[Bored chemist]

And you are failing to notice the lockdown measures in Wuhan came into effect way after the outbreak started.

People did not wait until there was official confirmation of a pandemic before they started to act differently.
However it is  the sum of those changes that brought the R0 value down from about 6.5 to about 3.3.

And you are ignoring the actual data which show that , at the outset, the R0 value was about 6.5.

Why are you doing that?

Under the numbers you cite, you would have expected 20,000 deaths at the end of December.

And again.

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 13:59:02
The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider that R0 changes because people change their behaviour.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

With the secound data set.

Weekly incubation period and an R.0 of 3.

Past infections .  current infections

Patient 0
Week 1.  1              ,   3
Week 2   3              ,   9
Week 3   9              ,  27
Week 4   27            ,  81
Week 5   81            ,  243
Week 6 243            ,  729
Week 7  729           , 2,187
Week 8 2,187         , 6,561
Week 9 6,561         , 19,683
Week 10 19,683     , 59,049
Week 11 59,049     , 177,147
Week 12 177,147   , 531,441
Week 13 531,441   , 1,594,323
Week 14 1,594,323 , 4,782,969

After one month from patient 0

You have between 30 to 80 people infected. With patient 0 in mid September.

The Wuhan games are at this time

 Wuhan 2019, was held from October 18–27, 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China.

There were just under 10,000 athletes taking part in the games.
That's not including people that watched them, or officials involved in referring the games.

I cant find actual numbers for total people present but we could easily assume a few thousand more, watching and refereeing.

There are claims by many athletes that they got sick during the games.

With an R0 3 and a week incubation period. Those infected at the games would then each travel to their home countries afterwards.

There is this story about French soldiers returning sick from wuhan.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/french-army-returned-wuhan-military-21988912

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8291755/Did-European-athletes-catch-coronavirus-competing-World-Military-Games-Wuhan-OCTOBER.html

The second data set certianly matches with the wuhan games as the source.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

And you are failing to notice the lockdown measures in Wuhan came into effect way after the outbreak started.

People did not wait until there was official confirmation of a pandemic before they started to act differently.
However it is  the sum of those changes that brought the R0 value down from about 6.5 to about 3.3.

And you are ignoring the actual data which show that , at the outset, the R0 value was about 6.5.

Why are you doing that?

Under the numbers you cite, you would have expected 20,000 deaths at the end of December.

And again.

Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 13:59:02
The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider that R0 changes because people change their behaviour.

No if that were true an R0 7 would have lead to 20,000 deaths in a matter of a few weeks. Which didnt happen.

Grow up and troll somewhere else.

[Bored chemist]

There are claims by many athletes that they got sick during the games.

Is there real any evidence that any of them got covid, or is this just irrelevant padding?

[Bored chemist]

No if that were true an R0 7 would have lead to 20,000 deaths in a matter of a few weeks. Which didnt happen.

Do you actually understand what I  mean when I say this?

R0 changes because people change their behaviour.

Because I keep saying it, and you keep ignoring it.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

No if that were true an R0 7 would have lead to 20,000 deaths in a matter of a few weeks. Which didnt happen.

Do you actually understand what I  mean when I say this?

R0 changes because people change their behaviour.

Because I keep saying it, and you keep ignoring it.

China mandates mask wearing Jan 21st -22nd 2020. At least 2 months after the outbreak started.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7916613/Wuhan-government-orders-residents-wear-face-masks-public.html

Furthermore the Chinese government didnt tell the Chinese people there was an active virus until Jan 20th.
"This meeting occurred 13 days before Xi's first public comments on the outbreak on 20 January"

Grow up and stop trolling

[Bored chemist]

Why do you keep saying things like

China mandates mask wearing Jan 21st -22nd 2020. At least 2 months after the outbreak started.

after I already pointed out that

People did not wait until there was official confirmation of a pandemic before they started to act differently.

Essentially, you seem to be saying that the Chinese people and, in particular their healthcare  professionals, were too stupid to notice the outbreak until the Chinese government told them about it. So they didn't do anything to reduce teh spread.

Well who do you think told the government?

[Bored chemist]

The fact is that the people knew something was wrong, because the doctors were telling them about it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51364382

The fact that the Chinese government tried to lie about it and delayed reporting honestly is beside the point.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

The fact is that the people knew something was wrong, because the doctors were telling them about it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51364382

The fact that the Chinese government tried to lie about it and delayed reporting honestly is beside the point.

That's the best you got. Sad

We know the government was lying,  and we know some people infected were taking about it.

Doesnt change the reality that a virus with an R0 of 7 with an incubation of 3 days would lead to millions infected in a matter of weeks. And 1000s of related deaths.

The low numbers of people talking before the government confirmed an outbreak on the 20th of January,  wouldn't have prevented an explosion in cases or 1000s of expected deaths, with an R0 of 7 between October and December.

Your data is wrong. And no doubt produced as a scare tactic. 

It's clear the R0 is between 1.4 and 3.28. As Germany, WHO, CDC, China and Sweden, all have studies to prove.

Stop wasting peoples time.

[Bored chemist]

Doesnt change the reality that a virus with an R0 of 7 with an incubation of 3 days would lead to millions infected in a matter of weeks.

UNLESS PEOPLE CHANGED THEIR BEHAVIOUR AND REDUCED THE VALUE OF R0.

I already asked this, but I don't think you answered.

First question: do you think that R0 only has one value, or do you recognise that, for example in the UK it's near 1 (hopefully a little below) ?

[Bored chemist]

Your data is wrong.

It's not my data.
It's the data that some scientists in China calculated from the early days of the outbreak.

[Bored chemist]

It's clear the R0 is between 1.4 and 3.28. As Germany, WHO, CDC, China and Sweden,  all have studies to prove.

Stop wasting peoples time

I'm not the one wasting peoples time. You are doing that even though you were asked not to. You are repeating the same mistake.

Please don't waste further time on studies conducted anywhere but Wuhan and the surrounding area- because they can not be relevant to the question of spread through a population which was unaware of the risk.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

It's clear the R0 is between 1.4 and 3.28. As Germany, WHO, CDC, China and Sweden,  all have studies to prove.

Stop wasting peoples time

I'm not the one wasting peoples time. You are doing that even though you were asked not to. You are repeating the same mistake.

Please don't waste further time on studies conducted anywhere but Wuhan and the surrounding area- because they can not be relevant to the question of spread through a population which was unaware of the risk.

Which until Jan 20th 2020 was the majority of the population. Grow up

[Jolly2 (OP)]

With the first data set.

64 people in April
128 mid may
256 at the end of may
512 mid june
1024 at the end of June(when the infection in the old peoples home happened)

2048 mid July
4096 at the end of July

8192 mid August.(but not only in America, where ever the infected people travelled its 8192 across the world)

16,384 end of August-world wide total
32,768 mid September
65,000 end of September
131,072 mid October
262.144 end of October world wide when China noticed people with respiratory infections
524,288 mid November
1,048,576 hits one million world wide total infections at the end of November.
2,097,152 mid December.
4,194,304 new year 2020 world wide infected total.

Patient 0 is in March 2019.

.......

With the secound data set.

Weekly incubation period and an R.0 of 3.

Past infections .  current infections

Patient 0
Week 1.  1              ,   3
Week 2   3              ,   9
Week 3   9              ,  27
Week 4   27            ,  81
Week 5   81            ,  243
Week 6 243            ,  729
Week 7  729           , 2,187
Week 8 2,187         , 6,561
Week 9 6,561         , 19,683
Week 10 19,683     , 59,049
Week 11 59,049     , 177,147
Week 12 177,147   , 531,441
Week 13 531,441   , 1,594,323
Week 14 1,594,323 , 4,782,969

After one month from patient 0

You have between 30 to 80 people infected. With patient 0 in mid September.

The Wuhan games are at this time

 Wuhan 2019, was held from October 18–27, 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China.

There were just under 10,000 athletes taking part in the games.
That's not including people that watched them, or officials involved in referring the games.

I cant find actual numbers for total people present but we could easily assume a few thousand more, watching and refereeing.

There are claims by many athletes that they got sick during the games.

With an R0 3 and a week incubation period. Those infected at the games would then each travel to their home countries afterwards.

There is this story about French soldiers returning sick from wuhan.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/french-army-returned-wuhan-military-21988912

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8291755/Did-European-athletes-catch-coronavirus-competing-World-Military-Games-Wuhan-OCTOBER.html

The second data set certianly matches with the wuhan games as the source.
.........

And with the third data set

Combine
Weekly incubation period and an R.0 of 3.
And
Fortnightly incubation with an R0 of 1.7, I'll round up.

Past infections .  current infections

Patient 0
Week 1.  1              ,   3
Week 3   3              ,   5
Week 4   5              ,  15
Week 6   15            ,  26
Week 7   26            ,  78
Week 9   78            ,  133
Week 10 133          ,  399
Week 12 399          ,  678
Week 13 678          ,  2,035
Week 15 2,035       ,  3,460
Week 16 3,460       ,  10,378
Week 18 10,378     ,   17,643
Week 19  17,643    ,  52,928
Week 21 52,928     ,  89,977
Week 22 89,977     , 269,932
Week 24 269,932   , 458,884
Week 25 458,884    , 1,376,651
Week 27 1,376,651 , 2,340,307
Week 28 2,340,307 , 7,020,919


Ok so that's  over 4 million  infections in 6 and half months from patient 0.

 patient 0 is in mid July. When fort Detrick was closed due to leaks


.......

On and the chemist idea.
R0 7 3 day incubation with

4 million cases in under a month.

And patent 0 being at the end of January 2020 after China declared an outbreak of covid.

[Bored chemist]

Which until Jan 20th 2020 was the majority of the population.

And that's why we have to use data from before Jan 2020 to calculate R0
And that is why we have to use the data from the early days in  Wuhan.

So why don't you do that?

[Bored chemist]

Also, you keep forgetting to answer this rather important question.

There are claims by many athletes that they got sick during the games.

Is there real any evidence that any of them got covid, or is this just irrelevant padding?

[Jolly2 (OP)]

Which until Jan 20th 2020 was the majority of the population.

And that's why we have to use data from before Jan 2020 to calculate R0
And that is why we have to use the data from the early days in  Wuhan.

So why don't you do that?

I am. You are not.

Just looking at the mortality rate, shows your suggestion of an R0 7 rediculas. You would see 1000s of deaths after the first month.

Between Oct and Jan China recorded 2

[Bored chemist]

You would see 1000s of deaths after the first month.

Why do you tell that lie?

Is it because you don't know the answer to this?

I already asked this, but I don't think you answered.
Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 13:56:27
First question: do you think that R0 only has one value, or do you recognise that, for example in the UK it's near 1 (hopefully a little below) ?

[Bored chemist]

your suggestion of an R0 7 rediculas

It still isn't mine

Your data is wrong.

It's not my data.
It's the data that some scientists in China calculated from the early days of the outbreak.

[Jolly2 (OP)]

your suggestion of an R0 7 rediculas

It still isn't mine

You're  defending it.

Your data is wrong.

It's not my data.
It's the data that some scientists in China calculated from the early days of the outbreak.

[/quote]

January 11: China recorded its first coronavirus death. Chinese researchers also published the virus' genetic sequence.

By March world wide they had recorded 20,000.

Go away and stop trolling.

Ro7 with an incubation period of 3 days starting in October would have lead to hundreds of thousands of deaths by January.

As I said grow up.