming (incidentally, as all the IPCC predictions of thermal doom have turned out to be wrong, they no longer call it global warming - climate change is the fashionable term).
Academic scientists would tend to follow the Scientific Method, so perhaps that's what's stopping them from applying for such a grant. You should follow that example. Then you won't make foolish suggestions, like that climate science is subject to fads. That's an insult to real scientists.

If you want some money for a study like that, don't ask the government, ask GMC or Standard Oil. They'll fund your study.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 15:08:38 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #18 on: 02/04/2016 15:08:33 »
Why would I want to conduct a biased study?
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #19 on: 02/04/2016 15:11:17 »
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth that the climate wasn't changing?
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth when 100,000,000 years worth of fossil fuels went up in smoke in 150 years?

https://nca2009.globalchange.gov/sites/default/files/images/1_Global_Page13-e.png

That indicates a problem.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 15:14:32 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #20 on: 02/04/2016 21:58:33 »
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,

http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Quote
If increases in atmospheric CO2 were occurring without the possibility of associated changes in climate then, overall, the consequences for agriculture would probably be beneficial. CO2 is vital for photosynthesis, and the evidence is that increases in CO2 concentration would increase the rate of plant growth. Photosynthesis is the net accumulation of carbohydrates formed by the uptake of CO2, so it increases with increasing CO2. A doubling of CO2 may increase the photosynthetic rate by 30 to 100%,

Sounds good to me.
 

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #21 on: 02/04/2016 23:29:58 »
It's certainly good enough for local market gardeners who use diesel generators to make...CO2! They sell the electricity as a useless byproduct and pipe the gas into their greenhouses to accelerate plant growth. The glasshouse atmosphere is actually toxic to humans.   
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #22 on: 03/04/2016 14:11:27 »
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,
http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html
"Reproduced, with permission, from: Parry, M. L. 1990."

Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?
 

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #23 on: 03/04/2016 14:41:17 »
Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?
Since plant physiology has not changed significantly in 26 years, what would be the point of rewriting the obvious?

Quote
The most cited work in history, for example, is a 1951 paper describing an assay to determine the amount of protein in a solution. It has now gathered more than 305,000 citations — a recognition that always puzzled its lead author, the late US biochemist Oliver Lowry.

In my student days we had a competition to quote the oldest relevant paper in our PhD theses. I think the winner was dated 1742 - not bad for a thesis based on a linear accelerator. The impressive aspect of Galileo, Kepler, Newton, et al is that their publications remain valid to this day because the laws they discovered have not changed - ever.

The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings. 
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #24 on: 03/04/2016 14:59:24 »
The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings.
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be. The planet isn't warming up for no reason, which is the conclusion I would come to if I listened to you, Bored Chemist and Tim the Plumber, because between the three of you, you've now argued that neither the heat nor the CO2 is having a significant effect. So, where is it coming from? The hot air you're all blowing?

Again, the highest the CO2 content had been for 800,000 years was 320 ppm. We went from 320 to 400 in 50 years. That's a full 20% increase over "natural" levels, and parallels the news reports of record high temperatures for the last couple of decades.

Sorry, even if I hadn't taken any science courses in college, I would still tend to believe that burning 100 million years worth of coal and oil probably would cause a slight rise in global temperatures. I mean, I learned way back in 2nd grade that the atmosphere acts like a blanket. What happens when you cover up with a thicker blanket, then pull the blanket over your face so your breath warms the space under the blanket? Duh. Even a kid intuitively recognizes how this process works.

Because I DID take some science courses in college, I am aware that the expression of CO2 warming the atmosphere is just another manifestation of the original mass/energy conversion that took place during combustion. After a combustion reaction, the remaining particles have different properties than the fossil fuel did.

https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

Please note, that's a ".org" site from the American Institute for Physics, not a 26-year-old paper on plants, soil, pests and disease like Tim the Plumber posted.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2016 15:17:30 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
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