[Zer0 (OP)]

Lots of Buzz over Climate Change & Global Warming...As Always.

But in Relatable terms, what's the Tipping Point?

Is it like a Point of No Return?

P.S. - How much Bad Stuff are We talking bout here?
Like Global Floods & Category 10 Hurricanes & Volcanic Eruptions & All?

[alancalverd]

There will come a point where there is so much water in the atmosphere that surface temperature begins to decrease. As has happened many times previously.

But I think True Believers think it means that temperatures will rise inexorably until the entire planet fries and all the water boils off, as may have happened to Mars.

[paul cotter]

Any system with both positive and negative feedback will be hard to analyse effectively.

[Petrochemicals]

There is not one, at least with reasonable boundaries, obviously when the sun expands past the earths orbit that may scotch the possibilities of life.

The earth is a refrigerant controlled planet, whilst it may warm slightly or cool slightly the atmosphere expands and conveys energy to be radiated into space, the surface may warm slightly but we will not have athe catastropy in the long term.

[evan_au]

what's the Tipping Point?

The metaphor comes from an old-fashioned set of scales. If you load more and more weight onto the higher pan, eventually you reach a point where it falls all the way to the bottom.
- Effectively, the scales transition quickly to a different stable state. This is a characteristic of non-linear systems.
- If the height of the upper pan dropped by 10%, then you would know you are approaching the tipping point. Balance scales are linear over a small part of their range - that's how you can achieve a horizontal balance when the two weights exactly match.

In a system as complex as the world's climate, there is not just one linear system, but many different non-linear systems.
- Hence there is not one tipping point, but many different tipping points, where individual non-linear systems could flip into a new state.

One example is the methane clathrates - a solid ice/methane mixture which occurs near methane seeps in the deep ocean. This mixture is semi-stable when the deep-ocean temperature is very low. 
- However, if it warms by a couple of degrees, it disintegrates into liquid water and methane gas; the methane bubbles to the surface.
- If the clathrate deposit is disturbed, it disintegrates, which increases the risks of mining this potentially lucrative resource. Imagine your floating drilling rig sinking in an ocean whose density suddenly drops as methane bubbles to the surface
- The concern here is that the ocean's convection currents are taking warmed surface water down deep where the clathrates exist. If the the temperature rises too much, the clathrate deposits could break down, increasing methane in the atmosphere and increasing the rate of warming (a positive feedback loop, a characteristic of non-linear systems).
- Disintegration of clathrate deposits has already been spotted in some shallow parts of the arctic. Bigger deposits exist on the continental shelves of the continents.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clathrate_hydrate

[Zer0 (OP)]

Hmm...no Optimistic replies.

All doomy & gloomy.

I do Not expect issues like Climate Change or Global Warming to be Resolved any time soon, Well not in this Century atleast.

Seems like We are tip toeing towards Doomsday!

P.S. - So what should i start building up right now?
An Ark, a Submarine or a SpaceShip?

[evan_au]

An Ark, a Submarine or a SpaceShip?

Elon Musk is betting on the spaceship.

That's probably beyond the means of the average person, so I suggest solar cells and an electric car (or a hybrid if full-electric is beyond your means).
- Elon Musk is also betting on the electric car...

In reality, people in Western countries are well-protected against climate extremes by their wealth and a social safety net.
- Provided you take sensible precautions like:
     - Don't build your dream home right on the ocean beach
     - Don't buy a home in the middle of a highly flammable forest
     - Ensure your house is well-insulated against extremes of heat and cold
- It is the poorest 2/3 of the world population who live from day to day, have no reserves of wealth and no social safety net.
- The war in Ukraine has pushed up the price of food and energy - bad news for those who are now below the breadline.

[paul cotter]

No tip-toeing. With our current and expanding population we hurtling towards the cliff.

[alancalverd]

As a last resort, you could ask whoever talks about tipping points, exactly what they mean by it.

It's fairly obvious when the weight vector moves outside the base perimeter of an object in equilibrium, but the earth's climate has never been in equilibrium.

[Colin2B]

Hmm...no Optimistic replies.

I do Not expect issues like Climate Change or Global Warming to be Resolved any time soon, Well not in this Century atleast.

Seems like We are tip toeing towards Doomsday!

I think there are 2 effects that we need to keep separate in our minds.
A tipping point is a catastrophic change of state similar to an overfilled dam bursting and dragging the dam wall down, a final straw.
This is quite different from a point of no return. There are debates here in some environmental threads whether we have the resources or ability to reverse any human contribution to climate change.
I don’t think spaceships are the answer, but survival is likely to depend on where you live and how well you can defend that place and any food you grow - at both a local and national level.

[Zer0 (OP)]

Great Valuable Insights Evan

Mr Cotter you seem to be pretty good with choosing words, Well Said!

Evan Mr Tesla's cars still need Electricity, which will ultimately come from a Coal plant.
The car does not pollute the roads but still ends up accountable for pollution.

@ Colin
i cannot stand extreme summer.
i garden mostly flowers, no grains.
i cannot swim.
Air conditioning gives me headaches.
& I do Not own any firearms.
Yaa, i can go without food & water for days, but i won't last long.
☹️

[Colin2B]

Air conditioning gives me headaches.

And uses energy.
We close curtains on the sunny side, open widows on the other. High ceilings help

, i can go without food & water for days, but i won't last long.

rule of thumb, 3 days without water depending on temp, humidity and level of activity.

[Zer0 (OP)]

Thanks for the Insights & Rule of Thumb Colin

P.S. - 👍

[Peter11]

One of the tipping points is ignored by humans which is world population.Being such a short lived creature we only have the foresight of about ten years.Anything pass the we don't think much about.Humans would of been much better living longer and breeding less as a species.We have over run every habitat 6th largest mammal die off in earths history and continue to destroy the enviroment that we have a symbiotic relationship with.We are alive because they are alive without them we will die.Nothing can be fixed until the population is stable demand will increase and prices will shyrocket.The fact is we live in a over populated planet and seem incapable of understanding that like many species before us.A species lives at most 3  million years there will be plenty of time for another species to evolve before the earths demise.Plenty of time for more species to evolve earths story does not live and die with humans.

[alancalverd]

Precisely the case.

All you have to do is get rid of religion and economics, and persuade women not to have more than one child.

Their grandchildren and subsequent generations will be able to live sustainably, with an increasing standard of living, and the human race will be able to survive the inevitable changes of climate  for the next million years.

Not a bad legacy for doing nothing.

[Zer0 (OP)]

Excellent Point of View Peter.

It is Frequently brought up by Alan on the Forum.

I Doubt if Population is even on the Agenda of COP-27.

It definitely feels like the Crux of the whole problem We are facing.

[vhfpmr]

This is a characteristic of non-linear systems.

There's no on-linearity required, a linear system with positive feedback will go unstable when the loop gain is greater than or equal to unity.

[alancalverd]

Uhm, I don't see why, but your theory appealed to me)

You can divide Western society into three cohorts. 

Age  0 - 20, we generally consume goods and services provided by the "working fraction" who pay taxes and build pension funds.

Age 20 - 60 is the working fraction, who produce goods, services and wealth

Age 60 - 100 is the retired group, with numbers at each age declining roughly linearly, and consuming goods, services and the benefits of the pensions they have paid for.

Consider a stable state. If every woman bears two children at the age of 20 (we're talking rough statistics, not biology!) there are equal numbers in the 0 - 20 and 60 - 100 cohort, and the total equals the number in the 20 - 60 group Thus the present working fraction is about 0.5, supporting the other half of the population.

If we now restrict reproduction to one child per female, the 0 - 20 cohort decreases and the working fraction increases gradually from 0.5 to about 0.6. We thus have more goods, services and wealth to spend on fewer consumers (child and adolescent service providers can be reassigned to support the elderly).

If you maintain the one child limit for 100 years, the residual population will be about one tenth of the starting value, still occupying the same area and thus with 10 times the natural resources and amenities per capita, plus the accrued benefits of the intervening period of increased per capita production and investment. Around this point, you can revert to a 2-child norm and stabilise the population.

A population of around 10,000,000 can live completely sustainably at a very high standard of comfort within the British Isles.

[Zer0 (OP)]

& Welcome to the Forum Eric!

[EricNewman]

Uhm, I don't see why, but your theory appealed to me)

You can divide Western society into three cohorts. 

Age  0 - 20, they generally consume goods and services provided by the "working fraction" who pay taxes and build pension funds.

Age 20 - 60 is the working fraction, who produce goods, services and wealth

Age 60 - 100 is the retired group, with numbers at each age declining roughly linearly, and consuming goods, services and the benefits of the pensions they have paid for.

Consider a stable state. If every woman bears two children at the age of 20 (we're talking rough statistics, not biology!) there are equal numbers in the 0 - 20 and 60 - 100 cohort, and the total equals the number in the 20 - 60 group Thus the present working fraction is about 0.5, supporting the other half of the population.

If we now restrict reproduction to one child per female, the 0 - 20 cohort decreases and the working fraction increases gradually from 0.5 to about 0.6. We thus have more goods, services and wealth to spend on fewer consumers (child and adolescent service providers can be reassigned to support the elderly).

If you maintain the one child limit for 100 years, the residual population will be about one tenth of the starting value, still occupying the same area and thus with 10 times the natural resources and amenities per capita, plus the accrued benefits of the intervening period of increased per capita production and investment. Around this point, you can revert to a 2-child norm and stabilise the population.

A population of around 10,000,000 can live completely sustainably at a very high standard of comfort within the British Isles.

I see a little side of danger in each of these cohorts for our climate.