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Author Topic: Should government start a genocide program?  (Read 7102 times)

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #25 on: 05/05/2015 08:39:18 »
Germany has a population of  81 million, life expectancy of 78 years for men,  83 years for women, population growth rate: -0.18% birth rate: 8.42 / 1,000 and a death rate: 11.2 / 1,000 (2014 estimate).On current projections, Germany's population will drop to 69 million people by 2050 and 43 million by 2100.

That may not be 7.5 million, but it still seems like a fairly steep drop. How fast can you drop the population of country, and increase the numbers of old people with out causing havoc? Old people may have pensions and investments, but that money isn't just sitting in a box under their bed. Its the money produced from some other on going economic activity.
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #26 on: 05/05/2015 08:41:14 »
Probably, but unsustainable population growth is already affecting the UK, where education and contraception are apparently available to anyone who wants either, but the rate of teenage pregnancy is a serious concern to governments and do-gooders. 

The trick is to abolish all child benefits and to pay women a comparable sum if they are not pregnant. Say 500 every 6 months from the age of 10 to 60. You get one "bye" after which you lose the benefit permanently if you are pregnant, though it is restored if your child dies before the age of 16. There is a net saving to the exchequer, plus additional tax income from working women not taking maternity leave.

So after losing the benefit, what's the incentive not to have 3?
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #27 on: 05/05/2015 08:53:42 »
...And that's the reason I suggested genocide. Even if you somehow implement 1 child policy, It will take UK at least 120 years to cut down to 7.5 million population. I don't really think we have enough resources to last for 120 years.

Why shouldn't everyone drink the Kool aid then? For the good of the planet. It would be fair, after all.

I can't take your position seriously because it's contradictory. To claim that we have to decrease the population so that the species can survive is itself a moral value - it implies that humans have some kind of value. How do you derive any value from them collectively as a species, if individual humans are valueless? Why should you care if the species continues at all?  If you were truly amoral, it shouldn't matter one way or the other.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #28 on: 05/05/2015 17:01:20 »
So after losing the benefit, what's the incentive not to have 3?

If you can afford to feed, clothe and educate them, why not? But the state won't, and it would be a crime (it already is) to allow them to starve, so you will go to prison. On the other hand if you stop at 0 or 1 you will still receive 1000 per year, which is a fair incentive to do nothing.

I'll make an exception for naturally-conceived multiple births: twins and more add fun to everyone's life.
« Last Edit: 05/05/2015 17:08:53 by alancalverd »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #29 on: 05/05/2015 17:06:18 »
Old people may have pensions and investments, but that money isn't just sitting in a box under their bed. Its the money produced from some other on going economic activity.

True, but that ongoing economic activity is being carried out by the "working fraction", i.e. those between 20 and 60 years old, which increases if the birth rate is below replacement level because the nonworking fraction under 20 is decreasing. 

It's quite easy to model with a spreadsheet but I haven't yet derived a simple analytic expression, for which I apologise.
 

Offline David Cooper

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #30 on: 05/05/2015 17:51:54 »
If a huge cull is ever required, one simple way to select people for it is to ask them if they believe in royalty. If they think it's a good thing that the birth of a new "royal" should chuck more important stories out of news broadcasts for days, they should not be inflicting their genes on future generations.
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #31 on: 05/05/2015 18:34:31 »
So after losing the benefit, what's the incentive not to have 3?

If you can afford to feed, clothe and educate them, why not? But the state won't, and it would be a crime (it already is) to allow them to starve, so you will go to prison. On the other hand if you stop at 0 or 1 you will still receive 1000 per year, which is a fair incentive to do nothing.

I'll make an exception for naturally-conceived multiple births: twins and more add fun to everyone's life.
That's an entirely different argument. Whether you can "afford" to feed and clothe and drive them to practice in your suv is irrelevant if the discussion is about depleting resources. In fact affluent people probably consume more.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #32 on: 05/05/2015 23:53:32 »
And there will be more for everyone to consume, where there are fewer people. The objective is to get to the point where consumption can equal production for ever, and in the case of the UK that requires a population of not more than 10 million and preferably around 5 million. I have no doubt that there will be inequalities of distribution, ability, opportunity, and a thousand other things that may or may not be seen as problems, but where there is a finite limit on per capita resources, you are more likely to get an equitable distribution by reducing the number of capitas so that nobody needs to starve or freeze. You can't redistribute resources equitably if there isn't enough to go round in the first place. 
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #33 on: 06/05/2015 05:24:11 »
Until that magic number is reached, though, the plan would appear to be that poorer people need to make all the sacrifices so that a select portion of the population can carry on as usual. Don't reproduce, pay a huge portion of your income on energy taxes, and if it's not too much trouble, please kill yourself once you are too old to be exploited in your menial low wage job.
« Last Edit: 06/05/2015 06:49:11 by cheryl j »
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #34 on: 06/05/2015 07:07:21 »
Old people may have pensions and investments, but that money isn't just sitting in a box under their bed. Its the money produced from some other on going economic activity.

True, but that ongoing economic activity is being carried out by the "working fraction", i.e. those between 20 and 60 years old, which increases if the birth rate is below replacement level because the nonworking fraction under 20 is decreasing. 



Well, okay, but then those absent under-20s are eventually absent 40 year olds. I'm not arguing against decreasing the population - not at all - but you have to get over that crest gently, where you will have a large number of elderly people dependent on others. Japan seems to be hitting that already. If that bump is too big, you end up with people clamoring for mothers to have more babies, and you are back to square one.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joelkotkin/2014/12/15/can-abe-tackle-the-real-reason-for-japans-decline/
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #35 on: 06/05/2015 11:51:24 »
Until that magic number is reached, though, the plan would appear to be that poorer people need to make all the sacrifices so that a select portion of the population can carry on as usual. Don't reproduce, pay a huge portion of your income on energy taxes, and if it's not too much trouble, please kill yourself once you are too old to be exploited in your menial low wage job.

Non sequitur to my argument. All I am suggesting is that (a) every woman can get 1000 per year for doing nothing and (b) your children are not my responsibility. In return for doing nothing, everyone gets cheaper housing, renewable energy, increasingly sustainable and politically stable food, and a bigger pension.

I haven't advocated suicide (though I do intend to take my own life) or told anyone what job they can have or what their wages will be. I am sure there will be corrupt bankers, politicians with their snouts in the trough, and all the rest, but with fewer people there will be less scope for unemployment and if anything wages will increase.

Quote
Well, okay, but then those absent under-20s are eventually absent 40 year olds.

but they are supporting fewer under-20's. The common error is to forget that, in a western society, the 0 - 20 cohort contribute nothing and probably consume more than the 60 - 100 group.

Quote
but you have to get over that crest gently, where you will have a large number of elderly people dependent on others. Japan seems to be hitting that already. If that bump is too big, you end up with people clamoring for mothers to have more babies, and you are back to square one.
The bump is illusory. I've plotted the age distribution and "working fraction" for the next 100 years on the assumptions only that everyone lives to the age of 60 and nobody lives to be more than 100 years old - a reasonable approximation, I think - and every woman has one child. If you look at the attached charts you can see that the "working fraction" of the population actually increases (the ripples are due to discretisation errors in the spreadheet I used to create them) if we decrease birthrate without significantly inceasing life expectancy.

The political problem is that all modern politics and economics is about growth, expansion, and an increasing pool of consumers. The economics of stasis is uninteresting and politically unsaleable, but the economics of an intentionally shrinking population hasn't really been promulgated - yet.   
« Last Edit: 06/05/2015 12:57:37 by alancalverd »
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #36 on: 08/05/2015 04:38:37 »
So then what is Japan freaking out about?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30653825
 

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #37 on: 08/05/2015 04:57:40 »
Quote from: BBC
That in turn is expected to harm the pension system and other elements of social welfare. The impact in rural areas is predicted to be especially damaging, putting the very existence of some communities in danger.
...This and
just make fewer babies. The downside is that conventional economic indicators such as Gross National Product or average house prices, would fall. So the question is whether you want your children to inherit a better world, or better statistics.
...That's all Japan's concerned about.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #38 on: 08/05/2015 12:17:13 »
The "existence of communities" is of interest only to historians and others who were never part of that community. Many years ago I helped build a road in the hope that it would encourage tourists to visit an isolated and rather beautiful village in the Austrian Tyrol. As soon as the road opened, the village youngsters rented a truck and moved out, lock, stock and barrel. It is immoral to value an abstract notion like community or culture above the happiness of the people who live in it. 

When you say "Japan" I presume you mean "Japanese politicians, economists and business owners", not the emancipated women who have decided to live their own lives rather than raise children to make statistics for other people.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #39 on: 08/05/2015 12:21:34 »
So then what is Japan freaking out about?
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30653825


Quote
Experts warn the impact of the decline will harm Japan in various ways.

A lowering of the number of people aged between 15 to 64 is predicted to lower potential growth and shrink Japan's GDP.
A decline in the population is said by experts to have damaging consequences for Japan

Japanese "experts" thought it would be a good idea to sink the US Fleet at Pearl Harbor. Beware of anonymous consensus without experimental proof or calculation.


 

Offline Thebox

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #40 on: 08/05/2015 14:15:14 »
What the Uk need to do is simple, start an agricultural revolution inland Britain to ensure a food supply for the future.  We then gather all the worthless gold and gems and money of the UK, we then can swap this worthless piles of junk for a load of resources from the unsuspecting marks from abroad.
Then while the marks are eating paper and chewing on stones, our economy will be flourishing with grazing cattle and growing food that is protected from high tides and floods.
Turn the entire of the Midlands into an agricultural area that feeds the entire UK.


« Last Edit: 08/05/2015 14:22:40 by Thebox »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #41 on: 08/05/2015 23:58:00 »

Turn the entire of the Midlands into an agricultural area that feeds the entire UK.


90% of the UK is already agricultural (including hill grazing, forestry and marshland) and the 10% classed as "urban" is actually about 5% concrete and 5% parks and gardens. But it isn't enough to feed 65,000,000 people sustainably. We currently produce less than 60% of the food we eat, and that involves a substantial input of artificial fertilisers, all derived from fossil fuels.

With a population of 5 - 10 million we could devote enough land to energy production to maintain our current standard of living with renewables, and still have enough area to grow all the food we need.
 

Offline RD

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #42 on: 09/05/2015 02:00:24 »
... With a population of 5 - 10 million we could devote enough land to energy production to maintain our current standard of living with renewables, and still have enough area to grow all the food we need.

At that point Britain becomes an allotment for an overpopulated neighbouring country with a bigger armed forces.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2015 02:02:00 by RD »
 

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #43 on: 09/05/2015 05:38:09 »
At that point Britain becomes an allotment for an overpopulated neighbouring country with a bigger armed forces.

RD... Alan, isn't talking about turning only England into a less populated country. But, he, in his early posts, talked about turning the world into a less populated whole.
...After that he just assumed that the reader would know what he is talking about;
He just used U.K to explain, in more details about what could be done, etc.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2015 05:44:33 by Jasper Hayden »
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #44 on: 09/05/2015 08:57:02 »
... With a population of 5 - 10 million we could devote enough land to energy production to maintain our current standard of living with renewables, and still have enough area to grow all the food we need.

At that point Britain becomes an allotment for an overpopulated neighbouring country with a bigger armed forces.

Like, say, Canada, Australia, Kenya, New Zealand, Italy, or any other food-exporting country.

Did I suggest reducing the size of the military? I think not. Right now, we have the smallest proportion of the population under arms for over a century, and if 150,000 personnel are sufficient to defend the borders whilst rearranging the rubble in Iaq and Afghanistan, I se no reason to reduce the number.

And remember that there won't necessarily be any surplus to export. I'm looking for complete, sustainable selfsufficiency, unlike the present where the entire country is hostage to Saudi Arabia and Russia and the price of food is determined by the least efficient farmer in France. 
 

Offline Thebox

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #45 on: 09/05/2015 09:43:05 »
... With a population of 5 - 10 million we could devote enough land to energy production to maintain our current standard of living with renewables, and still have enough area to grow all the food we need.

At that point Britain becomes an allotment for an overpopulated neighbouring country with a bigger armed forces.

Like, say, Canada, Australia, Kenya, New Zealand, Italy, or any other food-exporting country.

Did I suggest reducing the size of the military? I think not. Right now, we have the smallest proportion of the population under arms for over a century, and if 150,000 personnel are sufficient to defend the borders whilst rearranging the rubble in Iaq and Afghanistan, I se no reason to reduce the number.

And remember that there won't necessarily be any surplus to export. I'm looking for complete, sustainable selfsufficiency, unlike the present where the entire country is hostage to Saudi Arabia and Russia and the price of food is determined by the least efficient farmer in France.


self efficiency is what I was aiming at with my post, although you explained a lot of Britain is agriculture sufficient I personally do not observe this.  I have many open areas of country side around where I live, these fields are empty of food and cattle where this land should be flourishing.   It is interesting that armed forces were mentioned, that is why I suggested the Midlands, an inland place we could surround with our forces to make a stronghold of resources.
All coastal towns would be for leisure, between those towns and the Midlands would be army bases.
Inland protects from the sea, strategy important for our future in my opinion. Our country is big enough to sustain us all if the agriculture revolution was to take effect, and all baron land was revamped for prosperity of crops and cattle.
We do not need televisions or the likes of industry, this is just playing on our boredom, we need to grow more food and use more land, produce more cattle and wheat etc, a country wide revolution would enable this to happen.
Why do we have to follow the rest of the world?
Keeping up with the jones's is self righteous greed, a ten year plan and we could really do this, we do not need money or gold it has no value in reality.  The UK should be the first to scrap money. It  really is useless if you can not eat it, the best thing for money is to burn it to keep warm in winter.
We live for the now and not for the future, we are all selfish to our future including all government in charge.


 


 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #46 on: 09/05/2015 11:54:10 »


self efficiency is what I was aiming at with my post, although you explained a lot of Britain is agriculture sufficient I personally do not observe this.
No I didn't. We cannot grow enough food to feed the present population, and you would need to convert about half the cultivable land to fuel production in order to maintain an acceptable standard of living for the population that could be fed on the remainder. This puts the upper limit of sustainable population at not more than 10,000,000, or about half that if you want to eat farmed animal meat.

Quote
I have many open areas of country side around where I live, these fields are empty of food and cattle where this land should be flourishing.

Blame the European Union for paying farmers to grow nothing (remember its objective is to sustain market prices and business statistics, not people) . Or consider whether the land is zoned for building, intentionally fallow as part of a crop rotation, subject to purchase negotitations, too prone to flooding, set aside as a nature reserve or parkland, or polluted. Pretty much every bit of the UK that can be farmed for  profit, is. 
 

Offline cheryl j

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #47 on: 09/05/2015 16:02:38 »


When you say "Japan" I presume you mean "Japanese politicians, economists and business owners", not the emancipated women who have decided to live their own lives rather than raise children to make statistics for other people.
No, I completely agree with that, hence my previous posts about civil liberties for women world wide, which I think have had a major effect on fertility, and would continue to, despite very different past cultural practices.  The only thing I question is that "bump" as birthrate reverses, and the best rate of decline to mitigate it, but still meet sustainable population goals on time.  And also, whether economic pressure on the people with the lowest income is the only strategy in forcing people to conserve in the mean time, while allowing others to waste or consume as much as they like if they can "afford to." But maybe there is no other effective strategy.
 

Offline alancalverd

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #48 on: 10/05/2015 00:07:46 »
I don't see how giving money to all women for doing nothing counts as economic pressure on the poor, and I don't intend to force anyone to conserve anything.

Eventually, fossil fuel will run out, so conservation merely delays the inevitable and makes life miserable in the meantime. My strategy is to get to the point where we don't need it, before we don't have it. The only way to do that without reducing per capita consumption (which is what makes us happy) is to reduce the number of capitae, and Mother Nature does that for us by preferentially killing the oldest.

Did you have a look at the graphs I linked to ("popchart", reply #35 above)? You can see that, even on a crudely sampled model, there is no "bump" but a steadily increasing working fraction and per capita availability of resources. 
« Last Edit: 10/05/2015 00:11:03 by alancalverd »
 

Offline Thebox

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
« Reply #49 on: 10/05/2015 11:40:40 »


self efficiency is what I was aiming at with my post, although you explained a lot of Britain is agriculture sufficient I personally do not observe this.
No I didn't. We cannot grow enough food to feed the present population, and you would need to convert about half the cultivable land to fuel production in order to maintain an acceptable standard of living for the population that could be fed on the remainder. This puts the upper limit of sustainable population at not more than 10,000,000, or about half that if you want to eat farmed animal meat.

Quote
I have many open areas of country side around where I live, these fields are empty of food and cattle where this land should be flourishing.

Blame the European Union for paying farmers to grow nothing (remember its objective is to sustain market prices and business statistics, not people) . Or consider whether the land is zoned for building, intentionally fallow as part of a crop rotation, subject to purchase negotitations, too prone to flooding, set aside as a nature reserve or parkland, or polluted. Pretty much every bit of the UK that can be farmed for  profit, is.

I think we may be getting our wires crossed.   In my opinion there is fields everywhere around the UK with soil that things can grow from, every single one of these fields should have food growing in them. Most of them have nothing and sit there doing nothing, I am certain we could breed cattle on this land, or grow apple tress and potatoes, I understand that the corporations own all the food and we are simply worker ants, we are in effect all slaves and owned by the corporations, including all of you government types of officials, you also are charged for food which is not even theres by earthly natural right that we are all equal and the land is anybodies and nobodies.

You own all the food and water you own the earth.
« Last Edit: 10/05/2015 11:43:26 by Thebox »
 

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Re: Should government start a genocide program?
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