The Naked Scientists

The Naked Scientists Forum

Author Topic: Global Warming Review?  (Read 29571 times)

Offline TheEremite

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
    • My Website
Global Warming Review?
« on: 31/07/2007 20:58:11 »
Hello,

I've been looking around for a good review of the data on global warming. I understand the arguments, I just want to see some of the data, and see for myself how folks have reached their conclusions about human CO2 production causing climate change. I can't find a good review on the topic. There are tons of debate articles, but very few of them get into the data beyond a simple statement of fact about the state of affairs.

Does anybody know of a good read on the topic?

thanks


 

another_someone

  • Guest
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #1 on: 31/07/2007 21:09:19 »
One of the reasons why there is so much debate is the paucity of hard facts (or at least, a paucity of facts that cannot be reinterpreted at least 3 different ways).  It is also the reason why we can justify spending so much research money on the matter - if we knew all the answers, why would we need so much more research to find the answers.

I think one just has to accept that as intelligent as human being like to pretend they are, sometimes one just has to say "I don't know".
« Last Edit: 31/07/2007 21:11:46 by another_someone »
 

Offline TheEremite

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
    • My Website
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #2 on: 31/07/2007 22:03:03 »
So there are no reviews?

That's hard for me to believe.

How do articles like newbielink:http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686 [nonactive] get written - in Science no less - and not cite a review or scientific paper?

There's got to be something out there.
 

another_someone

  • Guest
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #3 on: 31/07/2007 22:15:21 »
You will note one key statement in that article:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686
Quote
The scientific consensus might, of course, be wrong.

and secondly:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686
Quote
Many details about climate interactions are not well understood, and there are ample grounds for continued research to provide a better basis for understanding climate dynamics.

Throughout the report, it talks about consensus, not about unambiguous data.
 

Offline TheEremite

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
    • My Website
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #4 on: 31/07/2007 22:20:07 »
Right, but where does the scientific consensus come from? There's got to be some decent data. These aren't dumb people we're talking about. I understand they can be wrong, but opinions get formed from something.

Where is that something?
 

another_someone

  • Guest
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #5 on: 31/07/2007 22:46:43 »
If you look at the reference section for global warming in Wikipedia, you will find plenty of papers - how you interpret those papers is another matter:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#References
Quote
   1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Summary for Policymakers (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-02-05). Retrieved on 2007-02-02.
   2. ^ Hegerl, Gabriele C.; et al. (2007-05-07). Understanding and Attributing Climate Change (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 690. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-05-20. “Recent estimates (Figure 9.9) indicate a relatively small combined effect of natural forcings on the global mean temperature evolution of the seconds half of the 20th century, with a small net cooling from the combined effects of solar and volcanic forcings”
   3. ^ Ammann, Caspar; et al. (2007-04-06). "Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from ransient simulations with the NCAR Climate Simulation Model". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104 (10): 3713–3718. “However, because of a lack of interactive ozone, the model cannot fully simulate features discussed in (44)." "While the NH temperatures of the high-scaled experiment are often colder than the lower bound from proxy data, the modeled decadal-scale NH surface temperature for the medium-scaled case falls within the uncertainty range of the available temperature reconstructions. The medium-scaled simulation also broadly reproduces the main features seen in the proxy records." "Without anthropogenic forcing, the 20th century warming is small. The simulations with only natural forcing components included yield an early 20th century peak warming of ≈0.2 °C (≈1950 AD), which is reduced to about half by the end of the century because of increased volcanism.”
   4. ^ American Quaternary Association (2006-09-05). "Petroleum Geologists‘ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos 87: 364. “AAPG stands alone among scientific societies in its denial of human-induced effects on global warming.”
   5. ^ Climate Change Policy (cfm). American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Retrieved on 2007-03-30.
   6. ^ American Association of Petroleum Geologists Explore magazine March 2007.
   7. ^ American Quaternary Association (2006-09-05). "Petroleum Geologists‘ Award to Novelist Crichton Is Inappropriate" (PDF). Eos 87: 364. “Few credible scientists now doubt that humans have influenced the documented rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.”
   8. ^ Climate Change: Basic Information. United States Environmental Protection Agency (2006-12-14). Retrieved on 2007-02-09. “In common usage, 'global warming' often refers to the warming that can occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities.”
   9. ^ United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Article I. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-01-15.
  10. ^ Joint science academies' statement: The science of climate change (ASP). Royal Society (2001-05-17). Retrieved on 2007-04-01. “The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the consensus of the international scientific community on climate change science”
  11. ^ Leidig, Michael; Nikkhah, Roya (2004-07-17). The truth about global warming - it's the Sun that's to blame. Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved on 2007-04-29.
  12. ^ Meehl, Gerald A.; et al. (2005-03-18). "How Much More Global Warming and Sea Level Rise". Science 307 (5716): 1769–1772. DOI:10.1126/science.1106663. Retrieved on 2007-02-11.
  13. ^ (December 2002). "Living with Climate Change – An Overview of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Australia. Summary and Outlook" (PDF). Australian Greenhouse Office. Retrieved on 2007-04-18.
  14. ^ Kiehl, J. T.; Kevin E. Trenberth (February 1997). "Earth’s Annual Global Mean Energy Budget" (PDF). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (2): 197-208. Retrieved on 2006-05-01.
  15. ^ Water vapour: feedback or forcing?. RealClimate (6 Apr 2005). Retrieved on 2006-05-01.
  16. ^ Pearson, Paul N.; Palmer, Martin R. (2000-08-17). "Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years". Nature 406 (6797): 695–699. DOI:10.1038/35021000.
  17. ^ Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001-01-20). Retrieved on 2007-01-18.
  18. ^ Tans, Pieter. Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – Mauna Loa. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  19. ^ Prentice, I. Colin; et al. (2001-01-20). 3.7.3.3 SRES scenarios and their implications for future CO2 concentration. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  20. ^ 4.4.6. Resource Availability. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  21. ^ Sample, Ian. "Warming Hits 'Tipping Point'", The Guardian, 2005-08-11. Retrieved on 2007-01-18.
  22. ^ a b Soden, Brian J.; Held, Isacc M. (2005-11-01). "An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models" (PDF). Journal of Climate 19 (14). Retrieved on 2007-04-21. “Interestingly, the true feedback is consistently weaker than the constant relative humidity value, implying a small but robust reduction in relative humidity in all models on average" "clouds appear to provide a positive feedback in all models”
  23. ^ Stocker, Thomas F.; et al. (2001-01-20). 7.5.2 Sea Ice. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-02-11.
  24. ^ Buesseler, K.O., C.H. Lamborg, P.W. Boyd, P.J. Lam, T.W. Trull, R.R. Bidigare, J.K.B. Bishop, K.L. Casciotti, F. Dehairs, M. Elskens, M. Honda, D.M. Karl, D.A. Siegel, M.W. Silver, D.K. Steinberg, J. Valdes, B. Van Mooy, S. Wilson. (2007) "Revisiting carbon flux through the ocean's twilight zone." Science 316: 567-570.
  25. ^ Marsh, Nigel; Henrik, Svensmark (November 2000). "Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate" (PDF). Space Science Reviews 94: 215–230. DOI:10.1023/A:1026723423896. Retrieved on 2007-04-17.
  26. ^ Climate Change 2001:Working Group I: The Scientific Basis (Fig. 2.12) (2001). Retrieved on 2007-05-08.
  27. ^ Scafetta, Nicola; West, Bruce J. (2006-03-09). "Phenomenological solar contribution to the 1900–2000 global surface warming" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters 33 (5). DOI:10.1029/2005GL025539. L05708. Retrieved on 2007-05-08.
  28. ^ Stott, Peter A.; et al. (2003-12-03). "Do Models Underestimate the Solar Contribution to Recent Climate Change?". Journal of Climate 16 (24): 4079–4093. DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016%3C4079:DMUTSC%3E2.0.CO;2. Retrieved on 2007-04-16.
  29. ^ Foukal, Peter; et al. (2006-09-14). "Variations in solar luminosity and their effect on the Earth's climate.". Nature. Retrieved on 2007-04-16.
  30. ^ National Center for Atmospheric Research (2006-09-14). Changes in Solar Brightness Too Weak to Explain Global Warming. Press release. Retrieved on 2007-07-13.
  31. ^ Lockwood, Mike; Claus Fröhlich. "Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature". Proceedings of the Royal Society A. DOI:10.1098/rspa.2007.1880. Retrieved on 2007-07-21. “Our results show that the observed rapid rise in global mean temperatures seen after 1985 cannot be ascribed to solar variability, whichever of the mechanisms is invoked and no matter how much the solar variation is amplified.”
  32. ^ Smith, Thomas M.; Reynolds, Richard W. (2005-05-15). "A Global Merged Land–Air–Sea Surface Temperature Reconstruction Based on Historical Observations (1880–1997)" (PDF). Journal of Climate 18 (12): 2021–2036. ISSN 0894-8755. Retrieved on 2007-03-14.
  33. ^ Hansen, James E.; et al. (2006-01-12). Goddard Institute for Space Studies, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Retrieved on 2007-01-17.
  34. ^ Global Temperature for 2005: second warmest year on record (PDF). Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia (2005-12-15). Retrieved on 2007-04-13.
  35. ^ WMO STATEMENT ON THE STATUS OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE IN 2005 (PDF). World Meteorological Organization (2005-12-15). Retrieved on 2007-04-13.
  36. ^ Mitchell, J. F. B.; et al. (2001-01-20). 12.4.3.3 Space-time studies. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-01-04.
  37. ^ Ruddiman, William F. (March 2005). "How Did Humans First Alter Global Climate?" (PDF). Scientific American 292 (3): 46–53. Retrieved on 2007-03-05.
  38. ^ Schmidt, Gavin; et al. (2004-12-10). "A note on the relationship between ice core methane concentrations and insolation". Geophysical Research Letters 31 (23). DOI:10.1029/2004GL021083. L23206. Retrieved on 2007-03-05.
  39. ^ Hansen, James; et al. (2006-09-26). "Global temperature change" (PDF). PNAS 103: 14288–14293. Retrieved on 2007-04-20.
  40. ^ Open University (2004-01-30). The Open University Provides Answers on Global Warming (PDF). Press release. Retrieved on 2007-03-04.
  41. ^ Cohen, Anthony S.; et al. (February 2004). "Osmium isotope evidence for the regulation of atmospheric CO2 by continental weathering" (PDF). Geology 32 (2): 157–160. DOI:10.1130/G20158.1. Retrieved on 2007-03-04.
  42. ^ Summary for Policymakers. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001-01-20). Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  43. ^ Torn, Margaret; Harte, John (2006-05-26). "Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the underestimation of future warming". Geophysical Research Letters 33 (10). L10703. Retrieved on 2007-03-04.
  44. ^ Harte, John; et al. (2006-10-30). "Shifts in plant dominance control carbon-cycle responses to experimental warming and widespread drought". Environmental Research Letters 1 (1). 014001. Retrieved on 2007-05-02.
  45. ^ Scheffer, Marten; et al. (2006-05-26). "Positive feedback between global warming and atmospheric CO2 concentration inferred from past climate change.". Geophysical Research Letters 33. DOI:10.1029/2005gl025044. Retrieved on 2007-05-04.
  46. ^ Stocker, Thomas F.; et al. (2001-01-20). 7.2.2 Cloud Processes and Feedbacks. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2007-03-04.
  47. ^ a b Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001-02-16). Retrieved on 2007-03-14.
  48. ^ a b Summary for Policymakers (PDF). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-04-13). Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  49. ^ Church, John A.; et al. (2001-01-20). Executive Summary of Chapter 11. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved on 2005-12-19.
  50. ^ Thomas, Chris D.; et al. (2004-01-08). "Extinction risk from climate change" (PDF). Nature 427 (6970): 145-138. DOI:10.1038/nature02121. Retrieved on 2007-03-18.
  51. ^ McLaughlin, John F.; et al. (2002-04-30). "Climate change hastens population extinctions" (PDF). PNAS 99 (9): 6070–6074. DOI:10.1073/pnas.052131199. Retrieved on 2007-03-29.
  52. ^ At-a-glance: The Stern Review. BBC (2006-10-30). Retrieved on 2007-04-29.
  53. ^ Tol and Yohe (2006) "A Review of the Stern Review" World Economics 7(4): 233-50. See also other critiques in World Economics 7(4).
  54. ^ Brad DeLong. Do unto others....
  55. ^ John Quiggin. Stern and the critics on discounting.
  56. ^ Dlugolecki, Andrew; et al. (2002). Climate Risk to Global Economy (PDF). CEO Briefing: UNEP FI Climate Change Working Group. United Nations Environment Programme. Retrieved on 2007-04-29.
  57. ^ Kyoto Protocol Status of Ratification (PDF). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (2006-07-10). Retrieved on 2007-04-27.
  58. ^ www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/43027/story.htm. Retrieved on 2007-07-27.
  59. ^ Climate talks face international hurdles, by Arthur Max, Associated press, 5/14/07.
  60. ^ Bonn summary, IPCC website.
  61. ^ Bangkok Working group 3 meeting, IPCC website.
  62. ^ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. Retrieved on 2006-11-07.
  63. ^ Revkin, Andrew. "Poor Nations to Bear Brunt as World Warms", The New York Times, 2007-04-01. Retrieved on 2007-05-02.
  64. ^ Brahic, Catherine (2006-04-25). China's emissions may surpass the US in 2007. New Scientist. Retrieved on 2007-05-02.
  65. ^ Crampton, Thomas. "More in Europe worry about climate than in U.S., poll shows", International Herald Tribune, 2007-01-04. Retrieved on 2007-04-14.
  66. ^ Summary of Findings. Little Consensus on Global Warming. Partisanship Drives Opinion. Pew Research Center (2006-07-12). Retrieved on 2007-04-14.
  67. ^ "Exxon cuts ties to global warming skeptics", MSNBC, 2007-01-12. Retrieved on 2007-05-02.
  68. ^ Sandell, Clayton. "Report: Big Money Confusing Public on Global Warming", ABC, 2007-01-03. Retrieved on 2007-04-27.
  69. ^ "Greenpeace: Exxon still funding climate skeptics", USA TODAY, 2007-05-18. Retrieved on 2007-07-09.
  70. ^ www.ceres.org/news/news_item.php?nid=56. Retrieved on 2007-07-27.
  71. ^ Holzer, Jessica. "Global warming becomes hot topic on Capitol Hill", The Hill, 2007-01-18. Retrieved on 2007-05-02.
  72. ^ Zabarenko, Deborah. "U.S. rejects 'high cost' global warming scenarios", Reuters, 2007-05-04. Retrieved on 2007-05-04.
  73. ^ "EU agrees on carbon dioxide cuts", BCC, 2007-03-09. Retrieved on 2007-05-04.
  74. ^ "Group: China top CO2 producer", Associated Press, 2007-06-20. Retrieved on 2007-06-22.
  75. ^ Chinese object to climate draft, BBC, 5/1/07; In Battle for U.S. Carbon Caps, Eyes and Efforts Focus on China,by Steven Mufson, Washington Post, 6/6/07.
  76. ^ India's glaciers give grim message on warming, by Somni Sengupta, 7/17/07, New York Times via oregonlive.com.
  77. ^ The Ocean and the Carbon Cycle. NASA (2005-06-21). Retrieved on 2007-03-04.
  78. ^ Jacobson, Mark Z. (2005-04-02). "Studying ocean acidification with conservative, stable numerical schemes for nonequilibrium air-ocean exchange and ocean equilibrium chemistry" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (D7). DOI:10.1029/2004JD005220. D07302. Retrieved on 2007-04-28.
  79. ^ Caldeira, Ken; Wickett, Michael E. (2005-09-21). "Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean". Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (C09S04): 1–12. Retrieved on 2006-02-14.
  80. ^ Raven, John A.; et al. (2005-06-30). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide" (ASP). Royal Society. Retrieved on 2007-05-04.
« Last Edit: 31/07/2007 22:48:59 by another_someone »
 

another_someone

  • Guest
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #6 on: 31/07/2007 22:56:04 »
Right, but where does the scientific consensus come from? There's got to be some decent data. These aren't dumb people we're talking about. I understand they can be wrong, but opinions get formed from something.

Where is that something?

The same points could have been made about the people who claimed that Iraq possessed WMDs.

The problem is that if you have a cadre of people who each feed off each other, then once an idea takes hold within the group, that idea just gets recycled over and over, without anyone really going back to first principles and checking if the underlying basis for that idea makes sense.

This is not usually a major problem, since while it is a natural consequence of human nature, so long as we are dealing with purely academic science, then we can just keep going with that idea until a reality check that undermines the whole structure is finally encountered.

The trouble is (as with Iraq) when people are in a hurry to make policy decisions before having a chance to determine if that reality check actually exists, then those policy decisions are likely to be wrong (Iraq did not have WMD's, but we've now got ourselves into a big mess because we wanted to make policy before finding out if the hypothesis matched the reality).
 

Offline TheEremite

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
    • My Website
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #7 on: 01/08/2007 07:27:17 »
ok, that's a lot of reading. I read one underwhelming paper on atmospheric CO2 in the past 60 million years, but started to nod off...

Does anyone else have a suggestion of a good review to read?

btw, I agree with you about policy and science. That's why I want to read a good review on the subject. Any [more specific] suggestions?
 

Offline dentstudent

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 3146
  • FOGger to the unsuspecting
    • View Profile
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #8 on: 01/08/2007 07:32:25 »
You can also take a look at the IPCC website, where you will find the evaluations of datasets and models from literally hundreds of scientists. They are all peer reviewed journals that go to structure the documents, and so provide as unbiased an overview of CC as is possible.

The unfortunate thing it that decisions have to be made, even if that decision is to do nothing. I think it terribly unwise just to say "Well, I'm not sure about all this" and then do nothing.....However, I'm not about to start a discussion on this topic in another thread, as there are already 2 or 3 running, and for continuity, I think it should remain so. So, TheEremite, I think we all welcome your comments on the threads already in place. I would like to hear a third party's thoughts too!
 

Offline dentstudent

  • Neilep Level Member
  • ******
  • Posts: 3146
  • FOGger to the unsuspecting
    • View Profile
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #9 on: 01/08/2007 12:27:31 »
 

Offline TheEremite

  • First timers
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • View Profile
    • My Website
Global Warming Review?
« Reply #10 on: 01/08/2007 23:11:32 »
Thanks dentstudent. I guess I'll just keep hunting around.
 

The Naked Scientists Forum

Global Warming Review?
« Reply #10 on: 01/08/2007 23:11:32 »

 

SMF 2.0.10 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
SMFAds for Free Forums