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Author Topic: Are random events down to luck?  (Read 5519 times)

Offline allan marsh

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Are random events down to luck?
« on: 26/07/2014 22:56:21 »
Are random events related to luck events?
« Last Edit: 29/07/2014 08:05:26 by chris »


 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #1 on: 26/07/2014 23:14:52 »
If you ask electrons, the answer is no.
 

Offline JP

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Re: Random events
« Reply #2 on: 26/07/2014 23:44:08 »
Are random events related to luck events?

What do you mean by luck events?  The term "luck" has no precise meaning in physics.
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #3 on: 27/07/2014 00:37:38 »
Are we sure matter/atom has no feeling/life of some form?
 

Offline Ethos_

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Re: Random events
« Reply #4 on: 27/07/2014 03:02:51 »
Are random events related to luck events?
As the last few posts have detailed, luck has very little meaning in physics. These random events you refer to have more to do with probability and opportunity than any thing else.
 

Offline PmbPhy

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Re: Random events
« Reply #5 on: 27/07/2014 03:41:04 »
Are random events related to luck events?
As the last few posts have detailed, luck has very little meaning in physics. These random events you refer to have more to do with probability and opportunity than any thing else.
If Schrodinger's cat is found to be alive then the cat is said to be lucky. :)
 

Offline Ethos_

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Re: Random events
« Reply #6 on: 27/07/2014 04:16:44 »


If Schrodinger's cat is found to be alive then the cat is said to be lucky. :)
How quaint!
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #7 on: 27/07/2014 17:54:29 »
Fusion reaction is pretty dam random events, electron has 100% probability and opportunity to collide with proton.

Did you see any luck? Then again we are so lucky not electrons.

« Last Edit: 27/07/2014 18:01:20 by jccc »
 

Offline allan marsh

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Re: Random events
« Reply #8 on: 27/07/2014 23:19:20 »
tossing a coin a few times has a random event chance. tossing the coin many times averages out the random chance to evens.

so do short term random events have a different rule as i seem to be lucky. of course in the universe i presume someone else doing the same test must be equally unlucky??
 

Offline dlorde

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Re: Random events
« Reply #9 on: 27/07/2014 23:31:20 »
Are we sure matter/atom has no feeling/life of some form?
There are many definitions of life, but they generally include a selection from reproduction, metabolism, homeostasis, growth,  adaptability, response to the environment, evolution. You should be able to work out for yourself whether any particular thing is likely to be alive. It's debatable whether some very small things, like viruses, are alive, but single atoms, molecules, or disorganised matter clearly aren't.
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #10 on: 28/07/2014 18:15:26 »
Read some article says within nucleus, zzzillions of quarks are mingle around.

Maybe every quark has a soul of some kind, too bad they don't like electrons at all.

Poor trons everywhere, where's justice?
 

Offline Bill S

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Re: Random events
« Reply #11 on: 28/07/2014 21:00:04 »
Quote from: Pete
If Schrodinger's cat is found to be alive then the cat is said to be lucky. :)

And if the person who picks her out of the box is scratched to ribbons, he is said to be unlucky. :)

As jccc says: "where's justice?"
 
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #12 on: 28/07/2014 23:00:18 »
Quote from: Pete
If Schrodinger's cat is found to be alive then the cat is said to be lucky. :)

And if the person who picks her out of the box is scratched to ribbons, he is said to be unlucky. :)

As jccc says: "where's justice?"

No worries. 50 years ago there were only 2 people understand GR.

I should say 80 years ago, but as you know time dilated a bit during world wars.
« Last Edit: 28/07/2014 23:29:19 by jccc »
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Random events
« Reply #13 on: 30/07/2014 02:05:15 »
tossing a coin a few times has a random event chance. tossing the coin many times averages out the random chance to evens.

so do short term random events have a different rule as i seem to be lucky. of course in the universe i presume someone else doing the same test must be equally unlucky??

Some times coin stands on its edge, makes you wow.

One time I tossed a coin during high, it was gone. No kidding.
« Last Edit: 30/07/2014 14:35:03 by jccc »
 

Offline Bill S

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #14 on: 30/07/2014 14:13:39 »
Quote
One time I tossed a coin high, it was gone. No kidding.

Three ministers of religion were discussing what they did with the collection money.
The Methodist Minister said: I count it and split it 50/50 with God.
The C of E Vicar said: I spread it on a table and mark a line down the middle. Anything to the left is mine, to the right is Gods".
The Catholic Priest said: I put it all in one collection plate, throw it up in the air and anything God wants he can hang on to.

Guess we know where your coin went, jccc.
 

Offline burning

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #15 on: 30/07/2014 18:31:12 »
tossing a coin a few times has a random event chance. tossing the coin many times averages out the random chance to evens.

This sounds pretty close to the gambler's falacy, so let's be precise. Every toss of a coin is independent of every other toss. If the coin is fair, that means there is no bias of heads over tails or vice versa. That's far from the same as saying that in the long run you shouldn't get more than one than the other.

Suppose you toss a fair coin an even number of times, N = 2n. If we only care about the number of heads and tails, it is true that the most probable outcome is that H = T. However, as N gets bigger, the probability of that specific outcome gets smaller. If we consider the difference between the number of heads and tails D = H - T, and we average the absolute value of that difference over all possible outcomes, |D|avg gets bigger as N gets bigger. The absolute value is important, because more heads than tails is just as likely as more tails than heads, but the more times you toss, the bigger the range of likely differences becomes.

Now there is a sense in which the results of the tosses "even out." While |D|avg gets bigger, |D|avg/N gets smaller. So if we imagine a game where I keep all the coins that come up heads, and you keep all the coins that come up tails; the longer we play, the bigger the margin that one of us is winning by is likely to become, but the smaller that margin becomes compared to the nearly equal amounts that each of us has received.

Quote
so do short term random events have a different rule as i seem to be lucky. of course in the universe i presume someone else doing the same test must be equally unlucky??

If we are talking about something like tossing coins, each toss follows the same rule, just as I said above. A long run of coin tosses doesn't follow any different rules that a short run. The difference between what we expect (in the mathematical sense) from a long run and a short run is entirely down to the fact that a long run has a different set of possibilities available to it than a short run does.

Since I don't know what you mean by "lucky" it's hard to answer more precisely than that. I will say, however, that people are really lousy at recognizing true random behavior. If you toss a coin a large number of times and write down the results of the tosses, not only is it likely that you won't have exactly the same number of heads as tails, but you will probably have runs of heads and runs of tails that will look too long. They're not. We intuitively think that the heads and tails should be evenly distributed, but there are far more ways that you can come up with clusters of the same result consecutively than to have them spread out. If you have normal intuitions about probability, the collection of possible outcomes that look "lucky" to you is actually far greater than the collection of outcomes that look "normal" to you.
 

Offline allan marsh

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #16 on: 30/07/2014 22:36:53 »
Thanks for that!
Yes I well understand probability, sort of A level plus
But
I have lived in this village for 30 or more years.  Our next door neighbour has like us bought raffle tickets, year in year out. She is notorious for winning prizes at almost every raffle .
We call her exceptionally lucky which one could say it past the level of reasonable randomness!

Hope you win the 14 million to one lottery, hope you are lucky!
 

Offline Ethos_

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #17 on: 30/07/2014 22:46:44 »
Thanks for that!
Yes I well understand probability, sort of A level plus
But
I have lived in this village for 30 or more years.  Our next door neighbour has like us bought raffle tickets, year in year out. She is notorious for winning prizes at almost every raffle .
We call her exceptionally lucky which one could say it past the level of reasonable randomness!


Maybe she's not really lucky, maybe she just has better connections?
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #18 on: 31/07/2014 08:27:59 »
Quote
One time I tossed a coin high, it was gone. No kidding.

Three ministers of religion were discussing what they did with the collection money.
The Methodist Minister said: I count it and split it 50/50 with God.
The C of E Vicar said: I spread it on a table and mark a line down the middle. Anything to the left is mine, to the right is Gods".
The Catholic Priest said: I put it all in one collection plate, throw it up in the air and anything God wants he can hang on to.

Guess we know where your coin went, jccc.

My coins are on the table, only when I am broke, they wen to store.
 

Offline jccc

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
« Reply #19 on: 31/07/2014 20:40:23 »
Even dollartree don't like my pennies...
 

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Re: Are random events down to luck?
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