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Author Topic: Is climate change causing more severe storms?  (Read 9496 times)

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #25 on: 03/04/2016 16:37:48 »
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,
http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html
"Reproduced, with permission, from: Parry, M. L. 1990."

Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?

Do you consider an increase in plant effectiveness at making more plant to be a good thing? I do. Especially when it is in the range of 30% to 100 %.

I have also seen the figure of 11% increase in vegitation across the dru bits of Africa.

Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #26 on: 03/04/2016 16:45:58 »
The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings.
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be. The planet isn't warming up for no reason, which is the conclusion I would come to if I listened to you, Bored Chemist and Tim the Plumber, because between the three of you, you've now argued that neither the heat nor the CO2 is having a significant effect. So, where is it coming from? The hot air you're all blowing?

The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this. But there have always been lots of changes in climate. Natural factors cause the climate to change lots. Why is the period 1979 to now different? Why does the period 1979 to now give any cause for concearn?

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Again, the highest the CO2 content had been for 800,000 years was 320 ppm. We went from 320 to 400 in 50 years. That's a full 20% increase over "natural" levels, and parallels the news reports of record high temperatures for the last couple of decades.

But since the last 18 years have seen no significant warming then factors other than CO2 must be in play. CO2 looks increasingly weak as a forcing agent.

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Sorry, even if I hadn't taken any science courses in college, I would still tend to believe that burning 100 million years worth of coal and oil probably would cause a slight rise in global temperatures. I mean, I learned way back in 2nd grade that the atmosphere acts like a blanket. What happens when you cover up with a thicker blanket, then pull the blanket over your face so your breath warms the space under the blanket? Duh. Even a kid intuitively recognizes how this process works.

What happens if you add a postage stamp onto your blanket as an additional blanket? Numbers matter.

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Because I DID take some science courses in college, I am aware that the expression of CO2 warming the atmosphere is just another manifestation of the original mass/energy conversion that took place during combustion. After a combustion reaction, the remaining particles have different properties than the fossil fuel did.

https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

What are you talking about? This is nothing to do with any college course. What degree or whatever did you ever get?

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Please note, that's a ".org" site from the American Institute for Physics, not a 26-year-old paper on plants, soil, pests and disease like Tim the Plumber posted.

As has been pointed out to you good science stays around and is not changed. It does not matter how old a paper is.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #27 on: 03/04/2016 17:23:26 »
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be.

No.

1. Water is the dominant greenhouse gas/liquid/solid. It is responsible for the bounded chaotic oscillation of temperature that we have seen in the few reliable historic records. Nothing else accounts for the rapid rses and slow falls of surface temperature over thousands of years.

2. As shown by the Mauna Loa data, carbon dioxide concentration is, in the absence of anthopogenic factors, a function of temperature, due to the reduced solubility of CO2 in sea water and the increased metabolism of coldblooded creatures at elevated temperatures.

3. The infrared absorption of CO2 is demonstrably close to saturation in the atmosphere, and is in any case negligible compared with that of water.

Phenomenon 2 explains the correlation between CO2 and temperature, but as shown by the Vostok and Mauna Loa data, since "natural" CO2 always lags behind temperature, CO2 cannot be a significant driver of climate change.

Phenomenon 3 shows that the anthropogenic addition of CO2 to the atmosphere cannot make a significant addition to global temperature.This has been borne out by the failure of every CO2-driven model to predict what actually happened since Arrhenius' seminal paper. 

Calculations elsewhere in this forum have shown that the maximum possible contribution of fossil fuel combustion is about 0.005 degrees .

As I've said before, physics is about numbers, not adjectives.

 
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #28 on: 04/04/2016 16:12:05 »
The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this.
If you don't know why, you don't need to be commenting like you are some kind of expert.

If alancalverd was DOING HIS JOB AS MODERATOR, he would calling you out on your nonsense rather than nitpicking at my actual science.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #29 on: 04/04/2016 16:15:38 »
carbon dioxide concentration is, in the absence of anthopogenic factors, a function of temperature
Thanks for proving my point. If we get rid of anthropogenic factors, we won't have anything to worry about. Simple.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #30 on: 04/04/2016 16:21:38 »
Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?
Did you even read what you linked to?? Because it looks to me like you mined a quote, then ignored the context:

EFFECTS ON IMPACTS FROM CLIMATIC EXTREMES

"Levels of risk such as these may well be altered quite markedly by apparently small changes in mean climate, particularly the risk of successive extremes, which can quickly lead to famine in food-deficit regions.

"To illustrate, suppose that extremely dry summers (of a kind that can cause severe food shortage in a given region) occur at present with a probability of P = 0.1. The return period of the occurrence of a single drought is, therefore, 10 years, while the return period for the occurrence of two successive droughts is 100 years (assuming a normal distribution of frequencies). A change in climate can lead to a change in P, either through altered variability which will change P directly, and/or through a change in mean conditions that must also change P if drought is judged relative to an absolute threshold. Alternatively, P may change through changes in some critical impact threshold as a result of altered land use, increasing population pressure, and so forth. If P becomes 0.2, then the return period of a single drought is halved to 5 years. The return period for two successive droughts, however, is reduced by a factor of four to only 25 years.[26, 27] Thus, not only is agriculture often sensitive to climatic extremes, but the risk of climatic extremes may be very sensitive to relatively small changes in the mean climate.

"The sensitivity of marginal farmers to climatic change may be especially great. The reason for this is that, near the margins of cultivation, the probability of critical levels of warmth or moisture required to avoid crop failure or a critical crop shortfall tends to increase not linearly but quasi-exponentially towards the margin of cultivation (Figure 4.6). Marginal areas are thus commonly characterized by a very steep "risk surface", with the result that any changes in average warmth or aridity, or in their variability, would have a marked effect on the level of risk in agriculture.

"For the reasons given above, much of the impact on agriculture from climatic change can be expected to stem from the effects of extreme events. Consider, first, the significantly increased costs resulting from increased frequency of extremely hot days causing heat stress in crops. In the central USA the number of days with temperatures above 35deg.C, particularly at the time of grain filling, has a significant negative effect on maize and wheat yields.[29, 30, 31] The incidence of these very hot days is likely to increase substantially with a quite small increase in mean temperature. For example, in Iowa, in the US Corn Belt, an increase in mean temperature of only 1 .7deg.C may bring about a three-fold increase in the probability of 5 consecutive days with a maximum temperature over 35DEG.C.[32] At the southern edge of the Corn Belt, where maize is already grown near its maximal temperature-tolerance limit, such an increase could have a very deleterious effect on yield.

"The increase in risk of heat stress on crops and livestock due to global warming could be especially important in tropical and subtropical t regions where temperate cereals are currently grown near their limit of heat tolerance. For example, in northern India, where GCM experiments indicate an increase in mean annual temperature of about 4deg.C, wheat production might no longer be viable.

"An important additional effect of warming, especially in temperate regions, is likely to be the reduction of winter chilling (vernalization). Many temperate crops require a period of low temperatures in winter either to initiate or to accelerate the flowering process. Low vernalization results in low flower-bud initiation and, ultimately, reduced yields. A 1deg.C warming could reduce effective winter chilling by between 10 and 30 per cent.[33]

"Changes in rainfall could have a similarly magnified impact. For example, if mean rainfall in the Corn Belt in March (which is about 100 mm [4 inches]) decreased by 10 per cent (an amount projected by some GCMs under a 2 x CO2 climate) this would raise the probability of less than 25 mm [1 inch] being received by 46 per cent. For cattle, crops and trees a 1 per cent reduction in rainfall could mean that drought-related yield losses increase by as much as a half.[34]"

Here's that source you posted again: http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Now, are you going to deny the science in your own link?

« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 16:25:23 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #31 on: 04/04/2016 16:29:07 »
Calculations elsewhere in this forum have shown that the maximum possible contribution of fossil fuel combustion is about 0.005 degrees .
Yes, but that's in a forum full of skeptics with you as a moderator. Serious physicists and scientists don't often make a habit of frequenting forums full of crackpots.
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #32 on: 04/04/2016 17:12:49 »
The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this.
If you don't know why, you don't need to be commenting like you are some kind of expert.

If alancalverd was DOING HIS JOB AS MODERATOR, he would calling you out on your nonsense rather than nitpicking at my actual science.

You make claims that you cannot support. I don't. I admit the limits of my knowledge.

You would understand that this is the very first pricipal of the scientific method if you were capable of learning anything you did not like.
 

Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #33 on: 04/04/2016 17:17:44 »
Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?
Did you even read what you linked to?? Because it looks to me like you mined a quote, then ignored the context:

[lots]

Here's that source you posted again: http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Now, are you going to deny the science in your own link?

Not at all. You said that there was nothing good about increased CO2. I posted the link to this paper which i am sure you will agree is definately on the alarmist side of the debate in general in which they say that a doubling of CO2 would increase photosynthisis by between 30% and 100%. That bit I think is a good thing.

The rest I disagree with in that I do not see strong evidence for increased extreme weather patterns. There seems to not have been such things in previous warm periods and I see no reason to expect anything different in today's warmish period whatever the reason for the warming.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #34 on: 04/04/2016 17:32:52 »

According to NOAA, so the answer is no. But who cares about data? Climate change is politics!
 

Offline JoeBrown

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #35 on: 05/04/2016 01:47:05 »
In my opinion(s) - these are my opinions, because I'm not qualified to state them as fact, but I as understand these specific opinions are in agreement with scientific facts presented as my opinions.

To me the single most clear fact about severity of any individual instance of weather is directly proportional to the amount of atmospheric water content.

That's probably stated (or should be) somewhere in a meteorology 101.  I just made it, but one opinion I think isn't fact but...  but by all accounts it is the single most important factor of any given weather event.

Now climate (settings?) behavior and ocean temperature is probably the single most significant reason for climates to vary in many aspects of any indicator of one measure of Earths temperature in degrees toward the climate.

What has caused the Oceans to change temperature is indicated by scientific reasoning that its attributed to human activity, right or wrong isn't necessarily inconsequential to the fact that all scientific studies agree the temperature and height of the ocean are both rising.

While one republic party who happens to have the most current control of United States congressional activity and/or inactivities seems to completely ignore the fact that the oceans will likely rise about 3' by the end of the current century mark.  That being the case the Florida keys will be what virtually all that Florida will be at that particular point in time.  If the party in control maintains ignorance of what will happen regardless of cause, said party will likely assume all blame for said ignorance.

Time will be the judge, jury and executioner of such ignorance.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #36 on: 05/04/2016 14:58:53 »
You make claims that you cannot support. I don't. I admit the limits of my knowledge.
No, you DON'T admit the limits of your knowledge. Again, have you even taken one college level science course? I took four, two biology, two physics. I got good grades because I learned the material. On top of that, I've read a few hundred pounds of science books over the last 25 years or so.

You obviously come here armed with Google key word searches and confirmation biases. I don't believe you studied chemistry. I know science well enough to discern this; key concepts elude you, but you always seem to come up with details about them that you use to nitpick the argument. Learn your science correctly, please.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #37 on: 05/04/2016 15:05:15 »
Time will be the judge, jury and executioner of such ignorance.
That time is now. Again, I read Jeremy Rifkin's Entropy: Into the Greenhouse World way back in 1988. They say the best proof of a theory is its ability to make predictions. Rifkin made A LOT of predictions, and I've watched them fall one by one like dominoes.

One thing he didn't predict: People would still be this argumentative and politically polarized after two and a half decades of compelling evidence and ominously accurate predictions.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #38 on: 05/04/2016 15:12:24 »

According to NOAA, so the answer is no. But who cares about data? Climate change is politics!
Okay, let me baby feed you the science here. When you add energy to the atmosphere, that affect air currents. When you warm the ocean, that adds to the effect. So, a higher percentage of hurricanes might turn North before they make landfall.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE STORMS ARE WEAKER, OR THAT THERE ARE LESS OF THEM.

YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS BEING A MODERATOR AT A SCIENCE FORUM.

YOU ARE POLITICALLY BIASED AND DISREGARD THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #39 on: 05/04/2016 16:21:15 »
a higher percentage of hurricanes might turn North before they make landfall.

When did "might" become a substitute for data?

Quote
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth is roughly 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was last century......
For the 2015 Atlantic storm season, which begins June 1, the Weather Channel has projected a total of nine named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane. The 30-year average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.


 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #40 on: 06/04/2016 15:02:20 »

When did "might" become a substitute for data?

Today at 13:20:55, apparently.

That's when you posted a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.

That's right here in this thread if anyone would like to take a look, reply #379:

http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=65677.msg484974#new
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:28:41 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #41 on: 06/04/2016 15:34:43 »
 
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
Have you any idea what "anthropogenic" means? If you want to use big words, look them up first.

And beware of inferring causation from unidirectional correlation.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:36:45 by alancalverd »
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #42 on: 06/04/2016 16:13:27 »
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
Have you any idea what "anthropogenic" means? If you want to use big words, look them up first.

And beware of inferring causation from unidirectional correlation.
I don't need to look it up. I was an English minor in college, but even before that, way back in Mrs. Loftin's high school English class, we studied etymology. Consequently, I know "anthro" means "man" and "genic" means "originating from," so I know right off the bat that "anthropogenic" means "having human origins" even without looking it up.

You should be careful about posting graphs of studies conducted by "neurotheologists" as evidence that anthropogenic climate change is not real. When you did that, YOU inferred causation between the earth's magnetic field and changes in the composition of the atmosphere.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #43 on: 06/04/2016 16:32:28 »
When did "might" become a substitute for data?
When did ignoring data (hurricanes that make landfall) become a substitute for data?

"Might" is the appropriate word. When a pot of water is not quite boiling, there's a nice, smooth, torus-shaped roll to the water. One can predict where water in that pot is going to go. That smooth motion breaks down and becomes erratic as the temperature increases. The movement of the water will become entirely random by the time it reaches a boil. The atmosphere is no different. Hurricane tracks are already hard to predict, and it will be even more difficult to do so as the temperature of both the ocean and the atmosphere increase.

These basics are getting boring. Let me throw some more advanced science at you. Think about processes like alpha decay. It takes several wave functions to model the behavior of a particle, which moves in a chaotic fashion. Radioactivity is possible because when wave functions reinforce each other, that can allow a helium nucleus to "jump" outside the area of influence of the nucleus.

This is similar to extreme storms. Weather is a chaotic system. There are several functions involved in modelling that system. When you increase the value of one of those functions, the points where they reinforce each other take on more extreme values. That's when you get severe weather, out-of-season weather, changing storm tracks, etc.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #44 on: 06/04/2016 16:33:05 »
Consequently, I know "anthro" means "man" and "genic" means "originating from," so I know right off the bat that "anthropogenic" means "having human origins" even without looking it up.

So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate. If I recall correctly , a self-advertised English minor recently wrote:

Quote
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.

 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #45 on: 06/04/2016 16:38:35 »

When did ignoring data (hurricanes that make landfall) become a substitute for data?


Not in my lifetime, which is why I posted a graph showing exactly that information, in response to a question about severe storms. If the data challenges your prejudices, you have the option of changing your mind, or complaining about those who present it to you. One of those responses is called "science", the other is beneath contempt.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #46 on: 06/04/2016 16:43:27 »
So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate. If I recall correctly , a self-advertised English minor recently wrote:

Quote
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
I don't know what you're trying to suggest here. You posted the graph. I merely looked up the crackpot study that went along with it.

I don't want to get into a discussion with you, Tim the Plumber and Bored Chemist about "big vs. small" again. You guys basically claim as a sum total of your arguments that applying combustion to 100 million years of fossil fuels couldn't possibly warm the Earth by a degree or two because the effects are too small, so I am curious to know if you think we could be changing the entire magnetic field of the Earth, generated by a gigantic mass of molten metal at the core, with our piddly little TV broadcasts, 50,000 watt radio stations and few hundred communication satellites.

According to the pseudoscientists in the article accompanying the graph you posted, our TV broadcasts might be affecting movie ticket prices...
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 16:48:18 by Craig W. Thomson »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #47 on: 06/04/2016 18:06:33 »
I don't know what you're trying to suggest here.
I was asking what you were trying to suggest. Or maybe the word "anthopogenic" just slipped in when you weren't thinking. Freudian?

Quote
I am curious to know if you think we could be changing the entire magnetic field of the Earth, generated by a gigantic mass of molten metal at the core, with our piddly little TV broadcasts, 50,000 watt radio stations and few hundred communication satellites.
A bizarre suggestion, if ever I heard one. Where on earth did you get such an idea? There's nothing in the graph or the paper about any anthropogenic causative factor that I can see. You might guess from the data that CO2 causes the magnetic field to alter, but I doubt that even your vast expertise in geophysics can propose a plausible mechanism  linking either to cinema tickets.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #48 on: 07/04/2016 16:07:30 »
I was asking what you were trying to suggest. Or maybe the word "anthopogenic" just slipped in when you weren't thinking. Freudian?
'
What were you trying to suggest, slipping in a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" as evidence to support your arguments?

Do you believe God lives in your neural pathways? Ask him what he thinks about your bogus science.
 

Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #49 on: 07/04/2016 16:15:05 »
So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate.
Man doesn't alter the earth's magnetic field. The core of the earth is molten, not solid and fixed, plus the earth rotates, so magnetic field reversals have been happening for millions of years. Slight changes in the magnetic field are common and the magnetic pole drifts.

Now, please explain to us all why you posted a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" that appears to correlate CO2 content of the atmosphere and magnetic field strength.
 

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
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