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Just Chat! / Re: UK seasonal death trends
« on: 16/04/2020 04:21:17 »
I suspect the usual problem with death statistics: they are recorded, not actual deaths. The graph is very fine-grained, to the extent that you can pick out a specific day on each curve. The August dip seems to correspond exactly with a bank holiday. You have five days in which to register a death, so very few will be registered on the bank holiday when most young people (those more likely to be making the registration) are not at home.
This also explains the New Year dip, particularly as the registration period is 8 days in Scotland, where the whole country shuts down for Hogmanay. The Easter dip (BC's "financial year" dip) is broad and fuzzy, because the bank holiday is a variable feast and includes Friday. But I'm intrigued by the huge dip around 16 June 2019 - can anyone remember what happened?
Despite the Grauniad's claim that "research shows a 6% increase in patient death rates", "Black Wednesday", when junior doctors start their clinical postings, shows no significant fluctuation at the beginning of August. IIRC there's plenty of hilarity among the nurses as the newbies try to find the toilet and the cafeteria, but not a lot of serious errors, and elective surgery is at a minimum during school holidays. It may be true that 6% more patients die in August, but that is because there are fewer patients overall in hospital, so deaths of patients are not diluted by minor illnesses and surgical recovery, but overall deaths remain normal.
This also explains the New Year dip, particularly as the registration period is 8 days in Scotland, where the whole country shuts down for Hogmanay. The Easter dip (BC's "financial year" dip) is broad and fuzzy, because the bank holiday is a variable feast and includes Friday. But I'm intrigued by the huge dip around 16 June 2019 - can anyone remember what happened?
Despite the Grauniad's claim that "research shows a 6% increase in patient death rates", "Black Wednesday", when junior doctors start their clinical postings, shows no significant fluctuation at the beginning of August. IIRC there's plenty of hilarity among the nurses as the newbies try to find the toilet and the cafeteria, but not a lot of serious errors, and elective surgery is at a minimum during school holidays. It may be true that 6% more patients die in August, but that is because there are fewer patients overall in hospital, so deaths of patients are not diluted by minor illnesses and surgical recovery, but overall deaths remain normal.
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