Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => The Environment => Topic started by: Jolly2 on 13/12/2020 20:31:01
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Every 350 to 400 years the sun enters into a cooling period apparently it is possible the sun has re-entered that phrase now.
As such we could be facing a comming mini ice age.
What are the steps we can take to prepare for this?
What are the farming solutions, considering that the last solar minimum lead to mass crop failures?
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Every 350 to 400 years the sun enters into a cooling period
Many have commented on the fact that in the late 1600s, a period with very low sunspot activity correlated with low temperatures in Europe, a period called the Maunder minimum.
Western scientists have only admitted the existence of sunspots since Galileo (abut 400 years), and you want to see something repeating at least 3 times before you called it a "pattern".
- Chinese astronomers have been counting sunspots a bit longer...
- it is hard to see where the 400-year cycle comes from - we just don't have enough direct observations.
You can infer solar activity from carbon-14 records
- This hints at some long-term cycles, but I don't see any 400-year cycles mentioned.
- The solar cycle is currently very robust, so I don't see a period of solar minimum occurring any time soon.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Hypothesized_cycles
In reality, the Sun's magnetic field and the Earth's magnetic field are produced by turbulence deep in their interior.
- This is a somewhat chaotic behavior, so patterns could come and go randomly
- At least for the past 300 years, a roughly periodic 11-year Sunspot cycle has been fairly consistent
- But attempts to find correlations between this 11-year cycle and temperatures on Earth or crop failures or economic recessions has so far produced a lot of noise, but no real signal.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspots_(economics) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspots_(economics))
we could be facing a coming mini ice age
Some people were concerned about this in the 1960s.
- Since then, the accelerating injection of anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has caused temperatures to rise - quite rapidly, by geological scales.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate
Some people evidently missed the memo, and so you can see science fiction movies like Sunshine, where they had to reignite the failing fusion in the Sun.
- The movie was not without its merits (as I recall, the visuals were stunning), but science was not among its qualities.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_(2007_film) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_(2007_film))
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Every 350 to 400 years the sun enters into a cooling period
Many have commented on the fact that in the late 1600s, a period with very low sunspot activity correlated with low temperatures in Europe, a period called the Maunder minimum.
Western scientists have only admitted the presence of sunspots since Galileo (abut 400 years), and you want to see something repeating at least 3 times before you called it a "pattern".
- Chinese astronomers have been counting sunspots a bit longer...
- it is hard to see where the 400-year cycle comes from - we just don't have enough direct observations.
You can infer solar activity from carbon-14 records
- This hints at some long-term cycles, but I don't see any 400-year cycles mentioned.
- The solar cycle is currently very robust, so I don't see a period of solar minimum occurring any time soon.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Hypothesized_cycles
In reality, the Sun's magnetic field and the Earth's magnetic field are produced by turbulence deep in their interior.
- This is a somewhat chaotic behavior, so patterns could come and go randomly
- At least for the past 300 years, a roughly periodic 11-year Sunspot cycle has been fairly consistent
- But attempts to find correlations between this 11-year cycle and temperatures on Earth or crop failures or economic recessions has so far produced a lot of noise, but no real signal.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspots_(economics)
we could be facing a coming mini ice age
Some people were concerned about this in the 1960s.
- Since then, the accelerating injection of anthropogenic CO2 and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere has caused temperatures to rise - quite rapidly, by geological scales.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity_and_climate
Some people evidently missed the memo, and so you can see science fiction movies like Sunshine, where they had to reignite the failing fusion in the Sun.
- The movie was not without its merits (as I recall, the visuals were stunning), but science was not among its qualities.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunshine_(2007_film)
Thanks fo the reply.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum
Never heard it called the Maunder Minimum before.
So you are not concern at all? Personally I think it's better to be prepared just incase.
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1. There's no way we can "prepare" for a Grand Solar Minimum, because, no one has been promoting the idea, so no one really cares about it.
2. Even people who believe it is happening, cannot agree what the worse effects will be, nor how much the planet will, cool, for how long, ...
3. The evidence for a GSM consists of projection from a model derived from statistics of just 3 solar cycles. Many people will not believe it is happening until they experience it. Why would you?
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This is a somewhat chaotic behavior, so patterns could come and go randomly
The solar research team I know of around Valentina Zharkova strongly dispute the "chaotic" idea. They think it is as regular as clockwork.
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The solar research team I know of around Valentina Zharkova strongly dispute the "chaotic" idea. They think it is as regular as clockwork.
One of the first computational models demonstrating chaotic behavior was with circulating fluids in a rotating frame and clockwork heat input.
- It was an attempt to model the weather
- That's why weather forecasting is such a challenge, consuming huge amounts of data and immense amounts of computer power
The Sun is basically just circulating fluids (plasma) in a rotating frame and steady heat input, which drives the Sun's magnetic cycle
- Just like the Earth's outer core is basically just circulating fluids (molten iron/nickel) in a rotating frame and steady heat input, which drives the Earth's magnetic cycle. We know from geological records that this is pretty chaotic.
There have been attempts to model the Sun's and Earth's magnetic field cycle in the lab, and in computers; the chaotic nature of the Navier-Stokes equations (modeling the fluid flow) becomes even more complex when interacting with the varying magnetic fields.
- But because the Earth's outer core is more viscous than the Sun's plasma, the Earth's magnetic field is more chaotic than the Sun.
So while Solar Weather displays some periodic behavior (especially the 22-year cycle), clockwork it is not.
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The question of whether the sun is completely chaotic (as I'm told here) or has regular patterns in its magnetic behaviour will be resolved in the next 33 years as we experience either a GSM or something else. I have a hard time seeing how fluid mechanics relates to the sun's internal magnetic fields; as some people claim. If the solar minimum continues past this current cycle (which ends in 2031), then it's "grand"; and the self-styled climate consensus are unable to explain how the sun behaves. Let's wait and see.
Either way: I don't see how fluid mechanics / chaos fans / IPCC "climate consensus" can explain even the last 3 cycles. Peak magnetic activity going from strong, to medium, to weak (evidenced by sun spot number decline). If they cite research based on actual observation I can be convinced. Sitting on a high horse,like Platonists, declaring they know everything about nature convinces only their acolytes. Dictats aren't part of the scientific method; careful observation certainly is.
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Every 350 to 400 years the sun enters into a cooling period apparently it is possible the sun has re-entered that phrase now.
As such we could be facing a comming mini ice age.
What are the steps we can take to prepare for this?
What are the farming solutions, considering that the last solar minimum lead to mass crop failures?
Lots and lots and lots of plastic sheeting should fix the problem of crop failures, covering the crops from excessive rain or cold temperatures works miracles with current crops. Keep live stock in barns and harvest the grass. But you are right, enough plastic to cover all the fields is a large amount that is not quickly produced. People will also have to help in the installation and use of this plastic protection.
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whether the sun is completely chaotic (as I'm told here) or has regular patterns in its magnetic behaviour
These are not mutually exclusive scenarios.
- A dripping tap is an example of a simple chaotic system
- A dripping tap can have a periodic pattern of drip, drip, drip that lasts for hours
- And suddenly it changes to a different pattern of double drips that lasts for seconds or hours, and then it might switch back (or switch to a new pattern altogether)
The Sun has had a fairly predictable sunspot behavior for the past 250 years, dominated by the (roughly) 22-year cycle.
- But for the 80 year period before that, it did not really fit this pattern very well at all.
- So you can't confidently predict the future behavior based on the past 250 years, or the next 33 years.
- You can guess that something like a 22-year cycle will continue - but don't be surprised if it doesn't.
If they cite research based on actual observation I can be convinced
See actual observations here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum#/media/File:Sunspot_Numbers.png
Question: Of what are you so resistant to being convinced?
I don't see how ... IPCC "climate consensus" can explain even the last 3 (sunspot) cycles
There have been searches for correlations between Earth's climate and sunspot cycles.
- There is at best a tenuous link to the 22-year cycle. The power of Sunlight varies 1366 +/- 0.5W/m2 over the sunspot cycle, as shown by actual observations here (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#/media/File:Solar-cycle-data.png).
- The Maunder minimum was a time of lower-than-average temperatures. But there is a limit to what you can deduce from a single event.
However, the IPCC climate consensus is based on 60 years of records of direct CO2 measurements and rapid improvements in Earth temperature measurements. This spans 60 cycles of Earth's seasons.
- The overwhelming consensus is that:
- Human CO2 emissions have have increased dramatically since the start of the industrial revolution
- This has measurably increased the CO2 content of the atmosphere (changing the pH of the oceans)
- This has measurably increased the Earth's temperature and on current trends is expected to continue having an impact for many decades to come (probably at least a century)
So the IPCC does not need to worry about sunspot cycles, because human activities totally dominate any impact from the 22-year cycle.
- If there is another Maunder minimum in the immediate future, that might give us a much-needed reprieve to get our house in order.
- The Maunder minimum took 50 years to take effect; we had better get our CO2 emissions under control in the next 50 years.
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Every 350 to 400 years the sun enters into a cooling period apparently it is possible the sun has re-entered that phrase now.
As such we could be facing a comming mini ice age.
What are the steps we can take to prepare for this?
What are the farming solutions, considering that the last solar minimum lead to mass crop failures?
I've just read about the Munder minimum, fortunately summers where not all that different. Famines occoured sporadically throughout but it did not affect the food production in general. It may affect modern farming procedures more though, we crop the fields more often and have a far tighter food production regimen and a far greater populace. It is a thought that if the entire food production of the Northern hemisphere where curtailed, what would be the effect?