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How serious is climate change?  Assume a 3 generation time frame.

Billions will die!!!
0 (0%)
Big trouble is unavoidable.
0 (0%)
Serious, but we can adapt..
4 (80%)
Overblown by the media.
1 (20%)
As silly as Y2K
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 4

Voting closed: 25/02/2007 01:13:16

Author Topic: climate change  (Read 5236 times)

Offline BillJx

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« on: 15/02/2007 01:13:16 »
I'd also like to known your profession and/or related education.  Just to see whether there is a correlation between people's presumed ability to judge the issue, and the conclusions they come to.


 

Offline daveshorts

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« Reply #1 on: 15/02/2007 09:52:51 »
I would have said that definitely the developed countries have the technology to adapt, as long as we don't collapse politically or get drawn into unpleasent wars. It could get very nasty in the third world though, and many will probably die of famine. I have a couple of degrees if that is useful
 

another_someone

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« Reply #2 on: 15/02/2007 13:15:41 »
I would have said that definitely the developed countries have the technology to adapt, as long as we don't collapse politically or get drawn into unpleasent wars. It could get very nasty in the third world though, and many will probably die of famine. I have a couple of degrees if that is useful

Famines, as I understand it, are more likely in cold dry climates than in hot wet climates.

Floods and storms are another matter.

More worrying for famine is general overexploitation, to the point of exhaustion, of land; which has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change.
 

Offline daveshorts

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« Reply #3 on: 15/02/2007 17:01:49 »
Quote
Famines, as I understand it, are more likely in cold dry climates than in hot wet climates.

This is true at the moment, mostly due to the fact that the northern countries are affluent and stable enough to be able to over produce food most of the time and buy in food if the harvest fails, however millions of people died 3-400 years ago in european famines when you got a particularly wet summer so nothing ripened.

 It has been  suggested that the black death was related to damp summers, allowing the fungus ergot to grow on rye harvests. The Ergot depresses your immune system (along with various psycological effects) and will let the bacteria get hold and kill you.

I agree that climate change won't necessarily be bad for the global production of food in the long run, as some areas will probbaly become more, and others less productive. However the moving of the productive areas, will mean that there are a lot of subsistance farmers in the wrong part of the world, and the areas which have become more productive, may not be very keen on huge numbers of immigrants...
 

Offline neilep

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« Reply #4 on: 15/02/2007 22:03:15 »
I'd also like to known your profession and/or related education.  Just to see whether there is a correlation between people's presumed ability to judge the issue, and the conclusions they come to.

Well, I chose ' serious but we can adapt'

me helps people design their own wedding and engagement rings..then we make them and sell em..


I think we are looking at a definite rise in temp  from 1-6 deg C by the end of the century.


Though I still keep thinking that we 've just escalated a change that is natural anyway.
 

another_someone

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« Reply #5 on: 15/02/2007 23:13:11 »
Quote
Famines, as I understand it, are more likely in cold dry climates than in hot wet climates.

This is true at the moment, mostly due to the fact that the northern countries are affluent and stable enough to be able to over produce food most of the time and buy in food if the harvest fails, however millions of people died 3-400 years ago in european famines when you got a particularly wet summer so nothing ripened.

This is true always, insofar as we have always been able to adapt to an excess of water (paddy fields, etc.), but a lack of water presents somewhat greater problems.

Quote
It has been  suggested that the black death was related to damp summers, allowing the fungus ergot to grow on rye harvests. The Ergot depresses your immune system (along with various psycological effects) and will let the bacteria get hold and kill you.

I had not heard this before, but what is interesting is that the black death came at a period when global temperatures were on the decline, so one would expect a reduction in rainfall (I had not heard any evidence of there being an increase in rainfall in the 14th century).

Quote
I agree that climate change won't necessarily be bad for the global production of food in the long run, as some areas will probbaly become more, and others less productive. However the moving of the productive areas, will mean that there are a lot of subsistance farmers in the wrong part of the world, and the areas which have become more productive, may not be very keen on huge numbers of immigrants...

While this is true, it is the nature of all industries (and that includes farming) that they go through cycles, both short and long term.

Certainly, there would be serious political obstacles to overcome - but should those political obstacles be the limiting factor in finding a solution?
 

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« Reply #5 on: 15/02/2007 23:13:11 »

 

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