An essay in futility, too long to read :)

yor_on · « **Reply #41260 on:** 31/01/2023 12:44:28 »

Beliefs?

yor_on · « **Reply #41261 on:** 31/01/2023 12:47:03 »

Well, I don't give that much for beliefs, they only seem to make us clash.

Colin2B · « **Reply #41262 on:** 31/01/2023 22:50:40 »

Quote from: yor_on on 29/01/2023 08:36:06

As for economy I agree, it's a indivisible part of all geopolitics.

Although they often go together they are also often separate, not a good idea to consider them indivisible as it leads to woolly thinking.

yor_on · « **Reply #41263 on:** 01/02/2023 08:45:19 »

Theoretically one might want it that way but practically all geopolitics I've seen becomes a mix. I don't think you will get a correct picture without it Colin

yor_on · « **Reply #41264 on:** 01/02/2023 08:47:29 »

So looking at those three articles I linked

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/west-antarctic-ice-sheet-collapse-climate-change

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/Hansen.2021.Foreword.DellaSalaConservationBook.pdf

and https://joidesresolution.org/expedition/379/

yor_on · « **Reply #41265 on:** 01/02/2023 08:51:01 »

This becomes wrong, still right but also wrong

" The new study attempts to resolve a hot topic of debate among scientists who investigate ocean currents: whether the AMOC's recent weakening means it will simply circulate a little bit more slowly but in a way that humans can reduce through lowering carbon emissions, or if it means the AMOC is about to flip to a permanently weaker form that could not be reversed for hundreds of years. "

the debate isn't only about the AMOC (gulf stream) getting weaker, it's also about it stopping.

https://www.livescience.com/gulf-stream-close-to-collapse

yor_on · « **Reply #41266 on:** 01/02/2023 08:56:15 »

So what does it mean for us?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01097-4

A modelling for the UK

"Shifts in national land use and food production in Great Britain after a climate tipping point"

https://www.exeter.ac.uk/media/universityofexeter/collegeofsocialsciencesandinternationalstudies/leep/documents/research/Ritchie-et-al-2020-AMOC-NatureFood.pdf

yor_on · « **Reply #41267 on:** 01/02/2023 09:06:32 »

Hansen 2021

" Shutdown of AMOC yields large climate change in the North Atlantic with a downstream impact on Europe. The reduced north-ward ocean heat transport also warms the Southern Ocean—an interhemispheric “seesaw” effect (Stocker, 1998). However, the research community and IPCC concluded that AMOC would not shut down this century; it would only slow down somewhat more than it has already (IPCC, 2019).

Our conclusions differed dramatically. We found that SMOC is more important than AMOC because of its effect on future sea level rise. For business-as-usual scenarios used by IPCC, we found that SMOC would shut down by mid century. AMOC would also shut down this century and would not recover for centuries. "

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/Documents/Hansen.2021.Foreword.DellaSalaConservationBook.pdf

yor_on · « **Reply #41268 on:** 01/02/2023 09:18:17 »

which connects to this paper from 2016

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.01393.pdf

yor_on · « **Reply #41269 on:** 01/02/2023 09:28:03 »

And it's not only about temperatures. It's also about sea rises, a lot higher than the IPPC envisions. What that would do to low laying countries as f.ex Bangladesh and Pakistan should be no less than a major catastrophe. And incitements to wars, as religious, economic and other tensions becomes unbearable.

spelling

yor_on · « **Reply #41270 on:** 01/02/2023 09:31:07 »

We used to have those wars by swords and bows, today we're preparing to do them by nuclear bombs.

yor_on · « **Reply #41271 on:** 01/02/2023 09:33:38 »

It's about geopolitics, economy, food and water, and having no choice.

yor_on · « **Reply #41272 on:** 01/02/2023 09:36:46 »

And what it will do to the eco and biodiversity is to kill it, as people try to survive.

yor_on · « **Reply #41273 on:** 01/02/2023 09:42:49 »

It's very much about the kind of world we want to live in. One defined by a dead earth, lab food and Sci fi domes? Or one like we used to live in? With a healthy mix of eco and bio diversity

yor_on · « **Reply #41274 on:** 01/02/2023 09:43:36 »

one kid per family seems a good first choice to me, for this century.

yor_on · « **Reply #41275 on:** 01/02/2023 10:07:36 »

the impossibility of that idea tells us something, doesn't it?

About how little it differs us from the rest of nature. Instincts and urges.

yor_on · « **Reply #41276 on:** 01/02/2023 10:08:26 »

Forget about 'race'. We're one species.

yor_on · « **Reply #41277 on:** 01/02/2023 10:11:19 »

so we're not going to change anything here. Infra structures, your wallet, or getting a democracy.

yor_on · « **Reply #41278 on:** 01/02/2023 10:11:55 »

We're a worst case scenario

yor_on · « **Reply #41279 on:** 01/02/2023 10:19:20 »

Surprising?

" On Monday, Russia told the United States that the treaty could expire in 2026 without a replacement because it said Washington was trying to inflict “strategic defeat” on Moscow in Ukraine. "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/31/us-russia-new-start-nuclear-arms-treaty

and definitely a very dangerous sign of the times