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That CAN'T be true! / Re: Earthquakes and Presidents
« on: 07/08/2024 19:40:06 »
What's different about earthquakes and elections? One fairly obvious difference is that elections, at least in the USA, are held on a regular 4-year cycle.
Earthquakes don't do that, so I think it's safe to say the theory of presidential predictions is a simplified version of the earthquake prediction version. With a fixed cycle it's much easier to "distill" the factors with the greatest influence on the outcome and test the theory against historical results.
That last piece, the historical results, are less statistically meaningful also with earthquakes, because of the lack of longterm, consistently gathered data.
Earthquakes don't do that, so I think it's safe to say the theory of presidential predictions is a simplified version of the earthquake prediction version. With a fixed cycle it's much easier to "distill" the factors with the greatest influence on the outcome and test the theory against historical results.
That last piece, the historical results, are less statistically meaningful also with earthquakes, because of the lack of longterm, consistently gathered data.