Naked Science Forum

Life Sciences => The Environment => Topic started by: Petrochemicals on 11/08/2021 23:01:27

Title: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 11/08/2021 23:01:27
Extraordinary temperatures in the North hemisphere at present, dry which would suggest some sort of jet stream anomily and also strange goings on down under, more snowfall and frigid temperatures.

https://planetski.eu/2021/08/10/new-zealand-ski-areas-pounded-by-heavy-snow/

https://www.inthesnow.com/incredible-snowfalls-in-australia/

https://en.mercopress.com/2021/07/29/cold-wave-brings-snow-to-several-brazilian-cities-in-the-state-of-rio-grande-do-sul

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57654133

https://www.severe-weather.eu/europe-weather/heat-dome-mediterranean-extreme-heatwave-italy-spain-mk/

Yet the weather 6 months prior was just as bipolar.

https://12tomatoes.com/snow-in-texas/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-55791319.amp

You could call it global warming, but to me it seems like the seasons are becoming more extreme, the summer being pushed further toward the poles, winter extending further from.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Colin2B on 11/08/2021 23:16:41
Extraordinary temperatures in the North hemisphere at present, dry which would suggest some sort of jet stream anomily
Doesn’t look particularly anomalous. We have high pressure sitting to the south drawing hot dry air off the continent.
Certainly continental temperatures, particularly far Mediterranean look very high. Don’t fancy going there for hols.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 08/10/2021 18:35:18
I think it is "global wierding"

Of course, it's not good practice to confuse weather (stochastic events localized in time and space) and climate (overall systematic view with global spatial extent, and spanning several years). But I agree, 2021 has seen SO MANY weather events absolutely smash previous records (and it is continuing trends observed over the last few decades), so we can now safely say that we are seeing the effects of climate change.

This list of 2021 "most" extreme events only goes to a few weeks ago:
https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/environment/953574/worlds-most-extreme-weather-events-2021

So it doesn't include the gobsmacking rain in Italy over the last week (what does 29 inches (740 mm) of rain in 12 hours even look like? a faucet?):
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/weather/italy-flood-oman-climate-change/index.html

Please, let us try to reverse course as quickly as possible!
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 08/10/2021 22:13:14

So it doesn't include the gobsmacking rain in Italy over the last week (what does 29 inches (740 mm) of rain in 12 hours even look like? a faucet?):
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/weather/italy-flood-oman-climate-change/index.html

Please, let us try to reverse course as quickly as possible!
I have experienced 5 inches in 1.5 hours, that was quite something,  the heaviest rain you have experience but it just does not relent.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 09/10/2021 10:44:39
Interesting TV program last night about pre-Egyptian civilisation in north Africa. Rock art and various fossil finds suggest that around 10,000 BC the Sahara was fertile and supported all the large animals that are now confined further south, plus a small  human population that by 6000 BC had developed agriculture and herding. The whole area was devastated by....er...climate change. Obviously caused by worshipping the wrong gods, or cheap air travel.

Climate is inherently chaotic. Instead of blaming each other (it's never "me", because as a World Leader* I absolutely have to travel halfway across the world to attend the conference in Glasgow where we blame each other by inference) for something completely beyond our control, we should learn to live with it.


*Funny, that. I've never heard of  you, says Fred the Termite.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 09/10/2021 12:02:06
Interesting TV program last night about pre-Egyptian civilisation in north Africa. Rock art and various fossil finds suggest that around 10,000 BC the Sahara was fertile and supported all the large animals that are now confined further south, plus a small  human population that by 6000 BC had developed agriculture and herding. The whole area was devastated by....er...climate change. Obviously caused by worshipping the wrong gods, or cheap air travel.

Climate is inherently chaotic. Instead of blaming each other (it's never "me", because as a World Leader* I absolutely have to travel halfway across the world to attend the conference in Glasgow where we blame each other by inference) for something completely beyond our control, we should learn to live with it.


*Funny, that. I've never heard of  you, says Fred the Termite.
That is to do with the earth ossilation I believe, and dare I say the milankovich  cycles, the Sahara shall be green again.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/10/2021 13:13:53
we should learn to live die with it.
FTFY
Unless you actually do something about it (and we can).
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Zer0 on 15/10/2021 19:58:43
2020 & 2021 were/are Lockdown Years.

Most of Us sat Indoors.
Lot of pattern changes in the ambience of the environment, Right?

Perhaps Our drastic change in actions might somehow explain the " Weird " Climate.

Probably once Everything kicks back in full motion, say 2022 onwards, then maybe it would be Weather as Usual/Normal.

(Guess Work)
✌️
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 15/10/2021 21:03:49
2020 & 2021 were/are Lockdown Years.

Most of Us sat Indoors.
Lot of pattern changes in the ambience of the environment, Right?

Perhaps Our drastic change in actions might somehow explain the " Weird " Climate.

Probably once Everything kicks back in full motion, say 2022 onwards, then maybe it would be Weather as Usual/Normal.

(Guess Work)
✌️

Interesting guesswork... but that does not seem to me to be consistent with the evidence before us* (at least it is a verifiable hypothesis, and we shall see if things return to normal as the economy lurches forward, or if it continues to spiral out of control)

*2020, and then 2021, were both record-breaking on many levels (high and low temps, hurricanes/typhoons, fires, draughts and floods, etc.) But it's not like they were completely out of the trend: the 2018–2019 Australian fires foreshadowed what we saw in 2019-2020, and the wildfires in California have clearly been trending upward over the last few decades (https://www.valuepenguin.com/wildfire-statistics)
 [ Invalid Attachment ]

And tropical storms in the Atlantic have been increasing (at an increasing rate) over the last several decades as well.
 [ Invalid Attachment ]
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 15/10/2021 22:40:09
2020 & 2021 were/are Lockdown Years.

Most of Us sat Indoors.
Lot of pattern changes in the ambience of the environment, Right?

Perhaps Our drastic change in actions might somehow explain the " Weird " Climate.

Probably once Everything kicks back in full motion, say 2022 onwards, then maybe it would be Weather as Usual/Normal.

(Guess Work)
✌️
Record breaking fires last year, record breaking hurricanes last year, this year not so, but there is unheard of cold in Brazil and Australia, heat pushing further toward the pole in summer, coldfurther toward the equator winter. The weather is literally shifting.

I realise summer and winter as I speak are both at the same time.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 15/10/2021 23:21:47
2020 & 2021 were/are Lockdown Years.

Most of Us sat Indoors.
Lot of pattern changes in the ambience of the environment, Right?

Perhaps Our drastic change in actions might somehow explain the " Weird " Climate.
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is nothing to suggest that 2020 or 2021 (so far) were in any way different from any other year in terms of temperature and CO2 concentration. Which casts a shadow of doubt on the importance of the anthropogenic contribution to either.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 15/10/2021 23:40:15
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is nothing to suggest that 2020 or 2021 (so far) were in any way different from any other year in terms of temperature and CO2 concentration.
Because there was very little change in the consumption of fossil fuel

About 9% drop in oil use this year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/daily-global-crude-oil-demand-since-2006/

About a 3% drop in coal use
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-coal-consumption-1978-2020

Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/10/2021 09:56:55
So ~12% decrease in the principal acknowledged sources of anthropogenic CO2, with no discernible effect.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 16/10/2021 10:33:50
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is...
...This
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 16/10/2021 10:53:51
So ~12% decrease in the principal acknowledged sources of anthropogenic CO2, with no discernible effect.
Yes but co2 is a build up, over time, that's what they are stating is the source of global warming. You wouldn't expect it to show changes anytime soon.

What is mauna loa co2 anyway?
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 16/10/2021 11:02:00
What is mauna loa co2 anyway?
Is Google broken?
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/10/2021 12:10:05
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is...
...This

A line drawn through recent monthly maxima might convince a politician but it doesn't look like the least squares fit of the rest of the temperature curve. I wonder who drew it, and why?

The oscillation amplitude and mean trend of the CO2 value do not appear to have changed.

Nevertheless it's interesting to look at the fine detail. What, I wonder, accounts for the annual CO2 inflection around Jan - Mar each year? The problem of climate change is too important to be brushed aside with facile hypotheses.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 16/10/2021 12:17:04
I wonder who drew it, and why?
I drew it, in Microsoft Paint.
I did so to drive home the fact that you had made an assertion without evidence.
I produced some really shoddy evidence and, in this instance, that wins.
The problem of climate change is too important to be brushed aside with facile hypotheses.
Such as
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is nothing to suggest that 2020 or 2021 (so far) were in any way different from any other year in terms of temperature and CO2 concentration. Which casts a shadow of doubt on the importance of the anthropogenic contribution to either.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/10/2021 13:16:09
My evidence is on the Mauna Loa website, untainted by prejudice, preconception, misrepresentation or bad drawing. In fact it's the curve you used, without the misleading straight line.

Misrepresentation of data always weakens the case.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 16/10/2021 15:17:42
My evidence is on the Mauna Loa website, untainted by prejudice, preconception, misrepresentation or bad drawing. In fact it's the curve you used, without the misleading straight line.

Misrepresentation of data always weakens the case.
Your data supports my lines.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/10/2021 16:12:12
Oh come now. Your lines represent an opinion, not the data or anything much to do with it.  If you read the large print published by NOAA alongside the graph, they say that there is no discernible reduction in CO2 levels or trend ascribable to COVID, but what do they know? 
 
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 16/10/2021 17:03:11
Why does the CO2 emitted by a volcano have any major effect on world climate, I'm pretty sure if it was volcanos the boards of BP shell esso etc would have pointed this out.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 16/10/2021 18:24:59
About 9% drop in oil use this year.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/271823/daily-global-crude-oil-demand-since-2006/

About a 3% drop in coal use
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-coal-consumption-1978-2020
So ~12% decrease in the principal acknowledged sources of anthropogenic CO2
That's... that's not how arithmetic works... (otherwise I could cut down on my caviar consumption by 72% and my vodka consumption by 38% and get paid to eat like an oligarch)
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 16/10/2021 18:37:04
no discernible effect
Discernible to whom and by what method? As demonstrated by the argument between Bored chemist and alancalverd, it would seem that, maybe, just eyeballing isn't a good way to impose a limit of detection for the average slope of a slightly noisy sloped sinusoidal curve?

It's like the bootlegger who assures you that there isn't any methanol in their moonshine, cause it tastes pure... And then a quick GC is like: oh, theres 0.44% methanol in here, don't drink this!

Ok, back to CO2! Let's see if anybody has actually quantitatively looked at the data... oh look here it is:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html
 [ Invalid Attachment ]

and the data show that 2020 had an overall increase in CO2 levels (+2.3 ppm) about 9% less than the overall in 2019 (+2.5 ppm).
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 16/10/2021 18:50:39
no discernible effect
Discernible to whom and by what method? As demonstrated by the argument between Bored chemist and alancalverd, it would seem that, maybe, just eyeballing isn't a good way to impose a limit of detection for the average slope of a slightly noisy sloped sinusoidal curve?

It's like the bootlegger who assures you that there isn't any methanol in their moonshine, cause it tastes pure... And then a quick GC is like: oh, theres 0.44% methanol in here, don't drink this!

Ok, back to CO2! Let's see if anybody has actually quantitatively looked at the data... oh look here it is:
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gr.html
 [ Invalid Attachment ]

and the data show that 2020 had an overall increase in CO2 levels (+2.3 ppm) about 9% less than the overall in 2019 (+2.5 ppm).
Yes but there has bee. A big volcanic eruption in hawaii since the 80s.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pu%CA%BBu_%CA%BB%C5%8C%CA%BB%C5%8D
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 16/10/2021 18:55:15
Oh you're right. Nobody realized that there are volcanos in Hawaii until now. Decades of work invalidated! *swoon*


Oh, wait a minute, it's ok folks: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/mauna-loa-co2-record/
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 16/10/2021 19:06:31
Sorry for the extra snark y'all, but I just get really frustrated having the same silly little arguments over and over about whether or not anthropogenic climate change is real, when we should be arguing about what to doing about it!

It's not natural cycles with the sun or our orbit. It's not volcanos. We can trust our data (whether that's CO2 measurements, or surface temperatures, or IR emissions, isotope ratios...) Sea levels are rising. The water is acidifying. Land ice and permafrost are receding. Storms are becoming more frequent and stronger.

And I get that science is not a 'consensus is correct' kind of field... but when the one guy in the room disagrees with "all the experts" he must have a very compelling case. Not just, "Sunspots!" or "how do you know your instruments aren't wrong?"
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 16/10/2021 19:28:31
Oh you're right. Nobody realized that there are volcanos in Hawaii until now. Decades of work invalidated! *swoon*


Oh, wait a minute, it's ok folks: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/mauna-loa-co2-record/
So they are literally selecting the data they wish?
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 17/10/2021 11:59:59
Discernible to whom and by what method?
Discernible to NOAA, by statistical analysis, or so their website says. Not quite the same as drawing arbitrary lines on a graph to substantiate an unstated point.

Nor
Quote
and the data show that 2020 had an overall increase in CO2 levels (+2.3 ppm) about 9% less than the overall in 2019 (+2.5 ppm).
choosing a single exceptional comparator to make some other point. That isn't quantitative analysis worthy of a science forum.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/10/2021 12:19:40
Your lines represent an opinion, not the data or anything much to do with it.
I drew the lines through the data. OK, Paint isn't the best tool for that, but it is still better than your  unevinced claim.
If nothing else it actually got you to try to support your assertion, so that's good.

they say that there is no discernible reduction in CO2 levels or trend ascribable to COVID,
Well, with a reduction of the order of a few percent in fossil fuel consumption, you wouldn't expect to discern it.

Also, while "the eye of faith" may be a poor way to establish reality, it's a great deal better than Alan's idea that you can add together the individual percentage reductions to get the total reduction.
If the use of gas, shale-oil  and peat have also fallen by 5 or 10 %  does that mean the total reduction is now about 50%?
as one might put it:
That isn't quantitative analysis worthy of a science forum.

Better yet, if the Whitby Jet industry has benefitted from people staying in the UK and has trebled production, does that mean we are now using about 250% as much fossil carbon?

Not quite the same as drawing arbitrary lines on a graph to substantiate an unstated point.
I stated my point quite clearly.
Because there was very little change in the consumption of fossil fuel

It seems that everyone has focused on the fact that people used their cars less, but forgotten that many people heated their homes more.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 17/10/2021 14:15:58
f nothing else it actually got you to try to support your assertion, so that's good.
Please don't label NOAA's published analysis as my assertion. I don't do plagiarism. 
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/10/2021 14:20:52
Please don't label NOAA's published analysis as my assertion. I don't do plagiarism. 
Well... you forgot to cite it...
But if you look at the Mauna Loa data, there is nothing to suggest that 2020 or 2021 (so far) were in any way different from any other year in terms of temperature and CO2 concentration.
Citing (sort- of) the data is not the same as citing the interpretation, is it?
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Zer0 on 17/10/2021 15:59:36
Hi Chiral!
🙂

Thanks for All those Statistical slides.

Honestly, it's Scary!

Aren't there ways to just suck up the  CO2 back from the environment?

We are still not really capable of controlling climate, but atleast We could try somehow?

Have WE reached the Point of No Return?
☹️
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 17/10/2021 16:20:26
Hi Chiral!
🙂

Thanks for All those Statistical slides.
you're welcome :-)

Honestly, it's Scary!
It's certainly not comforting...

Aren't there ways to just suck up the  CO2 back from the environment?

Yeah, but there are two major problems with it: how much money and material and energy is spent cleaning it up, and what do we do with it then? There are some advances being made with people using captured carbon dioxide to make fuels (at least that's carbon neutral), solvents, simple edible organic compounds, and even diamonds (cool, but not practical). Some are trying to pump it into volcanic chambers where it can be absorbed by the calcined minerals.

We are still not really capable of controlling climate, but atleast We could try somehow?

We need to try a lot harder (and faster!)

Have WE reached the Point of No Return?
☹️

There isn't a point of no return really (Earth has had many climates before), it's just an issue of whether we can return in our lifetimes (unfortunately, almost certainly not mine or yours–climates typically change slowly, and I doubt that we will be able to just "pop it back" to the way it was).

We can begin our return at any moment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, helping to regenerate carbon-negative ecosystems, investing in industrial-scale carbon capture/conversion technologies, and maybe even trying to increase the albedo of various parts of the globe with mirrors.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 17/10/2021 16:22:10
Hi Chiral!
🙂

Thanks for All those Statistical slides.
you're welcome :-)

Honestly, it's Scary!
It's certainly not comforting...

Aren't there ways to just suck up the  CO2 back from the environment?

Yeah, but there are two major problems with it: how much money and material and energy is spent cleaning it up, and what do we do with it then? There are some advances being made with people using captured carbon dioxide to make fuels (at least that's carbon neutral), solvents, simple edible organic compounds, and even diamonds (cool, but not practical). Some are trying to pump it into volcanic chambers where it can be absorbed by the calcined minerals.

We are still not really capable of controlling climate, but atleast We could try somehow?

We need to try a lot harder (and faster!)

Have WE reached the Point of No Return?
☹️

There isn't a point of no return really (Earth has had many climates before), it's just an issue of whether we can return in our lifetimes, (unfortunately, almost certainly not mine or yours–climates typically change slowly, and I doubt that we will be able to just "pop it back" to the way it was), or those of our grandchildren, or if we are jut going to have to limit the change and adjust to a new normal. (+1.8 °C is not great, but it's better than +4.2 °C!!)

We can begin our return at any moment by reducing greenhouse gas emissions, helping to regenerate carbon-negative ecosystems, investing in industrial-scale carbon capture/conversion technologies, and maybe even trying to increase the albedo of various parts of the globe with mirrors.

Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 17/10/2021 19:19:31
Oh you're right. Nobody realized that there are volcanos in Hawaii until now. Decades of work invalidated! *swoon*


Oh, wait a minute, it's ok folks: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/mauna-loa-co2-record/
Looking into this further, it seems they have located their co2 monitors by volcanoes
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/10/2021 19:31:12
Oh you're right. Nobody realized that there are volcanos in Hawaii until now. Decades of work invalidated! *swoon*


Oh, wait a minute, it's ok folks: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/climateqa/mauna-loa-co2-record/
Looking into this further, it seems they have located their co2 monitors by volcanoes
Everyone knows that.
So..?
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 20/10/2021 14:30:34
Aren't there ways to just suck up the  CO2 back from the environment?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/20/world/carbon-capture-storage-climate-iceland-intl-cmd/index.html
 [ Invalid Attachment ]
Quote
It opened last month and currently removes about 10 metric tons of CO2 every day, which is roughly the the same amount of carbon emitted by 800 cars a day in the US. It's also about the same amount of carbon 500 trees could soak up in a year.
It's a fine start, but in the grand scheme of things, its impact so far is miniscule. Humans emit around 35 billion tons of greenhouse gas a year through the cars we drive and flights we take, the power we use to heat our homes and the food — in particular the meat — that we eat, among other activities.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 20/10/2021 17:12:22
Aren't there ways to just suck up the  CO2 back from the environment?
Plant trees - or just stop cutting them down.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: chiralSPO on 22/10/2021 16:54:52
even diamonds
https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/made-from-co2-concrete-lululemons-diamonds-spark-investor-excitement-2021-10-04/
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 22/10/2021 23:09:45
Quote
The machines at Orca are just one way to remove CO2 from the air. Other methods involve capturing the gas at source — like the chimney of a cement factory — or removing it from the fuel before combustion. That involves exposing the fuel, such as coal or natural gas, to oxygen or steam under high temperature and pressure to convert it into a mixture of hydrogen and CO2. The hydrogen is then separated and can be burned with much lower carbon emissions.
which is exactly how we used to make town gas 150 years ago.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/10/2021 16:48:53
which is exactly how we used to make town gas 150 years ago.
No, it's not.
Title: Re: What's going on with the climate?
Post by: alancalverd on 24/10/2021 00:32:59
"Water gas" and "producer gas" were the principal constituents of town gas in my youth, formed by alternating steam and air flowing over hot coke.

IIRC the air flow  was restricted to generate CO rather than CO2 and raise the carbon to white heat, then steam was added to generate hydrogen and more CO endothermically, until the carbon cooled to red heat and the cycle repeated.