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Author Topic: Would the magnesium carbonate buffer in the ocean break as CO2 increases,When?  (Read 6218 times)

Offline Chondrally

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The politicians couldn't understand or respond to this even with all their advisers!

pH oscillation in ocean previous results
depend on equations from Zeebe and Wolf-
 Gladrow in book: CO2 in Seawater.

The following article depends entirely on the Diffusion equations for CO2 in water and O2 in

water at the air/ocean interface, and the equilibrium at the surface, solved down to depth at

varying temperature and pressure. It also, and more importantly, depends on the kinetics

equations for the salts and minerals in the ocean like phosphates, nitrates, sulphates, and other

known minerals like Calcium Carbonate (aragonite and calcite) and Magnesium Carbonate

(magnesite) and their kinetic balance with CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 in seawater as

described in the equations by Dr. Zeebe and Dr. Wolf-Gladrow in their book: CO2 in Seawater:

Equilibria, Kinetics, Isotopes. If those equations are incorrect then my results are incorrect. If

they are true, then logically from the software (debugged) the results below are true to the best

of anyones knowledge. They can and have been inspected. Also, if the pH equations of

Brookhaven National Lab scientist Dr. Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace are incorrect , then also

my results are incorrect. To the best of my knowledge all typos and errors have been removed

from the code over a period stretching from 2007 to present. To the best of my knowledge and

experience the equations of Zeebe and Wolf-Gladrow and the software and equations of Dr.

Ernie Lewis and Doug Wallace of Brookhaven National Labs are correct and verified.

One should bear in mind that 18 g=18 millilitres of H2O contains approx. Avogadros number of

molecules of water (plus minerals , etc...) and that is about 6.024 x 10^23 molecules of

H2O. According to the work of Dr. K. Gubbins at Cornell, the quantum wave function of 100

molecules of water can not be calculated on a supercomputer because it is too combinatorially

explosive. Likewise, an accurate calculation on a quantum computer would take an infinite

amount of time, as water moves in time, just like smoke in air. In fact , no accurate calculation

of turbulence exists compared to a kayakers mind going down whitewater rapids at the

Olympics. Smoke in air is just not repeatable from second to second or millisecond to

millisecond for that matter. Likewise, minerals and water structure beyond about 23 molecules

of water cannot reasonably be expected to be simulated or predicted with any real to life

accuracy. Then there is the contemplation of a lake or a river beyond 18 ml of water, and the

contemplation of the whole water cycle, weather, the oceans. Averages into the future can be

estimated along with confidence bounds, and these are acceptable for

planning, however, actual knowledge of all the trillions and trillions of molecules and their

whereabouts from millisecond to millisecond are not predictable. A case in point is flight

MH370 from Malaysia to God doesn't know where!!!! if you get my drift. This is my disclaimer

for these results. They are averages of what is most likely, but a living ocean and atmosphere

with orgone energy throws enough uncertainty into the results that we may never be sure ahead

of time. We need to make plans however, and it is wise to take precautions and take the side of

caution. I personally am convinced that these results are genuine and we should heed them. But

in a complex world with many demands on us like the conflict in Ukraine, Iran, N.

Korea,Afghanistan,Pakistan and India,China and the rest of the world, Israel and

Palestine, Mexico and US , Energy needs and Oil and Gas or Nuclear (Thorium), and the fact

it takes 20 years to get permissions and plan and build a new nuclear reactor.... we may not have

enough time to save the oceans. Like James Lovelock said, we might , in order to prevent from

getting too depressed over the issue, just enjoy living our little personal lives ; 1 out of 7 billion

can't hope to really change it all in time and few would believe him or her anyway because they

don't have the background education to understand or the connections necessary, or they might

lose too much money in the process. So C'est la vie. Life goes on one way or the

other. Besides, the whole thing may be a secret illusion concocted by aliens, the Elites or

both to suck Orgone out of all of us and all of Earth. I wouldn't put it past them. I don't know

anyone who has actually taken CO2 measurements of the atmosphere, I've never talked with

such a person. I've heard they are using laser spectroscopy to make the measurements at Mauna

Kea in Hawaii (the astronomical observatory there) and many other places at NASA, military

bases and civilian universities. But I've never seen a TV show about it or heard their tones or

found out how it works in detail. It is possible that you can make CO2 measurements with

barium hydroxide solution in water in a lab at a school, but it is not very accurate and it is

laborious. I know how to do it, and have mentioned the technique in my blog earlier. But i

know of no one or no school willing to let their kids do it, or kids willing to do it. The whole

thing is based in fear and doomsday messages. I guess we just have to choose to live in spite of

the insecurity and realize that it all might be just a bad dream. Babies are still born, and they

still drink their mothers milk and they dream, feel secure usually, and grow up and find their way

in life one way or the other. The Gig is up. They still kill rats at the hospital in the name of good

 science. Listen to the music. They either sink or swim. I think we should choose to swim

regardless and play some beautiful music along the way. The markets are still all stealing and so

are the political parties. Politics is often a blood sport. Its not necessary for that to be so with

better education and information and connections with good folk. With no reward in sight or

sound or sex or any of the senses for that matter for my work on the environment in terms of

acclamation or much recognition, it just doesn't make sense to continue it much more. Life is

meant to be enjoyed in the presence of good company, and the public news channels are too full

of destructive energy and not enough of the orgone to make it pleasant. Check out The Indian

Ocean with Simon Reeves..... he ends up in Australia. Pretty good fun.

SpaceshipEarth could last another 5 billion years (the expected life of our Sun before it goes Red

Giant), if we looked after it properly, NASAs message about leaving and going to another

planet and giving up on Earth which they have actively been doing since the 1960s seems

altogether doomed aswell unless aliens actually are here and can help. I'm sure some are

ok, while others are creating mischief or worse. On that note, the book 'Science ,Skeptics and

UFOs' written by an retired accredited scientist who has journal papers and patents to his name

who comes from farming stock in Mississippi area, whose great grandfather saw UFOs in the

1890s and his grandfather saw them, his father saw them and he saw them about 40 times in his

life. Their womenfolk saw them too. He recounts this personal information in an objective and

scientific fashion as possible and his account seems credible. France and the UK and Germany

have all declassified their Military UFO sighting and contact research. Britain claims there are

aliens (resembling humans very closely) who exist interacting with humans on planet earth right

now.


And now for the main agenda:

pH oscillation will impact diversity and life in the ocean perhaps catastrophically unless

intervention occurs

Fish,crustaceans, corals and marine mammals like cetaceans and all marine animal and plant life

may be at risk due to the pH drop that will most likely occur between 2022 and 2024 , first the

pH will rise by .5 to 8.9 approximately in 2018 then it will drop to 8.4 the following year then to

7.9 and contine dropping to a value just above 7.8 by 2069. So the magnesium carbonate buffer

will break in the ocean around 490 ppm within a period of 2 years, and the calcium carbonate

buffer will break in the ocean around 878 ppm within a period of 10 years starting around 2054.

The calculations take into account the SWS scale of pH which includes an analysis at depth and

CO2(2-),HCO2(-) and H2CO2 concentrations and their solubility products as well as phosphates,

bromium,boron,chlorine, sodium, Magnesium Carbonate (magnesite)buffer and Calcium

carbonate(both aragonite and calcite) buffer and Sulphur dioxide (sulphuric acid) and all other

relavant chemical species that exist in the ocean in abundance that are significant (about 98% of

the variation is accounted for statistically). An average Temperature change profile with depth is

used but temperature changes year over year are ingnored in this time period due to the great

heat capacity of water, but temperatures are rising causing a die off of phytoplankton in the

ocean

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/07/phytoplankton-panic/ [nofollow]...

. A .1 degree change in the entire ocean is equivalent to a nuclear bomb going off in terms of

raw heat energy. So we ignore the temperature changes as they are mostly negligible on average

for the entire ocean. This might be a mistake, a future analysis to take this into account is

planned. But i wanted, in the interests of time and security and safety to get the broad outlines of

the chemistry calculated to release the results.

I used the formulas developed by Brookhaven National Labs at the Carbon Dioxide Information

Analysis Centre on the SWS scale for pH and total alkalinity developed by scientists Ernie Lewis

and Doug Wallace,

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/oceans/co2rprt.html [nofollow]

and diffusion equations at depth solving for the equilibrium concentration at the surface first.

I used all the formulas in the book CO2 in seawater;Equilibrium, kinetics and isotopes by Zeebe

and Wolf-Gladrow

http://store.elsevier.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780444509468&pagename=search [nofollow]

I recommend reading the IPCC reports even though their summary only focusses on

aragonite, and has better regional data and profiles than i could muster.

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-4-2.html [nofollow]

They did not contain enough detail for me to be sure they were reporting the situation accurately

or repeatably (they were missing a lot of the story in their public reports and were appealing to

their own authority for validity rather than allowing independent verification), which is

unscientific. They never admit their ignorance or doubt on any topic. For instance, nobody

knows for sure how much aragonite is accessible for buffering from the ocean bottom(floor)

across the entire ocean. Estimates have been made by drilling core samples at many

locations, and statistical sampling techniques have been used to estimate the total, but nobody

knows for sure (they can be pretty certain, but they never even discuss this point). There may be

vast deposits of fossil aragonite on the ocean floor that they have missed, or there may be

none. My bet is that there are some, given the vastness of the ocean floor, and the fact that they

have only just discovered a massive fossil reserve on land near the Burgess shale in the Rockies.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/technology/vast-fossil-bed-found-in-rocki [nofollow]...

Also , until the advent of modern sonar techniques (only now in 2014 coming to the mainstream

science community) to measure salinity, pH,temperature and velocity profiles, only just now are

we getting valid data about the ocean as a whole from these techniques, and there are some

errors in measurment that creep in especially if instruments aren't calibrated properly and kept

maintained;and their is massive variability in the data, both is space and time. this information

has not yet been assimilated by the IPCC team, or at least they have not made this assimilation

public, or the data public.

I have computed the density and pressure of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere up to 44 km

high (beyond this they are inclculable mostly as they are too small to have an impact). the total

is integrated numerically and the results are tabulated in the previous post.

I have solved the diffusion equilibrium equations at the surface and at depth to calculate CO2

concentrations at depth for the first 1000 feet of the ocean (333.3 metres), calculated at every .1

metre.

The pH values indicate that beginning around 2017 to be conservative and continuing to 2020

the ocean will exhibit some wild pH fluctuations in the first 1000 feet, and probably beyond at

 greater depth as well. This relatively enormous fluctuation from 8.4 baseline up to 8.9 (a

difference of .5 pH) and then a dive back down to 7.9 will have a major impact on life in the

oceans. fish will feel it as will all marine life. There may be a mass die off, and some

evolution. The base of the food chain has already been impacted since 1950, seeing a drop of

40% over this time period.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/phytoplankton-oceans-food-web.htm [nofollow]

The loss of phytoplankton is little understood, but probably related to temperature and pollution

and pH changes in the ocean. The loss is probably more attributable historically since 1950 due

to temperature and pollution changes in the ocean, as during this time up until the present, pH

has stayed relatively stable. We desperately need to find subsets of the marine life and especially

krill, zooplankton and phytoplankton that can survive at pH 7.9 (and if they can photosynthesize

that would be a bonus) and that are resitant to temperature changes especially. Experiments in

the lab at pH 7.9 and increased temperatures with populations of krill and plankton subspecies is

necessary to create a population that can survive and thrive under these conditions, and then

seed the oceans with this subset at around the right time period. Timing is

everything. Measurements of ocean pH and temperature need to be made periodically as they

are. Temperature, salinity and velocity profile can be measured in the ocean with new sonar

techniques.

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/environment/new-sonar-technology-reveals [nofollow]...

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/xpl/login.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6404791&url=http%3 [nofollow]...

There are groups of three unmanned drones surveying the ocean as we speak(2014) gathering

sonar data, so that triangulation can be done and the equations can be solved for the

unknowns....

If the ocean can be seeded at the right time, the base of the food chain will survive, giving

optimal chances for survival of aquatic life in general. We need to seed also at a pH of 8.9 and

up to this value, and keep seeding on the precipitous dive afterwards. It could be a catastrophic

event resulting in the death of the oceans if we don't carefully examine the cause and the and

take preventative and interventionist measures to ensure the survival of aquatic species.

It appears the mechanism is that there is a lot less magnesium in the ocean than calcium, and

around 2018 the magnesiumk buffer breaks between 490 to 500 ppm in the atmosphere. The

calcium carbonate buffer does not break just yet (thank goodness,, and we have some time left to

solve the CO2 emission problem after this point due to the ongoing activity of the calcium

carbonate buffer).

We shouldn't rule out the use of genetic engineering to save the food chain in the oceans, but

preferably we should avoid it as it could lead to unintended consequences as natural species have

the diversity in their DNA of a long history of environmental changes and the rapid cycling of

generations due to pH changes could result in the expression of survival DNA.

But there is still a puzzle as to why the zooplankton have not thrived as much or adapted since

1950, perhaps due to pollution in general. Perhaps their DNA has never seen such a pH range

and they may be too finely tuned to historic levels prior to the industrial revolution.

When the pH reaches 8.9 (which is more basic/alkaline) there will be less CO2 in the ocean, ie.

the ocean suck gas CO2 from the atmosphere, increasing pressure and concentration at the

depth, causing more CO2 at depth, causing the pH to drop again and become more acidic in a

feedback loop. So the rise and fall in pH will oscillate in actual fact and the ppm of the

atmosphere will oscillate over relatively short time scales (days and weeks), thus establishing a

break in the magnesite buffer. Similarly when the pH is 7.9, there would be more carbonic acid

in the ocean, sucking CO2 out of the atmosphere. Once the magnesite buffer is broken, the

ppm in the atmosphere directly above and locally will decrease, causing a change in the

equilibrium, and the ocean will off gas, increasing the ppm of the atmosphere, and decreasing the

CO2 concentration in the ocean, increasing alkalinity and pH in a feedback loop. The ppm and

pH will oscillate back and forth in different regions once the feeback loop has started operating

and equilibrium would be broken, confirming the break in the magnesite buffer. Unstable ppm

and pH levels are dangerous for aquatic species of plants and animals, and the rapid cycling

would weather them and perhaps cause an inability to adapt over those time scales

involved, resulting in a die off of marine life. The pH could vary by as much as 1 pH over the

SWS scale over relatively short times like a week or a few days. The feedback loop is

practically continuous in time and space.

The living ocean is a concept that should not be underestimated.

« Last Edit: 26/05/2016 12:02:24 by Chondrally »


 

Offline Chondrally

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There are two possibilities that can happen when the magnesium carbonate buffer breaks:
1) Deep ocean CO2 wells up from below and the ocean off gases.
2) The pH decreases and the acidity increases,  drawing CO2 from the atmosphere.

The 2nd isn't as likely as the first because it would take a kind of pump to forcibly remove CO2 from the atmosphere and increase the concentration in the ocean increasing acidity within a two year period by 1 pH level.  The equilibrium is the only pump there is and when the buffer breaks,  the pump breaks down.

The 1st is more likely, because when the buffer breaks a kind of friction is removed from the depth profile,  allowing CO2 from the depths to rush to the surface, overshooting it.  The potential is there in the pH of the ocean and as depth increases the CO2 increases , the acidity increases with depth normally.  When the buffer breaks it causes a chain reaction that removes the barriers to upward flow of the dissolved CO2 and the ocean off gases CO2.
 

Offline Chondrally

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The living ocean is a concept that should not be underestimated. There are waves, pressure and

temperature differences, micro-climate hot and cold spots, pH fluctuations and currents and

teeming with life (though fish have been disappearing due to the base of the food chain being

eroded and overfishing and deep sea trawling). There have been pH values recorded by Al

Gore's team of 7.5 in acid spots in the pacific. Perhaps fish feel that and avoid them when they

occur due to natural fluctuations. The ocean off gases CO2 from deep ocean currents when they

rise to the surface, and highly dense CO2 concentrations exist deep in the ocean in cold

waters. Perhaps fish and krill and phytoplankton and zooplankton can already survive at pH 7.9

on average. The averages are still important for the food chain mortality statistics. Research

still has to be done to make sure the food chain does not suffer an irreversible collapse if the

magnesium buffer breaks due to high CO2 concentrations in the top 1000 feet of the

ocean. Preventative and Survival measures and intervention might need to be taken to ensure

biosphere survival. It is impossible to predict ecosystems and micro-climate accurately or as to

timing. The ocean is so variable due to local fluctuations of sunlight, weather and wind and rain

and local CO2 concentrations in the ocean and atmosphere, googleplex atoms and molecules

dancing about and interacting, chaos and fluctuations and nonlinear dynamical systems theory

occurring all the time. But the static theory averages predict that around 490 to 500 ppm of CO2

in the atmosphere, the magnesium carbonate buffer could break for the entire ocean within a 2

year window. If this happens, the consequences could be drastic. No one can say for sure what

will happen. But we should definately be worried and be prepared to take some kind of action

geoengineering wise to ensure the continued survival of the living ocean.

Lets hope that whatever force it takes to save the oceans happens within three to seven years in

preparation for the event.
 

Offline Chondrally

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Empirical test of pH decrease, ocean acidification is very simple if you have a chemistry lab near the coast.



Collect 1 litre of seawater from the atlantic, pacific , arctic, antartic or indian ocean in a beaker and seal it and take it to your nearest university chemistry lab.

At the university conduct a controlled experiment with a pH monitor instrument dipped into the beaker and thermometer and pressure measuring instrument(air-barometer) and seal the beaker from the atmosphere except for a CO2 hose going inside the beaker to the air above the seawater.

Slowly increase the concentration and pressure of CO2 above the water and record temperature, pressure in a closed volume along with the time... this process should allow for diffusion of the CO2 into the seawater.  Record the changing pH and The CO2 concentration and pressure as the CO2 is slowly over hours increased to 550 ppm at 101.3 kPa equivalent.  Using PV=NRT or better yet, van der Walls equations for CO2.

Record the pH drop when it occurs and report the experiment and apparatus online or in a journal. Repeat the experiment 32 times to reduce statistical error to hone the estimate of the crtical empirical concentration of CO2 that causes the breakdown in the magnesium carbonate buffer. Confirm that it is the magnesium carbonate buffer that has broken.

 

Good Luck!
 

Online yor_on

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You should try to rewrite it into something more easily readable, with source links. Also present the calculations made, and why/how you expect them correct. Lastly you should place it all into TNS 'New Theories', not here, That is, unless you have had your hypothesis peer reviewed by climate scientists and other interested. Try www.realclimate.org for a better response to your hypothesis.
 

Offline Chondrally

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Its an advanced calculation of the diffusion equations including gravity, temperature and pressure,  after an analysis of the atmosphere to find the ppm at sea level... and assuming equilibrium at the air/sea interface.  It is not new physics or chemistry.  It uses the ksp solubility product constant equations, derived by scientific experiment, and elucidated in the book 'CO2 in seawater; Equilibria, kinetics, isotopes' by Wolf and Gladrow available from Elsevier press.  It is definitely not a 'NEW THEORY'. Its a NEW Interpretation of facts and existing theories.
To see the spreadsheet and simulation and Visual BASIC program with all the equations for review, contact richardj.belshaw at gmail.com and I will forward you a copy!
« Last Edit: 05/12/2015 09:21:40 by Chondrally »
 

Offline Colin2B

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Yor_on is right. Although based on existing science any new analysis or interpretation is a new theory until peer reviewed and accepted.
Your presentation should be a clearer summary of key findings with links to the detail and maths.

There is a lot in your post that is irrelevant to the topic and detracts from your argument eg I live in Britain and we don't claim aliens are walking around disguised as humans. You may think we are odd, but we are not that odd!
 

Offline Pecos_Bill

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Here is a thought experiment that answers this...

The blood of all mammals is buffered by carbonate molecules. It makes no difference that it is Na bicrb in humans or Mg carbonate in the ocean.

When the body retains too much Co2 for the buffer to handle, the body goes into respiratory acidosis ( aka sicky-poo). E.g. when a patient's Co2 gets to about 50, he becomes what ICU folks call "A bad day at black rock" and they contact the next of kin.

Therefore there is some concentration of co2 for the earth's oceans which also constitutes a global "Bad day at black rock". The world's oceans are now at the stage of "sick-poo" and politicians - like a lunger who won't quit smoking - are refusing to look down that long, lonesome road.
 

Offline Chondrally

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Another interesting phenomenon aside from concentration of ions and gravity is the Coriolis force itself,  the force on the oceans molecule that changes with altitude that causes currents to flow along with gravity.  Why water in the sink turns one way in the northern hemisphere and another in the southern hemisphere (clockwise in North, anit-Clockwise in the South).  If the CO2  or carbonate molecules are heavier than water,  both gravity and the coriolis effect would help them to sink to depth faster than water would mix.  It would cause some water mixing due to friction of molecules. but it also explains the propensity of sea snow to form and fall and redissolve at depth.
Modeling this is difficult for the whole ocean as large currents form and some places huge upward currents carrying very dense CO2 concentrations occur and at these places off-gasing occurs.
 

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