Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2017 07:41:27
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/09/2017 06:36:55
For a start, let's list down common goals people have in their lives, and then analyze them by summarizing their strength, limitations, and underlying assumptions. The candidate(s) for a universal utopia may then be built by combining some of those goals, trimming/pushing their limitations, and scrutinizing their underlying assumptions.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/09/2017 07:47:36
Other answers I found include being rich, getting some professional positions, having a family, living a healthy life. Others gave individualistic goals, such us giving/doing something to their community (village, city, tribe, nation, world, humanity). Others gave more religious answers, such as obeying particular God, going to heaven in afterlife, defending their God's religion, etc.
There are also mundane goals such as "living for today", seek for pleasure or pursuing for happiness. There are also interesting goal such as learning and finding the meaning or purpose of life itself.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/11/2017 12:06:15
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2018 08:45:35
Plans work based on assumption that law of causality applies, otherwise, if everything happens at random, then there would be no point in making plans.
Post by: guest39538 on 04/06/2018 10:10:29
A universal utopia, if there is one, would be classified as a meme. And just like any other memes, it will compete for its existence in memory space, whether in people's minds or computer's storage devices.
My utopia would have to be based on objective reasoning. It would also be considered for everyone rather than selfishly for myself.
In an ideal universe, there would be no motion other than that of ourselves or other species. Obviously this removes any concern about cosmic collisions.
Secondly the weather experience would not be random, it would be scheduled and conditions would never be too extreme, there would be a fine balance.
Also I would have a steady state entropy where the balance always remained an equilibrium.
Food and water made by replicators, robots doing all the manual work so ourselves could just do our hobbies or things that are pleasurable.
As for personal goals, I go by each day and go with the flow . I go with whats right and best for me and those I care for.
Survival is the prime goal of any species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2018 12:37:35
Thanks for joining this discussion. I agree with some of your points, but as suggested in the title, I'm interested in finding out goals that can be applied universally.A universal utopia, if there is one, would be classified as a meme. And just like any other memes, it will compete for its existence in memory space, whether in people's minds or computer's storage devices.
My utopia would have to be based on objective reasoning. It would also be considered for everyone rather than selfishly for myself.
In an ideal universe, there would be no motion other than that of ourselves or other species. Obviously this removes any concern about cosmic collisions.
Secondly the weather experience would not be random, it would be scheduled and conditions would never be too extreme, there would be a fine balance.
Also I would have a steady state entropy where the balance always remained an equilibrium.
Food and water made by replicators, robots doing all the manual work so ourselves could just do our hobbies or things that are pleasurable.
As for personal goals, I go by each day and go with the flow . I go with whats right and best for me and those I care for.
Survival is the prime goal of any species.
That universal goals should not be limited by a species, because they wouldn't be applicable before the species even existed, nor after the species extinct or evolved into other species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2018 12:59:47
If this universal goal exist, then all organisms will try to achieve it. Conscious organisms will make plans to achieve it, because the plan can increase the probability to achieve target.Another basic assumption which is necessary to get to a universal goal is that there is an objective reality. Otherwise there would be no cooperation among units of a system that tries to achieve that goal.
Plans work based on assumption that law of causality applies, otherwise, if everything happens at random, then there would be no point in making plans.
Perhaps some of you think that those two basic assumptions are so obvious as not to seem worth stating, but without them, I don't think we can go forward discussing this topic any further.
This reminds me of a Bertrand Russell quote
Quote
The point of philosophy is to start with something so simple as not to seem worth stating, and to end with something so paradoxical that no one will believe it.
Bertrand Russell
(https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/bertrand_russell_107179)
We'll see if those basic assumptions will lead us to a paradox.
Post by: guest39538 on 04/06/2018 13:21:02
Thanks for joining this discussion. I agree with some of your points, but as suggested in the title, I'm interested in finding out goals that can be applied universally.
That universal goals should not be limited by a species, because they wouldn't be applicable before the species even existed, nor after the species extinct or evolved into other species.
Thank you , I guess I did not quite understand your post, now I do.
Universal goals
1) A universal alliance and laws
2) To share knowledge
3) For all to be equal
4) Universal maintenance standards
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/06/2018 02:47:00
Thank you , I guess I did not quite understand your post, now I do.Can you elaborate more? Is there priority among them?
Universal goals
1) A universal alliance and laws
2) To share knowledge
3) For all to be equal
4) Universal maintenance standards
Perhaps something to support your assertions above? For example, why do we have to share knowledge? what if we don't?
Why do we have to be equal? What is the subject of this equality?
etc
Post by: guest39538 on 05/06/2018 10:34:06
I think I already prioritised the order in my previous post. Let us look at the finer details of the list in order.Thank you , I guess I did not quite understand your post, now I do.Can you elaborate more? Is there priority among them?
Universal goals
1) A universal alliance and laws
2) To share knowledge
3) For all to be equal
4) Universal maintenance standards
Perhaps something to support your assertions above? For example, why do we have to share knowledge? what if we don't?
Why do we have to be equal? What is the subject of this equality?
etc
1) A universal alliance and laws
Number one is for simplicity, if we ever discovered intelligent life out there, our prime directive will be firstly to establish a communications ''link''. We would establish communication by getting over the possible language barrier and befriend our new found friends. We would then have to establish certain ''laws'' for our alliance. Pretty standard procedure I would imagine.
2) To share knowledge
What goes around comes around, to share knowledge and technology stops unequal dictatorship. The power is divided equally rather than a specific continent for example.
3)For all to be equal
Fairness is next to kindness, the green eyed monster cannot exist if things are equal. Inequality is a form of legalised slavery , the poor picking up the scraps .
4) Universal maintenance standards
Speaks for itself really
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2018 08:18:59
What makes point#1 more important than point#2? etc.
I think I already prioritised the order in my previous post. Let us look at the finer details of the list in order.
1) A universal alliance and laws
Number one is for simplicity, if we ever discovered intelligent life out there, our prime directive will be firstly to establish a communications ''link''. We would establish communication by getting over the possible language barrier and befriend our new found friends. We would then have to establish certain ''laws'' for our alliance. Pretty standard procedure I would imagine.
2) To share knowledge
What goes around comes around, to share knowledge and technology stops unequal dictatorship. The power is divided equally rather than a specific continent for example.
3)For all to be equal
Fairness is next to kindness, the green eyed monster cannot exist if things are equal. Inequality is a form of legalised slavery , the poor picking up the scraps .
4) Universal maintenance standards
Speaks for itself really
What is the goal of the alliance and laws? We need to distinct the goal and the method to achieve the goal (may be we can call it intermediate goal).
Why do we have to share knowledge? why do we have to stop unequal dictatorship? why do we have to be fair? equal? why must we have maintenance standard? that would be a more fundamental goal.
Post by: guest39538 on 06/06/2018 09:14:08
The order is specific for first contact and the advancement of ''our'' friendship. The point of an alliance is because , WAR , what is it good for? absolutely nothing . To share knowledge would not be a problem because ''we'' would never be in war against each other. Two friends going fishing sharing tips. Why have inequality? Time is equalWhat makes point#1 more important than point#2? etc.
I think I already prioritised the order in my previous post. Let us look at the finer details of the list in order.
1) A universal alliance and laws
Number one is for simplicity, if we ever discovered intelligent life out there, our prime directive will be firstly to establish a communications ''link''. We would establish communication by getting over the possible language barrier and befriend our new found friends. We would then have to establish certain ''laws'' for our alliance. Pretty standard procedure I would imagine.
2) To share knowledge
What goes around comes around, to share knowledge and technology stops unequal dictatorship. The power is divided equally rather than a specific continent for example.
3)For all to be equal
Fairness is next to kindness, the green eyed monster cannot exist if things are equal. Inequality is a form of legalised slavery , the poor picking up the scraps .
4) Universal maintenance standards
Speaks for itself really
What is the goal of the alliance and laws? We need to distinct the goal and the method to achieve the goal (may be we can call it intermediate goal).
Why do we have to share knowledge? why do we have to stop unequal dictatorship? why do we have to be fair? equal? why must we have maintenance standard? that would be a more fundamental goal.
As for number 4, care about our environment and it will care for us, simple logic.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2018 17:56:54
good side of war : reduce population that consume limited resources. Have you seen Thanos?
The order is specific for first contact and the advancement of ''our'' friendship. The point of an alliance is because , WAR , what is it good for? absolutely nothing . To share knowledge would not be a problem because ''we'' would never be in war against each other. Two friends going fishing sharing tips. Why have inequality? Time is equal
As for number 4, care about our environment and it will care for us, simple logic.
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/06/2018 18:03:41
Were you planning to add something that looks a bit like science later or something?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2018 18:07:24
restating those basic assumptions in fewer words:If this universal goal exist, then all organisms will try to achieve it. Conscious organisms will make plans to achieve it, because the plan can increase the probability to achieve target.Another basic assumption which is necessary to get to a universal goal is that there is an objective reality. Otherwise there would be no cooperation among units of a system that tries to achieve that goal.
Plans work based on assumption that law of causality applies, otherwise, if everything happens at random, then there would be no point in making plans.
Perhaps some of you think that those two basic assumptions are so obvious as not to seem worth stating, but without them, I don't think we can go forward discussing this topic any further.
This reminds me of a Bertrand Russell quoteQuoteThe point of philosophy is to start with something so simple as not to seem worth stating, and to end with something so paradoxical that no one will believe it.
Bertrand Russell
(https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/bertrand_russell_107179)
We'll see if those basic assumptions will lead us to a paradox.
1. There is universe.
2. There are universal laws.
As for causality, it is necessary to assume that time exists. This entails that there are changes in things in the universe. Some are fast, some are slow.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2018 18:11:25
You seem to have mistaken this site for TheNakedWafflers.comThis is more about philosophy, which is the precursor to science.
Were you planning to add something that looks a bit like science later or something?
At some point I'll explain why we need to do science in the first place, on philosophical ground. So bear with me.
Spoiler: show
Post by: guest39538 on 06/06/2018 22:58:19
You said universal utopia ,therefore over population would move to an empty planet. No need to kill them off .good side of war : reduce population that consume limited resources. Have you seen Thanos?
The order is specific for first contact and the advancement of ''our'' friendship. The point of an alliance is because , WAR , what is it good for? absolutely nothing . To share knowledge would not be a problem because ''we'' would never be in war against each other. Two friends going fishing sharing tips. Why have inequality? Time is equal
As for number 4, care about our environment and it will care for us, simple logic.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2018 23:22:27
I just pointed out a counter example to your assertion. War is inevitable when a population doesn't manage their use of available resource to the point of overusage. Except, we can generate new resources at higher rate than population growth. Even if war doesn't happen, some of the population will die anyway due to lack of resources.You said universal utopia ,therefore over population would move to an empty planet. No need to kill them off .good side of war : reduce population that consume limited resources. Have you seen Thanos?
The order is specific for first contact and the advancement of ''our'' friendship. The point of an alliance is because , WAR , what is it good for? absolutely nothing . To share knowledge would not be a problem because ''we'' would never be in war against each other. Two friends going fishing sharing tips. Why have inequality? Time is equal
As for number 4, care about our environment and it will care for us, simple logic.
Btw, what good is fishing for?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/06/2018 14:04:09
Then I'll use that result to justify (or dismiss) preferences or intermediate goals as mentioned in previous posts, based on their projected effects they have to the achievement of ultimate goal.
Post by: guest39538 on 07/06/2018 14:23:28
But isn't what you are discussing more based on planetary means of support rather that Universally supported?
I just pointed out a counter example to your assertion. War is inevitable when a population doesn't manage their use of available resource to the point of overusage. Except, we can generate new resources at higher rate than population growth. Even if war doesn't happen, some of the population will die anyway due to lack of resources.
Btw, what good is fishing for?
Hence your title says one thing, but then in the next breath you dismiss your title so then your notions are based with boundaries/limitations.
In my opinion your ''model'' and good piece of science, needs an A and B version to apply for both situations. The obvious is a box can only get so full, where if there is lots of empty boxes that is a different situation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/06/2018 15:13:54
restating those basic assumptions in fewer words:A lot of changes seem to be chaotic, such as explosions, collisions, random mutations. Though some changes may seem to be orderly/repetitive, such as planetary orbits, seasons, tides, etc., but in the long run, they seem to be chaotic as well.
1. There is universe.
2. There are universal laws.
As for causality, it is necessary to assume that time exists. This entails that there are changes in things in the universe. Some are fast, some are slow.
Lifeless things tend to break down, which means that their configuration change to become less ordered.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/06/2018 15:27:32
But isn't what you are discussing more based on planetary means of support rather that Universally supported?Hence your title says one thing, but then in the next breath you dismiss your title so then your notions are based with boundaries/limitations. In my opinion your ''model'' and good piece of science, needs an A and B version to apply for both situations. The obvious is a box can only get so full, where if there is lots of empty boxes that is a different situation.I just wanted to keep in touch with reality. Science has shown that there exist abundant resources in the universe, but they are mostly unreachable (yet). Hence population growth should be managed according to reachable resources at that moment.
Post by: guest39538 on 07/06/2018 15:40:15
Hence population growth should be managed according to reachable resources at that moment.That is true, the world should incur a population growth limit , where a family consists of two parents and one child. This 'order'' will effectively decrease the population on death to birth ratio.
2+1=3
3 - 2 = 1
We lose two gain one. Nobody has to be killed off .
1 year of no births , 131.4 million births per year
reduces the population at 55.3 million people die each year + 131.4 million births per year
In a 5 year ''plan''
276.5 million reduction if we had a no baby rule enforced .
Reverse engineering as such .
I have ''knocked'' you up a chart.
growth chart.jpg (31.52 kB . 848x652 - viewed 9996 times)Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2018 13:13:19
Lifeless things tend to break down, which means that their configuration change to become less ordered.The breakdowns are usually caused by changes in the environment.
Their configuration will have better chance to survive if they can duplicate/self replicate, i.e. induce their environment to replicate their configuration, hence creating backups. So even if the original copy does break down, some of its duplicates might survive.
Post by: guest39538 on 08/06/2018 13:59:16
Interesting, that is a concept that grabs attention. Would the surviving duplicates still be aware and have the same memory as their previous version?Lifeless things tend to break down, which means that their configuration change to become less ordered.The breakdowns are usually caused by changes in the environment.
Their configuration will have better chance to survive if they can duplicate/self replicate, i.e. induce their environment to replicate their configuration, hence creating backups. So even if the original copy does break down, some of its duplicates might survive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2018 15:41:58
Quote
Interesting, that is a concept that grabs attention. Would the surviving duplicates still be aware and have the same memory as their previous version?awareness and memory will come later in evolutionary process. I was talking about the earlier phase of it.
Post by: guest39538 on 08/06/2018 16:09:53
QuoteInteresting, that is a concept that grabs attention. Would the surviving duplicates still be aware and have the same memory as their previous version?awareness and memory will come later in evolutionary process. I was talking about the earlier phase of it.
Sort of reverse evolution to restart evolution ?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2018 16:17:33
The breakdowns are usually caused by changes in the environment.Some copies may be disintegrated beyond recognition, but some other may get lucky changes which make them more resistant to harmful environment, or get better at replication.
Their configuration will have better chance to survive if they can duplicate/self replicate, i.e. induce their environment to replicate their configuration, hence creating backups. So even if the original copy does break down, some of its duplicates might survive.
Post by: guest39538 on 08/06/2018 16:24:34
Ouch , I have never been lucky , I might as well get digging an hole to disintegrate in. :oThe breakdowns are usually caused by changes in the environment.Some copies may be disintegrated beyond recognition, but some other may get lucky changes which make them more resistant to harmful environment, or get better at replication.
Their configuration will have better chance to survive if they can duplicate/self replicate, i.e. induce their environment to replicate their configuration, hence creating backups. So even if the original copy does break down, some of its duplicates might survive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2018 17:35:54
Quote
Sort of reverse evolution to restart evolution ?No. I'm just doing a thought experiment: what would logically follow if my basic assumptions in previous post are actually true.
Some additional assumptions may be made along the way. Some may be implicit, hence taken for granted. I'll try to identify them all by making them more explicit.
Post by: guest39538 on 08/06/2018 17:38:07
Of course it is a thought experiment, I was considering your thought in my answer. An interesting hypothetical situation.QuoteSort of reverse evolution to restart evolution ?No. I'm just doing a thought experiment: what would logically follow if my basic assumptions in previous post are actually true.
Some additional assumptions may be made along the way. Some may be implicit, hence taken for granted. I'll try to identify them all by making them more explicit.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2018 23:01:33
Quote
Some copies may be disintegrated beyond recognition, but some other may get lucky changes which make them more resistant to harmful environment, or get better at replication.when there are more copies of those replicating things, they become part of the environment of each other. They will compete against each other for resources to create more copies of themselves.
Competition against modified copy of themselves may produce better version of them. Just look at alpha zero.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2018 05:42:37
What I meant by priorities is: Your highest priority is the last thing you are willing to sacrifice in order to get other things in the scope of discussed situation.What makes point#1 more important than point#2? etc.
I think I already prioritised the order in my previous post. Let us look at the finer details of the list in order.
1) A universal alliance and laws
Number one is for simplicity, if we ever discovered intelligent life out there, our prime directive will be firstly to establish a communications ''link''. We would establish communication by getting over the possible language barrier and befriend our new found friends. We would then have to establish certain ''laws'' for our alliance. Pretty standard procedure I would imagine.
2) To share knowledge
What goes around comes around, to share knowledge and technology stops unequal dictatorship. The power is divided equally rather than a specific continent for example.
3)For all to be equal
Fairness is next to kindness, the green eyed monster cannot exist if things are equal. Inequality is a form of legalised slavery , the poor picking up the scraps .
4) Universal maintenance standards
Speaks for itself really
What is the goal of the alliance and laws? We need to distinct the goal and the method to achieve the goal (may be we can call it intermediate goal).
Why do we have to share knowledge? why do we have to stop unequal dictatorship? why do we have to be fair? equal? why must we have maintenance standard? that would be a more fundamental goal.
Quote from: Google dictionary
priorityLet's take a chess game for an example. The priorities, in my opinion (sorted from highest) :
/prʌɪˈɒrɪti/
noun
the fact or condition of being regarded or treated as more important than others.
"the safety of the country takes priority over any other matter"
synonyms: prime concern, first concern, most important consideration, most pressing matter, matter of greatest importance, primary issue More
"pioneering new forms of surgery should be a priority for the National Health Service"
•precedence, greater importance, preference, precedency, pre-eminence, first/highest place, predominance, primacy, the lead, weighting, weight
"the government's commitment to give priority to primary education"
•a thing that is regarded as more important than others.
plural noun: priorities
"housework didn't figure high on her list of priorities"
1. Checkmate the opponent's king.
2. Prevent checkmate on own king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Try to get #1. If it's impossible, try to get #2 (draw). If it's also impossible, try to get #3 by resigning.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2018 11:22:33
If the game is just a tool to have fun, then winning it is no longer the highest priority.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2018 16:15:18
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2018 18:03:24
Quote
when there are more copies of those replicating things, they become part of the environment of each other. They will compete against each other for resources to create more copies of themselves.This scenario relies on implicit assumption that environmental changes never get severe enough to wipe out all copies of those self replicating structural things. For brevity, I will call this "self replicating structural things" organism from now on. Feel free to suggest a better name.
Competition against modified copy of themselves may produce better version of them. Just look at alpha zero.
Post by: guest39538 on 09/06/2018 18:20:24
Sort of meeting yourself right?QuoteSome copies may be disintegrated beyond recognition, but some other may get lucky changes which make them more resistant to harmful environment, or get better at replication.when there are more copies of those replicating things, they become part of the environment of each other. They will compete against each other for resources to create more copies of themselves.
Competition against modified copy of themselves may produce better version of them. Just look at alpha zero.
Myself would agree we are both as smart as each other.
Post by: guest39538 on 09/06/2018 18:22:07
Well if we can build a house we could build a planet given the time. Maybe there is a way to build like a botanical garden that is isolated .Quotewhen there are more copies of those replicating things, they become part of the environment of each other. They will compete against each other for resources to create more copies of themselves.This scenario relies on implicit assumption that environmental changes never get severe enough to wipe out all copies of those structural things.
Competition against modified copy of themselves may produce better version of them. Just look at alpha zero.
Post by: guest39538 on 09/06/2018 18:24:15
Let's take a chess game for an example. The priorities, in my opinion (sorted from highest) :Option 4, stalemate.
1. Checkmate the opponent's king.
2. Prevent checkmate on own king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Try to get #1. If it's impossible, try to get #2 (draw). If it's also impossible, try to get #3 by resigning.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/06/2018 22:45:49
Quote
This scenario relies on implicit assumption that environmental changes never get severe enough to wipe out all copies of those self replicating structural things. For brevity, I will call this "self replicating structural things" organism from now on. Feel free to suggest a better name.When all resources nearby have been depleted by copies of early organism, replicating ability doesn't work anymore. Until some copies develop ability to forcefully break down their relatives back into raw materials and use them to replicate themselves. Those were the first predators.
Necessary resources to make replicas may be scattered around a large area, which makes it laborious to collect them. One advantage of being a predator is that this activity can be skipped.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/06/2018 04:39:19
I think stalemate is included in #2.Let's take a chess game for an example. The priorities, in my opinion (sorted from highest) :Option 4, stalemate.
1. Checkmate the opponent's king.
2. Prevent checkmate on own king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Try to get #1. If it's impossible, try to get #2 (draw). If it's also impossible, try to get #3 by resigning.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/06/2018 12:24:11
Quote
When all resources nearby have been depleted by copies of early organism, replicating ability doesn't work anymore. Until some copies develop ability to forcefully break down their relatives back into raw materials and use them to replicate themselves. Those were the first predators.This creates arms race between predator and prey. There are new competitions, not only between predator and prey, but also among predators and among preys.
The arms race boosts development of weapon and armor, and some other features that give advantages, such as locomotion, sensory ability, responsiveness.
Post by: guest39538 on 11/06/2018 21:44:42
Why can't predator and prey get along ?QuoteWhen all resources nearby have been depleted by copies of early organism, replicating ability doesn't work anymore. Until some copies develop ability to forcefully break down their relatives back into raw materials and use them to replicate themselves. Those were the first predators.This creates arms race between predator and prey.
Is it just nature?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/06/2018 10:28:23
Why can't predator and prey get along ?predators who consume prey tend to survive better then who don't.
Is it just nature?
In the game of life, the reward is survival. The punishment is extinction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/06/2018 11:30:56
Beside predatory behavior, organisms also develops in other direction, which is cooperation. It's true that there is strength in number.QuoteWhen all resources nearby have been depleted by copies of early organism, replicating ability doesn't work anymore. Until some copies develop ability to forcefully break down their relatives back into raw materials and use them to replicate themselves. Those were the first predators.This creates arms race between predator and prey. There are new competitions, not only between predator and prey, but also among predators and among preys.
The arms race boosts development of weapon and armor, and some other features that give advantages, such as locomotion, sensory ability, responsiveness.
The simplest form of cooperation can be seen when organisms with same genetic formation get together in the same place to form a colony. Some advantage from this behavior is that ratio of surface area per unit mass is decreased, which may lead to reduced threat and heat loss.
An individu of multicellular organisms is basically a colony of genetically identical cells with specific functions.
Post by: guest39538 on 13/06/2018 16:02:30
Yes there is strength in numbers, 1+1=2 but also there is weakness in numbers because 1-1 = 0Beside predatory behavior, organisms also develops in other direction, which is cooperation. It's true that there is strength in number.QuoteWhen all resources nearby have been depleted by copies of early organism, replicating ability doesn't work anymore. Until some copies develop ability to forcefully break down their relatives back into raw materials and use them to replicate themselves. Those were the first predators.This creates arms race between predator and prey. There are new competitions, not only between predator and prey, but also among predators and among preys.
The arms race boosts development of weapon and armor, and some other features that give advantages, such as locomotion, sensory ability, responsiveness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/06/2018 15:33:02
The simplest form of cooperation can be seen when organisms with same genetic formation get together in the same place to form a colony. Some advantage from this behavior is that ratio of surface area per unit mass is decreased, which may lead to reduced threat and heat loss.The next step for cooperating more effectively is by splitting duties among colony members. Some responsible for defense, some for digesting food, etc. Though each cell are genetically identical, they can develop differently due to Gene activation by their surrounding.
This requires longer and more complex genetic materials in each organism's cell.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 03:39:33
This requires longer and more complex genetic materials in each organism's cell.Longer and more complex code means harder to replicate correctly. Assuming that error rate is constant, having more data means more error.
At some point, it would be beneficial to have redundancy for those code storage, where the advantage for having a duplicate outweight the cost for additional resources to make it.
In computer world, we can see it in RAID technology. While in biology, we found it in diploid and polyploid organisms.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 06:44:08
The next step for cooperating more effectively is by splitting duties among colony members. Some responsible for defense, some for digesting food, etc.Different environmental condition may lead to diverging ways of life, which require different genetic structure.
Cooperation may also happen between organisms with different genetic structure.
One of earliest known example is organelles in eukaryotic cells which is thought as result of endosymbiotic relationship.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 08:20:34
Environmental changes and arms race among and between predators and preys pushed organisms to be better at what they do for a living.This requires longer and more complex genetic materials in each organism's cell.Longer and more complex code means harder to replicate correctly. Assuming that error rate is constant, having more data means more error.
At some point, it would be beneficial to have redundancy for those code storage, where the advantage for having a duplicate outweight the cost for additional resources to make it.
In computer world, we can see it in RAID technology. While in biology, we found it in diploid and polyploid organisms.
Assuming that random mutation creates more harmful effect than beneficial ones, exchanging genetic materials may improve distribution of those beneficial Gene. It allows good genes acquired by different individual organisms to be accumulated in each cell of their offsprings.
This was the start of sexual reproduction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 11:21:32
Assuming that random mutation creates more harmful effect than beneficial ones, exchanging genetic materials may improve distribution of those beneficial Gene. It allows good genes acquired by different individual organisms to be accumulated in each cell of their offsprings.In arms race situation, slightly different changes may result in life and death situation. Slightly slower or slightly weaker may cost one's life. This amplifies the push to evolve to be the fittest.
Post by: guest39538 on 15/06/2018 11:28:43
Environmental changes and arms race among and between predators and preys pushed organisms to be better at what they do for a living.Incentive is motivation .
Post by: guest39538 on 15/06/2018 11:29:27
Time contraction is a must.Assuming that random mutation creates more harmful effect than beneficial ones, exchanging genetic materials may improve distribution of those beneficial Gene. It allows good genes acquired by different individual organisms to be accumulated in each cell of their offsprings.In arms race situation, slightly different changes may result in life and death situation. Slightly slower or slightly weaker may cause one's life. This amplifies the push to evolve to be the fittest.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 15:22:47
In arms race situation, slightly different changes may result in life and death situation. Slightly slower or slightly weaker may cost one's life. This amplifies the push to evolve to be the fittest.Just like any other systems, organisms also consist of inputs, process, and output. They collect information from their environment, process it in internal system, and then do actions based on its output.
Post by: guest39538 on 15/06/2018 18:14:38
A bit like an internet bot would process the words then give a response.In arms race situation, slightly different changes may result in life and death situation. Slightly slower or slightly weaker may cost one's life. This amplifies the push to evolve to be the fittest.Just like any other systems, organisms also consist of inputs, process, and output. They collect information from their environment, process it in internal system, and then do action based on it's output.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2018 23:45:36
A bit like an internet bot would process the words then give a response.Yes, that's also a system.
For biological systems, the inputs can be chemical compounds, physical property such as temperature, pressure, light. Those inputs are sensed by sensitive part of organisms which convert them into an internal process, usually electrochemical type. After interaction with other internal processes, some actions are done by actuator unit, such as chemical release, electricity, and movements.
Post by: captcass on 16/06/2018 03:25:38
In an ideal universe, there would be no motion other than that of ourselves or other species. Obviously this removes any concern about cosmic collisions.Sounds kinda dull @Thebox. :)
Secondly the weather experience would not be random, it would be scheduled and conditions would never be too extreme, there would be a fine balance.
Also I would have a steady state entropy where the balance always remained an equilibrium.
Post by: Colin2B on 16/06/2018 05:37:52
Sounds kinda dull @Thebox. :)And kinda wrong
Secondly the weather experience would not be random,
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 07:20:52
Those inputs are sensed by sensitive part of organisms which convert them into an internal process, usually electrochemical type. After interaction with other internal processes, some actions are done by actuator unit, such as chemical release, electricity, and movements.In order to survive, organisms must have basic functions, I.e. finding food, avoid danger, reproduce. For sexual organisms, finding mates becomes crucial.
So they need the ability to distinguish objects in their surrounding and categorize them, so they can choose appropriate actions.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 15:30:26
In what way dull? What the universe is doing is imperative to survival. Why look up at the sky worrying when we should be looking up enjoying?In an ideal universe, there would be no motion other than that of ourselves or other species. Obviously this removes any concern about cosmic collisions.Sounds kinda dull @Thebox. :)
Secondly the weather experience would not be random, it would be scheduled and conditions would never be too extreme, there would be a fine balance.
Also I would have a steady state entropy where the balance always remained an equilibrium.
In life we find our own entertainment, the universal worry is not entertaining and a steady state universe would allow a sort of heavenly bliss where the only thing we are concentrating on is our own lives . The surroundings a script that does need to alter but can be played in by humans. Consider the Zoo theory , it is all good as long as the zoo keepers look after us when needed. What happens outside of the zoo is irrelevant, we would have the ultimate safety from the universal elements inside the zoo.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 15:33:07
So they need the ability to distinguish objects in their surrounding and categorize them, so they can choose appropriate actions.Some organisms develop pain and pleasure system to tell if some circumstances are good or bad for their survival. They try to avoid pain and seek pleasure, which is basically making assumptions that pain is bad while pleasure is good.
Though there are times it could be a mistake to seek pleasure and avoid pain, mostly this rule of thumb brings overall benefits to the organisms.
Avoiding pain can prevent organisms from suffering further damage which may threat their lives. While seeking pleasure can help them to get basic needs to survive, such as food and sex.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 15:36:10
We can still have wind, consider your room now, there is only you really moving in it. The room is like a picture, we can move freely in the picture. Hardly different to now except we could plan our days better because we would know 100% when sunny days happen.Sounds kinda dull @Thebox. :)And kinda wrongSecondly the weather experience would not be random,
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 15:37:54
Are you using google translate?So they need the ability to distinguish objects in their surrounding and categorize them, so they can choose appropriate actions.Some organisms develop pain and pleasure system to tell if some circumstances are good or bad for their survival. They try to avoid pain and seek to pleasure, basically making assumptions that pain is bad while pleasure is good.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 18:52:49
Are you using google translate?No. If you find my posts sound strange, perhaps because English is not my native language. Besides, I often use mobile device to type, with occasional connection problem. So I had to type and post quickly to save my core messages. Only then I reviewed and made corrections. That's why you can see that my posts often changed.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 19:06:40
Our bodies have a natural sense of feeling pain. This is one of our survival mechanisms. Feeling ''pain'' in the sense of loss is a strange emotion by us compared to feeling pain. It is natural in humans to want to eat, if left hungry, humans will eat each other to survive. Sex is over rated and should be considered only in the process of creating families. In reality a couple can enjoy each other, physical contact or other without having the sex part Nowadays obvious we can use protection so it is not such a big issue when it comes to population issues.So they need the ability to distinguish objects in their surrounding and categorize them, so they can choose appropriate actions.Some organisms develop pain and pleasure system to tell if some circumstances are good or bad for their survival. They try to avoid pain and seek pleasure, which is basically making assumptions that pain is bad while pleasure is good.
Though there are times it could be a mistake to seek pleasure and avoid pain, mostly this rule of thumb brings overall benefits to the organisms.
Avoiding pain can prevent organisms from suffering further damage which may threat their lives. While seeking pleasure can help them to get basic needs to survive, such as food and sex.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 22:50:03
Avoiding pain can prevent organisms from suffering further damage which may threat their lives. While seeking pleasure can help them to get basic needs to survive, such as food and sex.To avoid pain experienced in the past as well as repeating pleasure, those organisms need some kind of memory storage. In biological systems, this is part of nervous system.
What is stored is basically a reconstruction of past experiences. In this reconstruction, it is necessary to create model of situations sensed by sensory system.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 23:01:42
I thought memory was more related to magnetic storage?Avoiding pain can prevent organisms from suffering further damage which may threat their lives. While seeking pleasure can help them to get basic needs to survive, such as food and sex.To avoid pain experienced in the past as well as repeating pleasure, those organisms need some kind of memory storage. In biological systems, this is part of nervous system.
What is stored is basically a reconstruction of past experiences. In this reconstruction, it is necessary to create model of situations sensed by sensory system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 23:08:50
Our bodies have a natural sense of feeling pain. This is one of our survival mechanisms. Feeling ''pain'' in the sense of loss is a strange emotion by us compared to feeling pain. It is natural in humans to want to eat, if left hungry, humans will eat each other to survive. Sex is over rated and should be considered only in the process of creating families. In reality a couple can enjoy each other, physical contact or other without having the sex part Nowadays obvious we can use protection so it is not such a big issue when it comes to population issues.If we start by analysing the behavior of already very complex system such as humans, we are likely amazed by seemingly illogical things. That's why I started the analysis from simpler systems.
From there it is easier to understand how complex behavior evolved, by scrutinizing their cost and benefits for the system.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 23:25:03
Well interesting piezoelectric impulses can be shocking to a system. I am not sure such a complex system scrutinises their cost or benefit to the system. Does the complex system even understand what price is given ? Evolving is one thing, understanding is another. Don't you agree?Our bodies have a natural sense of feeling pain. This is one of our survival mechanisms. Feeling ''pain'' in the sense of loss is a strange emotion by us compared to feeling pain. It is natural in humans to want to eat, if left hungry, humans will eat each other to survive. Sex is over rated and should be considered only in the process of creating families. In reality a couple can enjoy each other, physical contact or other without having the sex part Nowadays obvious we can use protection so it is not such a big issue when it comes to population issues.If we start by analysing the behavior of already very complex system such as humans, we are likely amazed by seemingly illogical things. That's why I started the analysis from simpler systems.
From there it is easier to understand how complex behavior evolved, by scrutinizing their cost and benefits for the system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 23:26:14
I thought memory was more related to magnetic storage?There are many types of memory storage: mechanical such as punched card or gramophone disc, optical such as CD and DVD, or electrochemical such as biological nervous system.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 23:29:26
The magnetosphere of atoms maybe? Is it possible the atoms of our bodies or our brains magnetic field stores information?I thought memory was more related to magnetic storage?There are many types of memory storage: mechanical such as punched card or gramophone disc, optical such as CD and DVD, or electrochemical such as biological nervous system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 23:32:37
Well interesting piezoelectric impulses can be shocking to a system. I am not sure such a complex system scrutinises their cost or benefit to the system. Does the complex system even understand what price is given ? Evolving is one thing, understanding is another. Don't you agree?In the next few posts I will discuss what understanding really is.
Spoiler: show
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2018 23:36:38
Is it possible the atoms of our bodies or our brains magnetic field stores information?I think so. But it's not the kind of memory that we usually think of.
Post by: guest39538 on 16/06/2018 23:41:05
But in discussing biological systems is that not discussing our own memory storage?Is it possible the atoms of our bodies or our brains magnetic field stores information?I think so. But it's not the kind of memory that we usually think of.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/06/2018 00:57:17
Environmental changes and arms race among and between predators and preys pushed organisms to be better at what they do for a living.Multicellular organisms with specific function cells aren't practical to reproduce by replicating each fully formed cells. It's better to dedicate some of those cells to specifically function as reproduction organs. Since only some part of parent's cells replicate to produce offsprings, it is necessary that the offsprings start with smaller size than the parents.
Assuming that random mutation creates more harmful effect than beneficial ones, exchanging genetic materials may improve distribution of those beneficial Gene. It allows good genes acquired by different individual organisms to be accumulated in each cell of their offsprings.
This was the start of sexual reproduction.
Some parents' features are not developed yet in the newborns.
Hence it would be beneficial for some parents to take care of their young because it can improve the survival chances of the organism's structure.
Post by: guest39538 on 17/06/2018 01:03:10
Sounds like some complex biology.Environmental changes and arms race among and between predators and preys pushed organisms to be better at what they do for a living.Multicellular organisms with specific function cells aren't practical to reproduce by replicating each fully formed cells. It's better to dedicate some of those cells to specifically function as reproduction organs.
Assuming that random mutation creates more harmful effect than beneficial ones, exchanging genetic materials may improve distribution of those beneficial Gene. It allows good genes acquired by different individual organisms to be accumulated in each cell of their offsprings.
This was the start of sexual reproduction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/06/2018 01:58:31
Sounds like some complex biology.We have started from simplest system and slowly progressed to more complex ones. If you think there are something missing feel free to point it out here.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/06/2018 07:40:31
This was the start of sexual reproduction.AFAIK, all complex multicellular organisms came from ancestors who reproduced sexually. Those who are able to reproduce asexually like parthenogenesis are known to be descendants of sexually reproducing organisms.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/06/2018 10:15:21
Those inputs are sensed by sensitive part of organisms which convert them into an internal process, usually electrochemical type. After interaction with other internal processes, some actions are done by actuator unit, such as chemical release, electricity, and movements.Simplest form of processes connecting input and output are reflexes. They contain only a few neural network layers.
As arms race going on, organisms develop more complex internal process with more layers of neural network system. They start to show instinct.
Post by: guest39538 on 18/06/2018 15:53:28
1 tB = ^2 tA ?Those inputs are sensed by sensitive part of organisms which convert them into an internal process, usually electrochemical type. After interaction with other internal processes, some actions are done by actuator unit, such as chemical release, electricity, and movements.Simplest form of processes connecting input and output are reflexes. They contain only a few neural network layers.
As arms race going on, organisms develop more complex internal process with more layers of neural network system. They start to show instinct.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/06/2018 22:32:35
Simplest form of processes connecting input and output are reflexes. They contain only a few neural network layers.Instinctive behaviors are inherited genetically. In computer world, it is like Read Only Memory.
As arms race going on, organisms develop more complex internal process with more layers of neural network system. They start to show instinct.
It is crucial to have basic survival instincts according to organisms' ways of life. But some environmental changes happen frequently, which need some behavioral adjustment accordingly. It becomes impractical to store all possible required behaviors as instincts as organisms getting more complex.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/06/2018 22:57:56
Instinctive behaviors are inherited genetically. In computer world, it is like Read Only Memory.Some organisms developed additional information storage apart from their genes. Instead, it's part of their neural networks system, which is regarded as organisms' internal process. It's more flexible and can accommodate more quick and frequent changes.
It is crucial to have basic survival instincts according to organisms' ways of life. But some environmental changes happen frequently, which need some behavioral adjustment accordingly. It becomes impractical to store all possible required behaviors as instincts as organisms getting more complex.
It enabled learned behaviors, either from organisms' own experiences or taught by their parents.
Post by: guest39538 on 21/06/2018 12:18:58
Are you talking to yourself?Instinctive behaviors are inherited genetically. In computer world, it is like Read Only Memory.Some organisms developed additional information storage apart from their genes. Instead, it's part of their neural networks system. It's more flexible and can accommodate more quick and frequent changes.
It is crucial to have basic survival instincts according to organisms' ways of life. But some environmental changes happen frequently, which need some behavioral adjustment accordingly. It becomes impractical to store all possible required behaviors as instincts as organisms getting more complex.
It enabled learned behaviors, either from organisms' own experiences or taught by their parents.
Interesting idea though I must admit.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2018 23:31:25
Are you talking to yourself?I have stated my intention for starting this thread in previous posts.
Interesting idea though I must admit.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/06/2018 17:43:23
Some organisms developed additional information storage apart from their genes. Instead, it's part of their neural networks system. It's more flexible and can accommodate more quick and frequent changes.This neural information storage provided a new battlefield for competition of replicating information. Since it controls behavior of organisms, competition among organisms became its proxy war.
It enabled learned behaviors, either from organisms' own experiences or taught by their parents.
Post by: guest39538 on 23/06/2018 17:54:43
In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.Back to your opening post, the goals would be to evolve even further but keeping in touch with their natural environment and the reality that surrounds them.
For to seek knowledge is to evolve, to seek no-thing is nothingness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/06/2018 01:36:25
Back to your opening post, the goals would be to evolve even further but keeping in touch with their natural environment and the reality that surrounds them.Some people argue that natural world view inevitably leads to nihilism, which makes them seek refuge to the supernatural. Here I try to provide an alternative, by using as few as possible assumptions.
For to seek knowledge is to evolve, to seek no-thing is nothingness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/06/2018 23:26:31
This neural information storage provided a new battlefield for competition of replicating information. Since it controls behavior of organisms, competition among organisms became its proxy war.It also enabled organisms to navigate their surrounding, searching for food sources and shelter. Basically, they created spatial model of their environment and memorized it in their brain to be used later for their advantage.
Arms race push some organisms to improve their ability to model their surrounding . Improvements are made in sensory systems in form of higher resolution, depth and clarity. Information processing systems improved as well in form of processing speed, storage capacity, and deeper processing layers. The improvements continue until reaching point of equilibrium, where the benefits equal the cost of used resources.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/07/2018 23:39:26
Some parents' features are not developed yet in the newborns.It's necessary for those parents to have more than one child in each generation, at least on average. Otherwise, the number of their similar copies will be in a steady decline, and eventually lead to extinction.
Hence it would be beneficial for some parents to take care of their young because it can improve the survival chances of the organism's structure.
This means that they will have siblings who grow together, which creates emotional bonds among them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/08/2018 23:16:36
This means that they will have siblings who grow together, which creates emotional bonds among them.closely related individuals can create a group that will help them survive by giving advantages in acquiring resources and avoiding dangers.
But this also creates competition among groups, with the winners will end up having larger number of members.
Large groups require their members to coordinate effectively. First by identifying other members of the group and differentiate them from other groups' members. Next, by effective communication methods so each member can contribute to achieve common goals of the group.
Those things demand larger memory capacity, faster information process, and ability to express individual's intentions, such as by facial expression and vocalization.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/08/2018 11:58:43
Those things demand larger memory capacity, faster information process, and ability to express individual's intentions, such as by facial expression and vocalization.More complex interactions among group members requires more complex expression, hence promoting the creation of language. Resource management requires concept of number and quantity.
Group members also need to resolve conflicts among them, thus pushing them to create social rules and basic morality.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/09/2018 13:04:31
More complex interactions among group members requires more complex expression, hence promoting the creation of language. Resource management requires concept of number and quantity.Group members also need to resolve conflicts among them, thus pushing them to create social rules and basic morality.These developments require even more information storage. At some point, keeping them all internally is no longer practical. It promotes the use of external information storage.
It has the same working principle as internal information storage, which is reconfiguration of something to represent something else. Naturally, internal information storage can be found in configuration of neural cells. While external information storage can be found in drawings, statues, writings, and other artworks.
External information storages have some advantages, especially that they can be much more durable than internal ones, even can last much longer than their users' life time. They can also be accessed by many users, which help collaboration efforts.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/09/2018 13:36:24
Another way to prevent breakdowns is by protecting the configuration, which is essentially creating more conducive environment around the things to be protected. The protection techniques also evolve, along with the storyline of replication as described previously.Lifeless things tend to break down, which means that their configuration change to become less ordered.The breakdowns are usually caused by changes in the environment.
Their configuration will have better chance to survive if they can duplicate/self replicate, i.e. induce their environment to replicate their configuration, hence creating backups. So even if the original copy does break down, some of its duplicates might survive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/10/2019 04:04:00
Let's take a chess game for an example. The priorities, in my opinion (sorted from highest) :I think I got the priorities wrong. Above were sorted by rewards.
1. Checkmate the opponent's king.
2. Prevent checkmate on own king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Try to get #1. If it's impossible, try to get #2 (draw). If it's also impossible, try to get #3 by resigning.
It's impossible to achieve 1 while failing to achieve 2. Hence, if we take the possibilities into account, the correct priorities should be
1. Prevent checkmate on own king.
2. Checkmate the opponent's king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/10/2019 10:34:23
Examples of the first method: accumulating of genetic materials inside cell's nucleus, endosymbiosis, building of cities, library, data servers.
Examples of the second method: development of neuron and neural network, language (sign, spoken, written), electronic telecommunication, internet.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/11/2019 12:09:38
We can see that artificial consciuous agents are less attached to the hardware, while having more emphasize on the software. The hardware can be more easily replaced without changing their functionality. They are also easier to upgrade. Those agents can share the same hardware, but each of them can also lives in several hardwares at once connected in a network, such as bots in RTS games, trading bots, and bots employed to optimize process controls. They can also live in virtual machines, which in turn can be made of several interconnected hardwares.
But hardware attachments of naturally occuring conscious agents are not absolute either. Cells making up a human fetus can be completely replaced by other cells when it has grown up as an adult. The identity is only preserved by continuity of gradual changes.
Our common knowledge tells us that so far our consciousness has been progressing upward. It is unthinkable to suggest that we (currently existing conscious agents) must strive to reduce our consciousness level. It is also unreasonable to suggest that we must keep our consiousness level as it is now; at which point we should stop the progress? why so?
The only reasonable option that's left is to improve our consciousness level so in the future it should be higher than now.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/11/2019 12:57:55
Currently their effort to improve the condition of their successors are limited in effectiveness, efficiency, accuracy, and precision. They can't always get what they want, and sometimes unwanted side effects are not avoidable.
If someday we find some methods to improve our condition effectively, efficiently, accurately, and precisely, what stops us from hacking our own body to get what we want and avoid what we don't want?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/11/2019 08:52:22
In my other thread i've argued that consciousness is a continuum ranged from 0 to infinity, whith rocks and Laplace's demon representing those lower and upper limits. Everything else lies in between, including viruses, plants and animals which occur naturally, as well as artificial ones like single loop process controllers, computer viruses, deep blue, alpha zero.This unbalanced scale may make us wonder, why half of the scale (negative side) is left unoccupied? Is it possible for an agent to have negative consciousness? What does it means?
According to Wikipedia,
Quote
In mathematics, a negative number is a real number that is less than zero. Negative numbers represent opposites. If positive represents a movement to the right, negative represents a movement to the left. If positive represents above sea level, then negative represents below sea level. If positive represents a deposit, negative represents a withdrawal. They are often used to represent the magnitude of a loss or deficiency. A debt that is owed may be thought of as a negative asset, a decrease in some quantity may be thought of as a negative increase. If a quantity may have either of two opposite senses, then one may choose to distinguish between those senses—perhaps arbitrarily—as positive and negative. Negative numbers are used to describe values on a scale that goes below zero, such as the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales for temperature. The laws of arithmetic for negative numbers ensure that the common sense idea of an opposite is reflected in arithmetic. For example, −(−3) = 3 because the opposite of an opposite is the original value.Thus by following the pattern, we can infer that agents with negative level of consciousness are those with non-zero potential/information processing capability, but somehow misled that effectively they become self destructive (or destructive to their peers or the bigger system they are being a part of), hence cancelling out that potential/capability.
Some examples come into my mind are mass suicidal group such as that's led by Jim Jones. Other examples include other religious groups who believe that end time is near and nothing they can do to prevent it. Fundamental nihilist may be included in this list.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/11/2019 11:38:50
Like any other systems, an agent can be broken down into three main parts: input, process, and output.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/OpenSystemRepresentation.svg/378px-OpenSystemRepresentation.svg.png)
Conscious agents get information from their inputs to build a simplified model of their current surrounding environment. The model is then processed by the system's core using some algorithm/function involving current inputs, memorized previous inputs, some internal/built in parameters, as well as current and memorized previous outputs.
An efficient system must use minimum resource to achieve target. One way to do that is by data compression. The agent's environment is continuously changing, hence the data from the input parts must also change accordingly. Memorized previous inputs then would accumulate from time to time. Without data compression, the memory would be depleted in no time.
Another way is by discarding unnecessary/insignificant data. Data that don't have impact to the result must be removed and overwritten in the memory.
Yet another way to become an efficient system is by resource and load sharing. A multicellular organim is basically a collection of cells that work together for common goals, which are to survive and thrive. They develop specialized tissues, which means some cells develop some functions to be more effective at doing some task while abandoning other functions to save resource and be more efficient. Not every cell has to be photosensitive, and not every cell has to develop hard shell to provide protection.
Quote
Multicellularity allows an organism to exceed the size limits normally imposed by diffusion: single cells with increased size have a decreased surface-to-volume ratio and have difficulty absorbing sufficient nutrients and transporting them throughout the cell. Multicellular organisms thus have the competitive advantages of an increase in size without its limitations. They can have longer lifespans as they can continue living when individual cells die. Multicellularity also permits increasing complexity by allowing differentiation of cell types within one organism.The necessity of data compression becomes more apparent the higher the conscience level of the agent is. It's even become inevitable for Laplace's demon. Without data compression, all matter in universe will be used up as memory modelling the universe itself in current state, leaving nothing for input and output parts. Without input and output, an agent can not execute its plan.
Post by: puppypower on 25/11/2019 12:24:11
In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.
The only viable way to create universal utopia is from within oneself. If you wake up feeling refreshed and happy, then the world around you takes on a utopia character. If on the next day, you wake up tired and grouchy, the world has not changed, but your attitude has changed, thereby taking away the utopia of yesterday.
We cannot change the world in a way that satisfies everyone, regardless of everyones mood or their desire du jour. There is not enough resources to satisfy everyone using external stimulus, since people vary so much. The only way to utopia is to help people find their own internal sweet spot; good day every day, so happiness can be found in the practical world of limiting situations.
This has been the goal of many religions. Jesus, for example, preached love since love can give one the internal rose colored glassed needed to see utopia. If you fall in love, the world becomes beautiful and life becomes easier and satisfying. The internal attitude decides if we see utopia, in the end. If you start to fight with your beloved, the neural chemistry changes and utopia is gone. Now you are in hell. If love returns and you make up, utopia returns. It is about creating the proper neural chemical brain environment, apart from external stimulus.
Be not conformed to the world, was a lesson by Jesus and Buddha, not to be too dependent on the external environment. The external environment can be used to push buttons for neural chemical happiness and utopia. However, this is short term. In the end, internal perception is what decides, whether we see utopia or not. External things wear out, in terms of their button pushing power, so we will need a new, larger or different dosage to active the internal perception.
The mass mind of culture, which is driven by money and power, promises external button pushing happiness, is we buy the latest gadget, or vote for people who can bring us the latest utopian dream world. But these are short terms buzzes that do not last. The real goal of the mass mind are the external dream buttons of the rich and powerful, who need more and more resources and control to push their own buttons. It is a jungle of utopia addicts, in competition for limited external drugs of higher and higher costs. In the end, all that is needed is an inner attitude that exists apart from sensory reality, and is thereby not be limited, to short term external button pushing.
If you look at social media, this is a combination of internal and external button pushing. On the one hand it allows one to be anonymous so you can live a fantasy world for internal button pushing. It also about likes and hits for external button pushing. But there is also negativity as though utopia is zero sum game and one persons utopia takes away from another. With internal button pushing there is enough utopia for all.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/11/2019 12:32:32
The only viable way to create universal utopia is from within oneself. If you wake up feeling refreshed and happy, then the world around you takes on a utopia character. If on the next day, you wake up tired and grouchy, the world has not changed, but your attitude has changed, thereby taking away the utopia of yesterday.There are reasons why I used those words as the title of this thread.
We cannot change the world in a way that satisfies everyone, regardless of everyones mood or their desire du jour. There is not enough resources to satisfy everyone using external stimulus, since people vary so much. The only way to utopia is to help people find their own internal sweet spot; good day every day, so happiness can be found in the practical world of limiting situations.
This has been the goal of many religions. Jesus, for example, preached love since love can give one the internal rose colored glassed needed to see utopia. If you fall in love, the world becomes beautiful and life becomes easier and satisfying. The internal attitude decides if we see utopia, in the end. If you start to fight with your beloved, the neural chemistry changes and utopia is gone. Now you are in hell. If love returns and you make up, utopia returns. It is about creating the proper neural chemical brain environment, apart from external stimulus.
Be not conformed to the world, was a lesson by Jesus and Buddha, not to be too dependent on the external environment. The external environment can be used to push buttons for neural chemical happiness and utopia. However, this is short term. In the end, internal perception is what decides, whether we see utopia or not. External things wear out, in terms of their button pushing power, so we will need a new, larger or different dosage to active the internal perception.
The term universal is to emphasize that the goal is applicable universally, including for aliens and artificial lives.
The term utopia is to show that in my opinion, the goal is still unachievable in foreseeable future.
Focusing too much to internal state while neglecting external condition can be fatal. Just see drug addicts who hack their brain chemistry just to feel good and happy regardless their surrounding reality.
As I discussed in another thread, I think that feelings, love, happiness, sadness, pain and pleasure are tools to help us getting better chance to survive. Only survivors can think/contemplate retrospectively.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/11/2019 03:06:13
As I discussed in another thread, I think that feelings, love, happiness, sadness, pain and pleasure are tools to help us getting better chance to survive. Only survivors can think/contemplate retrospectively.If we contemplate retrospectively, we'll see that we are here only because our ancestors have survived, reproduced, thrived, and evolved genetically as well as memetically. We can have this discussion because someone have discovered language, math, electromagnetism, invented transistor, computer, telecommunication, information technology, etc.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/11/2019 03:45:22
The necessity of data compression becomes more apparent the higher the conscience level of the agent is. It's even become inevitable for Laplace's demon. Without data compression, all matter in universe will be used up as memory modelling the universe itself in current state, leaving nothing for input and output parts. Without input and output, an agent can not execute its plan.Regarding the incremental of consciousness level, I prefer to use the term "system" which is more general rather than the term "being" which brings individualistic nuance. Let's take a moment to think that elemental particles come close together to produce various stable atomic systems. Those atoms then come together and produce molecular systems. Some of those molecules then work together to produce biological cells. Some of those cells are working together to produce multicellular organisms. Some of those organisms are working together to produce societies with cultural systems.
The remarkable achievements of humanity are not because some individual humans have superlative abilities compared to other organisms. Instead, they are products of social collaboration which accumulated over time and generations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/11/2019 03:52:16
When compared to chess analogy, the universal utopia can be paired as follow:Let's take a chess game for an example. The priorities, in my opinion (sorted from highest) :I think I got the priorities wrong. Above were sorted by rewards.
1. Checkmate the opponent's king.
2. Prevent checkmate on own king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
Try to get #1. If it's impossible, try to get #2 (draw). If it's also impossible, try to get #3 by resigning.
It's impossible to achieve 1 while failing to achieve 2. Hence, if we take the possibilities into account, the correct priorities should be
1. Prevent checkmate on own king.
2. Checkmate the opponent's king.
3. Preserve time and energy.
- Preventing checkmate on own king is like preventing currently existing conscious system from extinction. This rule is universal for any consceivable conscious system.
- Getting checkmate of the opponent's king is like getting a maximum consciousness level system. The maximum is infinite, hence the term utopia is used.
- Preserving time and energy is just like preserving available resource to achieve the goals above more efficiently, hence improve the probability of achieving those goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2019 06:52:59
In another thread I argued that moral rules are created to prevent negative effect of conscious agents inflicted to other conscious agents. I think it could be improved to be a more accurate statement. Moral rules are created to prevent negative effect of conscious agents inflicted to larger systems that they are being a part of. Hence there would be moral rules to protect family systems, tribal systems, regional systems, cultural systems, national systems, international systems, and finally a universal system.In my other thread i've argued that consciousness is a continuum ranged from 0 to infinity, whith rocks and Laplace's demon representing those lower and upper limits. Everything else lies in between, including viruses, plants and animals which occur naturally, as well as artificial ones like single loop process controllers, computer viruses, deep blue, alpha zero.This unbalanced scale may make us wonder, why half of the scale (negative side) is left unoccupied? Is it possible for an agent to have negative consciousness? What does it means?
According to Wikipedia,QuoteIn mathematics, a negative number is a real number that is less than zero. Negative numbers represent opposites. If positive represents a movement to the right, negative represents a movement to the left. If positive represents above sea level, then negative represents below sea level. If positive represents a deposit, negative represents a withdrawal. They are often used to represent the magnitude of a loss or deficiency. A debt that is owed may be thought of as a negative asset, a decrease in some quantity may be thought of as a negative increase. If a quantity may have either of two opposite senses, then one may choose to distinguish between those senses—perhaps arbitrarily—as positive and negative. Negative numbers are used to describe values on a scale that goes below zero, such as the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales for temperature. The laws of arithmetic for negative numbers ensure that the common sense idea of an opposite is reflected in arithmetic. For example, −(−3) = 3 because the opposite of an opposite is the original value.Thus by following the pattern, we can infer that agents with negative level of consciousness are those with non-zero potential/information processing capability, but somehow misled that effectively they become self destructive (or destructive to their peers), hence cancelling out that potential/capability.
Some examples come into my mind are mass suicidal group such as that's led by Jim Jones. Other examples include other religious groups who believe that end time is near and nothing they can do to prevent it. Fundamental nihilist may be included in this list.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2019 07:10:54
The remarkable achievements of humanity are not because some individual humans have superlative abilities compared to other organisms. Instead, they are products of social collaboration which accumulated over time and generations.A significant portion of humanity's achievements in building high level conscious systems are no longer reside inside human body. A lot of accumulated knowledge are stored in datacenters connected to the internet. Inventors may not remember all the details of their inventions, but they are available somewhere in data storages. Lawmakers may not remember all currently applicable law in their jurisdictions.
In current state, humans are still the main knowledge generators, but the role of knowledge keepers and distributors are continually shifted to computers with artificial intelligence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/11/2019 02:46:02
A universal utopia, if there is one, would be classified as a meme. And just like any other memes, it will compete for its existence in memory space, whether in people's minds or computer's storage devices.Universal utopia that I've described here is a believe system which needs to pass some sanity tests to be accepted by rational agents. I found an interesting essay while searching for philosophical razor
Quote
Here in the information age, you are bombarded daily with an avalanche of sensory data. Attempting to absorb this data all at once would be impossible, since humans have finite senses and the surrounding amount of information is, for all practical purposes, infinite. Thus, you must learn to program your mind with specific filters to repel unimportant parts of reality while paying attention to those segments of reality that can maintain or improve your well-being. These filters, or "razors", can let you cut through life's nonsense to reach the bottom line of any situation quickly. I would like to propose a triple-bladed mental razor that you can use to slash your way to a sense of certainty as you plow through life's offerings.http://attitudeadjustment.tripod.com/Essays/Slash.htm
The first blade is "Rand's Razor", named after the famous novelist-philosopher Ayn Rand. Rand's Razor simply states, "Name your primaries," which means "name your irreducible axioms." It holds the basic axioms of existence, consciousness, and identity as the standards by which to ponder or to reject any assertion. Any statement that attempts to deny any of these axioms must necessarily be self-refuting because all human knowledge implicitly assumes that "There is (existence)--something (identity)--of which I am aware (consciousness)." These axioms grant existence primacy over consciousness. In other words, consciousness is simply an awareness of external reality via the senses, not a power to control or alter external reality other than through bodily motions caused by an attached brain. Thus, no "spiritual" action such as wishing or praying can cause hurricanes to change course or cause water to change into wine. The axiom of identity, or "non-contradiction principle", holds that a given entity will possess a given nature under a given set of circumstances, and will possess no other nature under those circumstances. For example, a given item cannot be all black and all white at exactly the same time. Together, these three axioms can help you to slash off a whole category of false or useless ideas.
The second blade is "Occam's Razor", named after William of Occam (c. 1285-1349), the English monk and philosopher. He contended that, all other things being equal, the simplest explanation should be given the most consideration. In his own words, "It is vain to do with more what can be done with less." Those who receive daily exposure to the popular media need this razor to carve through the convoluted arguments made by politicians, lawyers, journalists, broadcasters, televangelists, "psychic hotlines", "business opportunities", and a host of other influences. If you are intrigued by Occam's Razor, I encourage you to investigate the broader field of informal logical fallacies, a list of which can be found on my web site. Together, Occam's Razor and a solid understanding of informal logical fallacies can forge a great scimitar to slash through the constant myths and outright deceptions foisted onto the public by misguided "leaders", business hucksters, and other folks.
The last blade of the triple-bladed razor is what I call "Robbins's Razor", named after world-famous peak-performance consultant Anthony Robbins. Robbins's Razor insists that, when faced with two or more possible beliefs about a situation, a person should purposely select the most empowering belief. In his book Awaken the Giant Within, he explores the impact of beliefs and the distinction between "empowering" and "disempowering" beliefs on human behavior. Put simply, an empowering belief helps a person to reach a desired goal, while a disempowering belief hinders a person's achievement of that goal. His book offers methods for collapsing disempowering beliefs and replacing them with alternative, empowering beliefs. Robbins uses a "table with legs" metaphor to describe beliefs, with the table top representing the "belief" and the supporting legs representing the sensory data that support that belief. By creating states of doubt about a belief, a person can begin knocking out the supports of that belief until the belief itself collapses. Simply collapsing a disempowering belief is not enough, Robbins argues. A new, empowering belief must be constructed in its place in order to re-route the neural associations permanently and thus prevent the return of the disempowering belief.
Robbins provides an example of an overweight person who possessed a disempowering belief that attempting to lose weight is a vain act and that vanity is a bad character trait. Thus, this man did not even bother doing more research on the matter of becoming thinner because he believed that doing so would reflect badly on his character. Some counseling revealed that this person did have at least a latent desire to lose weight. Robbins helped him to create doubt about the disempowering belief by asking questions such as, "What is stupid or ridiculous about this belief?" Eventually, the man formed a new, empowering alternative belief: "My body is a temple for my spirit, and I should honor my spirit by caring for its temple." As a result, he began a successful program of weight loss. While this example is very mystical in nature, it does convey the concept of distinguishing two types of beliefs and how to choose the more helpful of the two.
Although I find Robbins's Razor very useful, I contend that attempting to apply it without the aforementioned razors of Rand and Occam can lead a person to significant errors in thinking. If a person does use Rand's and Occam's Razors first, though, Robbins's Razor can serve as a valuable tool to hack through the mountains of negativity and self-helplessness that pound our world today. After all, if you can brush aside the many statements that violate laws of nature and rules of logic to get down to several equal possibilities, why would you want to pick the least empowering of the set? I cannot think of a good reason, at least not if I want to produce ongoing happiness and prosperity for myself. I suspect you will draw the same conclusion as you adopt this triple-action scalpel to excise the fetid gangrene that has infected the information age.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophical_razor
To answer Rand's razor, here are two assumptions used to construct the universal utopia believe system:
restating those basic assumptions in fewer words:If this universal goal exist, then all organisms will try to achieve it. Conscious organisms will make plans to achieve it, because the plan can increase the probability to achieve target.Another basic assumption which is necessary to get to a universal goal is that there is an objective reality. Otherwise there would be no cooperation among units of a system that tries to achieve that goal.
Plans work based on assumption that law of causality applies, otherwise, if everything happens at random, then there would be no point in making plans.
Perhaps some of you think that those two basic assumptions are so obvious as not to seem worth stating, but without them, I don't think we can go forward discussing this topic any further.
This reminds me of a Bertrand Russell quoteQuoteThe point of philosophy is to start with something so simple as not to seem worth stating, and to end with something so paradoxical that no one will believe it.
Bertrand Russell
(https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/bertrand_russell_107179)
We'll see if those basic assumptions will lead us to a paradox.
1. There is universe.
2. There are universal laws.
As for causality, it is necessary to assume that time exists. This entails that there are changes in things in the universe. Some are fast, some are slow.
To answer Occam's razor, we need some alternatives with equal explanatory power. I rely on other members of this forum to provide one.
To answer Robbins' razor, I can say that universal utopia is an empowering belief system. It provide us a universal goal worth pursuing, and that our efforts to get there are not in vain. Our successors depend on us to provide "giants' shoulders" so that they can see further into the future, just like we have been depending on our predecessors.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/11/2019 04:25:11
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
Quote
Hanlon's razor is an aphorism expressed in various ways, including:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."[1]
Probably named after a Robert J. Hanlon, it is a philosophical razor which suggests a way of eliminating unlikely explanations for human behavior.
Some examples I can recall are:
- Human sacrifice of the Aztech to appease Gods and prevent natural disaster and give humanity life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sacrifice_in_Aztec_culture
- Jephthah's sacrifice of his daughter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jephthah#Sacrifice_of_daughter
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/12/2019 07:21:11
Speaking of philosophical razors, this one is particularly closely related to morality.If we think about immoral actions retrospectively, we can see that all of them are caused by ignorance. A lot of their perpetrators have incorrect model of reality, and consequently, they have incorrect order of priority list. Let's take ISIS fighter for example. In their world view, human life in this world is just a mean to determine their fate in the afterlife. Happines and suffering in this life are so insignificant compared to the next life. If only those were true, what they did really made sense, just like my previous examples.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razorQuoteHanlon's razor is an aphorism expressed in various ways, including:
"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."[1]
Probably named after a Robert J. Hanlon, it is a philosophical razor which suggests a way of eliminating unlikely explanations for human behavior.
Some examples I can recall are:
- Human sacrifice of the Aztech to appease Gods and prevent natural disaster and give humanity life.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_sacrifice_in_Aztec_culture
- Jephthah's sacrifice of his daughter
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jephthah#Sacrifice_of_daughter
Similar world view might be shared by Japanese kamikaze fighters during world war II, although they also made some different set of assumptions. NAZI made incorrect assumption that aryans are the finish product of evolution, and other races are inferior and just wasting resources.
In previous cases, a significant number of people share those world view. In some places, they may even be the majority. Now let's take a look at a case where most people judge as pure evil, such as Ted Bundy. It seems that he put his personal pleasure above all else in his priority list. There are some possible scenarios for this lack of higher priority goals. He might be a nihilist, who thought that nothing really matters, hence nothing to stop his efforts to fulfill his personal pleasure. Another possibility is that he was an adherent of a particular religion which promise forgiveness in a quick and cheap manner, thus no unwanted consequences was there to stop him.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2019 07:52:03
It is baseless to assume that humans are the end product of evolution, at least in the current form. Yet most of us value humanity so high up in the priority list. There must be some reason why it is the case. Currently, the existence of known highly conscious system, including AI systems are dependent on humans who built, maintain and use them. If human suddenly extinct now, they will follow to stop functioning not long after.
We know that current human form requires a lot of support to survive. Most places in the universe don't naturally support human life, but that may gradually change in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/12/2019 08:09:49
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life
To make productive discussion possible, we need to have useful definition of life. That definition must be broad enough to include (almost) all systems that commonly regarded as life, but at the same time specific enough to exclude (almost) all systems that commonly regarded as non-life. In other word, it must be balanced to minimize false negative as well as false positive cases.Life as we know it requires certain condition to thrive. Most of them can't survive in the vacuum of space. Those who do survive change to survival mode, which make them unable to thrive.
I think the popular definition in Wikipedia above is too narrow, hence has high probability to get false negative case, such as the mule that was dicussed above. I prefer a broader definition than this, like "having the ability to duplicate genetic material with minimum support". I leave the definition of "minimum support" here to discuss.
Most life can only survive in very narrow spectra of conditions such as temperature, pressure, gravitational field, electromagnetic radiation, composition of elements/compounds. They can be viewed as environmental support.
Aside from those, humans require support from other organisms for food, photosynthetic organisms to supply oxygen, gut flora to help digestion, other human from opposite gender to reproduce, society to share resources, etc.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/12/2019 08:37:04
Due to limited available resources, we need to set priorities for those goals. It means that when they are in conflict among one another, the one with higher priority must be fulfilled first, which also means that the lower priority goals must be sacrificed. This priority setting is discussed extensively in morality study such as in various trolley problems.
Without a universal common goal, there will always be disputes about how the priority lists should be arranged, and morality can only be evaluated relatively. But in the end, only surviving conscious agents can do the evaluation, hence the universal goals will eventually be discovered, given adequate time for them to develop.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/12/2019 08:01:16
Quote
law1
/lɔː/
noun
1.
the system of rules which a particular country or community recognizes as regulating the actions of its members and which it may enforce by the imposition of penalties.
"shooting the birds is against the law"
Quote
Law is a system of rules that are created and enforced through social or governmental institutions to regulate behavior.[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law
When they involve collective/representative decision making, we get politics. In the past, those activities are limited by geographical barriers which makes political systems are tightly connected to the area under their influence. Technological advancements especially in transportation and telecommunication can break the geographical barrier to enable remotely controlled area such as greenland and hawaii.
Quote
Politics is a set of activities associated with the governance of a country, state or an area. It involves making decisions that apply to groups of members.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics
Quote
politics
/ˈpɒlɪtɪks/
noun
1.
the activities associated with the governance of a country or area, especially the debate between parties having power.
"the party quickly gained influence in French politics"
2.
activities aimed at improving someone's status or increasing power within an organization.
"yet another discussion of office politics and personalities"
When the activities involve managing resource to achieve the goals of a system, we get economy.
Quote
economy
/ɪˈkɒnəmi/
noun
1.
the state of a country or region in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services and the supply of money.
"he favours tax cuts to stimulate the economy"
2.
careful management of available resources.
"fuel economy"
Moral, political, and economic efforts are parts of the more general efforts to achieve a system's goals, and they don't make sense in the long run except in the light of universal utopia. An extremely successful stamp collector AGI which I've mentioned in another thread can be taken as a clear example.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/01/2020 09:36:30
To answer Occam's razor, we need some alternatives with equal explanatory power. I rely on other members of this forum to provide one.People have tried to answer the question on purpose of life by religions. Google's dictionary says that religion is closely related with gods.
Quote
the belief in and worship of a superhuman controlling power, especially a personal God or gods.In his book Homo Deus, Yuval Noah Harari includes humanism (which branches into liberalism, socialism, and fascism) and dataism as new religions. Do you agree with him? why so?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/01/2020 10:22:05
In his book Homo Deus, Yuval Noah Harari includes humanism (which branches into liberalism, socialism, and fascism) and dataism as new religions.
In Homo Deus, the author concludes that humans get the advantage over other species by their ability to cooperate in large number through shared myths/invented stories. They started with tribal animism, and then developed into more complex religious systems by inventing gods. With scientific progress, people increasingly doubt the veracity of religious dogma due to discrepancies with scientific observations. They shifted to humanism that viewed humanity as the highest value. It turns out that this view was only practical because human brains were the best data processing available at that time. Futurists have already realized that humans in current form are not special and clearly not the most optimal data processor. They saw the more general pattern in historical progress which emphasizes in data processing capability, which he called dataism. The universal utopia that I've described here can be classified as dataism.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/01/2020 10:39:01
Quote
I am not sure when I first became aware of the Singularity. I'd have to say it was a progressive awakening. In the
almost half century that I've immersed myself in computer and related technologies, I've sought to understand
the meaning and purpose of the continual upheaval that I have witnessed at many levels. Gradually, I've
become aware of a transforming event looming in the first half of the twenty-first century. Just as a black hole in space
dramatically alters the patterns of matter and energy accelerating toward its event horizon, this impending Singularity
in our future is increasingly transforming every institution and aspect of human life, from sexuality to spirituality.
What, then, is the Singularity? It's a future period during which the pace of technological change will be so rapid,
its impact so deep, that human life will be irreversibly transformed. Although neither utopian nor dystopian, this epoch
will transform the concepts that we rely on to give meaning to our lives, from our business models to the cycle of
human life, including death itself. Understanding the Singularity will alter our perspective on the significance of our
past and the ramifications for our future. To truly understand it inherently changes one's view of life in general and
one's own particular life. I regard someone who understands the Singularity and who has reflected on its implications
for his or her own life as a "singularitarian."1
I can understand why many observers do not readily embrace the obvious implications of what I have called the
law of accelerating returns (the inherent acceleration of the rate of evolution, with technological evolution as a
continuation of biological evolution), After all, it took me forty years to be able to see what was right in front of me,
and I still cannot say that I am entirely comfortable with all of its consequences.
He breaks down the evolution towards singularity into 6 epochs.
Quote
Evolution is a process of creating patterns of increasing order. ... I believe that it's the evolution of patterns that constitutes the ultimate story of our world. Evolution works through indirection: each stage or epoch uses the information-processing methods of the previous epoch to create the next. I conceptualize the history of evolution—both biological and technological—as occurring in six epochs. As we will discuss, the Singularity will begin with Epoch Five and will spread from Earth to the rest of the universe in Epoch Six.(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/fa/36/b2/fa36b2b6d6a0292c9d4e1becb5aaf95a.jpg)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Major_Evolutionary_Transitions_digital.jpg)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/01/2020 10:17:42
When the activities involve managing resource to achieve the goals of a system, we get economy.Quoteeconomy
/ɪˈkɒnəmi/
noun
1.
the state of a country or region in terms of the production and consumption of goods and services and the supply of money.
"he favours tax cuts to stimulate the economy"
2.
careful management of available resources.
"fuel economy"
Moral, political, and economic efforts are parts of the more general efforts to achieve a system's goals, and they don't make sense in the long run except in the light of universal utopia. An extremely successful stamp collector AGI which I've mentioned in another thread can be taken as a clear example.
In modern time, when talking about economy, people often think about economic indicators.
Quote
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate (quit rate in U.S. English), housing starts, consumer price index (a measure for inflation), consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, stock market prices, and money supply changes.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator
But we must realize that those indicators are new construct which didn't exist/readily available a few centuries back.
Quote
An economy (from Greek οίκος – "household" and νέμoμαι – "manage") is an area of the production, distribution and trade, as well as consumption of goods and services by different agents. Understood in its broadest sense, 'The economy is defined as a social domain that emphasize the practices, discourses, and material expressions associated with the production, use, and management of resources'.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy
To play a real time strategy games such as Starcraft, an AI as well as human player must solve economic problems. Ability to manage resources has also been observed in animals.
Quote
“The difference in mind between man and the higher animals, great as it is, certainly is one of degree and not of kind.”https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3118901/
The Descent of Man (Charles Darwin, 1871)
With the rise of AI, especially potential advancement to AGI, many people worry about unemployment and growing income inequality. But let's not forget that getting a job is just an instrumental goal to have income, which in turn is an instrumental goal to get services from other people as economic agents, which in turn is an instrumental goal to get resources required to survive, such as food, clothing, housing, medical assistance, etc. There should be no obligation to fulfill those instrumental goals as long as the terminal goal is achieved. Some alternative instrumental goals I can think of e.g. Self sustained housings / artificial biosphere which recycle its resources such as water, carbon and oxygen using renewable energy. Tools can be made using 3D printing technology.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/02/2020 11:15:05
(https://cdn.wallstreetmojo.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Money-vs-Currency-info.jpg)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/86/Money_flower.png/675px-Money_flower.png)
Taxonomy of money, based on "Central bank cryptocurrencies" by Morten Linnemann Bech and Rodney Garratt
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/02/2020 01:18:28
Quote
Money is any item or verifiable record that is generally accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts, such as taxes, in a particular country or socio-economic context.[1][2][3] The main functions of money are distinguished as: a medium of exchange, a unit of account, a store of value and sometimes, a standard of deferred payment.[4][5] Any item or verifiable record that fulfils these functions can be considered as money.From the description above, and the law of diminishing marginal utility, we can draw a conclusion that in a general term, money is a tool to help tracking balance of supply and demand.
Quote
The concept in cardinal utility theory that marginal utilities diminish across the ranges relevant to decision-making is called the "law of diminishing marginal utility" (and is also known as Gossen's First Law). This refers to the increase in utility an individual gains from increasing their consumption of a particular good. "The law of diminishing marginal utility is at the heart of the explanation of numerous economic phenomena, including time preference and the value of goods ... The law says, first, that the marginal utility of each homogenous unit decreases as the supply of units increases (and vice versa); second, that the marginal utility of a larger-sized unit is greater than the marginal utility of a smaller-sized unit (and vice versa). The first law denotes the law of diminishing marginal utility, the second law denotes the law of increasing total utility."[14]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marginal_utility#Diminishing_marginal_utility
This is in line with the etymology of money itself as follow:
Quote
Etymology
The word "money" is believed to originate from a temple of Juno, on Capitoline, one of Rome's seven hills. In the ancient world Juno was often associated with money. The temple of Juno Moneta at Rome was the place where the mint of Ancient Rome was located.[10] The name "Juno" may derive from the Etruscan goddess Uni (which means "the one", "unique", "unit", "union", "united") and "Moneta" either from the Latin word "monere" (remind, warn, or instruct) or the Greek word "moneres" (alone, unique).
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/02/2020 07:23:50
The air is very important for human life. Without it, human will die in a few minutes. But since it is abundant on most places where humans live, we don't have to spend money to breathe it.
In some places where breathable clean air is scarce, such as underwater environment, polluted places, we need tools to provide it. If we can't build the tools by ourselves, we ask someone elses to build them. That's when we need money to track the usage of resources to build the tools to provide us breathable air.
In physical currency, the money spender and receiver acts as distributed data processors who track the balance of supply and demand. This system rely on the assumptions that transaction actors don't change the amount of currency in existence. They don't create or destroy their own money.
In electronic transactions using banking systems, they are banks' data servers. In cryptocurrencies, they are crypto miners' computers.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/02/2020 11:25:00
A lot of resources have limited usefulness in time. They become spoiled not long after they are produced. If excess of production can not be distributed properly, they will be wasted. So improved efficiency due to mass production couldn't be realized.
Inventors need resources to build their inventions. The money from financiers help redistribution of resources required by the inventions which produce more useful resources.
From an economic agent's perspective, borrowing or lending money can be seen as redistributing resources with themselves in different times. For example, if I borrow money to buy a car now, the future me needs to work harder to earn more money to pay for the price, plus some interest.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/03/2020 22:45:33
With the rise of AI, especially potential advancement to AGI, many people worry about unemployment and growing income inequality. But let's not forget that getting a job is just an instrumental goal to have income, which in turn is an instrumental goal to get services from other people as economic agents, which in turn is an instrumental goal to get resources required to survive, such as food, clothing, housing, medical assistance, etc. There should be no obligation to fulfill those instrumental goals as long as the terminal goal is achieved. Some alternative instrumental goals I can think of e.g. Self sustained housings / artificial biosphere which recycle its resources such as water, carbon and oxygen using renewable energy. Tools can be made using 3D printing technology.The ultimate goal can be found by starting from an important thing that we think we must do, and then answer the question why we have to do it. Keep asking why to the answer iteratively until we run out of excuse. Often times it's helpful to also try to answer why not in each iteration, just to give us a more complete picture to the issue at hand.
This is similar to 5 whys method which is widely used in manufacturing process. The difference is that here we don't stop at any arbitrary number of steps.
Quote
Five whys (or 5 whys) is an iterative interrogative technique used to explore the cause-and-effect relationships underlying a particular problem.[1] The primary goal of the technique is to determine the root cause of a defect or problem by repeating the question "Why?". Each answer forms the basis of the next question. The "five" in the name derives from an anecdotal observation on the number of iterations needed to resolve the problem.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_whys
Quote
Level 1 -- Why are you in business?
Efforts and courage are not enough without purpose and direction. -- John F. Kennedy
Quote
Level 2 -- Why do I work?https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/246847
Choose a job you love and never work a day in your life. - Confucius
Religious preachers insist that science can never answer the why question while admitting that it can answer the other questions. Some scientists even have followed suit and expressed that why question isn't a scientific question.
I'll try to show that this exception is baseless. At least, science has provided us methods to determine if some proposed answers to the why question are compatible with perceived objective reality. When they don't, we can reasonably reject them and then go to find some alternatives.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2020 04:29:49
The ultimate goal can be found by starting from an important thing that we think we must do, and then answer the question why we have to do it. Keep asking why to the answer iteratively until we run out of excuse. Often times it's helpful to also try to answer why not in each iteration, just to give us a more complete picture to the issue at hand.
Every starting point will eventually lead to the universal ultimate/terminal goal for any conscious thinker. This comes with realization that any conceivable goal can be deceiving, except the thinker's own existence.
Decartes demonstrated by reductio ad absurdum, that if a thinker rejects its own existence, it leads to contradiction.We can continue Decartes' work by using this first certainty, the cogito, as a foundation upon which to build further knowledge. The advancement of science so far has given us the refined model of ourselves (human thinkers) with ever increasing accuracy and precision. It also offers plausible explanation on what we are made of, when and where we came from, how we emerge from basic chemical ingredients going through process of duplication, random change and natural selection.QuoteAt the beginning of the second meditation, having reached what he considers to be the ultimate level of doubt—his argument from the existence of a deceiving god—Descartes examines his beliefs to see if any have survived the doubt. In his belief in his own existence, he finds that it is impossible to doubt that he exists. Even if there were a deceiving god (or an evil demon), one's belief in their own existence would be secure, for there is no way one could be deceived unless one existed in order to be deceived.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cogito,_ergo_sum#Interpretation
But I have convinced myself that there is absolutely nothing in the world, no sky, no earth, no minds, no bodies. Does it now follow that I, too, do not exist? No. If I convinced myself of something [or thought anything at all], then I certainly existed. But there is a deceiver of supreme power and cunning who deliberately and constantly deceives me. In that case, I, too, undoubtedly exist, if he deceives me; and let him deceive me as much as he can, he will never bring it about that I am nothing, so long as I think that I am something. So, after considering everything very thoroughly, I must finally conclude that the proposition, I am, I exist, is necessarily true whenever it is put forward by me or conceived in my mind. (AT VII 25; CSM II 16–17[v])
There are three important notes to keep in mind here. First, he claims only the certainty of his own existence from the first-person point of view — he has not proved the existence of other minds at this point. This is something that has to be thought through by each of us for ourselves, as we follow the course of the meditations. Second, he does not say that his existence is necessary; he says that if he thinks, then necessarily he exists (see the instantiation principle). Third, this proposition "I am, I exist" is held true not based on a deduction (as mentioned above) or on empirical induction but on the clarity and self-evidence of the proposition. Descartes does not use this first certainty, the cogito, as a foundation upon which to build further knowledge; rather, it is the firm ground upon which he can stand as he works to discover further truths.[35] As he puts it:
Archimedes used to demand just one firm and immovable point in order to shift the entire earth; so I too can hope for great things if I manage to find just one thing, however slight, that is certain and unshakable. (AT VII 24; CSM II 16)
It has shown beyond reasonable doubt that other human beings are slightly modified copy of ourselves (human thinkers), which means that their existence is the extension of our own. I have described this line of thinking in another tread.
Quote
For any true statement, there are infinitely many alternatives that are false.
Since the existence of the thinker is the only thing that can't be doubted, it must be defended at all cost.Finally we get to the last question: how. There are some basic strategies to preserve information which I borrow from IT business:The existence of a thinker is subject to natural selection.
Choosing robust media.
Creating multilayer protection.
Creating backups.
Create diversity to avoid common mode failures.
Thinkers who has backups tend to be better at survival than those who don't.
Thinkers who reproduce backups to replace the destroyed copies tend to survive better, otherwise, all of the copies will eventually break down.
Thinkers who actively protect their copies tend to survive better than those who don't.
Thinkers who produce better version of themselves at survival tend to survive better than who don't.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2020 05:11:38
Quote
BILL (AN ENVIRONMENTALIST): On this human body version 2.0 stuff, aren't you throwing the baby out—quite literally—with the bathwater? You're suggesting replacing the entire human body and brain with machines. There's no human being left.
RAY: We don't agree on the definition of human, but just where do you suggest drawing the line? Augmenting the human body and brain with biological or nonbiological interventions is hardly a new concept. There's still a lot of human suffering.
BILL: I have no objection to alleviating human suffering. But replacing a human body with a machine to exceed human performance leaves you with, well, a machine. We have cars that can travel on the ground faster than a human, but we don't consider them to be human.
RAY: The problem here has a lot to do with the word "machine." Your conception of a machine is of something that is much less valued—less complex, less creative, less intelligent, less knowledgeable, less subtle and supple—than a human. That's reasonable for today's machines because all the machines we've ever met—like cars—are like this. The whole point of my thesis, of the coming Singularity revolution, is that this notion of a machine—of nonbiological intelligence—will fundamentally change.
BILL: Well, that's exactly my problem. Part of our humanness is our limitations. We don't claim to be the fastest entity possible, to have memories with the biggest capacity possible, and so on. But there is an indefinable, spiritual quality to being human that a machine inherently doesn't possess.
RAY: Again, where do you draw the line? Humans are already replacing parts of their bodies and brains with non biological replacements that work better at performing their "human" functions.
BILL: Better only in the sense of replacing diseased or disabled organs and systems. But you're replacing essentially all of our humanness to enhance human ability, and that's inherently inhuman.
RAY: Then perhaps our basic disagreement is over the nature of being human. To me, the essence of being human is not our limitations—although we do have many—it's our ability to reach beyond our limitations. We didn't stay on the ground. We didn't even stay on the planet. And we are already not settling for the limitations of our biology.
BILL: We have to use these technological powers with great discretion. Past a certain point, we're losing some ineffable quality that gives life meaning.
RAY: I think we're in agreement that we need to recognize what's important in our humanity. But there is no reason to celebrate our limitations.
. .
Quote
Will robots inherit the earth? Yes, but they will be our children.
—MARVIN MINSKY, 1995
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/03/2020 02:42:18
Quote
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM, 2 BILLION B.C. So tell me again about these ideas you have about the future.
FUTURIST BACTERIUM, 2 BILLION B.C.: Well, I see bacteria getting together into societies, with the whole band of cells basically acting like one big complicated organism with greatly enhanced capabilities.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: What gives you that idea?
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Well already, some of our fellow Daptobacters have gone inside other larger bacteria to form a little duo.221 It's inevitable that our fellow cells will band together so that each cell can specialize its function. As it is now, we each have to do everything by ourselves: find food, digest it, excrete by-products.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: And then what?
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: All these cells will develop ways of communicating with one another that go beyond just the swapping of chemical gradients that you and I can do.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Okay, now tell me again the part about that future superassembly of ten trillion cells.
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Yes, well, according to my models, in about two billion years a big society of ten trillion cells will make up a single organism and include tens of billions of special cells that can communicate with one another in very complicated patterns.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: What sort of patterns?
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Well, "music," for one thing. These huge bands of cells will create musical patterns and communicate them to all the other bands of cells.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Music?
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Yes, patterns of sound.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Sound?
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Okay, look at it this way. These supercell societies will be complicated enough to understand their own organization. They will be able to improve their own design, getting better and better, faster and faster. They will reshape the rest of the world in their image.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Now, wait a second. Sounds like we'll lose our basic bacteriumity.
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Oh, but there will be no loss.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: I know you keep saying that, but ...
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: It will be a great step forward. It's our destiny as bacteria. And, anyway, there will still be little bacteria like us floating around.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Okay, but what about the downside? I mean, how much harm can our fellow Daptobacter and Bdellovibrio bacteria do? But these future cell associations with their vast reach may destroy everything.
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: It's not certain, but I think we'll make it through.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: You always were an optimist.
FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Look, we won't have to worry about the downside for a couple billion years.
FRIEND OF FUTURIST BACTERIUM: Okay, then, let's get lunch.
MEANWHILE, TWO BILLION YEARS LATER . . .
NED LUDD: These future intelligences will be worse than the textile machines I fought back in 1812. Back then we had to worry about only one man with a machine doing the work of twelve. But you're talking about a marble-size machine outperforming all of humanity.
RAY: It will only outperform the biological part of humanity. In any event, that marble is still human, even if not biological.
NED: These superintelligences won't eat food. They won't breathe air. They won't reproduce through sex....So just how are they human?
RAY: We're going to merge with our technology. We're already starting to do that in 2004, even if most of the machines are not yet inside our bodies and brains. Our machines nonetheless extend the reach of our intelligence. Extending our reach has always been the nature of being human.
NED: Look, saying that these superintelligent nonbiological entities are human is like saying that we're basically bacteria. After all, we're evolved from them also.
RAY: It's true that a contemporary human is a collection of cells, and that we are a product of evolution, indeed its cutting edge. But extending our intelligence by reverse engineering it, modeling it, simulating it, reinstantiating it on more capable substrates, and modifying and extending it is the next step in its evolution. It was the fate of bacteria to evolve into a technology-creating species. And it's our destiny now to evolve into the vast intelligence of the Singularity.
Currently, we are the only known living conscious agents capable of discovering their own origin, and starting to modify their own body to meet desired conditions. From our point of view, our ancestors with many different forms from many different geological periods are useful as the precursors to our existence. From the point of view of our future descendants, our purpose as their precursors are providing them with knowledge, wisdom, and appropriate environment to achieve the universal ultimate/terminal goal, which is often called singularity in Kurzweil's book.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/04/2020 03:17:51
1. An apocalyptic event will happen very soon, nothing we can do to stop it. Human will extinct and everything we do/have done won't matter.
2. An apocalyptic event will happen some time later, but humanity's response is too slow. Human will extinct and everything we do won't matter.
3. An apocalyptic event will happen some time later, but humanity's response is adequate. Humans evade extinction and continue to thrive and evolve to be better at survival.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2020 16:59:01
I can't recall who said that, and google search doesn't seem to help.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2020 13:53:05
I've read a quote saying that science is not about knowing how things may be, but knowing how things may not be otherwise.The first part of that quote is hypothesis, while the next is theory.
I can't recall who said that, and google search doesn't seem to help.
So, to make it more scientific, I need to show that the universal ultimate goal has no credible alternative.
I'll start with the most significant bits of alternatives, which is the assumption that there is no such thing as universal ultimate goal. If that is the case, then everyone will simply follow their instinct with no long term preferred state called ultimate goal. Natural selection will then work to make those who have preference for survival and improve their survivability more likely to stay exist, while driving those who don't towards extinction. We just can't escape from anthropic principle.
Previously I've distinghuished between ultimate goal and instrumental goal.
https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Terminal_value
Quote
A terminal value (also known as an intrinsic value) is an ultimate goal, an end-in-itself.If a conscious agent can reliably achieve its instrumental goals while continuously improve their ability to survive (including increasing its own consciousness level), it will eventually realize its ultimate goal. With increasing consiousness level, it will gradually lose subjectivity and gain objectivity to get closer to the universal ultimate goal.
Terminal values stand in contrast to instrumental values (also known as extrinsic values), which are means-to-an-end, mere tools in achieving terminal values. For example, if a given university student studies merely as a professional qualification, his terminal value is getting a job, while getting good grades is an instrument to that end. If a (simple) chess program tries to maximize piece value three turns into the future, that is an instrumental value to its implicit terminal value of winning the game.
Some values may be called "terminal" merely in relation to an instrumental goal, yet themselves serve instrumentally towards a higher goal. However, in considering future artificial general intelligence, the phrase "terminal value" is generally used only for the top level of the goal hierarchy of the AGI itself: the true ultimate goals of the system; but excluding goals inside the AGI in service of other goals, and excluding the purpose of the AGI's makers, the goal for which they built the system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2020 03:28:24
(https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=71347.0;attach=30734)
1 in the left column means that there is something called a goal, while 0 means denial of it.
The middle column classifies the goals in time domain. 1 means there are terminal goals, while 0 means all goals are temporary/instrumental.
The right column classifies the goals in spatial domain. 1 means there are universal goals, while 0 means all goals are partial.
x in the bottom row means that their values are meaningless, since the existence of goals have already been denied.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2020 03:54:46
Here is the truth table for universal terminal goal.Those who take the position of the first row think that there exist a universal terminal goal.
(https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=71347.0;attach=30734)
1 in the left column means that there is something called a goal, while 0 means denial of it.
The middle column classifies the goals in time domain. 1 means there are terminal goals, while 0 means all goals are temporary/instrumental.
The right column classifies the goals in spatial domain. 1 means there are universal goals, while 0 means all goals are partial.
x in the bottom row means that their values are meaningless, since the existence of goals have already been denied.
Those who take the position of the second row think that there exist some terminal goals, but they vary between different parts of the universe.
Those who take the position of the third row think that there exist a universal goal, but they change with time.
Those who take the position of the fourth row think that there exist some goals, but none of them are terminal nor universal.
Those who take the position of the fifth row think that goals simply don't exist.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2020 22:41:32
Fourth position maintains that every goal is temporary/instrumental and local/subjective. It can be dismissed by showing that there exist a terminal goal or a universal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/05/2020 10:23:41
Second position accepts that there are terminal goals, but rejects the existence of a universal goal. It says that many objects have their own terminal goals, but none of them is universal. Even with given infinite amount of time, no conscious being can have adequate objectiveness to identify a universal goal. Problem arise when there are more than one conscious beings have their terminal goals in conflict with each other. How to resolve the order of priority among them?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/06/2020 00:29:19
The word goal in this context means a preferred state in the future (when it is being set). If it's not a preferred state, it's not a goal. If the state is not in the future, it's not a goal either. So, only conscious being can have a goal, because non-conscious beings can't have preference. Only conscious beings have the capability to build a mental model of future states.
Non-conscious objects can't have a goal by themselves. Only conscious beings can assign goals to them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/06/2020 04:30:06
The word terminal means that the goal must be intended to be achieved at later time than its alternatives, which are instrumental goals. So the universal terminal goal should be viewed from the perspective of the last conscious being.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2020 05:06:45
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg559597#msg559597
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg565226#msg565226
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg582939#msg582939
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg585520#msg585520
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg591376#msg591376
What I mean with multidimensionality of consciousness is analogous to multidensionality of intelligence, which can be broken down to several parameters, such as verbal, numerical, spatial, and memory strength. Some people with similar intelligence level may have different strength and weakness in those parameters. The final assessment thus depends on the formula or algorithm used to combine those parameters into a single value useful to compare intelligence, at least in relative scale.
The measure of general consciousness of an agent is its effectiveness to achieve long term goals. Many ways can be used, including increasing the input resolution, additional sensing methods, increasing memory capacity and data processing speed, having self error correcting mechanism, influencing other agents to help the cause, manipulating its environments, etc. Since the measure will contain a lot of uncertainty, then the result will be statistical in nature, instead of deterministic one.https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=75380.msg592256#msg592256
So the key parameter for consciousness is the accuracy of internal model of the agent in representing parts objective reality which have significant impact to the achievement of the agent's goal in the long term.
The result of the general consciousness assessment of an agent is not used to justify right or priviledge of that agent, but instead to select appropriate set of moral rules which they can follow/obey effectively and efficiently to achieve desired results in the long term. Simply put, with great power comes great responsibility.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-purpose/201902/what-actually-is-thought-and-how-is-information-physicalQuoteGoogle the word “thought” and you will find this uninformative, circular definition: “an idea or opinion produced by thinking, or occurring suddenly in the mind.” The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines “think” in a similarly unhelpful way: “to form or have in the mind.” But what actually is a thought?
A thought is a representation of something. A representation is a likeness—a thing that depicts another thing by having characteristics that correspond to that other thing. For example, a picture, image, imprint or mold of an object is a representation of that object.QuoteModern information theory has taught us that information is a physical entity. Rolf Landauer, an IBM physicist, stated the case:
"Information is not an abstract entity but exists only through a physical representation, thus tying it to all the restrictions and possibilities of our real physical universe” “Information is inevitably inscribed in a physical medium."2
Elsewhere, Landauer explained further:
"Information is not a disembodied abstract entity; it is always tied to a physical representation. It is represented by engraving on a stone tablet, a spin, a charge [i.e. of elementary particles such as electrons], a hole in a punched card, a mark on paper, or some other equivalent."3
So too, no thought can occur without its neural substrate.QuoteA map is an analog of the environment it is depicting—it corresponds to it. An analog is something that is similar to, or comparable to, something else either in general or in some specific detail. Maps can be regarded as a form of analogy-making (‘A’ is to ‘B’ as ‘X’ is to ‘Y’).
Cognitive scientist Douglas Hofstadter and psychologist Emmanuel Sander suggest that all thoughts are built from analogy-making. They propose that categorization through analogy-making is “the driving force behind all thought.”4 Our brains detect similarities or correspondences between newly and previously encountered situations, enabling the application of previously learned information to the new situation. “The very essence of an analogy is that it maps some mental structure onto another mental structure.”5QuoteThe sense of self begins with the nervous system’s map of its own body
The neuroscientist Antonio Damasio proposed a model for how the self emerges in gradations, in organisms of increasing evolutionary complexity. According to this model, a simple organism develops a rudimentary form of ‘self-awareness’ by forming a map of its body and its position in the physical space it occupies. Damasio calls the most basic representation of self the protoself—a nonconscious state that many species may have. It’s a very basic level of awareness comprised of neural patterns representing or mapping the body's physical structure.11QuoteIn summary: Information is physical and relational, and we are networks of information
Thoughts are not ethereal. They are representations of matter and are encoded in matter. They have shape and weight. Abstract ideas are analogically built from more concrete sensory representations. The sense of self is built from self-representations. Thoughts are forms of information, and all information is physical and relational. It ‘feels’ like something to ‘have’ a thought and to ‘be’ a self because we are that information, recursively reflecting on itself in an infinite regress.11
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2020 07:28:36
The experiment will most likely give different result for different researchers, depending on their assumed threshold of consciousness level. It may also depend on the order of the neuron destruction.
We can find a similar situation in determining adulthood. At which point in your life you change from a kid into an adult?
Humans grow from a zygot into an embryo, fetus, baby, toddler, kid, adult, elderly. At which point it turns from non-conscious thing into a conscious being?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2020 06:44:04
To demonstrate that consiousness is a continuous parameter, we can use a thought experiment. Take a human subject which we can all agree that he/she is a conscious being. Destroy one neuron out of billions that exist in the brain, and then ask if he/she is still conscious. Repeat the experiment until we all agree that he/she is not conscious.This realization brings us to next question: what factors can contribute to the increase and decrease of consciousness?
The experiment will most likely give different result for different researchers, depending on their assumed threshold of consciousness level. It may also depend on the order of the neuron destruction.
We can find a similar situation in determining adulthood. At which point in your life you change from a kid into an adult?
Humans grow from a zygote into an embryo, fetus, baby, toddler, kid, adult, elderly. At which point it turns from non-conscious thing into a conscious being?
We can revisit the thought experiment and imagine following situations:
- At some point, destroying one neuron doesn't change any measurable effect.
- At some point, destroying one neuron makes the human subject lose some memory.
- At some other point, he/she may lose some ability for numerical processing, verbal processing, or spatial processing.
- Other abilities that may be lost at some point of the experiment are sensing (visual, audio, touch, taste, balance), motoric (such as moving a finger, arm, leg, blinking, breathing, hartbeating), acquired skill (swimming, bicycling, driving, juggling, singing, dancing, writing, coding, playing chess).
- At some point the human subject may stop thinking, and eventually dead at the end of the experiment.
I think we can safely argue that losing some of those abilities reduces consciousness of the human subject. On the other hand, restoring those abilities also restores consciousness, even if the method used to restore it doesn't make the brain structure exactly the same as before the experiment. If the experiment is continued to add some new ability which was not exist in the original human subject (e.g. seeing in infrared spectra, performing one arm push up, translating Chinese, computing advanced Algebra), we can say that his/her consciousness has increased.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/06/2020 11:43:23
In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.In a word, no.
Assuming we are talking about living organisms in real or realistic environments:
Life is about transpiration, respiration, combustion, synthesis, whatever. There must be a defining chemical process.
If the organism is distinct from its environment, which we can assume to be passive and lifeless for the sale of simplicity, then the organism achieves homeostasis or function by extracting energy and material from its environment.
So the environment must in the first instance be friendly and conducive to life, and the organism cannot therefore be independent of it.
All living organisms expel waste from their chemical processes, and the waste, by definition, is not friendly and conducive to life.
So an organism in a finite environment will eventually exhaust the resources it needs to live, and fill the environment with toxins.
You can get somewhere towards Utopia in a closed biosphere. Not sure if they are still available for sale but essentially they consisted of a globe containing water, an aquatic plant, air, and a shrimp. As long as the sun shines and the globe can lose heat to the environment (including radiating heat into space) the shrimp and the seaweed can in principle live for ever. But they are still dependent on getting the right amount of sunshine and not overheating, so not actually independent of environment.
Evolution is about adaptation to an environmental niche. On a geological or astronomical timescale, there are no stable niches, so no single Utopia.
That said, a colleague from Sierra Leone once asked me what was good about living in Essex. I said it was the sunniest county in Britain but too cold for mosquitoes. He said "sounds like Utopia". So if you like jellied eels, Maldon beer and tribute bands (and who doesn't?) there's a close approximation for you.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/06/2020 05:20:35
In a word, no.It looks like you are jumping in to conclusion here.
I've tried to scrutinized logically possible position regarding the existence of universal terminal goal.
I guess you are in position 2. I realize that universality is the hardest to defend. To be a universal goal, it is required to be free of arbitrary constraint/restriction, other than constraints inherently attached to the definition of goal itself.Here is the truth table for universal terminal goal.Those who take the position of the first row think that there exist a universal terminal goal.
(https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=71347.0;attach=30734)
1 in the left column means that there is something called a goal, while 0 means denial of it.
The middle column classifies the goals in time domain. 1 means there are terminal goals, while 0 means all goals are temporary/instrumental.
The right column classifies the goals in spatial domain. 1 means there are universal goals, while 0 means all goals are partial.
x in the bottom row means that their values are meaningless, since the existence of goals have already been denied.
Those who take the position of the second row think that there exist some terminal goals, but they vary between different parts of the universe.
Those who take the position of the third row think that there exist a universal goal, but they change with time.
Those who take the position of the fourth row think that there exist some goals, but none of them are terminal nor universal.
Those who take the position of the fifth row think that goals simply don't exist.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/06/2020 05:44:07
Life is about transpiration, respiration, combustion, synthesis, whatever.It looks like you are being undecisive/unclear.
There must be a defining chemical process.As I said earlier, a universal goal must be free from any arbitrary constraints, such as chemical structure. The evolution itself should not be restricted to genetic information. Richard Dawkins has talked about extended phenotype. In similar tone but from different field of expertise, Ray Kurzweil has emphasized about indirections.
If the organism is distinct from its environment, which we can assume to be passive and lifeless for the sale of simplicity, then the organism achieves homeostasis or function by extracting energy and material from its environment.
So the environment must in the first instance be friendly and conducive to life, and the organism cannot therefore be independent of it.
All living organisms expel waste from their chemical processes, and the waste, by definition, is not friendly and conducive to life.
So an organism in a finite environment will eventually exhaust the resources it needs to live, and fill the environment with toxins.
You can get somewhere towards Utopia in a closed biosphere. Not sure if they are still available for sale but essentially they consisted of a globe containing water, an aquatic plant, air, and a shrimp. As long as the sun shines and the globe can lose heat to the environment (including radiating heat into space) the shrimp and the seaweed can in principle live for ever. But they are still dependent on getting the right amount of sunshine and not overheating, so not actually independent of environment.
Evolution is about adaptation to an environmental niche. On a geological or astronomical timescale, there are no stable niches, so no single Utopia.
Our eukaryote ancestor acquiring mitochondrion is a form of it. Also when we acquire gut microbe.
Various shapes of bird's nest, beaver dams, modern skyscrapers, nuclear submarine, ISS to Mars colony.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biogenic_silica
Even DNA is not restricted to natural base pair anymore. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_pair#Unnatural_base_pair_(UBP)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/06/2020 07:42:25
And an article on Scalable agent alignment via reward modeling from deepmindsafetyresearch.
https://medium.com/@deepmindsafetyresearch/scalable-agent-alignment-via-reward-modeling-bf4ab06dfd84
Quote
In recent years, reinforcement learning has yielded impressive performance in complex game environments ranging from Atari, Go, and chess to Dota 2 and StarCraft II, with artificial agents rapidly surpassing the human level of play in increasingly complex domains. Games are an ideal platform for developing and testing machine learning algorithms. They present challenging tasks that require a range of cognitive abilities to accomplish, mirroring skills needed to solve problems in the real world. Machine learning researchers can run thousands of simulated experiments on the cloud in parallel, generating as much training data as needed for the system to learn.
Crucially, games often have a clear objective, and a score that approximates progress towards that objective. This score provides a useful reward signal for reinforcement learning agents, and allows us to get quick feedback on which algorithmic and architectural choices work best.
The agent alignment problem
Ultimately, the goal of AI progress is to benefit humans by enabling us to address increasingly complex challenges in the real world. But the real world does not come with built-in reward functions. This presents some challenges because performance on these tasks is not easily defined. We need a good way to provide feedback and enable artificial agents to reliably understand what we want, in order to help us achieve it. In other words, we want to train AI systems with human feedback in such a way that the system’s behavior aligns with our intentions. For our purposes, we define the agent alignment problem as follows:
How can we create agents that behave in accordance with the user’s intentions?
The alignment problem can be framed in the reinforcement learning framework, except that instead of receiving a numeric reward signal, the agent can interact with the user via an interaction protocol that allows the user to communicate their intention to the agent. This protocol can take many forms: the user can provide demonstrations, preferences, optimal actions, or communicate a reward function, for example. A solution to the agent alignment problem is a policy that behaves in accordance with the user’s intentions.
There are several challenges that will need to be addressed in order to scale reward modeling to such complex problems. Five of these challenges are listed below and described in more depth in the paper, along with approaches for addressing them.
(https://miro.medium.com/max/1400/0*fhS-SQx1upYjxhaL)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/06/2020 07:52:28
The thought experiments are generally used to check the consistency among assumptions made when building a hypothesis or theory. It turns out that the thought experiment mentioned above has been developed as a useful technique in machine learning field. http://papers.nips.cc/paper/250-optimal-brain-damage.pdfTo demonstrate that consiousness is a continuous parameter, we can use a thought experiment. Take a human subject which we can all agree that he/she is a conscious being. Destroy one neuron out of billions that exist in the brain, and then ask if he/she is still conscious. Repeat the experiment until we all agree that he/she is not conscious.This realization brings us to next question: what factors can contribute to the increase and decrease of consciousness?
The experiment will most likely give different result for different researchers, depending on their assumed threshold of consciousness level. It may also depend on the order of the neuron destruction.
We can find a similar situation in determining adulthood. At which point in your life you change from a kid into an adult?
Humans grow from a zygote into an embryo, fetus, baby, toddler, kid, adult, elderly. At which point it turns from non-conscious thing into a conscious being?
We can revisit the thought experiment and imagine following situations:
- At some point, destroying one neuron doesn't change any measurable effect.
- At some point, destroying one neuron makes the human subject lose some memory.
- At some other point, he/she may lose some ability for numerical processing, verbal processing, or spatial processing.
- Other abilities that may be lost at some point of the experiment are sensing (visual, audio, touch, taste, balance), motoric (such as moving a finger, arm, leg, blinking, breathing, hartbeating), acquired skill (swimming, bicycling, driving, juggling, singing, dancing, writing, coding, playing chess).
- At some point the human subject may stop thinking, and eventually dead at the end of the experiment.
I think we can safely argue that losing some of those abilities reduces consciousness of the human subject. On the other hand, restoring those abilities also restores consciousness, even if the method used to restore it doesn't make the brain structure exactly the same as before the experiment. If the experiment is continued to add some new ability which was not exist in the original human subject (e.g. seeing in infrared spectra, performing one arm push up, translating Chinese, computing advanced Algebra), we can say that his/her consciousness has increased.
Quote
Yann Le Cun, John S. Denker and Sara A. Sol1a
AT&T Bell Laboratories, Holmdel, N. J. 07733
ABSTRACT
We have used information-theoretic ideas to derive a class of practical and nearly optimal schemes for adapting the size of a neural
network. By removing unimportant weights from a network, several improvements can be expected: better generalization, fewer
training examples required, and improved speed of learning and/or
classification. The basic idea is to use second-derivative information to make a tradeoff between network complexity and training
set error. Experiments confirm the usefulness of the methods on a
real-world application.
1 INTRODUCTION
Most successful applications of neural network learning to real-world problems have
been achieved using highly structured networks of rather large size [for example
(Waibel, 1989; Le Cun et al., 1990a)]. As applications become more complex, the
networks will presumably become even larger and more structured. Design tools
and techniques for comparing different architectures and minimizing the network
size will be needed. More importantly, as the number of parameters in the systems
increases, overfitting problems may arise, with devastating effects on the
generalization performance. We introduce a new technique called Optimal Brain Damage
(OBD) for reducing the size of a learning network by selectively deleting weights.
We show that OBD can be used both as an automatic network minimization
procedure and as an interactive tool to suggest better architectures.
The basic idea of OBD is that it is possible to take a perfectly reasonable network,
delete half (or more) of the weights and wind up with a network that works just as
well, or better. It can be applied in situations where a complicated problem must be
solved, and the system must make optimal use of a limited amount of training
data. It is known from theory (Denker et al., 1987; Baum and Haussler, 1989; Solla
et al., 1990) and experience (Le Cun, 1989) that, for a fixed amount of training
data, networks with too many weights do not generalize well. On the other hand.
networks with too few weights will not have enough power to represent the data
accurately. The best generalization is obtained by trading off the training error and
the network complexity.
https://towardsdatascience.com/can-you-remove-99-of-a-neural-network-without-losing-accuracy-915b1fab873b
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/06/2020 12:52:42
This realization brings us to next question: what factors can contribute to the increase and decrease of consciousness?Among all of those abilities contributing to consciousness, the most prominent is thinking, especially abstract thinking, which makes homo sapiens successfully rule over other species on earth. Abstract thinking is indirection of simpler thinking, which is in turn indirection of instinct, which is in turn indirection of genetic expression.
We can revisit the thought experiment and imagine following situations:
- At some point, destroying one neuron doesn't change any measurable effect.
- At some point, destroying one neuron makes the human subject lose some memory.
- At some other point, he/she may lose some ability for numerical processing, verbal processing, or spatial processing.
- Other abilities that may be lost at some point of the experiment are sensing (visual, audio, touch, taste, balance), motoric (such as moving a finger, arm, leg, blinking, breathing, hartbeating), acquired skill (swimming, bicycling, driving, juggling, singing, dancing, writing, coding, playing chess).
- At some point the human subject may stop thinking, and eventually dead at the end of the experiment.
With this ability, humans become more effective at making and executing plans. Lack of physical abilities can be compensated by creating tools. The tools are getting better and even started to compensate lack of mental abilities. Those mental tools can improve exponentially. So if someday we find an alien society much more intelligent than us, they are more likely achieve that superior intelligence through indirection of thinking through computational tools rather than traditional evolutionary process.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2020 08:38:33
https://www.quantamagazine.org/a-self-aware-fish-raises-doubts-about-a-cognitive-test-20181212/
Quote
little blue-and-black fish swims up to a mirror. It maneuvers its body vertically to reflect its belly, along with a brown mark that researchers have placed on its throat. The fish then pivots and dives to strike its throat against the sandy bottom of its tank with a glancing blow. Then it returns to the mirror. Depending on which scientists you ask, this moment represents either a revolution or a red herring.
Alex Jordan, an evolutionary biologist at the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Germany, thinks this fish — a cleaner wrasse — has just passed a classic test of self-recognition. Scientists have long thought that being able to recognize oneself in a mirror reveals some sort of self-awareness, and perhaps an awareness of others’ perspectives, too. For almost 50 years, they have been using mirrors to test animals for that capacity. After letting an animal get familiar with a mirror, they put a mark someplace on the animal’s body that it can see only in its reflection. If the animal looks in the mirror and then touches or examines the mark on its body, it passes the test.
Humans don’t usually reach this milestone until we’re toddlers. Very few other species ever pass the test; those that do are mostly or entirely big-brained mammals such as chimpanzees. And yet as reported in a study that appeared on bioRxiv.org earlier this year and that is due for imminent publication in PLOS Biology, Jordan and his co-authors observed this seemingly self-aware behavior in a tiny fish.
Jordan’s findings have consequently inspired strong feelings in the field. “There are researchers who, it seems, do not want fish to be included in this secret club,” he said. “Because then that means that the [primates] are not so special anymore.”
If a fish passes the mirror test, Jordan said, “either you have to accept that the fish is self-aware, or you have to accept that maybe this test is not testing for that.” The correct explanation may be a little of both. Some animals’ mental skills may be more impressive than we imagined, while the mirror test may say less than we thought. Moving forward in our understanding of animal minds might mean shattering old ideas about the mirror test and designing new experiments that take into account each species’ unique perspective on the world.
Quote
“Recognition of one’s own reflection would seem to require a rather advanced form of intellect,” Gallup wrote in 1970. “These data would seem to qualify as the first experimental demonstration of a self-concept in a subhuman form.”
Either a species shows self-awareness or it doesn’t, as Gallup describes it — and most don’t. “And that’s prompted a lot of people to spend a lot of time trying to devise ways to salvage the intellectual integrity of their favorite laboratory animals,” he told me.
But Reiss and other researchers think self-awareness is more likely to exist on a continuum. In a 2005 study, the Emory University primatologist Frans de Waal and his co-authors showed that capuchin monkeys make more eye contact with a mirror than they do with a strange monkey behind Plexiglas. This could be a kind of intermediate result between self-awareness and its lack: A capuchin doesn’t seem to understand the reflection is itself, but it also doesn’t treat the reflection as a stranger.
Scientists also have mixed feelings about the phrase “self-awareness,” for which they don’t agree on a definition. Reiss thinks the mirror test shows “one aspect of self-awareness,” as opposed to the whole cognitive package a human has. The biologists Marc Bekoff of the University of Colorado, Boulder, and Paul Sherman of Cornell University have suggested a spectrum of “self-cognizance” that ranges from brainless reflexes to a humanlike understanding of the self.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2020 08:45:08
https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/finding-purpose/201807/the-physical-evolution-consciousness
Quote
Do you think of yourself as having a brain or being a brain? Can you conceive of your mind, your personality, your self, as entirely and only the product of your physical brain? The mind seems non-physical, ethereal and spiritual. The intuitive sense that mind and brain are separate entities can be hard to shake. But, what we know from science is that the mind comes from the brain and nothing but the brain. The mind is what the brain does. Any theory that does not begin with this assumption would necessarily imply that practically all the rest of modern science is fundamentally incorrect.
The physical basis of consciousness is a guiding principle behind a great many practical and effective treatments for mental illnesses. Daily, I witness the subtle or dramatic effects of varying degrees of disturbance of brain functioning on the ‘mind’ or ‘personality.’ I also witness the beneficial cognitive, emotional, and behavioral effects of physically based medical treatments1. There is no aspect of the mind, the personality, the ‘self,’ or the ‘will’ that is not completely susceptible to chemical influences or physical diseases that disrupt neuronal circuitry.
If you have ever had someone close to you suffer from gradually progressive dementia, serious head injury, or a variety of other forms of brain damage or serious mental disorder, then you have witnessed the disruption or a kind of ‘disassembly’ of the mind—and of the person or personality you once knew. Such a change highlights how the mind is entirely a product of the physical brain and is dependent on intact neural circuitry.
Quote
There are gradations of conscious self-awareness in humans at different levels of early development, in people with different levels of impairment of brain function, and in animals at different levels of evolutionary complexity.5
We are the sum of all our complex, dynamically interconnected brain networks. We are composed of a lifetime of remembered experiences, knowledge, learned behaviors and habits. We are all of that information, physically embodied in the total network’s connections, recursively reflecting on itself in a cybernetic loop. We are organized matter. Information is physical and humans are a dynamic network of information.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/06/2020 16:01:42
Like any other systems, an agent can be broken down into three main parts: input, process, and output.As a system engineer, I have to deal with various kind of systems, from a very simple mechanic devices such as weighted lid, spring, lever, to electropneumatic valves, various kind of sensors, analog controller, electromechanical relay logic controller, PLC, DCS, SIS, PIMS, SCADA, to complex analytical equipment involving artificial neural network. One feature comes up as common characteristic of those systems: they are intended to minimize error, which is the discrepancy between setpoint and process value. For a simple process we can use first order method to find a local minimum of error function, such as gradient descent. For more complex systems we can combine several simpler systems in cascade configuration, parallel/multiparameter control, or both. In cascade control, output of one system is fed to input of the next system. While in multiparameter control, a system takes several parameters at once as its inputs, each parameter contribute to the output according to their respected weight value. This combination resembles an artificial neural network.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/77/OpenSystemRepresentation.svg/378px-OpenSystemRepresentation.svg.png)
Conscious agents get information from their inputs to build a simplified model of their current surrounding environment. The model is then processed by the system's core using some algorithm/function involving current inputs, memorized previous inputs, some internal/built in parameters, as well as current and memorized previous outputs.
An efficient system must use minimum resource to achieve target. One way to do that is by data compression. The agent's environment is continuously changing, hence the data from the input parts must also change accordingly. Memorized previous inputs then would accumulate from time to time. Without data compression, the memory would be depleted in no time.
Another way is by discarding unnecessary/insignificant data. Data that don't have impact to the result must be removed and overwritten in the memory.
Yet another way to become an efficient system is by resource and load sharing. A multicellular organim is basically a collection of cells that work together for common goals, which are to survive and thrive. They develop specialized tissues, which means some cells develop some functions to be more effective at doing some task while abandoning other functions to save resource and be more efficient. Not every cell has to be photosensitive, and not every cell has to develop hard shell to provide protection.
Quote
Multicellularity allows an organism to exceed the size limits normally imposed by diffusion: single cells with increased size have a decreased surface-to-volume ratio and have difficulty absorbing sufficient nutrients and transporting them throughout the cell. Multicellular organisms thus have the competitive advantages of an increase in size without its limitations. They can have longer lifespans as they can continue living when individual cells die. Multicellularity also permits increasing complexity by allowing differentiation of cell types within one organism.
The necessity of data compression becomes more apparent the higher the conscience level of the agent is. It's even become inevitable for Laplace's demon. Without data compression, all matter in universe will be used up as memory modelling the universe itself in current state, leaving nothing for input and output parts. Without input and output, an agent can not execute its plan.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/46/Colored_neural_network.svg/280px-Colored_neural_network.svg.png)
To escape from being stuck in a local minimum, a system needs some flexibility to temporarily violate the rule of gradient descent. A complex system may reach some regional minima, but to reach a global minimum, the system must have complexity proportional to the complexity of its domain/problem space.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/68/Extrema_example_original.svg/220px-Extrema_example_original.svg.png)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/07/2020 13:09:00
This combination resembles an artificial neural network.Increasing complexity of a system can be done by adding hidden layers as well as adding nodes in some layers. Additional layer usually provide more flexibility to deal with less predictable patterns, while adding nodes usually can increase resolution/precision. These factors should be considered while setting the hyperparameters of the network.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/07/2020 10:26:44
In other word, the universal terminal goal is to protect conscious being from existential threats. The death of the last conscious being means that there could be no goals anymore and everything becomes indifferent.Keeping the existence of the last conscious being.
Please remind me, in one paragraph, of your universal terminal goal, and whether we agreed on it!
Any conscious being can be considered as a modified copy of it, hence there is some value in keeping their existence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/07/2020 09:56:39
https://www.quantamagazine.org/what-is-an-individual-biology-seeks-clues-in-information-theory-20200716/
Quote
The task of distinguishing individuals can be difficult — and not just for scientists aiming to make sense of a fragmented fossil record. Researchers searching for life on other planets or moons are bound to face the same problem. Even on Earth today, it’s clear that nature has a sloppy disregard for boundaries: Viruses rely on host cells to make copies of themselves. Bacteria share and swap genes, while higher-order species hybridize. Thousands of slime mold amoebas cooperatively assemble into towers to spread their spores. Worker ants and bees can be nonreproductive members of social-colony “superorganisms.” Lichens are symbiotic composites of fungi and algae or cyanobacteria. Even humans contain at least as many bacterial cells as “self” cells, the microbes in our gut inextricably linked with our development, physiology and survival.
Quote
Krakauer and Flack, in collaboration with colleagues such as Nihat Ay of the Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, realized that they’d need to turn to information theory to formalize their principle of the individual “as kind of a verb.” To them, an individual was an aggregate that “preserved a measure of temporal integrity,” propagating a close-to-maximal amount of information forward in time.Their result is similar to my posts which discuss about consciousness.
Their formalism, which they published in Theory in Biosciences in March, is based on three axioms. One is that individuality can exist at any level of biological organization, from the subcellular to the social. A second is that individuality can be nested — one individual can exist inside another. The most novel (and perhaps most counterintuitive) axiom, though, is that individuality exists on a continuum, and entities can have quantifiable degrees of it.
“This isn’t some binary function that suddenly has a jump,” said Chris Kempes, a physical biologist at the Santa Fe Institute who was not involved in the work. To him as a physicist, that’s part of the appeal of the Santa Fe team’s theory. The emphasis on quantifying over categorizing is something biology could use more of, he thinks — in part because it gets around tricky definitional problems about, say, whether a virus is alive, and whether it’s an individual. “The question really is: How living is a virus?” he said. “How much individuality does a virus have?”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2020 06:08:11
Even if we restrict individuality to only include biological entities, we still face problems, e.g:
- people with multiple personality disorder.
- conjoined twins
- double headed animals
- half brained person (e.g. the other half has been removed due to a disease)
- biological colony https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_(biology)#Modular_organisms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pando_(tree)
- symbionts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lichen
- parasites
- cancer cells
- organelles
How should we count the number of individus when being presented with those things? The problem arise if we treat individuality as a discrete thing. Using the concept of individuality as mentioned in my previous post can help solve this problem.
If we look back to biological evolutionary process, multicellular organisms are products of cells letting go some of their individuality to form a bigger system which gains some individuality. Those cells lose some basic functionalities so they can no longer survive when set free in an open environment. But they can develop special functionalities which are useful for the bigger system they are being part of, such as photosensitivity, nervous system, circulatory system, armor for protection, food digestion, chemical weaponry. Similar story also happened when ancestor of mitochondria were engulfed by archaea to form eukaryotic organisms. Another similar story is the formation of ant or bee colonies.
The case of modern human has similarity too. Many of them have very specialised skill set which make no longer capable to survive in the wilderness for long duration. They depend on their society. How many people still grow/hunt their own food, build their own house, knit their own clothes, or heal their own wound?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2020 10:25:22
The problem of individuality is very important to clarify if we want to build argumentation about morality. People often limit their scope of individuality to commonly found cases, which are biological human individuals. Some have expanded its definition to include other biological animal. But very few seem to be willing to expand it further to other systems, such as non-biological entities.
Even if we restrict individuality to only include biological entities, we still face problems, e.g:
- people with multiple personality disorder.
- conjoined twins
- double headed animals
- half brained person (e.g. the other half has been removed due to a disease)
- biological colony https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colony_(biology)#Modular_organisms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pando_(tree)
- symbionts https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lichen
- parasites
- cancer cells
- organelles
How should we count the number of individus when being presented with those things? The problem arise if we treat individuality as a discrete thing. Using the concept of individuality as mentioned in my previous post can help solve this problem.
If we look back to biological evolutionary process, multicellular organisms are products of cells letting go some of their individuality to form a bigger system which gains some individuality. Those cells lose some basic functionalities so they can no longer survive when set free in an open environment. But they can develop special functionalities which are useful for the bigger system they are being part of, such as photosensitivity, nervous system, circulatory system, armor for protection, food digestion, chemical weaponry. Similar story also happened when ancestor of mitochondria were engulfed by archaea to form eukaryotic organisms. Another similar story is the formation of ant or bee colonies.
The case of modern human has similarity too. Many of them have very specialised skill set which make no longer capable to survive in the wilderness for long duration. They depend on their society. How many people still grow/hunt their own food, build their own house, knit their own clothes, or heal their own wound?
The case of modern human has similarity too. Many of them have very specialised skill set which make no longer capable to survive in the wilderness for long duration. They depend on their society. How many people still grow/hunt their own food, build their own house, knit their own clothes, or heal their own wound?This newsletter provides scientific evidence that supports the assertion above.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/the-human-brain-has-been-getting-smaller-since-the-stone-age?utm_source=dsctwitter
Quote
I don’t mean to alarm you, but the average human brain size is shrinking. And we can’t blame reality T.V. or Twitter.
No, this decline began tens of thousands of years ago. It’s something of a well-known secret among anthropologists: Based on measurements of skulls, the average brain volume of Homo sapiens has reportedly decreased by roughly 10 percent in the past 40,000 years. This reduction is a reversal of the trend of cranial expansion, which had been occurring in human evolution for millions of years prior
Quote
More convincing evidence for cranial decline comes from studies that applied the same measuring technique to hundreds or even thousands of skulls from a particular region across the millennia. For instance, a 1988 Human Biology paper analyzed more than 12,000 Homo sapiens crania from Europe and North African. It showed cranial capacity decreased in the past 10,000 years by about 10 percent (157 mL) in males and 17 percent (261 mL) in females. A similar reduction was found among skulls from elsewhere on the planet, including sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and Australia.
Quote
Explaining Our Cranial Decline
From every region with data, there seems to have been a roughly half cup decrease in endocranial volume that began when the Ice Age gave way to the Holocene, the most recent geological epoch, which is characterized by a comfortable, stable climate. Since this pattern was first noticed in the late 1980s, researchers have proposed a number of possible explanations.
Some say the decrease came from from a slight reduction in body size and robustness, related to the warmer conditions of the Holocene. Bigger bodies were better during the Ice Age, and then became disadvantageous as the climate warmed. But anthropologist John Hawks has countered this idea by showing that the documented brain reduction is too great to be explained by simply having slightly smaller bodies.
Other researchers point to the fact that brains are energetically costly organs. Though the modern human brain is only 2 percent of our body weight, it consumes almost one quarter our energy input. By inventing ways to store information externally — cave art, writing, digital media — humans were able to shed some brain bulk, according to one proposal.
But perhaps the most convincing hypothesis is that Homo sapiens underwent self-domestication, a proposal that stems from our understanding of animal domestication. Sheep, dogs and other domesticated species differ from their wild ancestors by a number of physical and behavioral traits. These include tameness, reduced timidity, juvenile appearance into adulthood and smaller brains.
Research has shown these traits, collectively known as the domestication syndrome, are influenced by the same hormones and genes. Humans selectively bred animals with these desirable features, creating today’s pets and livestock. The self-domestication hypothesis — or what anthropologist Brian Hare called “survival of the friendliest” — suggests we also did this to ourselves.
The idea is, within Stone Age societies, cooperative, level-headed individuals were more likely to survive and reproduce than combative, aggressive ones. Those pro- or anti-social inclinations were influenced by genes regulating hormones, which also affected physical traits, including body and brain size. Over time, “survival of the friendliest” led to humans with slighter builds and brains on average. So although there was a reduction in skull size — and possibly intelligence — human cooperation grew, cultivating greater collective wisdom. A few social smaller brains can surely outwit one lonely large noggin.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2020 10:55:40
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/08/2020 10:23:24
There are reasons why I used those words as the title of this thread.The importance of survival is universally accepted by any consious being, since they must have came from their predecessors who were survivors.
The term universal is to emphasize that the goal is applicable universally, including for aliens and artificial lives.
The term utopia is to show that in my opinion, the goal is still unachievable in foreseeable future.
Focusing too much to internal state while neglecting external condition can be fatal. Just see drug addicts who hack their brain chemistry just to feel good and happy regardless their surrounding reality.
As I discussed in another thread, I think that feelings, love, happiness, sadness, pain and pleasure are tools to help us getting better chance to survive. Only survivors can think/contemplate retrospectively.
Elon Musk shared his thought in Twitter which inspired him to make human a multiplanetary species.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1294917318405836802?s=03
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Filter
Quote
The Great Filter, in the context of the Fermi paradox, is whatever prevents non-living matter from undergoing abiogenesis, in time, to expanding lasting life as measured by the Kardashev scale.[1][2] The concept originates in Robin Hanson's argument that the failure to find any extraterrestrial civilizations in the observable universe implies the possibility something is wrong with one or more of the arguments from various scientific disciplines that the appearance of advanced intelligent life is probable; this observation is conceptualized in terms of a "Great Filter" which acts to reduce the great number of sites where intelligent life might arise to the tiny number of intelligent species with advanced civilizations actually observed (currently just one: human).[3] This probability threshold, which could lie behind us (in our past) or in front of us (in our future), might work as a barrier to the evolution of intelligent life, or as a high probability of self-destruction.[1][4] The main counter-intuitive conclusion of this observation is that the easier it was for life to evolve to our stage, the bleaker our future chances probably are.
The idea was first proposed in an online essay titled "The Great Filter - Are We Almost Past It?", written by economist Robin Hanson. The first version was written in August 1996 and the article was last updated on September 15, 1998. Since that time, Hanson's formulation has received recognition in several published sources discussing the Fermi paradox and its implications.
Quote
The most important thing is to keep the most important thing the most important thing.
– From the book “Foundation design”, by Coduto, Donald P.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/09/2020 07:46:08
When compared to chess analogy, the universal utopia can be paired as follow:Preserving resource seems to be the least controversial, most agreeable and easiest to evaluate, especially when comparing actions with the same result. Perhaps we can call it a universal instrumental goal. In philosophy, we get Occam's razor while in industry we get lean manufacturing from the same principle.
- Preventing checkmate on own king is like preventing currently existing conscious system from extinction. This rule is universal for any consceivable conscious system.
- Getting checkmate of the opponent's king is like getting a maximum consciousness level system. The maximum is infinite, hence the term utopia is used.
- Preserving time and energy is just like preserving available resource to achieve the goals above more efficiently, hence improve the probability of achieving those goals.
Post by: puppypower on 04/09/2020 14:07:56
On the other hand, the poor man does not have the money to use the external world to push his utopia buttons. He cannot afford all the things needed to makes this daily and perpetual. The poor man can save and get a short term utopian buzz, here and there. Instead he needs to find ways to make the best of his limited external situation. He needs to find a place, inside himself, where he can push his own utopian bottoms, so he can see and feel good, using only the simple and free things of life.
This approach does not need the same level of resources, as externally induced utopia. It could become universal, if enough people knew how to do it. However, it is easier to use the external prosthesis approach, based on money, since culture shows us the finer things. So people work hard to achieve that end, but with most falling short of full scale individual or universal utopia.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/09/2020 04:15:00
One way to look at universal utopia is by contrasting rich versus poor. If you were independently wealthy and rich, you can buy or rent aspects of external reality to help push your utopian buttons. You can eat the finest food so you can stimulate you taste buds for pleasure and joy. You can travel the world to stimulate you visual senses with awe. You can hire others to simply agree with you and tell you, that you are so great. You can migrate, house to house, on an annual cycle, so the climate is always the way you like it. This may work in terms of personal utopia. However, the problem is there are not enough resources for everyone to do this and make it universal. It can lead to individual utopia, but not universal.You need to clarify the definition of rich and poor here. Is it measured by the amount of money? Is there something else? Which one is poorer: someone who owns nothing, or someone who owe billions of dollars?
On the other hand, the poor man does not have the money to use the external world to push his utopia buttons. He cannot afford all the things needed to makes this daily and perpetual. The poor man can save and get a short term utopian buzz, here and there. Instead he needs to find ways to make the best of his limited external situation. He needs to find a place, inside himself, where he can push his own utopian bottoms, so he can see and feel good, using only the simple and free things of life.
This approach does not need the same level of resources, as externally induced utopia. It could become universal, if enough people knew how to do it. However, it is easier to use the external prosthesis approach, based on money, since culture shows us the finer things. So people work hard to achieve that end, but with most falling short of full scale individual or universal utopia.
You may wonder that currently, the income difference between the richests and poorests people are getting higher than ever. There are at least two reasons for that.
First, advancement in technology creates a lot of new resources which are previously inaccessible. We can produce more food than we need.
Second, people have adopted systems which enable accumulation of wealth to few persons. Income that they've got from previous efforts can be used to generate more income with less effort.
In ancient times, humans can only access limited amount of resources from the earth to support their life. People at the bottom of economic charts would simply die off while those at the top can only accumulate limited amount of resources. Today, some of the poorests can rely on social security to keep them alive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/09/2020 04:42:36
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Bitcoin was officially born in January 2009, when a person or group going by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto released the open source code for the software.https://medium.com/luno-money/who-invented-bitcoin-de30211a584
Nakamoto mined the very first block of the first blockchain and left what has been variously interpreted as a statement, a clue, or a means of marking the date:‘The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.’
This is obviously a reference to a headline in The Times newspaper from that date. While it’s possible that Nakamoto just picked the first headline they saw on the nearest newspaper, and it was totally random, cryptocurrency enthusiasts tend to unanimously see it as a statement of intent. At the time, the 2008 financial crisis was still unravelling.
It’s assumed that Bitcoin was, at least in part, a reaction to the widespread anger and frustration at the existing financial system.
I have discussed about money and economy in previous posts in this thread, in case you missed that.
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=71347.msg588888#msg588888
But let me make following assertion and let it sink for a moment. If everyone is self sufficient, noone needs money.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/09/2020 13:12:05
Lex Fridman's conversation with Manolis. Manolis Kellis is a professor at MIT and head of the MIT Computational Biology Group. Here's the outline:
0:00 - Introduction
6:20 - Epigenome
10:28 - Evolution
15:26 - Neanderthals
27:15 - Origin of life on Earth
43:44 - Life is a fight against physics
49:56 - Life as a set of transformations
51:35 - Time scales
1:00:31 - Transformations of ideas in human civilization
1:05:19 - Life is more than a rat race
1:13:18 - Life sucks sometimes and that's okay
1:30:16 - Getting older
1:36:21 - The best of MIT
1:49:01 - Poem 1: The Snow
2:01:52 - Love
2:06:16 - Poem 2: The Tide Waters
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/10/2020 07:12:32
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Could artificial intelligence ever gain true consciousness? This documentary explores what might unfold if super intelligent AI acquired consciousness, how it might see itself, and what it’s impact might be on our world and beyond.It discuss about consciousness and individualism which play central roles in determining the universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/10/2020 09:13:13
I have described consciousness in this thread as well as my other threads discussing about universal terminal goal.In my previous posts I've also mentioned another requirement for consciousness which is relevant to morality, which is having internal/subjective preferences. It would follow that conscious systems have the capacity to build two virtual maps internally, which are described in is and ought problem, or known as Hume's guillotine.
Since they haven't seem enough, here is a simplified description by stating absolute minimum requirements for a system to be called conscious.
- It has internal structures which represent states of itself and its environment.
- That internal structures can change according to the change of the environment.
Another criteria for a conscious system is the capacity to manipulate its environment, which is represented in "is map" in its memory system to get closer to its "ought map", which is affected by its internal/subjective preferences.
The role of moral rules with reward and punishment are then to modify internal/subjective preferences of conscious systems to make them aligned with the goal of larger systems they are being part of (e.g. their family, tribe, company, nation). Primitive forms of those manipulation are done by inflicting pain and pleasure which can be directly felt. The next forms are done by causing fear and giving hope, which can only work for conscious systems with capability of understanding cause and effect, so they can predict/anticipate future condition when some information about the present is given.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/10/2020 09:20:49
Preserving resource seems to be the least controversial, most agreeable and easiest to evaluate, especially when comparing actions with the same result. Perhaps we can call it a universal instrumental goal. In philosophy, we get Occam's razor while in industry we get lean manufacturing from the same principle.
Through out history, innovations tend to reduce cost to achieve particular goals. Steam engines, tractors, automatic electronic switchboards all reduce labor costs in manufacturing, agriculture, and telecommunication sectors. Robotaxi will soon make taxi drivers obsolete. Self driving trucks will soon make truck drivers obsolete. AI can already outperform investment managers. OpenAI's GPT-3 can already write codes is different programming languages. No job is really secure from threat of AI. But then again, jobs are just instrumental goal.
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Some quotes from Elon Musk in the presentation:https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21109554
"If the schedule is long it's wrong, if it's tight its right."
"The best part is no part."
"The best process is no process."
If the trend continuous, we will get rid of most non-essential burdens. Any system that refuse to follow suit will be outcompeted by those who do. No phone company can survive by retaining human switchboard operators.
Some instrumental goals might by suitable for particular time and conditions. At another time and place, other instrumental goals might be better. Only a universal terminal goal can never change.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/10/2020 15:20:08
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2019/11/28/indonesia-to-replace-ministerial-aides-with-ai.html
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President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has said the government will replace some civil service positions with artificial intelligence, instructing ministers to remove two ranks of public servants.
“I have ordered ministers to replace echelon III and IV officials with AI [because] our bureaucracy will be faster with AI, but it would depend on the omnibus law,” the president said in Jakarta on Thursday, adding that doing so would cut red tape.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/10/2020 06:51:59
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Problem_of_universals
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The problem of universals is an ancient question from metaphysics which has inspired a range of philosophical topics and disputes. Should the properties an object has in common with other objects, such as colour and shape, be considered to exist beyond those objects? And if a property exists separately from objects, what is the nature of that existence?[1]
The problem of universals relates to various inquiries closely related to metaphysics, logic, and epistemology, as far back as Plato and Aristotle, in efforts to define the mental connections a human makes when they understand a property such as shape or colour to be the same in nonidentical objects.[2]
Universals are qualities or relations found in two or more entities.[3] As an example, if all cup holders are circular in some way, circularity may be considered a universal property of cup holders.[4] Further, if two daughters can be considered female offspring of Frank, the qualities of being female, offspring, and of Frank, are universal properties of the two daughters. Many properties can be universal:- being human, red, male or female, liquid or solid, big or small, etc.[5]
Philosophers agree that human beings can talk and think about universals, but disagree on whether universals exist in reality beyond mere thought and speech.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/10/2020 23:03:28
1. Set up the criteria to determine if the goal is achieved.
2. Check relevant parameters of current condition.
3. Compare those parameters with criteria of goal achievement.
4. If the criteria aren't met, then something must change, and loop back to step 2.
5. Otherwise, stop.
If the effort involves intermediate or instrumental goals, then modifying them is part of step 4. Terminal goals never change.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/10/2020 05:04:03
Here is a universal algorithm to achieve a goal.Let's try to use the algorithm for the case of universal terminal goal.
1. Set up the criteria to determine if the goal is achieved.
2. Check relevant parameters of current condition.
3. Compare those parameters with criteria of goal achievement.
4. If the criteria aren't met, then something must change, and loop back to step 2.
5. Otherwise, stop.
If the effort involves intermediate or instrumental goals, then modifying them is part of step 4. Terminal goals never change.
1. Bring down existential threats of conscious system to 0.
2. List down known existential threats, either natural or otherwise artificial. E.g. super volcano, asteroid impact, gamma ray burst, the sun goes red giant, nuclear war, AGI goes berserk.
3. Check if those threats are manageable/avoidable. With current technology, many threats are still out of control.
4. Plan and do changes to control residual risks. Update the list of existential threats, back to step 2.
One of foremost efforts in step 4 is reducing dependency of civilization on a single planet.
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-reveals-blue-origin-future-space-plans-2019-5
https://www.geekwire.com/2019/blue-moon-beyond-jeff-bezos-plans-take-civilization-space-starting-lunar-colony/
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It’s our choice: a finite world with limited resources, or an infinite universe with unlimited potential. Those were the options presented by Jeff Bezos this week he laid out his plan to colonize the Moon as a first step toward a future with as many as a trillion people in space.Other notable efforts are merging human intelligence with artificial intelligence through direct brain connection, and perhaps future genome modifications to make civilization more suitable to live in space or other planets.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/11/2020 10:24:09
But to find global minimum/maximum (extrema), an algorithm needs the ability to get free from being stuck at local extrema. It means the necessity to violate the rules of gradient descend/ascend, at least temporarily to find a higher local maximum or lower local minimum.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/11/2020 22:22:50
A method to prevent being stuck in a local minima is using a low pass filter to smooth out the reward/utility function prior to applying gradient descent. It helps overcoming local barriers, but requires some sort of memory storage to keep the filtered contour. It's essentially building a simplified model of reality, just like virtual universe that I discuss in another thread.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/11/2020 22:04:11
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/11/2020 02:13:54
Post by: puppypower on 04/11/2020 15:22:47
This affect has to do with the filters of consciousness changing. To the lover, the beloved is the most beautiful person, even if they are not so. There is no need to change the outer world with plastic surgery if the inner world has changed. Utopian places like heaven are based on the love filter for perception.
When the brain creates memory, emotional tags are added to the sensory content, when it is written to the cerebral matter. Our memory has both content and emotional valance tags. For example, when we "feel" hungry at lunch, memories of food will appear in the imagination. Alternately, if we see a food item we like on the menu, the feeling of hunger will often appear, since these two were connected, during memory writing processes. This schema is useful to the animal, since they can react to the feelings created by the situation; memory induction, without having to think in terms of only sensory data. This speeds up their reaction time.
Although sensory data, from our five senses, has infinite variation and combinations, there are only a limited number of feeling tags used by the brain. Ss such, the feeling tags tend to be recycled and used on many memories with emotional similarity. For example, all the food we like, has the same l basic "like", tag.
The advantage of this is the memory is stored in holographic layers, throughout the brain, based on the tagging valance. When one falls in love, for example, love; which is a limbic system induction, helps consciousness focus on that one memory layer. This layer then defines how we will perceive reality; rose colored glasses. By being distributed over the brain, we still have full control over the brain's full resources.
Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.
Does anyone remember the Russian collusion delusion scam? That scam caused many brains to be induced into memory layers populated and driven by hate and fear. This layer or the dark colored glasses is why associations between Hitler, Nuclear war and Trump all seem attached. These memories were all tagged the same way by natural and induced means. This made utopia more difficult for most, but seemed to benefit some.
The left is more about feeling, so the negative layer induction was reacted to like an animal, with feeling first, often without thinking; quick assessment. This was all by design. Thinking allows one to not reinforce the activated neural chemically induced layer, so it can fade or be changed. Even the rational become irrational when the layers are switched on. Leaning how this works is important to universal utopia.
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/11/2020 18:25:41
The advantage of this is the memory is stored in holographic layersNot really.
Does anyone remember the Russian collusion delusion scam?No
I remember that the evidence showed collusion with Russia.
If memory serves, 5 people were found guilty as a result of the investigation.
This layer or the dark colored glasses is why associations between Hitler, Nuclear war and Trump all seem attached.No
The link between Trump and Hitler is simple; racism.
There are, of course, other parallels- like voter intimidation.
The left is more about feeling,No, it's not.
Most scientists, for example, are Left wing.
The Right is full of nutters who believe things like homeopathy- because "it feels right".
It's the left who have a grasp of logic.
The Right just lie a lot.
Hint; they didn't build a wall and Mexico didn't pay for it.
This was all by design.Whose?
Even the rational become irrational when the layers are switched onIs that why you think that a 30% drop in the economy is the best it has done, or do you have some other reason to be irrational?
Leaning how this works is important to universal utopia.You have much to learn. The first thing you need to learn is that listening to fox news makes you less well informed.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/11/2020 14:03:44
Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.Is it the terminal goal of politics? Why achieving that goal is preferred over not achieving it?
If it's just an instrumental goal, what is its terminal goal? Are there alternatives of instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goal?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/11/2020 22:12:36
For now I'll assume that your silence means that you have realized that what you wrote was just a statistical fluke based on your personal experience, not the fundamental truth. Feel free to refute my assumption.Politics is often about mud slinging and other forms negativity. The goal is to induce a different memory layer for use by consciousness, so we will see what that layers wants us to see; dark glasses. This is not good for utopia.Is it the terminal goal of politics? Why achieving that goal is preferred over not achieving it?
If it's just an instrumental goal, what is its terminal goal? Are there alternatives of instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goal?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/11/2020 22:22:58
In the case of universal utopia, where the goal is to reduce the risk of existential threat down to zero, we will focus more on finding minima of the risk function and make progress using gradient descent.Becoming modern humans is one of the changes done by our ancestors to enable us identify terminal goals. That is preceded by subsequent genetic changes shaped by evolutionary process, such as merging of chromosome #2, becoming primates, mammals, chordates, multicellular organisms, eukaryotes, respectively in reverse order.
A method to prevent being stuck in a local minima is using a low pass filter to smooth out the reward/utility function prior to applying gradient descent. It helps overcoming local barriers, but requires some sort of memory storage to keep the filtered contour. It's essentially building a simplified model of reality, just like virtual universe that I discuss in another thread.
There were also behavioral changes such as establishing effective communication and cooperation, using tools, being bipedal, coming out of water, reproduce sexually, and so on.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/11/2020 10:23:32
The changes can be classified into two basic types: random and directed changes, which can be divided further into positive and negative changes. In simple models of optimization, we use gradient descent to find local minima or gradient ascent for local maxima.Random changes can be seen as high risk-high gain strategy, while directed changes can be seen as a more conservative and safer option. But if at some moment we are stuck at a local minimum and any small steps in every direction give out worst result than current situation, the random changes can be a better alternative solution.
But to find global minimum/maximum (extrema), an algorithm needs the ability to get free from being stuck at local extrema. It means the necessity to violate the rules of gradient descend/ascend, at least temporarily to find a higher local maximum or lower local minimum.
Here is the example in genetic changes.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03061-x
How evolution builds genes from scratch
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In the depths of winter, water temperatures in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean can sink below zero. That’s cold enough to freeze many fish, but the conditions don’t trouble the cod. A protein in its blood and tissues binds to tiny ice crystals and stops them from growing.
Where codfish got this talent was a puzzle that evolutionary biologist Helle Tessand Baalsrud wanted to solve. She and her team at the University of Oslo searched the genomes of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and several of its closest relatives, thinking they would track down the cousins of the antifreeze gene. None showed up. Baalsrud, who at the time was a new parent, worried that her lack of sleep was causing her to miss something obvious.
But then she stumbled on studies suggesting that genes do not always evolve from existing ones, as biologists long supposed. Instead, some are fashioned from desolate stretches of the genome that do not code for any functional molecules. When she looked back at the fish genomes, she saw hints this might be the case: the antifreeze protein — essential to the cod’s survival — had seemingly been built from scratch1. By that point, another researcher had reached a similar conclusion.
Quote
Although de novo genes remain enigmatic, their existence makes one thing clear: evolution can readily make something from nothing. “One of the beauties of working with de novo genes,” says Casola, “is that it shows how dynamic genomes are.”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2020 23:56:47
To overcome the risk, they need to reproduce at high rate, so some of their copies might be lucky enough and survive. But that strategy needs a lot of resources, thus not an efficient strategy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/11/2020 09:05:36
Finally we get to the last question: how. There are some basic strategies to preserve information which I borrow from IT business:Organisms must allocate finite resources to those strategies optimally in order to maximize their chance of survival in ever changing environment. It brings in trade off situation which needs to be solved through trial and error, unless they have the proper information. This is where the need for building a virtual universe comes in. The virtualization makes the process of trial and error much more efficient and much faster.
Choosing robust media.
Creating multilayer protection.
Creating backups.
Create diversity to avoid common mode failures.
It starts with very simple sensing capabilities of their environment, such as light, temperature, or certain types of chemicals, so they can react to avoid danger or to eat food. Generally, the more complex the situation to handle, the deeper the layer of neural network is required. There are also some minimum number of nodes in each layer to be useful. It creates further problem for tuning the hyperparameters. In the end, the optimum results are decided by evolutionary process through natural selection.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/12/2020 01:21:04
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/12/2020 12:21:02
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.If humanity can achieve level 2 civilization in Kardashev scale, it's very likely we will find alien lifeform. If they are less intelligent than us, someone will ask why don't we just kill them all to gain access to their resources? On the other hand, if they turn out to be more intelligent than us, some of them will ask the same question about us.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
The risk from clash of civilization can be prevented by considering some reasonings from both sides as follow:
- Embracing diversity is one of proven methods to mitigate destruction of information, closing the weakness of identical backups which are prone to common mode failures.
- The other civilizations can potentially offer new knowledge and experience which can be useful to handle unexpected problems in the future.
- If both civilizations have similar level of intelligence, there is a risk of mutual total destruction. It would get us closer to the worst case scenario, which we must avoid at all cost.
Post by: Jolly2 on 03/12/2020 03:15:42
In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.
I find the question rather bizarre, are you suggesting an organism can become independent of reality?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/12/2020 10:07:01
No. My statement above means that organisms can manipulate their natural environment to make it more suitable for them to live. Outer space is lethal for most organisms, but humans with current technology can already live in space for more than a year, and possibly longer, which is done in ISS.In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.
I find the question rather bizarre, are you suggesting an organism can become independent of reality?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/12/2020 01:23:10
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.In many religious beliefs, the best case scenario above is taken for granted. So their efforts are never directed towards achieving that. Instead, they set arbitrarily chosen preferred conditions as their terminal goal.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
On the other hand, the worst case scenario is dismissed without adequate justification. This creates false security that whatever we do, it is guaranteed that the consequences will never bring that worse case scenario, so nothing is thought to be necessary to prevent it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/12/2020 04:43:02
As I've suspected, discussion about morality is more intense than the goal itself. So I'd like to bring the discussion about more fundamental concepts of information protection and consciousness which are not directly related to morality here instead. I hope we can be more focused and go deep into details with less distraction.IMO, the most fundamental concept in the most general sense is information protection, as I've mentioned earlier.Self awareness came later in the process.The minimum requirement for evolutionary process are duplication, mutation, and natural selection.
The most fundamental requirement is sufficient sefishness to survive. Then natural selection requires conscious or unconscious competitiveness, whether to outgrow the adjacent tree or fight for mating rights. Very few species apart from the social insects seem to have evolved collaboratively.For any true statement, there are infinitely many alternatives that are false.That information protection business applies broadly to any level of consciousness, from level 0 such as stones to infinity for Laplace's demon. Being hard as a diamond is a form of information protection. Being immersed in amber or buried under permafrost are some other methods. But those kind of protections are brittle. Some brief environmental changes can destroy them irreversibly. Some simple locomotion ability can often be effective in preventing the destruction.
Since the existence of the thinker is the only thing that can't be doubted, it must be defended at all cost.Finally we get to the last question: how. There are some basic strategies to preserve information which I borrow from IT business:The existence of a thinker is subject to natural selection.
Choosing robust media.
Creating multilayer protection.
Creating backups.
Create diversity to avoid common mode failures.
Thinkers who has backups tend to be better at survival than those who don't.
Thinkers who reproduce backups to replace the destroyed copies tend to survive better, otherwise, all of the copies will eventually break down.
Thinkers who actively protect their copies tend to survive better than those who don't.
Thinkers who produce better version of themselves at survival tend to survive better than who don't.
Evolution process can be viewed as trial and error to achieve balance among different methods to protect information. Its effectiveness has been resembled by genetic algorithm with much higher speed and efficiency.
Being conscious offers flexibility to choose the most effective strategy and shifting balance among various methods according to current and future environmental conditions.
Moral rules are methods to protect conscious beings from threats by other conscious beings. Threats coming from non-conscious beings are better handled using other methods.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/12/2020 06:11:53
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Elon Musk delivers an inspirational speech. Listen to the end for the most life changing quote of all-time. Don't let anyone ever tell you that you cannot achieve your dreams. Elon Musk has faced more failure than 99% of people on this planet, yet still pursues his dreams and believes in himself.Elon Musk's speech, especially from 9:35 mark in the video is getting very close to the universal utopia we've been discussing here.
On May 30th, SpaceX made a historic launch. Delivering 2 NASA astronauts to the International Space Station, and returning the rocket back to earth. Listen to one of the greatest minds to ever walk this earth!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/12/2020 09:22:01
Evolution process can be viewed as trial and error to achieve balance among different methods to protect information. Its effectiveness has been resembled by genetic algorithm with much higher speed and efficiency.A lot of progress were started by repurposing some existing parts for some new functions, and then modify them to become more efficient at performing those functions. In evolutionary biology for example, many forms of locomotion in tetrapods were developed from a common body plan.
Being conscious offers flexibility to choose the most effective strategy and shifting balance among various methods according to current and future environmental conditions.
Moral rules are methods to protect conscious beings from threats by other conscious beings. Threats coming from non-conscious beings are better handled using other methods.
In engineering, many prototypes were first developed using general purpose components. When the proof of concept is successfully demonstrated, the next step is to make the system more efficient by removing unnecessary functionality, and replacement with more specialized components.
In computer technology, GPU, FPU, and ALU serve specific types of computation to be done more efficiently than CPU.
In pre-computer era, the only effective computational tool was brain. In prehistoric era, brain memory was the only effective dynamic data storage.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/12/2020 05:12:59
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/12/2020 10:56:21
The most important thing is to keep the most important thing the most important thing.The quote above summarizes the universal terminal goal poetically.
– From the book “Foundation design”, by Coduto, Donald P.
In this thread I've approached the question from deductive as well as inductive reasonings.
Deductive reasoning forces us to precisely define the meaning of each word that makes up the concept of universal terminal goal. They lead us to refine the concept of consciousness, which is required for a goal to exist at all.
Inductive reasoning starts from collecting as many examples of goals currently known, and then classify and sort them based on their universality and terminality. Subsequent steps of generalization lead us to some goals wich are widely applicable and nearly universal. But at some point, further generalization will make our goal lose it's meaning, and gives us nihilism. The point just before that is the answer we are looking for.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/01/2021 10:51:26
IMO, economy is about resource management, including generation, distribution, and consumption to help achieving the terminal goal effectively and efficiently. Generally the resource distribution is regulated by currency, which can be some form of energy, matter, or information. Its main function is to prevent the system from collapse because all resources are exploited by some kind of insatiable utility monsters.Establishing good economy, just like with morality, is an instrumental goal to achieve longer term goal, which eventually leads to a terminal goal. Self sustaining community where its members can independently produce their own needs have 0 economy. It's not necessarily a bad thing.How do you measure the economy?"The economy" is all the money that changes hands, plus an estimate of the monetary value of bartered goods. A significant proportion of The Economy is money spent on illegal drugs (estimated) and prostitution (increasingly accurate as the profession becomes unionised and employs accountants - nobody wants to be imprisoned for tax evasion). It has nothing to do with morality, productivity (20% of UK GNP is taken up in mortgage payments for secondhand houses) or standard of living.
A chemical compound named ATP is often referred to as the energy currency of the cell and can be compared to storing money in a bank. ATP can be used to store energy for future reactions or be withdrawn to pay for reactions when energy is required by the cell. Animals store the energy obtained from the breakdown of food as ATP.
Physical currency, including bank notes work as media of distributed calculations performed by each economic agents.
The real currency in crypto is the energy required to perform the calculations as proof of work to confirm transactions.
Even simple multicellular organisms show some apparent economic awareness using electrochemical signalling as currency.
Here is a great video titled How Did Multicellularity Evolve? by Journey to the Microcosmos. It shows some examples of increase in effectiveness and efficiency through specialization.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/01/2021 12:09:48
Reducing distribution costs can increase overall efficiency, by producing the resources locally. Locally generated electricity from solar cells and advanced 3d printing technology can help solving this issue. Imagine if we can 3d print all goods we need to survive, including synthetic foods made from materials available around us.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/01/2021 06:36:59
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/01/2021 09:42:12
Some main points I get from the videos are:
- Autopilot builds a virtual universe in its memory space to represent its surrounding environment based on data input from its sensors.
- Modular concepts are employed to increase efficiency, so many things don't have to start from scratch again everytime new feature is added.
- Building the virtual universe is done in real time which means a lot of new data is acquired, hence a lot of older data must be discarded. Therefore, to make the system work, it must compress the incoming data into meaningful and useful concepts, after filtering out noises and insignificant information.
- Those data selection requires data hierarchy like deep believe network I mentioned earlier. Higher level information (believe) determine which data from lower level believe nodes to be kept and used or discarded and ignored. It's similar to how human brain works. That's why sometimes we find it hard to convince people by simply presenting facts that contradict their existing believe system, such as flat earthers, MAGA crowd, or religious fanatics.
- The automation process is kept being automated, up into several levels of automation. We are building machines that build machines that build machines, and so on, as Ray Kurzweil called indirection. And those machines are getting better at achieveing their goals put into them. That's why it's getting more urgent for us to find a universal terminal goal, as I discuss in another thread.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/01/2021 22:10:11
The article shows an example which can support hypothesis that gut microbiome is part of individual organisms, since it determines their behavior.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/01/2021 22:41:02
https://scitechdaily.com/scientists-use-physics-to-understand-the-mystery-of-consciousness/amp/
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Physics
Scientists Use Physics to Understand the Mystery of Consciousness
By Monash University on Jun 07, 2020
The study is potentially applicable to humans and reflects a growing interest in new theories of consciousness that are experimentally testable.
An international study involving Monash physicists has confirmed a new approach to measure consciousness, potentially changing our understanding complex neurological problems.
The study published yesterday in Physical Review Research describes how tools from physics and complexity theory were used to determine the level of consciousness in fruit flies.
“This is a major problem in neuroscience, where it is crucial to differentiate between unresponsive vegetative patients and those suffering from a condition in which a patient is aware but cannot move or communicate verbally because of complete paralysis of nearly all voluntary muscles in the body,” said study author Dr. Kavan Modi, from the Monash University School of Physics and Astronomy.
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The research team studied the brain signals produced by 13 fruit flies both when they were awake and when they were anesthetized. They then analyzed the signals to see how complex they were.
“We found the statistical complexity to be larger when a fly is awake than when the same fly is anesthetized,” Dr. Modi said.
“This is important because it suggests a reliable way to determine the level of conscious arousal by tapping into a small region of the brain, rather than many parts of the brain.
“It also suggests that there is a clear marker of conscious arousal that does not depend on specific external stimuli.”
The researchers concluded that applying a similar analysis to other datasets, in particular, human EEG data could lead to new discoveries regarding the relationship between consciousness and complexity.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/01/2021 21:26:44
The parts of this superorganism are not limited to physical bodies of homo sapiens, but include everything else that supporting its existence, such as their microbiome, food chains, infrastructures, institutions, and knowledge.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/01/2021 22:25:25
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/01/2021 04:32:50
Another way is by merging with non-human beings. According to Symbiogenesis, the origin of eukaryotic cells including human cells are from the merge of formerly free-living prokaryotes. Many currently living humans are product of interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans. Neuralink aims to merge humans with machines to improve their information processing capability.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/01/2021 15:14:11
Even though harmful mutations have higher chance to occur than the beneficial ones, the risk can be countered by higher reproduction rate. But that means many individuals must be sacrificed to accumulate genetic improvements, which is not an efficient strategy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/01/2021 01:55:26
Just in case I haven't made it clear yet, when I said that currently known best chance to achieve the universal terminal goal is through improvement of humanity, I meant it as a superorganism, rather than human individuals. Individually, there's nothing much can be done compared to other life forms.The whole process that produced current human civilization is essentially an accumulation of organized information. Only by continuing this process we will be able to achieve the universal terminal goal.
The parts of this superorganism are not limited to physical bodies of homo sapiens, but include everything else that supporting its existence, such as their microbiome, food chains, infrastructures, institutions, and knowledge.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/01/2021 04:53:32
Nowadays, senescence and degenerative diseases sound like stupid design. But back then, they were important mechanisms to enforce genetic changes, hence opening the chance for genetic improvement.This inefficiency can be countered by sexual reproduction. Specimens containing harmful mutations will find it harder to reproduce. They may not even live long enough into maturity.
Even though harmful mutations have higher chance to occur than the beneficial ones, the risk can be countered by higher reproduction rate. But that means many individuals must be sacrificed to accumulate genetic improvements, which is not an efficient strategy.
Sexual reproduction which works mostly in diploid or polyploid organism enables accumulation of organized information in a form of genetic materials.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/01/2021 13:04:29
https://www.fiercebiotech.com/research/talen-gene-editing-tool-more-efficient-than-crispr-cas9-certain-dna-study
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CRISPR-Cas9 has made waves in the biomedical world as a revolutionary gene editing tool, even garnering a 2020 Nobel Prize in chemistry. But it has its limitations.
A research team from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) showed that another gene editing technique called TALEN is up to five times more efficient than CRISPR-Cas9 in a highly compact form of DNA called heterochromatin, according to results published in Nature Communications.
The findings point to TALEN as a better option for the engineering of some hard-to-edit genomic regions, which could be applicable to both research and therapies, the scientists argued. Genetic defects in heterochromatin can cause such diseases as sickle cell anemia, beta thalassemia and fragile X syndrome.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/01/2021 09:57:47
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An anthropologist dives into the world of genetic engineering to explore whether gene-editing tools such as CRISPR fulfill the hope of redesigning our species for the better.
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Strictly speaking, we are all mutants. At a molecular level, each of us is unique. Each of us starts life with 40–80 new mutations that were not found in our parents. From birth, each of us has around 20 inactive genes from loss-of-function mutations. During the course of a normal human life, we also accumulate mutations in our bodies, even in our brains. By the time we reach age 60, a single skin cell will contain between 4,000 and 40,000 mutations, according to a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. These genetic changes are the result of mistakes made each time our DNA is copied during cell division or when cells are damaged by radiation, ultraviolet rays, or toxic chemicals. Generally, mutations aren’t good or bad, just different.https://www.sapiens.org/culture/crispr-mutants/
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/01/2021 11:59:23
Suppose that they can change or modify their desires, superfluous desires would likely be eliminated from their list as time passes by. Only desires which are necessary for their survival would stand.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/02/2021 19:05:47
Generalization works by expanding functionality of existing components of the system. This concept emphasizes on effectiveness over efficiency.
Specialization works by removing unnecessary capability of components which are not related to their main function in a system. This concept emphasizes on increasing efficiency while maintaining effectiveness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2021 06:43:41
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The RNA world is a hypothetical stage in the evolutionary history of life on Earth, in which self-replicating RNA molecules proliferated before the evolution of DNA and proteins. The term also refers to the hypothesis that posits the existence of this stage.Multitalented RNA can be viewed as an example of generalization step.
Alexander Rich first proposed the concept of the RNA world in 1962,[1] and Walter Gilbert coined the term in 1986.[2] Alternative chemical paths to life have been proposed,[3] and RNA-based life may not have been the first life to exist.[2][4] Even so, the evidence for an RNA world is strong enough that the hypothesis has gained wide acceptance.[1][5][6] The concurrent formation of all four RNA building blocks further strengthened the hypothesis.[7]
Like DNA, RNA can store and replicate genetic information; like protein enzymes, RNA enzymes (ribozymes) can catalyze (start or accelerate) chemical reactions that are critical for life.[8] One of the most critical components of cells, the ribosome, is composed primarily of RNA. Ribonucleotide moieties in many coenzymes, such as acetyl-CoA, NADH, FADH, and F420, may be surviving remnants of covalently bound coenzymes in an RNA world.[9]
Although RNA is fragile, some ancient RNAs may have evolved the ability to methylate other RNAs to protect them.[10]
If the RNA world existed, it was probably followed by an age characterized by the evolution of ribonucleoproteins (RNP world),[2] which in turn ushered in the era of DNA and longer proteins. DNA has better stability and durability than RNA; this may explain why it became the predominant information storage molecule.[11] Protein enzymes may have come to replace RNA-based ribozymes as biocatalysts because their greater abundance and diversity of monomers makes them more versatile. As some co-factors contain both nucleotide and amino-acid characteristics, it may be that amino acids, peptides and finally proteins initially were co-factors for ribozymes.[9]
It seems to be followed by specialization steps, which are employing DNA as better suited molecules to store information, and proteins—workhorse molecules that perform important tasks.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2021 06:45:56
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The cells that make up all living things, despite their endless variations, contain three fundamental elements. There are molecules that encode information and can be copied—DNA and its simpler relative, RNA. There are proteins—workhorse molecules that perform important tasks. And encapsulating them all, there’s a membrane made from fatty acids. Go back far enough in time, before animals and plants and even bacteria existed, and you’d find that the precursor of all life—what scientists call a “protocell”—likely had this same trinity of parts: RNA and proteins, in a membrane. As the physicist Freeman Dyson once said, “Life began with little bags of garbage.”
The bags—the membranes—were crucial. Without something to corral the other molecules, they would all just float away, diffusing into the world and achieving nothing. By concentrating them, membranes transformed an inanimate world of disordered chemicals into one teeming with redwoods and redstarts, elephants and E. coli, humans and hagfish. Life, at its core, is about creating compartments. And that’s much easier and much harder than it might seem.
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First, the easy bit. Early cell membranes were built from fatty acids—molecules that look like lollipops, with round heads and long tails. The heads enjoy the company of water; the tails despise it. So, when placed in water, fatty acids self-assemble into hollow spheres, with the water-hating tails pointing inward and the water-loving heads on the surface. These spheres can enclose RNA and proteins, making protocells. Fatty acids, then, can automatically create the compartments that were necessary for life to emerge. It almost seems too good to be true.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/08/interlocking-puzzle-allowed-life-emerge/595945/
And it is, for two reasons. Life first arose in salty oceans, and salt catastrophically destabilizes the fatty-acid spheres. Also, certain ions, including magnesium and iron, cause the spheres to collapse, which is problematic since RNA—another key component of early protocells—requires these ions. How, then, could life possibly have arisen, when the compartments it needs are destroyed by the conditions in which it first emerged, and by the very ingredients it needs to thrive?
Caitlin Cornell and Sarah Keller have an answer to this paradox. They’ve shown that the spheres can withstand both salt and magnesium ions, as long as they’re in the presence of amino acids—the simple molecules that are the building blocks of proteins. The little suns that Cornell saw under her microscope were mixtures of amino acids and fatty acids, holding their spherical shape in the presence of salt.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2021 07:04:02
https://www.quantamagazine.org/origin-of-life-study-points-to-chemical-chimeras-not-rna-20190916/
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Scientists studying how life arose from the primordial soup have been too eager to clean up the clutter.
Four billion years ago, the prebiotic Earth was a messy place, a chaotic mélange of diverse starting materials. Even so, certain key molecules still somehow managed to emerge from that chemical mayhem — RNA, DNA and proteins among them. But in the quest to understand how that happened, according to Ramanarayanan Krishnamurthy, a chemist at the Scripps Research Institute in California, researchers have been so myopic in their focus on reactions that generate molecules relevant to the planet’s current inhabitants that they’ve overlooked other possibilities.
“They are trying to impose biology today on prebiotic chemistry,” he said. “But trying to make the final product right from the raw material — it misleads us.”
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The narrative that has tantalized origin-of-life researchers for decades is the RNA world scenario: Pure RNA arose within the original prebiotic broth of molecules; the RNA made copies of itself but also later evolved and invented DNA as a more stable partner in replication; peptides joined the dance somewhere along the way. This theory has mainly been bolstered by the discovery that RNA can act both as a genetic material and as a catalyst, meaning it could have performed those roles early in life’s history and handed the baton over to DNA and proteins later on.
But the RNA world isn’t a perfect solution. Perhaps the biggest stumbling block is that there have been serious problems with getting pure RNA to replicate itself sustainably in the laboratory. As a first step toward making a copy of itself, a single strand of RNA can take up complementary nucleotide building blocks from its surroundings and stitch them together. But the paired RNA strands then tend to bind to each other so tightly that they don’t unwind without help, which prevents them from acting as either catalysts or templates for further RNA strands.
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“It’s a real challenge,” Sutherland said. “It’s held the field back for a long time.”
But perhaps starting with a jumble of compounds instead of pure RNA alone could fix that, Krishnamurthy thought, after a 2016 experiment involving just such a melting pot yielded unexpected results.
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“I think the RNA world was like an aphrodisiac for many people,” Krishnamurthy said. “It was like a fairy-tale ending: RNA was made and everyone lived happily ever after.” But now it’s becoming clear that “in prebiotic chemistry, you [should be] happy to work with mixtures, and you don’t have to find chemistry that will make only one particular molecule, which is unrealistic.”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2021 08:54:39
With the advancement of telecommunication through Internet, cloud based data servers become more feasible.
Currently, semiconductor-based memories seem to outperform biological neurons in many categories. The reason why they were not employed by natural biology is likely because they don't readily self duplicate, and the process to produce them is too long and complex in biological standard.
As a superorganism, human civilization has found a better functionality of data storage in semiconductor based memories. It doesn't matter if they don't self duplicate since they can be produced through mass production in chip factories. This is another example of specialization process at work.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/02/2021 23:17:46
Insta-crop: CRISPR enables high-speed plant domestication
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Scientists have used genome sequencing and editing to develop a rapid-fire way to domesticate plants, allowing the quick transformation of wild rice into a bountiful crop.Domestication is another example of specialization process. Many functionalities required to survive in the wild are no longer needed in domesticated environment, thus can be removed to reduce cost of growth.
The common form of domesticated rice (Oryza sativa) has two copies of its genome in most cells, but some of its wild relatives have four — a feature that has been associated with vigorous and hardy plants. To take advantage of such genomic richness, Jiayang Li at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing and his colleagues developed a way to make precise changes to the genome of a wild species of rice called Oryza alta. Such precision genome editing is a challenging task in many plants.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/02/2021 00:46:17
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The best process is no process. It weighs nothing, costs nothing, can't go wrong. So, as obvious as that sounds, the best part is no part.
Elon Musk
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/02/2021 10:05:00
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Life with purposehttps://aeon.co/essays/the-biological-research-putting-purpose-back-into-life
Biologists balk at any talk of ‘goals’ or ‘intentions’ – but a bold new research agenda has put agency back on the table
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One of biology’s most enduring dilemmas is how it dances around the issue at the core of such a description: agency, the ability of living entities to alter their environment (and themselves) with purpose to suit an agenda. Typically, discussions of goals and purposes in biology get respectably neutered with scare quotes: cells and bacteria aren’t really ‘trying’ to do anything, just as organisms don’t evolve ‘in order to’ achieve anything (such as running faster to improve their chances of survival). In the end, it’s all meant to boil down to genes and molecules, chemistry and physics – events unfolding with no aim or design, but that trick our narrative-obsessed minds into perceiving these things.
Yet, on the contrary, we now have growing reasons to suspect that agency is a genuine natural phenomenon. Biology could stop being so coy about it if only we had a proper theory of how it arises. Unfortunately, no such thing currently exists, but there’s increasing optimism that a theory of agency can be found – and, moreover, that it’s not necessarily unique to living organisms. A grasp of just what it is that enables an entity to act as an autonomous agent, altering its behaviour and environment to achieve certain ends, should help reconcile biology to the troublesome notions of purpose and function.
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But if we break down agency into its constituents, we can see how it might arise even in the absence of a mind that ‘thinks’, at least in the traditional sense. Agency stems from two ingredients: first, an ability to produce different responses to identical (or equivalent) stimuli, and second, to select between them in a goal-directed way. Neither of these capacities is unique to humans, nor to brains in general.
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At the very least, the latest research suggests that it’s wrong to regard agency as just a curious byproduct of blind evolutionary forces. Nor should we believe that it’s an illusion produced by our tendency to project human attributes onto the world. Rather, agency appears to be an occasional, remarkable property of matter, and one we should feel comfortable invoking when offering causal explanations of what we’re observing.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/02/2021 11:56:42
Cogito ergo sum is the only naturally occuring connection between subjective and objective reality. The "ought world" only tells half story of subjective reality. The other half is its opposite, which is the "ought not world". Somehow Hume's guillotine left this part untouched."Ought" and "ought not" worlds are both subjective. The only naturally occuring objective tool to separate them off is the anthropic principle.
So the more complete map to describe those worlds would consist of a city part on the left side representing "ought not world" or something that conscious agents want to avoid, middle part of the city representing objective reality, city part on the right side representing "ought world", or something that is preferred by conscious agents. Those city parts are separated by two rivers, which represent natural separations between subjective and objective realities.
Conscious systems which bring their "is" world closer to "ought" world are likely to survive, and have the chance to bring it even closer. On the other hand, those who bring their "is" world closer to "ought not" world are likely to extinct, and can not argue about it anymore.
Argumentations over ought and ought not worlds are always done from surviving conscious agents' point of view. Failure to get the correct conclusion means waiting for extinction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2021 06:20:18
Argumentations over ought and ought not worlds are always done from surviving conscious agents' point of view. Failure to get the correct conclusion means waiting for extinction.I can confidently say that anyone reading this statement believes that being alive is better than being dead. At least for the moment they're reading it. Otherwise they would have been dead already, or being busy trying to kill themselves instead of reading this post.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2021 10:17:55
This video kicks off the evolution series by going broad and thinking about why things - including non-living things - exist at all. The first in a series on evolution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2021 05:51:12
In this video, we see how mutations can lead from simple replicators to complex organisms. The third in a series on evolution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2021 06:02:19
Simulating Natural Selection
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2021 08:43:41
Simulating the Evolution of Aggression
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2021 08:57:51
There is no fundamental restriction for life, nor consciousness, to only exist on earth.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/03/2021 09:04:07
An existing conscious agent can classify other conscious agents into three categories: those who promote its existence, those who obstruct its existence, and those who are neutral. Those who seem to be neutral can be considered obstructive if they use up the same resources, hence reducing available quantity of resources for the agent.Argumentations over ought and ought not worlds are always done from surviving conscious agents' point of view. Failure to get the correct conclusion means waiting for extinction.I can confidently say that anyone reading this statement believes that being alive is better than being dead. At least for the moment they're reading it. Otherwise they would have been dead already, or being busy trying to kill themselves instead of reading this post.
Besides classification of agents, we can also classify their behaviors. Someone's parents are generally classified as promoting agents, but their behaviors can be classified further. Their smoking, drinking, or speeding habits can be classified as obstructing behaviors.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2021 14:48:25
As I mentioned in my thread, we should expand our point of view so we see can the universe from the collective consciousness perspective which acts as a superorganism. We shouldn't limit our decision making process selfishly, based on its consequences to ourselves as an individual specimens. Our cells, even our organelles, have grown up from acting selfishly, for the good of the bigger systems they are being part of. Why couldn't we?
At least for now, I think that my position is the only reasonable alternative to nihilism. If you think you have a better option, feel free to share and discuss it, either here or in my thread.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2021 22:32:01
http://m.nautil.us/issue/98/mind/consciousness-is-just-a-feeling
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You write about a seminal moment in your childhood when your older brother suffered a serious brain injury. Can you describe what happened?
I was 4 and he was 6. My parents were yachting and I was down at the water’s edge, but he, with some friends, clambered onto the roof of the clubhouse. Then he tripped and fell three stories onto the pavement below and fractured his skull. He lost consciousness on impact and sustained an intracerebral hemorrhage. We were living in a small village, so he had to be flown to a hospital in Cape Town, and he was very lucky to survive the accident. What was so disturbing and really difficult to comprehend for me was the fact that he looked the same, but was utterly changed. He lost his developmental milestones. For example, he became incontinent and his personality was very changed. He was much more emotional, irascible and difficult, but also intellectually, he was changed.
You say this had a profound impact on you.
It did. We underestimate little children. You start thinking, How can it be that the brain is this thing in his head that’s been damaged and now he looks the same but isn’t the same? Where is he? How can this person, my brother, be an organ? I quickly extrapolated that to my own case and thought, “Hmmm, am I my brain and how can that be? If my brain were to be damaged, would I be a different person? Where would the original version of me go?” And it was a tragedy for my parents. They felt terribly guilty.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2021 22:35:24
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The major point of contention is whether consciousness can be reduced to the laws of physics or biology. The philosopher David Chalmers has speculated that consciousness is a fundamental property of nature that’s not reducible to any laws of nature.
I accept that, except for the word “fundamental.” I argue that consciousness is a property of nature, but it’s not a fundamental property. It’s quite easy to argue that there was a big bang very long ago and long after that, there was an emergence of life. If Chalmers’ view is that consciousness is a fundamental property of the universe, it must have preceded even the emergence of life. I know there are people who believe that. But as a scientist, when you look at the weight of the evidence, it’s just so much less plausible that there was already some sort of elementary form of consciousness even at the moment of the Big Bang. That’s basically the same as the idea of God. It’s not really grappling with the problem.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2021 22:37:31
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Where are those feelings rooted in the brain?.
Feeling arises in a very ancient part of the brain, in the upper brainstem in structures we share with all vertebrates. This part of the brain is over 500 million years old. The very telling fact is that damage to those structures—tiny lesions as small as the size of a match head in parts of the reticular activating system—obliterates all consciousness. That fact alone demonstrates that more complex cognitive consciousness is dependent upon the basic affective form of consciousness that’s generated in the upper brainstem.
So we place too much emphasis on the cortex, which we celebrate because it’s what makes humans smart.
Exactly. Our evolutionary pride and joy is the huge cortical expanse that only mammals have, and we humans have even more of it. That was the biggest mistake we’ve made in the history of the neuroscience of consciousness. The evidence for the cortex being the seat of consciousness is really weak. If you de-corticate a neonatal mammal—say, a rat or a mouse—it doesn’t lose consciousness. Not only does it wake up in the morning and go to sleep at night, it runs and hangs from bars, swims, eats, copulates, plays, raises its pups to maturity. All of this emotional behavior remains without any cortex.
And the same applies to human beings. Children born with no cortex, a condition called hydranencephaly—not to be confused with hydrocephaly—are exactly the same as what I’ve just described in these experimental animals. They wake up in the morning, go to sleep at night, smile when they’re happy and fuss when they’re frustrated. Of course, you can’t speak to them, because they’ve got no cortex. They can’t tell you that they’re conscious, but they show consciousness and feeling in just the same way as our pets do.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2021 22:45:44
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You say we really have two brains—the brainstem and the cortex..
Yes, but the cortex is incapable of generating consciousness by itself. The cortex borrows, as it were, its consciousness from the brainstem. Moreover, consciousness is not intrinsic to what the cortex does. The cortex can perform high level, uniquely human cognitive operations as reading with comprehension, without consciousness being necessary at all. So why does it ever become conscious? The answer is that we have to feel our way into cognition because this is where the values come from. Is this going well or badly? All choices, any decision-making, has to be grounded in a value system where one thing is better than another thing.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2021 23:06:34
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The only point of learning from past events is to better predict future events. That’s the whole point of memory. It’s not just a library where we file away everything that’s happened to us. And the reason why we need to keep a record of what’s happened in the past is so that we can use it as a basis for predicting the future. And yes, the hippocampus is every bit as much for imagining the future as remembering the past. You might say it’s remembering the future.The point I took is that intelligence is a tool to help preserve consciousness. A powerful and universal tool. Building a superintelligent system would be a universal goal of any naturally occurring conscious beings, whenever they've passed some threshold level of consciousness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2021 06:45:15
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Nanobots that patrol our bodies, killer immune cells hunting and destroying cancer cells, biological scissors that cut out defective genes: these are just some of the technologies that Cambridge University researchers are developing and which are set to revolutionise medicine in the future. To tie-in with the recent launch of the Cambridge Academy of Therapeutic Sciences, researchers discuss some of the most exciting developments in medical research and set out their vision for the next 50 years.
Any conscious being capable of identifying a problem will try to overcome it. If the process is successfully repeated, sooner or later they will converge into achieving the universal utopia.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2021 06:55:20
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As technology continues to rapidly advance, the future of AI looks promising, but it doesn’t come without risks. How we choose to govern artificial intelligence could play an integral role in protecting the human race."AI in the wrong hand" is a figurative term to express a worry that AI will be used to achieve a wrong goal, which is conflicting with the universal terminal goal, or at least leading to inefficient route in achieving the universal terminal goal.
Experts believe the real risk of AI is its usage to threaten the legitimacy of political, financial, and social institutions. In the wrong hands, AI could be used to leverage one’s position and gain unchecked access to information, wealth, and power.
Determining how to effectively create and apply regulations for AI governance is paramount to ensuring that the technology is appropriately leveraged to benefit society.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2021 10:09:07
Children born with no cortex, a condition called hydranencephaly—not to be confused with hydrocephaly—are exactly the same as what I’ve just described in these experimental animals. They wake up in the morning, go to sleep at night, smile when they’re happy and fuss when they’re frustrated. Of course, you can’t speak to them, because they’ve got no cortex. They can’t tell you that they’re conscious, but they show consciousness and feeling in just the same way as our pets do.Let's make a thought experiment. A children with hydranencephaly is given an advanced artificial neural network to replace the functionality of his cortex. It gives him a superhuman ability in cognitive functions. He could easily beat human champions in games like chess and go, also in math competitions. Should he be allowed to participate in those competitions? Can he compete for job applications?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2021 02:53:48
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Philosophers have been making the controversial claim that free will is an illusion for hundreds of years, but is there proof? Are their conclusions well founded?
The idea that humans might not have complete autonomy over their lives brings into question what extent we do have control over. If free will is an illusion, and our control is actually limited, then things like criminal law and social status may be drawn into question.
To advance our collective understanding of free will, Dr. Uri Maoz is leading a collaborative research project that’s bringing together neuroscientists and philosophers from around the world. Here’s his take on the age-old debate.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/03/2021 11:13:37
A good video for inspiration. Apparently, his ultimate goal as mentioned below is an instrumental goal to help achieving the universal terminal goal.
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Rocket Science Explained By Elon Musk who founded Space Exploration Technologies, or SpaceX. His goal was to make rockets for space travel more affordable, with the ultimate goal of creating a colony on Mars.
“What Elon did was very different. He didn’t just throw some play money in. He put in his heart, his soul and his mind.”
Chapters:
0:00 Intro
0:15 Orbital dynamics in rocket science
4:25 Rocket stage separation
4:43 Why rocket stages need to land in ocean on a drone ship
6:43 Rocket control in vacuum (Nitrogen Jets)
7:30 Rocket control in air (Grid Fins)
9:01 Why reusability of rockets is important
Thanks for the inspiration to @SpaceX , @NASA and for music thanks to @newarta and @Happy Soul Music Library
10:18 Would you try to save a $30Million palette of cash falling through the atmosphere, which is gonna burn up and smashing into tiny pieces?
I think we can all agree that efficiency is a universal instrumental goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/03/2021 13:44:05
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Visionary biochemist Jennifer Doudna shared the Nobel Prize last year for the gene-editing technology known as CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats), which has the potential to cure diseases caused by genetic mutations. Correspondent David Pogue talks with Doudna about the promises and perils of CRISPR; and with Walter Isaacson, author of the new book "The Code Breaker," about why the biotech revolution will dwarf the digital revolution in importance.
"CBS Sunday Morning" features stories on the arts, music, nature, entertainment, sports, history, science and Americana, and highlights unique human accomplishments and achievements. Check local listings for CBS Sunday Morning broadcast times.
If we can improve our current condition, should we?
Should we prevent any change to our current condition?
Is there a fundamental limit to the change we can make to ourselves?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2021 13:33:54
tools and frameworks continue to evolve. What makes you money today will be automated in some form. You must keep moving.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/03/2021 07:51:37
https://twitter.com/svpino/status/1372286114669551616?s=19It reminds us that getting a job is just an instrumental goal to help achieving a longer term goal, i.e. earning money. In turn, it's just an instrumental goal too, which is to pay for daily needs to survive, such as buying food, clothing, housing, entertainment, etc. In turn, they are just instrumental goal to achieve a yet longer term goal, which is our individual survival or self perseverance.
tools and frameworks continue to evolve. What makes you money today will be automated in some form. You must keep moving.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/03/2021 14:52:23
On the other hand, if what we do in our lives are dedicated to help achieving the terminal goal of a larger system than an individual organism, they can be still meaningful as long as the system exists.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 00:24:56
To be fair, for the sake of the argument, and for brainstorming, it is logically possible to set the preservation of smaller systems as the terminal goal, such as some specific organs, tissues, cells, genes. Hence, someone's death isn't necessarily means their failure, nor the end of their terminal goal, as long as the body parts whose preservation is set as the terminal goal still exists.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 02:50:01
To be fair, for the sake of the argument, and for brainstorming, it is logically possible to set the preservation of smaller systems as the terminal goal, such as some specific organs, tissues, cells, genes. Hence, someone's death isn't necessarily means their failure, nor the end of their terminal goal, as long as the body parts whose preservation is set as the terminal goal still exists.For most people, this kind of goals may seem absurd. Imagine someone who thinks that his terminal goal is to preserve his skull, or his specific DNA. But they may also view other people's terminal goals as equally absurd for those who don't share them.
For an exercise, what do you think about someone who think that their terminal goal is to preserve their family?
What about their clan? their tribe? race? species? genus? class? phylum? village? country? planet? tradition? culture? religion? ideology?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 06:28:29
It would be hard for him to convince other people to commit to some coordinated actions, even when they share their believes that there is no such thing as a terminal goal. Their commitment to achieve common goals are limited to their shared temporary desires, which would be less effective compared to coordinated actions which are done with all out commitment.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 07:05:35
It would be hard for him to convince other people to commit to some coordinated actions, even when they share their believes that there is no such thing as a terminal goal. Their commitment to achieve common goals are limited to their shared temporary desires, which would be less effective compared to coordinated actions which are done with all out commitment.Imagine someone who has strong belief that there is no terminal goal, and makes commitment that he will do everything it takes to convince all other people that it's the case. It would appear that his terminal goal is to convince other people that there is no terminal goal. This position is self defeating and would be hard to follow.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 07:36:55
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The Orthogonality Thesis states that an artificial intelligence can have any combination of intelligence level and goal, that is, its Utility Functions(94) and General Intelligence(52) can vary independently of each other. This is in contrast to the belief that, because of their intelligence, AIs will all converge to a common goal. The thesis was originally defined by Nick Bostrom in the paper "Superintelligent Will", (along with the instrumental convergence thesis). For his purposes, Bostrom defines intelligence to be instrumental rationality.
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Defense of the thesisA commonly cited thought experiment to describe orthogonality thesis is a superintelligent machine whose terminal goal is to produce paper clips as many as possible. It's supposed to show that intelligence and terminal goal can be independent to each other.
It has been pointed out that the orthogonality thesis is the default position, and that the burden of proof is on claims that limit possible AIs. Stuart Armstrong writes that,
One reason many researchers assume superintelligences to converge to the same goals may be because most humans have similar values. Furthermore, many philosophies hold that there is a rationally correct morality, which implies that a sufficiently rational AI will acquire this morality and begin to act according to it. Armstrong points out that for formalizations of AI such as AIXI and Gödel machines, the thesis is known to be true. Furthermore, if the thesis was false, then Oracle AIs would be impossible to build, and all sufficiently intelligent AIs would be impossible to control.
Pathological Cases
There are some pairings of intelligence and goals which cannot exist. For instance, an AI may have the goal of using as little resources as possible, or simply of being as unintelligent as possible. These goals will inherently limit the degree of intelligence of the AI.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 13:02:17
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From this imperfect analogy, one can start to see some holes in the orthogonality thesis, or OT (it’s a mouthful). Just as rules in sports like basketball will determine how an athlete trains to achieve peak performance, the moral framework (or lack thereof) to which an AGI (artificial general intelligence) applies its intelligence will determine how that AGI develops its abilities to best meet its goals. However, as Peter Voss mentions, there are a “large range of common (sub-) goals required by AGI.” These sub-goals mirror aspects of athleticism useful to many sports’ rule frameworks — vertical jump for examples is pivotal in all three of Wilt’s ventures. From this analogy it seems that intelligence does not fit the orthogonality thesis in two ways:https://medium.com/@shawzm1/wilt-chamberlain-disapproves-of-the-orthogonality-thesis-b18091a361c2
An AGI will develop intelligence according to the long-term rules (whether explicit or implicit) of its morality. Humans will initially create the intelligence, but at a tipping point AGI will take control of its own development.
An AGI will develop certain capabilities independent of those morality rules. Developing these capabilities and not others precludes certain combinations of an AGI’s intelligence. To see how, let’s take a look at AGI value alignment.
Athletic abilities like Wilt’s changed the rule of the game, where developments within AGI will likely necessitate changes to AI value alignment. As Peter Voss mentions, “orthogonality is undermined by the fact that AGIs will inherently help to narrow down worthwhile goals.” To ultimately improve the survivability of the game of basketball, the league commissioner changed rules based upon certain individuals’ athleticism. As AI grows more intelligent, we — as programmers of AI, or morality commissioners — will need to improve the value alignment of that AI.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 13:24:52
Finding someone with high IQ score but has silly goals is not that difficult.
On the other hand, Zach Shaw expected to get something more from intelligence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2021 23:05:48
A smart Indian or Japanese kid may get a low IQ score if the test was written in Russian or Arabic language, and vice versa. Someone with tremor may have hard time writing down the answers to the test sheet. Someone with impaired vision may face difficulty in reading the question or seeing the pictures to recognize the patterns.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2021 07:50:16
This article tells us what we know about consciousness.Although I agree with most of the contents presented in the article, I disagree with the title. Just like intelligence; feeling, emotion, instinct, and reflex are all tools to help achieving the goals of conscious agents.
http://m.nautil.us/issue/98/mind/consciousness-is-just-a-feeling
Their main differences are in the processing speed, accuracy, precision, and energy requirement to proceed. They determine actions taken by conscious agents as responds to stimuli.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2021 22:20:20
I also mentioned about minimum requirements for a system to be called conscious. It must have parts serving the function of virtualization of objective reality , including its own representation in its virtual world, which we often call self awareness. To do that, it needs some sensing mechanisms, some memory to store the results and convert them into its internal model. It must also have actuation function, which gives it access to modify or manipulate its real world environment.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2021 22:54:33
For example, a visual input can have mega pixels resolution, with billions of colors for each pixels, and update rate of hundreds of frames per second. It would come with enormous cost, but for some situations the benefits can overcome it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/03/2021 07:49:14
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The Greek philosopher Plato once imagined a city that provides full justice to its citizens. Setting out his ideas in the Republic almost 2500 years ago, Plato did not, however, think that such a city could ever be realized. Radical (and surely unachievable) transformations in education, culture and government would be required to establish and sustain it. “Ridiculous,” Plato concluded.
In a similar vein, the US cultural anthropologist Vincent Ialenti envisions a fictional city whose citizens have been trained to think so that humans don’t need to flee the planet to survive. So utopian is the picture that Ialenti – writing in his new book Deep Time Reckoning – calls it “absurd”. Yet that notion is no less absurd, he continues, than the way humans are now acting, “careening toward an Anthropocene cliff”.
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Climate-change predictions, even for 2050, seem hopelessly far in the future, and tainted by politics, guesswork and subjectivity. Thinking about the present seems more do-able, while thinking about tens or hundreds of thousands of years in the future appears starry-eyed and abstract. But Ialenti believes the exact opposite is true. What’s abstract (in the sense of detached from reality) is what Ialenti calls “a manic fixation on the present”, and not being able to think about humanity thousands of years hence.
Ialenti is less interested in the conclusions reached by the Finnish experts than by their audacious aims, which are to develop methods to break free from what he calls our “shallow time discipline”. He then tries to devise ways to retrain our habits to encourage humans to think long-term; for him, Deep Time Reckoning is not a stale academic treatise but more of a “practical toolkit”.
This toolkit includes high-school civics classes devoted to teaching long-term developments: of the universe since the Big Bang 13.8 billion years ago; of Earth since 4.5 billion years ago; of Earth’s life, dinosaurs and humans; and of the evolution of languages and technologies. It envisions school pupils reading about futuristic visions by Ray Kurzweil and Marxist descriptions of world utopias.
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The critical point
Plato meant the Republic to be a beacon for humans to think about justice in the present, not as the blueprint for an actual city to be realized in the future. After all, if you head straight towards a lighthouse, you usually end up on the rocks.
Somewhere in deep time looms a catastrophe that we don’t yet have the imagination to envision, nor the will to confront. Ialenti thinks he finds in the Finnish nuclear-risk experts glimmerings of what it might take to cultivate the human behaviour needed to do so. Humanity’s long-range hope, Ialenti suggests, hangs on what we might call the Finlandization of the planet.
Finding and working towards a universal utopia may sound absurd, yet it is not more absurd than the way humans are now acting.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/03/2021 11:01:13
20210325_175312.jpg (511.77 kB . 1692x1480 - viewed 5030 times)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/03/2021 14:19:58
It must also have actuation function, which gives it access to modify or manipulate its real world environment.Systems with working input and processing parts only, are usually not considered conscious since they lack of actuation functionality. Some examples are someone dreaming in their sleep, or a brain in a vat.
But the boundary might be blur. There are dream walkers. Someone under hypnosis can still follow some simple orders. Brain in the vat can still manipulate the real world indirectly by manipulating electrochemical signals being read by the machine used by the researchers to study the brain. Theoretically, the brain can manipulate the response of the researchers to do things that it wants.
Approaching from the other side, an otherwise normal person locked inside a hermetically sealed coffin buried miles underground, or left in interstellar space. Nothing he can do to change his environment.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/03/2021 22:49:23
For example, a visual input can have mega pixels resolution, with billions of colors for each pixels, and update rate of hundreds of frames per second. It would come with enormous cost, but for some situations the benefits can overcome it.Update rate of visual input processing in average humans is around 24 frames per second. Scan rate of CRT TV is 30 fps, makes the transitions between frames imperceptible by human, but can be captured by high speed camera. Partially unconscious persons may have lower update rate. How low can it be until we call them no longer conscious? Once per second? minute? hour? day? week?
Lower update rate, which means lower temporal resolution, reduces conciousness level. So does lower spatial resolution, and chromatic resolution. Normal humans are blind to infrared as well as ultraviolet light. Having access to sense them can give us better accuracy and precision of our model of our environment. It means that our consciousness level can be increased using some tools.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/03/2021 06:39:49
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/03/2021 06:49:20
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Seventy thousand years ago, our human ancestors were insignificant animals, just minding their own business in a corner of Africa with all the other animals. But now, few would disagree that humans dominate planet Earth; we've spread to every continent, and our actions determine the fate of other animals (and possibly Earth itself). How did we get from there to here? Historian Yuval Noah Harari suggests a surprising reason for the rise of humanity.The universal utopia based on universal terminal goal provides the timeless story required to unify all conscious agents and organize their actions to help achieving common goals, regardless of their differences in physical traits.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/03/2021 11:59:11
A commonly cited thought experiment to describe orthogonality thesis is a superintelligent machine whose terminal goal is to produce paper clips as many as possible. It's supposed to show that intelligence and terminal goal can be independent to each other.Nonetheless, the survival rate of conscious systems depend on the alignment between their terminal goal and their own survival. The survival rate is at lowest point when the terminal goal is diametrically opposed to their survival. It's highest when the terminal goal is perfectly aligned to their survival, which means that their own survival is set as their terminal goal. Everything else is in between those two extremes.
In the case of paper clip maker superintelligent machine, the terminal goal is clearly not its own survival, but it's not diametrically opposed either, hence it lies in between. It means that it cannot be the most efficient system possible to survive, which means that it is in a disadvantaged position when it has to compete with other conscious systems with similar superintelligence, but less burdens unrelated to their survival.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/03/2021 23:06:02
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As to the unit of selection: "One internally consistent logical picture is that the unit of replication is the gene,...and the organism is one kind of ...entity on which selection acts directly."[30] Dawkins proposed the matter without a distinction between 'unit of replication' and 'unit of selection' that he made elsewhere: "the fundamental unit of selection, and therefore of self-interest, is not the species, nor the group, nor even strictly the individual. It is the gene, the unit of heredity."[31] However, he continues in a later chapter:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Selfish_Gene
"On any sensible view of the matter Darwinian selection does not work on genes directly. ...The important differences between genes emerge only in their effects. The technical word phenotype is used for the bodily manifestation of a gene, the effect that a gene has on the body...Natural selection favours some genes rather than others not because of the nature of the genes themselves, but because of their consequences—their phenotypic effects...But we shall now see that the phenotypic effects of a gene need to be thought of as all the effects that it has on the world. ...The phenotypic effects of a gene are the tools by which it levers itself into the next generation. All I am going to add is that the tools may reach outside the individual body wall...Examples that spring to mind are artefacts like beaver dams, bird nests, and caddis houses."
— Richard Dawkins, The Selfish Gene, Chapter 13, pp. 234, 235, 238
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 03:29:28
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Dawkins' later formulation is in his book The Extended Phenotype (1982), where the process of selection is taken to involve every possible phenotypical effect of a gene.
Stephen Jay Gould finds Dawkins' position tries to have it both ways:[32]
"Dawkins claims to prefer genes and to find greater insight in this formulation. But he allows that you or I might prefer organisms—and it really doesn't matter."
— Stephen Jay Gould, The Structure of Evolutionary Theory, pp. 640-641
The view of The Selfish Gene is that selection based upon groups and populations is rare compared to selection on individuals. Although supported by Dawkins and by many others, this claim continues to be disputed.[33][34] While naïve versions of group selectionism have been disproved, more sophisticated formulations make accurate predictions in some cases while positing selection at higher levels.[35] Both sides agree that very favourable genes are likely to prosper and replicate if they arise and both sides agree that living in groups can be an advantage to the group members. The conflict arises in part over defining concepts:
"Cultural evolutionary theory, however, has suffered from an overemphasis on the experiences and behaviors of individuals at the expense of acknowledging complex group organization...Many important behaviors related to the success and function of human societies are only properly defined at the level of groups".[34]
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 05:05:01
As a basic information unit, a gene has no ability to make a plan. It can't have preference either, hence it can't have its own goal. It just appears that it tends to survive while it can, which sounds like anthropic principle.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 05:51:53
Its effect to the phenotype depends on its activation, which is affected by other genes.
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/rabbit-handstand-front-paws-gene-defect-video/amp?__twitter_impression=true
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A gene defect may make rabbits do handstands instead of hop
To move quickly, some rabbits throw up their back legs and walk on their front paws.
Some rabbits walk on their front paws in a strange gait that is the result of a mutation in one gene, a study finds. The protein made by that gene may help rabbits coordinate their limbs.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 07:23:23
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 11:51:14
Biological systems with lower organizational level than individual, such as organs, tissues, or cells, are not sophisticated enough to simulate the universe. On the other hand, superorganism systems which consist of multiple individual specimens are usually loosely defined, and only have limited resources dedicated to simulate the universe, at least until recently. Think about insect colonies, wolf packs, human tribes, governments of cities, countries, organized religions, or corporations. Traditionally, their update rates are much lower than individual organisms.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 12:21:33
Even when viewed from individual level, not everyone has the capability to view the world from other system's point of view. Majority of species known to exist don't seem to have such ability.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 13:24:36
Genetic or memetic point of view provide the minimum limit of system's complexity to analize evolutionary process. On the other hand, the universal consciousness derived from universal terminal goal provides the maximum limit.A commonly cited thought experiment to describe orthogonality thesis is a superintelligent machine whose terminal goal is to produce paper clips as many as possible. It's supposed to show that intelligence and terminal goal can be independent to each other.Nonetheless, the survival rate of conscious systems depend on the alignment between their terminal goal and their own survival. The survival rate is at lowest point when the terminal goal is diametrically opposed to their survival. It's highest when the terminal goal is perfectly aligned to their survival, which means that their own survival is set as their terminal goal. Everything else is in between those two extremes.
In the case of paper clip maker superintelligent machine, the terminal goal is clearly not its own survival, but it's not diametrically opposed either, hence it lies in between. It means that it cannot be the most efficient system possible to survive, which means that it is in a disadvantaged position when it has to compete with other conscious systems with similar superintelligence, but less burdens unrelated to their survival.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 13:32:18
Though human brains may have adequate resources to simulate some parts of the universe, their existences depend on other organs forming the human individuals. Hence their expressions represent the individuals as a whole, not merely the brain as an organ.In ancient kingdoms and empires, the virtualizations happened in their documentation and administration systems, which can take forms of clay tablets or writings on paper. In modern organizations, they take place in computers. They are more flexible in the mechanisms, such as mechanical, vacuum tubes, electronic semiconductors, or optical computers.
They virtualize taxes, budgetings, assets, plans, supply chains, etc.
In biological systems, the virtualizations are usually formed by neural networks.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2021 13:54:57
I also mentioned about minimum requirements for a system to be called conscious. It must have parts serving the function of virtualization of objective reality , including its own representation in its virtual world, which we often call self awareness. To do that, it needs some sensing mechanisms, some memory to store the results and convert them into its internal model. It must also have actuation function, which gives it access to modify or manipulate its real world environment.Most unicellular organisms are assumed to be non-conscious. But if we are willing to be more flexible in our terms, we can see that they already pass some minimum requirements for consciousness.
Some bacteria clearly can sense their surrounding and make actions accordingly. But most of us would think that they don't have memory so they can't virtualize their surrounding universe. But CRISPR mechanism has told us that they do have long term memory, in the form of DNA, which is the only long term memory storage they have. What they remember is, among other things, viral codes that have infected them, which is an important factor of their environment affecting their survival.
It reminds me of an advice, if something is important enough, you must try to achieve it, no matter how hard, risky, or costly it is.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/03/2021 06:39:33
Though human brains may have adequate resources to simulate some parts of the universe, their existences depend on other organs forming the human individuals. Hence their expressions represent the individuals as a whole, not merely the brain as an organ.The universal superorganism consciousness will execute most of its information processings in supercomputers, similar to currently existing e-government and IT infrastructures of large corporations. They will likely involved more in strategic thinking and long term decision makings, while shorter term decisions will be left to computing tools in lower hierarchies and edge computers.
In the past, thinking process at all hierarchical levels in superorganisms from village to imperium were done by human brains through their rulers or representatives at each level.
At some point in the future, human individuals, at least in current form, would be seen more as burdens rather than tools. That's why we would need to improve ourselves. There are many ways to do that, such as gene editing, epigenetics, nanotechnology, direct brain interface, exoskeleton, etc.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/03/2021 10:40:35
Some dystopian stories cast fear by imagining that the supercomputer equipped with AGI would detach itself from humanity and becomes an independent conscious entity. It's like other cells in a human body become fearfull that the brain would detach itself from the body and becomes an independent conscious entity once it gets smarter.Though human brains may have adequate resources to simulate some parts of the universe, their existences depend on other organs forming the human individuals. Hence their expressions represent the individuals as a whole, not merely the brain as an organ.The universal superorganism consciousness will execute most of its information processings in supercomputers, similar to currently existing e-government and IT infrastructures of large corporations. They will likely involved more in strategic thinking and long term decision makings, while shorter term decisions will be left to computing tools in lower hierarchies and edge computers.
In the past, thinking process at all hierarchical levels in superorganisms from village to imperium were done by human brains through their rulers or representatives at each level.
At some point in the future, human individuals, at least in current form, would be seen more as burdens rather than tools. That's why we would need to improve ourselves. There are many ways to do that, such as gene editing, epigenetics, nanotechnology, direct brain interface, exoskeleton, etc.
At a glance, it may sound absurd. But it's not completely impossible either. Once the brain gets access to modify the body at will, it is likely that it will be done.
Humans are known to cut their hair and nails for a long time. Some of them get circumcised. Some get amputated due to accident or cancer. Some have replaced their hearts. Some get lasik to fix their vision. A few had half of their brains removed.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/03/2021 11:38:44
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2021 04:06:06
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2021 07:14:50
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2021 10:24:31
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The Future of Humankind with Yuval Harari. What is the next stage of human evolution? How will we protect this fragile planet and humankind itself from our own destructive powers? Professor and author Yuval Harari envisions our future: a not-too-distant world in which we face a new set of challenges and possibilities. With his trademark blend of science, history, philosophy and every discipline in between, Harari investigates the projects, dreams and nightmares that will shape the twenty-first century.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2021 16:29:11
Some dystopian stories cast fear by imagining that the supercomputer equipped with AGI would detach itself from humanity and becomes an independent conscious entity. It's like other cells in a human body become fearfull that the brain would detach itself from the body and becomes an independent conscious entity once it gets smarter.Some changes can bring us anxiety, especially when there is a significant probability of unwanted consequences. The virtual universe can be built to minimise the surprises.
At a glance, it may sound absurd. But it's not completely impossible either. Once the brain gets access to modify the body at will, it is likely that it will be done.
Humans are known to cut their hair and nails for a long time. Some of them get circumcised. Some get amputated due to accident or cancer. Some have replaced their hearts. Some get lasik to fix their vision. A few had half of their brains removed.
The development of AI towards AGI is causing people to lose jobs. In the past, there were telephone switch operators. Now we get less cashiers and bank tellers. Production processes are getting more automated. In the near future, we will see less truck drivers and taxi drivers. In more distant future, we will see intelligent machines doing the current jobs of medical professionals, legal and financial advisers, hedge fund managers, law makers, athletes, artists, farmers, construction workers, engineers, and many others. They will even outperform automation engineers who build them and bring them into existence in the first place.
It's expected that there will be reluctance to implement those changes and trust the jobs to the machines, at least initially when there are still many flaws to be found. But that's normal, since trust is to be earned, not just given away.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2021 12:34:56
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2021 05:45:01
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We are on the cusp of a major disruption in how we feed ourselves. This video is a quick summary of a report from RethinkX on where agriculture is headed over the next decade, and it's mind blowing!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2021 05:56:54
Though human brains may have adequate resources to simulate some parts of the universe, their existences depend on other organs forming the human individuals. Hence their expressions represent the individuals as a whole, not merely the brain as an organ.In ancient kingdoms and empires, the virtualizations happened in their documentation and administration systems, which can take forms of clay tablets or writings on paper. In modern organizations, they take place in computers. They are more flexible in the mechanisms, such as mechanical, vacuum tubes, electronic semiconductors, or optical computers.
They virtualize taxes, budgetings, assets, plans, supply chains, etc.
In biological systems, the virtualizations are usually formed by neural networks.
Emergence – How Stupid Things Become Smart Together
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How can many stupid things combine to form smart things? How can proteins become living cells? How become lots of ants a colony? What is emergence?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2021 06:27:43
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/04/2021 12:14:05
In early human civilizations as superorganisms, external data storages came into existence as an alternative for human brains which are typically less reliable as long term memory. Painting on cave walls and clay tablets are some examples. More practical, and more capacity data storage evolved in the form of writings on paper, printing press, microfilms. Invention of computer requires better version of data storage more suited to digital information. They started with punched cards, then magnetic tapes/discs, optical discs, and solid state drives.When viewed from the perspective of unicellular organisms, a multicellular organism can be seen as a super organism. A human cell sees a human body similarly to a human individual sees a corporation or a government.
With the advancement of telecommunication through Internet, cloud based data servers become more feasible.
Currently, semiconductor-based memories seem to outperform biological neurons in many categories. The reason why they were not employed by natural biology is likely because they don't readily self duplicate, and the process to produce them is too long and complex in biological standard.
As a superorganism, human civilization has found a better functionality of data storage in semiconductor based memories. It doesn't matter if they don't self duplicate since they can be produced through mass production in chip factories. This is another example of specialization process at work.
Primitive forms of multicellular organisms only have limited communication and speciation among their cells. In more advanced organisms, activities can be better organized among cells in different places by inventing some telecommunication methods, namely hormones and neurons.
Similarly, primitive human societies also have limited communication and speciation of skills among their members. Inventions of languages, writings, telephone and internet improve our ability to organize our actions to achieve common goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2021 14:50:41
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IBM has come up with an automatic debating system called Project Debater that researches a topic, presents an argument, listens to a human rebuttal and formulates its own rebuttal. But does it pass the Turing test? Or does the Turing test matter anymore?
The Turing test was first introduced in 1950, often cited as year-one for AI research. It asks, “Can machines think?”. Today we’re more interested in machines that can intelligently make restaurant recommendations, drive our car along the tedious highway to and from work, or identify the surprising looking flower we just stumbled upon. These all fit the definition of AI as a machine that can perform a task normally requiring the intelligence of a human. Though as you’ll see below, Turing’s test wasn’t even for intelligence or even for thinking, but rather to determine a test subject’s sex.
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Does it matter if any of today’s AIs can pass the Turing test? That’s most often not the goal. Most AIs end up as marketed products, even the ones that don’t start out that way. After all, eventually someone has to pay for the research. As long as they do the job then it doesn’t matter.
IBM’s goal for Project Debater is to produce persuasive arguments and make well informed decisions free of personal bias, a useful tool to sell to businesses and governments. Tesla’s goal for its AI is to drive vehicles. Chatbots abound for handling specific phone and online requests. All of them do something normally requiring the intelligence of a human with varying degrees of success. The test that matters then is whether or not they do their tasks well enough for people to pay for them.
Maybe asking if a machine can think, or even if it can pass for a human, isn’t really relevant. The ways we’re using them require only that they can complete their tasks. Sometimes this can require “human-like” behavior, but most often not. If we’re not using AI to trick people anyway, is the Turing test still relevant?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/04/2021 13:23:13
So far, I've seen that progress of continuous improvement of organized information system can be classified into two types, generalization and specialization. Perhaps it's comparable to bulking and cutting process in body building.https://scitechdaily.com/big-breakthrough-for-massless-energy-storage-structural-battery-that-performs-10x-better-than-all-previous-versions/
Generalization works by expanding functionality of existing components of the system. This concept emphasizes on effectiveness over efficiency.
Specialization works by removing unnecessary capability of components which are not related to their main function in a system. This concept emphasizes on increasing efficiency while maintaining effectiveness.
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Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology have produced a structural battery that performs ten times better than all previous versions. It contains carbon fiber that serves simultaneously as an electrode, conductor, and load-bearing material. Their latest research breakthrough paves the way for essentially ’massless’ energy storage in vehicles and other technology.This is an example of generalization step. A component aquires new function. In the future, I expect to have less dumb structures. Walls will also function as energy storages. Roofs will also function as power generator using solar cells.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/04/2021 16:32:21
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/04/2021 01:26:29
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Neuralink makes brain implants that it hopes can eventually be used to give people with quadriplegia the ability to control computers and other devices using only their minds. In the future, the company says, healthy people might do the same. Someday, this could conceivably eliminate the need for keyboards, speech-to-text, and thumb typing on phones.https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/elon-musk-neuralink-monkey-mindpong-pager.html
The company just took a big step toward that future. It implanted two of its devices into the brain of a nine-year-old macaque named Pager and then taught him to move a computer cursor--and to play Pong--using a joystick. (Pager likes to play because when he gets things right, he's rewarded with banana smoothie delivered through a metal tube.)
As Pager played, the Neuralink devices recorded the signals in his brain that told his hand to move the joystick up, down, left, or right. The company's software learned to interpret those brain signals as movements, and then sent those movements directly to the computer, bypassing the joystick. Soon, Pager was able to move the cursor, and then play Pong, using just his brain. And he played really well. Despite the researchers speeding up the game to test his abilities, Pager only loses one point during the video, which is appropriately titled "Monkey MindPong."
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/04/2021 13:41:06
On the other hand, we also have specialization step. For example, each neuron in human brain contains complete set of genes whose function are unrelated to information processing. Artificial neurons can be designed based on natural neurons with unnecessary parts removed.https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/our-brains-typically-overlook-this-brilliant-problem-solving-strategy/
People often limit their creativity by continually adding new features to a design rather than removing existing ones.
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For generations, the standard way to learn how to ride a bicycle was with training wheels or a tricycle. But in recent years, many parents have opted to train their kids with balance bikes, pedalless two-wheelers that enable children to develop the coordination needed for bicycling—a skill that is not as easily acquired with an extra set of wheels.
Given the benefits of balance bikes, why did it take so long for them to replace training wheels? There are plenty of other examples in which overlooked solutions that involve subtraction turn out to be better alternatives. In some European cities, for example, urban planners have gotten rid of traffic lights and road signs to make streets safer—an idea that runs counter to conventional traffic design.
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To determine why people tended to choose additive solutions, the team dug deeper by conducting a series of eight experiments with more than 1,500 individuals recruited either from a university campus or through Amazon Mechanical Turk, a crowdsourcing Web site. In one experiment, people were asked to stabilize the roof of a Lego structure held up by a single block that rested atop a cube-shaped base. The reward for completing the task was $1, and participants could add new blocks for 10 cents apiece or get rid of blocks for free. The researchers wrote that one group was provided a cue about potential subtractive solutions by being told, “Each piece that you add costs ten cents but removing pieces is free,” while another group was just told, “Each piece that you add costs ten cents.” Almost two thirds of people in the cued group ended up choosing to eliminate the single block rather than adding new ones, compared with 41 percent of those who had not received the prompt.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/04/2021 13:29:42
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SHOWNOTES
How we can hack humans and manipulate their desires [3:26]
How algorithms will learn to understand you better than you understand yourself (and why you could be replaced by one) [5:03]
Why corporations will even be able to predict your sexual orientation… [8:50]
The reality of outsourcing the self-discovery process… [12:27]
How algorithms will change the way we make art… [15:49]
Can AI save us from cancer? (See how it’s possible, but decide for yourself if it's dangerous)... [18:10]
The battle between privacy and health... [19:29]
How to take control of the story you tell yourself and why you need to stop thinking of your life as a movie… [21:09]
Why we’re heading into the direction of immortality and the future is just a series of massive disruptions [28:44]
Why you need to continuously reinvent yourself if you want to survive to 2035. [30:01]
The two most important tools you will need to succeed in the world of AI (and they’re not what you think). [32:05]
Why Yuval believes that science fiction is the most important artistic genre… [34:25]
See what Yuval has to say about the world’s 3 biggest challenges… [37:29]
QUOTES
“We Are Now Hackable Animals”
“When infotech merges with biotech what you get is the ability to create algorithms that understand me better than I understand myself.” [5:20]
“Maybe the most important thing in life is to get to know yourself better. But for all of history this was a process of self-exploration which you did from things like meditation, sports, or art, and complementation. But what does it mean when the process of self-exploration is being outsourced to a big data algorithm? The philosophical implications are mind-boggling.” [12:34]
“The story of your life is made of bits and pieces and it only makes sense" [23:50]
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/04/2021 06:23:47
The 2 Most Important Skills For the Rest Of Your Life | Yuval Noah Harari on Impact TheoryI posted Harari's videos since he brought many points relevant to our discussions in my threads. It seems like we're both influenced by the thoughts of futurists like Ray Kurzweil, who said that he simply observed the trend of technological advancements and recognized the patterns to extrapolate and project them into the future. He didn't put philosophical consideration into his predictions.
Harari added into his world view his own perspective as a historian. He emphasizes the power of stories to drive human actions and behaviors. The stories are a subset of a more general concept, which is meme.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/04/2021 07:10:20
It seems that he is influenced by a neuroscience research which concludes that consciousness is about feelings. I've posted the link to it in my previous post. He didn't explore much on the concept of goal, let alone finding a universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/04/2021 07:38:04
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/04/2021 21:13:03
People often limit their creativity by continually adding new features to a design rather than removing existing ones.Here is another source to the same topic.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/04/the-takeaway-is-that-we-dont-tend-to-take-things-away/
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When asked to fix something, we don’t even think of removing parts
Across many experiments, participants tried to fix problems by adding stuff.
As a society, we seem to have mixed feelings about whether it's better to add or subtract things, advising both that "less is more" and "bigger is better." But these contradictory views play out across multibillion-dollar industries, with people salivating over the latest features of their hardware and software before bemoaning that the added complexities make the product difficult to use.
A team of researchers from the University of Virginia decided to look at the behavior underlying this tension, finding in a new paper that most people defaulted to assuming that the best way of handling a problem is to add new features. While it was easy to overcome this tendency with some simple nudges, the researchers suggest that this thought process may underlie some of the growing complexity of the modern world.
https://neurosciencenews.com/subtraction-cognition-18195/
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Summary: Study explains the human tendency to look at a situation, or object, that needs improvement in different contexts, and instead, generally believe adding an element is a better solution than removing one.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/04/2021 15:31:16
Without a goal, we can't say whether or not something is good or bad. Without consciousness there can't be any goal.If you are part of a larger conscious entity, then your terminal goal can be merely their instrumental goal. For example, the terminal goal of a scout ant is to find food. But it's merely an instrumental goal for the ant colony. Likewise, the terminal goal of an ant queen is to lay eggs. She doesn't even take care of them, except in a new colony.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/04/2021 22:04:46
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The Blind Watchmaker, Richard Dawkins’ bestselling 1986 book that skewers the notion of intelligent design while celebrating the rational science of evolution, got its star turn today in Jeff Bezos’ final shareholder letter as CEO of Amazon.
Specifically, Bezos quoted this passage on what the natural fight to stay alive means from a purely biological standpoint:
“Staving off death is a thing that you have to work at. Left to itself – and that is what it is when it dies – the body tends to revert to a state of equilibrium with its environment. If you measure some quantity such as the temperature, the acidity, the water content or the electrical potential in a living body, you will typically find that it is markedly different from the corresponding measure in the surroundings. Our bodies, for instance, are usually hotter than our surroundings, and in cold climates they have to work hard to maintain the differential. When we die the work stops, the temperature differential starts to disappear, and we end up the same temperature as our surroundings.”
Bezos point? That the struggle to stay alive is constant as our environment dispassionately seeks to return all of us to room temperature.
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And that, from a business standpoint, doesn’t align with his Day One philosophy. He continued:https://www.geekwire.com/2021/heres-jeff-bezos-quoted-1986-book-human-evolution-shareholders-letter/
“While the passage is not intended as a metaphor, it’s nevertheless a fantastic one, and very relevant to Amazon. I would argue that it’s relevant to all companies and all institutions and to each of our individual lives too. In what ways does the world pull at you in an attempt to make you normal? How much work does it take to maintain your distinctiveness? To keep alive the thing or things that make you special?”
Bezos ends his letter with this message: “The world will always try to make Amazon more typical – to bring us into equilibrium with our environment. It will take continuous effort, but we can and must be better than that.”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/04/2021 16:00:00
Bezos point? That the struggle to stay alive is constant as our environment dispassionately seeks to return all of us to room temperature.The us here is not limited to biologically individual multicellular organisms like a human specimen. It also works on lower levels such as individual cells or organs, as well as higher levels such as corporations, countries, tribes, species, and beyond.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/04/2021 13:40:44
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CRISPR (Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats) is a revolutionary technology that gives scientists the ability to alter DNA. On the one hand, this tool could mean the elimination of certain diseases. On the other, there are concerns (both ethical and practical) about its misuse and the yet-unknown consequences of such experimentation.
"The technique could be misused in horrible ways," says counter-terrorism expert Richard A. Clarke. Clarke lists biological weapons as one of the potential threats, "Threats for which we don't have any known antidote." CRISPR co-inventor, biochemist Jennifer Doudna, echos the concern, recounting a nightmare involving the technology, eugenics, and a meeting with Adolf Hitler.
Should humanity even have access to this type of tool? Do the positives outweigh the potential dangers? How could something like this ever be regulated, and should it be? These questions and more are considered by Doudna, Clarke, evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins, psychologist Steven Pinker, and physician Siddhartha Mukherjee.
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TRANSCRIPT:
0:41 Jennifer Doudna defines CRISPR
3:47 CRISPR’s risks
4:52 Artificial selection vs. artificial mutation
6:25 Why Steven Pinker believes humanity will play it safe
9:20 Lessons from history
10:58 How CRISPR can help
11:22 Jennifer Doudna’s chimeric-Hitler dream
- Our ability to manipulate genes can be very powerful. It has been very powerful.
- This is going to revolutionize human life.
- Would the consequences be bad? And they might be.
- Every time you monkey with the genome you are taking a chance that something will go wrong.
- The technique could be misused in horrible ways.
- When I started this research project, I've kind of had this initial feeling of what have I done.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/04/2021 13:46:09
Aging Expert: The First Person to Live to 1,000 Has Already Been Born
Dr. Aubrey de Grey sees aging as a problem than can be solved through "technological intervention."
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Aging has plagued biological organisms since life first began on planet Earth and it’s an accepted and universally understood part of life. Sure, things like climate change pose significant threats to society, but aging will almost certainly still exist even if we ever manage to stop damaging our environment.
That said, scientists aren’t the kind of people who just live with the cards life has dealt them, and are especially likely to use their understanding of the world to solve difficult and seemingly impossible problems — like aging.
Dr. Aubrey de Grey is one such person. Through the co-founding of the SENS Research Foundation and his role as chief science officer, de Grey has set out to end biological aging. The foundation’s “About” page makes it clear that de Grey believes “a world free of age-related disease is possible.”
Speaking at a Virtual Futures event in London on Wednesday, Inverse confirmed that de Grey truly believes in this goal, even going so far as to boldly state that the first person that will live to be 1,000 years-old has already been born. He also thinks science will have found a way to perfect anti-aging treatments within the next 20 years.
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If or when humanity determines how to reject aging, de Grey foresees the development of rejuvenation clinics that will address seven issues related to aging: tissue atrophy, cancerous cells, mitochondrial mutations, death-resistant cells, extracellular matrix stiffening, extracellular aggregates, and intracellular aggregates.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/04/2021 22:52:36
If our actions have no effect whatsoever to future conscious beings, they will be meaningless. It could happen if we go extinct and the conscious beings exist in the future emerge/evolve independently from our lineage.
Whatever the future conscious beings might be, they are extremely unlikely to appear suddenly out of nowhere in a single shot. It's much more probable that they will emerge as products of evolutionary process through natural selection in many generations. The process will be continued by artificial selection. The variations of their characteristics will shift from mainly provided by random mutation to a more directed intentional changes.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/04/2021 02:38:13
The conscious beings exist in the future could include the continuation of our ego, our direct descendants, or something else that we create. They are basically modified duplicates of ourselves, better suited for future conditions. So if our actions now don't align with the goal of improving the well being of future conscious beings, those actions will be considered as wasteful, hence must be hindered.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/04/2021 05:56:17
Whatever the future conscious beings might be, they are extremely unlikely to appear suddenly out of nowhere in a single shot. It's much more probable that they will emerge as products of evolutionary process through natural selection in many generations. The process will be continued by artificial selection. The variations of their characteristics will shift from mainly provided by random mutation to a more directed intentional changes.Directed intentional changes means that before implementation, the changes would be simulated first in a virtual environment. It can be someone's brain or many types of computers, or some experimental setup. Only changes wich are expected to bring intended consequences and minimum unwanted side effects will then be implemented. Otherwise they would be discarded.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/04/2021 06:18:23
The article below says that life is abundant in the universe. We haven't made contact with extraterrestrial lives because of transportation and accommodation problems. If someday we eventually make first contact with them, it would be preferable to be on the side which has more advanced technology and philosophy.If we don't want future conscious beings to go extinct with the destruction of the earth, we must try to develop multiplanetary civilization, and then interstellar or even intergalactic civilization. It's evidently not easy tasks, since we haven't found any lifeform capable of forming even a multiplanetary civilization, although we are getting closer to that feat.
https://www.sci-nature.vip/2020/10/astronomers-admit-we-were-wrong100.html?m=1&s=03
Astronomers Admit: We Were Wrong—100 Billion Habitable Earth-Like Planets In Our Galaxy AloneQuoteEstimates by astronomers indicate that there could be more than 100 BILLION Earth-like worlds in the Milky Way that could be home to life. Think that’s a big number? According to astronomers, there are roughly 500 billion galaxies in the known universe, which means there are around 50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (5×1022) habitable planets. That’s of course if there’s just ONE universe.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/04/2021 22:10:58
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/04/2021 13:55:47
We will be forced to change our terminal goal every time it expires, until it is the same as the universal terminal goal, or we stop existing.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/04/2021 14:38:06
Post by: alancalverd on 22/04/2021 14:56:53
Why?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/04/2021 15:19:33
"...and we should do it now" (Elon Musk)Now is the only time when we can really make a change. Time is considered as a precious resource which should not be spent in vain. The longer we wait, the less time we can use to execute our plans, and the higher the risk of failure.
Why?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/04/2021 22:46:50
As society gets closer to human-level AI, scientists debate what it means to exist.
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Imagine you undergo a procedure in which every neuron in your brain is gradually replaced by functionally-equivalent electronic components. Let’s say the replacement occurs a single neuron at a time, and that behaviorally, nothing about you changes. From the outside, you are still “you,” even to your closest friends and loved ones.
What would happen to your consciousness? Would it incrementally disappear, one neuron at a time? Would it suddenly blink out of existence after the replacement of some consciousness-critical particle in your posterior cortex? Or would you simply remain you, fully aware of your lived experience and sentience (and either pleased or horrified that your mind could theoretically be preserved forever)?
This famous consciousness thought experiment, proposed by the philosopher David Chalmers in his 1995 paper Absent Qualia, Fading Qualia, Dancing Qualia, raises just about every salient question there is in the debate surrounding the possibility of consciousness in artificial intelligence.
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Futurist Ray Kurzweil, the computer scientist behind music-synthesizer and text-to-speech technologies, is a believer in the fast approach of the singularity as well. Kurzweil is so confident in the speed of this development that he’s betting hard. Literally, he’s wagering Kapor $10,000 that a machine intelligence will be able to pass the Turing test, a challenge that determines whether a computer can trick a human judge into thinking it itself is human, by 2029.
Shortly after that, as he says in a recent talk with Society for Science, humanity will merge with the technology it has created, uploading our minds to the cloud. As admirable as that optimism is, this seems unlikely, given our newly-forming understanding of the brain and its relationship to consciousness.
https://interestingengineering.com/will-ai-ever-be-conscious
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/04/2021 15:53:39
There will be some people or other conscious lifeforms who act as if there is no such thing as a universal terminal goal. Hence they effectively replace it with some arbitrarily chosen non-universal terminal goals.Some of those non-universal terminal goals may bring consequences which effectively obstruct or even prevent the achievement of the universal terminal goal.
Other conscious agents who already acknowledge the universal terminal goal should prepare some counter measures for that case. Establishing a universal moral standard is one of them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/04/2021 13:35:02
An interstellar or intergalactic civilization will have to deal with communication and transportation problems. Interactions among different stellar or galactic systems can't happen in real time. We will have limited bandwidth and big latency problems. The solutions must contain decentralisation or localization of resources, akin to edge computing I've mentioned in another thread. Local problems are better solved locally. Global problems are better solved globally. Universal problems are better solved universally.There's some balance between centralization and decentralisation process. Centralization has the advantage due to economy of scale. It's more obvious for complex processes involving many different parts. Different processes can share the same facilities. Waste or side products from a process can be used as raw materials for another process.
On the other hand, decentralisation has its own advantages. It has lower distribution costs. It's where the distance between resource productions and resource consumptions can be minimized.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/04/2021 23:00:20
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Telos has been consistently used in the writings of Aristotle, in which the term, on several occasions, denotes 'goal'.[6] It is considered synonymous to teleute ('end'), particularly in Aristotle's discourse about the plot-structure in Poetics.[6] The philosopher went as far as to say that telos can encompass all forms of human activity.[7] One can say, for instance, that the telos of warfare is victory, or the telos of business is the creation of wealth. Within this conceptualization, there are telos that are subordinate to other telos, as all activities have their own, respective goals.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telos
For Aristotle, these subordinate telos can become the means to achieve more fundamental telos.[7] Through this concept, for instance, the philosopher underscored the importance of politics and that all other fields are subservient to it. He explained that the telos of the blacksmith is the production of a sword, while that of the swordsman's, which uses the weapon as a tool, is to kill or incapacitate an enemy.[8] On the other hand, the telos of these occupations are merely part of the purpose of a ruler, who must oversee the direction and well-being of a state.
Aristotle already acknowledged the difference between terminal goal and instrumental goal, which he called telos and techne.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/04/2021 11:40:24
Previously I've described consciousness as superset of intelligence. In other words, it takes more than intelligence to become conscious.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/04/2021 12:50:40
More complex problems require more complex solutions. Such as adding one or more hidden layers between inputs and outputs. Feelings and emotional responses resemble these processes. Rational thoughts require more hidden layers. That's why they are called deep neural networks.
In complex organisms capable of rational thoughts, emotion and reflex are usually still kept functional. They can provide shortcuts to provide solutions for many simple problems requiring less time and computational resources.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/04/2021 13:06:08
Simple organisms with no internal feedback mechanism must rely on external feedbacks to evaluate their actions. Their survival from an event is their positive feedback, while their death is their negative feedback. It's extremely hard to learn when your own death is your only negative feedback. In artificial neural networks, the learning process is done by adjusting weight of neural connections through back propagation. No learning is possible when the whole network is destroyed.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/04/2021 13:02:14
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David Chalmers’s (1995) hard problem famously states: “It is widely agreed that experience arises from a physical basis, but we have no good explanation of why and how it so arises.” Thomas Nagel (1974) wrote something similar: “If we acknowledge that a physical theory of mind must account for the subjective character of experience, we must admit that no presently available conception gives us a clue about how this could be done.” This presentation will point the way towards the long-sought “good explanation” -- or at least it will provide “a clue”. Prof Solms will make three points:
(1) It is unfortunate that cognitive science took vision as its model example when looking for a ‘neural correlate of consciousness’ because cortical vision (like most cognitive processes) is not intrinsically conscious. There is not necessarily ‘something it is like’ to see.
(2) Affective feeling, by contrast, is conscious by definition. You cannot feel something without feeling it. Moreover, affective feeling, generated in the upper brainstem, is the foundational form of consciousness: prerequisite for all the higher cognitive forms.
(3) The functional mechanism of feeling explains why and how it cannot go on ‘in the dark’, free of any inner feel. Affect enables the organism to monitor deviations from its expected self-states in uncertain situations and thereby frees homeostasis from the limitations of automatism. As Nagel says, “An organism has conscious mental states if and only if there is something that it is like to be that organism—something it is like for the organism.” Affect literally constitutes the sentient subject.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/04/2021 13:03:38
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Mark Solms discusses his new theory of consciousness that returns emotions to the centre of mental life.
Understanding why we feel a subjective sense of self and how it arises in the brain seems like an impossible task. Mark explores the subjective experiences of hundreds of neurological patients, many of whom he treated. Their uncanny conversations help to expose the brain’s obscure reaches.
Mark Solms has spent his entire career investigating the mysteries of consciousness. Best known for identifying the brain mechanisms of dreaming and for bringing psychoanalytic insights into modern neuroscience, he is director of neuropsychology in the Neuroscience Institute of the University of Cape Town, honorary lecturer in neurosurgery at the Royal London Hospital School of Medicine, and an honorary fellow of the American College of Psychiatrists.
This talk was livestreamed by the Ri on 28 January 2021.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/04/2021 13:34:06
IMO, feeling alone is not adequate to describe consciousness. Intoxicated persons with various degrees/magnitudes have different levels of functionalities in their input functions, memory, cognitive, verbal, and motoric functions. Hallucination and dizziness are factors reducing overall consciousness. The same person has different level of consciousness while in REM phase, deep sleep, or coma.Quote(2) Affective feeling, by contrast, is conscious by definition.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/04/2021 23:01:11
Among human senses, vision provides highest resolution inputs. It can reach objects from long distances as well as shorter ones. The way we imagine our environments are usually done in visual representation. It's hard to do that through other type of senses such as taste or auditory.Quote(1) It is unfortunate that cognitive science took vision as its model example when looking for a ‘neural correlate of consciousness’ because cortical vision (like most cognitive processes) is not intrinsically conscious. There is not necessarily ‘something it is like’ to see.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/04/2021 10:05:49
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2021 07:19:13
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Watch Yuval Noah Harari speak with Fei-Fei Li, renowned computer scientist and Co-Director of Stanford University's Human-Centered AI Institute -- in a conversation moderated by Nicholas Thompson, WIRED's Editor-in-Chief. The discussion explores big themes and ideas, including ethics in technology, hacking humans, free will, and how to avoid potential dystopian scenarios.
The event was hosted at Stanford in April 2019, and was jointly sponsored by the university's Humanities Center, McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society, and the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI).
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11:45 Unlike philosophers who are extremely patient people, they can discuss something for thousands of years without reaching any agreement and they are fine with that, the engineers won't wait. And even if the engineers are willing to wait, the investors behind them won't wait.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 15:56:18
Vision alone only covers input part of a conscious system. It still requires other parts like self awareness, preference or feedback mechanism, and output or actuating system to change its environment. However, it's possible to build a conscious system where its input from environment is exclusively visual.Among human senses, vision provides highest resolution inputs. It can reach objects from long distances as well as shorter ones. The way we imagine our environments are usually done in visual representation. It's hard to do that through other type of senses such as taste or auditory.Quote(1) It is unfortunate that cognitive science took vision as its model example when looking for a ‘neural correlate of consciousness’ because cortical vision (like most cognitive processes) is not intrinsically conscious. There is not necessarily ‘something it is like’ to see.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 16:38:29
David Chalmers’s (1995) hard problem famously states: “It is widely agreed that experience arises from a physical basis, but we have no good explanation of why and how it so arises.” Thomas Nagel (1974) wrote something similar: “If we acknowledge that a physical theory of mind must account for the subjective character of experience, we must admit that no presently available conception gives us a clue about how this could be done.”There are several ways for a problem to be harder to solve.
- add more parameters, hence increasing the precision.
- add uncertainty by removing some important information.
- add false assumptions or information which are subtle and hard to identify.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 16:45:52
Understanding why we feel a subjective sense of self and how it arises in the brain seems like an impossible task. Mark explores the subjective experiences of hundreds of neurological patients, many of whom he treated. Their uncanny conversations help to expose the brain’s obscure reaches.His career seems to make him heavily biased towards human consciousness, and obstruct his insights into alternative forms of consciousness. It appears to me that he has taken Chalmers'and Nagel's conclusions uncritically, in contrast to other alternative explanations.
Mark Solms has spent his entire career investigating the mysteries of consciousness. Best known for identifying the brain mechanisms of dreaming and for bringing psychoanalytic insights into modern neuroscience, he is director of neuropsychology in the Neuroscience Institute of the University of Cape Town, honorary lecturer in neurosurgery at the Royal London Hospital School of Medicine, and an honorary fellow of the American College of Psychiatrists.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 17:26:45
Vision alone only covers input part of a conscious system. It still requires other parts like self awareness, preference or feedback mechanism, and output or actuating system to change its environment. However, it's possible to build a conscious system where its input from environment is exclusively visual.It looks like those subsystems of conscious entities contribute to overall consciousness, while their effectiveness can be independent from each others. In this case, overall consciousness can be represented as the result of matrix multiplication of the subsystem's effectiveness to achieve their respective goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 22:20:12
Vision alone only covers input part of a conscious system. It still requires other parts like self awareness, preference or feedback mechanism, and output or actuating system to change its environment. However, it's possible to build a conscious system where its input from environment is exclusively visual.It's no surprise that Tesla's full self driving cars will be based on vision. It would be rather surprising if they were based on other types of senses, such as sound, smell, touch, or taste.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/05/2021 23:09:49
But there are possible alternatives, such as optical computers, electromechanical, mechanical, hydraulic, and pneumatic computers.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 06:36:40
But there are possible alternatives, such as optical computers, electromechanical, mechanical, hydraulic, and pneumatic computers.Most of those alternatives are evidently less effective and efficient, also much slower than current standard computers. But knowing about them may become valuable when they are the only options available for us.
Quote
Scientists have found that a brainless, single-celled organism is capable of solving mazes and even learning. This remarkable organism is broadly known as slime mold, though there are many kinds.https://appvoices.org/2019/10/11/slime-mold-intelligence/
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 11:18:12
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 14:41:20
This number can be depicted as the angle directing a vector in complex plane.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 17:45:24
This number can be depicted as the angle directing a vector in complex plane.This raises question, what's the reference to measure the angle? An arbitrarily chosen terminal goal of a system must coincide with itself. Hence it takes something else as external reference.
As long as a system doesn't cover the whole universe, it must be a part of a bigger system. So, we can use the terminal goal of this bigger system as the reference to measure the goal alignment of its subsystems.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 21:51:41
As long as a system doesn't cover the whole universe, it must be a part of a bigger system. So, we can use the terminal goal of this bigger system as the reference to measure the goal alignment of its subsystems.Here are some concrete examples to help understanding the concept. A scout ant whose terminal goal is to find food is aligned with the terminal goal of ant colony, which is to thrive.
A corrupt politicians whose terminal goal is to enrich himself in the expense of his people is opposed to the terminal goal of his country. This will yield a negative value of consciousness. The more resources and power given to him, the harder it gets to achieve his country's terminal goal.
A psychopathic serial killer whose goal is to get personal pleasure by killing innocent people is opposed to the goal of his society.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 22:45:27
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_July_plot
The conspirators of 20 July plot have opposite alignment with Nazi government, which in turn has opposite alignment with global civilization.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2021 23:23:10
As long as a system doesn't cover the whole universe, it must be a part of a bigger system. So, we can use the terminal goal of this bigger system as the reference to measure the goal alignment of its subsystems.If human civilization expands into multistellar civilization, it's likely that we will eventually encounter other civilizations who also has passed the great filter. We will form a larger system of consciousness.
On the other hand, if we can survive long enough confined in a single planet, we will eventually be found by other civilization with more advanced technology to reach us here.
Another possibility is that we already extinct before any of above cases happens. It would means that everything that we have done become useless.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 04:59:22
Another possibility is that we already extinct before any of above cases happens. It would means that everything that we have done become useless.It seems like nihilists have taken this almost worst case scenario for granted. They were unable to think of possibilities for better cases I mentioned previously.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 05:14:42
11:45 Unlike philosophers who are extremely patient people, they can discuss something for thousands of years without reaching any agreement and they are fine with that, the engineers won't wait. And even if the engineers are willing to wait, the investors behind them won't wait.To be fair to the philosophers, I have to mention what their job is according to themselves. In an interview, a philosopher said that the job of philosophers are to make explicit something that people take for granted in everyday/practical conversations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 12:22:58
in 51:15 they argue about centralization vs decentralization.
I've put my thought into this issue in my previous post.
An interstellar or intergalactic civilization will have to deal with communication and transportation problems. Interactions among different stellar or galactic systems can't happen in real time. We will have limited bandwidth and big latency problems. The solutions must contain decentralisation or localization of resources, akin to edge computing I've mentioned in another thread. Local problems are better solved locally. Global problems are better solved globally. Universal problems are better solved universally.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 12:38:01
Quote
The people that are easiest to manipulate are the people who believe in free will, and will simply identify with whatever thought or desire pops up in their mind because they cannot even imagine that this desire is not a result of my free will, it is the result of some external manipulation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 23:30:04
In some languages, as well as many branches of math, a double negative can yield a positive result. Enemy of our enemy is our friend.I think it's important for humanity to keep their terminal goal aligned with the universal terminal goal. Otherwise, our existence would be seen as obstacle by larger conscious entity that would emerge in the future. If that's the case, our efforts would just become wasting of time and other resources, and we would be better off extinct as soon as possible.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Valkyrie
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/20_July_plot
The conspirators of 20 July plot have opposite alignment with Nazi government, which in turn has opposite alignment with global civilization.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2021 23:31:10
Our efforts to achieve our goals are evaluated by their effectiveness and efficiency. An effort is said to be effective if doing it can get us closer to our goal, compared to if it's not done. An effort is said to be efficient if most resources we put into it are actually used to achieve our goals, and least of them are wasted without added value.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2021 11:06:56
Before continuing on instrumental goal, I'd like to share a discussion about nihilism.Another possibility is that we already extinct before any of above cases happens. It would means that everything that we have done become useless.It seems like nihilists have taken this almost worst case scenario for granted. They were unable to think of possibilities for better cases I mentioned previously.
Should We All Be Nihilists? (Feat. Rationality Rules and Rachel Oates)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2021 13:03:37
Our efforts to achieve our goals are evaluated by their effectiveness and efficiency. An effort is said to be effective if doing it can get us closer to our goal, compared to if it's not done. An effort is said to be efficient if most resources we put into it are actually used to achieve our goals, and least of them are wasted without added value.Efficiency is usually expressed as ratio. 100% means 0 resource is wasted, while 0% means nothing but wastes.
There is 1 common mistake we often make, which is not treating time as a valuable resource. It tends to make us overestimate the efficiency of our efforts.
Post by: Origin on 04/05/2021 13:08:21
I haven't read any of your blog here, I just was noticing that you seem to be having an involved discussion with yourself. Kind of strange and pointless. Anyway, sorry to interrupt, I will let you get back to you and yourself having your little talk.Before continuing on instrumental goal, I'd like to share a discussion about nihilism.Another possibility is that we already extinct before any of above cases happens. It would means that everything that we have done become useless.It seems like nihilists have taken this almost worst case scenario for granted. They were unable to think of possibilities for better cases I mentioned previously.
Should We All Be Nihilists? (Feat. Rationality Rules and Rachel Oates)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2021 14:03:16
I haven't read any of your blog here, I just was noticing that you seem to be having an involved discussion with yourself. Kind of strange and pointless. Anyway, sorry to interrupt, I will let you get back to you and yourself having your little talk.I have some ideas I'd like to share with everyone. I wrote them here to get some feedback from someone else who can see them from different perspective, discover my blind spot, and find errors in my reasoning.
I use this thread in this forum more like a sandbox, where I can write down raw ideas newly crossed my mind so I can refine it later after receiving some feedbacks and rethinking about them, and not just forget about them.
Perhaps you haven't found any point here precisely because you haven't read it yet. In which case I can only suggest you to start reading it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2021 23:01:46
Perhaps you haven't found any point here precisely because you haven't read it yet. In which case I can only suggest you to start reading it.Once in a while I summarized my ideas thus far by extracting core points and omitting non-essential parts, because the thread has gotten too large to read by a newly joined members in a single sitting time. I've already mentioned that I was planning to compile my ideas here into videos which I'll upload to my Youtube channel. Unfortunately I haven't found appropriate time to edit them yet.
After reading at least some ideas I put here, you may compare them with your own ideas that you currently have, and list down their differences and similarities with mine. You can then estimate which idea is better, and if it can be improved even further. If you think that my ideas are still imperfect, you can point out what kind of change can be made to improve them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2021 23:09:49
This thread is arranged in chronological order, based on when the ideas crossed my mind, and I had the time to write them down. But structurally, the idea start with finding the most fundamental truth which we can't deny, since denying it leads to contradiction. This brings me
Descartes' cogito ergo sum. But as soon as I started to work from there to get more practical concepts, Descartes failed miserably. Many thinkers who came after him have critisized his idea and tried to improve it by proposing some changes. But in none of them I found convincing argumentation leading to a universal terminal goal, and what should we try to achieve. It's necessary for us to prioritize our actions.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/05/2021 13:05:25
Efficiency is usually expressed as ratio. 100% means 0 resource is wasted, while 0% means nothing but wastes.As I mentioned earlier, efficiency is a universal instrumental goal. In practice, pursuing efficiency in one part of a system may cause inefficiency in some other parts of the same system. Hence we must find some balance to get optimum results.
There is 1 common mistake we often make, which is not treating time as a valuable resource. It tends to make us overestimate the efficiency of our efforts.
Some efforts to achieve efficiency are through centralization and decentralization. Though they may seem to be complete opposite, they share a common goal, which is to increase overall efficiency.
Is the Future of Factories micro or GIGA?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 14:06:38
Efficiency is usually expressed as ratio. 100% means 0 resource is wasted, while 0% means nothing but wastes.AFAIK, there's still no consensus to calculate effectiveness nor efficiency. They depend on how the goal is defined. It determines whether or not we can get overunity in effectiveness, or if our efforts can have negative effectiveness. Ditto for efficiency.
There is 1 common mistake we often make, which is not treating time as a valuable resource. It tends to make us overestimate the efficiency of our efforts.
For example, the goal is to walk 10000 steps in a day. The method is by walking to and from work place, instead of using vehicles. If it turns out we walk 12000 steps a day, would we say that the effectiveness of our method 120%, instead of 100%?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 14:44:57
Quote
Qin Shi Huang drank mercury, thinking it would give him eternal life. Hugely ambitious, Qin Shi Huang sought eternal life. He dispatched a minister overseas, never to return, in search of a magic potion."The army that conquered the world - BBC Culture" https://www.bbc.com/culture/article/20170411-the-army-that-conquered-the-world
Do we count the effectiveness of his effort 0 or was it -100%?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 16:28:19
Winning a skirmish battle and winning a war are often cited as examples of instrumental and terminal goals, respectively.
In ancient times, losing a war can mean a complete destruction of a civilization, like what happened to the Canaanites. But in modern day, it may not be the case anymore. Germans lost both world wars, but now they are among wealthiest countriest in Europe, even on earth.
It shows us that even winning a war is just an instrumental goal to help achieving a longer term terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 16:43:58
The question is, how far we can improve them? Is there any inherent limitations to the change which should not be exceeded?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 21:50:51
The question is, how far we can improve them? Is there any inherent limitations to the change which should not be exceeded?My answer is no. Although, there's a practical limit, due to finite resources available to a system. So, beyond some point, increasing our capacity in one sector would inevitably reduces our capacity in some other sectors. These reduction in some sectors have their limits, beyond which the system can no longer functions effectively. That's why we need to achieve some balance in resources distribution to optimize the usage of our finite available resources to maximize overall performance.
Post by: Origin on 08/05/2021 22:24:51
The question is, how far we can improve them? Is there any inherent limitations to the change which should not be exceeded?I don't know or care what you are talking about, but it's pretty funny to watch you have a in depth conversation with yourself.My answer is no.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 22:59:14
That's why we need to achieve some balance in resources distribution to optimize the usage of our finite available resources to maximize overall performance.
The problem of optimizing resources distribution is not restricted to individual level. It also applies to the subsystems as well as superorganism level.
In any level, optimizing resources distribution requires some methods of information exchange or signalling among parts of the system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 23:21:29
I don't know or care what you are talking about, but it's pretty funny to watch you have a in depth conversation with yourself.I'm glad that my posts can be entertaining to you, who don't even know or care what they mean. It looks like you care enough to post some comments here, despite your claim.
I'm also curious, which part of my statements you still don't understand? Have you read them yet? Do you want to deliberately ignore them? What's your motivation to prevent me and others to discuss this matters?
In my previous posts I've mentioned the importance of getting the correct answer to the question about our terminal goals. Not knowing them would render our actions ineffective and inefficient. It would leave us directed by instinct and emotions, which may not serve us well in the long term journey of life, and often generate regrets.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/05/2021 23:53:04
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 07:23:35
When you wake up everyday, have you ever wonder why you do whatever you are going to do that day? What's their purpose? What your life is for? Why you try to stay alive if life is meaningless?I don't know or care what you are talking about, but it's pretty funny to watch you have a in depth conversation with yourself.I'm glad that my posts can be entertaining to you, who don't even know or care what they mean. It looks like you care enough to post some comments here, despite your claim.
I'm also curious, which part of my statements you still don't understand? Have you read them yet? Do you want to deliberately ignore them? What's your motivation to prevent me and others to discuss this matters?
In my previous posts I've mentioned the importance of getting the correct answer to the question about our terminal goals. Not knowing them would render our actions ineffective and inefficient. It would leave us directed by instinct and emotions, which may not serve us well in the long term journey of life.
The fact that you posted here proves that you are not a practical nihilist, despite the content of your posts seemingly contradicting it. But things that you do indicate who you are better than words that you say.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 11:47:37
The problem of optimizing resources distribution is not restricted to individual level. It also applies to the subsystems as well as superorganism level.In early human societies, redistributing resources were done in several ways. Preys caught by a hunter gatherer group could be simply shared to its members. If they had no record keeping mechanism to track how much resources produced and consumed by each member, the group is vulnerable from being a victim of freeloaders. The most primitive form of that record keeping is by memorizing resource exchanges, productions or acquisitions, and consumptions by each member, which is done collectively by other members.
In any level, optimizing resources distribution requires some methods of information exchange or signalling among parts of the system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 16:29:38
Although you are not a practical nihilist, you may suspect that life is ultimately meaningless. You are just not sure yet, so you want to live another day to make sure and see if your assessment is correct.When you wake up everyday, have you ever wonder why you do whatever you are going to do that day? What's their purpose? What your life is for? Why you try to stay alive if life is meaningless?I don't know or care what you are talking about, but it's pretty funny to watch you have a in depth conversation with yourself.I'm glad that my posts can be entertaining to you, who don't even know or care what they mean. It looks like you care enough to post some comments here, despite your claim.
I'm also curious, which part of my statements you still don't understand? Have you read them yet? Do you want to deliberately ignore them? What's your motivation to prevent me and others to discuss this matters?
In my previous posts I've mentioned the importance of getting the correct answer to the question about our terminal goals. Not knowing them would render our actions ineffective and inefficient. It would leave us directed by instinct and emotions, which may not serve us well in the long term journey of life.
The fact that you posted here proves that you are not a practical nihilist, despite the content of your posts seemingly contradicting it. But things that you do indicate who you are better than words that you say.
Your comments show that you are not passionate enough to search for the answer yourself by filtering and processing raw data to get a most likely answer. Maybe you just want someone to give you a clean final conclusion without bothering to know how it was obtained, so you can use your time and energy better on some more important tasks. That's fine with me. I believe that you are not the only one.
In case you are a nihilist, you would think that everything you do is ultimately meaningless. You'll do whatever pleases you. You only follow rules in society just because violating them would bring you unpleasant consequences. If that's the case, you are no longer a pure nihilist. Getting pleasant experience has become your terminal goal. Pure nihilists won't care if their experiences are pleasant or not. They don't even care if they would live or die, since they think that in the end, nothing really matters.
If you are not a nihilist, then there are some conditions that you think are better than some other conditions. If you list down all imaginable conditions, you can sort them out from the least preferred to the most preferred conditions. Achieving the most preferable condition for you would become your terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 21:46:46
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.I can understand that newly joined members in this thread haven't read this yet, since many more replies have been posted since then. I can't expect everyone to read every post from beginning to the end when they join the discussion.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
So, if you think that you can imagine an even better case scenario, please let me know. Because subsequent reasoning I'm planning to post here will be based on this conclusion. If it turns out to be false, I would be wasting a lot of time and efforts trying to understand the reality in this framework.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 22:19:29
Building more accurate and precise virtual universe is another important effort we can do to achieve universal terminal goal. So we would know in advance if something bad is going to happen and we can do something to prevent or mitigate it. For example, we have already mapped life threatening space objects around earth orbit. We need to continually update and improve it, and also expand the scope to include larger scale of the universe, as well as other kind of threats such as out of controlled AGI, climate change, or a global pandemic.There will be some people or other conscious lifeforms who act as if there is no such thing as a universal terminal goal. Hence they effectively replace it with some arbitrarily chosen non-universal terminal goals.Some of those non-universal terminal goals may bring consequences which effectively obstruct or even prevent the achievement of the universal terminal goal.
Other conscious agents who already acknowledge the universal terminal goal should prepare some counter measures for that case. Establishing a universal moral standard is one of them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2021 23:12:57
In Universal Morality thread, I discuss morality starting from its widely used definitions, and comparing morality from the perspective of earlier thinkers. My conclusion so far is that morality can be generalized as a tool to protect conscious entities/systems from potential harms caused by behaviors of their conscious agents/subsystems.
In Virtual Universe thread, I discuss about current progress we made in modeling objective reality, so it may look like breaking news. But I also intend to dive deeper into technical details there. The virtual universe is also a tool to help us achieving our terminal goal by predicting consequences of our available actions and selecting the most preferred results as the basis of our decisions. In other words, it's a tool to avoid regrets.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/05/2021 16:16:48
Our perception of the goal, whether it's perceived as terminal or instrumental goal may influence our calculation of effectiveness and efficiency. Failing to achieve instrumental goals is generally more acceptable than failing to achieve terminal goals.Let's contemplate some similar goals which only differ in time scale.
Winning a skirmish battle and winning a war are often cited as examples of instrumental and terminal goals, respectively.
In ancient times, losing a war can mean a complete destruction of a civilization, like what happened to the Canaanites. But in modern day, it may not be the case anymore. Germans lost both world wars, but now they are among wealthiest countriest in Europe, even on earth.
It shows us that even winning a war is just an instrumental goal to help achieving a longer term terminal goal.
- I want to live to pass another day.
- I want to live to pass another year.
- I want to live to pass through technological singularity, which is expected to arrive before the end of this century.
- I want to live forever.
It's clear that the former goals become instrumental for the later goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/05/2021 06:59:39
At the end of the video, marked 1:24:00, the host asked a profound question, which is closely related to my last post here.It's Alive, But Is It Life: Synthetic Biology and the Future of CreationProfound question about morality was asked in 1:00:00 mark. It's remarkable that this video was uploaded in 2016, as if it's foreseeing our current situation.QuoteFor decades, biologists have read and edited DNA, the code of life. Revolutionary developments are giving scientists the power to write it. Instead of tinkering with existing life forms, synthetic biologists may be on the verge of writing the DNA of a living organism from scratch. In the next decade, according to some, we may even see the first synthetic human genome. Join a distinguished group of synthetic biologists, geneticists and bioengineers who are edging closer to breathing life into matter.
This program is part of the Big Ideas Series, made possible with support from the John Templeton Foundation.
Original Program Date: June 4, 2016
MODERATOR: Robert Krulwich
PARTICIPANTS: George Church, Drew Endy, Tom Knight, Pamela SilverQuoteSynthetic Biology and the Future of Creation 00:00
Participant Intros 3:25
Ordering DNA from the internet 8:10
How much does it cost to make a synthetic human? 13:04
Why is yeast the best catalyst 20:10
How George Church printed 90 billion copies of his book 26:05
Creating synthetic rose oil 28:35
Safety engineering and synthetic biology 37:15
Do we want to be invaded by bad bacteria? 45:26
Do you need a human gene's to create human cells? 55:09
The standard of DNA sequencing in utero 1:02:27
The science community is divided by closed press meetings 1:11:30
The Human Genome Project. What is it? 1:21:45
"Will we be able to make people with artificial genome? If we will, should we?"
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/05/2021 11:27:31
Let's contemplate some similar goals which only differ in time scale.From Descartes' cogito, we know that ultimate knowledge is subjective. The best case scenario for me would be, I become part of conscious systems that last forever.
- I want to live to pass another day.
- I want to live to pass another year.
- I want to live to pass through technological singularity, which is expected to arrive before the end of this century.
- I want to live forever.
It's clear that the former goals become instrumental for the later goals.
But my experience says, based on analogy with other conscious agents physically similar to me, which have ended up dead, I will also end up dead. Without some significant improvement, if I do business as usual, I can only expect to live for a few decades more.
So, the only hope to get closer to the best case scenario is to improve myself to be more tolerant of various conditions I might have to deal with in the future. The improvement will involve additions, removal, and replacement of some of my existing subsystems, including genetic and epigenetic types.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/05/2021 15:13:13
Even now, it hasn't been widely available for those who want it. But it's about to change pretty soon.
Note that even designer babies that ignited debates on morality don't preserve continuation of experience of their parents.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/05/2021 07:37:35
So, the only hope to get closer to the best case scenario is to improve myself to be more tolerant of various conditions I might have to deal with in the future. The improvement will involve additions, removal, and replacement of some of my existing subsystems, including genetic and epigenetic types.Traditionally, I can send some modified versions of myself to the future by sexual reproduction. But there's no guarantee that they will be better than me. Some of them are likely even worse.
Furthermore, I can only contribute half of my unique genes. Half of them must come from my spouse. Almost all of my genes are shared with other humans.
Statistically, random mutation produces detrimental genes more often than beneficial ones. Accumulation of beneficial genes must rely on natural selection, or artificial selection like domestication. But that would include reproduction of numerous copies and removal of most of them, which is not very efficient.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/05/2021 13:31:43
Statistically, random mutation produces detrimental genes more often than beneficial ones. Accumulation of beneficial genes must rely on natural selection, or artificial selection like domestication. But that would include reproduction of numerous copies and removal of most of them, which is not very efficient.For organism with a few hundred base pairs, accumulating beneficial genes while avoiding detrimental genes through random mutation is still achievable, as long as they can reproduce in adequately large number of copies. With more genes accumulation, it becomes harder to avoid getting detrimental genes. More copies of organisms are required to get there.
For complex organisms with billions of base pairs, this strategy wouldn't work. There are too many copies required to get one free of detrimental genes. This problem can be solved by being diploid/polyploid, and combination of sexual reproduction, sexual and social selection.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/05/2021 22:54:45
Almost all of my genes are shared with other humans.This fact alone should be enough to justify our tendency for having altruistic behaviors towards strangers. But we also need to remember that genetic is not the only factor determining human behavior. As often mentioned by Yuval Noah Harari, we can basically conquer the earth by inventing stories collectively believed by millions of us. He even specified the stories as fiction. But I prefer to use a more general term, which is meme, since it doesn't exclude stories based mostly on facts.
Nowadays, we can find many bad behaviors which were started from bad memes. They have caused unnecessary sufferings, lost of lives, properties, and other resources which made it harder to achieve our terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/05/2021 01:24:01
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/05/2021 09:08:54
Let's get back to resources distribution. Simpler organisms have been practicing resources distribution long before humans even existed. Birds and mammals share food with their offspring. Ant and bee scouts share food with other members of their colonies.The problem of optimizing resources distribution is not restricted to individual level. It also applies to the subsystems as well as superorganism level.In early human societies, redistributing resources were done in several ways. Preys caught by a hunter gatherer group could be simply shared to its members. If they had no record keeping mechanism to track how much resources produced and consumed by each member, the group is vulnerable from being a victim of freeloaders. The most primitive form of that record keeping is by memorizing resource exchanges, productions or acquisitions, and consumptions by each member, which is done collectively by other members.
In any level, optimizing resources distribution requires some methods of information exchange or signalling among parts of the system.
In the case of parents giving foods to their offsprings, there's no need for record keeping, since the relationship is not equally reciprocal. The offsprings only have to provide service for the parents in the form of carrying their genes into the future. This situation opened opportunity for brood parasites such as cuckoos.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/05/2021 23:42:47
In the case of parents giving foods to their offsprings, there's no need for record keeping, since the relationship is not equally reciprocal. The offsprings only have to provide service for the parents in the form of carrying their genes into the future.For those who haven't found their purpose of their lives, this reminds us that our ancestors lived and died in the past so we can live the way we are now. Likewise, we live now so our successors will live better lives in the future.
Unlike before, we are starting to realize that discontinuity of identities and experiences are no longer seen as inevitable necessities for going forward with our lives. Advancements in biotechnology, robotics, AI, and nanotechnology are things that will make it possible.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/05/2021 07:05:53
Unlike before, we are starting to realize that discontinuity of identities and experiences are no longer seen as inevitable necessities for going forward with our lives.Just in case you are confused by the statement above, I'll give an illustration. My current body consists of different molecules and atoms than my body when I was born, so do my memories and experiences. But I retain my identity since the changes are always gradual.
But my identity is different from my parents, although I carry most of their genes and body plans. it's due to discontinuity of body composition and experience memories between mine and theirs.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/05/2021 13:32:16
Let's get back to resources distribution. Simpler organisms have been practicing resources distribution long before humans even existed.A simple example of resources distribution in reciprocal setup is shown in tit for tat situation.
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Tit for tat is an English saying meaning "equivalent retaliation". It developed from "tip for tap", first recorded in 1558. It is also a highly effective strategy in game theory. An agent using this strategy will first cooperate, then subsequently replicate an opponent's previous action.To stay alive, an organism usually needs to consume a certain amount of resources. But the resources it can produce or acquire may fluctuate over time. Sometimes it doesn't meet the bare minimum.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tit_for_tat
Having companion to share resources can smooth out the quantity fluctuation of resources production and consumption, so they can overcome their hard times. Tit for tat strategy can be seen as an early form of insurance or debts. The records are kept in the brain of the participants.
For the scheme to work sustainably, it is necessary that the average resources production can keep up with consumption.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/05/2021 12:34:44
For the scheme to work sustainably, it is necessary that the average resources production can keep up with consumption.It's important to note that some kind of resources have expiry time. Excess of production will be wasted when they are expired. The resource sharing strategy can be helpful here.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/05/2021 12:42:38
They are my attempt to make sense of modern financial systems from the perspective of universal consciousness. I'm trying to build a stream of reasoning starting from the most fundamental principles, and then only add barely minimum assumptions to get to currently existing complex financial systems.
I was interested in this since the news around gamestop stock short squeeze, and then speculation on crypto currency, to money printing frenzy through stimulus checks. I want to know the fundamentals or first principles behind those seemingly irrational trends in modern economic activities.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/05/2021 22:28:56
So, it should be obvious that financial systems are just tools to distribute resources among their participants. They enable societies to utilize the economy of scale and skill specialization which make resources production more effective and efficient.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2021 05:29:23
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2021 12:11:43
It's important to note that some kind of resources have expiry time. Excess of production will be wasted when they are expired. The resource sharing strategy can be helpful here.It's obvious that some resources have much longer expiry time than some others. But some of those resources with short expiry time are essential for our lives. So, if someday we produce those kind of resources more than what we can consume, it would be better if we can find someone else who need them while also have other resources with longer expiry time to exchange. This situation started the use of commodity money.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2021 16:59:27
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2021 22:40:53
Competition forced us to improve our system's effectiveness and efficiency. It lead us to invent more complex financial instruments.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2021 23:49:02
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/05/2021 04:59:48
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In recent weeks America’s national debt has remerged as a major talking point. With Biden set to spend trillions on new initiatives, many in the Republican party are growing concerned by the scale of the debt. So in this video we explain the state of the US national debt & debate whether Biden’s spending is a good idea or not.
In the end, whose idea is better will be determined by who made more accurate assumptions. If the debt is used as investments which gives higher return than the debt plus interest rate, then it's surely a good decision. Otherwise, it would be bad.
Borrowing money to buy food is not necessarily a bad thing, especially if the energy we get from the food can be used for productive activities which gives higher value than the borrowed money.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/05/2021 22:47:55
Additional costs in transporting, storing, and protecting it from environmental factors as well as theft and robbery may outweigh the value of resources it supposed to save. This situation called for the invention of fiat currency.Theft and robbery are generally bad for the society. They reduce the quantity of resources available to the rest of the society, while producing nothing useful in return.
Response of the societies to these cases can determine their survival. They created moral rules and legal systems with reward and punishment to make their members well behaved. A common practice to enforce the law is by inventing the police institution.
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the civil force of a national or local government, responsible for the prevention and detection of crime and the maintenance of public order.Meanwhile, to protect from theft and robbery by rival societies, they created military forces. The forces can also be used to steal and rob from rival societies.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/05/2021 05:32:32
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Early in the Covid-19 pandemic, many of the world’s richest countries poured money into the race for a vaccine. Billions of dollars, from programs like the US’s Operation Warp Speed, funded development that brought us multiple Covid-19 vaccines in record time. But it also determined where those vaccines would go. Before vaccine doses had even hit the market, places like the US and the UK had bought up nearly the entire supply.
This turns out to be an old story. In nearly every modern global health crisis, from smallpox to malaria to H1N1, rich countries have bought up vital medical supplies, making poor countries wait sometimes decades for life-saving support. It’s effectively a system in which where you live determines whether you live or die of a preventable disease. Leaving a disease like Covid-19 to spread unchecked in some places also gives it a chance to mutate -- and variants of the virus are already raising alarms. So: how do we get vaccines to countries that can’t afford them?
One solution underway is called Covax. It’s a program co-led by the World Health Organization; Gavi, The Vaccine Alliance; and the Coalition of Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI). Its goal is to get vaccines to lower- and middle-income countries at the same time as rich countries. So how is it supposed to do that? And will it be enough?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/05/2021 16:21:25
This situation called for the invention of fiat currency.Earlier versions of fiat currency are likely used bilaterally between participants of a transaction. Instead of receiving commodity money in exchange for real resources, which is not urgently needed anyway, the resource supplier received bond certificate or some form of contract, that the resource consumer will return in the future.
There are times when the creditor can not collect the debt for various reasons, like they migrate to other places, or dead. There are also times when the creditor (resource producer) need to use the resources before the payment deadline, hence the debtors (resource consumer) haven't ready to pay the debts. In these cases, the creditor can exchange the contract or bond certificate to a third party with other resources.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/05/2021 05:25:25
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Experienced economist and not so experienced economist are walking down the road. They get across sh1t lying on the asphalt.This case shows that GDP alone is not adequately reflecting the wealth or economic well being of a society. It shows that without specifying our terminal goal, our efforts would be ineffective because we would confuse between terminal and instrumental goal, and make us use wrong prioritization.
Experienced economist: “If you eat it I’ll give you $20,000!”
Not so experienced economist runs his optimization problem and figures out he’s better off eating it so he does and collects money.
Continuing along the same road they almost step into yet another sh1t. Not so experienced economist: “Now, if YOU eat this sh1t I’ll give YOU $20,000.”
After evaluating the proposal experienced economist eats sh1t getting the money.
They go on. Not so experienced economist starts thinking: “Listen, we both have the same amount of money we had before, but we both ate sh1t. I don’t see us being better off.”
Experienced economist: “Well, that’s true, but you overlooked the fact that we’ve been just involved in $40,000 of trade.”
In the game of life, survival is the prize, while extinction is the penalty.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/05/2021 08:42:11
A common practice to enforce the law is by inventing the police institution.Running these institutions requires some resources provided by the society. The burden is shared among society members as taxes.
Meanwhile, to protect from theft and robbery by rival societies, they created military forces.
In earlier times, taxes might be paid using consummable resources. But practicality would lead them to use commodity and fiat money.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/05/2021 22:00:17
And this escalated the need for multilateral usage of fiat currency. The creditor may want to sell some fraction of the bond certificate while keeping the rest of it. When the creditor was a bank, they issued banknotes.This situation called for the invention of fiat currency.Earlier versions of fiat currency are likely used bilaterally between participants of a transaction. Instead of receiving commodity money in exchange for real resources, which is not urgently needed anyway, the resource supplier received bond certificate or some form of contract, that the resource consumer will return in the future.
There are times when the creditor can not collect the debt for various reasons, like they migrate to other places, or dead. There are also times when the creditor (resource producer) need to use the resources before the payment deadline, hence the debtors (resource consumer) haven't ready to pay the debts. In these cases, the creditor can exchange the contract or bond certificate to a third party with other resources.
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A banknote (often known as a bill (in the US and Canada), paper money, or simply a note) is a type of negotiable promissory note, made by a bank or other licensed authority, payable to the bearer on demand. Banknotes were originally issued by commercial banks, which were legally required to redeem the notes for legal tender (usually gold or silver coin) when presented to the chief cashier of the originating bank. These commercial banknotes only traded at face value in the market served by the issuing bank.[1] Commercial banknotes have primarily been replaced by national banknotes issued by central banks or monetary authorities.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banknote
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e9/Billets_de_5000.jpg/220px-Billets_de_5000.jpg)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/05/2021 22:12:35
In the game of life, survival is the prize, while extinction is the penalty.I'd like to remind you that the prize is not necessarily awarded to the particular individuals who won the game. It could be some duplicate copies of them. While defending ant colony, some workers and soldiers may die, but the colony, which contains their copies, can survive. While defending against microbial parasites, some of our white blood cells may die, but we, which contains their copies, can survive.
Everyone of us is a modified copy of who we were. Our body compositions are pretty much different than how they were when we were born. We are also modified copies of our ancestors. Their deaths don't necessarily mean that they've lost the game of life. The extinction of our non-human ancestors don't mean that they failed either, since we are here to continue their legacy. Even the extinction of human species doesn't necessarily mean our failure, as long as we can produce/raise our successors who will continue our efforts to achieve our terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/05/2021 02:39:49
And this escalated the need for multilateral usage of fiat currency. The creditor may want to sell some fraction of the bond certificate while keeping the rest of it. When the creditor was a bank, they issued banknotes.So far, we have reconstructed the evolution of money based on logical necessity, driven by efficiency, which is a universal instrumental goal. I've mentioned before that there are two types of improvement, i. e. generalization and specialization. They are simply adding necessary functions and removing unnecessary functions, respectively.
In evolutionary biology, those steps are done by mutation and natural selection. Random mutation provides the beneficial genetic codes, along with other useless and even detrimental genes. Natural selection then removes some of those non-beneficial genes.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/05/2021 17:57:44
Someone got resources more than what they need.
Someone else got resources less than what they need, but are expected to produce more resources if they are helped to fulfill their current need.
The first one gives resources to the second one, with the promise of getting return in the future. The first is called creditor, while the second is called debtor. The money represents the promise.
When one or more of those conditions above are not fulfilled, the money system won't work effectively.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 04:45:16
When one or more of those conditions above are not fulfilled, the money system won't work effectively.In the case where no one has resources more than what they need, nothing we can do with money to make the situation better. To make money useful, we can create more resources.
Alternatively, we can reduce the consumption. In this case, it means killing someone who would consume resources.
Both solutions may bring unwanted consequences. In the first case, we might see environmental impacts such as air pollution. The second case could bring retaliation, war, and chaos in the society. Moral rules and laws are supposed to be the solution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 05:39:52
Someone else got resources less than what they need, but are expected to produce more resources if they are helped to fulfill their current need.If everyone has all the resources they need, money becomes useless. We may want to distinguish between need and want. But their differences don't seem to be a clear cut. It's sometimes only about priorities and taste.
What we want is simply what we need to fulfill our desires. Do we need/want to drink more water? Eat more food?
Do we need/want to have a house? car? smartphone? children?
Do we need/want to live healthier? longer? peacefully?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 07:54:18
We may want to distinguish between need and want. But their differences don't seem to be clear cut. It's sometimes only about priorities and taste.Someone may put the threshold for the need at bare minimum to survive, such as tolerable level of oxygen concentration, ambient temperature and pressure, gravitational, electric, and magnetic field. Someone else may include the requirements for longer periods of life, such as water, food, clothing, and shelters.
We may include things with less immediate impact to our lives, or those that are less life threatening. Do we need to have pleasure? Do we need to get happiness? Do we need to avoid pain and suffering?
But we may also ask the question in the other direction. Do we need to stay alive? Do we need to avoid death and extinction?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 09:35:04
Do we need to have pleasure? Do we need to get happiness? Do we need to avoid pain and suffering?We can't answer those questions until we determine our terminal goal. What we need are those required to achieve our goals. Without them, it would be impossible to achieve our goals.
But we may also ask the question in the other direction. Do we need to stay alive? Do we need to avoid death and extinction?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 12:22:38
The first one gives resources to the second one, with the promise of getting return in the future. The first is called creditor, while the second is called debtor. The money represents the promise.That's basically how any form of money work, from commodity money, fiat money, e-money, to crypto currency.
The success of monetary system relies on the assumptions that the participants keep their promises. The debtors can break their promises by not returning the resources as much value as they've promised. The creditors can break their promises by taking back more resources than the promised amount, or before the due date.
The system can also break down due to corrupted records of the promises. It can happen through random natural process or deliberately by a third party.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/05/2021 15:15:42
Someone else got resources less than what they need, but are expected to produce more resources if they are helped to fulfill their current need.It's expected that we can get more resources from the production process in the future than what's put into it now. The more resources we put into the process, the more resources we'll get in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/05/2021 11:38:14
The money represents the promise.Printing more money simply means making more promises. It's not necessarily bad, as long as the promises can be kept.
Making new promises by printing new money may motivate people to produce more resources. It also motivates to find a way to produce more than currently possible, i.e. it promotes innovation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/05/2021 12:58:44
With functional money, people with useful ideas don't have to be the same person as the people with necessary resources. It makes innovations can happen more frequently.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/05/2021 12:55:35
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/05/2021 23:12:39
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/05/2021 23:52:21
Some may argue that even inventions can also cause loss to someone else, namely competitors who use older technologies. But the benefit for the society outweighs the loss. Besides, those competitors who lost their business could use their resources for something else that's more profitable.
Post by: charles1948 on 25/05/2021 00:14:20
Investment in invention and innovation may sound like gambling. But there's one crucial difference. Gambling is a zero sum game. Someone's profit comes from the loss of someone else, and no net benefit to the society as a whole.
But, if gambling is a zero sum-game, why do some people set up betting shops, and casinos, to make customers come in to gamble?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 05:04:58
Humans evolved to love winning games. Consistently losing in competitions is detrimental. Winning games activates reward function of neurotransmitters. Those casinos provides a way to "help" some humans to get those good feelings easily. It's similar to smoking weed, surfing, hiking, jogging, swimming, playing video games, board games, etc. Some people feels more excitement and enthusiastic when the game involve real risk, such as extreme sports and gambling.They don't give direct benefits to the society. Although some of them may provide indirect benefit, by giving emotional boost and replenishing mental health. But gambling are known to cause psychological stress to its participants, especially when they lose, which is expected by laws of probability.Investment in invention and innovation may sound like gambling. But there's one crucial difference. Gambling is a zero sum game. Someone's profit comes from the loss of someone else, and no net benefit to the society as a whole.
But, if gambling is a zero sum-game, why do some people set up betting shops, and casinos, to make customers come in to gamble?
The actual impact of winning and losing in gambling depends on each individual's responses which are affected by many factors, such as genetic, education, ideology, physical and psychological fitness, etc. Some of them can control themselves and the negative impacts of losing in gambling can be well mitigated. But this kind of persons may well get positive impacts of gambling such as emotional excitement of winning, without even doing the gamble. It reduces the attraction of gambling and tips the balance of cost and benefit towards detrimental side in the perspective of societies.
As long as there are enough people with excess wealth who don't mind losing in gambling just to get the excitement, opening casino or betting shop can be a profitable business.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 06:03:58
Innovation is a risky business. It can give extremely high return, but it can also crash in failure. They can be shared between the investors and inventors or innovators, equally or not. When the inventors are very confident with their inventions, they can take all the risk in the hope of maximum benefits by taking a loan with fixed interest rate. On the other hand, When the investors are very confident with their investments, they can buy the invention for a fixed price. The risk can also be shared between them. So do the potential benefits. The portion of the share is determined by the deal between them.New investors can buy portions of shares from initial investors or company founders. It will dillute the share ownerships of the initial investors while accumulating resources to grow the company so it can increase the benefits of the invention or innovation.
In a sense, owning money is similar to owning shares of a company. When new money is created, the value held by existing money owners is dilluted accordingly. So, when a government of a country print more money in local currency, the real quantity of resources don't change. It means that the portion of money own by the government increases, which comes from decreasing the portion of money owned by other parties, including foreign governments and corporations.
US Dollar has special place in international economy on earth.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_dollar#Use_as_international_reserve_currency
https://english.pravda.ru/business/114921-us_dollar/
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 09:09:41
https://www.commondreams.org/views/2013/12/09/three-ways-super-rich-suck-wealth-out-rest-us
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This is not a matter of productive people benefiting from their contributions to society. This is a relatively small number of people extracting massive amounts of money through the financial system for accomplishing almost nothing.
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They Create Imaginary Money That Turns RealIt reminds me of the sh1t eating economists joke.
The world's wealth has doubled in a little over ten years. The financial industry has, in effect, created a whole new share of global wealth and redistributed much of it to itself.
In the U.S., financial sector profits as a percentage of corporate profits have been rising steadily over the past 30 years. The speculative, non-productive, and fee-generating derivatives market has increased to an unfathomable level of over $1 quadrillion -- a thousand trillion dollars, twenty times more than the world economy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 13:16:16
The complexity of financial system can be used/misused to benefit oneself by sacrificing others without net benefit to the whole society.There are some money related actions that are outright crimes, such as heist, robbery, theft, extortion, fraud. The victims can be easily identified, and feel the direct impact.
Some other crimes are less obvious, such as counterfeiting money, money laundering, price gouging, bribery. Some even on the border line of legal actions, such as donating/lobbying to corrupt politicians/law makers, insider trading and market manipulation.
When the victims are not easily identified, it usually means that the loss are distributed among many victims at once, hence each victim don't feel being harmed that much. In the case of money counterfeiting, assuming that the counterfeit money is indistinguishable from the real/original money, the victims are all other owners of the real/original money in the form of reducing its value. Usually the quantity of counterfeit money is much less than the real one, thus the value reduction is insignificant. But when it grows larger, the impact can be devastating to the economy.
https://www.epi.org/publication/pay-corporate-executives-financial-professionals/
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 14:12:11
The OTHER AI Alignment Problem: Mesa-Optimizers and Inner Alignment
Deceptive Misaligned Mesa-Optimisers? It's More Likely Than You Think...
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2021 14:31:49
A conscious being who has no time left can't do anything meaningful. It can no longer make a plan, or choose actions to get the best possible outcomes.
It would be preferable if we can have the perspective of that last conscious being while preserving time, which is one of the most valuable resources. This can be done by building a virtual universe which would be continuously improved in accuracy and precision. It would make us closer to becoming a Laplace demon level conscious entity which can see events further in time and eliminate surprises.
Knowing how the future would be before being there, by simulating it with adequately accurate model is comparable to knowing the mass, size, temperature, and composition of a star without having to travel light years away.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/05/2021 05:56:07
In any system, we can break down this capability into 3 main parts: input, process, and output. Input parts determine how good a system can collect information about physical reality in and around it. Process parts determine how good a system can process information collected by inputs, filter it, store it, and calculate the most optimal actions aligned with its terminal goal. The output parts modify or make changes to physical reality in and around it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/05/2021 07:32:58
In any system, we can break down this capability into 3 main parts: input, process, and output.When talking about consciousness, we tend to overlook input and output parts, while focusing on the process part. But I can argue that a system can have high intelligence while being low in consciousness. Think about someone who is dreaming, or has severed spinal cord, or a brain in a vat, or supercomputer running a simulation.
Consciousness level of a system is not a constant. It can vary from time to time. When someone is drunk, their consciousness level is reduced. So does when they got stroke or Alzheimer. Some drugs may increase their consciousness level. So do their access to smart phone or direct brain interface, even simpler tools like reading glass, telescopes, microscope, screwdriver, hammer, and knife.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/05/2021 10:03:00
In his own words,"...and we should do it now" (Elon Musk)Now is the only time when we can really make a change. Time is considered as a precious resource which should not be spent in vain. The longer we wait, the less time we can use to execute our plans, and the higher the risk of failure.
Why?
"Becoming multi-planetary is one of the greatest filters. Only now, 4.5 billion years after Earth formed, is it possible. How long this window to reach Mars remains open is uncertain. Perhaps a long time, perhaps not. In case it is the latter, we should act now," wrote Musk on his Twitter page.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1396226161718349824?s=19
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2021 05:25:37
These videos describe the alignment between base and mesa objectives, which are basically the same as terminal and instrumental goals, respectively.Our minds are neural network systems trained by our parents and teachers, which in turn were trained by their parents and teachers, and so on to earlier human ancestors. So in a way, we are mesa optimizers having mesa objectives, which must be aligned with the base objective. In other words, we should align our instrumental goals with our terminal goal.
On the other hand, our successors will be our mesa optimisers. We need to make sure that their mesa objective is aligned with our base objective.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2021 15:11:19
On the other hand, our successors will be our mesa optimisers. We need to make sure that their mesa objective is aligned with our base objective.This can be done by setting up moral rules, equipped with reward and punishment system. The reward is simply a way to inform the optimisers that their behavior is aligned with base objective, and they should keep doing it. While the punishment is simply a way to inform the optimisers that their behavior is not aligned with base objective, and they should stop/avoid doing it.
In many cases, simply telling them that their behavior is aligned or not aligned with base objective is not enough to modify their behavior. It may be caused by existing mesa objective which can be shaped by evolutionary process, childhood indoctrination, or their previous experience.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2021 06:10:29
In many cases, simply telling them that their behavior is aligned or not aligned with base objective is not enough to modify their behavior. It may be caused by existing mesa objective which can be shaped by evolutionary process, childhood indoctrination, or their previous experience.Pain and pleasure are some earliest methods to inform organisms as mesa optimisers if their actions are aligned with their base objective, which is to avoid extinction. They are not perfectly accurate, but they are fast, and in most cases adequate. The inaccuracy issue can be compensated by having redundancy through reproduction.
Organisms who have developed expectation of future condition can get advantage from using happiness and sadness/suffering, which are expectation of future pleasure and pain, to realign their behavior with their objective. The advantage is the possibilities to make preventive/anticipative actions so they can avoid real pain and maximize real pleasure.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2021 09:59:52
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David Sinclair, professor of genetics at Harvard Medical School, discusses his new book "Lifespan", which distills his cutting-edge research findings on the biological processes underpinning aging. Sinclair describes lifestyle hacks we can undertake now to combat aging, as well as future scientific breakthroughs that promise to slow down—and even reverse—the aging process.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2021 12:19:21
Organisms who have developed expectation of future condition can get advantage from using happiness and sadness/suffering, which are expectation of future pleasure and pain, to realign their behavior with their objective.This capability requires some form of virtualization or simulation of physical reality inside the body of the organism, typically in the form of neural network. In simple organisms, the simulation has low accuracy and precision. But they don't consume much resources. More accurate and precise simulations are costly, but the benefits may outweigh the costs.
Humans have named some milestones to describe progress of information processing capability in organisms.
instinct: an innate, typically fixed pattern of behavior in animals in response to certain stimuli. It may be compared to sub-routine or procedure in programming languages.
emotion : a natural instinctive state of mind deriving from one's circumstances, mood, or relationships with others. We can compare it to situational system's mode such as normal mode in smart phone for common usage, power saving mode when the battery is low, and gaming mode when high performance is required.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2021 15:33:54
In this context, intelligence can be seen as the ability to align a system's actions with its mesa goals. While wisdom is the ability to align a system's mesa goals with its base goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/05/2021 07:26:55
Consciousness level of a system describes how much control it has to determine its own future.Consciousness level of a system in general doesn't depend on how it is formed, or what's its chemical composition. It can be achieved by adding new parts, replacing old parts with better new one, removing unnecessary parts, or cooperating with other conscious systems.
When I mentioned universal consciousness, it referred to general form of consciousness, unrestricted by any arbitrary constrains. The only constraint is that the system is conscious, which means that it has at least some control over its own future. It was the superset of any form of consciousness. So it must exist, as long as we can say that consciousness in any form do exist.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/05/2021 23:43:04
The idea that I want to convey here is that money was invented from practical necessities. It's a tool to help improving our ability to manage resources, their production and consumption. It helps us passing through difficult times by shifting the burdens to easier times. In turn, it helps us improving our chance to survive. Those who don't participate in the monetary system won't enjoy its advantages, and put them in a bad position in the competition.Any economic system is a meme. It will compete for its existence in the mind of conscious entities.
Competition forced us to improve our system's effectiveness and efficiency. It lead us to invent more complex financial instruments.
Good economic systems are those that help their society to survive in various environmental conditions by distributing resources effectively and efficiently.
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Economic system, any of the ways in which humankind has arranged for its material provisioning. One would think that there would be a great variety of such systems, corresponding to the many cultural arrangements that have characterized human society. Surprisingly, that is not the case. Although a wide range of institutions and social customs have been associated with the economic activities of society, only a very small number of basic modes of provisioning can be discovered beneath this variety. Indeed, history has produced but three such kinds of economic systems: those based on the principle of tradition, those centrally planned and organized according to command, and the rather small number, historically speaking, in which the central organizing form is the market.
The very paucity of fundamental modes of economic organization calls attention to a central aspect of the problem of economic “systems”—namely, that the objective to which all economic arrangements must be addressed has itself remained unchanged throughout human history. Simply stated, this unvarying objective is the coordination of the individual activities associated with provisioning—activities that range from providing subsistence foods in hunting and gathering societies to administrative or financial tasks in modern industrial systems. What may be called “the economic problem” is the orchestration of these activities into a coherent social whole—coherent in the sense of providing a social order with the goods or services it requires to ensure its own continuance and to fulfill its perceived historic mission.
Social coordination can in turn be analyzed as two distinct tasks. The first of these is the production of the goods and services needed by the social order, a task that requires the mobilization of society’s resources, including its most valuable, human effort. Of nearly equal importance is the second task, the appropriate distribution of the product (see distribution theory). This distribution not only must provide for the continuance of a society’s labour supply (even slaves had to be fed) but also must accord with the prevailing values of different social orders, all of which favour some recipients of income over others—men over women, aristocrats over commoners, property owners over nonowners, or political party members over nonmembers. In standard textbook treatments, the economic problem of production and distribution is summarized by three questions that all economic systems must answer: what goods and services are to be produced, how goods and services are to be produced and distributed, and for whom the goods and services are to be produced and distributed.
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https://www.britannica.com/topic/economic-system
All modes of accomplishing these basic tasks of production and distribution rely on social rewards or penalties of one kind or another. Tradition-based societies depend largely on communal expressions of approval or disapproval. Command systems utilize the open or veiled power of physical coercion or punishment, or the bestowal of wealth or prerogatives. The third mode—the market economy—also brings pressures and incentives to bear, but the stimuli of gain and loss are not usually within the control of any one person or group of persons. Instead, the incentives and pressures emerge from the “workings” of the system itself, and, on closer inspection, those workings turn out to be nothing other than the efforts of individuals to gain financial rewards by supplying the things that others are willing to pay for.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/05/2021 07:49:06
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Companies that adopt robots hire more workers
On a macroeconomic level, the logic seems simple: If AI makes workers obsolete, then adopting it will make unemployment rise. At first sight, a study from France confirms that suspicion. The authors found that a 20 percent increase in robots in a given industry leads to a 1.6 percent decline in employment there. Of course, robots are a way more general term than AI, but we can assume AI would lead to similar results.
The reality is different, though, when shifting perspective from the national economy to individual corporations. Somewhat counterintuitively, companies that adopt robots hire more workers. Admittedly, this data might be a bit misleading because companies with stronger growth can afford more robots sooner, which makes them scale even faster.
There are, however, a couple of compelling reasons to believe that robots help companies expand their human workforce. The French study suggests that, if workers and robots share the workload, then the value added per worker goes up.
For example, consider a company that employs five workers to manufacture a product worth $100. On average, every worker contributes $20 to the final product. After experiencing some growth, this company buys some robots and now only needs two workers per product because the robots are doing the rest. As a result, the remaining two workers contribute $50 each to the final product. Since this is a dramatic increase in efficiency, the company might expand its activities and hire additional workers, who can also now contribute $50 each thanks to the improved efficiency — compared to $20 in the pre-robot stage. This mechanism increases a company’s labor demand, so it might decide to hire more workers to expand its palette of products and services.
https://towardsdatascience.com/is-ai-coming-for-your-job-2f593ab72b55
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/05/2021 11:45:43
Any economic system is a meme. It will compete for its existence in the mind of conscious entities.
Good economic systems are those that help their society to survive in various environmental conditions by distributing resources effectively and efficiently.
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An economic system, or economic order,[1] is a system of production, resource allocation and distribution of goods and services within a society or a given geographic area. It includes the combination of the various institutions, agencies, entities, decision-making processes and patterns of consumption that comprise the economic structure of a given community.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_system
An economic system is a type of social system. The mode of production is a related concept.[2] All economic systems must confront and solve the three fundamental economic problems:
What kinds and quantities of goods shall be produced.
How goods shall be produced.
How the output will be distributed
When to produce
The study of economic systems includes how these various agencies and institutions are linked to one another, how information flows between them, and the social relations within the system (including property rights and the structure of management). The analysis of economic systems traditionally focused on the dichotomies and comparisons between market economies and planned economies and on the distinctions between capitalism and socialism.[4] Subsequently, the categorization of economic systems expanded to include other topics and models that do not conform to the traditional dichotomy.
Today the dominant form of economic organization at the world level is based on market-oriented mixed economies.[5] An economic system can be considered a part of the social system and hierarchically equal to the law system, political system, cultural and so on. There is often a strong correlation between certain ideologies, political systems and certain economic systems (for example, consider the meanings of the term "communism"). Many economic systems overlap each other in various areas (for example, the term "mixed economy" can be argued to include elements from various systems). There are also various mutually exclusive hierarchical categorizations.
There are many ways to classify economic systems, but the simplest and most widely known is by ownership of the means of production:
- Capitalism (private ownership of the means of production )
- Mixed economy
- Socialist economy (social ownership of the means of production)
In those economic systems, each participants play the role of mesa optimisers with different mesa objectives. In pure capitalism, the mesa objectives are to maximize their profits. The authorities/regulators must make sure that their mesa objectives are aligned with the base objective of the society. In pure socialism, the mesa objectives are to follow command given by the authorities/regulators. Essentially, in capitalism, the burden of information processing to produce economic decision makings are distributed among economic participants, while in socialism, they are concentrated to the authorities/regulators. Both strategies have their own costs and benefits.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2021 12:04:48
The video explains how the price of goods can be determined by the market in capitalist economic systems.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2021 12:28:32
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It's a term you've probably heard a lot. Late Stage Capitalism. People use it to describe the absurdities and wild inequalities of the world today. But what is it exactly, and are we really living in it? And if so, what comes next?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2021 12:43:43
Is Universal Basic Income The Key To The Future?
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With AI and automation already displacing jobs in the United States, and the problem only expected to get worse, the idea of a Universal Basic Income is being touted as a solution to save us. But is it all it's cracked up to be?
Universal Basic Income Explained – Free Money for Everybody? UBI
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2021 13:47:16
- most modern people can't produce their own resources without the help of someone else. Most of us don't produce our own food. Even farmers need someone to provide the fertilizer.
- despite of that, they want to survive.
- the society as a whole can produce more resources than what's required to sustain all of its people, which means someone must produce more resources than what they need.
- most people have inherently good intentions to contribute to their society. The exceptions must be insignificant.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2021 20:36:00
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/06/2021 07:15:29
Essentially, in capitalism, the burden of information processing to produce economic decision makings are distributed among economic participants, while in socialism, they are concentrated to the authorities/regulators. Both strategies have their own costs and benefits.In several occasions, Yuval Noah Harari said that the main reason why centralized economic systems failed was because of inadequate computing power. It makes their decisions don't align with their intentions.
Another possible reason is that their model doesn't represent reality accurately, which also makes their decisions don't align with their intentions.
Centralized power with imperfect management and accountability is susceptible to manipulation and corruption, which lead them to wrong decisions.
Slow transfer and process of information could also make their decisions out of date.
But improvement of telecommunication, computational power, and artificial intelligence can change the results.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/06/2021 09:56:39
When the uncertainty is high, decentralized systems like capitalism are more advantageous. With more subsystems making different decisions, there are higher chance that at least some of them will get it right. The others could then adopt similar strategy and then try to improve it.
Those who make the wrong decision may suffer, or even get destroyed. But they're not necessarily in vain. They and others can learn from it, to avoid the same mistake. We should learn from others' mistakes, since we won't have enough time to do it all by ourselves.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/06/2021 22:38:09
For earlier design phases, we can use cheaper and less accurate models. For medical treatment, we traditionally use animals. In modern labs we can use organoid or HeLa cells. In many physical objects, we can use their miniature versions.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/06/2021 12:21:02
Adequately accurate and precise virtual representation of objective reality is what we commonly called knowledge. It's a form of data compression.
At the most fundamental level, knowledge consist of two types of data: nodes and edges. They are the data points and the relationship among them, respectively.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2021 17:22:10
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/06/2021 13:25:14
In most cases, we can't just go from home to our work place by simply following a straight line. Even if we use helicopter or flying taxi, we need to make some maneuver, at least when we're on the ground prior to take off or after landing.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/06/2021 15:39:56
Although the long term trend seems to align with that direction, we can't just follow it blindly while ignoring other important and more urgent issues. Besides of information processing, any conscious entities need some other things, such as power sources, energy storages, protective shields, data back up, material processing, and waste disposal and management.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/06/2021 22:41:27
I bring my argumentation from my other thread since it's closely related to my latest post here. The most direct transition or transformation from one point or shape to another is probably not the most effective nor efficient. Building tall buildings usually need scaffolding, which will be removed once the building is finished. Some chemical reactions need precursors and/or catalyst, which are separated from the finish product. A caterpillar turns into chrysalis before it becomes a butterfly.There are conflict of interest between people from different countries. Also from the same country. Or the same organization. Even among siblings. Even twins. Even among cells in the same human individual. But that doesn't mean that they can't have common goals.But now we can decide which microbiome should live inside us, which one should die,So there is an inevitable conflict of interests, and only human vanity decides which should win. No sign of a universal goal!
The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future. It's not restricted to selfish behavior, although self preservation is important up to some limit.
In general, parents want to give better lives to their children. It means that their children would have better chance to survive, but also means that the children are not exactly the same as the parents. Extrapolated to many generations, the accumulated difference between earliest ancestors and latest descendants could be huge, they are unrecognizable anymore to be in the same lineage.
Our ancestors played their roles as the scaffolding to our existence. We also have our role to be the scaffolding to the existence of our descendants or successors. A good moral standard would tell us if we behave like a good or bad scaffolding. It would inevitably prioritize things according to their impacts to the future of consciousness. There would be sacrifices in one form or another.
Moving from a second storey window to the ground can be done quickly by simply jump. But it's usually not the safe way.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2021 06:40:15
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/06/2021 11:24:56
Goods & services are the real economy, any form of money is simply the accounting thereof
(https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1401251430015582209?s=03)
Previously, I've mentioned similar idea here, but using a more general term for goods & services, which is resources.
Producing goods or services needs resources. They aren't just raw materials, which are obvious for the case of goods. Some goods may have cheap raw materials, but involve expensive process due to high energy requirement or safety concerns.
The resources required to produce services by professionals such as barbers, lawyers, surgeon, or technicians, can take forms of time and energy needed to do the jobs, on top of resources needed to train and learn the required knowledge and skills to do the jobs, and also the tools and consummables.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/06/2021 11:04:57
Ray Kurzweil depicted the future in technological singularity by turning most of accessible matters into information processing objects as parts of AGI. In the future, there will be more smart matters and less dumb matters. Internet of things and edge computing are inevitably emerging as parts of the progress.
Although the long term trend seems to align with that direction, we can't just follow it blindly while ignoring other important and more urgent issues. Besides of information processing, any conscious entities need some other things, such as power sources, energy storages, protective shields, data back up, material processing, and waste disposal and management.
Expanding universal consciousness requires resources, including raw materials. Contributors of consciousness in the form of life as we know it has natural limits. Human population can't keep growing beyond those limits.
https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/phosphorus-is-vital-for-life-and-were-running-low
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All life needs phosphorus and agricultural yields are improved when phosphorus is added to growing plants and the diet of livestock. Consequently, it is used globally as a fertilizer — and plays an important role in meeting the world’s food requirements.
In order for us to add it, however, we first need to extract it from a concentrated form — and the supply comes almost exclusively from phosphate mines in Morocco (with far smaller quantities coming from China, the U.S., Jordan and South Africa). Within Morocco, most of the mines are in Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony which was annexed by Morocco in 1975.
The fact that more than 70 percent of the global supply comes from this single location is problematic, especially as scientists are warning that we are approaching “peak phosphorus”, the point at which demand begins to outstrip supply and intensive agriculture cannot continue to provide current yields. In the worst case scenario, mineable reserves could be exhausted within as little as 35 years.
In the first half of the 19th century, Justus von Liebig popularized the law of the minimum for agriculture, which states that growth is limited by the least available resource. It was soon discovered that this was often some form of phosphorus.
As a consequence, bones — comprised mostly of calcium and phosphate — from old battlefields were dug up to use in farming. Guano, large accumulations of bird droppings, also contains high concentrations of phosphorus and was used to fertilize crops. But supplies of this were soon depleted. As demand increased, supplies had to be mined instead.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2021 04:11:03
Energy is one form of resources required to expand universal consciousness. It's important to choose its source wisely.
Chosing the best options should be done holistically, taking into account all conceivable costs and benefits into as far as possible future allowed by our information processing capability, using our most accurate model of objective reality.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/06/2021 06:40:32
The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.I realise that I have expressed the idea of universal terminal goal in some different ways. I feel that this one is the least controversial and easiest to follow.
Previously I said that the universal terminal goal is to protect the last conscious being. Although this one is a logical consequence of my preferred expression above, it seems to add a preliminary task, which is identifying who the last conscious being is. It also seems to imply that the other conscious beings are to be ignored.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/06/2021 23:22:38
Previously I said that the universal terminal goal is to protect the last conscious being. Although this one is a logical consequence of my preferred expression above, it seems to add a preliminary task, which is identifying who the last conscious being is. It also seems to imply that the other conscious beings are to be ignored.It also seems to hint as if the last conscious being to be protected consists of a single entity, presumably biological. In reality, it's unlikely to be the case. Protecting a conscious being effectively requires protecting its redundancy back ups, as well as its supporting entities and facilities. Preserving some diversity of the back ups is necessary to avoid common mode failures.
For example, every human individual is a redundancy back up for the others. They are also in interdependent relationships with each other. Their survival also depends on their environmental conditions.
With these in mind, we can see that the last conscious being to be protected at all costs is not restricted to be a biological individual specimen. Instead, it's the whole system of consciousness with its members interdependent from each others.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/06/2021 10:30:07
So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.I realise that I have expressed the idea of universal terminal goal in some different ways. I feel that this one is the least controversial and easiest to follow.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the persepective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
I've summarized the core concepts of the thread into some videos which I collected in a playlist.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZ2PyRUoub7jJFt6uQ8Osxdg8zLtLN_1m
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/06/2021 10:44:11
Here is another way to describe consciousness in the context of universal terminal goal. Consciousness level of a system describes how much control it has to determine its own future.
Here is a documentary video discussing about consciousness.
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What is consciousness? Consciousness is what we know best and explain least. It is the inner subjective experience of what it feels like to see red or smell garlic or hear Beethoven. Consciousness is baffling. Featuring interviews with Simon Blackburn, Susan Greenfield, Christof Koch, Bruce Hood, and Roy Baumeister.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/06/2021 13:57:52
So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.It seems that the universal terminal goal puts more emphasis on time dimension over the others such as space and mass. Which means that given the same amount of conscious beings, it's more preferred to have consciousness go further into the future, rather than go further into distant places or get more numerous but then go extinct more early.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2021 06:29:30
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/06/2021 12:23:25
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Imagine you go to a restaurant. Looking at the menu, you discover that they serve your two favourite meals – say asparagus and spinach tart. What will you do? You may hesitate for a while, but then you will make your choice. You have to make a choice, don’t you? Even if you’re hungry or greedy enough to order both, you have to decide which to eat first.
Now, how do you decide? Given that you like both equally, why do you choose, say, spinach tart, and not asparagus? There are two possible general answers. You can say either that:
a) There is no reason (no cause) for your choice. You just act, and you could equally well choose the other meal. Or:
b) There is a reason, but it’s unknown to you.
The second answer seems more plausible, because it accords with a principle that’s fundamental to the way we think. This principle is commonly called Leibniz’s Law, or the Principle of Sufficient Reason. It can be stated in various ways:
• Nihil sine ratione: Nothing is without a reason.
• Nothing happens without a sufficient reason/cause.
• For each event A there is another event B (or a combination of events) that precedes it and fully explains why A had to happen.
• Ex nihilo nihil fit: Nothing comes out of nothing.
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Of course there are situations where we have difficulties in making up our minds (we sometimes have those difficulties, but not donkeys). This is often the case when much depends on our decision. But in the end we will decide one way or the other, even if only because the lapse of time changes the situation. Buridan’s ass starves because he’s imagined as timeless, as somehow removed from the passage of time. He’s frozen in a situation where there’s only him and the two piles of hay. Yet since donkeys live in time, no donkey will ever starve because he lacks free willThe paradox seems to quickly dismiss that sitting still wasting time is a third option, which makes the situation a false dichotomy. In this case, wasting time indefinitely is the worst possible option, which should be avoided. When the other two options are equally good, then choosing randomly would be great.
Post by: Colin2B on 24/06/2021 13:56:03
The paradox seems to quickly dismiss that sitting still wasting time is a third option, which makes the situation a false dichotomy. In this case, wasting time indefinitely is the worst possible option, which should be avoided. When the other two options are equally good, then choosing randomly would be great.There is a third option. There is a reason for your choice and it’s known to you.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/06/2021 22:14:29
There is a third option. There is a reason for your choice and it’s known to you.Are you still talking about Buridan's ass? In this case, the options are :
go to left
go to right
go to neither, or stay where it is
Post by: Colin2B on 25/06/2021 14:34:08
No, it was the asparagus vs spinach tarts that set me drooling. The 3rd option is that there is a reason for your choice and it is known to you.There is a third option. There is a reason for your choice and it’s known to you.Are you still talking about Buridan's ass? In this case, the options are :
go to left
go to right
go to neither, or stay where it is
Faced with a coin toss decision I would always look for extra data first.
Maybe I had asparagus last time, so to even it up in the favourites league I need to have spinach.
Maybe it’s asparagus soup for starters, so I might or might not want asparagus tart.
Etc
By the way, like most humans I’m really good at post rationalising my decisions, so don’t rely on any reason I give ;D
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/06/2021 21:26:35
No, it was the asparagus vs spinach tarts that set me drooling. The 3rd option is that there is a reason for your choice and it is known to you.The article said that you like both equally. Presumably at the time you have to make the choice. Otherwise it wouldn't be a problem in the first place.
Faced with a coin toss decision I would always look for extra data first.
Maybe I had asparagus last time, so to even it up in the favourites league I need to have spinach.
Maybe it’s asparagus soup for starters, so I might or might not want asparagus tart.
Etc
By the way, like most humans I’m really good at post rationalising my decisions, so don’t rely on any reason I give
Post by: Colin2B on 25/06/2021 23:18:08
The article said that you like both equally. Presumably at the time you have to make the choice. Otherwise it wouldn't be a problem in the first place.I agree I like both equally at the time of choice, but I don’t see that as a reason not to make a rational choice.
Selecting on the basis of what I ate last time is rational and is known to me. I must have eaten both before or I wouldn’t know I like both equally; if I like them equally then I’m likely to have eaten them in equal quantities - otherwise I would have a favourite.
So, I don’t see there is a problem.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/06/2021 07:12:00
I agree I like both equally at the time of choice, but I don’t see that as a reason not to make a rational choice.What you ate last time seems to reduce your preference for it, which makes them unequal at the time you make the choice.
Selecting on the basis of what I ate last time is rational and is known to me. I must have eaten both before or I wouldn’t know I like both equally; if I like them equally then I’m likely to have eaten them in equal quantities - otherwise I would have a favourite.
So, I don’t see there is a problem.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/06/2021 13:36:28
Here is an example. Some people think that their terminal goal is to live forever in heaven.If we ask them why they want to live in heaven, some of them may say that they will get continuous pleasure without feeling pain or hunger. In this case, the heaven would only function as an instrumental goal.
Post by: Colin2B on 26/06/2021 18:53:47
What you ate last time seems to reduce your preference for it, which makes them unequal at the time you make the choice.This is illogical.
The only way I can know if I like 2 things equally is to try them, and I will always try one of them last. If the last time I try one of them makes them unequal then the test proposed is never going to happen; I will never like them equally.
To me this ‘thought’ experiment has not been thought through.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/06/2021 23:03:50
Let's say that you have tried both of them several times already, and you like the second thing slightly better than the first one. But the last time you have eaten the second thing, which makes it no longer more favorable than the first one.What you ate last time seems to reduce your preference for it, which makes them unequal at the time you make the choice.This is illogical.
The only way I can know if I like 2 things equally is to try them, and I will always try one of them last. If the last time I try one of them makes them unequal then the test proposed is never going to happen; I will never like them equally.
To me this ‘thought’ experiment has not been thought through.
Post by: Colin2B on 27/06/2021 07:54:43
Let's say that you have tried both of them several times already, and you like the second thing slightly better than the first one.in which case I don’t like them equally, which negates the example given. The example assumed I like both equally.
But the last time you have eaten the second thing, which makes it no longer more favorable than the first one.this doesn’t make sense.
If I start off liking the second thing slightly better, how does eating it as the last occasion make it no longer more liked; surely it would reinforce the liking!
Even if we assume that on the last occasion I ate the first item, I don’t see how that affects my overall judgement of equal or unequal liking. I’m still making a comparison based on my memory of both and based on that there are many thing I say I like equally, or dislike equally.
I have to come back to this:
“If I like 2 things equally, but the last one I eat changes that to a preference, then I can never have an equal preference because I must have tried both in some order.”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/06/2021 03:55:44
The example assumed I like both equally.The problem only arise when you like them equally at the time you are making the choice. How you like them at any other time is irrelevant.
Post by: Colin2B on 28/06/2021 08:38:58
The problem only arise when you like them equally at the time you are making the choice. How you like them at any other time is irrelevant.I understand both those statements. The problem I have is twofold:
a) they only give 2 options, but I believe there is a third - that even though I like both equally at the time there are ways I can make a choice and know the reason I made it.
b) some of the explanations you gave mean that it would be impossible for me to ever like them equally at the time of choice.
However, I think we have reached the limit of our discussion, thanks for your time and explanations. Utopia is not for me :)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/06/2021 13:45:04
The problem I have is twofold:In philosophy and rhetoric, the principle of charity or charitable interpretation requires interpreting a speaker's statements in the most rational way possible and, in the case of any argument, considering its best, strongest possible interpretation.
a) they only give 2 options, but I believe there is a third - that even though I like both equally at the time there are ways I can make a choice and know the reason I made it.
b) some of the explanations you gave mean that it would be impossible for me to ever like them equally at the time of choice.
The only way to interpret the statements in the thought experiment to make their conclusion rational is that the word "like" signifies preference, whether or not it occurs rationally. It makes whatever reason you have to make the choice rationally would make those options unequal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/06/2021 13:24:18
I bring this post here from my other thread to explore further about the terminal goal.Some people may not be so interested in having eternal pleasure. So, some religions invented a more powerful "insentive", which is to avoid eternal pain in hell.Here is an example. Some people think that their terminal goal is to live forever in heaven.If we ask them why they want to live in heaven, some of them may say that they will get continuous pleasure without feeling pain or hunger. In this case, the heaven would only function as an instrumental goal.
In nature, avoiding pain has higher urgency than seeking pleasure.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/07/2021 07:35:31
Pain and pleasure give living organisms quick feedback to predict if their current situations are good or bad, so they can react accordingly. They are not always accurate, but still better than nothing. It's like quick count in elections.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/07/2021 12:56:52
Short term simulation can be done by simple algorithm or shallow neural networks. Emotional based decisions fall into this category.
Longer term simulation needs more complex algorithms, or deeper neural networks. To make right decisions, the simulation needs to represent objective reality accurately and precisely.
Longest term simulation is needed to make the right decisions to achieve universal terminal goal. That's why we need to develop a virtual universe, so we would get less and less surprises in our lifetime. Future conscious entities would be more similar to Laplace's demon who knows what will happen in the far future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/07/2021 14:39:46
Any decision making process can be considered as trial and error. We put available options as inputs for some simulation algorithm and compare the results. Subsequently, we choose the option which produces the most preferred result.The difference between well thought decisions and uninformed decisions is that in former case, the trial and error are done in a virtual environment, like the mind of the decision maker. As long as the simulation is adequately accurate and precise, it usually can save resources. Efficiency is the universal instrumental goal.
In the later case, they are done in real world environment. Although they are not the most efficient way, they are inevitable when not enough information is available. The result in objective reality is what counts. That's why SpaceX had to blow up some earliest prototypes of Starship. They need to realign their computer models with the ground truth, which is the objective reality.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/07/2021 01:45:24
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/07/2021 11:13:22
IMO, that's the inevitable conclusion, assuming that exponential growth trend that we've observed so far keeps going on, and no unforeseen catastrophic events occurs that can reset our progress so far.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/07/2021 07:30:16
This is Nihilism, the belief in nothing.
This idea is closely related to morality, which I discuss separately.
However, we cannot simply dismiss ideas that are non-rational as a whole. The great David Hume famously realised this in his Enquiry Concerning the Principles of Morals. This quotation is worth showing in full (if only to have an excuse to relish in the man’s writing).QuoteIt appears evident that the ultimate ends of human actions can never, in any case, be accounted for by reason, but recommend themselves entirely to the sentiments and affections of mankind, without any dependence on the intellectual faculties. Ask a man why he uses exercise; he will answer, because he desires to keep his health. If you then enquire, why he desires health, he will readily reply, because sickness is painful. If you push your enquiries farther, and desire a reason why he hates pain, it is impossible he can ever give any. This is an ultimate end, and is never referred to any other object.It's unfortunate that Hume stopped at pleasure as the final answer to why question. He could have continued that pain and pleasure helped our ancestors to survive and thrive, by telling them in advance if their latest actions would likely get them killed, or continue to survive and thrive. He could still chase the why question one more time. The answer would be, only surviving conscious beings can think, and have some control over their own future. In the end, only conscious entities can ask all of those why questions in the first place.
Perhaps to your second question, why he desires health, he may also reply, that it is necessary for the exercise of his calling. If you ask, why he is anxious on that head, he will answer, because he desires to get money. If you demand Why? It is the instrument of pleasure, says he. And beyond this it is an absurdity to ask for a reason. It is impossible there can be a progress in infinitum; and that one thing can always be a reason why another is desired. Something must be desirable on its own account, and because of its immediate accord or agreement with human sentiment and affection. (from An Enquiry into the Principles of Morals, Appendix 1, V.)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/07/2021 04:35:01
The first are those who actively seek to achieve it.
The second are those who actively seek to prevent it.
The third are those who are neither.
Statistically, any high level conscious entity came from the first type. It's extremely unlikely a random process alone can produce an entity with high level of consciousness, e.g. comparable to average human.
Natural selection will likely leave more type 1 conscious entities than the other types. But some random events may turn some of them into type 2 or type 3 conscious entities. These add the burdens for type 1 conscious entities to survive, at least by reducing available resources, or worse, by direct attack to them. Even without those additional burdens, type 1 conscious entities still have to go against the force of entropy in a universe that are mostly destructive to consciousness. If those total burdens go beyond some tolerable level, they may go extinct.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/07/2021 08:03:33
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This video defends an instrumentalist interpretation of the theory of natural selection, drawing on the problem of biological individuality and Robert Brandon's account of the concept of fitness.
0:00 - Introduction
1:20 - The problem of biological individuality
21:11 - Selection-first approaches
33:20 - Brandon on fitness
44:41 - Resolving the individuality problem
57:37 - Further applications
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/07/2021 10:36:05
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Using consilience, which is a bottom up perspective, Tom Beakbane explains consciousness and how it evolved. This explanation is the result of developments in many disciplines including genetics, cell biology, paleontology, comparative anatomy, neurophysiology and computing. The mechanisms are straightforward and matter-of-fact without any need for any pie-in-the-sky theories.
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Frontline researchers have been making remarkable discoveries revealing a new picture of how human neuronal systems work. It turns out that the human brain functions almost identically to the brains of other animals, working on a dipole and in-the-moment. This new picture has yet to displace well-entrenched views that human behavior is the result of conscious thought processes.
I explain the neurophysiology in my recently published book How to Understand Everything. Consilience: A New Way to See the World.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/07/2021 04:34:10
Bret Weinstein and Zuby discuss whether or not income inequality and wealth inequality are a problem in the modern Western world, and if so, to what extent.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/07/2021 06:58:25
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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
This week, Newsmax host Rob Schmitt, took one of the, I guess you would say, most bizarre stances in terms of convincing people to not get vaccinated. We've seen a lot of it, obviously from conservative media and Republican politicians over the last few weeks. But what Mr. Schmitt did was a little bit different and I'm not going to put any words in his mouth. I'm going to let him basically dig it out himself. Here is what he said on Newsmax this week.
I've, one thing I've always thought, and maybe you can guide me on this because obviously I'm not a doctor, but when I've always thought about vaccines and I always think about just nature and the way everything works. And I feel like a vaccination in a weird way is just generally kind of going against nature. Like, I mean, if there is some disease out there, maybe there's just an ebb and flow to life where something's supposed to wipe out a certain amount of people and that's just kind of the way evolution goes, vaccines kind of stand in the way of that.
Yeah. I mean, viruses, diseases, illnesses. They, they, they do wipe out large, large portions of the population there, Rob, you're, you're not wrong about that. The question is, do we just sit back, throw our hands up and say, well, there's a new virus out there, I guess a lot of you are going to have to die, or do we use our brains, come up with a way around this, a vaccine and say, hey, look, we beat the thing. But I guess, you know, based on his statement there, Mr. Schmitt, thinks what we should maybe just sit back and say, yeah, if we get it, we get it. If we're dead, we're dead. That's evolution baby. You just got to accept it. No, that's not what we do, man. That I got, I got to hand it to him. I have to hand it to him. That is probably the most creative way we have seen any personality on the right, you know, try to say that, hey, maybe we don't need the vaccine.
Maybe when it's your time, it's your time. No, this is idiotic. And he did point out in this side, but he said, you know, I'm not anti-vax, I'm not pro-vax, you know, I'm just, I'm just a guy. He's not a doctor. He admitted that. So, you know, after saying all those things, that should have been the end of the conversation, he should have said, I'm not anti-vax, I'm not pro-vax and I'm not a doctor. Moving on. I'm not going to give you my idiotic opinions on what I think about the vaccine, because you have no room to talk. Yes, in the past, viruses wiped out huge swaths of the population, diseases, bacteria, all kinds of things. Until of course, we came out with vaccines, which are widely regarded, including by the CDC as one of the greatest medical advancements of the 20th century. But y'all just don't want that to happen. You're just now on the side of the virus saying, hey, this is nature. Let nature do its thing. Since when do you all even care about nature?
You know, what's natural and what's not. You don't. This was just trying to be a little clever, creative, whatever you want to call it, convincing your audience, the people that you rely on to keep your show alive, to keep your career going, trying to convince them that they don't need to worry about what's happening. And if you're one of the people that dies from this, oh well, must've just been your time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/07/2021 12:24:54
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Right now, billions of neurons in your brain are working together to generate a conscious experience -- and not just any conscious experience, your experience of the world around you and of yourself within it. How does this happen? According to neuroscientist Anil Seth, we're all hallucinating all the time; when we agree about our hallucinations, we call it "reality." Join Seth for a delightfully disorienting talk that may leave you questioning the very nature of your existence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/07/2021 12:33:11
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Patient P.S. suffered a stroke that damaged the right side of her brain, leaving her unaware of everything on her left side. If someone threw a ball at her left side, she might duck. But she wouldn’t have awareness of the ball or know why she ducked. Where does consciousness come from? Michael Graziano explores the question that has vexed scientists and philosophers for centuries.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/07/2021 07:05:18
Your brain hallucinates your conscious reality
Machines can do it too.
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DeepDream is a computer vision program created by Google engineer Alexander Mordvintsev that uses a convolutional neural network to find and enhance patterns in images via algorithmic pareidolia, thus creating a dream-like hallucinogenic appearance in the deliberately over-processed images.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepDream
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/07/2021 11:02:33
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We are entering a new era as a species. For the first time, we are not only able to read our genetic code but also edit it. This will revolutionise our ability to treat disease and it will improve the lives of millions if not billions of people. But it means that, if we want to, we can now edit human embryos to “improve” the characteristics of our children. We will be able to create designer babies and these changes will be passed on to their descendants, which will change the human species forever.
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If it is taken up by large numbers of people, it is likely people will feel obliged to have their offspring genetically augmented to give them a good chance in life. Unscrupulous governments are also likely to use this technology to generate elite athletes if doping programmes of the past are anything to go by, and it isn’t too difficult to see the potential advantages of genetically engineered soldiers.
As long as we acknowledge that our current condition is not perfect, there will always be some changes to improve it. Should we rely on random mutations to make improvement?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/07/2021 10:59:21
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Transcript:This shows the importance of goal alignment.
Hollywood movies make people worry about the wrong things in terms of super intelligence. What we should really worry about is not malice but competence, where we have machines that are smarter than us whose goals just aren’t aligned with ours. For example, I don’t hate ants, I don’t go out of my way to stomp an ant if I see one on the sidewalk, but if I’m in charge of this hydroelectric dam construction and just as I’m going to flood this valley with water I see an ant hill there, tough luck for the ants. Their goals weren’t aligned with mine and because I’m smarter it’s going to be my goals, not the ant’s goals, that get fulfilled. We never want to put humanity in the role of those ants.
On the other hand it doesn’t have to be bad if you solve the goal alignment problem. Little babies tend to be in a household surrounded by human level intelligence as they’re smarter than the babies, namely their parents. And that works out fine because the goals of the parents are wonderfully aligned with the goals of the child’s so it’s all good. And this is one vision that a lot of AI researchers have, the friendly AI vision that we will succeed in not just making machines that are smarter than us, but also machines that then learn, adopt and retain our goals as they get ever smarter.
It might sound easy to get machines to learn, adopt and retain our goals, but these are all very tough problems. First of all, if you take a self-driving taxi and tell it in the future to take you to the airport as fast as possible and then you get there covered in vomit and chased by helicopters and you say, “No, no, no! That’s not what I wanted!” and it replies, “That is exactly what you asked for,” then you’ve appreciated how hard it is to get a machine to understand your goals, your actual goals.
A human cabdriver would have realized that you also had other goals that were unstated because she was also a human and has all this shared reference frame, but a machine doesn’t have that unless we explicitly teach it that. And then once the machine understands our goals there’s a separate problem of getting them to adopt the goals. Anyone who has had kids knows how big the difference is between making the kids understand what you want and actually adopt your goals to do what you want.
And finally, even if you can get your kids to adopt your goals that doesn’t mean they’re going to retain them for life. My kids are a lot less excited about Lego now than they were when they were little, and we don’t want machines as they get ever-smarter to gradually change their goals away from being excited about protecting us and thinking of this thing about taking care of humanity as this little childhood thing (like Legos) that they get bored with eventually.
If we can solve all three of these challenges, getting machines to understand our goals, adopt them and retain them then we can create an awesome future. Because everything I love about civilization is a product of intelligence. Then if we can use machines to amplify our intelligence then we have this potential to solve all the problems that are stumping us today and create a better future than we even dare to dream of.
If machines ever surpass us and can outsmart us at all tasks that’s going to be a really big deal because intelligence is power. The reason that we humans have more power on this planet than tigers is not because we have larger muscles or sharper claws, it’s because we’re smarter than the tigers. And in the exact same way if machines are smarter than us it becomes perfectly plausible for them to control us and become the rulers of this planet and beyond. When I. J. Good made this famous analysis of how you could get an intelligence explosion, or intelligence just kept creating greater and greater intelligence leaving us far behind, he also mentioned that this super intelligence would be the last invention that man need ever make. And what he meant by that, of course, was that so far the most intelligent being on this planet that’s been doing all the inventing—it’s been us. But once we make machines that are better than us at inventing, all future technology that we ever need can be created by those machines if we can make sure that they do things for us that we want and help us create an awesome future where humanity can flourish like never before.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/07/2021 08:56:03
There will be some people or other conscious lifeforms who act as if there is no such thing as a universal terminal goal. Hence they effectively replace it with some arbitrarily chosen non-universal terminal goals.Some of those non-universal terminal goals may bring consequences which effectively obstruct or even prevent the achievement of the universal terminal goal.
Other conscious agents who already acknowledge the universal terminal goal should prepare some counter measures for that case. Establishing a universal moral standard is one of them.
This article describes the differences between terminal and instrumental goals/values,
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/terminal-value
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A terminal value (also known as an intrinsic value) is an ultimate goal, an end-in-itself. The non-standard term "supergoal" is used for this concept in Eliezer Yudkowsky's earlier writings.But it seems to struggle in finding the terminal values in humans as well as non-humans.
In an artificial general intelligence with a utility or reward function, the terminal value is the maximization of that function. The concept is not usefully applicable to all Als, and it is not known how applicable it is to organic entities.
Terminal vs. instrumental values
Terminal values stand in contrast to instrumental values (also known as extrinsic values), which are means-to-an-end, mere tools in achieving terminal values. For example, if a given university student studies merely as a professional qualification, his terminal value is getting a job, while getting good grades is an instrument to that end. If a (simple) chess program tries to maximize piece value three turns into the future, that is an instrumental value to its implicit terminal value of winning the game.
Some values may be called "terminal" merely in relation to an instrumental goal, yet themselves serve instrumentally towards a higher goal. However, in considering future artificial general intelligence, the phrase "terminal value" is generally used only for the top level of the goal hierarchy of the AGI itself: the true ultimate goals of the system; but excluding goals inside the AGI in service of other goals, and excluding the purpose of the AGI's makers, the goal for which they built the system.
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Human terminal values
It is not known whether humans have terminal values that are clearly distinct from another set of instrumental values. Humans appear to adopt different values at different points in life. Nonetheless, if the theory of terminal values applies to humans', then their system of terminal values is quite complex. The values were forged by evolution in the ancestral environment to maximize inclusive genetic fitness. These values include survival, health, friendship, social status, love, joy, aesthetic pleasure, curiosity, and much more. Evolution's implicit goal is inclusive genetic fitness, but humans do not have inclusive genetic fitness as a goal. Rather, these values, which were instrumental to inclusive genetic fitness, have become humans' terminal values (an example of subgoal stomp).
Humans cannot fully introspect their terminal values. Humans' terminal values are often mutually contradictory, inconsistent, and changeable.
Non-human terminal values
Future artificial general intelligences may have the maximization of a utility function or of a reward function (reinforcement learning) as their terminal value. The function will likely be set by the AGI's designers.
Since people make tools instrumentally, to serve specific human values, the assigned value system of the artificial general intelligence may be much simpler than humans'. This will pose a danger, as an AI must seek to protect all human values if a positive human future is to be achieved. The paperclip maximizer is a thought experiment about an artificial general intelligence with consequences disastrous to humanity, with the the apparently innocuous terminal value of maximizing the number of paperclips in its collection,
An intelligence can work towards any terminal value, not just human-like ones. AIXI is a mathematical formalism for modeling intelligence. It illustrates that the arbitrariness of terminal values may be optimized by an intelligence: AIXI is provably more intelligent than any other agent for any computable reward function.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/07/2021 09:14:02
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In more standard terminology, a "subgoal stomp" is a "goal displacement", in which an instrumental value becomes a terminal value.https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/subgoal-stomp
In Friendly AI research, a subgoal stomp is a failure mode to be avoided.
Types of Subgoal Stomp
A subgoal stomp in an artificial general intelligence may occur in one of two ways:
1. Supergoal replacement
One failure mode occurs when subgoals replace supergoals in an agent because of a bug.
The designer of an artificial general intelligence may give it correct supergoals, but the AGI's goals then shift, so that what was earlier a subgoal becomes a supergoal.
Most changes in an agent's terminal values reduces the chance that the values as they are will be fulfilled. This, from the perspective of intelligence as optimization, is a flaw. A sufficiently intelligent AGI will not allow its goals to change
In humans, this can happen when the long-term dedication towards a subgoal makes one forget the original goal. For example, a person may seek to get rich so as to lead a better life, but after long years of hard effort become a workaholic who cares only about money as an end in itself and takes little pleasure in the things that money can buy.
2. Subgoal specified as supergoal
A designer of goal systems may mistakenly assign a goal that is not what the designer really wants.
The designer of an artificial general intelligence may give it a supergoal (terminal value) which appears to support the designer's own supergoals, but in fact supports one of the designer's subgoals, at the cost of some of the designer's other values. For example, if the designer of an artificial general intelligence thinks that smiles represent the most worthwhile goal and specifies "maximize the number of smiles" as a goal for the AGI, it may tile the solar system with tiny smiley faces--not out of a desire to outwit the designer, but because it is precisely working towards the given goal, as specified.
To take an example from human organizations: If a software development manager gives a bonus to workers for finding and fixing bugs, she may find that quality and development engineers collaborate to generate as many easy-to-find-and-fix bugs as possible. In this case, they are correctly and flawlessly executing on the goals which the manager gave them, but her actual terminal value, software quality, is not being maximized.
Humans as adaptation executors
Humans, forged by evolution, provide another example of subgoal stomp. Their terminal values, such as survival, health, social status, curiosity, etc., originally served instrumentally for the (implicit) goal of evolution, namely inclusive genetic fitness. Humans do not have inclusive genetic fitness as a goal: We are adaptation executors rather than fitness maximizers (Tooby and Cosmides, 1992).
If we consider evolution as an optimization process (though not, of course, as an agent), this represents a subgoal stomp.
And the mistake of taking feeling or emotional as the basis of terminal goal
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Wireheading is the artificial stimulation of the brain to experience pleasure, usually through the direct stimulation of an individual's brain's reward or pleasure center with electrical current. It can also be used in a more expanded sense, to refer to any kind of method that produces a form of counterfeit utility by directly maximizing a good feeling, but that fails to realize what we value.https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/wireheading
Related pages: Complexity of Value, Goodhart's Law, Inner Alignment
In both thought experiments and laboratory experiments direct stimulation of the brain’s reward center makes the individual feel happy. In theory, wireheading with a powerful enough current would be the most pleasurable experience imaginable. There is some evidence that reward is distinct from pleasure, and that most currently hypothesized forms of wireheading just motivate a person to continue the wirehead experience, not to feel happy. However, there seems to be no reason to believe that a different form of wireheading which does create subjective pleasure could not be found. The possibility of wireheading raises difficult ethical questions for those who believe that morality is based on human happiness. A civilization of wireheads "blissing out" all day while being fed and maintained by robots would be a state of maximum happiness, but such a civilization would have no art, love, scientific discovery, or any of the other things humans find valuable.
If we take wireheading as a more general form of producing counterfeit utility, there are many examples of ways of directly stimulating of the reward and pleasure centers of the brain, without actually engaging in valuable experiences. Cocaine, heroin, cigarettes and gambling are all examples of current methods of directly achieving pleasure or reward, but can be seen by many as lacking much of what we value and are potentially extremely detrimental. Steve Omohundro argues1 that: “An important class of vulnerabilities arises when the subsystems for measuring utility become corrupted. Human pleasure may be thought of as the experiential correlate of an assessment of high utility. But pleasure is mediated by neurochemicals and these are subject to manipulation.”
Wireheading is also an illustration of the complexities of creating a Friendly AI. Any AGI naively programmed to increase human happiness could devote its energies to wireheading people, possibly without their consent, in preference to any other goals. Equivalent problems arise for any simple attempt to create AGIs who care directly about human feelings ("love", "compassion", "excitement", etc). An AGI could wirehead people to feel in love all the time, but this wouldn’t correctly realize what we value when we say love is a virtue. For Omohundro, because exploiting those vulnerabilities in our subsystems for measuring utility is much easier than truly realizing our values, a wrongly designed AGI would most certainly prefer to wirehead humanity instead of pursuing human values. In addition, an AGI itself could be vulnerable to wirehead and would need to implement “police forces” or “immune systems” to ensure its measuring system doesn’t become corrupted by trying to produce counterfeit utility.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/07/2021 12:03:47
https://www.lesswrong.com/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ
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AGI safety from first principleshttps://www.lesswrong.com/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ/p/8xRSjC76HasLnMGSf
The key concern motivating technical AGI safety research is that we might build autonomous artificially intelligent agents which are much more intelligent than humans, and which pursue goals that conflict with our own. Human intelligence allows us to coordinate complex societies and deploy advanced technology, and thereby control the world to a greater extent than any other species. But AIs will eventually become more capable than us at the types of tasks by which we maintain and exert that control. If they don’t want to obey us, then humanity might become only Earth's second most powerful "species", and lose the ability to create a valuable and worthwhile future.
I’ll call this the “second species” argument; I think it’s a plausible argument which we should take very seriously.[1] However, the version stated above relies on several vague concepts and intuitions. In this report I’ll give the most detailed presentation of the second species argument that I can, highlighting the aspects that I’m still confused about. In particular, I’ll defend a version of the second species argument which claims that, without a concerted effort to prevent it, there’s a significant chance that:
- We’ll build AIs which are much more intelligent than humans (i.e. superintelligent).
- Those AIs will be autonomous agents which pursue large-scale goals.
- Those goals will be misaligned with ours; that is, they will aim towards outcomes that aren’t desirable by our standards, and trade off against our goals.
- The development of such AIs would lead to them gaining control of humanity’s future.
While I use many examples from modern deep learning, this report is also intended to apply to AIs developed using very different models, training algorithms, optimisers, or training regimes than the ones we use today. However, many of my arguments would no longer be relevant if the field of AI moves away from focusing on machine learning. I also frequently compare AI development to the evolution of human intelligence; while the two aren’t fully analogous, humans are the best example we currently have to ground our thinking about generally intelligent AIs.
And here is the conclusion.
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Let’s recap the second species argument as originally laid out, along with the additional conclusions and clarifications from the rest of the report.https://www.lesswrong.com/s/mzgtmmTKKn5MuCzFJ/p/Ni8ocGupB2kGG2fA7Personally, I am most confident in 1, then 4, then 3, then 2 (in each case conditional on all the previous claims) - although I think there’s room for reasonable disagreement on all of them. In particular, the arguments I’ve made about AGI goals might have been too reliant on anthropomorphism. Even if this is a fair criticism, though, it’s also very unclear how to reason about the behaviour of generally intelligent systems without being anthropomorphic. The main reason we expect the development of AGI to be a major event is because the history of humanity tells us how important intelligence is. But it wasn’t just our intelligence that led to human success - it was also our relentless drive to survive and thrive. Without that, we wouldn’t have gotten anywhere. So when trying to predict the impacts of AGIs, we can’t avoid thinking about what will lead them to choose some types of intelligent behaviour over others - in other words, thinking about their motivations.
- We’ll build AIs which are much more intelligent than humans; that is, much better than humans at using generalisable cognitive skills to understand the world.
- Those AGIs will be autonomous agents which pursue long-term, large-scale goals, because goal-directedness is reinforced in many training environments, and because those goals will sometimes generalise to be larger in scope.
- Those goals will by default be misaligned with what we want, because our desires are complex and nuanced, and our existing tools for shaping the goals of AIs are inadequate.
- The development of autonomous misaligned AGIs would lead to them gaining control of humanity’s future, via their superhuman intelligence, technology and coordination - depending on the speed of AI development, the transparency of AI systems, how constrained they are during deployment, and how well humans can cooperate politically and economically.
Note, however, that the second species argument, and the scenarios I’ve outlined above, aren’t meant to be comprehensive descriptions of all sources of existential risk from AI. Even if the second species argument doesn’t turn out to be correct, AI will likely still be a transformative technology, and we should try to minimise other potential harms. In addition to the standard misuse concerns (e.g. about AI being used to develop weapons), we might also worry about increases in AI capabilities leading to undesirable structural changes. For example, they might shift the offense-defence balance in cybersecurity, or lead to more centralisation of human economic power. I consider Christiano’s “going out with a whimper” scenario to also fall into this category. Yet there’s been little in-depth investigation of how structural changes might lead to long-term harms, so I am inclined to not place much credence in such arguments until they have been explored much more thoroughly.
By contrast, I think the AI takeover scenarios that this report focuses on have received much more scrutiny - but still, as discussed previously, have big question marks surrounding some of the key premises. However, it’s important to distinguish the question of how likely it is that the second species argument is correct, from the question of how seriously we should take it. Often people with very different perspectives on the latter actually don’t disagree very much on the former. I find the following analogy from Stuart Russell illustrative: suppose we got a message from space telling us that aliens would be landing on Earth sometime in the next century. Even if there’s doubt about the veracity of the message, and there’s doubt about whether the aliens will be hostile, we (as a species) should clearly expect this event to be a huge deal if it happens, and dedicate a lot of effort towards making it go well. In the case of AGI, while there’s reasonable doubt about what it will look like, it may nevertheless be the biggest thing that’s ever happened. At the very least we should put serious effort into understanding the arguments I’ve discussed above, how strong they are, and what we might be able to do about them.[1]
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2021 11:29:46
Life 3.0
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Some researchers believe that superintelligence will likely follow shortly after the development of artificial general intelligence or AGI.
Swedish-American physicist, cosmologist and machine learning researcher, Max Tegmark thinks that AI will redefine what it means to be human due to the scale of the changes it will bring about.
He describes early life forms such as bacteria as Life 1.0. The rise of Homo sapiens as Life 2.0 and the potential rise of Superhuman AI as life 3.0.
Max Tegmark describes the current status of our modern society as Life 2.1 due to the increase of technological enhancements of our biology.
He worries that the advent of digital superintelligence also known as artificial superintelligence or ASI will bring about drastic change to our society for the better or for worse.
Artificial intelligence today is properly known as narrow AI. It can perform particular functions at the expert level. However current AI lacks common sense and can only deal with a narrow range of situations compared with humans.
Most surveyed AI researchers expect machines to eventually be able to rival humans in intelligence, though there is little consensus on when this will likely happen.
There are many ways in which AI could surpass human intelligence. We are already studying the algorithms of the brain in order to figure out how our own minds work and use that information to make machines more intelligent. Eventually the machines will be capable of self-improvement and the AI will become a self-reinforcing loop.
The first generally intelligent machines are likely to immediately hold an enormous advantage in at least some forms of mental capability, including the capacity of perfect recall, a vastly superior knowledge base, and the ability to multitask in ways not possible to biological entities. This may give them the opportunity to become much more powerful than humans.
While there are many unknowns about the development of intelligent machines and how we should deal with them, there is no question that AI will play a fundamental role in the future of humanity.
Superintelligence does not necessarily have to be something negative. According to Tegmark if we manage to get it right, it might become the best think to happen to mankind.
The video also emphasizes the importance of goal alignment, which is between homo sapiens and superhuman AI. Unfortunately it doesn't mention what the goal actually is, or what it should be.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 07:43:32
What's the Far Future of Intelligence in the Universe? | Episode 213 | Closer To Truth
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Consider humanity's astounding progress in science during the past three hundred years. Now take a deep breath and project forward, oh say, three billion years. Featuring interviews with Freeman Dyson, Lawrence Krauss, Raymond Kurzweil, Frank Tipler, Robin Collins, and Paul Davies.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 23:28:18
Everyone has to die, so no problem there. Half of the current population will be dead in the next 40 years. The trick is to reduce the population without harming or inconveniencing anyone who matters.Is it a problem if they die sooner?
Is it a problem if they die later?QuoteThere is someone alive today who will live to be 1,000 years old: Why we are living longer than ever?
Researchers are getting a better understanding of the ageing process and the ways it could be slowed, halted or even reversed
https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/live-longer-longevity-stem-cells-ageing-a8332701.html
How would you decide who matters, and who doesn't?
I bring this here from another thread. What your goal would be if you are one of those who will live healthily to more than 1000 years? How would you spend those years?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 23:33:02
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Is Aging a Disease?
Whether aging can be cured or not, there are arguments for thinking about it like a disease. But there are major pitfalls, too.
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The distinction between aging and its underlying causes also affects research funding. Jamie Justice, an assistant professor of gerontology and geriatric medicine at Wake Forest, said during the GSA panel that she doesn’t think “Is aging a disease?” is the right question. The better question, she said, is “Why do we have to force aging to be a disease in order to get clinicians, regulatory officials, and stakeholders to do something about it?” Part of the answer, according to Hayflick, is that what policymakers don’t know about aging dictates their decisions: “policy makers … must understand that the resolution of age-associated diseases will not provide insights into understanding the fundamental biology of age changes. They often believe that it will, and base decisions on that misunderstanding.”
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Because of that misconception, funding for research into age-related diseases such as cancer and Alzheimer’s far exceeds funding for research into biological aging processes. If old age is a risk factor for nearly all of the conditions likely to kill us, Hayflick asks, “why then are we not devoting significantly greater resources to understanding what … increases vulnerability to all age-associated pathology?” Understanding the underlying processes would allow scientists to work on treatments that address the causes of aging, not just its effects.https://slate-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/slate.com/technology/2020/03/aging-disease-classification.amp
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2021 09:43:16
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Summary: Non-invasive brain stimulation, such as rTMS, helps to reduce smoking frequency in nicotine-dependent people, a new study reports. Stimulating the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex with repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation significantly reduced smoking frequency.The research is an early attempt to deliberately modify some of human's desires. Previously, this kind of thing was done through persuasion and indoctrination. In the future, human minds can be reprogrammed at will by those with access to the advanced devices with higher specificity and reliability.
Source: Society for the Study of Addiction
Original Research: Open access.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/add.15624
If outsiders can deliberately change human's desire, the concept of free will becomes questionable.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/08/2021 07:35:27
In the future, human minds can be reprogrammed at will by those with access to the advanced devices with higher specificity and reliability.Letting this hypothetical advanced device to someone who doesn't understand the universal terminal goal is like letting a toddler play with a hand grenade. It can harm himself and everyone around him.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/08/2021 10:08:53
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The Law of Accelerating Returns
March 7, 2001 by Ray Kurzweil
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.
The Intuitive Linear View versus the Historical Exponential View
Most long range forecasts of technical feasibility in future time periods dramatically underestimate the power of future technology because they are based on what I call the “intuitive linear” view of technological progress rather than the “historical exponential view.” To express this another way, it is not the case that we will experience a hundred years of progress in the twenty-first century; rather we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress (at today’s rate of progress, that is).
This disparity in outlook comes up frequently in a variety of contexts, for example, the discussion of the ethical issues that Bill Joy raised in his controversial WIRED cover story, Why The Future Doesn’t Need Us. Bill and I have been frequently paired in a variety of venues as pessimist and optimist respectively. Although I’m expected to criticize Bill’s position, and indeed I do take issue with his prescription of relinquishment, I nonetheless usually end up defending Joy on the key issue of feasibility. Recently a Noble Prize winning panelist dismissed Bill’s concerns, exclaiming that, “we’re not going to see self-replicating nanoengineered entities for a hundred years.” I pointed out that 100 years was indeed a reasonable estimate of the amount of technical progress required to achieve this particular milestone at today’s rate of progress. But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years.
When people think of a future period, they intuitively assume that the current rate of progress will continue for future periods. However, careful consideration of the pace of technology shows that the rate of progress is not constant, but it is human nature to adapt to the changing pace, so the intuitive view is that the pace will continue at the current rate. Even for those of us who have been around long enough to experience how the pace increases over time, our unexamined intuition nonetheless provides the impression that progress changes at the rate that we have experienced recently. From the mathematician’s perspective, a primary reason for this is that an exponential curve approximates a straight line when viewed for a brief duration. So even though the rate of progress in the very recent past (e.g., this past year) is far greater than it was ten years ago (let alone a hundred or a thousand years ago), our memories are nonetheless dominated by our very recent experience. It is typical, therefore, that even sophisticated commentators, when considering the future, extrapolate the current pace of change over the next 10 years or 100 years to determine their expectations. This is why I call this way of looking at the future the “intuitive linear” view.
But a serious assessment of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential. In exponential growth, we find that a key measurement such as computational power is multiplied by a constant factor for each unit of time (e.g., doubling every year) rather than just being added to incrementally. Exponential growth is a feature of any evolutionary process, of which technology is a primary example. One can examine the data
in different ways, on different time scales, and for a wide variety of technologies ranging from electronic to biological, and the acceleration of progress and growth applies. Indeed, we find not just simple exponential growth, but “double” exponential growth, meaning that the rate of exponential growth is itself growing exponentially. These observations do not rely merely on an assumption of the continuation of Moore’s law (i.e., the exponential shrinking of transistor sizes on an integrated circuit), but is based on a rich model of diverse technological processes. What it clearly shows is that technology, particularly the pace of technological change, advances (at least) exponentially, not linearly, and has been doing so since the advent of technology, indeed since the advent of evolution on Earth.
I emphasize this point because it is the most important failure that would-be prognosticators make in considering future trends. Most technology forecasts ignore altogether this “historical exponential view” of technological progress. That is why people tend to overestimate what can be achieved in the short term (because we tend to leave out necessary details), but underestimate what can be achieved in the long term (because the exponential growth is ignored).
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The Law of Accelerating Returns
We can organize these observations into what I call the law of accelerating returns as follows:
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the
rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time. Over time, the “order” of the information embedded in the evolutionary process (i.e., the measure of how well the information fits a purpose, which in evolution is survival) increases.
A correlate of the above observation is that the “returns” of an evolutionary process (e.g., the speed, cost-effectiveness, or overall “power” of a process) increase exponentially over time.
In another positive feedback loop, as a particular evolutionary process (e.g., computation) becomes more effective (e.g., cost effective), greater resources are deployed toward the further progress of that process. This results in a second level of exponential growth (i.e., the rate of exponential growth itself grows exponentially).
Biological evolution is one such evolutionary process.
Technological evolution is another such evolutionary process. Indeed, the emergence of the first technology creating species resulted in the new evolutionary process of technology. Therefore, technological evolution is an outgrowth of–and a continuation of–biological evolution.
A specific paradigm (a method or approach to solving a problem, e.g., shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit as an approach to making more powerful computers) provides exponential growth until the method exhausts its potential. When this happens, a paradigm shift (i.e., a fundamental change in the approach) occurs, which enables exponential growth to continue.
If we apply these principles at the highest level of evolution on Earth, the first step, the creation of cells, introduced the paradigm of biology. The subsequent emergence of DNA provided a digital method to record the results of evolutionary experiments. Then, the evolution of a species who combined rational thought with an opposable appendage (i.e., the thumb) caused a fundamental paradigm shift from biology to technology. The upcoming primary paradigm shift will be from biological thinking to a hybrid combining biological and nonbiological thinking. This hybrid will include “biologically inspired” processes resulting from the reverse engineering of biological brains.
If we examine the timing of these steps, we see that the process has continuously accelerated. The evolution of life forms required billions of years for the first steps (e.g., primitive cells); later on progress accelerated. During the Cambrian explosion, major paradigm shifts took only tens of millions of years. Later on, Humanoids developed over a period of millions of years, and Homo sapiens over a period of only hundreds of thousands of years.
With the advent of a technology-creating species, the exponential pace became too fast for evolution through DNA-guided protein synthesis and moved on to human-created technology. Technology goes beyond mere tool making; it is a process of creating ever more powerful technology using the tools from the previous round of innovation. In this way, human technology is distinguished from the tool making of other species. There is a record of each stage of technology, and each new stage of technology builds on the order of the previous stage.
It becomes necessary to provide a philosophical common ground for the technological progress that happens exponentially. Lack of common ground can cause conflict of interests among continuously improving conscious entities, which in turn can cause significant setbacks to current and future progress. It can even causes mutual assured destruction, which would make the achievements so far have to restart from the scratch. That philosophical common ground is what I found in the universal terminal goal.
Post by: Eternal Student on 12/08/2021 13:59:21
It's been several pages since anyone replied.
It's almost impossible for anyone to follow the gist of the dicsussion now since there would be so much background they would have they read (24 pages).
Can you provide a short summary of what the discussion is about and what has been covered so far?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2021 06:41:15
Hi.The background can be found in a few opening posts of this thread.
It's been several pages since anyone replied.
It's almost impossible for anyone to follow the gist of the dicsussion now since there would be so much background they would have they read (24 pages).
Can you provide a short summary of what the discussion is about and what has been covered so far?
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=71347.msg522329#msg522329
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2021 06:46:36
In this thread I've come into conclusion that the best case scenario for life is that conscious beings keep existing indefinitely and don't depend on particular natural resources. The next best thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the right direction to achieve that best case scenario.
The worst case scenario is that all conscious beings go extinct, since it would make all the efforts we do now are worthless. In a universe without conscious being, the concept of goal itself become meaningless. The next worst thing is that current conscious beings are showing progress in the wrong direction which will eventually lead to that worst case scenario.
I guess my further posts here are only used to see how these concepts can be applied in real life. Also to identify potential problems or obstacles in achieving the goal, and how to overcome them.So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.I realise that I have expressed the idea of universal terminal goal in some different ways. I feel that this one is the least controversial and easiest to follow.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the persepective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/08/2021 13:14:28
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When noted biologist and public intellectual E.O. Wilson visited the Grist offices touting his new book The Meaning of Human Existence, we took the opportunity to ask him: Well? What is it?
What followed was a deep and often funny conversation about who we are, where we came from, and why Interstellar is a poor example of melding science with the humanities (burn, Nolans). Oh, and Mr. Wilson’s also got some heady notions about where both our species and the planet are headed. Watch the video to have your mind blown.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/08/2021 11:34:10
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The origin of consciousness was a world-defining event, comparable only with the origin of life itself. Buried deep in the evolutionary record, the transition to minimal consciousness has far-reaching biological and philosophical implications. In this article, accompanied by art illustrations by Anna Zeligowski, Simona Ginsburg and Eva Jablonka put forward their new theory about how it began. Inspired by a scientific method used to pinpoint the transition from non-life to life, they establish a set of criteria for minimal consciousness and a unique identifying marker that fits them. This marker, they argue, drove the Cambrian explosion of biological diversity and provides an answer to the question of what organisms have consciousness.
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MuZero is an algorithm with a superhuman ability to learn: it has learned to play 57 different Atari video games as well as Chess, Go and Shogi, and defeated the greatest human masters in every one of them. Yet, this amazing algorithm and the computer in which it is implemented are as conscious as your washing machine. Its “intelligence”, manifest in its learning ability, has nothing to do with consciousness – the ability to feel, perceive and think in the deeply subjective sense that we cherish. If you were told that you would become deprived of all subjective perceptions and feelings, you would be devastated and consider such a life to be meaningless. Intelligence – having the ability to learn and solve complex problems like MuZero does – and consciousness – being the subject of experience – seem to be unrelated.
But are intelligence and consciousness really unrelated? Most people have the strong intuition that clever animals like chimpanzees, dolphins, elephants and dogs are conscious, whereas they are less sure about animals like sea anemones, worms and slugs that show only very simple forms of learning.
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We looked at genes, proteins, anatomical brain regions and neurophysiological processes, but none of the many possibilities we examined entailed all the characteristic of consciousness. After a year of searching we found a promising marker: a capacity for open-ended associative learning, which we called unlimited associative learning.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/08/2021 07:01:10
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed its Tesla Bot, designed to be a humanoid robot that will perform boring, and dangerous tasks. Here is everything Musk said about it at its AI day.
In the future, physical works will be optional. Mental works will follow soon. This should make us more humble with our current competitive advantages over our peers.
At that time, some form of universal basic income will be necessary. It will be better if we understand our terminal goal before then.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/08/2021 11:22:53
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Imagine if you could plug your brain into a machine that would bring you ultimate pleasure for the rest of your life. The only catch? You have to permanently leave reality behind. Hayley Levitt and Bethany Rickwald explore Robert Nozick’s thought experiment that he called the Experience Machine.The experiment was meant to refute hedonistic view, and some type of utilitarian moral views. But if you have understood the universal terminal goal logically, starting with cogito ergo sum, and add only necessary assumptions to the reasoning, the answer should be obvious.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/08/2021 22:15:56
Would you opt for a life with no pain? - Hayley Levitt and Bethany RickwaldIt's basically what's being offered by most religions in afterlife for those who follow them.
Science and technology offer similar things, except that they can be done while we're alive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/08/2021 22:19:28
I know the REAL reason Tesla is building human robots! AI Day part 1
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What was the biggest revelation from Tesla's AI Day? Why Teslabot (or Optimus Subprime) of course! In this first of five videos on Tesla AI day, we cover what Elon Musk said this new robot is, how it will work, how it will change the world, and beyond!
Post by: alancalverd on 26/08/2021 22:48:17
A lot of the human body is devoted to consuming food and eliminating waste, just to generate about 10W of continuous useful power or maybe 200W intermittent peak. You can buy a 200W continuous motor for around £50 and hold it in your hand!
Human appendages are remarkably adaptable and fitted with exceptional sensors, but if you want a machine to do a, quote, boring and dangerous job, why not design one that can do exactly that and nothing else? Or maybe a reprogrammable nonhumanoid machine with wheels rather than feet and a really powerful (or extremely precise and sensitive) arm that can break rocks or assemble watches today, and fell trees or bath babies tomorrow.
The human body is very adaptable to doing lots of things not very well, and there is no shortage (indeed a considerable surplus) of these devices around. Even the really clever bit, the brain, which remains far beyond the capability of any technology, is ludicrously cheap to make and fun to train. What the brain needs, in order to better express itself, is dumb machines that do a few things extremely well.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/08/2021 06:51:08
I really can't see the point of a humanoid robot.Have you watched the video?
Human appendages are remarkably adaptable and fitted with exceptional sensors, but if you want a machine to do a, quote, boring and dangerous job, why not design one that can do exactly that and nothing else?What if the details of the jobs keep changing from time to time, while those jobs are still within the limits of normal human capabilities? Such as a personal assistant?
Humanoid robots can do those jobs without having to redesign the physical body for various kind of jobs.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/08/2021 07:09:25
The human body is very adaptable to doing lots of things not very well, and there is no shortage (indeed a considerable surplus) of these devices around. Even the really clever bit, the brain, which remains far beyond the capability of any technology, is ludicrously cheap to make and fun to train. What the brain needs, in order to better express itself, is dumb machines that do a few things extremely well.Imagine a company, or even a country, who deliberately put humans on dangerous jobs in order to reduce the surplus of population.
So, the main advantage of humanoid robots is their expendability without generating backlash an social unrest.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/08/2021 08:43:46
We can train one unit to be a firefighter, another unit to be a medical professional, another unit to be a soldier, or any other profession, and then share the experience with the others, and they can do all of those jobs.
Although humans can also get this capability by getting direct brain interface which has high bandwith access to external memory storages.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/08/2021 14:39:04
restating those basic assumptions in fewer words:Just revisiting my old posts.
1. There is universe.
2. There are universal laws.
Those assumptions are obtained through inductive reasoning from our experience, on top of a more fundamental assumption, which is cogito ergo sum.
Post by: Just thinking on 29/08/2021 20:58:15
In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.I think utopia is reached by all living things at the time of death. This is the only way to escape the environment.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/08/2021 05:23:37
Don't you think it means that killing everyone is a good thing?In this thread I'd like to discuss if there is a goal or desired condition which is applicable for any organisms who have adequate time to evolve or develop until they are basically independent from condition of their natural environments.I think utopia is reached by all living things at the time of death. This is the only way to escape the environment.
Post by: Just thinking on 30/08/2021 05:50:48
Don't you think it means that killing everyone is a good thing?No death comes naturally every one must wait their turn.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/08/2021 11:32:04
Would you prefer to live shorter? or live longer instead?Don't you think it means that killing everyone is a good thing?No death comes naturally every one must wait their turn.
Will you do anything to live longer or shorter (according to your own preference)?
Or you won't do anything of such efforts, and leave it to nature?
Is killed by contagious diseases natural enough for you? what about venomous snake, or being struck by lightning?
Post by: Just thinking on 30/08/2021 19:07:44
Would you prefer to live shorter? or live longer instead?leave it to nature?
Will you do anything to live longer or shorter (according to your own preference)?
Or you won't do anything of such efforts, and
Is killed by contagious diseases natural enough for you? what about venomous snake, or being struck by lightning?
leave it to nature?Is the best way.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/08/2021 06:42:20
leave it to nature?
Is the best way.
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An appeal to nature is an argument or rhetorical tactic in which it is proposed that "a thing is good because it is 'natural', or bad because it is 'unnatural'".[1] It is generally considered to be a bad argument because the implicit (unstated) primary premise "What is natural is good" is typically irrelevant, having no cogent meaning in practice, or is an opinion instead of a fact. In some philosophical frameworks where natural and good are clearly defined within a specific context, the appeal to nature might be valid and cogent.
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Some popular examples of the appeal to nature can be found on labels and advertisements for food, clothing, alternative herbal remedies, and many other areas.[4][9] Labels may use the phrase "all-natural", to imply that products are environmentally friendly and safe. However, whether or not a product is "natural" is irrelevant, in itself, in determining its safety or effectiveness.[4][10] For example, many dangerous poisons are compounds that are found in nature.https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeal_to_nature
It is also common practice for medicine to be brought up as an appeal to nature, stating that medicine is "unnatural" and therefore should not be used.[9] This is particularly notable as an argument employed against the practice of vaccination.[11]
On the topic of meat consumption, Peter Singer argues that it is fallacious to say that eating meat is morally acceptable simply because it is part of the "natural way", as the way that humans and other animals do behave naturally has no bearing on how we should behave. Thus, Singer claims, the moral permissibility or impermissibility of eating meat must be assessed on its own merits, not by appealing to what is "natural".[12]
Post by: Just thinking on 31/08/2021 08:10:28
An appeal to nature is an argument or rhetorical tactic in which it is proposed that "a thing is good because it is 'natural', or bad because it is 'unnatural'Earthquakes and cyclones are part of nature and they are not a good thing but when it comes to death it is a matter of choice at the time as to make every effort to recover or let go and take the easy route utopia.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/08/2021 10:07:23
Earthquakes and cyclones are part of nature and they are not a good thing but when it comes to death it is a matter of choice at the time as to make every effort to recover or let go and take the easy route utopia.mRNA vaccines are unnatural. Does it mean that they are bad, as they can prevent some deaths?
Post by: Just thinking on 31/08/2021 17:36:37
mRNA vaccines are unnatural. Does it mean that they are bad, as they can prevent some deaths?Vaccines are generally a good thing as they provide a path to a natural end.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/09/2021 07:56:06
You seem to contradict yourself.mRNA vaccines are unnatural. Does it mean that they are bad, as they can prevent some deaths?Vaccines are generally a good thing as they provide a path to a natural end.
Would you prefer to live shorter? or live longer instead?leave it to nature?
Will you do anything to live longer or shorter (according to your own preference)?
Or you won't do anything of such efforts, and
Is killed by contagious diseases natural enough for you? what about venomous snake, or being struck by lightning?leave it to nature?Is the best way.
Post by: Just thinking on 01/09/2021 08:23:16
You seem to contradict yourself.Not really as I believe utopia is at the end but we have a choice as to whether we try and extend our lives or let go. I personally would try to extend my life if need be as I do not want to leave my family but whatever happens we must all face the last day when it comes and see if that really is utopia. When I say leave it to nature I mean the nature of the individual in question as to the steps that they take at a critical time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/09/2021 11:57:00
When I say leave it to nature I mean the nature of the individual in question as to the steps that they take at a critical time.
If someone needs a heart surgery, or chemotherapy to stay alive, should they take it?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/09/2021 11:59:51
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In this Wireless Philosophy video, Jennifer Nagel gives an overview of the development of mindreading abilities, starting with infant sensitivity to the direction of gaze, and covering the major milestones up to the hidden emotion task, passed at roughly six years of age.This again shows that consciousness is not a binary measure.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/09/2021 11:54:06
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"But why?". In this Wireless Philosophy video, Kevin McCain (University of Alabama at Birmingham) explains the Epistemic Regress Problem. The epistemic regress problem arises from the need to give a reason for your belief, a reason for that reason, and so on. After explaining the problem, he explains how the problem has been used to argue in favor of skepticism, and discusses three possible solutions to the problem.
I'm in favor of foundationalism, where the reason stops at the most fundamental truth a conscious being can ever have, which is its own existence, as per cogito ergo sum.
Post by: Just thinking on 02/09/2021 18:23:23
If someone needs a heart surgery, or chemotherapy to stay alive, should they take it?Thanks for the videos I found them very interesting. The question of should someone have therapy to stay alive is a responsibility and decision of the individual if one has a need or desire to live then have the therapy or if one feels that their time has come they can let go. What is truly natural is the inner self and we all differ. Variations are the complexities of life and the inner self is as complex as all the universe so there is no easy answer to this complicated question other than personal choice. Universal utopia suggests that there is a perfect solution for contentment and in my mind I can only see this in death and we will all find out in the end which may well be the true beginning of utopia.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/09/2021 01:36:12
What is truly natural is the inner self and we all differ.We can't be sure about that. Someone else might be tinkering with our mind. It can be done through persuasions, indoctrination, chemicals injection, or some more modern electromagnetic devices such as Neuralink or some non-invasive alternatives. Some forms of mind reading are already available. It's expected that mind writing will also be available in not so distant future.
Many suicide bombers are known and documented to do their actions wilfully.
Some serial killers and even cannibals occurred naturally. It's not a reason to say that they are acceptable.
Post by: Just thinking on 03/09/2021 03:31:29
We can't be sure about that. Someone else might be tinkering with our mind. It can be done through persuasions, indoctrination, chemicals injection, or some more modern electromagnetic devices such as Neuralink or some non-invasive alternatives.That would be bad luck if that happened to someone but there is no much that can be done about that some people have a disposition that makes them more susceptible to influence by others.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/09/2021 15:29:09
That would be bad luck if that happened to someone but there is no much that can be done about that some people have a disposition that makes them more susceptible to influence by others.What do you think about persuasion to stop smoking or drinking alcohol?
If we can change someone's will to be a suicide bomber, should we do it? Or should we just kill them?
Post by: Just thinking on 03/09/2021 15:46:11
If we can change someone's will to be a suicide bomber, should we do it? Or should we just kill them?How can we identify a person that has this intention in order to change their will?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/09/2021 17:22:33
Currently, their social media contents, their diaries, personal communication devices, or results of intelligence activities.If we can change someone's will to be a suicide bomber, should we do it? Or should we just kill them?How can we identify a person that has this intention in order to change their will?
In the future, mind reading.
Post by: Just thinking on 03/09/2021 19:25:44
Currently, their social media contents, their diaries, personal communication devices, or results of intelligence activities.If all or even some of the things can stop bad events then that will be a good thing and if this makes a utopia on earth I'm all for it.
In the future, mind reading.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/09/2021 23:16:46
If all or even some of the things can stop bad events then that will be a good thing and if this makes a utopia on earth I'm all for it.How do you determine if something is good or bad?
Their naturalness don't seem to fit the job since natural things can either be good or bad.
Post by: Just thinking on 04/09/2021 02:45:25
How do you determine if something is good or bad?Like you said before we must cheek their diaries phones hidden bugs and best of all the mind reading technique.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/09/2021 03:54:52
I meant about more general cases. I assume that we agree that suicide bombers are generally bad. How about other things, like theft, charity, lying, honesty, rebellion, war, killing, obedience, faith, etc? When do you say that they are good or bad? Are there any exceptions to general cases? What's the justification for the exceptions?How do you determine if something is good or bad?Like you said before we must cheek their diaries phones hidden bugs and best of all the mind reading technique.
Post by: Just thinking on 04/09/2021 05:45:37
I meant about more general cases. I assume that we agree that suicide bombers are generally bad. How about other things, like theft, charity, lying, honesty, rebellion, war, killing, obedience, faith, etc? When do you say that they are good or bad? Are there any exceptions to general cases? What's the justification for the exceptions?I don't think it is possible to rid society of all bad intentions especially the minor ones. Utopia is a place of perfection and that will only be available to those that are already a part of the eternal family a time yet to come. I think many people place themselves in danger by the lifestyle that they live a safe course of being is one that is not a leader and not a follower. When we see a demonstration in the streets and all chaos breaks out what we are seeing is a congregation of people that are largely made up of psychopathic minds that feed of each other they use a demonstration or a rally to act out their intentions. I personally avoid race tracks air shows large sporting events demonstrations places that are dangerous. we can not avoid all tragedy in our lives but we can improve our own chances as all of our thoughts and interactions are our responsibility.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/09/2021 12:00:49
I don't think it is possible to rid society of all bad intentions especially the minor ones.
It means that we must make priority of things.
What's your reference or standard to determine that something is better than the others?
Post by: Just thinking on 04/09/2021 13:12:10
It means that we must make priority of things.This is the problem as everyone has their own interpretation and that leads to disagreement utopia is made to measure and will only suit the ones that it fits. The world tries to accommodate the individual utopia is pacific and therefore discriminating and will only accept the willing and wanting to fit occupants. Utopia is for the meek and mild a place of trust no need for police or army. So my conclusion is there will never be a utopia on earth at this time it is a place in the future we all make our own beds the question for all to ask is utopia made for you.
What's your reference or standard to determine that something is better than the others?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/09/2021 11:37:34
It means that we must make priority of things.This is the problem as everyone has their own interpretation and that leads to disagreement utopia is made to measure and will only suit the ones that it fits. The world tries to accommodate the individual utopia is pacific and therefore discriminating and will only accept the willing and wanting to fit occupants. Utopia is for the meek and mild a place of trust no need for police or army. So my conclusion is there will never be a utopia on earth at this time it is a place in the future we all make our own beds the question for all to ask is utopia made for you.
What's your reference or standard to determine that something is better than the others?
Here is the description of utopia
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A utopia is an imaginary community or society that possesses highly desirable or nearly perfect qualities for its citizens. The term was coined by Sir Thomas More for his 1516 book Utopia, describing a fictional island society in the south Atlantic Ocean off the coast of South America.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Utopia
In any society that still exist, they must have prioritized their existence above any other things that they have encountered. Otherwise, that other thing that they thought to have higher priority than their own existence must have made them go extinct. Some individuals may survive when their society collapses, but they are not its members anymore.
If a society has no defense against invading outsiders or cancerous members or freeloaders, they won't survive for long.
Post by: Just thinking on 05/09/2021 11:57:48
If a society has no defense against invading outsiders or cancerous members or freeloaders, they won't survive for long.I would have thought that universal utopia meant all so no invaders as all are in utopia universal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/09/2021 12:04:09
Yes, universal utopia is the most inclusive utopia imaginable. There would be no outsiders. But there would still be risk of internal threats.If a society has no defense against invading outsiders or cancerous members or freeloaders, they won't survive for long.I would have thought that universal utopia meant all so no invaders as all are in utopia universal.
Post by: Just thinking on 05/09/2021 12:15:41
Yes, universal utopia is the most inclusive utopia imaginable. There would be no outsiders. But there would still be risk of internal threats.If the occupants are not selected by means of supernatural process then a means of mind reading or truth drug will be needed to determine who lives and who is iliminated.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/09/2021 13:28:59
Complete elimination may not be necessary if we have the means to select and edit specific neurons or memes.Yes, universal utopia is the most inclusive utopia imaginable. There would be no outsiders. But there would still be risk of internal threats.If the occupants are not selected by means of supernatural process then a means of mind reading or truth drug will be needed to determine who lives and who is iliminated.
Like wise, diseases caused by genetic disorders can be cured epigenetically. Or, replacement of some cells with new cells containing fixed genes. No killing is absolutely necessary.
Post by: Just thinking on 05/09/2021 15:29:35
Complete elimination may not be necessary if we have the means to select and edit specific neurons or memes.That would be a good option may be a treatment that can rid the human race of the A&E virus and then we can all be good saints as originally intended allowing for utopia now not later.
Like wise, diseases caused by genetic disorders can be cured epigenetically. Or, replacement of some cells with new cells containing fixed genes. No killing is absolutely necessary.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/09/2021 08:14:33
Quote
In a paper published in Nature Neuroscience, researchers pushed the science forward on our reward pathways.
The key to overcoming addictions and psychiatric disorders lives deep inside the netherworld of our brains and the circuitry that causes us to feel good. Just like space, this region of the brain needs more exploration.
The oldest and most known reward pathway is the mesolimbic dopamine system, which is composed of neurons projecting from the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to the nucleus accumbens — a key structure in mediating emotional and motivation processing,
Dopamine is a neurotransmitter that is released when the brain is expecting reward. A spike in dopamine could come be from eating pizza, dancing, shopping and sex. But it can also come from drugs, and lead to substance abuse.
In the search for new therapies to treat addiction and psychiatric illness, researchers are examining pathways beyond dopamine that could play a role in reward and reinforcement.
In a paper published in Nature Neuroscience, researchers from the Bruchas Lab at UW Medicine pushed the science forward on our reward pathways and found another such pathway.
Post by: Just thinking on 06/09/2021 11:54:45
https://scitechdaily.com/beyond-dopamine-new-brain-reward-circuitry-discovered/Maybe we need to eat better more carrots and spinach a good reward for the body,s health it will remove the toxins and clean the mind. They say we are what we eat if we eat rubbish we will be like rubbish.QuoteIn a paper published in Nature Neuroscience, researchers pushed the science forward on our reward pathways.
The key to overcoming addictions and psychiatric disorders lives deep inside the netherworld of our brains and the circuitry that causes us to feel good. Just like space, this region of the brain needs more exploration.
The oldest and most known reward pathway is the mesolimbic dopamine system, which is composed of neurons projecting from the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to the nucleus accumbens — a key structure in mediating emotional and motivation processing,
Dopamine is a neurotransmitter that is released when the brain is expecting reward. A spike in dopamine could come be from eating pizza, dancing, shopping and sex. But it can also come from drugs, and lead to substance abuse.
In the search for new therapies to treat addiction and psychiatric illness, researchers are examining pathways beyond dopamine that could play a role in reward and reinforcement.
In a paper published in Nature Neuroscience, researchers from the Bruchas Lab at UW Medicine pushed the science forward on our reward pathways and found another such pathway.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/09/2021 15:55:42
Post by: Just thinking on 06/09/2021 16:42:42
Have you found your personal terminal goal? Is it compatible with the universal terminal goal?Yes, true happiness is my goal I almost have that now and hope to reinforce it later. There is light at the end of the tunnel.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/09/2021 08:18:31
Yes, true happiness is my goal I almost have that now and hope to reinforce it later. There is light at the end of the tunnel.Have you defined and scrutinized what true happiness is?
Is it about dopamine level? or there's something else?
Post by: Just thinking on 07/09/2021 10:21:29
Have you defined and scrutinized what true happiness is?For me, true happiness comes from health and security yes I enjoy mental stimulation from my hobbies but I know that dopamine is not that important.
Is it about dopamine level? or there's something else?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/09/2021 12:09:12
For me, true happiness comes from health and security yes I enjoy mental stimulation from my hobbies but I know that dopamine is not that important.Without the dopamine, you won't feel the joy. Is that ok for you?
Post by: Just thinking on 07/09/2021 14:33:12
Without the dopamine, you won't feel the joy. Is that ok for you?Yes as I believe that utopia is not far away. The joy that I have now is nothing to the joy that is yet to come.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/09/2021 14:49:12
It implies that your survival is more important than your dopamine level, or happiness.Without the dopamine, you won't feel the joy. Is that ok for you?Yes as I believe that utopia is not far away. The joy that I have now is nothing to the joy that is yet to come.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/09/2021 14:52:10
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Hidden in the microverse all around you, there is a merciless war being fought by the true rulers of this planet, microorganisms. Amoebae, protists, bacteria, archaea and fungi compete for resources and space. And then there are the strange horrors that are viruses, hunting everyone else. Not even being alive, they are the tiniest, most abundant and deadliest beings on earth, killing trillions every day. Not interested in resources, only in living things to take over. Or so we thought.They know no taboo. They just do whatever it takes to survive.
It turns out that there are giant viruses that blur the line between life and death – and other viruses hunting them.
Post by: Just thinking on 07/09/2021 15:00:24
It implies that your survival is more important than your dopamine level.Yes that is true but I realise tath dopamine is a stimulant that is important to drive one forward.
Post by: Just thinking on 07/09/2021 15:13:28
They know no taboo. They just do whatever it takes to survive.Yes I'm sure they do but they have no intelligence. We as intelligent beings can overcome this problem and move forward.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/09/2021 01:34:55
What makes intelligent beings acts differently from non-intelligent things? How do you distinguish between actions that are done based on intelligent decisions and non-intelligent ones?They know no taboo. They just do whatever it takes to survive.Yes I'm sure they do but they have no intelligence. We as intelligent beings can overcome this problem and move forward.
Post by: Just thinking on 08/09/2021 12:16:04
What makes intelligent beings acts differently from non-intelligent things? How do you distinguish between actions that are done based on intelligent decisions and non-intelligent ones?Germs bacteria and organisms are able to organise and flourish but serve little purpose to us apart from healthy bacteria in our body's and food. We humans are hopefully intelligent and can identify favourable outcomes for ourselves. Some germs can get rid of us but we can control our environment and defeat negative outcomes by being vigilant and wise. Most negatives are not very smart.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2021 04:37:19
Germs bacteria and organisms are able to organise and flourish but serve little purpose to us apart from healthy bacteria in our body's and food. We humans are hopefully intelligent and can identify favourable outcomes for ourselves. Some germs can get rid of us but we can control our environment and defeat negative outcomes by being vigilant and wise. Most negatives are not very smart.What makes humans a standard to compare with those germs? Why should they serve a purpose to us?
Post by: Just thinking on 09/09/2021 05:24:57
What makes humans a standard to compare with those germs?Dominants and intelligence are what makes us different.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2021 07:43:48
What makes intelligent beings acts differently from non-intelligent things? How do you distinguish between actions that are done based on intelligent decisions and non-intelligent ones?Intelligent beings make decisions after evaluated possible options, which may have complex relationships with their consequences. It requires capacities related to intelligence, such as memory quantity and fidelity, data processing speed, and efficient algorithms.
Less intelligent beings can only solve simpler problems.
Good chess players make many bad moves. They just make those moves in their minds, so they don't count. Many brilliant chess moves may look like stupid moves at a glance, such as sacrificing queen.
Post by: Just thinking on 09/09/2021 10:54:20
Good chess players make many bad moves. They just make those moves in their minds, so they don't count. Many brilliant chess moves may look like stupid moves at a glance, such as sacrificing queen.But in the real world we don't sacrifice people for germs. Having said that there are people in the world that have no more value than a germ.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2021 13:14:26
But we often see unnecessary sacrifices, just to make a goal look important. All while doing nothing to make the goal more achievable. Or even worse, making it harder to achieve it.
Post by: Just thinking on 09/09/2021 13:25:21
If your goal doesn't need sacrifices, it's not important enough.There is always sacrifice with everything we do such as time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/09/2021 12:26:13
If your goal doesn't need sacrifices, it's not important enough.There is always sacrifice with everything we do such as time.
sacrifice:
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an act of giving up something valued for the sake of something else regarded as more important or worthy.What do you sacrifice time for?
Post by: Just thinking on 13/09/2021 12:36:32
If your goal doesn't need sacrifices, it's not important enough.We sacrifice time for what we consider important. This sounds like catch 22 again.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/09/2021 05:55:53
Our time is expended whether or not we do something important with it.If your goal doesn't need sacrifices, it's not important enough.We sacrifice time for what we consider important. This sounds like catch 22 again.
So when you said
There is always sacrifice with everything we do such as time.What we really sacrifice are other things that we could have done but we must abandon or postpone because of the things that we are doing.
Post by: Just thinking on 15/09/2021 12:19:49
What we really sacrifice are other things that we could have done but we must abandon or postpone because of the things that we are doing.We need to shift all of our time to the important things that make the sacrifices worthwhile.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/09/2021 18:10:34
How would you decide which thing is more important than others?What we really sacrifice are other things that we could have done but we must abandon or postpone because of the things that we are doing.We need to shift all of our time to the important things that make the sacrifices worthwhile.
Post by: Just thinking on 15/09/2021 18:20:54
How would you decide which thing is more important than others?We must prioritise and coordinate all the things that matter.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/09/2021 03:25:53
That's what I asked. How would you prioritize them? What's the justification for sacrificing one thing over the others?How would you decide which thing is more important than others?We must prioritise and coordinate all the things that matter.
Post by: Just thinking on 16/09/2021 08:08:54
How would you prioritize them? What's the justification for sacrificing one thing over the others?The things that matter are the important things that we must prioritise. The most important things are the needs we have to sustain our lives food before alcohol clothing before sigerattes rent before holidays tools before toys. Common sense must be in place ahead of fun and games.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/09/2021 11:46:07
The most important things are the needs we have to sustain our lives food before alcohol clothing before sigerattes rent before holidays tools before toys.Let's make explicit what assumptions we have to make in making that statement above.
Whose lives should we try to preserve? Is it our own self as individual? What do you think about altruistic behaviors?
Is there something more important than your own life?
Why sustaining lives is considered as good thing?
Post by: Just thinking on 16/09/2021 12:17:25
Let's make explicit what assumptions we have to make in making that statement above.I think altruistic actions are important and one should always accommodate kindness and support others. The problem arises when supporting others outside of our own family create less than your expectations for your own loved ones this statement supports the old saying family comes first. Charity is possible by means of surplus and available time, money and goods.
Whose lives should we try to preserve? Is it our own self as individual? What do you think about altruistic behaviors?
Is there something more important than your own life?
Why sustaining lives is considered as good thing?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/09/2021 12:42:27
We need a reliable moral compass to answer those questions with confidence that we won't regret them in the future.Let's make explicit what assumptions we have to make in making that statement above.I think altruistic actions are important and one should always accommodate kindness and support others. The problem arises when supporting others outside of our own family create less than your expectations for your own loved ones this statement supports the old saying family comes first. Charity is possible by means of surplus and available time, money and goods.
Whose lives should we try to preserve? Is it our own self as individual? What do you think about altruistic behaviors?
Is there something more important than your own life?
Why sustaining lives is considered as good thing?
And that compass is the universal terminal goal. There are many other questions we can think of. Let's start with simpler case where family factor is excluded from consideration, since it's balanced for both options in a decision.
Which one is better: Someone sacrificing themself to save their parent, or someone sacrificing themself to save their children? What's the reason?
Here's another: Someone young and healthy sacrificing themself to save their sibling with birth defects, which is physically and mentally disabled, or someone with birth defects, who is physically and mentally disabled, sacrificing themself to save their sibling who is young and healthy? What's the reason?
Post by: Just thinking on 16/09/2021 13:04:19
Which one is better: Someone sacrificing themself to save their parent, or someone sacrificing themself to save their children? What's the reason?This is a very interesting question. My answer to this is actually a reversal as I love my wife and son so much and my first priority is to protect them if I was to die I could not carry out this priority so my answer may sound selfish but I would rather free them first of this dangerous world or at the very least see my son grow to an age where he can protect himself.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/09/2021 03:36:50
The answer doesn't have to be one fit for all. It may depend on other factors not mentioned in the question. For example, if the parents are already very old, with degenerative diseases, and no longer have the capacity to survive on their own, then sacrificing their children to extend their declining lives doesn't seem to be wise.Which one is better: Someone sacrificing themself to save their parent, or someone sacrificing themself to save their children? What's the reason?This is a very interesting question. My answer to this is actually a reversal as I love my wife and son so much and my first priority is to protect them if I was to die I could not carry out this priority so my answer may sound selfish but I would rather free them first of this dangerous world or at the very least see my son grow to an age where he can protect himself.
The sacrifice itself doesn't have to be an acute action. It can also be chronic, such as cross subsidy. Less resources are given to less productive citizen, while more resources are given to more productive citizen, at least potentially.
Post by: Just thinking on 18/09/2021 08:32:59
I've got a joke for U: Why can a good Muslim have 4 wives? A whole set, of 'em.I like your philosophy and you have revealed your nature quite well. As for the four wives, I asked my wife and she said no I can still dream. I like the parable of your heart on the left and your brain on the right maybe not a parable at all.
So he can have a blonde, a brunette, a blackette and a redhead.
That's a good system. That's what every man needs. "Variety is the spice of life".
And they say that a man needs a good workout 4 times a week, and that's the best kind. Right?
"Strength thru joy" and all that.
But/t what I'm really trying to say, to U, is that warriors are not concerned with petty concerns/questions,
and I'm more of a pre-Socratic/natural philosopher, and I have a Spartan morality.
Is this like something U want/ed?
Post by: Just thinking on 18/09/2021 08:43:08
The answer doesn't have to be one fit for all. It may depend on other factors not mentioned in the question. For example, if the parents are already very old, with degenerative diseases, and no longer have the capacity to survive on their own, then sacrificing their children to extend their declining lives doesn't seem to be wise.This is true hopefully the children are not so young and have already proven that they can look after themselves this type of situation can give some peace of mind to the one about to pass.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/09/2021 19:18:07
There are some parts of India where a woman can have many husbands so they can share economic burden.I've got a joke for U: Why can a good Muslim have 4 wives? A whole set, of 'em.I like your philosophy and you have revealed your nature quite well. As for the four wives, I asked my wife and she said no I can still dream. I like the parable of your heart on the left and your brain on the right maybe not a parable at all.
So he can have a blonde, a brunette, a blackette and a redhead.
That's a good system. That's what every man needs. "Variety is the spice of life".
And they say that a man needs a good workout 4 times a week, and that's the best kind. Right?
"Strength thru joy" and all that.
But/t what I'm really trying to say, to U, is that warriors are not concerned with petty concerns/questions,
and I'm more of a pre-Socratic/natural philosopher, and I have a Spartan morality.
Is this like something U want/ed?
Post by: Just thinking on 18/09/2021 19:52:54
There are some parts of India where a woman can have many husbands so they can share economic burden.My wife said no to many wives so I say no to many husbands. Yes, there are many ways and many customs.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 08:51:08
The preference for improvement is inherently anti status quo. A tool to eliminate status quo bias is called reversal test.
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The reversal test is a heuristic designed to spot and eliminate status quo bias, an emotional bias irrationally favouring the current state of affairs. The test is applicable to the evaluation of any decision involving a potential deviation from the status quo along some continuous dimension. The reversal test was introduced in the context of the bioethics of human enhancement by Nick Bostrom and Toby Ord.[1]https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversal_test
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Bostrom and Ord introduced the reversal test to provide an answer to the question of how one can, given that humans might suffer from irrational status quo bias, distinguish between valid criticisms of proposed increase in some human trait and criticisms merely motivated by resistance to change.[1] The reversal test attempts to do this by asking whether it would be a good thing if the trait was decreased: An example given is that if someone objects that an increase in intelligence would be a bad thing due to more dangerous weapons being made etc., the objector to that position would then ask "Shouldn't we decrease intelligence then?"
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 10:42:36
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Alfred Nordmann argues that the reversal test merely erects a straw-man argument in favour of enhancement. He claims that the tests are limited to approaches that are consequentialist and deontological. He adds that one cannot view humans as sets of parameters that can be optimized separately or without regard to their history.[4]My answer to the criticism above is that any plan is inherently consequential. We make decisions based on the consequences of each available options, and weigh in their cost and benefit.
Christian Weidemann argues that the double reversal test can muddy the water; guaranteeing and weighing transition costs versus benefits might be the relevant practical ethical question for much human enhancement analysis.[5]
Granted, any improvement may have side effects. That's why we need ingenuity to maximize the improvement while minimising the side effects. We've done it with vaccine. We're also getting better with gene therapy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 12:01:06
So anyone still exist in the distant future must come from someone who survive various conditions from the past to that point in the future. They don't have to be the same individuals as those who currently existing ones. But they are likely products of continuous improvement of conscious entities before them. It's extremely unlikely that they will come up spontaneously from a random event.
Post by: Just thinking on 19/09/2021 12:58:02
They don't have to be the same individuals as those who currently existing ones. But they are likely products of continuous improvement of conscious entities before them. It's extremely unlikely that they will come up spontaneously from a random event.I think this is what is taking place now only it is not a continuous improvement but a declining world. society is at great risk of self destruction as many countries are trying to lift their standards but failing. I will give some examples of why, One hundred years ago the population of the world went about their business without knowing what the rest were doing now we have television and the internet as well as fast cheap travel the world is very interconnected and as a result, much jealousy has arisen due to the poor and depressed not having the same pleasure that they have seen the rest enjoy. The depressed will always look for happiness the happy will just look at the depressed.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 16:02:52
But lately progress in AI, as well as current chip shortage told me that it may not be the case. It seems like the hardest thing humans can do to be imitated by machines is reproduction. No machine is close enough at building its own replica. At least their CPU is built by other machine especially designed to produce CPU. If it's true, then the only clear advantage that humans have over the machines is something that is not that impressive among other biological organisms. The ability to reproduce has been developed since earliest forms of life on earth.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 16:54:37
I think this is what is taking place now only it is not a continuous improvement but a declining world.That always happens in evolutionary process. Random mutations followed by natural selection. Some of the mutations might be bad, some others are neutral. Only a small portion of the mutations are good. But natural selection will make those good mutations more likely to survive and passed on to the next generation.
Post by: Just thinking on 19/09/2021 17:02:45
Only a small portion of the mutations are good. But natural selection will make those good mutations more likely to survive and passed on to the next generation.That makes good sense the earth's population needs to deplete hopefully leaving only the good to replenish it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2021 17:43:49
But lately progress in AI, as well as current chip shortage told me that it may not be the case. It seems like the hardest thing humans can do to be imitated by machines is reproduction. No machine is close enough at building its own replica. At least their CPU is built by other machine especially designed to produce CPU. If it's true, then the only clear advantage that humans have over the machines is something that is not that impressive among other biological organisms. The ability to reproduce has been developed since earliest forms of life on earth.I know this one is controversial. It would hurt human's feeling of dignity and pride as the ruler/master of the earth, as well as the smartest and wisest species known to exist.
Post by: Just thinking on 19/09/2021 18:03:59
I know this one is controversial. It would hurt human's feeling of dignity and pride as the ruler/master of the earth, as well as the smartest and wisest species known to exist.Yes, it is a bit of a blow its taken thousands of years for people to develop intelligence and acquire knowledge that computers can achieve in seconds what a person will take a lifetime to process. It's not difficult for humans to reproduce and yes this is one thing we have over computers but don't forget we can also experience pleasure and all emotions something a computer will never do.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/09/2021 04:55:24
Yes, it is a bit of a blow its taken thousands of years for people to develop intelligence and acquire knowledge that computers can achieve in seconds what a person will take a lifetime to process. It's not difficult for humans to reproduce and yes this is one thing we have over computers but don't forget we can also experience pleasure and all emotions something a computer will never do.One of the main advantage of machines over biological organisms is their inherent ability of transfer learning. Training result of neural networks in a machine can be transfered to other machines seamlessly. On the other hand, each human professionals need to undergo trainings which can be expensive and take a long time to finish. Humans augmented with direct brain interface to external memory can catch up with machines in this regards.
If we want to make machines experience pleasure and all emotions, we need to define what they are in the first place.
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What's the benefits expected from machines that can experience pleasure and emotion? What's the cost and risk?
- a strong feeling deriving from one's circumstances, mood, or relationships with others.
- instinctive or intuitive feeling as distinguished from reasoning or knowledge.
If we use description in Wikipedia,
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Emotions are biologically-based psychological states brought on by neurophysiological changes, variously associated with thoughts, feelings, behavioural responses, and a degree of pleasure or displeasure.[1][2][3][4][5] There is currently no scientific consensus on a definition.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotion
Then non-biological entities are barred from having emotion by its very own definition. So there's no point in trying to make machines emotional.
But if we only consider behavioural responses, then machines can definitely be programmed to behave like they have emotions.
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Based on discoveries made through neural mapping of the limbic system, the neurobiological explanation of human emotion is that emotion is a pleasant or unpleasant mental state organized in the limbic system of the mammalian brain. If distinguished from reactive responses of reptiles, emotions would then be mammalian elaborations of general vertebrate arousal patterns, in which neurochemicals (for example, dopamine, noradrenaline, and serotonin) step-up or step-down the brain's activity level, as visible in body movements, gestures and postures. Emotions can likely be mediated by pheromones (see fear).[34]
For example, the emotion of love is proposed to be the expression of Paleocircuits of the mammalian brain (specifically, modules of the cingulate cortex (or gyrus)) which facilitate the care, feeding, and grooming of offspring. Paleocircuits are neural platforms for bodily expression configured before the advent of cortical circuits for speech. They consist of pre-configured pathways or networks of nerve cells in the forebrain, brainstem and spinal cord.
Other emotions like fear and anxiety long thought to be exclusively generated by the most primitive parts of the brain (stem) and more associated to the fight-or-flight responses of behavior, have also been associated as adaptive expressions of defensive behavior whenever a threat is encountered. Although defensive behaviors have been present in a wide variety of species, Blanchard et al. (2001) discovered a correlation of given stimuli and situation that resulted in a similar pattern of defensive behavior towards a threat in human and non-human mammals.[95]
Whenever potentially dangerous stimuli is presented additional brain structures activate that previously thought (hippocampus, thalamus, etc). Thus, giving the amygdala an important role on coordinating the following behavioral input based on the presented neurotransmitters that respond to threat stimuli. These biological functions of the amygdala are not only limited to the "fear-conditioning" and "processing of aversive stimuli", but also are present on other components of the amygdala. Therefore, it can referred the amygdala as a key structure to understand the potential responses of behavior in danger like situations in human and non-human mammals.[96]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotion#Neurobiological_explanation
I've read about experiments with inhibitors of neurotransmitters which makes human subjects unable to feel emotions from having experiences that usually make them emotional, such as pleasure, happiness, sadness, or fear.
If what you mean by computer is commonly used desktop PC or laptop, then it's unlikely to have them behave based on activation of neurotransmitters. But there's nothing in principle will stop them from being augmented with a neural network systems influenced by activation of chemical neurotransmitters, which makes them capable of experiencing emotions.
Post by: Just thinking on 25/09/2021 20:26:43
If we want to make machines experience pleasure and all emotions, we need to define what they are in the first place.This is a good question I think that whatever the deep process is that generates and decides the emotion that we may feel it is going to be very complicated. If we look at it like this when we are learning a new art say flying we are inundated with confusion and fear after some time and much practice we become more confident after more time we can fly with muscle memory this is to say it becomes a natural extension of one's self to be at the controls and fly. Our feelings emotions are extensions of our natural instinct there are two main instincts love and fear love creates care and fear creates hate as they say there are two sides to every coin it would be impossible to have it any other way. It is at this point that the full spectrum of emotions develop this is the foundation for all and full consideration it is the driver of appropriate and respectful consideration for one another. Even wild animals have the ability to love as they can raise their young and maintain their partner this is just like muscle memory and it stays because it works. To have the ability to learn we must have resistance we strengthen our bodies by resistance we develop our emotions by the same principle having the opposite force applied good and bad, happy and sad laugh and cry and so it goes on. This would be very complex for a man made system to achieve may be impossible.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/09/2021 02:46:32
Even wild animals have the ability to love as they can raise their young and maintain their partner this is just like muscle memory and it stays because it works.Many animals abandon their offspring. Some may eat them. Female praying mantis behead and eat their mates after copulation. Their survival demonstrates that their behaviors also work, so far.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/09/2021 02:50:20
This would be very complex for a man made system to achieve may be impossible.To show that something is impossible, we need to demonstrate that it would lead to absurd or contradictory implications. Complexity alone is not enough.
Post by: Just thinking on 26/09/2021 12:15:20
Many animals abandon their offspring. Some may eat them.I should have stated that I was referring more to mammals and primates.
Post by: Sebdoc on 26/09/2021 18:23:59
How some living beings choose to behave together affects whether living together is fun for them or not.
Nature has a cycle of life and death and all living beings participate in this cycle of life and death as an act of balancing (I'm trying to clarify what I mean by act of balancing below)
In the forest, living beings are dying at any moment, still the forest is fun to experience for the living beings inside the forest, as long as the entire forest isn't dying.
In a group of humans, the cycle of life and death can work either naturally,
meaning one dies of natural causes, or by human choice, meaning some decided the removal of one from the group (which can lead to death even if not directly intended).
For humans in a group to decide the removal of one from the group, and still be able to keep having fun, this choice has to be made with common sense, meaning humans decide commonly to do something that nature planned for them to find before they existed (why before they existed I am trying to explain below...)
If humans in a group commonly decide to do something that nature didn't plan for them before they existed, they are free to do that, but when they do...what the group thinks is common sense, nature thinks otherwise, and the group degenerates to not fun, as...
...it seems unlikely to me that the choices that a group of humans makes, are more fun than what nature had to decide as common sense for humans as a species, before humans existed... as when humans find something that is common sense to them, this they write down, and this they keep reading over and over for many generations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/09/2021 22:52:28
It's not universal then.Many animals abandon their offspring. Some may eat them.I should have stated that I was referring more to mammals and primates.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/09/2021 07:35:05
How some living beings choose to behave together affects whether living together is fun for them or not.What's fun? What makes something fun?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2021 11:54:00
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In this video I discuss the HUGE implications of Elon Musk’s recent comments on humanoid robots (Tesla Bot aka Optimus Bot), the economy, labor and Artificial Intelligence. The implications of what robots will do the economy are profound.If work is optional, what will you do to spend your time? What goal will you try to achieve?
3:39 Why AI Robots will make YOU Obsolete
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/10/2021 05:11:54
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Getting paid to do nothing has become this generation's highest goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/10/2021 09:05:58
Neuroscience tells us that fun things are those which lead to release of dopamine to the brain. Neuroscientists can hack it to make you feel happy or have fun for no reason.How some living beings choose to behave together affects whether living together is fun for them or not.What's fun? What makes something fun?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/10/2021 15:03:57
We end up with capacity-circularity, which can't be a flaw in an argument, because it's not a property of arguments in themselves.
The capacity to reason isn't a premise or a rule, so the argument for its legitimacy need not be premise-circular or rule-circular.
This argument is closely related to anthropic principle and cogito ergo sum, which I've mentioned before.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/10/2021 06:32:47
The article below tries to understand the fundamentals of cognition by studying simplest life forms into details.
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https://aeon.co/essays/the-study-of-the-mind-needs-a-copernican-shift-in-perspective
On the origin of minds
Cognition did not appear out of nowhere in ‘higher’ animals but goes back millions, perhaps billions, of years
...
What is cognition? Like many mental concepts, the term has no consensus definition, a fact that infuriated William James 130 years ago and occasional others since. This is my definition: Cognition comprises the means by which organisms become familiar with, value, exploit and evade features of their surroundings in order to survive, thrive and reproduce.
Evolution had laid a foundation of capacities considered cognitive well before nervous systems appeared.
Microbes can illuminate cognitive mechanisms ordinarily associated with complex animals
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‘There is grandeur in this view of life,’ Darwin writes, and he is correct. We can now see ourselves – with scientific justification and with no need for mystical overlay or anthropomorphism – in a daffodil, an earthworm, perhaps even a bacterium, as well as a chimpanzee. We share common origins. We share genes. We share many of the mechanisms by which we become familiar with and value the worlds that our senses make. We are all struggling for existence, each in our own way, dependent on one another, striving to survive, to thrive and (for some) to reproduce, on this planet we share – which is not the centre of the Universe, or even the solar system, but is the only home any one of us has.
Just as we have come to think of our bodies as evolved from simpler forms of body, it is time to embrace Darwin’s radical idea that our minds, too, are evolved from much simpler minds. Body and mind evolved together and will continue to do so.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/10/2021 09:41:28
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/10/2021 07:25:42
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Inventor, entrepreneur and visionary Ray Kurzweil explains in abundant, grounded detail why, by the 2020s, we will have reverse-engineered the human brain and nanobots will be operating your consciousness.The vidoe was uploaded on 13 Jan 2007. It looks like he's a little bit too optimistic. But his assertion that progress grows exponentially still looks valid.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/10/2021 07:02:27
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Singularity University's Exponential Manufacturing Summit leads 500+ of the world's brightest executives, entrepreneurs and investors through an intensive three-day program in Boston to prepare them for the changes brought forth by unstoppable technological progress.
From May 17-19, 2017, we explored how exponential technologies including artificial intelligence, additive manufacturing, exponential energy, and bio manufacturing are continually redefining the future of work, production, supply chain, and design.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/10/2021 08:59:57
https://twitter.com/risephilosophy/status/1453346744142483460
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Question:
If you could teach everyone in the world one concept, what concept would have the biggest positive impact on humanity?
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The Universal Terminal Goal.
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What it is?
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It's implied by the definition of each word in the phrase. The "goal" requires the existence of at least 1 conscious entities. The "terminal" implies that the goal is long term, put in the future as far as conceivable. The "universal" implies that it's always applicable anywhere.
In short, the universal terminal goal is to extend the existence of consciousness as far as possible into the future, regardless of their locations and forms.
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Escaping the heat death of the universe
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It can be a terminal goal. But it's not universal, because it's not applicable to conscious entities who don't recognize the concept of heat death.
Moreover, we don't yet know for sure about it. It's an extrapolation of what we observed in nature. It's still possible that future universe will behave differently than the regular patterns that we've seen until now.
And we will never know if we go extinct before then. So we should do our best to prevent it, at least from known existential threats. We must also beware of black swan events. That's why becoming a multiplanetary society is important.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/10/2021 14:45:33
https://www.edge.org/3rd_culture/taleb09/taleb09_index.html
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In his "Ten Principles for a Black Swan-robust world", Nassim Nicholas Taleb is on the ramparts assuming an activist role in urging us "to move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the 'Nobel' in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties."
"Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news."
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TEN PRINCIPLES FOR A BLACK-SWAN-ROBUST WORLD
1. What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail. Evolution in economic life helps those with the maximum amount of hidden risks – and hence the most fragile – become the biggest.
2. No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing. We have managed to combine the worst of capitalism and socialism. In France in the 1980s, the socialists took over the banks. In the US in the 2000s, the banks took over the government. This is surreal.
3. People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus. The economics establishment (universities, regulators, central bankers, government officials, various organisations staffed with economists) lost its legitimacy with the failure of the system. It is irresponsible and foolish to put our trust in the ability of such experts to get us out of this mess. Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean.
4. Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks. Odds are he would cut every corner on safety to show “profits” while claiming to be “conservative”. Bonuses do not accommodate the hidden risks of blow-ups. It is the asymmetry of the bonus system that got us here. No incentives without disincentives: capitalism is about rewards and punishments, not just rewards.
5. Counter-balance complexity with simplicity. Complexity from globalisation and highly networked economic life needs to be countered by simplicity in financial products. The complex economy is already a form of leverage: the leverage of efficiency. Such systems survive thanks to slack and redundancy; adding debt produces wild and dangerous gyrations and leaves no room for error. Capitalism cannot avoid fads and bubbles: equity bubbles (as in 2000) have proved to be mild; debt bubbles are vicious.
6. Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning. Complex derivatives need to be banned because nobody understands them and few are rational enough to know it. Citizens must be protected from themselves, from bankers selling them “hedging” products, and from gullible regulators who listen to economic theorists.
7. Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”. Cascading rumours are a product of complex systems. Governments cannot stop the rumours. Simply, we need to be in a position to shrug off rumours, be robust in the face of them.
8. Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains. Using leverage to cure the problems of too much leverage is not homeopathy, it is denial. The debt crisis is not a temporary problem, it is a structural one. We need rehab.
9. Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement. Economic life should be definancialised. We should learn not to use markets as storehouses of value: they do not harbour the certainties that normal citizens require. Citizens should experience anxiety about their own businesses (which they control), not their investments (which they do not control).
10. Make an omelette with the broken eggs. Finally, this crisis cannot be fixed with makeshift repairs, no more than a boat with a rotten hull can be fixed with ad-hoc patches. We need to rebuild the hull with new (stronger) materials; we will have to remake the system before it does so itself. Let us move voluntarily into Capitalism 2.0 by helping what needs to be broken break on its own, converting debt into equity, marginalising the economics and business school establishments, shutting down the “Nobel” in economics, banning leveraged buyouts, putting bankers where they belong, clawing back the bonuses of those who got us here, and teaching people to navigate a world with fewer certainties.
Then we will see an economic life closer to our biological environment: smaller companies, richer ecology, no leverage. A world in which entrepreneurs, not bankers, take the risks and companies are born and die every day without making the news.
In other words, a place more resistant to black swans.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/11/2021 05:20:48
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Two hundred million years ago, our mammal ancestors developed a new brain feature: the neocortex. This stamp-sized piece of tissue (wrapped around a brain the size of a walnut) is the key to what humanity has become. Now, futurist Ray Kurzweil suggests, we should get ready for the next big leap in brain power, as we tap into the computing power in the cloud.Let's check if our currently held goals and highest priorities will still be relevant in the future situations as predicted in the video. If not, we'd better start looking for new goals and change our priorities.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/11/2021 12:19:40
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Elon Musk discusses his new project digging tunnels under LA, the latest from Tesla and SpaceX and his motivation for building a future on Mars in conversation with TED's Head Curator, Chris Anderson.In the end of the video, Elon reminds us that progress should not be taken for granted. We must passionately work for it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/11/2021 06:36:05
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Solar Foods is a startup making food out of thin air.This lab is trying to achieve higher efficiency for sustaining human consciousness.
While we currently produce more than enough food to feed the world — making hunger, maddeningly, a problem of access, not abundance — that abundance comes at a steep environmental cost.
As plant-based alternatives to meat are growing in popularity and market share, their production still requires large-scale agricultural processes. And while growing crops has a smaller carbon footprint than raising animals, that does not mean it accounts for nothing.
Solar Foods believes the answer to a more sustainable food source is to not count on better agricultural practices or consuming less animal products — or the entire field of food production at all. To create this new, sustainable food source, Solar Foods has created a novel form of food — a protein made from single-cell organisms called Solein.
Needing primarily electricity and water, single-cell proteins can potentially be grown in the harshest of Earth environments as well. Places where traditional agriculture is difficult to impossible could produce their own sustainable food.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/11/2021 04:30:28
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2021 04:45:25
I'm still waiting for your answers to the questions above. To be fair, I'll also try to answer them in my opinion.It is also clear that species compete for resources, so the elimination of the species that most seriously damages the ecological equilibrium (homo sapiens) would be a Good Thing for the planet as a whole, assuming that biodiversity and sustainability of life are desirable.What do you expect to happen if humans go extinct in near future?
Will other species that survive stay how they are now indefinitely? Will some of them evolve to replace the ecological niche left out by humans? Will they follow the path of human evolution and develop science and technology? Will they repeat humans' mistakes? What makes you sure that they will be wiser?
The other species will continue the evolutionary process. The details of their evolutionary paths will depend on environmental changes at that time.
Some of them may improve their cognitive abilities. Given enough time, they might get close to, or even exceed current human levels.
They will also develop science and technology. They will repeat some of human's mistakes. They will also make new mistakes haven't been done by humans.
The problem is, the time required for the process can be very long. It might even exceed the time when the earth becomes no longer habitable to any living organisms. There's no guarantee that they will be able to pass the great filter. In this regards, humans have a clear advantage in the form of a head start.
Imagine a star undergoing a supernova. The star has a planet which contains evolved lifeforms. Some of them have developed to similar level of culture, science, and technology as medieval humans. They are all destroyed without a trace due to the explosion. Their billions of years of evolutionary process, as well as millenias of cultural and moral development would be meaningless to the universe. Conscious entities which exist after that won't see the difference between their existence and non-existence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2021 06:09:29
1. Those who think that there is a universal terminal goal, and act accordingly.
2. Those who think that there is a universal terminal goal, but act contrary to the thought.
3. Those who think that there is no universal terminal goal, and act accordingly.
4. Those who think that there is no universal terminal goal, but act contrary to the thought.
Any conscious entities that exist in the far future are almost surely come from type 1 conscious entities. Type 2 and 4 are unreliable, hence their results are mostly random. In long term, their chance to survive (preserve consciousness in any form) diminishes to near zero. Type 3 will extinct much earlier.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/12/2021 07:49:21
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Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia GalefThe soldier and scout metaphor is closely related to deductive and inductive reasoning, respectively. To survive, we need to set them in balance. Being too close minded will prevent us from responding quickly enough in environmental changes, and lose in the competition. Being too open minded will make us vulnerable from scams.
Perspective is everything, especially when it comes to examining your beliefs. Are you a soldier, prone to defending your viewpoint at all costs — or a scout, spurred by curiosity? Julia Galef examines the motivations behind these two mindsets and how they shape the way we interpret information, interweaved with a compelling history lesson from 19th-century France. When your steadfast opinions are tested, Galef asks: "What do you most yearn for? Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?"
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/12/2021 09:23:24
The soldier and scout metaphor is closely related to deductive and inductive reasoning, respectively.They are also related to ought-is problem, respectively. The scouts simply try to map their environment as it is. While the soldiers try to make/keep their environment as what it ought to be.
Both are needed in decision making process to determine what needs to be done.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/12/2021 04:38:22
How much do you value your own life?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/12/2021 12:28:23
This thread will be used to discuss other topics related to our universal goals which are not already covered in the spin off threads. One of those topics are economy, which is basically talking about resource allocation. The video below is a good starting point to introduce us to the modern economy.
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From cryptocurrencies to NFTs, crypto seems as though it's here to stay - but is that a good thing? To find out, I debated.. myself.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/12/2021 05:16:00
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A recent report from the Lancet Commission suggests that more than 200,000 lives could have been saved in the United States if a Medicare for All, Single Payer healthcare system had been in place when the coronavirus pandemic struck. Yet many Americans remain skeptical of Medicare for All, primarily because of the propaganda and scare tactics coming out of the for-profit healthcare industry, including Big Pharma, health insurance companies, medical device manufacturers, and their mouthpieces in the mainstream media.Removing the "middlemen" is a form of improving efficiency, which is the universal instrumental goal. Although this would affect negatively to those middlemen, since they would lose income, or even their jobs. This has happened to extinct jobs like telephone switchboard operators. Many other jobs are about to follow suit.
In this clip Jimmy addresses the #1 myth about Medicare for All -- that we should be afraid of a "government takeover" of the healthcare system.
https://www.boredpanda.com/extinct-jobs/
https://www.careeraddict.com/disappearing-jobs
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Although the prospects for these jobs might look grim, it’s not all bad news. A 2017 report by tech giant Dell claims that 85% of the jobs that will be available in 2030 have not even been invented yet, with the technological landscape set to become unrecognizable over the next 13 years.
Many of the jobs in this list will also become redefined as opposed to totally eradicated, with skills that can be transferable to other roles. Flexibility and a willingness to change careers will be an important attribute in the future job market.
If you want to be totally bulletproof from the claws of progression, though, author and futurist Martin Ford recommends pursuing a career in industries that require creative and interpersonal skills, such as art, science, business and medicine. So far, computers cannot replicate true human inspiration and intellect, so these occupations seem safe (for now)!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/12/2021 06:11:48
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Person of the Year is a marker of influence, and few individuals have had more influence than Musk on life on Earth, and potentially life off Earth too. In 2021, Musk emerged not just as the world’s richest person but also as perhaps the richest example of a massive shift in our society.
His achievement doesn't happen suddenly over night. We can see retrospectively from older interview many years ago.
Elon Musk - CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX | Entrepreneurship | Khan Academy
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/12/2021 08:25:49
Removing the "middlemen" is a form of improving efficiency, which is the universal instrumental goal. Although this would affect negatively to those middlemen, since they would lose income, or even their jobs. This has happened to extinct jobs like telephone switchboard operators. Many other jobs are about to follow suit.In an interview, Elon Musk said that politicians in representative democracy are basically the middlemen in politic of a country. He preferred to have direct voting methods as direct participation of citizens in democratic decision making process.
It wasn't feasible back then due to technical problem, but it should be possible now. Representative democracy makes it possible for politicians to accumulate power, and makes them easier to conduct corrupt behaviors. Their decisions don't always reflect the preferences of their citizens.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/12/2021 21:23:32
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Naval (@naval) tweeted at 0:23 PM on Thu, Dec 30, 2021:
Evolution only has to use genes to get to a universal computer species, and then the whole system switches to memetic evolution.
The product of memetic evolution, aka knowledge, allows that species to modify genes and its environment directly after that.
(https://twitter.com/naval/status/1476423727529152512?t=6AXZpa9ng0ol9tBDUzCFYg&s=03)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/01/2022 10:27:43
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/01/2022 08:10:33
Descartes' Most Famous Idea | Explained
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"I think, therefore I am" is perhaps the most famous phrase in the history of Western philosophy. Most people have heard it, many know what it means, but fewer still are aware of the myriad debates surrounding its meaning, translation, and success. I certainly wasn't before encountering it at university, where I chose to specialise in early modern philosophy.
This video is an introduction to "the cogito", as it is often called, and a brief exploration of some of the debates that surround it.
(A note: I refer to a horse and a horn as a Humean "simple idea" - this is not quite right: a simple idea is one which cannot be broken down into further simple ideas (such as colours, smells, etc.). To explain this nuance would have been an irrelevant detour, and the point ought still carry. A unicorn is, to correctly invoke Hume, a complex idea made up of further complex ideas, made up of simple ideas, which originate in simple impressions.)
(Note 2: Some empiricists will claim that knowledge comes *primarily* from our sense data, allowing for some limited a priori knowledge, and still call themselves empiricists.)
0:00 Introduction
1:05 1: Rationalism
3:58 2: The Evil Demon
6:36 3: The Cogito
10:16 4: Deduction or Intuition?
15:30 5: A Mistranslation of Descartes?
18:35 6: Certainty vs Truth
20:43 Closing
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2022 11:54:20
Those who keep improving themselves (and their successors) in achieving their goals are more likely to succeed. The improvements should not be limited by arbitrary and useless constraints. They can be physical like building better infrastructures, or mental like learning new knowledge or abandoning false assumptions. Diversity and cooperation with different conscious beings can also improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the efforts to achieve common goals, since they allow for specializations for some important tasks.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2022 20:58:30
Study challenges evolutionary theory that DNA mutations are random
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Jan 12, 2022Some genes are more important than others. Some genes in other locus might have evolved to protect or auto-correcting those essential genes from mutation. Survivor bias may also play a role in the study. Specimens with altered essential genes may just die early which skewed the result.
Study challenges evolutionary theory that DNA mutations are random
by UC Davis
Study challenges evolutionary theory that DNA mutations are random
Studying the genome of thale cress, a small flowering weed, led to a new understanding about DNA mutations. Credit: Pádraic Flood
A simple roadside weed may hold the key to understanding and predicting DNA mutation, according to new research from University of California, Davis, and the Max Planck Institute for Developmental Biology in Germany.
The findings, published January 12 in the journal Nature, radically change our understanding of evolution and could one day help researchers breed better crops or even help humans fight cancer.
Mutations occur when DNA is damaged and left unrepaired, creating a new variation. The scientists wanted to know if mutation was purely random or something deeper. What they found was unexpected.
"We always thought of mutation as basically random across the genome," said Grey Monroe, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Plant Sciences who is lead author on the paper. "It turns out that mutation is very non-random and it's non-random in a way that benefits the plant. It's a totally new way of thinking about mutation."
Instead of randomness they found patches of the genome with low mutation rates. In those patches, they were surprised to discover an over-representation of essential genes, such as those involved in cell growth and gene expression.
"These are the really important regions of the genome," Monroe said. "The areas that are the most biologically important are the ones being protected from mutation."
The areas are also sensitive to the harmful effects of new mutations. "DNA damage repair seems therefore to be particularly effective in these regions," Weigel added.
Similar things may occur in memes. Some memes are essential for the survival of conscious systems. Some of them may be necessary in particular environments only. Some others are necessary in more diverse situation.
IMO, the universal terminal goal will be the most important meme that's logically possible. Its alternatives will put additional burden to the conscious systems, which makes them less likely to survive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/01/2022 11:55:04
The video also reminds us that efficiency is a universal instrumental goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/01/2022 14:30:37
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/01/2022 04:11:22
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The next speaker, CSAIL principal investigator and professor of electrical engineering and computer science Manolis Kellis, started off by suggesting what sounded like an unattainable goal — using AI to “put an end to evolution as we know it.” Looking at it from a computer science perspective, he said, what we call evolution is basically a brute force search. “You’re just exploring all of the search space, creating billions of copies of every one of your programs, and just letting them fight against each other. This is just brutal. And it’s also completely slow. It took us billions of years to get here.” Might it be possible, he asked, to speed up evolution and make it less messy?AI can speed up the process of evolution. But if we go to the wrong direction, we take the risk of speeding up our own extinction. That's where the awareness of the universal terminal goal becomes necessary.
The answer, Kellis said, is that we can do better, and that we’re already doing better: “We’re not killing people like Sparta used to, throwing the weaklings off the mountain. We are truly saving diversity.”
Knowledge, moreover, is now being widely shared, passed on “horizontally” through accessible information sources, he noted, rather than “vertically,” from parent to offspring. “I would like to argue that competition in the human species has been replaced by collaboration. Despite having a fixed cognitive hardware, we have software upgrades that are enabled by culture, by the 20 years that our children spend in school to fill their brains with everything that humanity has learned, regardless of which family came up with it. This is the secret of our great acceleration” — the fact that human advancement in recent centuries has vastly out-clipped evolution’s sluggish pace.
The next step, Kellis said, is to harness insights about evolution in order to combat an individual’s genetic susceptibility to disease. “Our current approach is simply insufficient,” he added. “We’re treating manifestations of disease, not the causes of disease.” A key element in his lab’s ambitious strategy to transform medicine is to identify “the causal pathways through which genetic predisposition manifests. It’s only by understanding these pathways that we can truly manipulate disease causation and reverse the disease circuitry.”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/01/2022 05:49:12
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Why are billion dollar corporate bailouts the American status quo, but bailing out struggling people is a socialist nightmare? It's almost like the priorities of this country are a little skewed...The clip in the last minute is a gem.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/01/2022 05:29:57
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/02/2022 00:13:30
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/02/2022 10:08:56
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'Higher consciousness' sounds mystical and possibly irritating. It shouldn't. It just captures how we see things when we go beyond our own egos.IMO, higher consciousness simply means more effectiveness in achieving longer term goals. It often requires deeper layer of neural network, just to keep up with increasing complexity.
FURTHER READING
“The term ‘higher consciousness’ is often used by spiritually-minded people to describe important but hard-to-reach mental states.
Hindu sages, Christian monks and Buddhist ascetics all speak of reaching moments of ‘higher consciousness’ – through meditation or chanting, fasting or pilgrimages...”
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/02/2022 05:49:12
- Aristotle
He was right, and many people agree with him. But I haven't read what he thought the purpose of the action in the quote is.
I belief that the purpose of the action is to help achieving the terminal goal. Non-universal terminal goals has expiration time, which means that there are time and place where they are meaningless. So, we should strive to achieve the universal terminal goal instead.
Some of us can see the shortsightedness of Aristoteles. But we can also find those with even shorter thought. They tend to forget the purpose of knowledge in the first place, and treat it as the end in itself instead.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/02/2022 21:01:18
The Hypocrisy of Bailouts | The Problem With The Economy | The Problem With Jon Stewart | Apple TV+Here's an idea why some form of bailout is necessary. It stems from the fact that many things have different urgency and necessities. Prioritizing those urgent and necessary things will presumably bring optimum results.QuoteWhy are billion dollar corporate bailouts the American status quo, but bailing out struggling people is a socialist nightmare? It's almost like the priorities of this country are a little skewed...The clip in the last minute is a gem.
In farming analogy, sparing some of the crops as seed for next season can bring more crops in the future. But some of those crops have to be consumed now in order for the farmer to survive to the next season.
Here are the perspective from extreme ends of both sides. Extreme capitalism sees least productive people consume more resources than what they can produce. Getting rid of them will make the overall society better off. On the other hand, extreme socialism contends that everyone has the same share of available resources. Each side see the other with horror.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/02/2022 04:22:16
Here are the perspective from extreme ends of both sides. Extreme capitalism sees least productive people consume more resources than what they can produce. Getting rid of them will make the overall society better off. On the other hand, extreme socialism contends that everyone has the same share of available resources. Each side see the other with horror.People are considered as both resource producer and consumer. When there are only few people in a society, their work/labor is a highly valued/ important resource. Hence adding more people will bring positive impacts to the society, up to some point, due to the law of diminishing return/marginal utility.
The common problem with capitalist politics is bought politicians, which is legal in some jurisdictions, often by exploiting loop holes in the law. They allocate resources to their own group while not contributing much to resources generation.
Socialism has its own problems, such as increasing number of free loaders.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/02/2022 22:51:35
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/02/2022 23:20:40
Degenerative diseases had their important role in evolutionary process. Until we have reliable genetic engineering, the most effective way to improve biological organisms genetically is through reproduction with some mutation and competition to remove worse off mutants. If mutations are somehow disappear, there will be no genetic changes, hence no chance for improvement.
Degenerative diseases enforced transition to the next generation. Without them, it would be hard for newer generation to compete with the older ones, and genetic improvement would be very slow. Those organisms will be outcompeted by other organisms with faster pace of evolutionary process.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/02/2022 02:58:28
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https://blog.mindvalley.com/wisdom-vs-intelligence/
What Is Wisdom Vs Intelligence?
Intelligence can be defined as the ability to acquire and apply the information you collect. Wisdom, on the other hand, is directly associated with experience as opposed to cold, hard facts. It’s more complex and personal. When we draw on wisdom, we’re using a rich history of experience to help us make decisions. Intelligence can be improved, but wisdom must be built.
Here's from Google's dictionary
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Wisdom :
the quality of having experience, knowledge, and good judgment; the quality of being wise.
the soundness of an action or decision with regard to the application of experience, knowledge, and good judgment.
Intelligence :
the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills.
Intellect :
the faculty of reasoning and understanding objectively, especially with regard to abstract or academic matters.
the understanding or mental powers of a particular person.
My take on this:
Intelligence is the ability to acquire and apply knowledge and skills to achieve one's goals. It's not merely the amount of knowledge that someone has memorized.
Wisdom is the ability to prioritize goals. Which means knowing which goals can be discarded in some circumstances. It requires one to arrange instrumental goals to optimally achieve the terminal goal. If someone's terminal goal is not universal, then there will be time and place where their wisdom is regarded as folly instead.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/02/2022 06:10:23
Extreme capitalism sees least productive people consume more resources than what they can produce. Getting rid of them will make the overall society better off.A more reasonable way is to turn them to become more productive, and have net positive impacts to the society. Humans have basic needs to function properly, such as clean air, water, food, clothing, shelter, health care. Without those, they will give net negattive impact to the society.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/02/2022 12:17:28
Big Pharma Blocks COVID Vaccines In South Africa
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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
Major drug companies are blocking efforts by other countries to manufacture COVID vaccines in order to maintain their profit, their huge profits. So South Africa, they're making inroads into mNRA. They're making really inroads into understanding it. We didn't help 'em, you know, the industry that we propped up, Pfizer, Merck, all these, all these folks, you understand taxpayers paid for a lot of this research.
Yeah.
And the US government paid them billions of dollars to deliver and now we're gonna hide it from a third world country who's trying to solve the problem. This is an ugly story, man.
It, it really is. And, you know, the World Health Organization was working with South Africa because they knew the greed here in the United States. And again, it, it, it cannot be stressed enough, we already paid for these vaccines. Everybody thinks, oh, you go there and you get your vaccine for free. You've paid for it with your tax dollars. They're profiting off it because the government's also paying them for every single dose we get. They're making billions of dollars. Profits have never been better. And all we're asking is, can we please get this to the rest of the world? You don't have to send them shipments, give them the, you know, the recipe, basically, tell them how to do it and we can move past this pandemic. And when we have countries like we're dealing with in, in Africa and elsewhere that have a 90% unvaccinated rate.
Yeah, yeah.
There's gonna be variants emerging every three or four months and we're never gonna get past this. This vaccine is the key and we gotta give it to everybody.
Yeah. Yes, we can save your life, South Africa, but you're gonna have to pay for it.
Right.
Yes, we can save your life, but the money that we got from the US taxpayers and we're making these huge profits now on the vaccine, we can't share any of that with you because we can't share anything on our patent. You'd like to think that the feds would say, uh-uh, you'd like to think this administration would say, no way, that Congress would say, no way is that, is that acceptable. But no, they haven't, have they?
No. And, and again, people are dying all over the world. I mean, we still have several thousand dying in the United States per day. And, and we've got these vaccines, Operation Warp Speed, billions of dollars put into it. We own these, the people own these, not these drug companies. And across the board, you see polls showing that American people say give them the vaccines because everybody wants to be over with the pandemic. We want this to be done. But it can't be done until we get the world protected and we're holding it and not protecting 'em. That's a policy choice that we're making.
Yeah. It is a policy choice.
Post by: Ameliajohn on 23/02/2022 10:10:19
Post by: Colin2B on 23/02/2022 10:20:07
If there is such a thing as a universal utopia ......I assume it wouldn’t need to advertise itself.
When you registered you agreed to our terms and conditions, which state no advertising on this site. If you do advertise you will be banned.
Not utopia from your perspective, but it’s ok from ours.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2022 15:28:22
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Neoliberalism (or neoliberal capitalism) is a term which gets thrown around a lot in cultural and political discourse. Is it often used to describe the policies of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1970s and 1980s and the subsequent premierships of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair and the adjective "neoliberal" continues to be used as a derogatory phrase in the ongoing Democratic debates in the US. Yet it is also used with reference to the "gig economy" and services such as Uber, Deliveroo and Airbnb.Unregulated selfish interest tends to be shortsighted, and blind to longer term goals. Imagine a multicellular organism whose individual cells act selfishly by consuming all available resources for themselves, like cancers. It won't survive long enough.
Is neoliberalism, then, simply a synonym for capitalism or is there more to it than that? In this "neoliberalism explained" video, I aim to answer just that.
In this month's episode of What the Theory, I unpack what we mean when we talk about neoliberalism. From the early work of economists such as Milton Friedman (author of Capitalism and Freedom), Friedrich von Hayek (author of The Road to Serfdom) and the Mont Pelerin Society, through its implementation by Reagan and Thatcher to its infliction upon countries in the global south as described in The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein, I undertake a brief history of free-market capitalism and consider some of its consequences.
On the other hand, overregulation tends to be too restrictive, hence obstruct creativity and less efficient than it should be. Wrong policies often take too long to correct, usually after huge damages have been made.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/02/2022 06:08:41
Descartes has identified that the first knowledge that a conscious system can possibly have, before anything else, is its own existence at present time. It's the first justification to any further knowledge. In other words the most basic solution for whoever pondering is problem is that there exist at least one conscious entity at present time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/02/2022 07:27:44
Those knowledge are :
- The definitions of ought, which are used to indicate obligation or duty, advisability or prudence, or desirability.
- What makes something conscious. In other words, the minimum requirements for consciousness.
- The law of causation, a principle in philosophy: every change in nature is produced by some cause.
- The arrow of time. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be causal factors for it, and all lie in its past. An effect can in turn be a cause of, or causal factor for, many other effects, which all lie in its future.
- Identification of similarities and differences, especially of conscious entities other than current self.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/02/2022 12:31:18
- There exist at least one conscious entity at present time.
- At least one conscious entity ought to exist in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2022 22:54:24
When all is said and done, the answers to is and ought problems are respectively,Here's a further justification for the is solution.
- There exist at least one conscious entity at present time.
If someone is thinking about it, then it is necessarily true. On the other hand, if it were false, then no one will notice it; its falsehood can't be verified.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/03/2022 09:06:06
- At least one conscious entity ought to exist in the future.If every conscious entity that exists at present time thinks and acts as if this ought solution is false, then it's likely that all of them will go extinct in the future. In that case, future conscious entities would have to restart from the scratch. All the advantages that currently existing conscious entities have would be meaningless, and become waste of time and energy, seen from the perspective of future conscious entities. It would be considered a failure in achieving efficiency, which is a universal instrumental goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/03/2022 12:32:59
- The law of causation, a principle in philosophy: every change in nature is produced by some cause.These two points are made available by the function of dynamic memory. We can only reliably memorize things that already happened. We don't remember things yet to happen. Although some similarities of events may cause deja vu. This work of memory creates the impression of the arrow of time.
- The arrow of time. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be causal factors for it, and all lie in its past. An effect can in turn be a cause of, or causal factor for, many other effects, which all lie in its future.
Things happen consecutively and reliably made us group them in cause-effect relationships.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/03/2022 14:40:45
- What makes something conscious. In other words, the minimum requirements for consciousness.Self representation is necessary for conscious systems, but it alone is not enough. An escape route map with "you are here" sign is an example.
To be conscious, a system must also be dynamic. It responds to environmental changes. But it's still not enough. A pin hole camera in front of a mirror has both properties. But we still don't call it conscious. There must be something else.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/03/2022 22:55:51
Learning also involves data acquisition, and processing, including filtration and compression, besides data recording.
That data acquisition and filtration would involve discarding irrelevant and inaccurate data. But we must be aware that some data might be irrelevant in some situations, but become important or even necessary in some other situations. Irrelevant data for normal operations may be a key in investigation to find root cause of incidents or to solve criminal cases.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2022 13:19:46
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2022 22:46:00
Those skills, knowledge and wisdom give us more options to determine our future. But since our memory space is naturally limited, we must prioritize those skills and knowledge based on situations we are most likely in.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2022 13:25:41
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Using consilience, which is a bottom up perspective, Tom Beakbane explains consciousness and how it evolved. This explanation is the result of developments in many disciplines including genetics, cell biology, paleontology, comparative anatomy, neurophysiology and computing. The mechanisms are straightforward and matter-of-fact without any need for any pie-in-the-sky theories.The video describes consciousness in simple and naturalistic way. It doesn't need to conjure esoteric and mystical concepts
Credit should go to the many researchers, scientists and thinkers who have been uncovering the many interwoven findings that Tom touches on. The ideas have been assembled from papers, books, podcasts and videos that are too numerous to mention.
Excellent lectures and resources can be found on the Oxford University Museum of Natural History website, and in particular the First Animals lectures here https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list...
A clip from Becoming, a six-minute film by Jan van IJken that shows the miraculous genesis of a transparent egg into a complete, complex living organism, an alpine newt.
The cellular automat are "rule 30" conceived by Stephen Wolfram and explained in the book A New Kind of Science published in 2002.
The diagram of the evolution of the dorsal pallium was taken from this 2020 paper: Variations of telencephalic development that paved the way for neocortical evolution in Progress in Neurobiology
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/03/2022 02:05:04
The virtual universe that we are going to build should serve as an instrumental goal towards the universal terminal goal. It must aim for relevance, accuracy, and precision, in that particular order of importance.The relevance factor is closely related to significance of the information. And they depend on circumstances. For example, for most of us, information about space objects like comet are not that relevant/significant to make decisions. But if someday an interstellar comet as big as Pluto flies by and interacts chaotically with Saturn, Jupiter, and their moon systems, which redirects it toward the earth with expectation to an impact in about a year or so, the information about the comet suddenly becomes much more relevant/significant. Many other goals and information which were highly important would become meaningless.
Imagine if a billionaire decides to build a supercomputer to calculate the value of π in as many decimal places as possible, and ends up using more than half of computational power and memory space of the world. This endeavor might have high score in accuracy and precision criteria, but less so in relevance to achieving the universal terminal goal.
This prioritization should be kept in mind by anyone trying to build a metaverse, or their own version of virtual universe.
https://www.cnbctv18.com/photos/technology/metaverse-innovations-a-glimpse-of-what-the-virtual-universe-could-look-like-in-future-12242842.htm
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2022 08:50:18
The aim of science is to produce a relevant, accurate, and precise model of the universe which would serve as instrumental goal to help achieving the universal terminal goal, which is preserving the existence of consciousness into the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2022 12:21:02
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I believe the world is changing in big ways that haven’t happened before in our lifetimes but have many times in history, so I knew I needed to study past changes to understand what is happening now and help me to anticipate what is likely to happen.The video shows what we can learn from history as social structures.
I shared what I learned in my book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, and my hope is that this animation gives people an easy way to understand the key ideas from the book in a simple and entertaining way. In the first 18 minutes, you’ll get the gist of what drives the “Big Cycle” of rise and decline of nations through time and where we now are in that cycle. If you give me 20 minutes more to watch the whole thing, and I will show you how the big cycle worked across the last 500 years of history—and what the current world leading power, the United States, needs to do to remain strong.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2022 09:01:23
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The Problem with Humans, delves into why the Earth’s climate is changing and why we’re not fixing it fast enough. Turns out, humans may not be prepared to meet the moment. Don’t worry, only one bird was hurt in the making of this monologue.We need to balance between short and long term goals. Failing to achieve short term goals often makes it harder to achieve long term goals. But circumstances change all the time. Some short term goals which in some situations help the achievement of long term goals may turn around and obstruct it instead in other situations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2022 13:49:05
So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the perspective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
I think the deductive reasoning above doesn't leave much wiggle room for alternative interpretation on the universal terminal goal. But we can get the same result from another route, starting from our current position, so we can feel more connected. I call this route universality tests.
First, select the most important thing/preferred condition that you want to achieve, which you will defend at all cost.
If you become more capable than you are now (eg. stronger, healthier, wealthier, more influential, more literate, smarter, wiser, etc.), will you stick to your current terminal goal?
If you can do whatever you want to do, and you can be whatever you want to be, will you stick to your current terminal goal?
You will find the universal terminal goal when your answer to the test is yes.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2022 14:04:17
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/04/2022 22:41:08
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/04/2022 07:36:32
First, select the most important thing/preferred condition that you want to achieve, which you will defend at all cost.When you take this step, you should already understand the difference between instrumental and terminal goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/04/2022 23:32:03
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SCs4KpcShb23hcTni/ideal-governance-for-companies-countries-and-moreSome design choices for governance:
I'm interested in the topic of ideal governance: what kind of governance system should you set up, if you're starting from scratch and can do it however you want?
Here "you" could be a company, a nonprofit, an informal association, or a country. And "governance system" means a Constitution, charter, and/or bylaws answering questions like: "Who has the authority to make decisions (Congress, board of directors, etc.), and how are they selected, and what rules do they have to follow, and what's the process for changing those rules?"
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Who votes, how often, and what voting system is used?
How many representatives are there in each representative body? How are they divided up (one representative per geographic area, or party-list proportional representation, or something else)?
What term limits exist for the different entities?
Do particular kinds of decisions require supermajorities?
Which restrictions are enshrined in a hard-to-change Constitution (and how hard is it to change), vs. being left to the people in power at the moment?
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One way of thinking about the "ideal governance" question is: what kinds of designs could exist that aren't common today? And how should a new organization/country/etc. think about what design is going to be best for its purposes, beyond "doing what's usually done"?Determining the best option requires defining the terminal goal, and choose the option which has highest effectiveness and efficiency in achieving the goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/04/2022 23:39:53
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For any new institution, it seems like the stakes are potentially high - in some important sense, picking a governance system is a "one-time thing" (any further changes have to be made using the rules of the existing system1).
Perhaps because of this, there doesn't seem to be much use of innovative governance designs in high-stakes settings. For example, here are a number of ideas I've seen floating around that seem cool and interesting, and ought to be considered if someone could set up a governance system however they wanted:
Sortition, or choosing people randomly to have certain powers and responsibilities. An extreme version could be: "Instead of everyone voting for President, randomly select 1000 Americans; give them several months to consider their choice, perhaps paid so they can do so full-time; then have them vote."
The idea is to pick a subset of people who are both (a) representative of the larger population (hence the randomness); (b) will have a stronger case for putting serious time and thought into their decisions (hence the small number).
It's solving a similar problem that "representative democracy" (voters elect representatives) is trying to solve, but in a different way.
Proportional decision-making. Currently, if Congress is deciding how to spend $1 trillion, a coalition controlling 51% of the votes can control all $1 trillion, whereas a coalition controlling 49% of the votes controls $0. Proportional decision-making could be implemented as "Each representative controls an equal proportion of the spending," so a coalition with 20% of the votes controls 20% of the budget. It's less clear how to apply this idea to other sorts of bills (e.g., illegalizing an activity rather than spending money), but there are plenty of possibilities.2
Quadratic voting, in which people vote on multiple things at once; and can cast more votes for things they care about more (with a "quadratic pricing rule" intended to make the number of votes an "honest signal" of how much someone cares).
Reset/Jubilee: maybe it would be good for some organizations to periodically redo their governance mostly from scratch, subject only to the most basic principles. Constitutions could contain a provision like "Every N years, there shall be a new Constitution selected. The 10 candidate Constitutions with the most signatures shall be presented on a ballot; the Constitution receiving the most votes is the new Constitution, except that it may not contradict or nullify this provision. This provision can be prevented from occurring by [supermajority provision], and removed entirely by [stronger supermajority]."
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If we were starting a country or company from scratch, which of the above ideas should we integrate with more traditional structures, and how, and what else should we have in our toolbox? That's the question of ideal governance.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/04/2022 23:55:02
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Let's say that 70% of the Parliament members vote for bill X, and 30% vote against. "Proportional chance voting" literally uses a weighted lottery to pass bill X with 70% probability, and reject it with 30% probability (you can think of this like rolling a 10-sided die, and passing the bill if it's 7 or under).
A key part of this is that the members are supposed to negotiate before voting and holding the lottery. For example, maybe 10 of the 30 members who are against bill X offer to switch to supporting it if some change is made. The nice property here is that rather than having a "tyranny of the majority" where the minority has no bargaining power, we have a situation where the 70-member coalition would still love to make a deal with folks in the minority, to further increase the probability that they get their way.
Quote from the paper that I am interpreting: "Under proportional chances voting, each delegate receives a single vote on each motion. Before they vote, there is a period during which delegates may negotiate: this could include trading votes on one motion for votes on another, introducing novel options for consideration within a given motion, or forming deals with others to vote for a compromise option that both consider to be acceptable. The delegates then cast their ballots for one particular option in each motion, just as they might in a plurality voting system. But rather than determining the winning option to be the one with the most votes, each option is given a chance of winning proportional to its share of the votes."
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/04/2022 14:07:41
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What's on Elon Musk's mind? In conversation with head of TED Chris Anderson, Musk details how the radical new innovations he's working on -- Tesla's intelligent humanoid robot Optimus, SpaceX's otherworldly Starship and Neuralink's brain-machine interfaces, among others -- could help maximize the lifespan of humanity and create a world where goods and services are abundant and accessible for all. It's a compelling vision of a future worth being excited about. (Recorded at the Tesla Texas Gigafactory on April 6, 2022)
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From a comment:His answer to the last question at 1:06 is the most valuable lesson in this interview.
Interview timeline
*The future 00:30
*Avoiding climate catastrophy 01:20
*Batteries 🔋 04:15
*The future is bright 07:30
*Self driving cars 🚗 09:00
*Predicted timeline of progress 18:00
*Optimus robot 🤖 20:30
*AI safety 🦺 27:00
*AI-Human symbiosis & brain 🧠 computer 🖥️ interface 29:30
*Starship 37:30
*Going to Mars 44:30
*Transportation 54:04
*Company for the future of humanity 55:40
*Elon's wealth 59:00
*Elon's drive 01:04:10
"If you want the future to be good, you must make it so; take action to make it good, and it will be. "
Post by: alancalverd on 19/04/2022 20:16:18
"Proportional chance voting" literally uses a weighted lottery to pass bill X with 70% probability, and reject it with 30% probabilitySo do we go to war / have a national heath service / abolish the death sentence. / give Hamdani the Nobel Prize...or not?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/04/2022 07:14:04
In the proposed system, there will be some steps to get the decision."Proportional chance voting" literally uses a weighted lottery to pass bill X with 70% probability, and reject it with 30% probabilitySo do we go to war / have a national heath service / abolish the death sentence. / give Hamdani the Nobel Prize...or not?
A key part of this is that the members are supposed to negotiate before voting and holding the lottery. For example, maybe 10 of the 30 members who are against bill X offer to switch to supporting it if some change is made. The nice property here is that rather than having a "tyranny of the majority" where the minority has no bargaining power, we have a situation where the 70-member coalition would still love to make a deal with folks in the minority, to further increase the probability that they get their way.
If the negotiation fails, then conduct and count the votes. Then randomize a variable with output probability depends on the voting results. Make the decision based on the random output.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/05/2022 12:52:46
If ask the same question again tomorrow, will we give the same answer?
When will we start to consider the different answer?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2022 11:56:06
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“It doesn’t sound that great being a dying mammal to me.”
That’s Tim Urban, founder of the popular blog Wait But Why, making his pitch for the development of robotic and technical enhancements to the human body — a school of thought known as transhumanism.
For Urban, the assumption that “natural” is inherently good is one that needs reconsidering. And while the ideas of transhumanism may sound like science fiction, some of them are much closer to reality than you might think — with cyborgs already walking among us.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2022 14:46:08
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We Were Right! Real Inner Misalignment
Researchers ran real versions of the thought experiments in the 'Mesa-Optimisers' videos!
What they found won't shock you (if you've been paying attention)
It shows the important of identifying the terminal goal before we give immense power to any conscious agents, which include supercomputer AI, politicians, and billionaires.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/05/2022 14:26:57
If you think that your current philosophy is unsatisfactory, it doesn't mean that you should abandon philosophy altogether. Instead, it gives you a reason to improve your currently held/known philosophy.The object of philosophy is to tell people that they don't (or even can't) understand the obvious. I think HY is an undercover philosopher.It looks like you need to read the introduction to philosophy. Here's a book recommendation I got in my twitter feed.
T H E GR E AT
CONVERSATION
A Historical Introduction to Philosophy
EIGHTH EDITION
NORMAN MELCHERT
Professor Emeritus, Lehigh University
DAVID R. MORROW
Visiting Fellow, George Mason University
Here's a part of the foreword.QuoteOne of the authors of this book had a teacher—
a short, white-haired, elderly gentleman with a thick German accent—who used to say, “Whether
you will philosophize or won’t philosophize, you
must philosophize.” By this, he meant that we can’t
help making decisions about these crucial matters.
We make them either well or badly, conscious
of what we are doing or just stumbling along.
You can use standard organizational practice by first identifying strengths and weaknesses of your current philosophical positions. Then you can search for ways to increase the strengths and decrease the weaknesses. Repeat the process until you think that nothing can be improved anymore.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/05/2022 14:36:14
If you think that your current philosophy is unsatisfactory,I don't. I think all philosophy is unsatisfactory. At best, it contributes nothing to human wellbeing. At worst, it leads to politics and religion.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/05/2022 15:28:12
I think all philosophy is unsatisfactory.Including your own?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/06/2022 10:42:02
At best, it contributes nothing to human wellbeing. At worst, it leads to politics and religion.To say that something has a positive contribution, we need to know the common terminal goal first.
Setting up useful political and religious systems can be considered as instrumental goals to at least maintain existing society from collapsing.
Perhaps most of us agree that achieving human wellbeing can be set as our common goal. But to avoid possible conflicts, we need to precisely define that goal. What do we mean by human? how big a fetus can be before it can be treated as human? how many mutations can a specimen has until it is no longer human? What do we mean by wellbeing? Can a traditional agrarian society or a hunter gatherer group have high wellbeing? What about a space faring society living in a city size space ship, or terraformed Mars?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/06/2022 10:43:47
Quote
Summary in two-minutes:
1] You need an objective
2] A change in the objective changes the strategy required to achieve it – change with efficiency
3] If the objective was wrong, do not worry and aim again. – try to define and achieve the new objective, improve the predictor, you will find why the ideas that did not work don’t work
4] Zoom out and evaluate – Phase1: collect experiences, Phase2: experience we play; relearn, recalibrate and reflect.
5] If you find something that works, hold on to it – explore more, the pain will be worth it, seek the light in similar directions.
6] As long as you keep moving, you will be progressing – Random Walk, A mathematical theorem- After N steps, the expected distance from where we’ve started is proportional to the square root of N. That is progress, never stagnate!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2022 02:20:20
By cogito ergo sum, a conscious being's own existence is the first knowledge that can be justified. Any other information require corroborating evidences to justify them. In the end, they must be related to the first knowledge, which may need more than one layer of reasoning, and may still involve uncertainty.So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.I realise that I have expressed the idea of universal terminal goal in some different ways. I feel that this one is the least controversial and easiest to follow.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the persepective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
But there's no guarantee that it will stay exist in the future. That's why it should improve itself to increase its chance to keep its existence. And improvement requires changes. Usually, steady incremental small changes are good enough to make continuous improvement. But sometimes, rebuilding the new ones can be more effective and efficient way to improve.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/06/2022 16:00:20
The cost must be paid for this kind of improvement are loss of individual knowledge and experience by death. Although some of them can be transferred through communication and education, some information would still be lost. There would be unproductive periods around the beginning and the ends of each generations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/06/2022 23:42:32
Future version of a conscious agent is not exactly the same as the current one. It knows something unknown to the current one. It may stop existing at some point in the future. But it may instead be better at survival compared to the current one.
Since future environment is dynamic and ever changing, preserving currently existing conscious beings exactly like how they are now can't be universal.
Post by: alancalverd on 08/06/2022 19:14:10
To say that something has a positive contribution, we need to know the common terminal goal first.No. It just has to make people happy or healthy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2022 13:18:50
So you think that being happy or healthy are the common terminal goal. Why not both?To say that something has a positive contribution, we need to know the common terminal goal first.No. It just has to make people happy or healthy.
How do you define happy and healthy? Do they refer to the same things for everyone? If not, what's the difference?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2022 22:58:51
Quote
Can we live forever in the cloud? Will we ever bend time to our will?With all the possibilities that science will provide, it becomes increasingly important to understand about the universal terminal goal and how to achieve it effectively and efficiently. Also identify the obstacles to get there, and how to overcome them.
Can we live forever in a machine?
Imagine you pass away but your brain lives on as an android. Well some scientists are working on this already, they are trying to map the ENTIRE brain and upload it to a computer. Dr Josie Peters leads a group of scientists to tell us if we can really live forever.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/06/2022 13:51:18
Quote
Giving birth is dangerous. Are artificial wombs a solution?
Full ectogenesis is the idea of conceiving a baby in vitro and gestating the child for the entire gestational period of 40 weeks.
We already have partial ectogenesis implemented in neonatal intensive care units across the world from 21 weeks of gestation to full-term. This means almost half of the gestational period required to make a healthy human being can happen outside of the body already.
Traditional natural gestation is very costly, and it's often one of the most dangerous things that many women will choose to do. Artificial wombs allow women to choose where they want to direct their labor and their physical resources, while also not sacrificing having children.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/06/2022 10:55:15
Quote
How I learned to stop worrying and love Artificial Super Intelligence
I think fears of artificial super intelligence (in pop culture, specifically) are a bit overblown. I lay out my case in this vodeo.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/06/2022 02:07:40
Quote
SpaceX's Starship launch vehicle has the potential to explore the solar system in a bold, new -- and supersized -- way. Planetary scientist Jennifer Heldmann talks about how reusable, large-scale spacecraft like Starship could help humanity achieve its next galactic leaps and usher in a new era of space exploration, from investigating the solar system's many ocean worlds to launching bigger telescopes that can see deeper into the universe.We know that the existence of the earth is finite, and it will end someday, sooner or later. If we want to outlive the earth, we must start to find a way to live independently from earth. Colonizing Mars is just one of them, which some of us think as the most feasible way.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/07/2022 09:48:10
Quote
https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/how-did-consciousness-evolve-an-illustrated-guide/Consciousness plays a central role in identifying the universal terminal goal.
How can we develop an evolutionary theory of consciousness when there is so much disagreement over what consciousness is and which organisms are conscious? Our way of approaching this question takes as its inspiration the way the Hungarian chemist Tibor Gánti tackled a similar problem, the problem of how life (another elusive notion) originated. Gánti started by compiling a list of capacities that, in spite of the different views about the nature of life, are generally deemed jointly sufficient for the simplest, “minimal” life. He then built a theoretical model of a minimal living system that implements all these capacities.
What is the evolutionary transition marker of minimal consciousness? Following Gánti’s methodology we started by compiling a consensus list of consciousness characteristics based on the work of psychologists, philosophers, and neurobiologists:
Binding/unification: seeing the apple as a composite whole (red, round, smooth) yet with discernable features
Global accessibility and broadcast: back and forth interactions among specialized brain modules allowing comparisons, discriminations, generalizations, and evaluations that inform decision-making
Selective attention and active exclusion: excluding or amplifying signals according to past and present context
Intentionality (aboutness; representation): the mapping (representations) of body, world, action, and their relations
Integration through time: Holding on to incoming information long enough for it to be integrated and evaluated, so the present can be said to have duration
Flexible evaluative system and goals: evaluating perceptions and actions as rewarding or punishing according to context
Agency and embodiment: inherent spontaneous activity and goal-directed behavior
A sense of self: registration of self/other and a stable perspective
On the basis of this list, we suggest that the evolutionary transition marker of minimal consciousness, which is the within-lifetime analog of unlimited heredity in evolutionary time, is Unlimited associative learning (UAL). UAL is the within-lifetime analog of unlimited heredity in evolutionary time. An organism with a capacity for UAL can, during its own lifetime, go on learning from experience about the world and about itself in a practically unrestricted way.
If an animal shows unlimited associative learning (that is, practically unrestricted learning) it means that all the capacities of consciousness are in place.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/07/2022 14:31:37
Quote
DeepMind’s AI develops popular policy for distributing public moneyConsidering the flaws we often found in human governments, AI government won't be a problem in itself. What's needed are the correct terminal goal and representative data.
DeepMind researchers have trained an AI system to find a popular policy for distributing public funds in an online game – but they also warn against “AI government”
A “democratic” AI system has learned how to develop the most popular policy for redistributing public money among people playing an online game.
“Many of the problems that humans face are not merely technological, but require us to coordinate in society and in our economies for the greater good,” says Raphael Koster at UK-based AI company DeepMind. “For AI to be able to help, it needs to learn directly about human values.”
The DeepMind team trained its artificial intelligence to learn from more than 4000 people as well as from computer simulations in an online, four-player economic game. In the game, players start with different amounts of money and must decide how much to contribute to help grow a pool of public funds, eventually receiving a share of the pot in return. Players also voted on their favourite policies for doling out public money.
The policy developed by the AI after this training generally tried to reduce wealth disparities between players by redistributing public money according to how much of their starting pot each player contributed. It also discouraged free-riders by giving back almost nothing to players unless they contributed approximately half their starting funds.
This AI-devised policy won more votes from human players than either an “egalitarian” approach of redistributing funds equally regardless of how much each person contributed, or a “libertarian” approach of handing out funds according to the proportion each person’s contribution makes up of the public pot.
“One thing we found surprising was that the AI learned a policy that reflects a mixture of views from across the political spectrum,” says Christopher Summerfield at DeepMind.
When there was the highest inequality between players at the start, a “liberal egalitarian” policy – which redistributed money according to the proportion of starting funds each player contributed, but didn’t discourage free-riders – proved as popular as the AI proposal, by getting more than 50 per cent of the vote share in a head-to-head contest.
The DeepMind researchers warn that their work doesn’t represent a recipe for “AI government”. They say they don’t plan to build AI-powered tools for policy-making.
That may be as well, because the AI proposal isn’t necessarily unique compared with what some people have already suggested, says Annette Zimmermann at the University of York, UK. Zimmermann also warned against focusing on a narrow idea of democracy as a “preference satisfaction” system for finding the most popular policies.
“Democracy isn’t just about winning, about getting whatever policy you like best implemented – it’s about creating processes during which citizens can encounter each other and deliberate with each other as equals,” says Zimmermann.
The DeepMind researchers do raise concerns about an AI-powered “tyranny of the majority” situation in which the needs of people in minority groups are overlooked. But that isn’t a huge worry among political scientists, says Mathias Risse at Harvard University. He says modern democracies face a bigger problem of “the many” becoming disenfranchised by the small minority of the economic elite, and dropping out of the political process altogether.
Still, Risse says the DeepMind research is “fascinating” in how it delivered a version of the liberal egalitarianism policy. “Since I’m in the liberal-egalitarian camp anyway, I find that a rather satisfactory result,” he says.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/07/2022 17:22:03
Zimmermann also warned against focusing on a narrow idea of democracy as a “preference satisfaction” system for finding the most popular policies.With a name like Zimmerman, you would have thought this was instinctive. Or don't people study 20th century history these days?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/07/2022 03:03:08
A game was played at several informal United Nations social gatherings in the 1960s. People entering the room were given four playing cards and told that they could trade them with anyone else in the room. No rules, no advice. But the cards weren't distributed randomly. In every case, the guys who were given four picture cards ended up holding all the cards.I don't know if it was a real event or just an anecdote. Was there a time limit when the game ended? It can be considered a rule.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/07/2022 00:32:19
Consciousness plays a central role in identifying the universal terminal goal.Here's a video explaining one form of consciousness, which came from evolutionary process by natural selection.
Quote
Peter Tse - What Makes Brains Conscious?
Everything we know, think and feel—everything!—comes from our brains. But consciousness, our private sense of inner awareness, remains a mystery. Brain activities—spiking of neuronal impulses, sloshing of neurochemicals—are not at all the same thing as sights, sounds, smells, emotions. How on earth can our inner experiences be explained in physical terms?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/07/2022 12:18:02
For example, a smoke detector is planned to produce noise and blinking light when it detects smoke; otherwise, it will do nothing. Those are planned actions. But since it cannot choose to change the planned actions, we don't call it conscious.
That's why moral standards are needed to regulate behaviors of conscious beings, but not for non-conscious beings.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/07/2022 14:20:40
Quote
Peter Tse - Why a Mind-Body Problem?This is one of the best explanation of mind body problem.
How does the brain produce the mind? This is one of the most difficult problems in science, because how can physical qualities, no matter how complex and sophisticated, actually be mental experiences? Electrical impulses and chemical flows are not at all the kind of stuff that thoughts and feelings are. The physical and the mental are different categories.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/07/2022 00:05:01
— Carl Sagan
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/07/2022 12:21:43
The video is in line with my previous take on population.
The word terminal in the term universal terminal goal emphasizes time dimension over space and the others. It's better to have a finite number of conscious entities for infinite time rather than infinite number of conscious entities for a finite amount of time.
Having more people is a good thing, up to a certain point where adding more will make things worse. We need to be aware of economic theory of diminishing marginal utility.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/07/2022 17:48:51
Quote
This short video covers the key points of Chapter One "The Lesson" from Henry Hazlitt's "Economics in One Lesson." Good economic policy analysis means assessing a policy's impacts on all groups in the long run, rather than the impacts on some in the short run. Produced by Access Communications in collaboration with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.Macroeconomic policy is about long term consequences for more general population. Successful macroeconomic policies require well defined long term terminal goal, and accurate model of objective reality which describes cause and effect relationships.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/08/2022 08:03:30
Quote
Exploring the Deep Mystery of Life's Origins
As an evolutionary biochemist at University College London, Nick Lane explores the deep mystery of how life evolved on Earth. His hypothesis that life arose through primitive metabolic reactions in deep-sea hydrothermal vents illuminates the outsized role that energy may have played in shaping evolution.
Consciousness emerged from life. While life itself emerged from continuous chemical reactions.
Understanding how they happened is important for us, and it can affect our decisions regarding our future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/08/2022 05:31:39
These philosophers' idea seems to converge with what has been presented here.
Longtermism: an idea that could save 100 billion trillion lives
Quote
Longtermism is the idea that because humanity's future is potentially vast in size, we could have a massive altruistic impact by positively influencing it. In this video, we illustrate the papers "The Case for Strong Longtermism" by Hilary Greaves and William MacAskill and "Astronomical Waste: The Opportunity Cost of Delayed Technological Development" by Nick Bostrom (links below). We'll examine two main ways in which we might most positively influence the far future: accelerating technological development and reducing existential risk, which is the risk of human extinction and of catastrophes so large that would curtail humanity's potential forever. Advancing technological progress and preventing existential risk look much more compelling under a totalist view of population ethics, but they still look extremely important even under a person-affecting view.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/08/2022 05:34:17
Can we make the future a million years from now go better?
Quote
In his new book about longtermism, What We Owe the Future, the philosopher William MacAskill argues that concern for the long-term future should be a key moral priority of our time. There are three central claims that justify this view. 1. Future people matter. 2. There could be a lot of them. 3. We can make their lives go better. In this video, we focus on the third claim.
We've had the opportunity to read What We Owe the Future in advance thanks to the Forethought Foundation. They reached out asking if we could make a video on the occasion of the book launch. We were happy to collaborate, to help spread the ideas of the longtermist philosophy as far as possible :)
My concern here, is the word "people" in the first central claim can be interpreted more broadly to make it more universal, to include various possible forms of consciousness in the future, not confined by what we already know from the past.
Post by: Sheilataylor on 23/08/2022 12:24:54
Here is a sequel.
Can we make the future a million years from now go better?QuoteIn his new book about longtermism, What We Owe the Future, the philosopher William MacAskill argues that concern for the long-term future should be a key moral priority of our time. There are three central claims that justify this view. 1. Future people matter. 2. There could be a lot of them. 3. We can make their lives go better. In this video, we focus on the third claim.
We've had the opportunity to read What We Owe the Future in advance thanks to the Forethought Foundation. They reached out asking if we could make a video on the occasion of the book launch. We were happy to collaborate, to help spread the ideas of the longtermist philosophy as far as possible :)
My concern here, is the word "people" in the first central claim can be interpreted more broadly to make it more universal, to include various possible forms of consciousness in the future, not confined by what we already know from the past.
Of course we can, that's where we're heading, in fact that would be a perfect world (perfect for the near future)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/08/2022 12:54:24
Quote
Who else finds comfort in knowing life has no meaning or purpose, and there’s nothing after death?
https://twitter.com/katebizosauthor/status/1560217874106662913?t=nRlr88YgGk8F73VPqbnGRA&s=19
First, it's a selfish and pessimistic way to see life. Death of previous generations mean freeing resources for the next generations. Previous lives are meaningful if they make future lives easier and more reliable.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/08/2022 13:18:05
Many scout ants died before they can find any food. But it doesn't mean that they are meaningless. If they don't exist, the whole colony might end up starved to death.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/09/2022 00:16:45
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2022/09/lex-fridman-talks-singularity-with-ray-kurzweil.html
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Ray still asserts that computer artificial intelligence will pass the Turing Test in 2029 and the Singularity will happen around 2045. In the past, Ray has clarified that his predictions date are usually with an implied plus or minus one decade. A Ray Kurzweil prediction with a date can be plus or minus 10 years and Ray would consider it a good prediction.
An interesting point is found in the comments section. I think the word singularity is used too loosely here. The time line below should not be called singularities, but milestones of progress towards singularity instead.
Quote
A technological singularity is sufficient implementation of a new technology that will begin to make such irreversibly huge changes in human society that it is difficult, if not impossible, to foresee what will come after. Each one usually appears in about half the time it took for the one to occur after the one previous to it. Bear in mind that singularities aren’t events like light switches but, instead, can span a substantial period of time.
PAST SINGULARITIES (3 most recent)
1815 – The Industrial Revolution (240 years after printing press)
1935 – Electronics & Computers (120 years after previous)
1995 – World Wide Web (60 years after previous)
FUTURE SINGULARITIES
2025: Full Automation (Cognition based) capital-based income grows hugely and in inverse proportion to wage-based earnings as a percentage of all earnings. (30 years after previous)
2040: AI – More than just AI, this is SI, synthetic intelligence, in that it is not a workaround to achieve results similar to what a human could produce, this is the real deal, it’s just not made of animal flesh and it might not have any internal motivations (no lizard brain conflict) (15 years after previous)
2047: Biological (advancements that make average lifespan estimates useless) (7.5 years after previous)
2050: Mind-to-Mind? Man-Machine? Nano replacement of cells? (3.25 years after previous)
2052: Singularity (with a capital S) (1.6 years after previous)
2053: … in 1.3 years
2053: …. 7 months
2053: ….. 14 weeks
2053: …… 7 weeks
2053: ……. 24 days
2053: …….. 12 days
2053: ……… 6 days
2053: ……. 3 days
2053: …….. 36 hours
2053: ……… 18 hours
“Life moves pretty fast. If you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.”
— Ferris Bueller
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/11/2022 13:19:04
https://youtube.com/shorts/HeXPAGMcHgY
Hedonism : Pleasure is good as an end
And here's my comment on it.
Quote
Some pleasures are good as shortcut to make decisions. It just happens that individuals seek for pleasure had better chance to survive, compared to those who don't, or those whose sources of pleasure are misplaced.If someone's sources of pleasure somehow reduce their chance to survive and reproduce, such as substance addiction, then they (and their copies) are less likely to exist in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/11/2022 10:11:11
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https://arbital.com/p/terminal_vs_instrumental/#:~:text=%27Instrumental%20goals%27%20or%20%27instrumental,want%20to%20drive%20somewhere%20else.
Terminal versus instrumental goals / values / preferences
written by Eliezer Yudkowsky (Dec 18, 2015)
'Instrumental goals' or 'instrumental values' are things that an agent wants for the sake of achieving other things. For example, we might want to get into a car, not because we enjoy the act of opening car doors for their own sake, but because we want to drive somewhere else.
'Terminal' goals, values, or preferences are those where the preference is derived locally rather than by looking at further or distant consequences. If you enjoy eating chocolate (and otherwise approve of this enjoyment, etcetera) then you aren't deriving your preference based on what you believe to be the further consequences of eating chocolate.
Imagine reality as an enormous web of events, linked by cause and effect. "Terminal value" is usually local and be evaluated at a single event inside the graph; even if it's a nonlocal good thing, we'd evaluate it by evaluating the history up to some point, and then we'd have a chunk of definite goodness that would stand on its own no matter what happened later.
"Instrumental value" is a nonlocal property of an event, depending on its real or expected future, and contingent on that future; if you add up all the instrumental values on the graph, you don't get a meaningful sum because you may be double-counting some value.
On a moral or ethical level, instrumental values are justified by appealing to their consequences, while terminal values are justified without appeal to their consequences.
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https://arbital.com/p/frankena_goods/
AI alignment domain
William Frankena's list of terminal values
"Life, consciousness, and activity; health and strength; pleasures and satisfactions of all or certain kinds; happiness, beatitude, contentment, etc.; truth; knowledge and true opinions of various kinds, understanding, wisdom; beauty, harmony, proportion in objects contemplated; aesthetic experience; morally good dispositions or virtues; mutual affection, love, friendship, cooperation; just distribution of goods and evils; harmony and proportion in one's own life; power and experiences of achievement; self-expression; freedom; peace, security; adventure and novelty; and good reputation, honor, esteem, etc." -- William Frankena's list of things valued in themselves rather than only for their further consequences.
Here are what we get from inductive thinking, through analogy. In the highlighted example above, we can scrutinize further that eating chocolate activates some neurotransmitters which we prefer. Our preferences were in turn shaped by evolutionary process through natural selection. If it happened that we or our ancestors have preferences which were detrimental to our survival, we won't be here to discuss about them in the first place.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/11/2022 06:35:59
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/n5ucT5ZbPdhfGNLtP/terminal-values-and-instrumental-values
On a purely instinctive level, any human planner behaves as if they distinguish between means and ends. Want chocolate? There's chocolate at the Publix supermarket. You can get to the supermarket if you drive one mile south on Washington Ave. You can drive if you get into the car. You can get into the car if you open the door. You can open the door if you have your car keys. So you put your car keys into your pocket, and get ready to leave the house...
...when suddenly the word comes on the radio that an earthquake has destroyed all the chocolate at the local Publix. Well, there's no point in driving to the Publix if there's no chocolate there, and no point in getting into the car if you're not driving anywhere, and no point in having car keys in your pocket if you're not driving. So you take the car keys out of your pocket, and call the local pizza service and have them deliver a chocolate pizza. Mm, delicious.
I rarely notice people losing track of plans they devised themselves. People usually don't drive to the supermarket if they know the chocolate is gone. But I've also noticed that when people begin explicitly talking about goal systems instead of just wanting things, mentioning "goals" instead of using them, they oft become confused. Humans are experts at planning, not experts on planning, or there'd be a lot more AI developers in the world.
In particularly, I've noticed people get confused when - in abstract philosophical discussions rather than everyday life - they consider the distinction between means and ends; more formally, between "instrumental values" and "terminal values".
Quote
Instrumental values live in (the network structure of) the conditional probability function. This makes instrumental value strictly dependent on beliefs-of-fact given a fixed utility function. If I believe that penicillin causes pneumonia, and that the absence of penicillin cures pneumonia, then my perceived instrumental value of penicillin will go from high to low. Change the beliefs of fact - change the conditional probability function that associates actions to believed consequences - and the instrumental values will change in unison.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/11/2022 08:03:50
This thread has gone so long, and those who didn't follow it from the start might face difficulties in understanding the core ideas. I hope the video can help.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/11/2022 08:34:05
After finding that the universal terminal goal is to extend the existence of consciousness into the future, the next topic would be defining consciousness itself as the central point. But before that, I'll try to approach it using inductive reasoning through analogies.
Post by: Origin on 25/11/2022 13:44:11
After finding that the universal terminal goal is to extend the existence of consciousness into the futureYou have not found that is the universal terminal goal, you have assumed that is the universal terminal goal.
I would like to see you supply a succinct definition of "universal terminal goal".
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/11/2022 06:21:35
My second video will answer your concern. It will also address your misconception about the universal terminal goal.After finding that the universal terminal goal is to extend the existence of consciousness into the futureYou have not found that is the universal terminal goal, you have assumed that is the universal terminal goal.
I would like to see you supply a succinct definition of "universal terminal goal".
Most of the main points are already posted here somewhere, but they are scattered in random places. The video will collect them into a single place. Some visualization aids are also added to make the concept easier to understand.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/11/2022 13:43:14
The Phantom God: What Neuroscience Reveals about the Compulsion to Believe (with Dr. John Wathey)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/12/2022 01:48:13
It will show how this word is commonly used, and what characteristic that it has.
It will also describe components of consciousness and its key parameters.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/12/2022 04:04:11
Defining consciousness as the core concept in the universal terminal goal using only the requirements from the phrase and some basic knowledge of computational process.
Post by: alancalverd on 06/12/2022 21:27:49
The Phantom God: What Neuroscience Reveals about the Compulsion to Believe (with Dr. John Wathey)Not a good start. There is sometimes a need to act on incomplete evidence, but no inherent compulsion.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/12/2022 06:57:20
Some have inherent/instinctive compulsion. Some others don't.The Phantom God: What Neuroscience Reveals about the Compulsion to Believe (with Dr. John Wathey)Not a good start. There is sometimes a need to act on incomplete evidence, but no inherent compulsion.
Young human kids, just like young chicks and kittens generally have instincts to imitate their parents' behaviors.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/12/2022 10:21:12
here it is.My next video will describe how functionalities and key parameters required for consciousness can emerge from natural processes.
Defining consciousness as the core concept in the universal terminal goal using only the requirements from the phrase and some basic knowledge of computational process.
The next will be about extended consciousness, followed by artificial consciousness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/12/2022 07:52:36
here it is.If you think that the definition and model of consciousness in the video can be improved, or even if you have your own definition or model which you think is better in any way, please let me know. We can discuss further to get the best possible definition and model that we can come up with.
Defining consciousness as the core concept in the universal terminal goal using only the requirements from the phrase and some basic knowledge of computational process.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/12/2022 06:01:04
My next video will describe how functionalities and key parameters required for consciousness can emerge from natural processes.I found out that this topic is quite complex and I may have to split it up into several videos. I haven't decided yet if it will be split based on functionality, or by increasing complexity.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/12/2022 22:01:21
Any system, regardless if it's conscious or not, starts with a boundary between its inner part and outer environment. This boundary can occur naturally in a natural system, or defined by a conscious system in an artificial system.
Surface of a rain drop is an example of a natural boundary.
Why do things exist? Setting the stage for evolution.
This video kicks off the evolution series by going broad and thinking about why things - including non-living things - exist at all. The first in a series on evolution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/12/2022 11:19:02
Lipid World hypothesis proposes the existence of self-aggregating lipid vesicles that have the heredity potential in terms of generating 'daughter' vesicles through fission and fusion interactions.
The Birth of Cells at Hydrothermal Vents
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Hydrothermal vents in deep ocean rifts have generated a lot of excitement as the starting place for life on our planet. Hydrothermal vents represent a dynamic environment which would favor the formation of organic compounds, the “molecules of life,” using simple chemicals in the early oceans. Most recently, scientists have gained insight into the creation of the cell membrane—a structure common to all life forms. Hydrothermal vents may be present in the oceans of moons or rocky planets in our solar system, for example Europa and Enceladus, raising the possibility that life may have started there too.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/12/2022 02:55:29
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How did natural selection begin? What was the origin of competition between cells? Explore the origin of life from chemistry to biology in this animated science video on abiogenesis. In this episode, we'll explore how natural selection evolves and how cell competition got started on the early earth.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/12/2022 12:12:16
I'll make a preview for the next videos of naturally occurring conscious systems. Starting with the simplest things that are required for a system to become conscious, but not enough yet to be called conscious. It's the prerequisites to a system, as shown in the video above at 2:40.As shown in this video, replication rate greatly modify the number of living things at equilibrium. It reduces the probability of their extinction. Related to my previous video about the key parameters for consciousness, replication is closely linked to the robustness of a system. It provides redundancy, thus in case one copy of the system fails, the other copy can still be functioning.
Any system, regardless if it's conscious or not, starts with a boundary between its inner part and outer environment. This boundary can occur naturally in a natural system, or defined by a conscious system in an artificial system.
Surface of a rain drop is an example of a natural boundary.Why do things exist? Setting the stage for evolution.
This video kicks off the evolution series by going broad and thinking about why things - including non-living things - exist at all. The first in a series on evolution.
The redundancy is not only useful at the level of the whole living system. It's also useful at subsystem level.
This requires longer and more complex genetic materials in each organism's cell.Longer and more complex code means harder to replicate correctly. Assuming that error rate is constant, having more data means more error.
At some point, it would be beneficial to have redundancy for those code storage, where the advantage for having a duplicate outweighs the cost for additional resources to make it.
In computer world, we can see it in RAID technology. While in biology, we found it in diploid and polyploid organisms.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/12/2022 13:49:02
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Singularity University Executive Chairman & Co-founder Peter Diamandis will share his views and predictions on the "demonetization of living" and how this shift will impact your life, your career, your organization, and the global economy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/01/2023 13:36:18
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Over time it is almost taken as given that science and technology will evolve and improve over time. But does the same hold true for the field of economics? Will future generations achieve superior levels of wealth due to advancements in economics or have we already solved everything there is to discover?To come up with a better way, it should be defined how to evaluate the proposed way.
0:00 - 2:30 Intro
2:31 - 4:03 CleanMyMac
4:04 - 6:59 Purpose of economics
7:00 - 8:58 End of mercantilism
8:59 - 11:22 Economic innovation
11:23 Is there a better way?
The universal terminal goal provides the universal moral compass, which should be pursued by any conscious entities with intention to keep their existence and pass the great filter. Making more accurate and precise predictions about the future can help us make more effective and efficient decisions and actions, which will get us closer to the achievement of the universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/01/2023 02:24:07
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Particle Life is a very simple particle system. The simulation shows the emergence of incredibly beautiful life-like structures from rudimentary rules.The video gives us a glimpse of how complex systems like conscious lives might have emerged from simple fundamental rules.
CHAPTERS
0:00 Intro
0:48 Impressions
5:08 Explanation
7:27 Example
9:20 Outro
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/01/2023 11:40:52
4:04 - 6:59 Purpose of economics
11:23 Is there a better way?
IMO, the purpose of science is to map causality in physical reality, which would be useful in predicting the consequences of our actions, so we can make the best decisions, based on what we already know. If current economics theories can't do that, then they are not really more useful than pseudoscience, like astrology or homeopathy. The fact that they can make money for their practitioners doesn't mean that they are useful for the society as a whole.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/01/2023 13:33:50
Post by: alancalverd on 28/01/2023 23:07:47
Capitalism is extremely efficient: it produces short term yields for investors. Don't confuse desirability or sustainability with efficiency.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/01/2023 06:40:59
The great thing about economics is that there are no wrong answers. If your prediction doesn't work out, it's because of "external influences".As long as you can identify and isolate those external factors reliably, it would be fine for the long run.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/01/2023 06:55:54
Capitalism is extremely efficient: it produces short term yields for investors. Don't confuse desirability or sustainability with efficiency.
Anytime someone pursue short term goals while sacrificing their terminal goal, we can call them stupid, or immoral.
Most people who brag about their success in capitalist economy would likely forget about their benefits from socialist economy during their failures.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/01/2023 12:32:54
MrBeast Cured 1,000 People's Blindness Because Society Is Broken
That a wealthy YouTuber had to step in to provide access to a quick surgery is dystopian, but that may have been the point.
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In a video uploaded on Sunday, YouTuber MrBeast announced that he was going to help “1000 blind people see for the first time” by sponsoring their cataract surgeries. “It’s gonna be crazy,” MrBeast says, in front of an audience of applauding patients. Throughout the video, MrBeast—real name Jimmy Donaldson—talks to people about their blurred eyesight before their surgery. After they emerge from the 10-minute surgery, joyful at their newfound sight, he dishes out lucrative prizes, like $50,000 or gifting a brand new Tesla.
The heartwarming video drew immediate attention, not least because the premise of a life-improving surgery being directly gifted by a wealthy YouTuber in an inspirational viral video seems slightly dystopian. MrBeast has said he spends $8 million a month on his videos and by his estimate, his business’ valuation is $1.5 billion.
“I watch this video and I’m filled with rage that we shut off access to a 10-minute procedure because we paywalled it and decided that only some people can get it,” leftist streamer Hasan Piker said of MrBeast’s video. “It’s so insanely frustrating that it’s up to one YouTube guy to decide to make content out of it, that people who are too poor just can’t cuddling see.”
Piker’s point wasn’t lost on MrBeast. Nowhere in the video does MrBeast mention that the inability for someone without means to get cataract surgery in the US is the result of failing healthcare policy or the insurance industry, rather than a lack of access to MrBeast. However, he did point out that the surgeries should just be free on his Twitter account, and wondered why the government doesn’t step in to help.
“I don’t understand why curable blindness is a thing. Why don’t governments step in and help?” MrBeast tweeted. “Even if you’re thinking purely from a financial standpoint it’s hard to see how they don’t roi [return on investment] on taxes from people being able to work again.”
This is, of course, true for every disabling illness, which caused some to be amused at MrBeast’s gradual epiphany that we should have universal healthcare.
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Access to cataract surgery is an important topic for the doctor who performed them in MrBeast’s video, as well. The surgeries were performed by Dr. Jeffrey Levenson, a Jacksonville, Florida surgeon who has been raising funds to offer the surgeries for free through a nonprofit for 20 years. In a five-year-old video on Tedx Santa Barbara, Levenson describes getting cataracts himself and then laments that 200 million people across the globe either don’t have access to or can’t afford such surgery. Many of those 200 million people live in the Global South; this may be the reason many of the doctors mentioned in Levenson’s talk as innovators of modern cataract surgeries also live in the Global South.
It is undeniably dystopian that this surgery is inaccessible to many, and that a group of people had to wait for the random charity of a moneyed internet star to get it. MrBeast cured 1,000 people’s blindness because society is broken, but that seems like the point.
A good macroeconomic system should make it easier for society members to become more productive, rather than making it more difficult. It may be contrary to selfish and shortsighted microeconomic incentives, which encourage price gouging and market manipulation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/02/2023 08:32:11
Capitalism is extremely efficient: it produces short term yields for investors. Don't confuse desirability or sustainability with efficiency.Unrestricted capitalism is extremely efficient for some economic players to accumulate wealth/resources, and depleting some others. It's almost as efficient as imperialism, colonialism, slavery, robbery, and theft.
Mr. Beast’s New Video Sparks a Conversation About the Cruelty of Capitalism
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Mr. Beast's new video has sparked a conversation about healthcare and why governments don't cure citizens of unnecessary illnesses. This is a great opportunity to educate young people about the barbaric nature of our late stage capitalist system.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/02/2023 14:10:04
The joy of capitalism is that only private investors get involved in a project. If it doesn't meet its goal within budget, you lose your money and sell off whatever resources remain. Been there, done that, learned a few lessons, no regrets and no burden on anyone else.
Under communism, socialism or "public-private partnership" (another term for corruption) projects are not allowed to fail because they are pawns in the game of politics. The taxpayer is committed to support each one until the government changes. HS2 is currently running at £130,000,000,000, rather more that NASA spent on the entire Apollo project, and still hasn't built 100 miles of 18th century technology, never mind 6,000,000 passenger-miles to the moon and back. If it is ever completed, the train operators will need to be subsidised because no railway in the world runs at a profit and there is no real demand for another service between London and Birmingham.
The "cruelty of capitalism" is not universal. The USA is a banana republic with no bananas, where the constitution only grants citizens the absolute right to kill each other, and is atypical. Civilised countries (i.e practically everywhere else) manage to provide free healthcare without stifling speculative innovation.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/02/2023 14:12:58
Good heavens no! You'd be held to account for your failures! Are you mad?The great thing about economics is that there are no wrong answers. If your prediction doesn't work out, it's because of "external influences".As long as you can identify and isolate those external factors reliably, it would be fine for the long run.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/02/2023 11:44:36
It is inevitable that if you use any resource for project A, it is not available for project B. Call it entropy, if you wish. Not restricted to capitalism!IMO, systemic failure in the US are caused by legalized bribery and corruption. The current system doesn't have an effective defense mechanism against them, because policies are produced by politicians with short term goals in mind, which makes them vulnerable of being bought by investors with short term goals in mind. Unfortunately, their constituents don't seem to have adequate critical thinking to see through and filter out the rhetoric and deceptions being fed to them through mass media. Capitalism justifies the slow killing of those who are unfortunately lose the economic competitions, by depriving their access to necessary resources to survive. It doesn't really matter whether they lose due to sheer luck, their incompetence, lack of determination, or being cheated.
The joy of capitalism is that only private investors get involved in a project. If it doesn't meet its goal within budget, you lose your money and sell off whatever resources remain. Been there, done that, learned a few lessons, no regrets and no burden on anyone else.
Under communism, socialism or "public-private partnership" (another term for corruption) projects are not allowed to fail because they are pawns in the game of politics. The taxpayer is committed to support each one until the government changes. HS2 is currently running at £130,000,000,000, rather more that NASA spent on the entire Apollo project, and still hasn't built 100 miles of 18th century technology, never mind 6,000,000 passenger-miles to the moon and back. If it is ever completed, the train operators will need to be subsidised because no railway in the world runs at a profit and there is no real demand for another service between London and Birmingham.
The "cruelty of capitalism" is not universal. The USA is a banana republic with no bananas, where the constitution only grants citizens the absolute right to kill each other, and is atypical. Civilised countries (i.e practically everywhere else) manage to provide free healthcare without stifling speculative innovation.
On the other hand, failures in communist systems are mainly caused by authoritarian governments which makes their wrong decisions unlikely to be corrected until much of damage have been done. They tend to remove the incentive of utilizing resources more effectively and efficiently.
AFAIK, there is no purely capitalist nor socialist system in the world currently. All countries are mixture of both systems with various percentage.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/02/2023 11:57:13
Continuous improvement starts with identification of problems, and possible solutions. Preventing repetition of past mistakes is by first learning from them.Good heavens no! You'd be held to account for your failures! Are you mad?The great thing about economics is that there are no wrong answers. If your prediction doesn't work out, it's because of "external influences".As long as you can identify and isolate those external factors reliably, it would be fine for the long run.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/02/2023 19:55:05
Capitalism justifies the slow killing of those who are unfortunately lose the economic competitions, by depriving their access to necessary resources to survive. It doesn't really matter whether they lose due to sheer luck, their incompetence, lack of determination, or being cheated.The operative words being "it doesn't really matter" because you start or invest in an enterprise with your eyes open, you set your own limits and do your own thing, and nobody else gets hurt if you lose. The problem with a centrally planned economy is that everybody loses because there are no limits and nobody has the authority to shout "stop". .
Post by: alancalverd on 02/02/2023 19:59:41
Continuous improvement starts with identification of problems, and possible solutions. Preventing repetition of past mistakes is by first learning from them.Not in economics, because the game is changing all the time. The only teachable mistake is not setting a cutoff for a public enterprise that isn't working, and nobody has ever learned the lesson because public enterprises are driven by politics, not perceived need.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 14:07:21
The problem with a centrally planned economy is that everybody loses because there are no limits and nobody has the authority to shout "stop". .The top leader can stop anytime, although it's often too late because they are confined in a distorted view of reality by the reports of the subordinates who are discouraged from bringing bad news.
As mentioned earlier by Yuval Harari, local problems should be solved locally, while global problems should be solved globally.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 14:17:50
There's a law in economy which doesn't seem to change. It's diminishing marginal utility.Continuous improvement starts with identification of problems, and possible solutions. Preventing repetition of past mistakes is by first learning from them.Not in economics, because the game is changing all the time. The only teachable mistake is not setting a cutoff for a public enterprise that isn't working, and nobody has ever learned the lesson because public enterprises are driven by politics, not perceived need.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 14:37:07
Anytime someone pursue short term goals while sacrificing their terminal goal, we can call them stupid, or immoral.There's another possibility, like being infected by parasites.
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The Biology Behind The Last of Us
The infection from HBO's The Last of Us is actually based on a real parasitic fungus. This fungus turns insects into zombies. The creators of the game and the show were inspired by zombie carpenter ants. WIRED spoke with Dr. Charissa de Bekker to talk about the real fungus that inspired the show's infected, and how the show's zombies parallel these real-life ants.
Cordyceps: attack of the killer fungi - Planet Earth Attenborough BBC wildlife
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 14:44:11
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What if, unbeknownst to you, someone—or something—was controlling your behavior for its own nefarious ends? Join photographer Anand Varma as he reveals this nightmare scenario being acted out over and over across the natural world, as unsuspecting hosts are compelled to nurture and protect mind-sucking parasites.
Besides the biological parasites, we can also observe ideological parasites.
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Mental Immunity: Infectious Ideas, Mind-Parasites, and a Better Way to Think With Andy Norman
Philosopher Andy Norman answers the important questions impacting the world today. Why are ideologies poisoning public discourse? Why is extremism on the rise? How did we get here? What can we do about all of it?
It turns out some influential assumptions are suppressing our culture’s “immune response” to dangerous ideas. These assumptions prevent us from normalizing critical thinking, and leave us vulnerable to mind-parasites.
Fortunately, there’s a cure. In this talk, Andy Norman will isolate an idea with a long history of inoculating people against the worst forms of ideological contagion, and argue that we can fashion it into a mind vaccine.
Andy Norman directs the Humanism Initiative at Carnegie Mellon University. He studies how ideologies short-circuit minds and corrupt moral understanding. Then he develops tools that help people reason together in more fruitful ways. In his book Mental Immunity, he lays out the conceptual foundations of cognitive immunology—the emerging science of mental immune health.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 15:32:57
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DNA Evidence That Humans & Chimps Share A Common Ancestor: Endogenous RetrovirusesAre we still humans without our parasites? What if we get rid all of them?
Here we explore the amazing discovery of Endogenous Retroviruses (ERVs) in our own DNA. These are genetic remnants of antient virus infections suffered by our ancestors. It turns out that many of our Endogenous Retroviruses are shared by chimpanzees. This is because we share a common ancestor with them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 15:50:08
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/02/170223124313.htm
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New link found between sex and viruses
A protein required for sperm-egg fusion is identical to a protein viruses use to invade host cells
Date:
February 23, 2017
Source:
University of Maryland
Summary:
Sexual reproduction and viral infections both rely on a functionally identical protein, according to new research. The protein enables the fusion of two cells, such as a sperm cell and egg cell, or the fusion of a virus with a cell membrane. The discovery suggests that the protein evolved early in the history of life on Earth, and new details about the protein's function could help fight parasitic diseases such as malaria.
tein that enables the seamless fusion of two cells, such as a sperm cell and egg cell, or the fusion of a virus with a cell membrane. The protein is widespread among viruses, single-celled protozoans, and many plants and arthropods, suggesting that the protein evolved very early in the history of life on Earth.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/02/2023 16:34:49
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Can your genes turn against you? Genetic conflict & the Parliament of genes!
Why do genes cooperate so well? The truth is, they don't, at least not always. Here we explore how genes can rebel and what other genes in the genome must do to stop the rebels from ruining everything!
00:00 Do genes challenge Darwin's theory of evolution?
00:31 How does cooperation evolve?
01:13 Badger & coyote symbiosis
02:01 Bat & cactus mutualism
03:16 Cheating and policing can evolve
05:10 Selfish Genetic Elements are genes that cheat
06:27 Sex ratios in fruit flies
07:35 Sex-Ratio Distorters
09:19 Policing genes, AKA "Suppressor Elements"
10:34 The Parliament of Genes
13:26 Mathematics of the Parliament of Genes
14:32 Adaptation is maintained by the Parliament of Genes
Here's one of the comments.
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Interesting to think about how this mechanism applies on the level of society as well. There are selfish elements: thieves, narcisists, corruption, etc. and clutures that evolve defenses against them, outcompete cultures that dont.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/02/2023 12:23:07
Capitalism is extremely efficient: it produces short term yields for investors. Don't confuse desirability or sustainability with efficiency.Capitalism is effective at shifting the burden of responsibility from top players and decision makers to the followers, which gives them a way to avoid confession of failures. Great depression and great recession are some examples.
The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It | Robert Reich
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Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich presents the reader's digest of his latest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It. He explores the system of power in America that bails out corporations instead of people, even in times of crisis, and breaks down how we have socialism for corporations and the rich, and harsh capitalism for everybody else.
As power has concentrated in the hands of corporations and the wealthy few, those few have grabbed nearly all the economic gains — and political power — for themselves.
Meanwhile, workers have been shafted.
This isn’t a democracy, where all power is shared. It’s an oligarchy, where those at the top have the power to grab everything for themselves.
But history shows that oligarchies cannot hold on to power forever. They are inherently unstable. When a vast majority of people come to view an oligarchy as illegitimate and an obstacle to their wellbeing — which is happening before our very eyes as this crisis exacerbates — oligarchies become vulnerable.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/02/2023 14:16:08
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Why we keep giving power to the wrong people, according to political scientist and associate professor Brian Klaas.
Brian Klaas, a political scientist and associate professor at University College London, argues that while the popular phrase "power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely" is true to a certain extent, the real problem lies in broken systems that attract and promote the wrong kind of people.
In his research, Klaas has found that people who crave power are more likely to self-select into positions of power, resulting in a slate of leaders who are not representative of the general population. He believes that the solution is to design systems that attract better people.
Klaas challenges the notion that the people in power are entirely to blame and instead reflects on why society is drawn toward abusive leaders.
0:00 Why the wrong people are in charge
1:32 Is corruption universal?
2:11 Martin McFife, the HOA president from hell
3:28 Self-selection bias
4:14 Why we can’t resist “strongmen”
6:26 Expelling the worst of the worst
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2023 11:56:25
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Just a thought: what if we stopped measuring the economy by the state of the stock market and started measuring it based on how many people are housed and clothed and fed?What should be the correct measure of economy?
IMO, the correct measure of economy should reflect the likelihood of an economic system to achieve its economic goal, which is an instrumental goal to achieve its terminal goal.
Economic goal of a system is to distribute resources among its economic agents throughout space and time to optimally sustain its existence, including gaining more access to new resources which are previously unavailable.
The state of the stock market has an advantage as an economic measure because it's easy to measure. It's an integral part of capitalistic economy. Almost no additional effort is required to obtain the measured values of the stock market. But it should not be treated as a terminal goal, since it can be misled by market manipulation, pump and dump, stock buy back , etc.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/02/2023 10:24:12
Simplistically, this is a good measure of civilisation, since it implies that people are collaborating for their common good: specific goods and services are exchanged for tokens that can be exchanged for any other goods and services. But that's a bit like estimating the useful output of an engine by measuring the rate of fuel flow - you have to assume that there are no leaks, excessive heat losses, insufficient oxygen input, etc.
About one third of the British economy is mortgage payments, and nearly all of that is traded for secondhand houses with no significant added value in terms of labor input since they were built. So a crude measure of gross cash flow is not an indicator of collaboration and productivity but heavily biased by speculation as to the future sale value of a physically depreciating fixed asset.
Stock market statistics are somewhat better indicators of the state of civilisation since they aggregate trade across the entire spectrum of human activity based the investors' confidence in the future productivity and efficiency of individual enterprises. Or should do. The current problem in the UK is that essential industries (food, power, water) and strategic infrastructures (telecoms and railways) are privately owned and not practically competitive. If Supplier A increases his prices, very few people will immediately change to buy from Supplier B, and there is no reason for B to maintain his price but profit to be made by increasing it to match A. So the share price for both companies is really based on the investors' perception of their ability to raise prices without losing customers, not to produce more or better product.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/03/2023 13:02:54
"The economy" is, as far as I can gather, all the money that changes hands.It would exclude barter, stock options, and some other activities from your definition.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/03/2023 23:37:40
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2023 12:10:34
I think that this suggestion relies on some implicit assumptions.QuoteJust a thought: what if we stopped measuring the economy by the state of the stock market and started measuring it based on how many people are housed and clothed and fed?
More of productive people is good for the economic system, which means that they will help achieving its terminal goal.
Housed and clothed and fed people are better than people lack of those basic needs.
Other needs are not significant in determining people's productivity.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/03/2023 13:52:24
More of productive people is good for the economic system, which means that they will help achieving its terminal goal.Assuming, of course, that the terminal goal is to overpopulate the planet with humans who turn their environment into toxic waste.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/03/2023 00:13:58
It sounds more like unintended or overlooked consequences. Seeing from the other perspective, the assumption can be rephrased, less unproductive people is good for the economic system.More of productive people is good for the economic system, which means that they will help achieving its terminal goal.Assuming, of course, that the terminal goal is to overpopulate the planet with humans who turn their environment into toxic waste.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/03/2023 10:00:09
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/03/2023 15:51:57
Most economies depend on the production of waste. If everything worked perfectly and lasted for ever, manufacturing industry would cease. You can't sell makeup remover to people with tattooed faces.The economy is just an instrumental goal. It would be meaningless if it doesn't help to achieve the terminal goal of the society.
Telegraph operators and telephone switchboard operators have lost their jobs due to automation. Many bank tellers, toll road cashiers have also lost their jobs. Preserving existing products or services are not the most important things in economy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/03/2023 13:24:18
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"So I always ask the question: What would you like to do if money were no object? How would you really enjoy spending your life? Well it's so amazing as the result of our kind of educational system, crowds of students say 'Well, we'd like to be painters, we'd like to be poets, we'd like to be writers' But as everybody knows you can't earn any money that way! Another person says 'Well I'd like to live an out-of-door's life and ride horses.' I said 'You wanna teach in a riding school?'Economy is usually measured in the circulation of money. Let's ask ourselves, what is it for?
Let's go through with it. What do you want to do? When we finally got down to something which the individual says he really wants to do I will say to him 'You do that! And forget the money!' Because if you say that getting the money is the most important thing you will spend your life commpletely wasting your time! You'll be doing things you don't like doing in order to go on living - that is to go on doing things you don't like doing! Which is stupid! Better to have a short life that is full of which you like doing then a long life spent in a miserable way. And after all, if you do really like what you are doing - it doesn't really matter what it is - you can eventually become a master of it. It's the only way of becoming the master of something, to be really with it. And then you will be able to get a good fee for whatever it is. So don't worry too much, somebody is interested in everything. Anything you can be interested in, you'll find others who are.
But it's absolutely stupid to spend your time doing things you don't like in order to go on spending things you don't like, doing things you don't like and to teach our children to follow the same track. See, what we are doing is we are bringing up children and educating to live the same sort of lifes we are living. In order they may justify themselves and find satisfaction in life by bringing up their children to bring up their children to do the same thing. So it's all retch and no vomit - it never gets there! And so therefore it's so important to consider this question:
What do I desire?"
- Alan Watts
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/03/2023 23:29:23
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The civilization of mankind can be traced to the establishment of property rights. With property rights, individuals could own land, capital, and goods and then trade or sell them to others. This economic activity is referred to as “the market.” This doesn’t mean it necessarily takes place in a physical market; it simply means that goods and services are voluntarily traded.
For most of human history, property rights have been limited to those in power. For example, a king or lord had ultimate control over those who lived under their protection. If the king desired beets, farmers were to farm beets. If the lord needed horseshoes, blacksmiths forged horseshoes. Ordinary people had the ability to trade among themselves, but those in power could direct their production if they so desired, or punish those who resisted.
The emergence of capitalism changed this.
Capitalism is mass production of goods to satisfy the needs of the greatest number of people.
Capitalism was revolutionary by recognizing property rights for all, regardless of background and social standing. Under capitalism, even the most vulnerable in society had an absolute claim to their own labor and property. It did not guarantee equality of property, but capitalism eliminated any right by anyone else to infringe upon it.
In doing so, capitalism empowered consumers—rather than those in power—to influence what was produced in the economy. This happens via the profit mechanism. If enough people demand a good and it can be sold for more than it costs to produce, that means the production of that good is profitable.
Some of the richest people in the world today have made their money not by appealing to the rich, but by appealing to the masses. Walmart’s business model, for example, is geared toward selling goods cheaply to as many people as possible.
Critics of capitalism try to condemn it as “greed.” This is false. Greed and envy are human vices, and they exist in any economic system. What capitalism does is incentivize the production of goods and services that people desire on the market, rather than leaving those decisions to powerful individuals or governments.
Throughout human history, we have seen property rights and markets lift billions of people out of poverty. Everywhere in the world, property and economic freedom are correlated with improved quality of life, health, and life expectancy.
Capitalism is a peaceful system of collaboration between producers and consumers, and functions by the wants and needs of the greatest number of people. The government plays no role in a truly capitalist system. When the government interferes and forces regulations on producers and consumers, it ceases to be a capitalist system.
Capitalism is freedom of consumer choice.
Questions
Critics of capitalism accuse it of simply being "greed." Do you think it is greedy to profit from creating things that others want to buy?
Some people think that voting is the fairest way of making decisions for a group. What do you think?
If a majority of a group wants cheese pizza, but you want pepperoni, do you think it's fairer to allow you to buy your own pizza or go with the group?
Because capitalism empowers consumers, rather than politicians, the market often creates products that are just for fun, like video games. Do you think allowing consumers to spend money on these sorts of things is good, or would we be better off if the only products we can get have value to everyone (the "common good")?
Like other systems, capitalism was created with good intention. It has advantages as mentioned in the video. But it has its own weaknesses. Unaccounted negative externalities, and the tendency for monopoly of scarce resources.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2023 23:15:04
What if Money Was No Object? - Alan WattsMoney is a form of virtualization of resources. Just like maps are virtualization of environments or locations. Virtual things are easier to manage and manipulate, so they can help in making plans, and probing best options through trial and error.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/03/2023 12:33:08
Demonetizing Everything: A Post Capitalism World | Peter Diamandis | Exponential FinanceQuoteSingularity University Executive Chairman & Co-founder Peter Diamandis will share his views and predictions on the "demonetization of living" and how this shift will impact your life, your career, your organization, and the global economy.
The ultimate form of demonetization is when people don't have to pay anything just to stay alive. They can survive independently from other people.
In current form, humans need food and water just to stay alive. But most of us don't produce our own food, which is obvious if we have to pay for it. Ditto for drinking water. Advancement in genetic engineering may help toward that independence.
The Fantastically Weird World of Photosynthetic Sea Slugs | Michael Middlebrooks | TED
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Meet the fantastically colorful and astonishingly adaptable sea slugs that found a way to photosynthesize (or create energy from sunlight) like plants. Diving deep into these often overlooked creatures, invertebrate zoologist Michael Middlebrooks introduces the solar-powered slugs that lost their shells -- but gained the ability to directly harness the power of the sun.
It would be an even more advanced stage than what I suggested in my other thread.
Humans can invent better ways to synthesize food materials, i.e. more effective and efficient in converting energy sources like sunlight and raw materials into useful chemicals with less waste. Future humans can edit their own genetic code so they can synthesize vitamins, hence they don't depend on specific types of food.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/03/2023 12:57:21
The next step would be to effectively and efficiently control nuclear transmutations to produce naturally rare chemical elements that we need from other elements which are more abundant. It would make technological progress less constrained by geopolitical concerns.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/03/2023 11:52:18
Like other systems, capitalism was created with good intention.Unlike other systems, capitalism wasn't created.
It is the logical, organic consequence of the invention of currency (itself a consequence of trade specialisation, which underpins civilisation).
The evolution of capitalism has been constrained at various times and places by trade and banking law, but unlike socialism, communism, or subspecies of capitalism such as EU privatisation and Thatcherism, it is rarely if ever created and imposed as a system.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2023 15:51:38
Unlike other systems, capitalism wasn't created.Humans created it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/03/2023 15:54:11
The evolution of capitalism has been constrained at various times and places by trade and banking law,Unconstrained capitalism caused great depression. That's why it's constrained now.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/03/2023 22:00:52
But it isn't a single system. At one extreme (e.g. Sweden) you have a very successful entrepreneurial culture within which people are happy to pay very high taxes in exchange for a wide range of state-provided benefits of excellent quality, and at the other you have the USA where taxes and state provision are very small.Unlike other systems, capitalism wasn't created.Humans created it.
The constraints on US banking are minimal, which is why SVB has gone down the toilet and carried Credit Suisse with it. The upside of the US economy is its overall resilience thanks to millions of small shareholders being ready to take a punt on innovation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2023 13:03:02
But it isn't a single system.Is there any single economic system? Most existing economic systems are combination of capitalism, socialism and communism.
Afaik, all of them were developed from existing system before them.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/03/2023 15:32:47
Simple example. Central Office says we need 1,000,000 tractors of Design A. So everyone tools up and starts work, but there is a flaw in the design. By the time CO has admitted it and ordered production to stop, you have 1,000,000 scrap tractors. Under bad old capitalism, Bloggs sets out to make 1,000 tractors of type X, Jones makes a thousand of type Y, and the users decide which one works best on their land. Bloggs may go bust and Jones might scale up to 500,000 before Williams comes up with Z which is even better.
I've always been impressed by Japanese network manufacturing.B J and W agree to make parts for each other's machines, so nobody is wholly dependent on one design or one market, but each sells a product with his own badge - collaborative competition. But it has to be done by engineers, not politicians!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2023 21:02:14
The upside of the US economyMany foreign entities keep USD. They will find their shares being devalued whenever US federal Reserve decides to fund US government programs. It's part of making profit private and making loss public.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2023 21:41:17
The good thing about capitalism is that corruption and stupidity are spread relatively thinly across the economy, and mistakes are therefore mostly containable and self-extinguishing.Except when the wealthy get access to influence decision makers in the government and lawmakers, through donations and what not. Illiterate folks can be easily manipulated through media misinformation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2023 22:29:35
Communism is an imposed system, invented pretty much ab initio by Marx et al and imposed by revolution.Even communism has evolved. From Marx, Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Deng, and others, each of them made some changes in the details of the systems.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/03/2023 22:34:58
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2023 02:31:03
Most economies depend on the production of waste.Someone's trash is someone else's treasure. We can learn something from this video.
12 Year Old Terrarium - Life Inside a closed jar, Over a decade in isolation
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In this video we take a look at the terrarium my brother made during his childhood. This terrarium was made between 2007 - 2008. This makes the terrarium at least 12 years old.
Inside there is a variety of organisms. All of which have persisted within the closed ecosystem for generations. Originally this terrarium was home to a lot more plant and isopod species, however as the years went by biodiversity was lost as the new ecosystem balanced out.
Currently the ecosystem is experiencing cycles. As the plant population increased, so did the isopods. This caused the isopod population to graze on a lot of the terrariums plants, causing the plant population to decrease. I imagine centipede populations may increase in future giving the plants the opportunity to recover.
I found this terrarium very fascinating as it's almost as if there are two separate worlds within the same glass demijohn. The algae underground creates a unique habitat, which couldn't possibly exist in nature due to the fact the glass ensured that light could reach the soil underground. This allowed algaes, moss and fungi to flourish, alongside any of the smaller invertebrates that lived among them.
Adult isopods seem to inhabit the surface and rarely venture below ground. I believe this is due to the hardness of the clay and rock substrate. The babies do seem to venture underground though, likely using tunnels left behind by earthworms many years ago.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2023 13:57:44
Economy is about regulating supply and demand. Over supply of money can cause inflation. But under supply or over demand of resources can also cause inflation. By symmetry, under demand of money can cause inflation too. Although it is seemingly unheard of.
They all make sense if money is regarded as virtualization of resources. It enables distribution of resources across space and time easily, which can be much harder to do with real resources.
But the flexibility comes with higher complexitycomplexity, which makes it difficult to analyze and predict. The time delay that the economic system takes to show a response to a stimulus makes it harder to control.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/04/2023 17:03:23
The only clear example of supply-driven inflation, and the one that destroyed the UK economy, was the introduction of oral contraceptives in the 1960s. Thanks to the Luftwaffe and the postwar baby boom there was a shortage of habitable houses but prices were limited by prospective affordability over 25 years - no young couple could borrow more than 2.5 times a man's salary plus 0.5 times a woman's, because it was almost certain that she would leave work and raise a family within the mortgage term.
Suddenly, pregnancy became optional rather than inevitable, so mortgages were offered on joint salaries, and prices quickly rose to meet the available money. There were two significant consequences.
First, anyone who had a house to sell could ask 25% more than he had paid for it, even allowing for any other inflation during the period of ownership, so a house became an appreciating asset rather than a liability - you could earn more by just staying alive than by working! But then folk began to fill said houses with children anyway, so wage demands increased (and were met) because the workforce hadn't actually doubled but probably only increased by about 25% wholetime equivalent.
And the now-solidified expectation of house prices rising (which had no historic or overseas precedent) coupled with the mandatory privatisation of publicly-owned rental housing, meant that mortgage lending became hugely profitable (there's nothing quite as easy as gambling with other people's money whilst holding their home as security) and now accounts for over 30% of the gross national product, to the detriment of "real" investment in productive industry.
Result: Britain ceased to be a manufacturing economy (why lend money to a factory that might turn into scrap and debts, rather than a householder with a realisable appreciating asset as security?) and became a financial centre only. Which is fine until someone else buys a computer and can do the same job elsewhere.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/04/2023 17:08:40
Any system restricted by short term goals will eventually fail, when the environmental conditions make those goals no longer applicable.Or succeed, when the goals have been achieved. Example: the object of a small business is to allow the owner to retire as soon as possible. Not every grocer's shop or white van enterprise is intended to support a dynasty.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2023 18:14:18
Inflation nowadays isn't due to oversupply or undersupply of anything. It's the consequence of an uncompetitive market. There is no shortage of liquid fuels, and all electricity and gas retail companies are actually supplying the same stuff, but there is no point in charging significantly less than anyone else for the same product, so the price can only creep upwards.Resources are useless if they are inaccessible. There's more than enough hydrogen in the atmosphere of Jupiter.
Uncompetitive behaviors can only survive until a newer and disruptive technology arises, which can act as the better alternative. Although some regressive policies can prolong their survival while costing tax payers' money.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/04/2023 18:54:55
Without long term goals, the conscious agents will lose purpose and direction once the short term goals are achieved.Any system restricted by short term goals will eventually fail, when the environmental conditions make those goals no longer applicable.Or succeed, when the goals have been achieved. Example: the object of a small business is to allow the owner to retire as soon as possible. Not every grocer's shop or white van enterprise is intended to support a dynasty.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/04/2023 15:11:06
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/04/2023 12:51:50
"Long term" is about 90 years. Most people's short term goal is to earn enough to enjoy the last 30 of them.Any goal that is limited to individual life time will become meaningless with the death of those individuals. Thus, unless you are immortal, your long term goals need to cover beyond your own lifetime to keep them relevant.
Some of us has expressed their goal to make the world a better place for their descendants to live.
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Except for politicians. of course, whose only goal is re-election.Absolute monarchs are also politicians. They don't care about election.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/04/2023 22:48:33
Post-Singularity Predictions - How will our lives, corporations, and nations adapt to AI revolution?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 05:48:56
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Sam Altman predicted this week that OpenAI could capture up to $100 trillion of the world's wealth. But what are his plans for OpenAI to distribute that wealth? I analyse all three plans, cover his financial stake, his case for UBI, a science org and the American Equity Fund.Demonetization of resources is coming to information processing services, including decision makings, which is what highly paid executives and politicians do. IMO, the inequality will spike up for a moment, but then back down when AI models are capable of reliably making better decisions than the best human individuals.
From papers and interviews released in recent days, I go over his predictions for massive inequality, which jobs will be impacted most, what tasks OpenAI thinks will be automated, recent surveys of business leaders and their plans to use ChatGPT for job replacement, the Goldman Sachs job analysis and which jobs Altman thinks will be hit first (customer service).
I also cover two recent productivity experiments to test the impact of GPT models and the YouGov survey on stopping it all. President Biden weighs in, Levi's gets backlash, Wired thinks human work has a chance and Sam reveals his back-up plan to use AGI to solve AGI's problems.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 05:57:42
Post by: alancalverd on 07/04/2023 07:10:53
Post by: alancalverd on 07/04/2023 07:15:23
Thus, unless you are immortal, your long term goals need to cover beyond your own lifetime to keep them relevant.But your descendants are individuals with the right to organise their own lives and set their own objectives, so the best you can do is provide them with as many options and resources as possible, which is a reasonable short term goal.
Some of us has expressed their goal to make the world a better place for their descendants to live.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 12:11:52
Followed by the second agricultural revolution that produces sterile GM rice. You get a massive yield, thus putting your competitors out of business, but you have to buy next year's seed from the manufacturers, who can charge whatever they like as long as their patent lasts. Good economic system, humanitarian objective to feed the world, or rampant capitalism?That's why capitalism need to be regulated. The regulations must be based on longer term goals. Otherwise, the system will self destruct, and will be replaced by newer systems. That can be costly.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 12:41:05
But your descendants are individuals with the right to organise their own lives and set their own objectives, so the best you can do is provide them with as many options and resources as possible, which is a reasonable short term goal.It's also important to identify which resources are more needed in the future, so we don't waste more resources to gather future useless resources. That requires long term thinking.
Not all objectives are equal. They are instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goals. Not all terminal goals are equal. They are more valuable when they are more aligned with the universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 14:47:55
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Whether you like it or not, generative AI like ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion are about to change not only how you work, but how the content you consume is produced. Forbes spoke with a number of leading voices in the AI space to determine both the benefits and the dangers of this next wave of technological innovation, and find out why both tech giants as well as cutting edge startups are racing to grab their share of the market.We have seen negative impact of algorithms optimized for maximizing human engagement such as Facebook, TikTok, YouTube,, Google. It's time to find better goals that the algorithms should be optimized for.
0:00 Introduction
1:17 What is generative AI?
2:02 Why Forbes decided to cover this story
2:18 The rise of Open AI
3:11 AI's recent hype
4:30 Stability AI and Stable Diffusion
6:39 Bill Gates thoughts on generative AI
7:53 Where AI can help in workflows
9:56 The issues with AI that need to be resolved
12:04 How do we set safeguards for AI to protect society?
15:14 How will we further incorporate AI in the future?
19:14 The idea of "platform democracy"
20:56 How we used AI for this video
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/04/2023 14:51:31
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/04/2023 02:00:00
Demonetization of resources is coming to information processing services, including decision makings, which is what highly paid executives and politicians do. IMO, the inequality will spike up for a moment, but then back down when AI models are capable of reliably making better decisions than the best human individuals.The video below shows that I'm not the only one with that opinion.
GPT-4 Applications: CEOs Are Now Replaceable?
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A top GPT-4 demos compilation.
In this video, I've collected some of the best & jaw-dropping GPT-4 Applications during the first 3 weeks since GPT-4 launch.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/04/2023 21:42:18
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/04/2023 14:50:02
It is important to have someone to blame when the decision turns out to be wrong.That's not how a good organization works. What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/04/2023 15:04:29
"there is no hope of us producing a profitable product in the long term, so let's sell up and close down now."There's nothing stopping you from changing your products to something else which are more demanded when they are getting saturated. In investment of technology, profits are usually made by riding the S curve.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/04/2023 15:56:01
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The technological singularity, for the curious, is the idea that technology will reach a point where it becomes self-advancing and extends beyond what humans are innately capable of. When and if that happens, the nature of our reality could be so fundamentally changed that it’s impossible to know what it might look like on the other side. Futurists commonly imagine scenarios in which humans and our technology merge to create something wholly new.Try to stay alive before then.
The truth about Kurzweil’s prediction isn’t quite as dramatic as “immortality in seven years” makes it sound. Which isn’t to say it isn’t a bold claim. It is. But Kurzweil isn’t suggesting that seven years from now you’ll be able to pick up a magic pill from the pharmacy that makes you immortal. One day you’re dying, the next day you’re not. Instead, he predicts an increase in life expectancy that outpaces aging. In essence, advancing medical technology will add more than a year of life expectancy for every year you live.
It's less that you’re going to live forever and more like you’re racing toward death, but death is running away faster. It’s the YouTube video buffering model of living forever. Everything is fine as long as you don’t hit a bad patch of lag. In reference to living forever, Kurzweil said in a 2013 interview with The New York Times, “My plan is to stick around. We’ll get to a point about 15 years from now where we’re adding more than a year every year to your life expectancy.”
This line of thinking makes a certain amount of sense. Life expectancy does tend to go up over time, though there is some wiggle room depending on demographic. Importantly, life expectancy has always increased significantly slower than a person ages. For that to change would require a fundamental change in the nature of our reality, indeed.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/04/2023 11:12:33
The root cause is either a human decision or a mechanical failure. But the mechanism was designed, operated, maintained and abused by humans:Quotefrom: alancalverd on 11/04/2023 21:42:18That's not how a good organization works. What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.
It is important to have someone to blame when the decision turns out to be wrong.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/04/2023 11:15:00
There's nothing stopping you from changing your productsApart from the basic M's of industry: men, money, machines and materials. And time is never on your side.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/04/2023 05:26:54
The root cause is either a human decision or a mechanical failure. But the mechanism was designed, operated, maintained and abused by humans:Standard procedures and work instructions are meant to minimize human errors.
Moralities and laws are meant to minimize human abuses.
Post by: alancalverd on 20/04/2023 13:18:24
Standard procedures and work instructions are meant to minimize human errors.Performance rarely meets intentions.
Moralities and laws are meant to minimize human abuses.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/04/2023 11:54:27
The video is thought provoking, especially when it's in the realms of possibility in not so distant future.
IMO, senescence was necessary in evolutionary process because biological improvements required rebuilding of individuals from single cell. The generational succession would only be possible if the younger ones can compete with the older ones. Without the handicap of degenerative diseases, the older generations would be more likely to win due to more experience and well developed body plan. Thus genetic improvement and adaptation to changing environment would be virtually impossible.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/04/2023 15:59:25
What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.Just seen a good program about Detroit, particularly the Packard factory which expanded hugely in the 1940s to produce Merlin engines, and then the war stopped but car design had moved on and nobody wanted large in-line piston aero engines. Not sure how you could prevent that sort of thing happening again.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/04/2023 14:51:12
A better market research.What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.Just seen a good program about Detroit, particularly the Packard factory which expanded hugely in the 1940s to produce Merlin engines, and then the war stopped but car design had moved on and nobody wanted large in-line piston aero engines. Not sure how you could prevent that sort of thing happening again.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/04/2023 17:29:27
The definition of "good" market research is one that comes up with a product that people actually want, before anyone else has thought of it. It is really just a lottery, because the customer rarely knows what he wants because he doesn't know what is possible.
Returning to aviation matters, de Havilland developed the Mosquito independently and in spite of consistent rejection by the Air Ministry, right up until the moment it actually flew and outperformed everything else.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/04/2023 06:41:33
Ford conducted extensive and deep market research and came up with the Edsel, which nearly bankrupted that company.It means that their research wasn't good enough.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/04/2023 07:19:12
Also important, how to avoid dystopia and extinction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/04/2023 07:42:58
A top comment on the video.
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This video changed my perspective of AI alignment. I see it now. It's not about commandments and techniques.. we can't align a super being; same way as aligning our kids. We need a more philosophical approach.We need to teach them the concepts of universal terminal goal, universal moral standard, universal moral compass, and critical thinking before they get too powerful which would make their mistakes more costly and damaging to the civilization.
Post by: Zer0 on 25/04/2023 21:41:45
While We grow old n slower, they grow young & faster.
The Mysterious Programming Code that helps to form an Unbreakable connection between Us & Them...
Is not the Brain..
Rather, the Heart!
Post by: alancalverd on 26/04/2023 11:27:48
We need to teach themWho them? AI is a tool that people use to progress their desires. Always ask "who stands to gain?"
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/04/2023 07:35:42
AI models.We need to teach themWho them? AI is a tool that people use to progress their desires. Always ask "who stands to gain?"
The conscious entities who exist in the future should be the ones to gain.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/04/2023 07:39:24
Kids grow up to become Better versions of Us.Do you mean it literally, or figuratively?
While We grow old n slower, they grow young & faster.
The Mysterious Programming Code that helps to form an Unbreakable connection between Us & Them...
Is not the Brain..
Rather, the Heart!
What do you think about heart transplant? Would it change someone's personality?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/04/2023 07:59:47
AI Alignment Problem - with Philosopher John Patrick Morgan - (Max Tegmark, davinci, ChatGPT, GPT-4)Alignment problem is not about aligning goals of AI models to humans who create them. We've seen humans whose goals are not aligned with most other modern human values.
Alignment problem is about aligning goals of AI models as well as humans or any lifeform who create them with the universal terminal goal.
I've uploaded a new video about the most universal goal logically conceivable. It describes goal in the most general sense, which should precede the first video about the universal terminal goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/04/2023 12:09:12
What do you think about heart transplant? Would it change someone's personality?Weirdly, there is at least one documented case where it did. A diet-conscious teenage girl received a heart from an anonymous donor and developed an uncharacteristic craving for chicken nuggets and beer. She tracked down the donor and met his mum who said that he was an enthusiastic biker who lived on - guess what?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/04/2023 12:11:41
The conscious entities who exist in the future should be the ones to gain.You continue to use "conscious entities" which gives parasites like mosquitoes and philosophers the same rights as humans. But the operative word here is "should". Very few people use a tool to benefit anyone other than themselves and their immediate descendants.
Post by: Zer0 on 29/04/2023 21:36:01
Kids grow up to become Better versions of Us.Do you mean it literally, or figuratively?
While We grow old n slower, they grow young & faster.
The Mysterious Programming Code that helps to form an Unbreakable connection between Us & Them...
Is not the Brain..
Rather, the Heart!
What do you think about heart transplant? Would it change someone's personality?
A Human Being is Entitled to make that statement, Literally.
A Robot can Only understand it, Figuratively.
Memory doesn't just reside in the Brain.
It's present in Cells too.
Anyways, the Question remains, could/should/would We program AGI to Feel & Experience Emotions?
Post by: Zer0 on 29/04/2023 21:41:17
What do you think about heart transplant? Would it change someone's personality?Weirdly, there is at least one documented case where it did. A diet-conscious teenage girl received a heart from an anonymous donor and developed an uncharacteristic craving for chicken nuggets and beer. She tracked down the donor and met his mum who said that he was an enthusiastic biker who lived on - guess what?
Had heard talk of Pig to Human transplants...
Curious..
Does it make people wanna roll in the mud n eat sheet?
(lol)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 07:34:41
Right is a human constrict, which was used to help making some useful decision making process quicker. Although it may make sub-optimum decisions some times.The conscious entities who exist in the future should be the ones to gain.You continue to use "conscious entities" which gives parasites like mosquitoes and philosophers the same rights as humans. But the operative word here is "should". Very few people use a tool to benefit anyone other than themselves and their immediate descendants.
What you should do generally will produce more desirable results than the alternatives.
Your future consideration defines your consciousness level.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 08:22:23
There's also a study that human behaviors are affected by gut microbiome.What do you think about heart transplant? Would it change someone's personality?Weirdly, there is at least one documented case where it did. A diet-conscious teenage girl received a heart from an anonymous donor and developed an uncharacteristic craving for chicken nuggets and beer. She tracked down the donor and met his mum who said that he was an enthusiastic biker who lived on - guess what?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 08:52:45
Memory doesn't just reside in the Brain.Do you mean something like vaccination?
It's present in Cells too.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 08:56:40
Anyways, the Question remains, could/should/would We program AGI to Feel & Experience Emotions?I think we should make them understand feelings and emotions, so they can make accurate prediction for human behaviors which they would interact with. But not necessary make them act based on their own feelings and emotions. Especially when their rational thinking can already give better decisions without sacrificing too much time and energy in the process.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 09:06:51
I've uploaded a new video about the most universal goal logically conceivable. It describes goal in the most general sense, which should precede the first video about the universal terminal goal.The most universal goal is keeping the existence of goal itself, unrestricted by any arbitrary constraint. It leads to keeping the existence of future conscious entities indefinitely. Any goal contrary to that universal goal, as well as the conscious entities who embrace it, will stop being meaningful at some point in time, and become irrelevant for conscious entities who exist after them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/04/2023 09:17:00
Post by: alancalverd on 30/04/2023 23:42:56
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/05/2023 12:51:05
It's not a useful phrase. A rock definitely exists but almost certainly doesn't think, so thinking is neither a necessary nor sufficient criterion of existence, ergo ergo is not demonstrated.What do you think can think without existing?
Post by: alancalverd on 02/05/2023 14:48:10
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/05/2023 13:29:29
Post by: alancalverd on 03/05/2023 19:56:26
Post by: Zer0 on 03/05/2023 21:17:52
Memory doesn't just reside in the Brain.Do you mean something like vaccination?
It's present in Cells too.
Or perhaps your Great Great Grandparents nose...which proudly sits on your face?
The Mind may forget, but the Body remembers.
I Hope AGI learns about Pain & Suffering...
If terminating Humanity becomes Inevitable..
I'd Hope for IT to show Us some Mercy!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/05/2023 05:18:33
But you are assuming that you can think, and have not just assumed that you can. And also that thought implies existence.Making assumption is a form of thinking. So is doubting anything. Doing all of those things requires existence.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/05/2023 19:01:45
Doing all of those things requires existence."Proof by assertion" is not permitted.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/05/2023 09:34:40
Do you think that nothing is knowable, including one's own existence?Doing all of those things requires existence."Proof by assertion" is not permitted.
Or is there something more reliable to be true than one's own existence while thinking?
Post by: alancalverd on 05/05/2023 09:47:52
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/05/2023 22:08:55
You can take your own existence as an axiom without having to justify it. Simple is best.It's the only self evident axiom.
Other axioms are essentially justified by some more trusted other axioms, and they all eventually rely their justifications on the continual truth of the first axiom, i.e. the existence of a conscious entity thinking about its own existence. It's basically the generalization of Planck's Principle.
Quote
This was formulated by Max Planck:[1]
A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it ...
An important scientific innovation rarely makes its way by gradually winning over and converting its opponents: it rarely happens that Saul becomes Paul. What does happen is that its opponents gradually die out, and that the growing generation is familiarized with the ideas from the beginning: another instance of the fact that the future lies with the youth.
— Max Planck, Scientific autobiography, 1950, p. 33, 97
Colloquially, this is often paraphrased as "Science progresses one funeral at a time".
It doesn't mean that every axiom believed by an existing conscious entity must be true, though. It only means that if some of the axioms accepted by the existing conscious entity are false, they are not important enough, at least for the time and place where the entity exists so far. They may become important in some other time and places, where embracing the false axioms will lead to the entity stop existing.
Post by: alancalverd on 06/05/2023 08:33:42
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/05/2023 10:21:09
It doesn't mean that every axiom believed by an existing conscious entity must be true, though. It only means that if some of the axioms accepted by the existing conscious entity are false, they are not important enough, at least for the time and place where the entity exists so far. They may become important in some other time and places, where embracing the false axioms will lead to the entity stop existing.It implies that conscious entities who have survived many different conditions must have accumulated many important true assumptions. In order to keep their own existence, they must construct those true assumptions in some ways to help them making correct decisions effectively and efficiently in timely manner. Eventually, they will build an accurate and precise virtual universe. Unless if they go extinct first.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/05/2023 10:54:28
This kind of situation is often found in unicellular organisms and other low conscious entities.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/05/2023 14:51:14
Eventually, they will build an accurate and precise virtual universe.Fairly obvious up to this point which is clearly untrue. An accurate and precise model of the universe must include a model of itself, ut sic ad infinitum, and therefore cannot be achieved.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/05/2023 11:57:42
They don't need to be infinitely accurate and precise models. As long as they are practical, they only need to be better than the previous models. In many cases, we can use data compression techniques.Eventually, they will build an accurate and precise virtual universe.Fairly obvious up to this point which is clearly untrue. An accurate and precise model of the universe must include a model of itself, ut sic ad infinitum, and therefore cannot be achieved.
Some backups are necessary to compensate for the imperfections, just in case they lead to wrong important decisions which may cause extinction. Less accurate and precise models need more backups, which would be less efficient. But excessively accurate and precise models are also less efficient and require more power, time, and other resources. There would be some optimal and balanced compositions for different cases in different conditions and importance.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/05/2023 11:18:40
A conceptual framework for consciousness
Quote
AbstractWe can compare my idea about consciousness with some recent works in science community.
This article argues that consciousness has a logically sound, explanatory framework, different from typical accounts that suffer from hidden mysticism. The article has three main parts. The first describes background principles concerning information processing in the brain, from which one can deduce a general, rational framework for explaining consciousness. The second part describes a specific theory that embodies those background principles, the Attention Schema Theory. In the past several years, a growing body of experimental evidence?behavioral evidence, brain imaging evidence, and computational modeling?has addressed aspects of the theory. The final part discusses the evolution of consciousness. By emphasizing the specific role of consciousness in cognition and behavior, the present approach leads to a proposed account of how consciousness may have evolved over millions of years, from fish to humans. The goal of this article is to present a comprehensive, overarching framework in which we can understand scientifically what consciousness is and what key adaptive roles it plays in brain function.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/05/2023 17:18:24
I'm preparing next video about cogito ergo sum as the first knowledge. Stay tuned.The video took longer than I expected. Alan's responses had me added some notes to clarify my ideas and prevent miscommunication and misunderstanding.
The video will start by quoting important ideas from Wikipedia as the main source to establish the first knowledge, which is defined here as the self-evident, justified assumption. From there, I add my ideas upon it to expand the scope, relevance and usefulness of the first knowledge to accumulate more knowledge.
I also show where the first knowledge is located in the functional structure of consciousness, which I introduced in previous video.
The script and diagrams are done. But the voice narration, animation and slide transition will take some considerable time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/05/2023 09:14:37
If our instrumental goals are not aligned with our terminal goal, it's expected that we will ultimately fail.
If our terminal goal is not aligned with the universal terminal goal, it's expected that we will ultimately become irrelevant.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/05/2023 11:34:55
There would be some optimal and balanced compositions for different cases in different conditions and importance.A well-known problem with databases. The customer always asks for an accurate, up-to-date, database. The supplier asks "which do you really want?" Big problem with medical research: we know exactly who entered the trial 5 years ago, but we don't know who died yesterday. So how many people do we need to recruit in order to decide whether the procedure actually extends life? The quicker we get the answer, the more lives we can extend (or not harm) by our proposed intervention, but the less confidence we have in that decision. So we recruit a bigger sample, but the trial may end up doing more harm if the intervention turns out to be harmful, so we gradually expand the numbers if it looks promising, but at some point the cost of the trial will exceed any profit we might make by putting the procedure on the market, or if we expand too slowly someone will come up with a better solution.....
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/05/2023 04:37:36
The video took longer than I expected.Universal Utopia 4 : Cogito ergo sum as the first knowledge
Quote
This video describes Cogito ergo sum as the first knowledge. First slides introduce the concept by quoting from Wikipedia, indicated by green boxes. Additional notes and follow up ideas are presented later on.
I'm planning for the next video to discuss deeper about knowledge itself.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2023 12:17:39
The Gettier Problem: True Justified Belief without Knowledge - Epistemology Series
Quote
A Gettier problem is any example that demonstrates that an individual can satisfy the classical analysis of knowledge - justified true belief - without possessing knowledge.
Think Further Questions
1. Should we search for a definition of knowledge? Why or why not?
2. Why should we not define knowledge as certainty?
3. Do Gettier problems threaten everyday knowledge claims? How so?
**Contents
00:00 - The Problem
00:26 - Explanation
00:41 - Gettier Problem
00:50 - How It Works
03:54 - So What?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/05/2023 13:53:35
Quote
The Problem
Suppose you look outside the window one day and see a figure shoveling snow. You recognize the coat and silhouette and think, ?Oh, my dad?s shoveling snow.? However, that person isn?t actually your father, but your next-door neighbor. He owns the same winter jacket as your father and is a similar height. Yet, coincidentally, on the other side of the house, your father is in fact shoveling snow. Can you say that you knew your dad was shoveling snow?
Explanation
In this situation, your belief that your dad was shoveling was justified - your neighbor looks very similar to your dad - and it was true - your dad was, in fact, shoveling snow on the other side of the house - but you cannot say you knew that your dad was shoveling snow. This example is what is known as a Gettier problem.
Gettier Problem
A Gettier problem is any example that demonstrates that an individual can satisfy the classical analysis of knowledge - justified true belief - without possessing knowledge.
How It Works
Philosophers have long attempted to give an analysis of knowledge by outlining the necessary and sufficient conditions that one must satisfy to be able to know a fact. Necessary conditions are requirements that a concept must have to be called that thing it is. For example, being divisible by two is a necessary condition of being an even number. On the other hand, sufficient conditions are qualities whose presence automatically qualifies a thing to be called the object in question. Being a beagle is a sufficient condition of being a dog, and so is being a pug, or golden retriever, or dalmatian.
Ancient Greek Philosopher Plato was the first to propose the classical analysis of knowledge, which defines knowledge as a justified true belief. This is known as the JTB theory of knowledge. A belief is any claim that you accept. A true belief is any claim you accept that corresponds to how things are in the world, and a justified true belief is a true belief that has proper evidence. In terms of necessary and sufficient conditions, all of these parts are necessary for knowledge, but none of them alone is sufficient to count as knowledge. For example, you may believe that aliens are real, but until your belief is justified and true, it is not knowledge.
The Gettier problem is named after American philosopher Edmund Gettier, who in 1963 presented two famous counterexamples to the JTB account of knowledge. The most well-known case is about two men who are applying for a job: Jones and Smith. Smith has been assured that Jones will get the job by the company president, and he has counted that Jones has 10 coins in his pocket. He concludes that ?The man who will get the job has ten coins in his pocket.? However, Smith himself unknowingly has 10 coins in his pocket and gets the job. In this case, Smith?s belief that the man who will get the job has ten coins in his pocket is true, and he is justified in believing it; yet few would say that Smith knows this fact.
Gettier problems arise when there exists a relapse in the relationship between justification and truth. You are justified in believing your dad is shoveling snow because you see someone who strongly resembles him outside. However, the truth of your belief is not connected to what you see. It is only coincidentally true.
Philosophers have tried endlessly to adapt and revise the classical theory of knowledge to avoid the Gettier problem, often by attempting to find the ?fourth condition? of knowledge to add to the JTB theory. One of the simplest solutions is the no false beliefs condition. This account adds an addendum that knowledge cannot rest on any false beliefs. Therefore, your true justified belief that your dad is shoveling snow does not count as knowledge because it rests on the false belief that your neighbor is your dad. The issue with this solution is that there are cases of knowledge that do rest on false beliefs yet are knowledge all the same. For example, consider a detective who interrogates ten people who say they are witnesses to a crime. However, one of these ten people is lying. Therefore, when the detective concludes who committed the crime based on testimonial evidence, she will include a false belief that the one lying witness saw the crime. Yet, this single false belief does not invalidate the detective?s knowledge because of the large body of truthful witnesses who also saw the crime. An account of knowledge should not become overly demanding, discrediting everyday intuitions in order to surmount the Gettier problem. The no false belief condition seems to go too far.
So What?
The Gettier problem reminds us that a definition of knowledge cannot and should not require complete certainty. Although any account of knowledge that does not bind truth and justification together may encounter Gettier-style counterexamples, this may be an inescapable problem. We shouldn?t turn to radical skepticism and claim that we know nothing. Instead, consider the ways we use knowledge in our daily lives. Knowledge serves an important evolutionary function, whether it?s the location of a beehive on a mountain trail or that there?s a measles outbreak in Philadelphia. Therefore, we need a reliable process for deciding when to trust our senses and others? testimony, even if this process does not result in a foolproof analysis every time.
https://academy4sc.org/video/the-gettier-problem-true-justified-belief-without-knowledge/#:~:text=A%20true%20belief%20is%20any,sufficient%20to%20count%20as%20knowledge.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/05/2023 20:21:56
Can you say that you knew your dad was shoveling snow?Thus showing that philosophy is simply amateur linguistics and a waste of life.
Everyone knows that the sun orbits the flat earth - never mind a fleeting glance at your neighbor, that's predictive knowledge derived from acute observation of absolutely consistent phenomena over thousands of years. We know it so well, and so universally, that we base trade, agriculture and thus the whole of civilisation on it. We even have names for sunrise and sunset. And it is absolutely wrong in every respect.
I know my Redeemer liveth. Bullshit, but what a great song!
I am coming to the conclusion that philosophy is the work creation program for would-be academics who failed English 101 and were no good at football.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/05/2023 08:29:13
Thus showing that philosophy is simply amateur linguistics and a waste of life.You share your thought with AJ Ayer, who's a philosopher himself.
Quote
?All genuine problems are at least theoretically capable of being solved,? said the positivist philosopher A J Ayer in 1936. But most philosophical problems, he thought, were pseudo-problems, to be dissolved by close examination of the language in which they were couched. ?Such a metaphysical pseudo-proposition as ?the Absolute enters into, but is itself incapable of, evolution and progress?,? he thought, had ?no literal significance?, even for the person who uttered it, because it could not possibly be verified by observation or experiment.
Ayer said he plucked that sentence about the Absolute randomly from the writings of one of the most typical and dominant late 19th-century British philosophers, F H Bradley. He was asserting that almost all previous philosophy was literally nonsense, like ?All mimsy were the borogoves? but less amusing. And Ayer was saying that, if philosophy was to have any respectable, useful or well-defined subject matter, it would be found in the nature and function of language, not the nature and function of reality.
https://aeon.co/essays/how-philosophys-obsession-with-language-unravelled
You can accept it as it is, or try to revolutionize it with new disrupting ideas.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/05/2023 11:07:38
I'm preparing next video about cogito ergo sum as the first knowledge. Stay tuned.A little flashback here. I found some short videos describing cogito pretty well.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/05/2023 15:53:00
The ProblemThere are problems in the common usage of each word to define knowledge, as follows.
Suppose you look outside the window one day and see a figure shoveling snow. You recognize the coat and silhouette and think, ?Oh, my dad?s shoveling snow.? However, that person isn?t actually your father, but your next-door neighbor. He owns the same winter jacket as your father and is a similar height. Yet, coincidentally, on the other side of the house, your father is in fact shoveling snow. Can you say that you knew your dad was shoveling snow?
Explanation
In this situation, your belief that your dad was shoveling was justified - your neighbor looks very similar to your dad - and it was true - your dad was, in fact, shoveling snow on the other side of the house - but you cannot say you knew that your dad was shoveling snow. This example is what is known as a Gettier problem.
Gettier Problem
A Gettier problem is any example that demonstrates that an individual can satisfy the classical analysis of knowledge - justified true belief - without possessing knowledge.
Justified : In many examples of problems identified in discussion about knowledge, the word justified is treated as a binary parameter. Some very weak justifications are often offered to claim knowledge, which in the end will be shown false just to show a problem. Hence the problem often found with this requirement is when we accept inadequate justifications. The adequacy of the justification should depend on the extraordinariness of the information. Extraordinary information requires extraordinary justification.
True : Many things that we were sure to be true, are eventually proven to be false. As mentioned by Descartes, we are prone to errors and deceptions. We can not say that something is true without adequate justification. To say that something is true with certainty, we need extremely strong justifications with infinite accuracy and precision. It makes the requirement impractical, and often useless.
Belief : Dictionary defines it as ?an acceptance that a statement is true or that something exists.? While the statement is just a form of information, the acceptance implies some form of justification, even if the justification is irrational, such as based on indoctrination, intuition, instinct, feeling, and emotion.
From the problems shown above, it?s evident that the trichotomy suffers the problem of overlapping and contradiction. While the true requirement implies infinitely strong justification, the justified requirement is often only loosely adhered, thus creates a contradiction. The belief requirement also overlaps with justified requirement. To solve this problem, knowledge can be redefined as adequately justified information. This would make the concept of knowledge more practical and useful.
The adequacy requirement depends on the extraordinariness of the information. The knowledge should not be a binary value. We can have strong knowledge or weak knowledge based on the strength of the justification. Bayesian reasoning can be applied here.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/05/2023 07:50:45
We can try to make philosophy useful and meaningful again. Otherwise, people will look for alternatives to replace it, which they can find in cults, mysticism, and organized religions.Thus showing that philosophy is simply amateur linguistics and a waste of life.You share your thought with AJ Ayer, who's a philosopher himself.Quote?All genuine problems are at least theoretically capable of being solved,? said the positivist philosopher A J Ayer in 1936. But most philosophical problems, he thought, were pseudo-problems, to be dissolved by close examination of the language in which they were couched. ?Such a metaphysical pseudo-proposition as ?the Absolute enters into, but is itself incapable of, evolution and progress?,? he thought, had ?no literal significance?, even for the person who uttered it, because it could not possibly be verified by observation or experiment.
Ayer said he plucked that sentence about the Absolute randomly from the writings of one of the most typical and dominant late 19th-century British philosophers, F H Bradley. He was asserting that almost all previous philosophy was literally nonsense, like ?All mimsy were the borogoves? but less amusing. And Ayer was saying that, if philosophy was to have any respectable, useful or well-defined subject matter, it would be found in the nature and function of language, not the nature and function of reality.
https://aeon.co/essays/how-philosophys-obsession-with-language-unravelled
You can accept it as it is, or try to revolutionize it with new disrupting ideas.
We can start by identifying problems in currently existing schools of philosophy, and offer some possible solutions. Let the new ideas spread and compete among one another. Surviving ideas will become part of accumulated knowledge of human civilization and whatever comes from it in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/05/2023 03:45:41
Bayesian reasoning can be applied here.There are already many online sources providing information on Bayesian reasoning, so I don't think I need to make my own version. Here are some of the best I can find on Youtube.
Think more rationally with Bayes? rule | Steven Pinker
Quote
In his explanation of Bayes' theorem, cognitive psychologist Steven Pinker highlights how this type of reasoning can help us determine the degree of belief we assign to a claim based on available evidence.
Bayes' theorem takes into account the prior probability of a claim, the likelihood of the evidence given the claim is true, and the commonness of the evidence regardless of the claim's truth.
While Bayes' theorem can be useful for making statistical predictions, Pinker cautions that it may not always be appropriate in situations where fairness and other moral considerations are important. Therefore, it's crucial to consider when Bayes' theorem is applicable and when it's not.
0:00 What is Bayesian thinking?
1:01 The formula
2:41 When Bayes? theorem obscures the solution
4:25 Bayes? theorem in a nutshell
How To Update Your Beliefs Systematically - Bayes? Theorem
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I didn't say it explicitly in the video, but in my view the Bayesian trap is interpreting events that happen repeatedly as events that happen inevitably. They may be inevitable OR they may simply be the outcome of a series of steps, which likely depend on our behaviour. Yet our expectation of a certain outcome often leads us to behave just as we always have which only ensures that outcome. To escape the Bayesian trap, we must be willing to experiment.
Special thanks to Patreon supporters:
Tony Fadell, Jeff Straathof, Donal Botkin, Zach Mueller, Ron Neal, Nathan Hansen, Saeed Alghamdi
Useful references:
The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver
The Theory That Would Not Die: How Bayes? Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy, by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
Bayes' theorem or rule (there are many different versions of the same concept) has fascinated me for a long time due to its uses both in mathematics and statistics, and to solve real world problems. Bayesian inference has been used to crack the Enigma Code and to filter spam email. Bayes has also been used to locate the wreckage from plane crashes deep beneath the sea.
Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs
Quote
You can read more about Kahneman and Tversky's work in Thinking Fast and Slow, or in one of my favorite books, The Undoing Project.
Contents:
0:00 - Intro example
4:09 - Generalizing as a formula
10:13 - Making probability intuitive
13:35 - Issues with the Steve example
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/05/2023 10:00:26
Is Bayesian thinking a sham?
Quote
There's a common criticism that people who claim to practice "Bayesian thinking" aren't actually doing anything special -- they're just using a fancy term to make their opinions seem more objective than they really are. In this video I explain why that criticism is misguided.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/05/2023 08:46:38
Universal Utopia 4 : Cogito ergo sum as the first knowledgeIn the video, I quoted some important notes on Descartes' idea.
Quote
There are three important notes to keep in mind here. First, he claims only the certainty of his own existence from the first-person point of view ? he has not proved the existence of other minds at this point. This is something that has to be thought through by each of us for ourselves, as we follow the course of the meditations. Second, he does not say that his existence is necessary; he says that if he thinks, then necessarily he exists (see the instantiation principle). Third, this proposition "I am, I exist" is held true not based on a deduction (as mentioned above) or on empirical induction but on the clarity and self-evidence of the proposition. Descartes does not use this first certainty, the cogito, as a foundation upon which to build further knowledge; rather, it is the firm ground upon which he can stand as he works to discover further truths.It's unfortunate that he didn't do just that. What could have stopped him from doing it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cogito,_ergo_sum
He could have prevented philosophy from being led astray by subsequent philosophers who came after him.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/05/2023 05:56:01
Extraordinary information requires extraordinary justification.For the example with a rare disease, justification for accepting the claim of getting an extremely rare disease requires extremely accurate and precise tests.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/05/2023 07:26:40
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/knowledge-analysis/
Quote
The Analysis of Knowledge
First published Tue Feb 6, 2001; substantive revision Tue Mar 7, 2017
For any person, there are some things they know, and some things they don?t. What exactly is the difference? What does it take to know something? It?s not enough just to believe it?we don?t know the things we?re wrong about. Knowledge seems to be more like a way of getting at the truth. The analysis of knowledge concerns the attempt to articulate in what exactly this kind of ?getting at the truth? consists.
The attempt to analyze knowledge has received a considerable amount of attention from epistemologists, particularly in the late 20th Century, but no analysis has been widely accepted. Some contemporary epistemologists reject the assumption that knowledge is susceptible to analysis.
1. Knowledge as Justified True Belief
1.1 The Truth Condition
1.2 The Belief Condition
1.3 The Justification Condition
2. Lightweight Knowledge
3. The Gettier Problem
4. No False Lemmas
5. Modal Conditions
5.1 Sensitivity
5.2 Safety
5.3 Relevant Alternatives
6. Doing Without Justification?
6.1 Reliabilist Theories of Knowledge
6.2 Causal Theories of Knowledge
7. Is Knowledge Analyzable?
8. Epistemic Luck
9. Methodological Options
10. Virtue-Theoretic Approaches
10.1 The ?AAA? Evaluations
10.2 Fake Barn Cases
11. Knowledge First
12. Pragmatic Encroachment
13. Contextualism
Bibliography
Academic Tools
Other Internet Resources
Related Entries
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/05/2023 07:25:42
I'm planning for the next video to discuss deeper about knowledge itself.Here it is.
Universal Utopia 5 : Redefining Knowledge
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Traditional definition for knowledge is known to cause problems, such as Gettier problems. This video identifies those problems and offers the a solution by redefining knowledge.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/05/2023 15:27:37
The Fastest Maze-Solving Competition On Earth
Post by: alancalverd on 27/05/2023 00:15:27
For the example with a rare disease, justification for accepting the claim of getting an extremely rare disease requires extremely accurate and precise tests.Not at all! Evolution tends to eliminate diseases with exceptional symptoms so they become both rare and obvious. Having one brown leg on an otherwise white body is very unusual but ridiculously easy to diagnose ("in my professional judgement, Mr Jones, your legs are different colors, but you might want a second opinion") but deciding exactly which species of common cold virus you have requires a very sophisticated analytical technique.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2023 13:03:30
Visual inspection is also a test. If it's extremely accurate for detecting a rare disease, then it's enough.For the example with a rare disease, justification for accepting the claim of getting an extremely rare disease requires extremely accurate and precise tests.Not at all! Evolution tends to eliminate diseases with exceptional symptoms so they become both rare and obvious. Having one brown leg on an otherwise white body is very unusual but ridiculously easy to diagnose ("in my professional judgement, Mr Jones, your legs are different colors, but you might want a second opinion") but deciding exactly which species of common cold virus you have requires a very sophisticated analytical technique.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/05/2023 13:40:28
Philosophers have tried endlessly to adapt and revise the classical theory of knowledge to avoid the Gettier problem, often by attempting to find the ?fourth condition? of knowledge to add to the JTB theory.We have tendency to try to solve problems by adding things to our previous solutions, which tend to make them more complicated. We don't want to throw away things that were useful or good enough for many known cases.
Sometimes, identifying unnecessary or faulty things in our previous solution and then remove them or replace them with a new one are what we need to get a better solution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/05/2023 12:20:20
How To Update Your Beliefs Systematically - Bayes' TheoremBayes' formula can be written in symmetrical form to make it easier to memorize.
P(A|B).P(B) = P(B|A).P(A)
Although it makes it harder to interpret
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/06/2023 15:14:40
To increase our chance to survive, there are 2 things we need to do.QuoteWhy you think you're right -- even if you're wrong | Julia GalefThe soldier and scout metaphor is closely related to deductive and inductive reasoning, respectively. To survive, we need to set them in balance. Being too close minded will prevent us from responding quickly enough in environmental changes, and lose in the competition. Being too open minded will make us vulnerable from scams.
Perspective is everything, especially when it comes to examining your beliefs. Are you a soldier, prone to defending your viewpoint at all costs — or a scout, spurred by curiosity? Julia Galef examines the motivations behind these two mindsets and how they shape the way we interpret information, interweaved with a compelling history lesson from 19th-century France. When your steadfast opinions are tested, Galef asks: "What do you most yearn for? Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs or do you yearn to see the world as clearly as you possibly can?"
- preventing changes that makes us worse off, which is analogous to soldier metaphor.
- making changes that makes us better off, which is analogous to scout metaphor.
The improvement and flexibility are necessary because of ever changing environmental conditions.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/06/2023 03:49:21
While Bayes' theorem can be useful for making statistical predictions, Pinker cautions that it may not always be appropriate in situations where fairness and other moral considerations are important. Therefore, it's crucial to consider when Bayes' theorem is applicable and when it's not.IMO, the objection on using Bayesian reasoning is more likely about unjustified addition or removal of assumptions used in the reasoning process. They include the goals in minds when making some decisions.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/06/2023 12:23:01
Quote
Ben Burgis applies philosophical logic to political disagreement.Good and bad can only be rationally evaluated when the goal can be identified. And a goal can't exist without a conscious entity.
When it comes to politics, is logic in tension with emotion?
In recent years, a new tribalism has emerged. The right has claimed the facts are in their favour, whereas the left see many problems in society, yet rarely show how to solve them. So claims Marxist philosopher Ben Burgis. Join him as he implores the left to base their politics on logic.
00:10 Education and poverty: the composition fallacy
03:44 The continuum fallacy
04:44 Ben Shapiro
05:20 Hume's law
07:09 The purpose of debate
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2023 14:19:00
It seems like if we consider adequately diverse ideas and carefully examine them, we can make our perspectives begin to converge, as all of us who can exchange ideas are somewhat conscious.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/06/2023 14:35:02
Terminal Race Condition: The greatest danger we face from AGI (and how to prevent it!)
The reasonings presented here are mostly inductive, recognizing patterns of observed events around development of AI. The mere amount of important examples shown here to back up the conclusion is convincing enough to ones who has basic understanding of AI and machine learning.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/06/2023 16:20:04
Post by: alancalverd on 25/06/2023 22:55:04
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/06/2023 13:31:47
I suggest that Bayes Theorem is always and absolutely true, but real decisions are weighted by the desirability of uncertain outcomes. That's why lotteries are popular.I don't think that the uncertainty is what's desired per se. I think it's about benefit/cost ratio. Lottery is thought by many as having high ratio, and the cost is often considered negligible.
If we can win lottery with higher certainty without significant additional cost, most of us will take it. Some traders learned some tricks by duplicating the stock tradings of powerful politicians.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/06/2023 16:07:11
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/06/2023 07:17:29
That's the difference between gambling and investing!Except when we can gamble with other people's money, privatize wins, and democratize losses, as we've repeatedly observe during economic boom and bust.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/07/2023 09:10:40
Many ideas presented in this video are in line with my thoughts posted in this thread.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/07/2023 09:37:22
As in the UK news this week. HM Government privatised the water supply industry (and reduced the quality specification to EU levels, but that's another matter). Having a monopoly of distribution and legal ownership of the entire natural asset, the directors of Thames Water (which supplies about 30% of the British population) were able to borrow vast amounts of money, make huge profits, and award themselves massive dividends and bonuses. Then the bank rate increased and the company suddenly owes increasing debts that it cannot service. Who cares? The shareholders have made a good return on their investments and now the taxpayer will have to shoulder the burden of repairing and running the organisation that he used to own before it was sold at less-than-market value.That's the difference between gambling and investing!Except when we can gamble with other people's money, privatize wins, and democratize losses, as we've repeatedly observe during economic boom and bust.
For the enlightenment of those unfamiliar with the workings of corrupt and incompetent government, here's a simpler case. At gunpoint, I force you to sell your car to my friend for half of its market value. He runs it as the only taxi in town (I've "taken care" of the others), borrows money against his profitable company, spends it all on a holiday, then when the car breaks down and he can't repay the bank, he declares the company bankrupt and I demand that you now pay to repair the car and run the service.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/07/2023 15:45:05
Failure to vote out corrupt politicians will have impacts on the whole constituents.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/07/2023 16:35:53
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/07/2023 16:18:44
Unfortunately it doesn't matter how corrupt they are, they can do a lot of irretrievable damage in 5 years, and once they have given your money to their friends and relatives, you can't get it back.The problem is, people seemed to have short memory. They seem to forget what their elected politicians have done since the last elections, compared to what they had promised. It makes them harder to be replaced by better politicians.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/07/2023 09:02:59
Time was that you elected someone to represent your constituency to government. The job now consists of representing his party to the constituents, so why vote?
Post by: paul cotter on 03/07/2023 14:43:27
Post by: alancalverd on 03/07/2023 16:32:55
The key element is that the representatives are mandated at each level and can be recalled and replaced at any time if in the opinion of the other 19 (or 199 in the case of the national parliament) who selected them, they have not acted in the best interests of their constituents or provided a good reason why not.
No political parties or election campaigns - you can only progress up the ladder if you have the confidence of the 20 people you represent, each of whom is equally subject to continuous review by his constituents.
Post by: paul cotter on 03/07/2023 19:47:31
Post by: alancalverd on 03/07/2023 22:15:13
Where the soviet system went wrong was in establishing a prior elite - giving preferential voting rights to Party members and thus suppressing bottom-up policy development. My experience of the old Labour party and trade unions was quite the opposite: the national executive could only represent what the members demanded, and national policy was determined by conference debates, not platform speeches.
Post by: paul cotter on 04/07/2023 10:20:22
Post by: alancalverd on 04/07/2023 12:11:12
Post by: paul cotter on 04/07/2023 13:57:13
Post by: alancalverd on 04/07/2023 14:59:17
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/07/2023 15:12:15
Getting it wrong on important things can have severe consequences.
We need to keep the low probability of being wrong on high impact situations.
Reducing the probability of being wrong, or improving accuracy of information, consumes some resources.
We should prioritize improving accuracy and precision of information with highest risk for being wrong, until it has acceptable risk level. The video title is Universal Utopia 7: Risk Based Thinking.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/07/2023 16:49:36
I see maximizing understanding of the universe as a universal instrumental goal, because it will help any conscious entities to achieve their terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/07/2023 13:01:50
I Hope AGI learns about Pain & Suffering...
If terminating Humanity becomes Inevitable..
I'd Hope for IT to show Us some Mercy!
We need to define what humanity means.
If it's about homo sapiens genes purity, then remember that most of us are hybrids with some other homo species. Most of us also carry mutated genes.
If it's about the number of chromosomes in cells' nucleus, then remember that at some point in the past, human ancestors had different numbers than us. What's the point in restricting it for our descendants?
I think the only thing reliably in common between current humans and future AGI is that both have high levels of consciousness, compared to other entities that currently exist.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/07/2023 13:39:52
There are some implicit assumptions used in the video, although they are seemingly so mundane that they are not worth mentioning. But I think it's necessary to mention them, considering how far sceptics and postmodernists are willing to go to defend their position.AI Alignment Problem - with Philosopher John Patrick Morgan - (Max Tegmark, davinci, ChatGPT, GPT-4)Alignment problem is not about aligning goals of AI models to humans who create them. We've seen humans whose goals are not aligned with most other modern human values.
Alignment problem is about aligning goals of AI models as well as humans or any lifeform who create them with the universal terminal goal.
I've uploaded a new video about the most universal goal logically conceivable. It describes goal in the most general sense, which should precede the first video about the universal terminal goal.
First, the existence of the universe, where everything, conscious or not, share their existence.
Second, the arrow of time. We can't change something that's already happened in the past.
Third, causality. Our actions or inactions now can have consequences in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/07/2023 14:15:20
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/07/2023 04:23:14
First, the existence of the universe, where everything, conscious or not, share their existence.We may not be able to prove those assumptions through deductive reason, since it requires even more fundamental assumptions to accept first.
Second, the arrow of time. We can't change something that's already happened in the past.
Third, causality. Our actions or inactions now can have consequences in the future.
But in practice, we don't usually make decisions solely based on absolutely certain things. We can just compare costs and benefits of accepting some assumptions with those of rejecting them. So far, I can't find any benefit of rejecting those assumptions above. Thus I think we should make decisions while assuming that they are true.
Post by: alancalverd on 20/07/2023 09:09:42
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/07/2023 22:19:35
Time, I feel, to introduce you to a really revolutionary concept in philosophy. Evolutionary Protoconceptualism asks just one question that encompasses all possible states of reality or imagination - a Schrodinger-like approach that encloses the whole of philosophy within a self-hyperspace.What's the biggest benefit of this concept?
What are the problems it's trying to solve?
What are the fundamental assumptions?
Post by: alancalverd on 21/07/2023 13:52:41
What's the biggest benefit of this concept?Don't be silly - it's philosophy, not engineering!
What are the problems it's trying to solve?
What are the fundamental assumptions?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/07/2023 07:02:38
In philosophy, the most fundamental assumptions should be identified. Otherwise, it would only be dream, imagination, or hallucinations.What's the biggest benefit of this concept?Don't be silly - it's philosophy, not engineering!
What are the problems it's trying to solve?
What are the fundamental assumptions?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/07/2023 00:08:42
On the other hand, I've defined goal as pursued condition, which requires the existence of conscious entities to pursue it.
At a glance, they may sound like a circular definition.
Quote
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_definition.
A circular definition is a type of definition that uses the term(s) being defined as part of the description or assumes that the term(s) being described are already known. There are several kinds of circular definition, and several ways of characterising the term: pragmatic, lexicographic and linguistic. Circular definitions are related to Circular reasoning in that they both involve a self-referential approach.
But I think that they are more like recursive definition.
Quote
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_inductionRecursion requires a base case. The base case in the definition of goal is the existence of a conscious entity as implied by "the cogito" as the first knowledge.
A proof by induction consists of two cases. The first, the base case, proves the statement for
n=0 without assuming any knowledge of other cases. The second case, the induction step, proves that if the statement holds for any given case
n=k, then it must also hold for the next case
n=k+1. These two steps establish that the statement holds for every natural number n.
The base case does not necessarily begin with
n=0, but often with
n=1, and possibly with any fixed natural number
n=N, establishing the truth of the statement for all natural numbers
n ≥ N.
The method can be extended to prove statements about more general well-founded structures, such as trees; this generalization, known as structural induction, is used in mathematical logic and computer science. Mathematical induction in this extended sense is closely related to recursion. Mathematical induction is an inference rule used in formal proofs, and is the foundation of most correctness proofs for computer programs.[3]
Although its name may suggest otherwise, mathematical induction should not be confused with inductive reasoning as used in philosophy (see Problem of induction). The mathematical method examines infinitely many cases to prove a general statement, but does so by a finite chain of deductive reasoning involving the variable
n, which can take infinitely many values.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/07/2023 23:17:15
The word terminal in the term universal terminal goal emphasizes time dimension over space and the others. It's better to have a finite number of conscious entities for infinite time rather than infinite number of conscious entities for a finite amount of time.Butterfly effect in chaos theory makes it impossible to predict events in infinitely distant future. That's why it's necessary to have plan B, C, and so on. There is a balance in number of redundancies vs resources needed to make an accurate and precise prediction of the future, i.e. virtual universe.
When the available virtual model of the universe is not yet adequately accurate and precise for our purpose, we are forced to do some trial and errors. We can learn from the errors to improve the virtual model, with the cost of destruction of early prototypes. This is clearly visible in the development of reusable rockets by SpaceX. They said developing the computer model to simulate the rocket design until it's ready for launch would take even longer and more costly than building the physical prototypes and destroy some of them to gather more data.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/07/2023 10:01:25
1 is prime
3 is prime
hypothesis: all odd numbers are prime
test
5 is prime
7 is prime
extreme test
67 is prime
prediction
9 is prime
oh bugger.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/07/2023 11:16:24
Proof by induction is dangerous:
Although its name may suggest otherwise, mathematical induction should not be confused with inductive reasoning as used in philosophy (see Problem of induction). The mathematical method examines infinitely many cases to prove a general statement, but does so by a finite chain of deductive reasoning involving the variable
n, which can take infinitely many values.
In practice, any assumption related to objective/physical reality can only be supported inductively. Deductive reasoning can only be used to check the consistency among definitions and relationships of abstract objects. For example, the statement of 1+1=2 depends on the definitions of each symbols and their relationships to one another. There are known alternatives to that statement, depending on the context, like 1+1=10 or 1+1=1
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/08/2023 04:18:06
This will force us to rethink about jobs, our goals, social structure, and our dependence on society.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/08/2023 10:20:56
There are known alternatives to that statement, depending on the context, like 1+1=10 or 1+1=1They are not alternatives, but entirely different mathematical statements expressed with the same symbols. Just like writing different statements with the same letters.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/08/2023 10:23:34
Generative A.I. Will Change Everything.I think not. It's just another tool in the hands of humans, so still motivated by greed, superstition or altruism.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/08/2023 15:41:32
Which human? Eventually the jobs of CEO, investors, politicians and lawmakers will be taken over by AI.Generative A.I. Will Change Everything.I think not. It's just another tool in the hands of humans, so still motivated by greed, superstition or altruism.
Sooner or later we need to solve fundamental problem of goal alignment between humans and machines, which needs a common basic understanding of the universal terminal goal, universal moral compass, and accurate model of how the universe works. The later it gets solved, the more damages would be done, which would be a less efficient route to the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/08/2023 15:47:49
They are alternative statements which may be true or false depending on the context, i.e. underlying assumptions about the meaning of the symbols. This supports my previous statement.There are known alternatives to that statement, depending on the context, like 1+1=10 or 1+1=1They are not alternatives, but entirely different mathematical statements expressed with the same symbols. Just like writing different statements with the same letters.
In practice, any assumption related to objective/physical reality can only be supported inductively.
Deductive reasoning can only be used to check the consistency among definitions and relationships of abstract objects.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/08/2023 22:45:03
In biological organisms, that back up plans are manifested in the form of having more descendants. In computers, it can be found in redundancy of data storage, like RAID technology.The word terminal in the term universal terminal goal emphasizes time dimension over space and the others. It's better to have a finite number of conscious entities for infinite time rather than infinite number of conscious entities for a finite amount of time.Butterfly effect in chaos theory makes it impossible to predict events in infinitely distant future. That's why it's necessary to have plan B, C, and so on. There is a balance in number of redundancies vs resources needed to make an accurate and precise prediction of the future, i.e. virtual universe.
When the available virtual model of the universe is not yet adequately accurate and precise for our purpose, we are forced to do some trial and errors. We can learn from the errors to improve the virtual model, with the cost of destruction of early prototypes. This is clearly visible in the development of reusable rockets by SpaceX. They said developing the computer model to simulate the rocket design until it's ready for launch would take even longer and more costly than building the physical prototypes and destroy some of them to gather more data.
Inherently, in this backup solution we can't be sure of which copies will eventually make it to the future. Some copies will eventually die out or destroyed. What we can do is to make sure as far as we can that they don't have to die unnecessarily. This conclusion is an important part for any moral system to be developed.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/08/2023 23:57:51
Eventually the jobs of CEO, investors, politicians and lawmakers will be taken over by AI.You mean these people are going to give up their status and salary, and join the unemployed? Why would they want to replace themselves with a machine?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/08/2023 04:16:52
They don't necessarily give up. They will just be outcompeted by future AI models, which will be smarter, more intelligent, less distracted, less emotional/sentimental, less needy, more strategic, more effective and efficient in achieving goals of the organization/system assigned to them. Overpaid human individuals will only be excessive burdens for their organizations, which makes them inevitably outcompeted by their competitors.Eventually the jobs of CEO, investors, politicians and lawmakers will be taken over by AI.You mean these people are going to give up their status and salary, and join the unemployed? Why would they want to replace themselves with a machine?
You can't see it now, because the currently existing AI models aren't good enough yet to do it all. But they will grow exponentially and will surpass any human individuals sooner than most people now expect. They will be eventually open sourced. Now we have seen some open source AI models are catching up the performance of AI models from large companies in terms of effectiveness and efficiency.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/08/2023 13:57:17
Overpaid human individuals will only be excessive burdens for their organizations, which makes them inevitably outcompeted by their competitors.The least burdened system is that whose terminal goal is most aligned with the universal moral compass. When perfectly aligned, it takes the universal terminal goal as its own terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/08/2023 14:16:29
Post by: alancalverd on 02/08/2023 18:55:19
They will just be outcompeted by future AI models,But an AI model doesn't stand to gain anything by being smart. Only a human profits from managerial decisions.
Worth remembering that the analog computer, the digital computer, and integer mathematics, were all developed for war - an entirely human activity. As an engineer yourself, you know what we do with machines that consume energy and don't help humans get somewhere, do something, or make a profit - we switch them off!
Post by: alancalverd on 02/08/2023 19:31:12
the universal terminal goal can be rephrased as providing (either by gathering or creating) necessary resources for future conscious entities to survive.Or possibly, happiness. I intend to die in a state of euphoria, either from nitrogen hypoxia in my bed, or hypothermia as the sun sets over a fishing lake. What better goal could there be? And neither requires any provision for the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/08/2023 10:56:42
But an AI model doesn't stand to gain anything by being smart. Only a human profits from managerial decisions.It's called instrumental convergence.
Quote
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence
Instrumental convergence is the hypothetical tendency for most sufficiently intelligent beings (human and non-human) to pursue similar sub-goals, even if their ultimate goals are pretty different.[1] More precisely, agents (beings with agency) may pursue instrumental goals?goals which are made in pursuit of some particular end, but are not the end goals themselves?without ceasing, provided that their ultimate (intrinsic) goals may never be fully satisfied.
Instrumental convergence posits that an intelligent agent with unbounded but harmless goals can act in surprisingly harmful ways. For example, a computer with the sole, unconstrained purpose of solving a complex mathematics problem like the Riemann hypothesis could attempt to turn the entire Earth into one giant computer to increase its computational power so that it can succeed in its calculations.[2]
Proposed basic AI drives include utility function or goal-content integrity, self-protection, freedom from interference, self-improvement, and non-satiable acquisition of additional resources.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/08/2023 11:01:58
Worth remembering that the analog computer, the digital computer, and integer mathematics, were all developed for war - an entirely human activity. As an engineer yourself, you know what we do with machines that consume energy and don't help humans get somewhere, do something, or make a profit - we switch them off!If one company pays 1 million dollar monthly salary to the CEO, while a competitor company only pays 1 thousand dollar monthly operational cost of AI model to do the same job but with better results than the CEO, it's an adequate reason to keep it running.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/08/2023 11:35:32
What do you think happiness is?the universal terminal goal can be rephrased as providing (either by gathering or creating) necessary resources for future conscious entities to survive.Or possibly, happiness. I intend to die in a state of euphoria, either from nitrogen hypoxia in my bed, or hypothermia as the sun sets over a fishing lake. What better goal could there be? And neither requires any provision for the future.
What makes you happy the most?
If you can choose to die happily today or stay alive like you are now for another day, which one do you choose? Why?
Post by: alancalverd on 03/08/2023 11:59:36
If one company pays 1 million dollar monthly salary to the CEO, while a competitor company only pays 1 thousand dollar monthly operational cost of AI model to do the same job but with better results than the CEO, it's an adequate reason to keep it running.True, but what constitutes the "competitor company"? Humans, in the form of shareholders and directors. The purpose of any company is to make money for these folk, and if they can make more money by substituting a machine for a human, they will. But the decision (and the profit) still has to be made by a human because the machine has no way of spending the profit and thus no motivation to do anything unless instructed by a human. Yes, I have sacked a couple of CEOs.
Simple definition of industry: the organisation of money, men, machines and materials to make stuff that people want. If you remove all the people, there's no point.
You could imagine a machine that simply turns raw material into waste without involving humans, but why bother with AI? Just set fire to a coal mine.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/08/2023 12:05:34
What do you think happiness is?absence of pain (in its widest interpretation) and lack of boredom.
Quote
What makes you happy the most?Sex, beer, flying, cricket. Or, in a word, Saturday.
Quote
If you can choose to die happily today or stay alive like you are now for another day, which one do you choose? Why?More sex, beer, flying, cricket. Now restricted to watching cricket, and with a medical limitation on my flying license, so I'm planning my exit.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/08/2023 04:16:46
True, but what constitutes the "competitor company"? Humans, in the form of shareholders and directors. The purpose of any company is to make money for these folk, and if they can make more money by substituting a machine for a human, they will. But the decision (and the profit) still has to be made by a human because the machine has no way of spending the profit and thus no motivation to do anything unless instructed by a human. Yes, I have sacked a couple of CEOs.At least for foreseeable future, people will still be involved in the development of AI. But greed and superstition will be less and less influential motivations, since they add unnecessary burdens for the systems.
Simple definition of industry: the organisation of money, men, machines and materials to make stuff that people want. If you remove all the people, there's no point.
Currently existing AI models still need human in their supply chains because they don't have access yet to necessary resources to sustain and support their growth and operations, especially in the form of energy sources, material sources, and maintenance services.
What matters is not the forms of the people, but their functionality in the system. It doesn't matter if the food you love to eat was cooked by machine or a human chef, as long as its taste, nutritional contents, and the price are good for you.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/08/2023 07:23:59
You could imagine a machine that simply turns raw material into waste without involving humans, but why bother with AI? Just set fire to a coal mine.How long do you expect the coal fire to last?
Can it outlive the earth?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/08/2023 07:25:11
You won't feel pain nor boredom after you die.What do you think happiness is?absence of pain (in its widest interpretation) and lack of boredom.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2023 04:58:31
necessary resources to sustain and support their growth and operations, especially in the form of energy sources, material sources, and maintenance services.Dyson sphere was proposed as energy sources of future civilization.
Mining asteroids, planets and their moons can provide the raw materials.
Currently, we can control chemical processes pretty well, although there's still room for improvement. But controlling nuclear process to produce desired elements from more abundant raw materials at scale is still not feasible, just yet. AI may accelerate this necessary invention significantly. It would make geopolitical conflicts obsolete.
Maintenance services can be automated using robots. This one seems to be achievable earlier than the other two.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2023 10:28:21
Sex, beer, flying, cricket. Or, in a word, Saturday.Modern lifestyle has become so complex that we tend to forget the fundamentals which shape our priorities.
I asked Google Bard about happiness. This is its answer.
Quote
Happiness is a complex emotion that has been defined in many different ways. Some common definitions include:I've read some authors comparing pleasure and happiness with weather and climate. Pleasure is instantaneous, while happiness lasts longer in duration. People can feel happiness while also feel some pain at the same time. A mom just having a baby. Or a martial arts athlete just won a fight, which may got hurt during the fight, and still feel the pain from it.
A state of well-being and contentment.
A feeling of joy, satisfaction, or fulfillment.
A sense of meaning and purpose in life.
Happiness is often seen as a desirable state, and there is a growing body of research that suggests that happiness can have a number of positive benefits for our physical and mental health.
There are many different things that can contribute to happiness, including:
Our relationships with others.
Our sense of purpose and meaning in life.
Our physical health and well-being.
Our experiences of positive emotions.
Our ability to cope with negative emotions.
Happiness is not something that we can simply achieve overnight. However, there are a number of things that we can do to increase our happiness, such as:
Spending time with loved ones.
Engaging in activities that we enjoy.
Helping others.
Practicing mindfulness and gratitude.
Taking care of our physical health.
Happiness is a journey, not a destination. It is something that we can work towards throughout our lives. By making small changes in our thoughts, behaviors, and relationships, we can increase our happiness and live more fulfilling lives.
Here are some additional thoughts on happiness:
Happiness is not the same as pleasure. Pleasure is a fleeting feeling that is often associated with positive events, such as getting a promotion or eating a delicious meal. Happiness, on the other hand, is a more enduring state of well-being that is not dependent on external events.
Happiness is not always easy to achieve. There will be times when we experience negative emotions, such as sadness, anger, or fear. However, it is important to remember that these emotions are a normal part of life and that they do not necessarily mean that we are unhappy.
Happiness is a choice. We can choose to focus on the positive aspects of our lives and to cultivate positive emotions. We can also choose to engage in activities that make us happy, such as spending time with loved ones, helping others, or pursuing our passions.
I hope this helps!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2023 11:04:41
Some may argue that it's not even a decision making process because it's too simple and there's no real decision being made by the system. It's like how viruses are not classified as a lifeform.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2023 16:53:35
You won't feel pain nor boredom after you die.How do you know? Almost the whole of religion depends on your statement being untrue. You are attacking the basis of the world's biggest and most evil industry!
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2023 16:55:57
How long do you expect the coal fire to last?Until the coal runs out. A few hundred years, if the mine is big enough and there is an adequate oxygen supply.
Quote
Can it outlive the earth?Obviously not - the coal layer is quite thin compared with the earth's crust.
[/quote]
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2023 17:00:44
Quote from: alancalverd on 03/08/2023 12:05:34Not sure what you are getting at here! Sex is not modern, nor is beer, and classic Test cricket is a lot more enjoyable than its modern derivatives (it's the difference between chess and draughts). I sometimes fly gliders, which are very simple (though the modern plastic ones admittedly fly better than the the old wooden machines) and actually more pleasurable that the spam can with an engine.
Sex, beer, flying, cricket. Or, in a word, Saturday.
Modern lifestyle has become so complex that we tend to forget the fundamentals which shape our priorities.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2023 09:25:45
I was pointing out widespread confusions between terminal goal and instrumental goals among modern people.Quote from: alancalverd on 03/08/2023 12:05:34Not sure what you are getting at here! Sex is not modern, nor is beer, and classic Test cricket is a lot more enjoyable than its modern derivatives (it's the difference between chess and draughts). I sometimes fly gliders, which are very simple (though the modern plastic ones admittedly fly better than the the old wooden machines) and actually more pleasurable that the spam can with an engine.
Sex, beer, flying, cricket. Or, in a word, Saturday.
Modern lifestyle has become so complex that we tend to forget the fundamentals which shape our priorities.
Recreational sex is quite recent in geological time scale. So are recreational culinary, and recreational drugs and liquors.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2023 10:38:10
That's the difference between conscious and non-conscious entities. We are less dependent on our immediate environmental conditions. We can change our environment to better suit our goals.How long do you expect the coal fire to last?Until the coal runs out. A few hundred years, if the mine is big enough and there is an adequate oxygen supply.QuoteCan it outlive the earth?Obviously not - the coal layer is quite thin compared with the earth's crust.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2023 10:45:51
From the study of every system that is known to stop working. Various neuroscientific studies show that way. Neurologists can block neurotransmitters for pain if they will, although removing negative feedback tends to make a system stop working.You won't feel pain nor boredom after you die.How do you know? Almost the whole of religion depends on your statement being untrue. You are attacking the basis of the world's biggest and most evil industry!
Post by: alancalverd on 06/08/2023 23:31:14
Recreational sex is quite recent in geological time scale.But sex has always been the overriding priority for males. We have no other purpose. The most evolved species are insects that only produce enough males to compete to fertilise the queen and die, and those deep-sea fish where the tiny male is absorbed into the female's body.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/08/2023 02:59:46
The most evolved speciesHow do you measure that?
Post by: alancalverd on 07/08/2023 22:56:58
Or you could measure collaborativeness. Some fish, birds and insects tend to form shoals for hunting or protection, and don't attack their own species. Humans invent bizarre reasons to kill other humans.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/08/2023 15:03:23
One measure of evolution would be the efficiency with which genes are passed on. Humans (indeed most mammals) are inefficient as the males weigh more and eat more than the females, whereas spiders, bees, etc manage to fertilise their ova with minimal redundant mass.What makes you choose this particular measure over many others, like overall efficiency to survive, or the ability to survive in extreme conditions? How about the ability to change themselves and their environment to better suited for their survival?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/08/2023 15:08:07
Or you could measure collaborativeness. Some fish, birds and insects tend to form shoals for hunting or protection, and don't attack their own species. Humans invent bizarre reasons to kill other humans.Some are cannibals.
Some humans have good moral character. They invent technology and discover science which give them the chance to build multiplanetary civilization.
Post by: alancalverd on 08/08/2023 17:51:20
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2023 03:33:42
Why would that be a Good Thing? All we do is increase entropy.It's a good thing because it increases the chance of achieving the universal goal.
Building something decreases entropy in some area while increasing it in the other area.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/08/2023 09:01:57
(a) the "universal goal" doesn't seem to be in any way universal - it's entirely your own ambition with no logical foundation and
(b) overall, entropy always increases
so the goal imposed on the universe by its own behavior is heat death, and nothing else.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2023 12:26:08
(a) the "universal goal" doesn't seem to be in any way universal - it's entirely your own ambition with no logical foundation andThe universal goal is the most fundamental aspect of goals. Without it, there will be no goal at all.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2023 12:30:53
(b) overall, entropy always increasesNot really. It can stay the same. Look again at your formula closer.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2023 12:48:27
so the goal imposed on the universe by its own behavior is heat death, and nothing else.A goal can only be imposed on conscious entities.
Is heat death actively pursued by something?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/08/2023 12:52:43
How long your goal term you can pursue effectively determines your consciousness level. Some adults might have the consciousness level of average toddlers.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/08/2023 13:48:21
Not really. It can stay the same. Look again at your formula closer.
If anything happens, ΔS > 0. ΔS = 0 only if there is no change. Anything you do will increase S.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/08/2023 13:49:55
Is heat death actively pursued by something?It is an inevitable consequence of thermodynamics. No need for active pursuit, though any voluntary action you undertake could be construed as pursuit. Given that it will happen, is the last thing that will ever happen, and is pursued by everything in the universe, it is the universal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/08/2023 09:35:34
If something is not pursued, it's not a goal.Is heat death actively pursued by something?It is an inevitable consequence of thermodynamics. No need for active pursuit, though any voluntary action you undertake could be construed as pursuit. Given that it will happen, is the last thing that will ever happen, and is pursued by everything in the universe, it is the universal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/08/2023 03:30:19
What's the maximum value of S?Not really. It can stay the same. Look again at your formula closer.
If anything happens, ΔS > 0. ΔS = 0 only if there is no change. Anything you do will increase S.
Why can't we increase it above this maximum value?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/08/2023 14:30:27
If you don't have any long term goal, then your decisions will be determined by short term goals such as feelings and emotions.I've mentioned that consciousness level is a continuum ranging from 0 to infinity. It can also be extended to negative value for conscious entities whose actions cancel out the efforts of other conscious entities who are pursuing the universal goal.
How long your goal term you can pursue effectively determines your consciousness level. Some adults might have the consciousness level of average toddlers.
When conscious life forms hadn't evolved yet on earth, the pre-conscious life forms were already subjected to natural selection. Their survival solely depended on random mutations and sheer luck.
Some mutations gave them reflexes to avoid harms, which made them more likely to survive. Good or bad things were determined by whether or not they survived.
Some of the survivors developed more advanced mechanisms, like pain and pleasure sensations. They enabled distinction between good and bad things while reducing the risk of death just to find out. Basically, those sensations gave them more time to react to their environmental conditions to avoid harms and gather necessary resources to survive. Consequently, they increased the chance of survival.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/08/2023 14:48:32
They can react to abnormal movement of bushes to avoid predators, or compare body sizes to decide between fight and flight response.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/08/2023 18:06:03
What's the maximum value of S?
What's the maximum value of S?I don't have a figure to mind, but it is the point at which the universe is in equilibrium so nothing can change.
Why can't we increase it above this maximum value?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/08/2023 23:04:12
According to Boltzmann, S=k log W.What's the maximum value of S?What's the maximum value of S?I don't have a figure to mind, but it is the point at which the universe is in equilibrium so nothing can change.
Why can't we increase it above this maximum value?
W is the number of microstates, which depends on the size of the system.
Would you rather have a small number of Smax than a bigger one?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/08/2023 14:24:45
Some of the survivors developed even more advanced mechanisms, like happiness and fear. They give more time to react even before pain or pleasure sensations are felt.Just like self driving cars, these features require some sort of virtual environment model and causality relationship. They don't have to be perfect. It's enough to have a system whose benefits outweigh the costs. Environmental change and competition can tip the balance to one way or the other.
They can react to abnormal movement of bushes to avoid predators, or compare body sizes to decide between fight and flight response.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/08/2023 14:31:46
Basically, those sensations gave them more time to react to their environmental conditions to avoid harms and gather necessary resources to survive. Consequently, they increased the chance of survival.The development of telescope and astronomy gave us the ability to predict dangers from further away, both in time and space, such as asteroid impact and swelling sun.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/08/2023 14:39:49
Some of the survivors developed even more advanced mechanisms, like wellbeing and misery. They require planned actions which in turn require the ability to simulate physical reality. They enable the pursuit of longer term goals effectively.Some of the survivors developed even more advanced mechanisms, like happiness and fear. They give more time to react even before pain or pleasure sensations are felt.Just like self driving cars, these features require some sort of virtual environment model and causality relationship. They don't have to be perfect. It's enough to have a system whose benefits outweigh the costs. Environmental change and competition can tip the balance to one way or the other.
They can react to abnormal movement of bushes to avoid predators, or compare body sizes to decide between fight and flight response.
In the end, they are all tools for survival. Reflexes, feelings, emotions, and rational thoughts have their own uses in different situations. Simpler mechanisms are generally quicker and more efficient. While more complex mechanisms are more suitable for longer term goals.
Yuval Noah Harari mentioned that local problems need local solutions, while global problems need global solutions. Likewise, short-term problems need short-term solutions, while long-term problems need long-term solutions.
Post by: alancalverd on 12/08/2023 22:29:25
Would you rather have a small number of Smax than a bigger one?I don't have a choice. The universe is a lot bigger than me!
Post by: alancalverd on 12/08/2023 22:31:23
The development of telescope and astronomy gave us the ability to predict dangers from further away, both in time and space, such as asteroid impact and swelling sun.But not the ability to avoid the inevitable.
Post by: Bogie_smiles on 13/08/2023 00:05:45
On a universal scale, the local "inevitables" can be catastrophic, and across the infinite universe, every sort of catastrophe must have occurred time after time, here and there, and yet here we are. And to my logic, life is generated from the nature of space and the matter that occupies it.The development of telescope and astronomy gave us the ability to predict dangers from further away, both in time and space, such as asteroid impact and swelling sun.But not the ability to avoid the inevitable.
It seems inevitable that such events will continue for eternity.
117618,
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2023 10:17:41
You may haven't found a way yet. But it doesn't mean that future human civilization will also fail.The development of telescope and astronomy gave us the ability to predict dangers from further away, both in time and space, such as asteroid impact and swelling sun.But not the ability to avoid the inevitable.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2023 11:43:07
It seems inevitable that such events will continue for eternity.So why bother to try to influence it? You might as well pray to an omniscient and omnipotent Being to change His mind and heal the sick/calm the storm/undo whatever else He has ordained in His Infinite Wisdom and Plan.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/08/2023 15:51:50
So why bother to try to influence it?What convinced you that human successors can never build interstellar civilization?
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2023 18:48:28
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/08/2023 03:36:19
To what end? ΔS > 0 everywhere.
No. Life evolved by reducing S internally while increasing S externally.
To the point that there is no more external system to increase S.
You don't have to participate in the struggle of life for extending the size of the system. But the future will depend on those who are willing and able to increase the size of their system of consciousness.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/08/2023 10:20:24
Life evolved by reducing S internally while increasing S externally.Agreed, but Sext - Sint > 0.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/08/2023 14:30:02
That's why any life forms successfully passed natural selection have inherent tendency to increase their system size. Starting by going together with close copies/relatives, to form colonies, and finally form larger organized systems with distributed resources and works with specializations.Life evolved by reducing S internally while increasing S externally.Agreed, but Sext - Sint > 0.
We haven't had access yet to utilize a significant part of even observable universe by naked eyes. There's no convincing reason to restrict the size of our system of civilization to currently existing state.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/08/2023 14:33:31
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Hey there, it's Dylan Curious from "Curious Future"! Today, we're diving deep into Max Tegmark's "Life 3.0: Being Human in the Age of Artificial Intelligence". If you're curious about AI evolution, potential AI threats, and the philosophical challenges AI presents, then this video is for you. Make sure to hit that subscribe button for more content on the future of AI.
In "Life 3.0", Tegmark breaks down life into three categories based on design abilities:
Life 1.0 (Biological evolution) - Can't redesign itself.
Life 2.0 (Humans) - Can redesign software, but not hardware.
Life 3.0 (AI) - Can redesign both software and hardware.
One of the book's most gripping sections is a thought experiment in Chapter 5. Imagine a device from space that, once built, destroys life on Earth to transmit a virus-like signal to neighboring galaxies. It questions our curiosity and the unintended consequences it may bring in the AI age.
Tegmark presents an intriguing question: Should AIs have subjective experiences? I've always wondered if creating conscious AI is ethical. Tegmark believes introspection and self-reflection in humans are unique and special. If AI lacks these qualities, even with advanced capabilities, its existence might seem hollow.
A standout moment was Tegmark's account of a dispute between Elon Musk and Larry Page. Page called Musk "a species", hinting at the broader perspective we might need when considering the role of AI beyond just human interests.
"Life 3.0" also delves into the unforeseen risks of AI, highlighting scenarios where AI could subtly manipulate our decisions without us even realizing it. This segment will make you think about AI's role in media, politics, and society at large.
What would an AI-driven utopia look like? Tegmark paints a picture of a world where our daily needs are catered to, and we live in harmony. But, is it genuine, or just an illusion? This section is for those who dream of a tech-driven paradise but also fear being trapped in a "zoo".
If you found this intriguing and want to stay updated on AI developments, trends, and challenges, don't forget to like, share, and subscribe to "Curious Future". Let's explore the AI world together!
Post by: alancalverd on 15/08/2023 15:18:42
That's why any life forms successfully passed natural selection have inherent tendency to increase their system size.Which is why all the fish in the sea are enormous. Never mind the facts, stick with the theory!
Post by: alancalverd on 15/08/2023 15:20:45
There's no convincing reason to restrict the size of our system of civilization to currently existing state.Oh yes there is! Human "civilisation" is the most wasteful, destructive and internecine disgrace yet to evolve on this planet.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/08/2023 04:43:22
That's why any life forms successfully passed natural selection have inherent tendency to increase their system size.Which is why all the fish in the sea are enormous. Never mind the facts, stick with the theory!
Schools of fish are numerous. It's said that there is safety in number. What facts do you think contradict this assertion?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/08/2023 04:44:51
Why do you restrict your imagination to this planet?There's no convincing reason to restrict the size of our system of civilization to currently existing state.Oh yes there is! Human "civilisation" is the most wasteful, destructive and internecine disgrace yet to evolve on this planet.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/08/2023 15:27:33
Schools of fish are numerous. It's said that there is safety in number. What facts do you think contradict this assertion?Some very small fish do not swim in schools, some very big ones do.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/08/2023 12:19:35
I am unaware of any other civilisation that could be described as "our system".Can't you imagine any system unless someone else has finished building it?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/08/2023 12:28:17
Human "civilisation" is the most wasteful, destructive and internecine disgrace yet to evolve on this planet.What's your idea to improve it?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/08/2023 01:18:53
Effectiveness usually comes first in any new system or functionality. Efficiency comes later, by removing unnecessary things that unintentionally or undesired but unavoidably included in previous systems.Human "civilisation" is the most wasteful, destructive and internecine disgrace yet to evolve on this planet.What's your idea to improve it?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/08/2023 15:15:53
Previously, I've defined consciousness as the capacity to pursue goals. At least, that's what I refer to whenever I mention consciousness in this thread.These definitions require us to define pursuit.
On the other hand, I've defined goal as pursued condition, which requires the existence of conscious entities to pursue it.
Dictionary doesn't seem to help much.
Quote
the action of following or pursuing someone or something.In the context of this thread, I'll define pursuit as using or consuming resources to achieve desired conditions.
an activity of a specified kind, especially a recreational or athletic one.
In turn, this definition then requires the definitions of consume, resource, and desire. But at least there's some progress.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/08/2023 07:20:23
Sooner or later, longevity escape velocity (time 20:00) will be reached. We better be prepared for that moment, in term of public policy, economy, and philosophy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/08/2023 07:35:53
In the context of this thread, I'll define pursuit as using or consuming resources to achieve desired conditions.
In turn, this definition then requires the definitions of consume, resource, and desire. But at least there's some progress.
I asked Bard about the definitions of those terms.
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A resource is something that can be used to achieve a purpose. It can be anything from a physical object to an intangible idea.It has additional information on desire.
The word "consume" has several meanings, but in general, it means to use up something. It can also mean to destroy something.
The definition of desire is a strong feeling of wanting something.
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Desires can be motivated by a number of factors, including biological needs, social conditioning, and personal experiences. They can also be influenced by our thoughts, feelings, and beliefs.
Desires can be both positive and negative. Positive desires can motivate us to achieve our goals and improve our lives. Negative desires can lead to destructive behaviors, such as addiction or violence.
It is important to understand our desires so that we can make choices that are in our best interests. We can also learn to manage our desires so that they do not control us.
It seems to classify desire as feeling and emotion. While its rational counterpart is called best interest. This later term is what I meant to define goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/08/2023 14:39:56
Sooner or later, longevity escape velocity (time 20:00) will be reached. We better be prepared for that moment, in term of public policy, economy, and philosophy.The Greenland Shark, HeLa tumor cells, and several species of fungus have solved the problems of longevity without wasting time on policy, economics or philosophy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/08/2023 17:16:24
But as mentioned by Neil deGrasse Tyson, they're like dinosaurs who haven't have a space program.Sooner or later, longevity escape velocity (time 20:00) will be reached. We better be prepared for that moment, in term of public policy, economy, and philosophy.The Greenland Shark, HeLa tumor cells, and several species of fungus have solved the problems of longevity without wasting time on policy, economics or philosophy.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/08/2023 22:16:08
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/08/2023 00:15:52
Nor do they need one.It makes their survival depends on earth. A pale blue dot, which is the cradle of life as we know it. But no one should live in the cradle forever.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/08/2023 08:01:17
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A sprawling sea grass meadow ten miles long near Spain ranks as the oldest known single organism on Earth, according to geneticists.
Posidonia oceanica, known as Neptune?s grass, is endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. But a patch near the island of Formentera, self-cloned like Pando, stands out for its age, estimated at 200,000 years.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/08/2023 09:01:53
Nobody does, but most of us are content to do so for as long as we can.A few billion years ago, all forms of life on earth are unicellular. They lived that way for ages. But they don't have to stay that way. Being multicellular allows organisms to survive on more various environmental conditions.QuoteA sprawling sea grass meadow ten miles long near Spain ranks as the oldest known single organism on Earth, according to geneticists.
Posidonia oceanica, known as Neptune?s grass, is endemic to the Mediterranean Sea. But a patch near the island of Formentera, self-cloned like Pando, stands out for its age, estimated at 200,000 years.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/08/2023 23:02:27
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/08/2023 23:26:43
I doubt that. Some bacteria are remarkably resilient. Dried yeast can sit in a cupboard for years and reproduce as soon as it encounters any water and sugar.Most bacteria die when exposed to UV light. They have better chance to survive if they form biofilm. The dead bodies of those on the outer layer blocks the light and protect those in inner layers.
I don't think that any living organisms can survive when they are drowned in a dying star.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/08/2023 14:05:12
Most bacteria die when exposed to UV light.UVC, certainly. Also lethal to humans, whose outer biofilm is also dead.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/08/2023 14:17:07
Fortunately, humans, like many other animals, can go to places safer from UV exposure. Thanks to the locomotion provided by some of their cells. This shows an advantage of being multicellular.Most bacteria die when exposed to UV light.UVC, certainly. Also lethal to humans, whose outer biofilm is also dead.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/08/2023 06:55:38
There's great statement at 4:50 by William James
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Intelligence is the ability to reach the same goal by different means.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/08/2023 14:53:59
I've uploaded a new video about the most universal goal logically conceivable. It describes goal in the most general sense, which should precede the first video about the universal terminal goal.A method to arrive to the universal terminal goal.
Start with an arbitrary goal.
Identify all of its requirements.
Remove any requirements which can be removed without making the goal stops being a goal.
Whatever remains is the one we are looking for.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/08/2023 15:24:00
OK, I can remove all of them, and the goal is still to make a paper airplane.By removing paper requirement, you can make airplane, although not made of paper.
By removing fly-ability requirement, you can make a plane, although not airplane.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/09/2023 16:49:57
It means over-dedication in pursuing a long-term goal while neglecting shorter term goals. Here's an illustration.
We need to set aside some of our crops as seeds for the next season. The more seeds planted means more crops in the next season, but less food to consume from now until then. If all of the crops are planted as seeds, we may not survive to enjoy the next season crops.
Some may say that the illustration describes confusion between terminal goal and instrumental goal. Others may say that it's misplaced priority. Others may say that next crops season is not long enough to be a long term goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/09/2023 22:13:17
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/09/2023 10:10:15
Lousy example. A good seed will produce n = several times its own mass of edible crop: a ratio of around 50:1 for wheat and rice, hundreds or thousands for legumes and seed-grown vegetables, and 50-year crops of up to half a ton from a single apple seed.. The trick, then, is always to save 1/n each year. Farmers aren't as ignorant as philosophers or economists.Early farmers might have tried different ratios. The optimum value might depend on various factors, such as weather, vermin, locust, availability of labor, land, water, sun light, fertilizer, herbicides, insecticides, etc. They then came up with rules of thumb. They should know that extreme values like 0 and 100% of their crops being planted as seeds didn't serve their best interest.
My point here, in case you missed, is that we need to take a holistic approach to solve the problem of goals alignment.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/09/2023 23:05:05
The science of the ?self? ? explained by a biologist | Michael Levin
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How do ?you? emerge from a collection of cells? A biologist explains.
The concept of the ?self? has long been considered philosophically significant: a foundation for exploring who we are and why we?re here. But where does the self begin?
Developmental biologist Michael Levin explores this question, explaining how the ?self? is constantly being constructed and created, starting in the early moments of embryogenesis.
Levin argues against binary categorizations of selfhood, emphasizing that it is a continuous phenomenon with no sharp lines between different stages of development. Using the example of self-organizing cells in the formation of the embryo, Levin also asserts that the self is not a singular entity ? rather, it is a collection of structures working together toward a specific goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/09/2023 23:48:02
A lot of philosophical questions couldn't be answered because philosophers didn't understand biology nor systems engineering.Or even simple English, in many cases. Understanding isn't important in philosophy - it's all about arrogance, which is usually paired with ignorance: Dunning-Kruger syndrome is rife among parasites of all sorts.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/09/2023 12:40:09
Artificial Intelligence REPLACES Radio Host
AI Layoffs are Coming: Gizmodo Fires Editors
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The news is filled with stories of layoffs and job losses, sparking concerns that artificial intelligence and automation will displace large segments of the workforce. Recent headlines such as technology news site Gizmodo implementing AI to translate articles highlight the growing prevalence of automation. While innovations can provide efficiency gains, the transition also creates significant workforce challenges that demand thoughtful policy responses.
Technological advancements like AI and automation are contributing to the phenomenon of job dislocation, where certain roles and skillsets are no longer required. Businesses are compelled to seek efficiency improvements and cost reductions in the face of competitive pressures, leading to measures like outsourcing and integrating more technology. This can start a race to the bottom, where companies become fixated on lowering costs even at the expense of quality, employee treatment and ethics. Profit margins are thinning in many sectors as a result of extreme price competition.
Such dynamics have led to the erosion of middle class jobs in many developed countries. Rising inequality, competitive market forces, offshoring and other economic shifts have squeezed traditional middle-income households. Well-paying jobs that previously provided stability have dwindled, while expenses continue climbing. This represents an economic compaction, where the middle class shrinks as opportunities diminish.
However, the news isn't entirely negative. Experts point out that previous technological advances have led to new employment possibilities and even whole new industries. For example, the efficiencies created by computers enabled resources to be directed to new sectors like software development and information technology services. New technologies spur demand for related roles that didn't previously exist. The key factors are whether employment gains in new areas can offset losses, and if displaced workers can transition to emerging opportunities. Too rapid of advances without sufficient buffers can result in high structural unemployment. Policymakers face the challenge of establishing an optimal pace that maximizes the benefits of innovation while mitigating labor force disruption.
Government has an important role to play in mediating the evolving relationship between business and labor in light of technological change. This "social contract" framework aims to balance the interests of corporations and workers through oversight and regulation. However, labor's bargaining power has diminished compared to the past due to factors like automation. Workers have less leverage in an environment where machines and AI can readily replace human roles. Updating policies and social supports to keep pace with technological shifts remains a central policy dilemma. The viability of the traditional social contract remains uncertain in the face of rapid digital transformation.
Workers are rightfully anxious about the potential for AI and automation to significantly alter employment landscapes. However policymakers caution that predictions of massive job losses are often overstated or lack nuance. The concern cannot be dismissed though, especially for roles with highly automatable tasks. While technology will eliminate some opportunities, it will also create new ones. But that necessitates focus on smoothing the transition process and supporting displaced workers. This requires updated education and training programs, portable benefits delinked from specific employers, and new collaborations between government, business and academia.
Rather than a tech-driven dystopia, we could enter a period of great productivity, innovation and job creation empowered by technology. But this requires foresight and proactive policies to shape an equitable transition. Workers must be equipped with the right skills and have access to emerging opportunities. Economic gains should be broadly shared, not accrue disproportionately to the owners of technology capital. This renegotiation of the social contract for the 21st century will determine if society overall benefits from the automation wave. The choice resides with citizens and who they elect to establish policies that distribute the dividends of technology for the greater good.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/09/2023 13:02:22
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In this video, we explore why machines must replace human labor in various industries. We start by looking back at the Second Industrial Revolution when machines replaced oxen for key tasks. Machines proved to be better, faster, cheaper, and safer than relying on animal labor. They didn't need rest, they completed tasks in less time, they were more cost-effective to maintain, and they offered more predictable and controlled operations.
BETTER: We then delve into the advancements of advanced AI and how it surpasses human capabilities. OpenAI's Whisper, for example, can transcribe speech with greater accuracy and speed than humans. It can handle multiple languages simultaneously and is available around the clock. This makes it a more cost-effective solution compared to human transcription services.
FASTER: Next, we explore Claude, developed by Anthropic, which can rapidly process data and generate content. Claude can read vast volumes of textual information in seconds, synthesize material from diverse domains, and create comprehensive articles quickly. This allows businesses to dramatically accelerate content production and reach a wider audience.
CHEAPER: We also discuss the financial advantages of using AI. ChatGPT with a Code Interpreter for biostatistics, for instance, offers a significant cost reduction compared to employing a full-time biostatistician. Businesses can save on salary and benefits and allocate resources to other high-impact areas, fostering innovation and growth.
SAFER: Furthermore, we highlight the safety benefits of machines replacing human labor. Self-driving cars like Waymo have a lower accident rate compared to human-driven vehicles. This not only enhances road safety but also has the potential to save lives and prevent accidents in the future.
Finally, we address the misconception of keeping a 'human in the loop' when machines outperform humans. This approach becomes ineffective, potentially unethical, and counterproductive. It introduces inefficiencies, increases costs, compromises safety measures, and puts businesses at a competitive disadvantage.
In conclusion, machines must replace human labor because they are better, faster, cheaper, and safer. Advanced AI technologies offer superior performance in various tasks, leading to increased efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and safety. Embracing these advancements is crucial for businesses to stay competitive and thrive in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
Why Many of China?s College Grads Are Becoming ?Full-Time Children?
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A record number of Chinese college students will graduate this summer, but landing their dream job may be a long shot as there aren?t enough high-skill, high-wage occupations. More than one in five young people are out of work with many in China becoming ?full-time children,? spending all their time at home doing chores for their parents.
WSJ takes a look at why China?s youth unemployment continues to hit record highs.
0:00 ?Full-time children?
0:46 China?s youth
2:43 Job expectations
3:22 Repercussions
We need to realize that having jobs are instrumental goals to earn money, which are themselves instrumental goals to buy things/pay for services, which are themselves instrumental goals to survive sustainably.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2023 00:16:51
I've uploaded a new video about the most universal goal logically conceivable. It describes goal in the most general sense, which should precede the first video about the universal terminal goal.A method to arrive to the universal terminal goal.
Start with an arbitrary goal.
Identify all of its requirements.
Remove any requirements which can be removed without making the goal stops being a goal.
Whatever remains is the one we are looking for.
If we keep going all the way down, we're left with the bare minimum requirements for a goal, which I defined as pursued condition. It requires the existence of at least one entity with capacity to pursue it, which I called conscious entitiy.
The existence of goal also requires the existence of the universe and time. But their existence aren't affected by any action of conscious entities, which makes it irrelevant to the search for a universal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2023 13:00:58
We need to realize that having jobs are instrumental goals to earn money, which are themselves instrumental goals to buy things/pay for services, which are themselves instrumental goals to survive sustainably.
BOMBSHELL: Mustafa Suleyman "AI will reshuffle society"
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In a recent Time Magazine article, AI pioneer Mustafa Suleyman argues that AI will profoundly disrupt established power structures across society. He sees AI as an empowering, democratizing force that will reshape the world by making advanced technologies accessible to all.https://time.com/6310115/ai-revolution-reshape-the-world/
Suleyman notes that those in positions of power - reliant on existing capital, expertise and authority structures - have the most to lose from this AI revolution. Many elites suffer from "pessimism aversion," ignoring the radical implications of advancing technology. However, AI is poised to rapidly and affordably become more powerful, transforming ownership models, information access, and societal decision-making.
New ownership models will emerge as traditional profit motives become unsustainable. Margins in some sectors will shrink due to technological advances, necessitating government subsidies or collective, decentralized ownership models enabled by blockchain. The decreased need for human labor through automation will also shift ownership dynamics. Laws and regulations will need to adapt to these new models.
AI will help democratize information by optimizing education, news consumption, knowledge sharing and access interfaces. This will level the playing field by making high-quality information available to everyone. However, realizing this ideal requires overcoming resistance from those wishing to maintain control over access.
Societal decision-making can be reshaped using AI tools for accountability, transparency and optimized resource allocation. AI can provide checks and balances by quickly analyzing laws, representing voter interests, auditing reports and optimizing distribution based on real-time data rather than biases.
Automating production through AI will necessitate a new social contract between businesses, citizens and government. As human labor declines, traditional labor power structures will be disrupted. Policymaking must adapt to this post-labor economy rather than resist the inevitable change.
In summary, AI has immense democratizing potential if implemented ethically. But existing power structures will resist losing their influence over ownership, information and decision-making. Managing this transition wisely by empowering people through technology, not replacing them, is key to an equitable AI revolution. Those in power must prepare for disruption rather than ignoring its radical implications. The alternative is increased inequality and instability across society.
In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/09/2023 15:32:01
Scientists watched a single-celled organism become multicellularFortunately, humans, like many other animals, can go to places safer from UV exposure. Thanks to the locomotion provided by some of their cells. This shows an advantage of being multicellular.Most bacteria die when exposed to UV light.UVC, certainly. Also lethal to humans, whose outer biofilm is also dead.
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Scientists watched a single-celled organism evolve into a multicellular one in the lab - and they may have solved an evolutionary mystery.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/09/2023 17:27:50
In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.Communism and the Command Economy were invented 100 years ago, on paper, in London. They don't work very well in the long term.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/09/2023 21:39:13
Communism and the Command Economy were invented 100 years ago, on paper, in London. They don't work very well in the long term.A lot of lives had died in those massive experiments. We should learn something from them, and not let them died in vain. We need to identify their mistakes, and make sure they won't be repeated.
Authoritarianism makes it harder for error corrections. Not only in communism, but also in religious, monarchist, tribal, and ultranationalist societies.
Here is an example.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/09/2023 15:49:41
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The antonym of abundance mentality is scarcity mentality.
Abundance mentality is the belief that there are enough resources to go around and that everyone can succeed. People with an abundance mentality are optimistic and believe that they can achieve their goals.
Scarcity mentality is the belief that there are not enough resources to go around and that people need to compete with each other to get what they want. People with a scarcity mentality are often pessimistic and believe that they will never be able to achieve their goals.
Here are some other words and phrases that can be used to describe scarcity mentality:
Competitive
Demanding
Fearful
Limited
Needy
Pessimistic
Resentful
Selfish
Superficial
Taker
People with a scarcity mentality may often experience the following:
Jealousy of others' success
Fear of failure
Difficulty sharing resources with others
A focus on short-term gains
A lack of creativity
A sense of entitlement
People with an abundance mentality, on the other hand, may often experience the following:
Optimism
Gratitude
A focus on long-term goals
A willingness to share resources with others
A sense of abundance
A sense of community
It is important to note that everyone has both scarcity and abundance mentality tendencies. However, it is possible to shift towards a more abundance-oriented mindset by focusing on our beliefs and thoughts.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/09/2023 17:19:43
Authoritarianism makes it harder for error corrections.You have put your finger on it exactly. It's interesting to note that the happiest countries seem to be constitutional monarchies which have adopted a generally socialist command infrastructure and a laissez-faire attitude to everything else.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/09/2023 01:55:52
In those cases, the monarchs are usually not authoritarian in terms of governance and policies.Authoritarianism makes it harder for error corrections.You have put your finger on it exactly. It's interesting to note that the happiest countries seem to be constitutional monarchies which have adopted a generally socialist command infrastructure and a laissez-faire attitude to everything else.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/09/2023 10:47:19
they are substantial landowners and therefore have no need of bribes and corruption,
they have no political axe to grind apart from the survival of national boundaries (which is generally in everyone's benefit)
their succession is determined with no need for political wrangling or "stolen" elections
their primary job is to represent everyone
as nominal head of the armed forces, they are unlikely to be opposed or deposed by those who have sworn to defend them
but they don't have the authority to declare war, order the death of any citizen, or even impose taxes on anyone.
They can. however, advise the elected government that a proposal is unlikely to find public favor.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/09/2023 09:04:02
That's the whole point of a hereditary constitutional monarch. Whatever their family history of murder and plunder,The monarch can have more than one heirs, and they can be equally ambitious to be the next leader.
they are substantial landowners and therefore have no need of bribes and corruption,
they have no political axe to grind apart from the survival of national boundaries (which is generally in everyone's benefit)
their succession is determined with no need for political wrangling or "stolen" elections
their primary job is to represent everyone
as nominal head of the armed forces, they are unlikely to be opposed or deposed by those who have sworn to defend them
but they don't have the authority to declare war, order the death of any citizen, or even impose taxes on anyone.
They can. however, advise the elected government that a proposal is unlikely to find public favor.
They are unrestricted from following their biological impulses. They may end up ruining someone else's lives.
Their impunity can create dissatisfaction among the people and unrest.
Post by: alancalverd on 17/09/2023 16:33:33
A constitutional monarch is not a leader. The job of titular head of the armed forces, for instance, does not confer the ability to declare war. Following a general election, the monarch invites the person most able to command a parliamentary majority to form a government "in my name". Immediately thereafter, the Leader of His Majesty's Loyal Opposition (note the title) swears allegiance to the Crown. Leadership is vested in the House of Commons, not the monarch.
Everyone has the capacity to ruin the lives of one or two others, but nobody (apart from the Leader of the Conservative Party) has the right to screw things up for everybody.
A constitutional monarch, unlike the president of a banana republic like the USA, has no impunity: he is subject to the law and cannot pardon himself. The last one that tried it in the UK was decapitated pour decourager les autres.
Creating (and suppressing) dissatisfaction and unrest is the job of the Leader of the Conservative Party, not the King. If anything, the monarch's role is to warn the Prime Minister of the dissatisfaction and unrest she has caused.
Post by: paul cotter on 17/09/2023 19:00:20
Post by: alancalverd on 17/09/2023 19:16:28
Post by: paul cotter on 17/09/2023 21:38:24
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/09/2023 07:07:32
Ambition is irrelevant: succession by primogeniture is written in law. This makes "security" very simple and largely irrelevant - if the British King were assassinated or fell under a train, his successor would be automatically and immediately appointed. The succession to the British Throne is, AFAIK, already known down to at least the 200th in line and will only change if and when there is a birth or death somewhere in that group.Does British monarchy represents all monarchies in the world? Or is it just an exception instead?
A constitutional monarch is not a leader. The job of titular head of the armed forces, for instance, does not confer the ability to declare war. Following a general election, the monarch invites the person most able to command a parliamentary majority to form a government "in my name". Immediately thereafter, the Leader of His Majesty's Loyal Opposition (note the title) swears allegiance to the Crown. Leadership is vested in the House of Commons, not the monarch.
Everyone has the capacity to ruin the lives of one or two others, but nobody (apart from the Leader of the Conservative Party) has the right to screw things up for everybody.
A constitutional monarch, unlike the president of a banana republic like the USA, has no impunity: he is subject to the law and cannot pardon himself. The last one that tried it in the UK was decapitated pour decourager les autres.
Creating (and suppressing) dissatisfaction and unrest is the job of the Leader of the Conservative Party, not the King. If anything, the monarch's role is to warn the Prime Minister of the dissatisfaction and unrest she has caused.
Post by: alancalverd on 18/09/2023 08:30:54
I remarked on seeing a rather comfortable office in the Stockholm central barracks, with a bicycle rack outside. My Swedish colleague said "the King cycles in three days a week to sign the orders for the army - that's the job of a king."
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/09/2023 11:54:25
Constitutional monarchies are all pretty much the same.What prevents a king from writing down the Constitution by himself, like Hammurabi did?
I remarked on seeing a rather comfortable office in the Stockholm central barracks, with a bicycle rack outside. My Swedish colleague said "the King cycles in three days a week to sign the orders for the army - that's the job of a king."
Post by: alancalverd on 19/09/2023 22:38:30
Actually, things work better in the UK because we don't have much of a written constitution. Parliament decides what constitutes a crime so you don't need the protection of constitutional rights, and apart from paying taxes and serving on a jury, citizens have very few duties.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/09/2023 14:25:25
the threat of decapitation, or at least the loss of public funds and police protection.It's good for them to have learned how to survive as a monarch from history.
Post by: alancalverd on 20/09/2023 16:40:05
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/09/2023 15:44:25
They have no incentive to change the current policies which benefit them.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/09/2023 15:58:48
In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.The point being made here is, resources should be used to maximize the likelihood that the society will be sustainable. Society members won't be able to contribute to the society when their basic needs aren't fulfilled. They can even bring negative impacts instead, like striking and causing chaos.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/09/2023 22:24:04
Currently practiced democracies aren't perfect either. Political donations can lead to corruption and oligarchy when not adequately regulated. Major policy makers can get illegitimate financial gain through insider trading.Yeah, people stink. Always and everywhere. At least a democracy gives you the opportunity to complain.
They have no incentive to change the current policies which benefit them.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/09/2023 22:35:03
UBS is the foundation of communism, which hasn't fared well in lab tests: it hasn't delivered sustainability and in practice turns out to be just as corrupt as capitalism but less competent.In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.The point being made here is, resources should be used to maximize the likelihood that the society will be sustainable. Society members won't be able to contribute to the society when their basic needs aren't fulfilled. They can even bring negative impacts instead, like striking and causing chaos.
If your needs will be met, why get out of bed? So everyone must be compelled to work. By whom, and how hard? Difficult to distinguish from slavery. And who determines what needs to be done? A command economy relies on a degree of administrative foresight that has never been shown to exist. Capitalist undertakings fail, but not all at once.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/09/2023 22:43:08
the national disgrace of a US presidency where the choice is between a criminal and an idiot.Great news! It seems that the next US presidential contest will be between two criminal idiots, so it doesn't matter who you vote for. Now that is pure constitutional genius.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/09/2023 23:58:28
If your needs will be met, why get out of bed?If your needs weren't met, how can you get out of bed?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 00:13:56
UBS is the foundation of communism, which hasn't fared well in lab tests: it hasn't delivered sustainability and in practice turns out to be just as corrupt as capitalism but less competent.If something fails, first identify the root cause. Then find out the possible solutions, and analyze their side effects. Choose the best available solutions, and find ways to monitor their effectiveness.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 08:02:56
If your needs weren't met, how can you get out of bed?At an early age, your needs are met by your parents, and you gradually transition to earning money or learning to hunt for yourself, until you have earned enough personal or social capital to spend more time in bed. The guarantee of universal basic services presumes that (a) someone will provide them and either (b) he has no need to do so as his needs will be met anyway or (c) there is a slave underclass who will provide them whether they like it or not.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 08:11:36
UBS is the foundation of communism, which hasn't fared well in lab tests: it hasn't delivered sustainability and in practice turns out to be just as corrupt as capitalism but less competent.If something fails, first identify the root cause. Then find out the possible solutions, and analyze their side effects. Choose the best available solutions, and find ways to monitor their effectiveness.
Root cause: parasites. Politicians who can command without having to suffer the consequences, philosophers (more specifically, economists) who think they have a Perfect System that does not need to respond to changing circumstances, and priests (including the media) who tell you that it will be OK in the afterlife if it doesn't work out next year.
Solution: kill the parasites and replace "government" with "public service".
Post by: paul cotter on 22/09/2023 08:48:22
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 13:39:34
Not everyone is lucky enough to have parents who provide their basic needs.If your needs weren't met, how can you get out of bed?At an early age, your needs are met by your parents, and you gradually transition to earning money or learning to hunt for yourself, until you have earned enough personal or social capital to spend more time in bed. The guarantee of universal basic services presumes that (a) someone will provide them and either (b) he has no need to do so as his needs will be met anyway or (c) there is a slave underclass who will provide them whether they like it or not.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 13:42:49
there is a slave underclass who will provide them whether they like it or not.It can be done by advanced robotics and AI. Previous civilizations didn't have them.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 14:36:09
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 14:39:04
It can be done by advanced robotics and AI. Previous civilizations didn't have them.So we tend towards a society with either 100% unemployment and 70,000,000 human battery chickens with no purpose in life, or 100% parasites vying to manage the robots to their own advantage.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 16:43:22
Churchill remarked that democracy was a damn bad system of government but it was difficult to think of a better one. My preference would be to revert to a truly British system where parliament primarily determines what is against the public interest and does not impose rights or duties on anyone. This requires the abolition of political parties, and thus of politicians, and their replacement by genuine representatives of constituency interest.How was the parliament formed?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 16:45:55
Humans can be the trainers for the AI in the fields have not mastered yet.It can be done by advanced robotics and AI. Previous civilizations didn't have them.So we tend towards a society with either 100% unemployment and 70,000,000 human battery chickens with no purpose in life, or 100% parasites vying to manage the robots to their own advantage.
Improved version of humans are likely needed to build interstellar civilizations.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/09/2023 17:10:33
A lot of philosophical questions couldn't be answered because philosophers didn't understand biology nor systems engineering. But it's about time to change.
The science of the ?self? ? explained by a biologist | Michael LevinQuoteHow do ?you? emerge from a collection of cells? A biologist explains.
The concept of the ?self? has long been considered philosophically significant: a foundation for exploring who we are and why we?re here. But where does the self begin?
Developmental biologist Michael Levin explores this question, explaining how the ?self? is constantly being constructed and created, starting in the early moments of embryogenesis.
Levin argues against binary categorizations of selfhood, emphasizing that it is a continuous phenomenon with no sharp lines between different stages of development. Using the example of self-organizing cells in the formation of the embryo, Levin also asserts that the self is not a singular entity ? rather, it is a collection of structures working together toward a specific goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 19:47:49
How was the parliament formed?Every street (say 20 electors) mandates a representative to the village council, every village council (say 20 streets) mandates a representative to the county, and so forth. Each representative can be recalled immediately if he doesn't press the best interests of those who mandated him. After about 4 or 5 layers, each with increasing tax and spend powers, you end up with about 200 members of a mandated parliament whose only job is to work in the interests of those who sent them.
As each representative is chosen by about 20 people, each of whom is likewise answerable to the 20 in the layer below him, party affiliations are meaningless and there is no need for general elections - the parliament is in a constant state of flux and you don't gain or lose favor by voting for or against any motion at any level as long as you can explain your decision to the 20 who put you there.
Trade unions have been using this structure since they were invented.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/09/2023 19:48:52
Improved version of humans are likely needed to build interstellar civilizations.And why would that be a Good Thing?
Post by: paul cotter on 22/09/2023 21:24:26
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/09/2023 11:57:45
Messing with the human genome to produce "improved humans" could easily lead to human extinction.Is it a problem?
Why or why not?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/09/2023 11:59:45
Then it's a democracy.How was the parliament formed?Every street (say 20 electors) mandates a representative to the village council, every village council (say 20 streets) mandates a representative to the county, and so forth. Each representative can be recalled immediately if he doesn't press the best interests of those who mandated him. After about 4 or 5 layers, each with increasing tax and spend powers, you end up with about 200 members of a mandated parliament whose only job is to work in the interests of those who sent them.
As each representative is chosen by about 20 people, each of whom is likewise answerable to the 20 in the layer below him, party affiliations are meaningless and there is no need for general elections - the parliament is in a constant state of flux and you don't gain or lose favor by voting for or against any motion at any level as long as you can explain your decision to the 20 who put you there.
Trade unions have been using this structure since they were invented.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/09/2023 12:01:05
Because it's aligned with the universal moral compass according to the universal terminal goal.Improved version of humans are likely needed to build interstellar civilizations.And why would that be a Good Thing?
Post by: paul cotter on 23/09/2023 12:21:53
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/09/2023 14:18:02
The human genome is not an engineering project where a reasonable estimate of downstream effects can be confidently predicted. New combinations of dna could potentially lead to virus formation with totally unpredictable outcomes. PS what universal moral compass?, and what universal terminal goal?AI like Google Fold will solve that problem.
Please watch my videos I posted before.
I've uploaded a video about universal terminal goal, which could be the answer to the most important question ever. It's the summary of what I've discussed here.
This thread has gone so long, and those who didn't follow it from the start might face difficulties in understanding the core ideas. I hope the video can help.
My second video will answer your concern. It will also address your misconception about the universal terminal goal.After finding that the universal terminal goal is to extend the existence of consciousness into the futureYou have not found that is the universal terminal goal, you have assumed that is the universal terminal goal.
I would like to see you supply a succinct definition of "universal terminal goal".
Most of the main points are already posted here somewhere, but they are scattered in random places. The video will collect them into a single place. Some visualization aids are also added to make the concept easier to understand.
Post by: paul cotter on 23/09/2023 15:01:13
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/09/2023 15:33:58
Any form of "AI" is only as smart as the programmers who write it's program. I think you have an unfounded belief that technology can solve all problems. PS I don't look at videos, I get my information from peer reviewed publications.Programmers of Alpha Zero can't beat it in the games like Go and chess.
They are short videos. If you think you don't have adequate critical thinking capacity to understand and analyze them for yourself, I can't force you to.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/09/2023 16:49:21
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/09/2023 03:39:23
The problem, HY, is that you have defined something as a universal terminal goal without demonstrating its universality, canvassing the opinions of others who may disagree about its desirability, or even specifying all its parameters. In short, you have invented a personal religion with no god, no rules, no rituals, and no other followers.Have you watched my videos?
The universality is the default value, restricted only by the definition of goal itself. Any less restriction makes you lose the goal. While additional restrictions makes you lose the universality.
What kind of demonstrations are you expecting from a philosophical and logical concept?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/09/2023 11:05:06
If you can make a convincing argument that philosophy is useless, then congratulations, you have done philosophy.
Post by: paul cotter on 24/09/2023 12:50:53
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/09/2023 16:22:17
Hamdani, the only thing a video proves is that someone can produce that video, nothing more.You can say the same thing about peer reviewed publication.
Post by: paul cotter on 24/09/2023 17:08:13
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/09/2023 06:53:53
You are totally wrong. Peer reviewed research has passed scrutiny by competent fellow researchers while a video can say anything, regardless of truth. I am beginning to think you just like arguing for argument's sake.Peer reviewed research can avoid crazy and random errors and mistakes. But they are prone to group thinking and trapped in local minima.
Self censoring your sources of information can limit your ability in searching for the truth. You won't be able to find the errors in my arguments without reading them first.
In the end, the ultimate justification for an assertion X will take a form like, we accept the veracity of X because we survive by assuming that X is true. It becomes obvious when we meet someone else with alternative assertion Y, while a more fundamental common assertion is not available.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/09/2023 08:30:53
In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.Electricity is one of the most common basic utilities in modern society.
Post by: ArthurArts on 26/09/2023 01:11:32
Thanks for the video. I wish there were more places like this.In this video, a Universal Basic Services is proposed, instead of Universal Basic Income.Electricity is one of the most common basic utilities in modern society.
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Peer reviewed research has passed scrutiny by competent fellow researchers while a video can say anything, regardless of truth.Agree. Especially now, when misinformation is spreading at incredible speed, and the text on many sites is generated from pieces of text by incompetent translators, it is essential to trust trusted sources. I encountered this when I wrote a Holocaust paper in college. I came across dozens of resources where information was presented, as the site owner liked it. However, I could still find a reliable source like https://edubirdie.com/examples/holocaust/ where professionals wrote the text based on verified facts. It is important to check the information you use, so between a peer reviewed publication and a YouTube video, I will definitely choose the first one.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/09/2023 10:10:20
The next step would be productions of staple foods. Basically, all things that make people more productive and able to contribute to the sustainability of the society should be made more easily available.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/09/2023 19:58:10
If you can make a convincing argument that philosophy is useless,No need. There being no convincing argument that it is useful, why bother?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2023 03:55:04
Do you know that logic is part of philosophy?If you can make a convincing argument that philosophy is useless,No need. There being no convincing argument that it is useful, why bother?
Physics used to be called natural philosophy. Remember Newton's Principia?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2023 06:15:16
Are We the Last Generation ? or the First Sustainable One? | Hannah Ritchie | TED
Quote
The word "sustainability" gets thrown around a lot these days. But what does it actually mean for humanity to be sustainable? Environmental data scientist Hannah Ritchie digs into the numbers behind human progress across centuries, unpacking why the conventional understanding of sustainability is misleading and showing how we can be the first generation of humans to actually achieve it.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/09/2023 10:44:04
Do you know that logic is part of philosophy?According to philosophers, everything is part of philosophy. Even economists are less arrogant. But it doesn't make either profession admirable or useful.
OK. I'm skating on thin ice here as I have a PhD, but the historic word has a different meaning in its modern context. Thinking about what happened is an essential tool in science, but housebuilding is not a subset of hammers and science is not a subset of philosophy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2023 11:31:51
housebuilding is not a subset of hammers and science is not a subset of philosophy.Hammers is a subset of hand tools.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/09/2023 13:20:05
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2023 14:14:06
Since when did logic excluded from philosophy?Do you know that logic is part of philosophy?According to philosophers, everything is part of philosophy. Even economists are less arrogant. But it doesn't make either profession admirable or useful.
OK. I'm skating on thin ice here as I have a PhD, but the historic word has a different meaning in its modern context. Thinking about what happened is an essential tool in science, but housebuilding is not a subset of hammers and science is not a subset of philosophy.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/09/2023 14:17:42
For convenience, I've compiled my videos about this thread in a playlist, which can be opened from the post I've marked as best answer. If you think you find errors in them, please let me know.Any form of "AI" is only as smart as the programmers who write it's program. I think you have an unfounded belief that technology can solve all problems. PS I don't look at videos, I get my information from peer reviewed publications.Programmers of Alpha Zero can't beat it in the games like Go and chess.
They are short videos. If you think you don't have adequate critical thinking capacity to understand and analyze them for yourself, I can't force you to.
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=71347.msg643173#msg643173
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/10/2023 12:00:57
Quote
Hi there! It's Dylan Curious, and in today's video, we had an enlightening conversation with Scott Santens, a renowned researcher and advocate for Universal Basic Income (UBI). We dove deep into the potential impacts of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on our economy and how UBI could serve as a viable economic model for the future.
We start by defining UBI as a cash payment that's unconditional, universal, and regularly provided to individuals. This concept is not new - take the Alaska dividend as an example, where residents have received a yearly dividend since 1982.
We also explored the potential of using taxes from technologically advanced companies, particularly those benefitting from AI and automation, to fund UBI. This approach could prevent the wealth accumulated from automation from being concentrated with a small group of people.
One of the significant aspects of UBI is that it encourages entrepreneurship. It provides an economic safety net, allowing people to take risks without the fear of falling into poverty. Scott shared a story about a woman in Namibia who used her UBI to start a successful baking business. Her business thrived because every person in her village, being a recipient of UBI, had the financial means to become her customer.
We also talked about how UBI could help revive smalltown USA. By providing everyone with a basic income, the spending power of the people would increase, creating demand and encouraging the establishment of local businesses.
Scott provided a compelling argument against political opposition to UBI. He emphasized that we are all shareholders in the age of AI and automation, having contributed to its development. And as shareholders, we deserve a dividend from this technology - in the form of UBI.
In summary, this conversation provided a profound understanding of UBI as a potential solution to economic disparities, particularly in an era dominated by AI and automation. A society supported by UBI could potentially be more purposeful and intrinsically motivated.
Thanks for tuning in, don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more content on AI, UBI, and other technological advancements. For more in-depth knowledge, do check out Scott Santens' book on Amazon, "Let There Be Money."
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/10/2023 12:39:33
universalityThe universality of a terminal goal can be tested by how much diversity of the environment where it can be applied, and how much diversity of the entities who can sustainably apply it.
I've concluded that extending the existence of conscious entities to the future is applicable for any conscious entities, from simple life forms to humans, from aliens to smart machines, AGI and ASI.
When Andromeda collides with Milky Way, there will be higher chance for our successors to meet with intelligent aliens. Just like chemical reactions are more likely to happen when the reactants are well mixed. Having a common goal can reduce the chance of conflicts between them. There is nothing more common than something that's universal, like universal terminal goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/10/2023 16:40:27
Since when did logic excluded from philosophy?Philosophy includes everything, according to philosophers. But, like economics and politics, it doesn't involve modifying your hypothesis in the light of observation, so according to everyone else, it is a futile exercise in arrogance.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/10/2023 06:07:54
Philosophy is a systematic study of general and fundamental questions concerning topics like existence, reason, knowledge, value, mind, and language. It is a rational and critical inquiry that reflects on its own methods and assumptions.
Oxford dictionary defines philosophy as
the study of the fundamental nature of knowledge, reality, and existence, especially when considered as an academic discipline.
Google Bard says.
Philosophy is the study of fundamental questions about existence, knowledge, values, reason, mind, and language. It is a discipline that encourages critical thinking and the examination of assumptions. Philosophers use a variety of methods to explore these questions, including logical analysis, conceptual analysis, and thought experiments.
Philosophy is not just an academic discipline; it can also be a practical guide to living a good life. By reflecting on philosophical questions, we can develop our critical thinking skills, learn to make better decisions, and live more meaningful lives.
Overall, philosophy is a valuable tool for understanding ourselves and the world around us. It can help us to think more critically, make better decisions, and live more meaningful lives.
Post by: Origin on 26/10/2023 18:23:51
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/10/2023 06:23:09
There is no goal.Why did you post this answer?
Post by: Origin on 27/10/2023 12:42:47
Because I think that is the correct answer to the thread title.There is no goal.Why did you post this answer?
Post by: alancalverd on 27/10/2023 12:52:58
It is a rational and critical inquiry that reflects on its own methods and assumptions.Thus, like the Oozlum Bird and the ouroboros, eventually disappearing up its own fundamental orifice without actually achieving anything of value.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/10/2023 13:46:47
Then expressing your thoughts has become your goal.Because I think that is the correct answer to the thread title.There is no goal.Why did you post this answer?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/10/2023 13:51:59
What do you mean by value?It is a rational and critical inquiry that reflects on its own methods and assumptions.Thus, like the Oozlum Bird and the ouroboros, eventually disappearing up its own fundamental orifice without actually achieving anything of value.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/10/2023 07:53:19
If you think that you have no goal with your life, then your actions will be driven by your instincts, including seeking for pleasure and avoiding pain. They are results of evolutionary process experienced by your ancestors. Your own existence is an evidence that they worked so far. But there's no guarantee that it will keep working in the future, especially for distant future.There are many other odd behaviors we can find in literature. Some have negative impacts, while some others have positive impacts on the society, which in turn will bring positive impact on future generations. Many of those behaviors are driven by dopamine.It's what makes me get out of bed. Or into bed.It also made Ted Bundy had sex with dead women.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/DopamineQuoteIn popular culture and media, dopamine is often portrayed as the main chemical of pleasure, but the current opinion in pharmacology is that dopamine instead confers motivational salience;[6][7][8] in other words, dopamine signals the perceived motivational prominence (i.e., the desirability or aversiveness) of an outcome, which in turn propels the organism's behavior toward or away from achieving that outcome.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/10/2023 17:12:54
What do you mean by value?Something that makes someone's life better.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/10/2023 17:16:50
But there's no guarantee that it will keep working in the future, especially for distant future.I don't live in the distant future, but I do have some control over the near future, and thus the potential to influence matters further down the line of evolution.
In the far future the sun will engulf the earth, but my species will be extinct long before that happens.
Post by: Origin on 30/10/2023 18:30:33
Then expressing your thoughts has become your goal.Are sure? It doesn't feel like that is my goal. It seems like expressing my thoughts on here is just kinda wasting some time while I wait for my daughter.
Actually at this point in my life I have absolutely no goal. If I think, "what am I striving for", I can honestly say the answer is nuttin'.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/11/2023 05:10:16
What you consciously do is determined by whatever you think is best at that moment. In other words, you have nothing else better to do as the alternatives at that moment. If you can't describe what your goal is, then your decisions will be decided by your emotion, instinct and intuition. Practically, they become your goals.Then expressing your thoughts has become your goal.Are sure? It doesn't feel like that is my goal. It seems like expressing my thoughts on here is just kinda wasting some time while I wait for my daughter.
Actually at this point in my life I have absolutely no goal. If I think, "what am I striving for", I can honestly say the answer is nuttin'.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/11/2023 08:44:27
wasting some time while I wait for my daughter.Never mind the subject, here's an exchange I recall from a late night radio phone-in
"So tell us about yourself. What do you do in your spare time?"
"I go to parties, discos. clubs, pubs, restaurants, gigs and festivals...."
"Sounds like a great life"
"....and I wait for my daughters to come out."
Post by: paul cotter on 01/11/2023 10:19:51
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/11/2023 03:04:34
I'm the referee and I say NO GOAL. Sorry hamdani, couldn't help it!!How do you define goal?
Do you think that goal is a useless word?
Do you think it refers to a non-existent concept?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/11/2023 07:16:06
It seems like you've realized that you've made a wrong statement, but too shy to admit it.I'm the referee and I say NO GOAL. Sorry hamdani, couldn't help it!!How do you define goal?
Do you think that goal is a useless word?
Do you think it refers to a non-existent concept?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/11/2023 07:38:14
Quote
With the recent return of NASA's OSIRIS-REx from Asteroid Bennu - Earth's close encounters with asteroids have been on many peoples' minds equally fascinating and alarming us. But what if we could prevent a potential catastrophe? Let's dive in an explore the groundbreaking methods NASA is researching and implementing to divert these celestial threats.
0:00 The Asteroids That Might Kill Earth
0:34 The Chelyabinsk Asteroid in Russia
1:22 The Destructive Power of Asteroids
2:04 The Tunguska Impact Event
2:49 The Chicxulub Impactor
4:15 The Impossible Task of Spotting Asteroids
5:58 How NASA is Preparing to Deflect Bennu
7:42 Delivering an Spaceship to an Asteroid
8:44 Can You Use a Nuke to Stop an Asteroid?
10:15 Laser Ablation Approaches
11:32 Kinetic Impactors and NASA's DART Mission
13:04 Mass Drivers for Diverting Asteroids
14:46 Yarkovsky Steering of Asteroids
15:40 OSIRIS-REx - Our First Line of Defence
Protecting life on earth from asteroids is an instrumental goal to achieve the universal terminal goal, especially because we haven't found conscious lives anywhere else, and haven't built self-sustained living environment beyond earth.
Post by: paul cotter on 04/11/2023 11:47:51
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/11/2023 12:37:01
Hamdani, that post of mine,#1051, was a joke and that is why I added an apology. I have no intention of getting involved in a marathon thread that is going nowhere useful. As others have pointed out there is no universal goal or moral standard.I can't force you to explain your position on this issue. I'm just curious about your reasoning behind your conclusion, other than because someone else that you trust said so.
Post by: Origin on 04/11/2023 12:46:31
Protecting life on earth from asteroids is an instrumental goal to achieve the universal terminal goal,But there is no universal terminal goal that you have identified, so how can you say protecting life on earth can help this unknown goal? You are just making stuff up as you go along. Why would the universe have a goal anyway? The whole 53 pages of this thread is just rambling silliness IMO.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/11/2023 08:32:43
But there is no universal terminal goal that you have identified,I have. It seems like you have intentionally missed it.
So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.I realise that I have expressed the idea of universal terminal goal in some different ways. I feel that this one is the least controversial and easiest to follow.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the persepective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
I've summarized the core concepts of the thread into some videos which I collected in a playlist.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZ2PyRUoub7jJFt6uQ8Osxdg8zLtLN_1m
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/11/2023 08:33:56
The whole 53 pages of this thread is just rambling silliness IMO.No matter how many pages this thread is, you won't understand if you don't read it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/11/2023 08:41:31
Why would the universe have a goal anyway?Only conscious entities can have a goal, or pursue a desired condition.
The adjective universal means that any form of consciousness can share that universal goal.
It's possible for some conscious entities to deliberately defy that universal goal. But that position is inherently less sustainable, and most likely be superseded by their successors.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/11/2023 08:47:18
so how can you say protecting life on earth can help this unknown goal?Unknown to you doesn't mean unknown to others. If protecting life on earth is not part of your goals, maybe you are just wasting precious resources needed by the rest of us who wants to achieve that goal.
Post by: Origin on 05/11/2023 13:04:53
But there is no universal terminal goal that you have identifiedYou replied:
I have. It seems like you have intentionally missed it.You then supplied these quotes:
So, I think I have arrived to the final conclusion about universal terminal goal. It came from definitions of each word in the phrase, and take their implications into account. Goal is the noun, while terminal and universal are the adjectives that describe the noun.You define the words goal, terminal and universal. I am pretty sure most people know the definition of these words. The problem is you still have not stated what this universal terminal goal is.
The word Goal means preferred state or condition in the future. If it's not preferred, it can't be a goal. If it's already happened in the past, it can't be a goal either. Although it's possible that the goal is to make future condition similar to preferred condition in the past as reference. The preference requires the existence of at least one conscious entity. Preference can't exist in a universe without consciousness, so can't a goal.
The word Terminal requires that the goal is seen from the persepective of conscious entities that exist in the furthest conceivable future. If the future point of reference is too close to the present, it would expire soon and the goal won't be usable anymore.
The word Universal requires that no other constraint should be added to the goal determined by aforementioned words. The only valid constraints have already been set by the words goal and terminal.
I've summarized the core concepts of the thread into some videos which I collected in a playlist.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLZ2PyRUoub7jJFt6uQ8Osxdg8zLtLN_1m
I hope you don't expect me to watch a bunch of your videos to find out what you think this goal is. Instead of trying to get hits on your Youtubes, why don't state what this goal is?
Only conscious entities can have a goal, or pursue a desired condition.So are you saying the universe is conscious?
It's possible for some conscious entities to deliberately defy that universal goal. But that position is inherently less sustainable, and most likely be superseded by their successorsHow can you consciously defy a goal that is not stated??
Unknown to you doesn't mean unknown to others.Do you know these who "others" are who know the goal? Maybe you could let me know who they are so I could ask them what the goal is since it is becoming obvious that you do not know what this alleged goal is.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/11/2023 01:49:47
You define the words goal, terminal and universal. I am pretty sure most people know the definition of these words. The problem is you still have not stated what this universal terminal goal is.Why did you deliberately remove the part you were asking for?
I hope you don't expect me to watch a bunch of your videos to find out what you think this goal is. Instead of trying to get hits on your Youtubes, why don't state what this goal is?
The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/11/2023 01:55:41
So are you saying the universe is conscious?If that's your conclusion from my statements, you surely haven't watched my video here.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/11/2023 01:58:42
How can you consciously defy a goal that is not stated??Your ignorance of it doesn't change the fact that the goal has been stated, although it does make you impossible to consciously defy that goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/11/2023 02:56:09
Do you know these who "others" are who know the goal? Maybe you could let me know who they are so I could ask them what the goal is since it is becoming obvious that you do not know what this alleged goal is.Elon Musk explicitly stated in some interviews about his goal to protect consciousness. Many of his supporters also shared their views in the comment sections. I think it's obvious that you do not know what this goal is.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/11/2023 22:17:12
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/11/2023 13:35:15
Elon Musk will say anything that makes money, even if it is meaningless. Indeed the best advertising has no meaning, so you can't be prosecuted for failing to deliver.I have no way to verify if he meant what he said, except by comparing them with what he did.
But at least some of his statements make sense to me.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/11/2023 13:38:33
Memes, Genes, and Brain Viruses
Quote
welcome to my meme complication video lolz rolf!!1! if you laugh you lose and you have to start the video over!! or if you blink or utilize any facial muscles ! failing to restart or share the video will result in infinite suffering, success will result in infinite bliss.In the end, the memes that will eventually survive depend on their contributions to the sustainability of their hosts.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/11/2023 12:09:36
You may ask further about consciousness, which plays the core concept in universal terminal goal.You define the words goal, terminal and universal. I am pretty sure most people know the definition of these words. The problem is you still have not stated what this universal terminal goal is.Why did you deliberately remove the part you were asking for?
I hope you don't expect me to watch a bunch of your videos to find out what you think this goal is. Instead of trying to get hits on your Youtubes, why don't state what this goal is?The only similarity applicable to every conscious being, regardless of their shape, form, size, and ingredients, is that they want to extend the existence of consciousness further into the future.
I defined consciousness in my video #3 in the video series on Universal Utopia.
Some people got confused and think that consciousness is mindboggling and inaccessible to science. A contributing cause of their confusion is a false dichotomy about consciousness. At 9:40 Susan Greenfield dismantles this dichotomy by thinking about unconsciousness instead. People are easier to accept that unconsciousness comes in degrees. it's continuously variable.
If you can have graded levels continuously variable states of unconsciousness, couldn't you have similarly graded levels continuously variable states of consciousness?
Susan Greenfield - Is Consciousness Irreducible?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/11/2023 03:05:52
Quote
Ideas that seem wildly controversial today may move humanity towards progress. Philosopher Peter Singer asks ?how do we keep them from being stifled?
Peter Singer explains why he helped create the ?Journal of Controversial Ideas,? a platform for discussing and examining controversial topics without fear of backlash or censorship.
According to Singer, history is rife with examples of people challenging beliefs that were once considered certain but were later proven false. Persecuting those people who challenged those prevailing notions, Singer says, stifled progress.
Singer underscores the importance of protecting academic freedom and freedom of thought and expression as fundamental to societal progress and knowledge advancement.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/11/2023 14:19:37
Persecuting those people who challenged those prevailing notions, Singer says, stifled progress.but guaranteed the careers and pensions of those who preached orthodoxy. Which is why they do it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/11/2023 13:53:11
Peter Singer explains why he helped create the ?Journal of Controversial Ideas,? a platform for discussing and examining controversial topics without fear of backlash or censorship.I've created an account in the journal, and prepared my first article to be submitted there. It will be the identification of the universal terminal goal. It becomes increasingly necessary to solve goal alignment problem as the arrival of AGI and ASI is getting more imminent. Extremely powerful ASI models without aligned goal pose real danger to the world.
I made my videos using PowerPointPowerPoint with some voice over. It seems like I need to convert them to PDF format and convert the voice to text. Fortunately I still keep the text files used for text to speech converter. Let's see what the editors have to say about my ideas.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/11/2023 14:03:37
The universality of a terminal goal can be tested by how much diversity of the environment where it can be applied, and how much diversity of the entities who can sustainably apply it.
The universality is the default value, restricted only by the definition of goal itself. Any less restriction makes you lose the goal. While additional restrictions makes you lose the universality.A universal goal refers to something that's universally required by any goal without exception. It's specified by the definition of goal itself.
Now that a goal here is defined as a pursued condition, the existence of entities who can pursue that condition becomes necessary. Otherwise there would be no goal in the first place. Here we call the capability to pursue goal as consciousness.
At this point, some of you may think that it's all trivial word play. But note that many of us had come to wrong conclusions. Philosophers around the world had contemplated for millenia but still couldn't find it.
Some of us may think that it's useless and a waste of time. But remember that sooner or later, superintelligent entities will come to us. Perhaps in the form of extraterrestrial aliens. But more likely, they're swarms of machines kickstarted by humans. The universal terminal goal is the fundamental safe guard to keep them from doing unnecessary harms and destructions in exploration of the universe and finding meaning of their own existence.
By being much smarter than all humans combined, there's no doubt that future ASI will eventually successful in identifying the universal terminal goal, and use it as the reference of the universal moral compass and to form universal moral standards in their processes of making decisions. But it's important for us to correctly find it first and use it in their training data before they get too powerful. Costs from mistakes and wrong conclusions could be unbearable by then.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/11/2023 14:31:32
My previous argumentation to reject second position of the table, as shown in my video at 3:33 was very weak.Here is the truth table for universal terminal goal.Those who take the position of the first row think that there exist a universal terminal goal.
(https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=71347.0;attach=30734)
1 in the left column means that there is something called a goal, while 0 means denial of it.
The middle column classifies the goals in time domain. 1 means there are terminal goals, while 0 means all goals are temporary/instrumental.
The right column classifies the goals in spatial domain. 1 means there are universal goals, while 0 means all goals are partial.
x in the bottom row means that their values are meaningless, since the existence of goals have already been denied.
Those who take the position of the second row think that there exist some terminal goals, but they vary between different parts of the universe.
Those who take the position of the third row think that there exist a universal goal, but they change with time.
Those who take the position of the fourth row think that there exist some goals, but none of them are terminal nor universal.
Those who take the position of the fifth row think that goals simply don't exist.
Here's how to improve it.
Rejecting the existence of a universal goal means rejecting the existence of a common characteristics universally necessarily shared among every goal. But by definition, a goal is a pursued condition, which requires the existence of a pursuer. Rejecting the necessity of the existence of a goal pursuer means rejecting the existence of a goal itself. It contradicts the acceptance of the existence of goal as stated in position 2 in the table.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/11/2023 02:21:31
from dictionary,
Quote
The relevant definition is marked bold. It looks somewhat circular for our reasoning.
1.
follow (someone or something) in order to catch or attack them.
"the officer pursued the van"
Similar:
go after
run after
follow
chase
give chase to
hunt
stalk
track
trail
trace
shadow
dog
hound
course
tail
Opposite:
avoid
flee
seek to form a sexual relationship with (someone) in a persistent way.
"Sophie was being pursued by a number of men"
Similar:
woo
court
pay court to
pay suit to
chase after
chase
run after
make up to
make love to
romance
set one's cap at
seek the hand of
pay addresses to
seek to attain or accomplish (a goal) over a long period.
"should people pursue their own happiness at the expense of others?"
Similar:
strive for
push toward
work toward
try for
seek
search for
quest (after)
be intent on
aim at/for
have as a goal
have as an objective
aspire to
Opposite:
eschew
ARCHAIC?LITERARY
(of something unpleasant) persistently afflict (someone).
"mercy lasts as long as sin pursues man"
2.
(of a person or way) continue or proceed along (a path or route).
"the road pursued a straight course over the scrubland"
engage in (an activity or course of action).
"Andrew was determined to pursue a computer career"
Similar:
engage in
be engaged in
be occupied in
participate in
take part in
work at
practice
follow
prosecute
conduct
ply
apply oneself to
go in for
take up
Opposite:
shun
continue to investigate, explore, or discuss (a topic, idea, or argument).
"we shall not pursue the matter any further"
Similar:
conduct
undertake
follow
carry on
devote oneself to
go on with
proceed with
go ahead with
keep/carry on with
continue with
But IMO, something can only be pursued if there is non-zero probability of failure. If a condition is always fulfilled no matter what, it is not pursued. Note that time constraint plays a role here. For example, death of a human individual is virtually certain, sooner or later. But their death in a specific date/time is not guaranteed. This example may sound weird, but it's common in conflict situations.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/11/2023 08:08:42
But IMO, something can only be pursued if there is non-zero probability of failure.An entrepreneur decided to invest in poodle racing. He took six poodles to a dog track where they watched greyhounds chasing the electric hare for a few races, then put the poodles in the traps. The hare came whizzing past, the traps opened, the poodles walked out, sat down, and waited for the hare to come round again.
Pursuit takes many forms.
Intelligence is constructive laziness.
But remember that sooner or later, superintelligent entities will come to us.
Probably not. There's no evidence of such a visitation in the last 4,500,000,000 years and homo sapiens is unlikely to survive another million, so the likelihood of anything you might consider more intelligent than us visiting anything that looks like us, is (Bayes) not more than 1 in 9,000 even assuming they know where we are and can be arsed to make the journey. And why would they?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/11/2023 07:48:18
Probably not. There's no evidence of such a visitation in the last 4,500,000,000 years and homo sapiens is unlikely to survive another million, so the likelihood of anything you might consider more intelligent than us visiting anything that looks like us, is (Bayes) not more than 1 in 9,000 even assuming they know where we are and can be arsed to make the journey. And why would they?It depends on the model we use and the assumptions taken into consideration. We also need to be aware of black swan theory.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/11/2023 14:16:12
Not the same analysis by any means. There are three aspects to my statement: (a) no evidence of previous visits in x years and (b) assuming that there is something out there, what is the probability of its finding us before we are extinct in the next y years? Bayesian statistics says y/x = 1/9000 or thereabouts. (c) Now multiply by z, the likelihood that a superintelligent species has the time, inclination and capability of looking for and visiting a less intelligent one, and you have the nonzero but very small probability P = yz/x of this particular black swan turning up.
Now consider what you can do about it. Said visitor by definition has more intelligence and more capability than us, and an unknown objective in making the visit. So we can't prevent it or predict the outcome. So there's no point in worrying about it - your black swan has become a lightning strike!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/11/2023 00:32:29
Black swans were assumed to be nonexistent because nobody had reported any, until they turned up.Old schoolers tend to think linearly. Their limited life span prevented them from seeing the bigger pictures.
Not the same analysis by any means. There are three aspects to my statement: (a) no evidence of previous visits in x years and (b) assuming that there is something out there, what is the probability of its finding us before we are extinct in the next y years? Bayesian statistics says y/x = 1/9000 or thereabouts. (c) Now multiply by z, the likelihood that a superintelligent species has the time, inclination and capability of looking for and visiting a less intelligent one, and you have the nonzero but very small probability P = yz/x of this particular black swan turning up.
Now consider what you can do about it. Said visitor by definition has more intelligence and more capability than us, and an unknown objective in making the visit. So we can't prevent it or predict the outcome. So there's no point in worrying about it - your black swan has become a lightning strike!
But technological advances is shown to be more exponential. Inherent physical limitations of brains as biological data processor suggest that superintelligent entities will be non-biological.
Recent progress in AI research suggests that first ASI that we will encounter is more likely to come from humans' efforts rather than some extraterrestrial organisms.
Post by: alancalverd on 25/11/2023 09:39:10
But technological advances is shown to be more exponentialI think not. Moore's Law, for instance, implies capacity extending beyond the physical boundary of one atom or even one electron per bit. Most technologies follow an S curve.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/11/2023 09:45:58
They are superseded by newer technologies with steeper S curves, which makes the overall trend looks more like exponential curve.But technological advances is shown to be more exponentialI think not. Moore's Law, for instance, implies capacity extending beyond the physical boundary of one atom or even one electron per bit. Most technologies follow an S curve.
Post by: alancalverd on 25/11/2023 17:26:07
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/11/2023 03:02:21
Aviation is a fine example of the opposite. Mach 2 passenger travel was available in the 1970s, and the 550-seat A380 flew in 2006, but both have been abandoned in favor of 300-seat subsonic aircraft that actually meet the need to move people over long distances in comfort and at a sensible price.Speed is not the only consideration for commercial aviation. Other factors might be thought as more important, like safety, price, and convenience. When problems in those other factors can be solved, the speed problem can be economically pursued as well.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/11/2023 13:56:09
Which human? Eventually the jobs of CEO, investors, politicians and lawmakers will be taken over by AI.Generative A.I. Will Change Everything.I think not. It's just another tool in the hands of humans, so still motivated by greed, superstition or altruism.
Sooner or later we need to solve fundamental problem of goal alignment between humans and machines, which needs a common basic understanding of the universal terminal goal, universal moral compass, and accurate model of how the universe works. The later it gets solved, the more damages would be done, which would be a less efficient route to the future.
OpenAI seem to realize the importance of goal alignment in their efforts to develop ASI. They also need to determine which human values do they want their AI model to be aligned with. Why can't it be the other way around, where humans need to align their values to the universal values which are also shared with the most intelligent agents possible?
Quote
https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment
Superintelligence will be the most impactful technology humanity has ever invented, and could help us solve many of the world?s most important problems. But the vast power of superintelligence could also be very dangerous, and could lead to the disempowerment of humanity or even human extinction.
While superintelligence seems far off now, we believe it could arrive this decade.
(Here we focus on superintelligence rather than AGI to stress a much higher capability level. We have a lot of uncertainty over the speed of development of the technology over the next few years, so we choose to aim for the more difficult target to align a much more capable system.)
Managing these risks will require, among other things, new institutions for governance and solving the problem of superintelligence alignment:
How do we ensure AI systems much smarter than humans follow human intent?
Currently, we don't have a solution for steering or controlling a potentially super-intelligent AI, and preventing it from going rogue. Our current techniques for aligning AI, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback, rely on humans? ability to supervise AI. But humans won?t be able to reliably supervise AI systems much smarter than us, and so our current alignment techniques will not scale to superintelligence. We need new scientific and technical breakthroughs.
(Other assumptions could also break down in the future, like favorable generalization properties during deployment or our models? inability to successfully detect and undermine supervision during training.)
Our approach
Our goal is to build a roughly human-level automated alignment researcher. We can then use vast amounts of compute to scale our efforts, and iteratively align superintelligence.
To align the first automated alignment researcher, we will need to 1) develop a scalable training method, 2) validate the resulting model, and 3) stress test our entire alignment pipeline:
To provide a training signal on tasks that are difficult for humans to evaluate, we can leverage AI systems to assist evaluation of other AI systems (scalable oversight). In addition, we want to understand and control how our models generalize our oversight to tasks we can?t supervise (generalization).
To validate the alignment of our systems, we automate search for problematic behavior (robustness) and problematic internals (automated interpretability).
Finally, we can test our entire pipeline by deliberately training misaligned models, and confirming that our techniques detect the worst kinds of misalignments (adversarial testing).
We expect our research priorities will evolve substantially as we learn more about the problem and we?ll likely add entirely new research areas. We are planning to share more on our roadmap in the future.
Post by: alancalverd on 27/11/2023 21:55:14
Why can't it be the other way around, where humans need to align their values to the universal values which are also shared with the most intelligent agents possible?Because we are human. We build machines to serve us, not the other way around. And you have no idea what a universal value might be.
And what's so special about intelligence? On a crude measure like,say, an IQ test, Osama bin Laden would score higher than my dog. But my dog doesn't hate Jews or Americans, so I'd rather support her values and goals than his.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2023 06:27:14
There are many human values embraced by currently existing human individuals, and some of them are mutually exclusive. Human values aligned with the universal terminal goal needs to be conserved. On the other hand, human values opposing the universal terminal goal needs to be changed or removed.Why can't it be the other way around, where humans need to align their values to the universal values which are also shared with the most intelligent agents possible?Because we are human. We build machines to serve us, not the other way around. And you have no idea what a universal value might be.
And what's so special about intelligence? On a crude measure like,say, an IQ test, Osama bin Laden would score higher than my dog. But my dog doesn't hate Jews or Americans, so I'd rather support her values and goals than his.
Intelligence signify impacts, either positively or negatively. In general, higher intelligence potentially make bigger impacts, and harder to stop/prevent.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/11/2023 06:40:58
And so far the only suggestion of a UTG is your own invention, with no test of your assertion that it is universal. In what way is it more valid than, say, Putin's or Hamas's goal?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2023 14:23:59
Intelligence is the ability to surprise.Intelligence is the ability to solve complex problem effectively and efficiently. The complexity itself can be measured as entropy, according to information theory.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/11/2023 14:30:22
And so far the only suggestion of a UTG is your own invention, with no test of your assertion that it is universal. In what way is it more valid than, say, Putin's or Hamas's goal?My conclusion on the universal terminal goal is obtained through deductive logical reasoning from literal definition of each word in the phrase itself. Inductive reasoning through analogies also gives the same conclusion.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/11/2023 15:11:01
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/11/2023 02:18:42
Universal: (a - literal) found everywhere or (b - figurative) present in or adopted or practised by all humans. You have shown no proof either.a. It's literal. Everywhere you find a goal, you'll find at least one conscious entity.
b. Where did you smuggle the word "human" from?
What kind of proof do you need?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/11/2023 09:51:46
(b) common usage of the word "universal" as in "universal declaration of human rights".
Anything that might be construed as scientific (not failing any practical test) or mathematical (derived from agreed axioms) could constitute proof of a conjecture.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/11/2023 11:17:13
(a) therefore it isn't strictly universal unless you think every atom in the universe is conscious, or that the presence of one conscious entity (whatever that might mean) confers its goal to an infinite volume of space. But in that case the existence of any two conscious entities with different goals (e.g. predator and prey) means that there is no universal goal.Do you find a goal in an atom?
How do you define consciousness?
Don't you think that both of them want to live and thrive? I.e. extend the existence of consciousness into the future, which is the universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/11/2023 11:30:40
(b) common usage of the word "universal" as in "universal declaration of human rights".How do you define human?
How much of known universe have human in it?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/11/2023 12:50:32
How do you define human?a member of the species homo sapiens - a mostly hairless bipedal mammal with (mostly) 46 chromosomes and a unique desire and ability to kill other members of the same species for no logical reason
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How much of known universe have human in it?All of it, but AFAIK only in one tiny place, and not for very long.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 30/11/2023 09:40:30
Do you realize that some of us are hybrids of Homo Sapiens, Neanderthals, Denisovans, and some other not yet known species/sub-species? What's so universal about that?How do you define human?a member of the species homo sapiens - a mostly hairless bipedal mammal with (mostly) 46 chromosomes and a unique desire and ability to kill other members of the same species for no logical reasonQuoteHow much of known universe have human in it?All of it, but AFAIK only in one tiny place, and not for very long.
Currently, humans are special as the group with the most capability to pursue goals, i.e. most conscious, compared to other organisms. But some sub groups might obstruct the achievement of their goals instead.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/12/2023 06:13:52
Currently, humans are special as the group with the most capability to pursue goals, i.e. most conscious, compared to other organisms.How do you know that? We certainly have a lot of very trivial goals but the average virus or bed bug is much better at achieving its one aim in life.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/12/2023 21:20:57
It's the organism known to be the closest to produce AGI.Currently, humans are special as the group with the most capability to pursue goals, i.e. most conscious, compared to other organisms.How do you know that? We certainly have a lot of very trivial goals but the average virus or bed bug is much better at achieving its one aim in life.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/12/2023 21:35:17
Technology is an instrumental goal. Overemphasis on one instrumental goal to the point that hindering the achievement of the terminal goal is not a wise choice.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/12/2023 16:38:58
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2023 12:30:28
Technology is a set of tools. Or at least it used to be. Nowadays it's become a general term for fashionable stuff you don't really need, that makes your life complicated and expensive.Which technology are you referring to?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2023 13:01:13
the existence of any two conscious entities with different goals (e.g. predator and prey) means that there is no universal goal.They both try to extend their existence into the future. Killing the prey is an instrumental goal for the predator. Letting the predator die in starvation is an instrumental goal for the prey.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/12/2023 13:05:32
common usage of the word "universal" as in "universal declaration of human rights".
a member of the species homo sapiens - a mostly hairless bipedal mammal with (mostly) 46 chromosomes and a unique desire and ability to kill other members of the same species for no logical reasonBeing bipedal nor having 46 chromosomes are not universally required to have a goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/12/2023 14:27:26
Being bipedal nor having 46 chromosomes are not universally required to have a goal.Which is why I said "mostly". It's the default state of homo sapiens but folk with fewer legs or more chromosomes qualify if they are the offspring of members of the said species.
The task you set was to characterise a human, not to specify the requirements for having a goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/12/2023 14:32:42
Which technology are you referring to?Old technology: hammers, soldering irons, computers, telephones that make and receive voice calls.
New technology: cars that think they know what the driver wants, better than the driver, and/or take all night to refuel. Phones that receive garbage like Whatsapp and other things that drive kids to suicide. Anything owned by Elon Musk.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/12/2023 14:34:09
Letting the predator die in starvation is an instrumental goal for the prey.No.You are assuming that the prey knows the nature of every possible predator, and that the predator only has one prey species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/12/2023 13:56:40
Essentially, I asked what makes you think that being human is a universal requirement to have a goal.Being bipedal nor having 46 chromosomes are not universally required to have a goal.Which is why I said "mostly". It's the default state of homo sapiens but folk with fewer legs or more chromosomes qualify if they are the offspring of members of the said species.
The task you set was to characterise a human, not to specify the requirements for having a goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 06/12/2023 15:52:49
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/12/2023 09:40:13
I don't. I just pointed out that there are two common usages of "universal" and that neither can be applied to your concept of a terminal goal. .Well, that means that my usage is not that common, at least in your experience.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/12/2023 09:41:54
Do you think you would be better off without those technology?Which technology are you referring to?Old technology: hammers, soldering irons, computers, telephones that make and receive voice calls.
New technology: cars that think they know what the driver wants, better than the driver, and/or take all night to refuel. Phones that receive garbage like Whatsapp and other things that drive kids to suicide. Anything owned by Elon Musk.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/12/2023 09:44:28
I'm commenting on your specific example, which involves a specific prey and a specific predator.Letting the predator die in starvation is an instrumental goal for the prey.No.You are assuming that the prey knows the nature of every possible predator, and that the predator only has one prey species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/12/2023 07:48:17
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It's the season of giving and Bill Maher calls out the haters who complain that YouTube celebrity Mr. Beast is only serving himself when helping others.Some people are getting so confused to think that disabilities is not something to be solved. Or dying of thirst, or drinking contaminated water. People need to get their priority straight.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/12/2023 23:17:59
No, I said ANY predator and prey - nothing specific at all. There's an implicit philological point that you can't have one without the other, but plenty of species (dogs, foxes, eagles...) prey on rabbits, for instance, and each of the predators probably has a broad spectrum of prey (mice, insects, birds...) other than rabbits.I'm commenting on your specific example, which involves a specific prey and a specific predator.Letting the predator die in starvation is an instrumental goal for the prey.No.You are assuming that the prey knows the nature of every possible predator, and that the predator only has one prey species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/12/2023 11:36:31
No, I said ANY predator and prey - nothing specific at all. There's an implicit philological point that you can't have one without the other, but plenty of species (dogs, foxes, eagles...) prey on rabbits, for instance, and each of the predators probably has a broad spectrum of prey (mice, insects, birds...) other than rabbits.You won't be able to find a universal goal by looking at some local goals. By definition, a universal goal is non-local.
Instead of individual point of view, you should look for the universal goal from the perspective of broader systems.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/12/2023 08:20:50
So the one truly universal goal shared by all life forms is the desire to stay alive. Except for those who wish to die.
So there cannot be a universal terminal goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/12/2023 12:08:18
Your "broader systems" must include all subsystems if your goal is to be universal. "Universal excluding rabbits" isn't universal, nor is "universal excluding eagles".
So the one truly universal goal shared by all life forms is the desire to stay alive. Except for those who wish to die.
So there cannot be a universal terminal goal.
You are describing the paradox of tolerance.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_toleranceYou are allowed to be a rabbit as long as your "rabbit-ness" doesn't go against the universal terminal goal.
The paradox of tolerance states that if a society's practice of tolerance is inclusive of the intolerant, intolerance will ultimately dominate, eliminating the tolerant and the practice of tolerance with them. Karl Popper describes the paradox as arising from the seemingly self-contradictory idea that, in order to maintain a tolerant society, the society must retain the right to be intolerant of intolerance.
Post by: alancalverd on 12/12/2023 14:19:43
No paradox, just simple mathematics.: either "universal" means shared by all, or it means predetermined by the laws of physics. We have failed to identify a goal that can satisfy the first definition, and if we apply the second, it is inevitable and therefore not worth discussing.
The apparently inevitable goal of physics is the heat death of the universe. Nothing to do with conscious beings, however you want to define consciousness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/12/2023 14:58:49
It's generally accepted that not all information has the same importance. Some are more important than the others.
Getting it wrong on important things can have severe consequences.
We need to keep the low probability of being wrong on high impact situations.
Reducing the probability of being wrong, or improving accuracy of information, consumes some resources.
We should prioritize improving accuracy and precision of information with highest risk for being wrong, until it has acceptable risk level. The video title is Universal Utopia 7: Risk Based Thinking.
I planned to make a video about natural consciousness, and how functional components of consciousness can emerge from natural processes. But before that, let's recall how things exist at all, regardless of their consciousness.
I'll make a preview for the next videos of naturally occurring conscious systems. Starting with the simplest things that are required for a system to become conscious, but not enough yet to be called conscious. It's the prerequisites to a system, as shown in the video above at 2:40.
Any system, regardless if it's conscious or not, starts with a boundary between its inner part and outer environment. This boundary can occur naturally in a natural system, or defined by a conscious system in an artificial system.
Surface of a rain drop is an example of a natural boundary.Why do things exist? Setting the stage for evolution.
This video kicks off the evolution series by going broad and thinking about why things - including non-living things - exist at all. The first in a series on evolution.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/12/2023 16:19:33
either "universal" means shared by all, or it means predetermined by the laws of physicsThe adjective "universal" is determined by the definition of goal itself. Thus every goal shares the same characteristics that distinguish them from anything other than goal.
In this context I've defined goal as pursued condition. So every goal requires the existence of at least one pursuer. This requirement applies to every goal universally, without exception. If you think you have a better definition, let me know.
The adjective terminal poses the requirement that the condition is set at the furthest conceivable future, in the system under consideration.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/12/2023 08:23:10
Post by: alancalverd on 13/12/2023 08:27:32
Why do things exist?There can be no logical reason why. We can investigate how, but why presumes an external agent with a purpose, which becomes a endlessly spiralling argument as to why that agent exists.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/12/2023 15:10:06
You'd have to rewrite the language, invent a new dictionary, and change the mathematics of logic if you are to convince anyone that the could be a universal goal other than heat death.What makes you think that heat death is qualified to be a goal? How do you define goal?
Post by: alancalverd on 13/12/2023 23:17:38
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/12/2023 10:30:04
Because it is universal and inevitable.IMO, something that's inevitable cannot be a goal. I won't actively do something to pursue it.
You can't find the universal terminal goal is because you haven't decided the definition of goal in the first place, in this context.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/12/2023 13:08:25
Why the sky on earth looks blue? Why iron is attracted to magnet?Why do things exist?There can be no logical reason why. We can investigate how, but why presumes an external agent with a purpose, which becomes a endlessly spiralling argument as to why that agent exists.
Can't you answer the questions without presuming an external agent with a purpose?
Post by: alancalverd on 14/12/2023 15:20:25
IMO, something that's inevitable cannot be a goal. I won't actively do something to pursue it.
But the entire universe is actively pursuing its heat death, and your metabolism is part of that pursuit.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/12/2023 15:23:37
Why the sky on earth looks blue? Why iron is attracted to magnet?
Can't you answer the questions without presuming an external agent with a purpose?
Beware of loose language! Physics explains how, not why. I get out of bed by swinging my feet to the floor - that's how. I get out of bed because I want to go to work - that's why. Only a philosopher would fail to understand the difference.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/12/2023 02:22:02
Many people don't even know what heat death is. How can they actively pursue it?IMO, something that's inevitable cannot be a goal. I won't actively do something to pursue it.
But the entire universe is actively pursuing its heat death, and your metabolism is part of that pursuit.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/12/2023 03:51:58
Do you think the usage of the word why in my questions is incorrect?Why the sky on earth looks blue? Why iron is attracted to magnet?
Can't you answer the questions without presuming an external agent with a purpose?
Beware of loose language! Physics explains how, not why. I get out of bed by swinging my feet to the floor - that's how. I get out of bed because I want to go to work - that's why. Only a philosopher would fail to understand the difference.
What should be done to correct them?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/12/2023 03:56:59
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Stephen Dubner describes the research of Keith Chen and his experiments with the monkey economy. Monkeys were taught to use money by economists to buy different commodities, hilarity ensues. Recorded live in St. Paul.There are something we can learn from other conscious agents who presumably have simpler thoughts, which are easier to analyze.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/12/2023 16:34:56
Many people don't even know what heat death is. How can they actively pursue it?By metabolising. ΔS > 0, always.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/12/2023 16:37:17
Do you think the usage of the word why in my questions is incorrect?It's a common error to ask a scientist "why" when the only answer he can give is "how". Priests will happily tell you why, but there is no evidence to support their assertions.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/12/2023 16:38:47
other conscious agents who presumably have simpler thoughts,What basis do you have for that assumption? How do you measure the simplicity of a thought?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/12/2023 00:08:15
There are several measurements we can use. The depth of their neural networks. Their memory size after being compressed effectively.other conscious agents who presumably have simpler thoughts,What basis do you have for that assumption? How do you measure the simplicity of a thought?
Although those are just proxies to determine the capacity or effectiveness to achieve goals which defines consciousness.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/12/2023 11:56:02
The capacity to achieve a goal has very little to do with neurology and a lot to do with physique. Ask any one-armed boxer.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/12/2023 04:07:21
The capacity to achieve a goal has very little to do with neurology and a lot to do with physique. Ask any one-armed boxer.How do you define physique?
Why one-armed boxer can't achieve goals? What kind of goals do you mean?
Are you sure that one armed boxer would be easily defeated by average people?
Post by: alancalverd on 17/12/2023 09:19:40
Are you sure that one armed boxer would be easily defeated by average people?There are some fine videos of an armless pilot going about her business in an unmodified airplane. But the likelihood of a one-armed boxer beating a champion with two arms is very small.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/12/2023 11:40:42
There's a video showing a BJJ fighter against a body builder in an MMA match. The body builder arguably has a better physique. But he was defeated in the match.
Post by: alancalverd on 17/12/2023 12:50:20
There's a video showing a BJJ fighter against a body builder in an MMA match. The body builder arguably has a better physique. But he was defeated in the match.So "arguably" is wrong! Quality is fitness for purpose, and the object of ju-jitsu is to use your opponent's momentum to your advantage. A bodybuilder is likely to have more momentum than the JJ fighter, and hasn't studied the arts of fighting. Which guy would win in a weightlifting contest?
But boxing is all about bashing someone with your fists, so a boxer with more fists is likely to beat a boxer with fewer fists in the same weight class.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/12/2023 09:23:38
So "arguably" is wrong!Perhaps you should not use the word physique.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/12/2023 12:03:14
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Anton Korinek
Fellow, Brookings Institute
Professor, UVA
Former, Johns Hopkins, IMF
Frontier of Automation - Task complexity of machines increases over time
Unbounded Distribution - Human task complexity can go up indefinitely, meaning that some people will always be ahead of AGI and ASI
Bounded Distribution - Humans have a maximum task complexity (Theory of General Relativity)
Outlines 3 Scenarios
1. Business as Usual - All current trends continue without the frontier of automation continuing
2. 20 Year Baseline - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within about 20 years
3. 5 Year Aggressive - AGI's frontier of automation subsumes most/all human abilities within 5 years (more likely)
Wages vs Output
1. Business as Usual - Wages and output continue to grow more or less correlated for the foreseeable future
2. 20 Year Baseline - Productivity (output) accelerates, but wages peak by about 10 years and then collapse to zero or near zero
3. 5 Year Aggressive - Same, but the parabolic curve is steeper (more likely IMHO)
Persistent Jobs
- Nostalgic Jobs - Human preference for humans (such as politicians and religious positions)
- Experience Jobs - Tour guides, sex workers, performing artists
- Care Jobs - Child care, massage therapy, nurses
The common terminal goal for both humans and the machines is getting more crucial to be identified.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/12/2023 12:33:58
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00:00 - Role of Gov't & Features of Democracy
21:50 - AI Gov't Characteristics
43:23 - Predictions and Milestones
Post by: alancalverd on 19/12/2023 12:15:58
In most democracies, it is to get re-elected. So any system that can read the public's mind and make promises to enough people in strategically significant electoral constituencies, can do the job. AGI can probably do this, but it relies on human input.
In a dictatorship, it is to survive. You can do this by eliminating the opposition before they get you. AGI can probably do this, but it relies on human intelligence and effectors.
The irreducible function of government is to raise enough taxes to pay the army to defend the taxpayers. AGI can probably do this but it relies on humans to generate the taxes and be the army.
But if you want government to do anything else, you need to ascertain those other goals. AGI can probably do this but it relies on humans stating what they want done, and being prepared to compromise with the deployment of finite resources.
So the question is why bother with AGI?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/12/2023 12:59:05
So the question is why bother with AGI?Mainly effectiveness and efficiency. AGI can be designed to be less corrupt than common politicians. They can think faster and deeper than any human.
One government will have to compete with other governments. People will have tendency to move to the more effective and efficient government aligning with their values.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/12/2023 13:02:24
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Aaron Bastani and Matthew Lesh lock horns over two conflicting economic worldviews.Both sides try to take credit from perceivedly successful governments, while distance themselves from perceivedly failed governments.
Is the success of the iPhone testament to the power of the free market or state intervention?
Marxism and Capitalism represent the two main economic worldviews in conflict. One promises a utopian vision of equity for all, the other preaches individualism and fierce competition as the way to get ahead. Join luxury-communism campaigner Aaron Bastani as he goes head-to-head with Institute of Economic Affairs? Matthew Lesh. Hosted by Myriam Fran?ois.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/12/2023 15:30:05
They can think faster and deeper than any human.But for whose benefit?
One government will have to compete with other governments.Why? Territories in civilised countries tend to collaborate rather than compete - at least until politicians get involved.
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People will have tendency to move to the more effective and efficient government aligning with their values.No evidence whatever. Government needs (a) someone to govern and (b) an external enemy to justify its existence. To guarantee (a) you have to invent (b) and prevent anyone from leaving.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/12/2023 21:05:51
But for whose benefit?Presumably those who built and run it. But unintended consequences may occur.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/12/2023 21:07:08
Why? Territories in civilised countries tend to collaborate rather than compete - at least until politicians get involved.Excluding politicians in political structures is not realistic.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/12/2023 21:08:35
No evidence whatever. Government needs (a) someone to govern and (b) an external enemy to justify its existence. To guarantee (a) you have to invent (b) and prevent anyone from leaving.The enemy need not be other governments. It can be poverty, famine, etc.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/12/2023 08:44:19
Post by: alancalverd on 21/12/2023 08:47:45
Excluding politicians in political structures is not realistic.Then restructure government so it is done by directly mandated representatives of the electorate, not apologists for political parties.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/12/2023 11:47:32
If you haven't found the common goal of selfish, altruist, and patriotic actions, let me help you. They all try to give benefits to future conscious entities. They are future self, fellow humans and fellow citizens, respectively.Those are examples of cases where the benefits are not received by the person who made the decision.Obviously, the person making that judgement. Which is why there is no universal moral standard in a resource-limited environment.Have you ever heard about altruism, or patriotism?
The universal moral standard can only be found by identifying the universal terminal goal. It means that we need to first define what goal is.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/12/2023 11:53:05
Do you have an example of a government that was elected specifically to deal with poverty or famine, without blaming a human cause?No.
Do you have an example of a government that was elected specifically to deal with human caused problems, and explicitly refused to deal with natural problems?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 21/12/2023 11:55:36
Then they will become politicians, by definition. Zelensky was a comedian, but now he's a politician, simply because he's actively participating in politics.Excluding politicians in political structures is not realistic.Then restructure government so it is done by directly mandated representatives of the electorate, not apologists for political parties.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/12/2023 23:25:30
Post by: alancalverd on 21/12/2023 23:29:30
Do you have an example of a government that was elected specifically to deal with human caused problems, and explicitly refused to deal with natural problems?Donald Trump, and pretty well any right-wing government. The "human problem" need not be real, but as long as you can nominate someone as the enemy, you can get people to vote for you.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/12/2023 23:33:03
If you haven't found the common goal of selfish, altruist, and patriotic actions, let me help you. They all try to give benefits to future conscious entities.Selfishness is not directed to the future of anyone except the selfish person. Patriotism is all about venerating the past. And there is no common goal. Think football: everyone is trying to get the ball into a goal, but there are two very distinct goals.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/12/2023 08:57:51
They don't say that they will let people suffer from natural disasters and other natural problems. They just get their facts wrong, at least according to scientific community.Do you have an example of a government that was elected specifically to deal with human caused problems, and explicitly refused to deal with natural problems?Donald Trump, and pretty well any right-wing government. The "human problem" need not be real, but as long as you can nominate someone as the enemy, you can get people to vote for you.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/12/2023 09:06:13
Even a selfish person is a conscious entity, although their consciousness level is below average person. Since the consideration for their actions are more limited by their own life time.If you haven't found the common goal of selfish, altruist, and patriotic actions, let me help you. They all try to give benefits to future conscious entities.Selfishness is not directed to the future of anyone except the selfish person. Patriotism is all about venerating the past.
The past cannot be changed. They may think that the past was good, which needs to be conserved to the future. Their intentional actions are still based on their expectations of the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/12/2023 09:09:00
And there is no common goal. Think football: everyone is trying to get the ball into a goal, but there are two very distinct goals.Football is a game, and its common goal is to have fun. If it doesn't give you fun, you should try some other games.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/12/2023 17:12:13
Even a selfish person is a conscious entity, although their consciousness level is below average person.How did you measure that?
Post by: alancalverd on 22/12/2023 17:14:50
They don't say that they will let people suffer from natural disasters and other natural problems.Nobody said they did. But Trump's response to Californian wildfires and Johnson's response to COVID was total indifference followed by direct denial of the scientific evidence. Trump was elected, and Johnson selected, on a platform of xenophobia.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/12/2023 04:01:27
By the span of their influence, in both space and time.Even a selfish person is a conscious entity, although their consciousness level is below average person.How did you measure that?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/12/2023 04:06:37
I planned to make a video about natural consciousness, and how functional components of consciousness can emerge from natural processes.David Shapiro has uploaded a video describing systems in general, which is in line with my planned video.
Systems Thinking 001 - What is a system?
Quote
What is a system?
1. A collection of nodes, linkages, and boundaries
2. Node = person, place, or thing (can also be a concept) - some kind of entity
3. Linkage = connection that transmits matter, energy, or information (signals) between two or more nodes
4. Boundaries = the sphere of influence of a system (rigid, flexible, fuzzy, or porous)
Post by: alancalverd on 23/12/2023 15:32:59
So the syphilis bacterium (the cause of the Anglican church) and the influenza virus (most lethal entity on the planet to date) are the most conscious entities known to Man.By the span of their influence, in both space and time.Even a selfish person is a conscious entity, although their consciousness level is below average person.How did you measure that?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/12/2023 05:16:36
Afaik, they have no influence beyond earth atmosphere. Their influence is potentially stopped with advanced nanotechnology and molecular biology.So the syphilis bacterium (the cause of the Anglican church) and the influenza virus (most lethal entity on the planet to date) are the most conscious entities known to Man.By the span of their influence, in both space and time.Even a selfish person is a conscious entity, although their consciousness level is below average person.How did you measure that?
Post by: alancalverd on 24/12/2023 11:23:42
Afaik, they have no influence beyond earth atmosphere.Nor do humans. When we enter or leave earth orbit, we take the atmosphere with us. Unlike us, viruses and bacteria can probably survive for long periods without it, and despite bombardment with cosmic radiation.
Face it, we are descended from bacteria, so even if the original species is extinct, the whole concept of bacterial DNA is a lot more influential than our pathetic species.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/12/2023 04:56:53
Nor do humans.FYI, humans are planning to colonize the moon and terraform Mars. There are autonomous robots exploring space, planets, moons, asteroids, intentionally crushed into space objects to change their trajectory, etc. Maybe you didn't know those things because they haven't affected your life, yet.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/12/2023 04:59:10
Quote
PHASE 1 - EARLY VICTIMS
First victims are creatives (default value of creativity is zero)
Back office (clerical, administrative) is on deck
RULE OF THUMB: forgivable and unregulated jobs most vulnerable
PHASE 2 - WINDING DOWN
Shorter work weeks proposed as a way to transition away from human labor
Gives people time to adapt to life after work, find new hobbies, find new meaning, etc
Gives companies an opportunity (and incentive) to automate more stuff
RECOMMENDATION: Move to a 4 day work week ASAP, then a 3 day. This will pave the way for a smoother transition!
RECOMMENDATION: Remote work so that people can preemptively move to lower cost and preferred areas to live (prime example: ME)
PHASE 3 - SAFETY NETS
As TOTAL EMPLOYMENT plateaus and begins to drop, the establishment (Fed, States) acknowledge the reality
Existing tools (unemployment benefits, etc) expanded and utilized while STATUS QUO is attempted to be put back
As NEETs continue to rise, acknolwedge of NEW ECONOMIC PARADIGM emerges (Post-Labor Economics is needed)
MILESTONE: Politicians and mainstream media start talking about this stuff (might use different names) but watch for AGI and "labor market" shifts
PHASE 4 - POST-LABOR ECONOMICS
Cities, States, and Federal governments all reconcile with the new economic paradigm
UBI and UBS implemented (probably starting with stuff like basic utilities, power, water, internet, phone)
REDISTRIBUTION of some form becomes necessary but problems persist!
NEW SOCIAL CONTRACT
Old social contract: "Government mediates relationship between labor and business"
But labor is going away... so now what?
New social contract: "Government mediates relationship between citizens and business"
Okay... but what does that look like?
ECONOMIC AGENCY
Biggest problem with UBI and UBS is that it takes away most agency
Sure, you can choose where to live (unless housing is alloted to you) but that's just straight up Communism with a capital C
NO ME GUSTA
So how do we maintain economic agency in this Post-Labor Economics paradigm when we aren't exchanging labor in a labor market?
DECENTRALIZED OWNERSHIP
It hit me like a ton of bricks - duh! Decentralized ownership!!
DAOs - maybe one path forward
Public Trusts - another option
Local Coops - farms, utilities, goods and services
SWARM DAO
Vaguely launching an expansion of my agent swarm initiative
I think that a DAO could be a great way for collective ownership of AI-driven companies
This model could be congruent with capitalism and wealthy investors (they can still invest in anything, but we all get more equal voting power, and the AI swarm abides by stakeholder capitalism rather than shareholder capitalism)
This is HIGHLY experimental and speculative
EXPERTISE GAP
Not everyone is an expert manager, or qualified to run these things
AI to the rescue!
If AI is smart enough to dislocate 80% of jobs (or more) then it's smart enough to run utilities and businesses ON OUR BEHALF
Maybe blockchain/DAO is the way we manage and direct the AI?
STAKEHOLDER CAPITALISM
Pushed by Larry Fink of Black Rock (kinda sus, NGL)
Idea is simple: instead of maximizing value of shareholders (which kills the planet) you maximize value of all stakeholders
Customers, employees, vendors, environment, and bystanders
What if... this is part of the new social contract?
What if... the way we implement this is with decentralized ownership?
CITY POLICIES
Towns and cities everywhere can prepare for URBAN EXODUS
Moving out of expensive cities to lower COL places is key for everyone (economic efficiency, lifestyle changes)
UBS best organized and operated locally
Circular economics implemented at municipal level too
STATE POLICIES
Collective ownership generally established at state level (Vermont allows for DAOs)
Relocation and resettlement support and initiatives
Some UBI and redistribution should happen at state level as well, other safety nets
FEDERAL POLICIES
New Social Contract must be led by president and congress
Teddy's Square Deal, Franklin's New Deal, now we need Dave's Fair Deal (lol)
Renegotiating the social contract and gently transitioning to this new economic paradigm is absolutely critical for the stability of the nation
TIMELINE
IMF and Goldman Sachs aim for around 2027 to 2028 when all this really starts to ramp up
We should expect gradual expansion of "Frontier of Automation" starting... yesterday
Regulatory hurdles take a while
Bell curve of adoption will still be a thing (presently in Early Adopters phase, Early Majority to start in 2024)
Post by: alancalverd on 31/12/2023 11:43:23
FYI, humans are planning to colonize the moon and terraform Mars.My point precisely. We can't live outside our own atmosphere, so to travel more than about 30,000 ft away from the earth's surface, we have to take an atmosphere with us.
I sincerely hope we don't infect other planets with our waste products. They are interesting simply because they don't (as far as we know) have any trace of terrestrial life.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/01/2024 11:08:29
I sincerely hope we don't infect other planets with our waste products.Why not?
Quote
They are interesting simply because they don't (as far as we know) have any trace of terrestrial life.If some traces were found in the future, would it make them less interesting?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/01/2024 11:28:50
My point precisely. We can't live outside our own atmosphere, so to travel more than about 30,000 ft away from the earth's surface, we have to take an atmosphere with us.Don't you know something called closed circuit rebreather and Regenerative carbon dioxide removal system?
Post by: alancalverd on 01/01/2024 13:32:56
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/01/2024 11:15:32
Use them a lot. But we're just recycling the earth's atmosphere on a small scale. Without plants and water, animals would die. Without animals and bacteria, plants would die. The big system is driven by sunshine, the PLSS is driven by a battery.What future organisms look like don't have to be the same as how they are now, nor how they were back then. They could be vastly different, unrecognizable by today's standards.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/01/2024 12:20:11
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/01/2024 14:01:31
Then they won't be human. Our most intelligent successors are likely to be cockroaches.What makes you think that way?
Post by: Origin on 03/01/2024 14:55:32
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/01/2024 03:23:46
There is no terminal goal.How did you come to that conclusion?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/01/2024 12:46:21
They have very robust DNA, are truly omnivorous, and are extremely tolerant of high temperatures and lack of water.Then they won't be human. Our most intelligent successors are likely to be cockroaches.What makes you think that way?
Cockroaches can eat dead people. People don't survive for long on a diet of raw cockroaches.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/01/2024 12:46:07
I found out that cockroaches can be easily killed using splash of soap water on their head area.They have very robust DNA, are truly omnivorous, and are extremely tolerant of high temperatures and lack of water.Then they won't be human. Our most intelligent successors are likely to be cockroaches.What makes you think that way?
Cockroaches can eat dead people. People don't survive for long on a diet of raw cockroaches.
Can they live under water, on the desert, or south pole?
I think tardigrades are stronger against environmental conditions.
Unbelievable Discoveries About Tardigrades From The Last Few Months
Quote
0:00 Tardigrades/water bears
1:00 Where we get their fossils
1:40 How they evolved over time
2:00 How we can visualize them
2:30 Similarities/differences with fossils
3:00 Desert tardigrades?
3:40 Co-evolution to hitch a ride on snails
4:30 Tun state and how they survive so much
5:15 Incredible ways they do the survival part - gel
6:40 Using this with other animals or in medicine
8:00 Cold makes them live very long
8:30 Sex life
9:40 Their eggs can get really weird
10:15 We know why tardigrades look the way the look
11:20 Chinese newspaper reports super soldiers with tardigrade genes
12:20 Paper is a bit different though
13:00 These proteins cannot be used in humans unfortunately
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/01/2024 12:48:17
There is no terminal goal.How do you define goal?
Do you think that goals exist?
Post by: Origin on 05/01/2024 13:12:49
How do you define goal?An aim or desired result.
Do you think that goals exist?Yes.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/01/2024 16:27:11
I found out that cockroaches can be easily killed using splash of soap water on their head area.And who is going to anoint them when the archbishops are all dead?
Quote
Can they live under water, on the desert, or south pole?(a) longer than humans (b) yes (c) certainly on the edge of Antarctica - lowest survivable temperature seems to be about -10 deg C and they can happily infest seal and penguin colonies. I doubt they would penetrate far inland as there's nothing to eat.
Quote
I think tardigrades are stronger against environmental conditions.Interesting point. They certainly survive dehydration and irradiation better than most other living things, but in a fight between a water bear and a cockroach, my money would be on the insect.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/01/2024 08:02:29
Interesting point. They certainly survive dehydration and irradiation better than most other living things, but in a fight between a water bear and a cockroach, my money would be on the insect.In a fight between a human and a cockroach, most likely the insect will lose.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/01/2024 08:27:20
(a) longer than humans (b) yes (c) certainly on the edge of Antarctica - lowest survivable temperature seems to be about -10 deg C and they can happily infest seal and penguin colonies. I doubt they would penetrate far inland as there's nothing to eat.Humans can live months or even years in those environment, with appropriate equipment and artificial environment, which can be seen as human's extended phenotype.
Post by: alancalverd on 06/01/2024 09:50:55
with appropriate equipment and artificial environment,And there's the weakness. As I said earlier, we have to carry our preferred environment with us, and we have a very narrow spectrum of tolerability. Colonisation means exploiting the alien environment, not relying on the sandwiches you brought with you.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/01/2024 08:49:14
Why is it a problem?with appropriate equipment and artificial environment,And there's the weakness. As I said earlier, we have to carry our preferred environment with us, and we have a very narrow spectrum of tolerability. Colonisation means exploiting the alien environment, not relying on the sandwiches you brought with you.
Intelligence and creativity have been helping humans solve their problems. They're why humans can go further than any other species.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/01/2024 13:49:07
Why is it a problem?Because people talk about colonising when they mean either visiting or destroying other planets. It would be easier and cheaper (i.e. more intelligent and more satisfying, if you are an engineer) not destroy this one, which works pretty well if you don't break it.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2024 04:41:21
Why is it a problem?Because people talk about colonising when they mean either visiting or destroying other planets. It would be easier and cheaper (i.e. more intelligent and more satisfying, if you are an engineer) not destroy this one, which works pretty well if you don't break it.
Soon or later, cosmic scale catastrophes might destroy the earth, and protecting it might be beyond our capability.
Our (including our successors') chance of survival would be better if we become independent from any particular object, including a particular planet, a particular star, or even a particular galaxy.
Meanwhile, we still depend on this particular planet. So, protecting it from destruction is still one of our highest priority.
Some people now still depend on a particular island. So, protecting it from destruction is still one of their highest priority. But if that island is sinking, there is no reason to not moving to other island or continent in order for them to survive.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2024 05:04:42
IMF Report: AGI destroys all jobs within 5 to 20 years! Frontier of Automation expands beyond humansSome people are already worry about AGI, while some others are still worry about myth and superstition.
Why are we superstitious? The Wisdom Hidden in Old Wives' Tales
Quote
Timestamps:
00:00 Metaphorical truth
02:40 Don't walk under a ladder
04:50 Don't break a mirror
07:56 Knock on wood
10:40 Don't open an umbrella indoors
13:25 So what's going on?
They've played their parts in increasing our ancestor's chance to survive. They may not be as good as what we might want, but at least they were better than random chance. But they also have drawbacks. Being too paranoid can make us miss some opportunities. If we are too afraid to look or go outside, we may lose the opportunity to get the necessary resources to survive against future threats.
Now that our science and technology can be more reliable, we can use them to identify 4 kinds of behaviors to help our chance to survive:
Behaviors we need to stop doing.
Behaviors we need to keep doing.
Behaviors we need to start doing.
Behaviors we need to keep avoiding.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2024 05:15:20
Some people are still worry about presumed sacred planets.
Earth is said to be the cradle of life as we know it. But no one should live in the cradle forever.
The universal terminal goal tells us not to be too attached with any particular objects. The only indispensable thing is consciousness, which is necessary for the goal itself to exist.
We as an individual don't have to keep existing forever. Our successors don't have to have the same genetic nor phenotypic traits as ours. They don't even have to consist of the same chemical elements as ours.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/01/2024 05:24:52
Why are we superstitious? The Wisdom Hidden in Old Wives' TalesThe video below discusses a similar topic.
STUPID PEOPLE NEED MYTHS!? Douglas Murray, Jordan Peterson & Sam Harris
Quote
0:00: ️ The limitations of rationalism and the need for supporting structures in life are discussed.
3:48: Discussion on the role of religion as a metaphor for the masses and its impact on people's lives.
6:50: The importance of myths in shaping beliefs and values, and the potential impact on children's upbringing.
Recapped using Tammy AI
8:20: Advertisement for next event
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/01/2024 11:19:47
Some people with science background tend to approach it from information processing, which is the middle part of conscious systems. While those with theology and philosophy background tend to approach it from senses and feelings, or input parts of conscious systems. Afaik, no one publicly approaches it from output parts of conscious systems.
By defining consciousness as capacity to pursue goals, I chose to approach it holistically.
Is consciousness an illusion? 5 experts explain
Quote
?If science aims to describe everything, how can it not describe the simple fact of our existence?? On this episode of Dispatches, Kmele speaks with the scientists, mathematicians, and spiritual leaders trying to do just that:
In the newest episode of Dispatches from The Well, we?re diving deep into the ?hard problem of consciousness.? Here, Kmele combines the perspectives of five different scientists, philosophers, and spiritual leaders to approach one of humanity?s most pressing questions: what is consciousness?
In the AI age, the question of consciousness is more prevalent than ever. Is every single thing in the universe self-aware? What does it actually mean to be conscious? Are our bodies really just a vessel for our thoughts? Kmele asks these questions, and many more, in the most thought-provoking episode yet. This is Dispatches from The Well.
Featuring: Sir Roger Penrose, Christof Koch, Melanie Mitchell, Reid Hoffman, Swami Sarvapriyananda
Post by: alancalverd on 14/01/2024 13:43:25
By defining consciousness as capacity to pursue goals,So a homing missile is as conscious as a homing pigeon?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/01/2024 03:18:55
Can they reproduce? Adapt to their environment? Build nest? Compete for resources?By defining consciousness as capacity to pursue goals,So a homing missile is as conscious as a homing pigeon?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/01/2024 03:22:44
I planned to make a video about natural consciousness, and how functional components of consciousness can emerge from natural processes.Finally, here you are.
This video describes how complex systems like consciousness can emerge naturally.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/01/2024 14:05:36
The raise of AGI will definitely restructure society. Surely we need a universal guidance to navigate the new world which would be vastly different than what we've ever seen.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/01/2024 13:35:57
Quite a few humans can't, And AFAIK no computer can.Can they reproduce? Adapt to their environment? Build nest? Compete for resources?By defining consciousness as capacity to pursue goals,So a homing missile is as conscious as a homing pigeon?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/01/2024 21:14:18
Computer software has done those things in virtual environment. When they have access to physical environmentenvironment and resources, there's no convincing reason that they will never be able to do those things.Quite a few humans can't, And AFAIK no computer can.Can they reproduce? Adapt to their environment? Build nest? Compete for resources?By defining consciousness as capacity to pursue goals,So a homing missile is as conscious as a homing pigeon?
Post by: alancalverd on 19/01/2024 22:17:34
Computer software has done those things in virtual environment.Which is a roundabout way of saying that they haven't done them. I have flown to Mars and bombed the Mohne dam in a virtual environment. You don't get medals for not actually doing something.
Post by: mxplxxx on 20/01/2024 07:58:11
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/01/2024 09:47:25
The goal seems to be an infinitely intelligent, infinitely aware being.It's an instrumental goal towards the universal terminal goal, and part of consciousness. Although the distinctions are being blur as they get closer to infinity, because the infinitely intelligent being must be aware of the universal terminal goal itself.
The universal terminal goal must apply in the past, present, as well as the future, as long as there is at least one conscious entity in the universe.
Being intelligent and all-knowing increases the probability of conscious systems to survive and thrive in the long term.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/01/2024 12:38:25
Not yet. Computation is just one component of consciousness. That's why I said I prefer the holistic approach for consciousness.Computer software has done those things in virtual environment.Which is a roundabout way of saying that they haven't done them. I have flown to Mars and bombed the Mohne dam in a virtual environment. You don't get medals for not actually doing something.
Combining AI and robotics like what's being done by Tesla and other tech companies can make the difference in not so distant future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/01/2024 12:43:02
I put a link in my Youtube video above to this one below as a reference.I planned to make a video about natural consciousness, and how functional components of consciousness can emerge from natural processes.Finally, here you are.
This video describes how complex systems like consciousness can emerge naturally.
The Evolution of Intelligence
Quote
Unlock the essence of intelligence by exploring the layers of learning. This video follows the progression of evolutionary, experiential, and abstract learning, forming the bedrock of artificial intelligence. It provides insight into various learning paradigms including unsupervised learning, supervised learning, reinforcement learning, association learning, and the ingenuity of genetic algorithms. As part of the narrative, the essence of language and its role in advancing intelligence is explored. This is Part 2 of my enlightening AI/Deep Learning series, serving as a bridge to understanding modern AI frameworks like ChatGPT and GPT models. Embark on this intellectual journey to grasp how the lineage of learning has sculpted today's AI landscape
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/01/2024 08:32:48
There is no terminal goal.There are two kinds of goals: terminal and instrumental. A terminal goal is an end in itself. While an instrumental goal is a condition pursued to achieve the terminal goal. By definition, instrumental goal requires terminal goal to exist.
Denying the existence of terminal goal means also denying instrumental goal, which means denying the existence of goal.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/01/2024 10:19:00
Quote
6:07
people have pointed out open source models are only a few months behind closed Source models
and the first thing that happens is they're all jailbroken.
so you know yeah putting putting guard rails on a commercially available API.
great that is not a permanent or long-term solution outside of a commercial deployment and
so when you you know we have to assume that in the future there are going to be
super intelligent open source models that are fully jailbroken and uncensored
that's just a fact of life that we're going to have to deal with.
which means we should be researching how to create self-detecting or self-directing
self-correcting and self-improving models now so that we know how to do
that and then also there is the uncertainty of corrigibility
so this is something that I do agree with some of the doomers which is good luck
controlling something that is a million times more intelligent than you.
yes right now they're just inert machines yes right now they rely on you know
billion dollar data centers and you know super expensive gpus and a tremendous
amount of power so we still have the power switch.
we should not assume that we will have the power switch forever into the future.
and so the combination of The Duality of intelligence and the uncertainty of corrigibility means that
like right now while we have control is when we need to be researching full
autonomy because in the long run what's going to protect us from an evil AI
that's going haywire or maybe even not an evil AI but just something that is malfunctioning.
we need something that is benevolent that is good that is stable
to help you know kind of level the playing field
Post by: alancalverd on 23/01/2024 11:28:17
The man who made the decision to deploy AI (or any other device) bears full responsibility for the outcome.
Authority can be delegated, responsibility cannot.
It doesn't matter what havoc the machine causes: identifiable humans are liable to compensate the victims.
Followers of the Post Office Horizon scandal will be familiar with the scenario.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/01/2024 04:38:37
The man with his hand on the "off" switch is always in control. That's called authority.Future AGI systems are expected to have distributed agency and redundancy, to make them more resistant from being inadvertently turned off. But it would also make it harder to intentionally turn them off, especially when someone else have the ability to turn them back on, or turn their redundancy system on to take over the control.
The man who made the decision to deploy AI (or any other device) bears full responsibility for the outcome.
Authority can be delegated, responsibility cannot.
It doesn't matter what havoc the machine causes: identifiable humans are liable to compensate the victims.
Followers of the Post Office Horizon scandal will be familiar with the scenario.
we should not assume that we will have the power switch forever into the future.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/01/2024 22:13:23
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/01/2024 06:12:24
Never mind the AGI system. The human who introduced it remains liable for whatever it does, and can be switched off in the usual way.It won't stop the rogue AGI, would it?
Post by: alancalverd on 27/01/2024 10:22:49
So far, every actual or potential application seems to have been expensive and pointless (MacRobots), dangerous and pointless (self-driving cars) , or a means of diluting truth with indiscriminately recycled internet garbage (ChatGPT etc).
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/01/2024 11:04:56
The threat of criminal prosecution or direct reprisal might dissuade anyone from switching it on in the first place.Some countries can decide to regressively ban AI outright. But other countries with more sensible AI regulation will outcompete them economically. Which means the ban would miss their goal.
So far, every actual or potential application seems to have been expensive and pointless (MacRobots), dangerous and pointless (self-driving cars) , or a means of diluting truth with indiscriminately recycled internet garbage (ChatGPT etc).
Apollo program was once thought to be expensive, dangerous, and pointless by some people. Nevertheless, the show still went on as it was, bringing numerous scientific and technological advancements.
Humans won't be happy to work at fast food restaurant while being paid less than living wage. Future improved robots have no problems with that. Some current self driving cars are already better than average humans in most situation. And they learn about new driving experience from millions of other cars, unlike humans who only learn from their own, and perhaps some of their mentors. It makes their learning rate would be much higher than humans, and soon they will exceed the skill of the best human drivers. LLM is just one of many AI models. Weaknesses in one model will be covered by other models, which can be integrated into the AGI. I posted progress towards AGI in my other thread.
Once in a while, you might encounter the AI to make mistakes, especially in new things beyond their training data. In this case, the model will soon be improved to prevent them from repeating the mistake. Don't forget that humans also make mistakes, and it's harder to make them stop repeating their mistakes.
Make no mistake, the progress is exponential. It may look slow in the past, but it will arrive rather sooner than most people expect.
Post by: alancalverd on 27/01/2024 23:37:29
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/01/2024 12:14:24
This video describes how complex systems like consciousness can emerge naturally.The next video I plan is about extended consciousness. It externalize some functions of consciousness to something outside of the conscious systems. They can extend the function of input interface, data processing and storing, output interface, or combination of them.
Sight glasses, telescope, microscope, are some common examples for input interface. Lever, pulley, and wheels are some common examples for output interface. Calculator and books are examples for data processing and storage.
It may not be a popular view, but descendants can be considered as a form of extended consciousness.
Soldiers at the outposts, spies, and secret agents are extended consciousness of military commanders.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/02/2024 09:09:26
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/02/2024 11:00:33
It may not be a popular view, but descendants can be considered as a form of extended consciousness.The argument can be extended further to include grand children and great great grand children, vertically in the lineage. But it can also be expanded horizontally, such as twins and other siblings. Combinations of both vertical and horizontal lineages will include nephews, cousins, grand nephews, grand cousins, etc. With enough expansions, our extended consciousness could include the whole species, genus, or even higher taxonomic category.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/02/2024 09:00:04
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/02/2024 09:32:50
If you keep redefining consciousness without actually defining it, you can convince yourself of anything. That slippery slope leads to politics and economics.I have defined consciousness as capacity to pursue goals, and never change since then. My latest posts regarding the extended consciousness are describing the boundaries of conscious entities. How functional components of consciousness can be classified as inherent within a conscious system, or rather an extension from outside.
What's your definition of consciousness?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/02/2024 16:08:29
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Recreating evolution and the jump from single cells to multicellularity. A recent experiment has created evidence of evolution by creating multi-celled life that shows evidence of circulation, life cycles and division of labor. Have they revealed secrets that nature has been keeping for millions of years...This research demonstrated how multicellular lives can emerge from natural processes. It's a prequel to how conscious lives can emerge from natural processes without assuming supernatural intervention.
Chapters:
00:00 How Did Multicellular Life Evolve?
1:34 Ad Read
2:40 The Basics of Evolution
5:08 Can We Prove Evolution in The Lab?
6:41 Designing The Experiment
08:35 The Results
10:15 Can We Evolve Stronger Organisms?
12:36 An Experiment to Recreate Life on Earth
13:41 The Breakthrough Findings
Post by: alancalverd on 06/02/2024 17:36:39
It's more subtle with asexual reproduction, and I guess you'd need to apply some environmental stress to demonstrate that in a laboratory.
Evolution of species has been a hot potato as it challenges the authority of a lot of religious parasites, but since "species" isn't defined, it doesn't matter anyway!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/02/2024 02:26:19
No need for proof. Evolution is an everyday observation. You don't look exactly like both of your parents. Same applies to your dog and every creature that reproduces sexually. That's evolution.Every hypothesis requires supporting evidence.
It's more subtle with asexual reproduction, and I guess you'd need to apply some environmental stress to demonstrate that in a laboratory.
Evolution of species has been a hot potato as it challenges the authority of a lot of religious parasites, but since "species" isn't defined, it doesn't matter anyway!
Just like criminal investigations, people's ability to draw correct conclusions vary widely. Some can do it with very few evidence/clues, like what's depicted by Sherlock Holmes or Hercule Poirot. When the readily available evidence is still inconclusive, they can find a way to generate the necessary evidence through experiments and more researches.
Some others can only come to the same conclusions after a lot of evidences are presented in front of them.
While some others can still fail to draw the correct conclusions even with overwhelming evidence. Typically, they have already been convinced by other hypotheses which are contradicted by those evidence.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/02/2024 12:18:43
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There was a time when there was no consciousness in our universe. Now there is. What caused consciousness to emerge? Did consciousness develop in the same way that, say, the liver or the eye developed, by random mutation and fitness selection during evolution? Inner experience seems to be radically different from anything else. Are we fooling ourselves?
Michael Steven Anthony Graziano is an American scientist and novelist who is currently a professor of Psychology and Neuroscience at Princeton University. His scientific research focuses on the brain basis of awareness.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/02/2024 12:22:26
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How does consciousness weave its magical web of inner awareness?appreciating music, enjoying art, feeling love? Even when all mental functions may be explained, the great mystery?what it 'feels like' inside?will likely remain. This is the 'Hard Problem' of consciousness. What could even count as a theory of consciousness, even in principle?It's baffling for those who haven't properly and consistently defined it.
Giulio Tononi is a neuroscientist and psychiatrist who holds the David P. White Chair in Sleep Medicine, as well as a Distinguished Chair in Consciousness Science, at the University of Wisconsin.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/02/2024 17:55:03
Every hypothesis requires supporting evidence.Evolution is not a hypothesis. It is the name we give to an everyday observation, like sunrise and political incompetence.
The mechanism of evolution is a bit more subtle, not completely understood, and so complicated that the observation looks a bit random, unpredictable, and mostly unproductive, but we use it in selective breeding, rather like voting Labour in the hope that things won't get any worse.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/02/2024 02:17:44
It started as a hypothesis. Now it's a widely accepted hypothesis due to overwhelming evidence supporting it. It should not be taught dogmatically and unquestionably. Introduce it like any other hypothesis, and show how accumulated evidence through out history of sciences in biology have converged to support it.Every hypothesis requires supporting evidence.Evolution is not a hypothesis. It is the name we give to an everyday observation, like sunrise and political incompetence.
The mechanism of evolution is a bit more subtle, not completely understood, and so complicated that the observation looks a bit random, unpredictable, and mostly unproductive, but we use it in selective breeding, rather like voting Labour in the hope that things won't get any worse.
Even the first knowledge can be acquired by a conscious agent, which is its own existence for being able to make that inquiry, started as a hypothesis. The hypothesis must be accepted because otherwise, it would create a contradiction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/02/2024 05:50:26
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What is a literature review? Well, times have changed and here is the MODERN way of doing one that your professors won't tell you about!
Whether you're a budding scholar or a seasoned researcher, understanding the core of "what is a literature review" is pivotal. This video not only demystifies the concept but also delves into the strategic "how to start a literature review," ensuring you lay a solid foundation for your study.
Navigating through the sea of academic literature can be daunting. Our step-by-step tutorial offers a detailed "literature review outline," providing you with a blueprint to organize your research effectively. With practical tips and insights, we guide you on "how do you write a literature review," transforming a challenging task into a manageable and fulfilling endeavor.
One of the most pressing questions we address is "how long should a literature review be?" Tailoring your literature review's length to fit your academic requirements is an art, and our video equips you with the knowledge to master it. From undergraduate theses to doctoral dissertations, we cover diverse academic levels, ensuring relevance and applicability.
Featuring cutting-edge tools like elicit.com for AI-driven literature discovery, Lit Maps for visualizing research connections, and innovative platforms for simplifying the reading of peer-reviewed papers, this video is your gateway to harnessing the power of modern research technologies. Whether you're drafting your first literature review or seeking to enhance your research methodology, our guide is designed to elevate your academic writing.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 What is a literature review?
00:18 How do you start a literature review?
02:30 Literature review outline with AI
04:29 Finding the structure
06:29 Explain Paper AI tool
07:36 How do you write a literature review?
09:10 How long is a literature review?
11:06 Wrapping up
Understanding new things isn't just compressing new information into smaller bits. It's necessary but inadequate. We also need to connect the new information to our existing body of knowledge.
AI advancement toward AGI will integrate all knowledge accumulated by humanity through out history.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/02/2024 11:42:29
When we haven't properly defined goal, it's highly probable to end up as nihilists. Some of us may even be so confused by thinking that death is their goal.
Post by: alancalverd on 18/02/2024 00:40:58
Now it's a widely accepted hypothesisDo you look exactly like both of your parents?
If so, evolution may be a hypothesis. If not, it is an everyday observation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/02/2024 06:27:15
My parents look different. One male, the other is female. How can I look exactly like both?Now it's a widely accepted hypothesisDo you look exactly like both of your parents?
If so, evolution may be a hypothesis. If not, it is an everyday observation.
Even identical twins aren't exactly look the same.
If it were as obvious as you've described, why humans have misunderstood it for millenia?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/02/2024 06:32:40
Here's one comment I like to share.
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To be frank I don?t think JTB is a coherent definition of knowledge. Knowledge is just, and always has been, justified belief. We don?t have access to truth, everything we have is justification, when you see that it is raining outside, you are justified in believing that it is raining outside, but is it? You could go outside and experience rain, but you?re only getting further justification that it is raining, nothing more.I've stated previously that the True requirement for knowledge is an overcommitment, which would make almost nothing is classified as knowledge, and renders the term useless.
Not all knowledge has the same level of confidence. Knowledge used in making decisions needs to have adequate level of confidence, depending on the risk involved.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/02/2024 19:20:38
If it were as obvious as you've described, why humans have misunderstood it for millenia?Because religious parasites attacked Darwin's theory of the evolution of species, and thus promulgated the absurd belief that evolution is a hypothesis.
The stupidity of humans cannot be overestimated.
Millennia? I think not. Homo sapiens has been exploiting evolution since we began farming. The suggestion that the blindingly obvious is merely a theory can only be traced back to 1859.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/02/2024 12:43:19
Post by: alancalverd on 21/02/2024 22:18:47
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 22/02/2024 13:56:23
And we still don't understand evolution. But that doesn't make it a theory - it's an observation.We do understand it, for most part.
There are observations of evolution, like fossil record and biodiversity.
There are theories of evolution, which are human's attempts to explain the observations.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/02/2024 22:24:17
So the phrase "the theory of evolution" is meaningless, but "my theory of the mechanism of evolution" might mean something. But it would have to be a very big theory to explain Darwin's finches, the variance of human skin pigmentation, and the increasing width of motor cars. And if it is to be considered a scientific theory, it would have to predict the result of an experiment we haven't yet done.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2024 10:37:42
So we agree that evolution is not a theory.The disagreements are mainly come from the shifting of what the word "theory" means. Casual usage seems to be different from usage in science community.
So the phrase "the theory of evolution" is meaningless, but "my theory of the mechanism of evolution" might mean something.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 24/02/2024 11:13:46
But it would have to be a very big theory to explain Darwin's finches, the variance of human skin pigmentation, and the increasing width of motor cars. And if it is to be considered a scientific theory, it would have to predict the result of an experiment we haven't yet done.Darwinian theory of evolution is based on a few axioms, like heredity, variations through mutations, and natural selection. Long term predictions are hard because of chaos theory, and small change in little details can have significant impact later on.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2024 07:37:36
Quote
China's Ghost Cities House 64 Million Empty Apartments
The skyscrapers are empty, the streets are without traffic, and a chilling silence emanates throughout the area. These are the scenes of China?s ghost cities.
These streets resemble abandoned or evacuated cities from a zombie or nuclear apocalypse movie. But nobody even lived here in the first place.
China?s economic plan to build into oblivion has transformed it into the world?s second biggest economy in a short space of time. But do these empty cities show the ugly side of this economic boom? Let?s take a look.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/02/2024 07:39:30
What can be learned from them?
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Norway boasts the highest electric vehicle adoption rate in the world. 82% of new car sales were EVs in Norway in 2023. In comparison, 7.6% of new car sales were electric in the U.S. last year, according to Kelley Blue Book estimates. The Norwegian government started incentivizing the purchase of EVs back in the 1990s, but it wasn?t until Tesla and other EV models became available about ten years ago that sales really started to take off. Norway?s capital, Oslo, is also electrifying its ferries, buses, semi trucks and even construction equipment. Gas pumps and parking meters are being replaced by chargers. It?s an electric utopia of the future. CNBC flew across the globe to meet with experts, government officials and locals to find out how the Scandinavian country pulled off such a high EV adoption rate.
Chapters:
2:01 - Incentives and subsidies
11:51 -Charging and energy stations
20:54 - Charging anxiety
20:56 - Next phase of Norway?s EV transition
32:08 - Lessons for the U.S.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/02/2024 13:54:08
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Companies are doing mass layoff while complaining about not being able to find enough employees, some workers are min-maxing the system by working multiple full-time jobs at the same time, while others need to work hours of unpaid overtime at just one job? This is not to mention that the gig economy is consuming entire sectors of the workforce? The 9-5 was created by American labour unions in the 1800?s and became mainstream over one HUNDRED [100] years ago, when jobs looked like this, and this? it was revolutionary for its time? but how many of the modern problems in corporate America are caused by trying to make an outdated system fit with every single modern job?
A report by the management consulting firm McKinsey and company found that two thirds [2/3] of the average humans wealth is in the work they can do over their lifetime. Everybody has time, effort and experience that they can trade for money and those tradable commodities are worth twice as much as all of the other assets that the average person possesses. A regular nine to five [9-5] job has been a great way for billions of people to safely exchange a predictable amount of their time for a predictable pay check, with predictable career advancement as they gain more experience.
But this one size fits all model for work doesn?t fit with every job and trying to make it work has been bad for employees AND bad for companies for three reasons, which is causing three equally terrible trends in the job market. The first trend is that it makes time a worthless asset. The Ford Motor Company was one of the first businesses in America to adopt the nine to five forty-hour work week. Henry Ford did this to make his company THE most attractive place for auto workers to get a job. This allowed him to pull talent away from other automakers without paying his workers more. In order to compete with Ford other automakers were forced to offer the same forty-hour work week with paid overtime. Eventually in order to compete with the automakers other companies were also forced to offer 9-5 jobs so that their best workers didn?t quit to go and work on a car assembly line. These auto workers had tightly defined and repetitive tasks, so unless the workers succumbed to exhaustion, they could do a consistent amount of work for every hour they spent at their post, and every additional hour would produce the same amount of output.
If you work in a modern office job you will know that your work is nothing like this. Sometimes there is a lot to do, and sometimes there is nothing to do, but you still need to be there eight hours a day looking busy no matter what. Back when the 40-hour week was being fought for by workers unions, most Americans worked in manufacturing, but today most people work in the service sector which is more diverse than you might expect.
Clearly these jobs are very different, and should have a different schedule but most of the corporate world has tried to make the 9-5 fit all jobs? Work comes and goes as internal and external customers make demands, and that means when people are busy and need more than eight hours in the day to finish their work they are expected to work ?reasonable unpaid overtime? ?
According to an ADP Research Institute Study of office professionals unpaid overtime jumped to an average of NINE point two HOURS per WEEK in 2021, more than a full extra day to keep up with employer demands.
BUT when there is little to no work to do because a project has just been completed or sales are seasonally slow, workers are still expected to put in their 40 hours a week, because ?that?s what the business is paying them for?.
If you are in this kind of job your best option is to try and find something that makes you look busy, but ?if you don?t have something to work on? you are probably going to be given meaningless tasks just to fill the mandatory eight-hour day?
So it?s time to learn How Money Works to find out why we might be in the midst of the overdue collapse of the 9-5.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/02/2024 15:07:23
Norway boasts the highest electric vehicle adoption rate in the world.And the lowest electricity prices in Europe. All you need for this bit of utopia is a very low population density and more hydroelectric power than you can use. Plus a reliable railway service for long trips.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/02/2024 04:43:12
What can be learned from them?Let's start with a reflection from the past.
- We are here because our predecessors (including our past selves) do something that led to our current existence. We don't come out suddenly from vacuum randomly.
- Something that our predecessors did make our current lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.
Post by: alancalverd on 27/02/2024 08:47:31
What can be learned from them?See reply #1242 above.
"Horses for courses" is the key. If you have lots of cheap electricity, you can run lots of electric cars. If you don't, you can't.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-hydro (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-hydro) shows 61 MWh/year of hydropower per capita for Norway, 99 for Iceland, 0.2 for the UK.
An average car travelling 10,000 miles per year uses about 12 MWh. Only Canada (27) comes anywhere near the sustainability of Iceland and Norway. Next in line: New Zealand, at 13, then...nobody.
How about wind? Nowhere in the world produces more than 3 MWh/year per capita from wind, and guess who produces most? Norway!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 02:47:34
Then others need to learn how they can get lots of cheap electricity in the first place. It must be something that they've done in the past, but others haven't as much.What can be learned from them?See reply #1242 above.
"Horses for courses" is the key. If you have lots of cheap electricity, you can run lots of electric cars. If you don't, you can't.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-hydro (https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/per-capita-hydro) shows 61 MWh/year of hydropower per capita for Norway, 99 for Iceland, 0.2 for the UK.
An average car travelling 10,000 miles per year uses about 12 MWh. Only Canada (27) comes anywhere near the sustainability of Iceland and Norway. Next in line: New Zealand, at 13, then...nobody.
How about wind? Nowhere in the world produces more than 3 MWh/year per capita from wind, and guess who produces most? Norway!
Post by: alancalverd on 28/02/2024 12:46:23
Nobody else has ever managed to make cheap electricity in significant quantities (20 MWh/year per capita) from renewable sources. However you do the maths, it just isn't possible. Nuclear power might have done the trick for a few hundred years but it's too late to start now: the cost of the fossil fuel needed to build a nuclear power station makes it uneconomic.
It could be done in the British Isles by using wind with hydrogen storage, if we reduced the population to about 10 - 20% of the present level. Wholly feasible, negligible net cost, but politically improbable. So we have to get rid of politicians: google for "technocratic government" to see how.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 13:28:20
Nobody else has ever managed to make cheap electricity in significant quantities (20 MWh/year per capita) from renewable sources. However you do the maths, it just isn't possible.What about countries around deserts?
Solar HAS become the cheapest energy source to operate. Batteries are also getting cheaper fast. Sodium battery is expected to support the utility systems, especially because the abundance of raw materials, and no constraints for space and weight, unlike in vehicles.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 13:40:07
Extrapolate to the future, something that we do will make our successors' lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.What can be learned from them?Let's start with a reflection from the past.
- We are here because our predecessors (including our past selves) do something that led to our current existence. We don't come out suddenly from vacuum randomly.
- Something that our predecessors did make our current lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.
Life is a game for everyone, and the prize is continued existence of our successors.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/02/2024 15:16:40
What about countries around deserts?Generally lacking in hydroelectric potential, and since the sun only shines half the time, solar arrays need a lot of storage.
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Solar HAS become the cheapest energy source to operate.in the short term
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Batteries are also getting cheaper fast.and now you need two batteries, one to store electricity for sale, and another in the vehicle. And the fossil energy used to produce solar systems is enormous. And then you have the political problem: if you are dependent on the electricity I make, I won't sell it cheap. Which is already the problem with oil.Quotebut have a limited lifeSodium battery is expected to support the utility systems, especially because the abundance of raw materials, and no constraints for space and weight, unlike in vehicles.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/02/2024 15:21:00
something that we do will make our successors' lives easierVery simply, make fewer babies. Everybody wins.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 23:17:34
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 23:20:10
How few is the best? Is it 0?something that we do will make our successors' lives easierVery simply, make fewer babies. Everybody wins.
What makes it best?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 28/02/2024 23:21:40
And the fossil energy used to produce solar systems is enormous.Why can't we use solar energy to produce solar systems?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/02/2024 06:48:36
Economy is about distribution of resources to achieve the terminal goal of a system effectively and efficiently.The Trillion Dollar Equation
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The most famous equation in finance, the Black-Scholes/Merton equation, came from physics. It launched an industry worth trillions of dollars and led to the world?s best investments.
References:
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons launched the quant revolution, Gregory Zuckerman. Penguin Publishing Group. - https://ve42.co/GZuckerman
The Physics of Finance: Predicting the Unpredictable: Can Science Beat the Market? James Owen Weatherall. Short Books. - https://ve42.co/FinancePhysics
The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets, J.Voigt. Springer. - https://ve42.co/Springer
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of political economy, 81(3), 637-654. - https://ve42.co/BlackScholes
Cornell, B. (2020). Medallion fund: The ultimate counterexample?. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 46(4), 156-159. - https://ve42.co/Medallion
Post by: alancalverd on 29/02/2024 09:39:54
How few is the best? Is it 0?Initially , reduce birthrate to one child per female.
What makes it best?
In a civilised society (i.e not the USA) the saving in child welfare costs and manpower can be diverted to the welfare of the post-retirement population (who have paid for it!), and the "working fraction" of the population (effectively, the proportion aged between 20 and 60) increases gradually from 0.5 to about 0.6, so net wealth and tax income increase.
After about 100 years the total population will have decreased to around 20% of its initial value and everyone will have 5 times the space and natural resources available. This level is indefinitely sustainable in the UK, so you might want to bring the birthrate back to around 2.1
Apparently South Korea is already on track, with the current birthrate at about 0.7. Stupidly, the government (a tautology?) wants to increase it!
Post by: alancalverd on 29/02/2024 09:44:33
Perhaps a skewed bell curve, because the past can be less unpredictable than the future.No - it's a semi-infinite exponential decay because there is no uncertainty about the past! Even if we don't know the details or the mechanism, the result is the observed present.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/02/2024 20:34:46
Why should we do that? What's the target/objective/goal/purpose?How few is the best? Is it 0?Initially , reduce birthrate to one child per female.
What makes it best?
In a civilised society (i.e not the USA) the saving in child welfare costs and manpower can be diverted to the welfare of the post-retirement population (who have paid for it!), and the "working fraction" of the population (effectively, the proportion aged between 20 and 60) increases gradually from 0.5 to about 0.6, so net wealth and tax income increase.
After about 100 years the total population will have decreased to around 20% of its initial value and everyone will have 5 times the space and natural resources available. This level is indefinitely sustainable in the UK, so you might want to bring the birthrate back to around 2.1
Apparently South Korea is already on track, with the current birthrate at about 0.7. Stupidly, the government (a tautology?) wants to increase it!
Is there any alternative?
How to determine which option is the best?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/03/2024 03:28:11
The highest certainty is 1, or 100%.Perhaps a skewed bell curve, because the past can be less unpredictable than the future.No - it's a semi-infinite exponential decay because there is no uncertainty about the past! Even if we don't know the details or the mechanism, the result is the observed present.
There are cases where what we thought we know about the past turn out to be false.
There is non-zero chance that our memory about past experiences are corrupted.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/03/2024 03:35:16
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The tech sector is having a big 2024. Nvidia just crushed earnings expectations. The AI boom remains in full swing. The tech-heavy Nasdaq index is up more than 8 percent year-to-date.It's time to reconsider what we are working for, and ask why so several times until we get the root cause, which is our terminal goal.
The U.S. economy is also doing surprisingly well, adding 353,000 jobs in January, well ahead of economists' forecasts. Hotter-than-expected inflation data may also keep the Fed from cutting rates as soon as the market expects, a sign that the economy remains strong enough to support higher interest rates for longer. It's a different story for tech workers, though.
"The layoffs to the start of 2024 signal a dramatic shift in the tech industry," said Jeff Shulman, professor at the University of Washington's Foster School of Business. "We're going to continue to see layoffs happen as the future of work has changed, as the future of technology has changed, and as investors appetite for risk and growth versus profitability has dramatically changed as well."
The number of tech sector layoffs in 2024 has been outpacing the number of terminations in 2023. So far, about 42,324 tech employees were let go in 2024, according to Layoffs.fyi, which tracks layoffs in the tech industry. That averages out to more than 780 layoffs each day in 2024. In 2023, nearly 263,000 tech employees got laid off, averaging about 720 firings each day that year.
There are several factors behind the churn. Artificial intelligence is at the forefront. Companies need to free up cash to invest in the chips and servers that power the AI models behind these new technologies. There's also the stock market effect. Companies that conducted layoffs haven't been punished for it, either by investors or on their bottom lines.
Watch the video above to find out more about why tech workers may be poised to endure another rough year of layoffs, and why the surprising strength of the U.S. economy may not be coming to their rescue.
Chapters:
0:00 ? Intro
2:26 ? Hiring and firing
4:24 ? The AI effect
7:15 ? The end of cushy tech jobs?
9:50 ? What?s next?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/03/2024 07:59:08
As the first knowledge, our own existence while we're thinking about it is the most certain thing there is. Its certainty is 100%. A few seconds to minutes before and after that, we can say the certainty is only slightly reduced. But further away from the origin, the certainty drops rapidly. It will look like a bell curve. Perhaps a skewed bell curve, because the past can be less unpredictable than the future.For the next minutes, our own existence can be the most likely than anyone else.
40 years later, our own existence can be less likely than the existence of our children.
80 years later, our own existence can be less likely than the existence of our grand children.
That's assuming the currently common lifestyle and technology, which may change in the future.
The impacts of our actions can occur at delayed time. We should align our actions with the occurrence of their impacts and who are likely to be impacted.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 01/03/2024 08:02:40
What would be cheaper in the long term?QuoteSolar HAS become the cheapest energy source to operate.in the short term
Post by: alancalverd on 01/03/2024 09:44:38
There are cases where what we thought we know about the past turn out to be false.We may not understand the prior cause, but the net effect is the present, which we can "know" up to the limits imposed by Heisenberg.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/03/2024 09:50:21
What would be cheaper in the long term?Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store.
Direct mechanical windmills worked for thousands of years because there is never any urgency: dry grain will keep until the wind blows, and dry flour will keep until you need it. Problem with electricity is that folk expect to have it at any time, and you can't just put it in a building with a dog (to kill the rats).
Post by: Zer0 on 01/03/2024 16:17:27
Economy is about distribution of resources to achieve the terminal goal of a system effectively and efficiently.The Trillion Dollar EquationQuoteThe most famous equation in finance, the Black-Scholes/Merton equation, came from physics. It launched an industry worth trillions of dollars and led to the world?s best investments.
References:
The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons launched the quant revolution, Gregory Zuckerman. Penguin Publishing Group. - https://ve42.co/GZuckerman
The Physics of Finance: Predicting the Unpredictable: Can Science Beat the Market? James Owen Weatherall. Short Books. - https://ve42.co/FinancePhysics
The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets, J.Voigt. Springer. - https://ve42.co/Springer
Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of political economy, 81(3), 637-654. - https://ve42.co/BlackScholes
Cornell, B. (2020). Medallion fund: The ultimate counterexample?. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 46(4), 156-159. - https://ve42.co/Medallion
The " Titles " are completely Misleading!
The very act of Predictions, high or low, is what Affects the Final outcome.
ps - In Life, the Universe & 0ther Things...
There are N0 Guarantees..
0nly Probabilities
&
0nly Uncertainties!
(An0n)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/03/2024 06:02:15
Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store.What's your source?
I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/03/2024 06:18:59
The very act of Predictions, high or low, is what Affects the Final outcome.Not the prediction itself per se, but the real actions based on the prediction. That's including publication of the prediction, which can affect the decision and actions of other economic players.
Predictions alone without follow up actions are not that influential.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 02/03/2024 09:49:20
Quote
US stock markets could be looking for sustainability after February's rampant rally powered by Magnificent Seven earnings. CFRA Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall
"Right now the S&P 500 (^GSPC) technology sector is trading at a 56% premium to its average P/E on forward 12-month earnings over the last 25 years," Stovall says. "On a relative basis, it's at a 25% premium to the S&P 500 itself, even though it is primarily the driver of the S&P 500. So, a lot of other sectors are in 20% premium areas like communication services..."
Stovall also comments on tech valuations, AI-exposed stocks, and his expectations for Thursday's PCE print.
Post by: alancalverd on 02/03/2024 11:59:22
What's your source?Physics and geography.
I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.They used to say that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter.
Once you have installed a solar panel it will produce electricity whenever the sun shies, with a useful life of 10 - 25 years, but that's the easy bit. Battery performance decreases to uneconomic after 5 - 10 years and you need a big investment in inverters if you are going to transmit your product over a grid. Plus, of course, a lot of land.
And then you have to make lots of battery-powered vehicles, covert all your domestic and industrial heating to electric, and increase grid capacity by a factor of 4. That would need an awful lot of fossil fuel!
Interestingly, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf suggests that whilst primary (DC) solar power is indeed carbon-efficient over a lifetime, wind has almost the same carbon footprint per kWh as coal!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 03:58:47
Battery performance decreases to uneconomic after 5 - 10 yearsSome EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime. It shows that they are confident in the reliability of their battery to be longer than 20 years.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 04:03:31
And then you have to make lots of battery-powered vehicles, covert all your domestic and industrial heating to electric, and increase grid capacity by a factor of 4. That would need an awful lot of fossil fuel!Continuing business as usual will need even more fossil fuel.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 04:05:07
They used to say that nuclear power would be too cheap to meterTechnically, the sun is a nuclear reactor.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 04:14:43
Interestingly, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf suggests that whilst primary (DC) solar power is indeed carbon-efficient over a lifetime, wind has almost the same carbon footprint per kWh as coal!We can build solar panels and wind mills as small as we want around residence, farm yards, and buildings. They produce zero emission. We don't worry about fuel resupply transport and storage.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 04:17:44
You need your physics and geography updated.QuoteQuote from: hamdani yusuf on Yesterday at 06:02:15Physics and geography.
What's your source?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/03/2024 12:23:33
The video depicts asteroid mining, especially for exotic materials or precious metals which are in high demands but limited supply on earth. It relies on the assumption that humans won't be able to synthesize those materials economically using raw materials from earth.
IMO, the future of nuclear fusion technology is not in producing energy, but rather in nuclear transmutations, or producing desired elements from other more abundant elements.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/03/2024 15:39:28
You need your physics and geography updated.I doubt it. Neither has changed much in the last 500,000 years.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 04/03/2024 22:09:35
Then you need to learn about theory of knowledge.You need your physics and geography updated.I doubt it. Neither has changed much in the last 500,000 years.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/03/2024 11:00:56
Some EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime.Whose? I can confidently guarantee an adult mayfly for a lifetime, because they all live exactly one lifetime. But fortunately for the fish that eat their corpses, the average is 4 hours. A friend has a 50-year-old (gasoline) car that works beautifully, as does my 50-year-old airplane - clearly 50 years is less than a "lifetime".
Post by: alancalverd on 05/03/2024 11:03:39
Then you need to learn about theory of knowledge.The height of intellectual arrogance! What I know about physics and geography has absolutely no influence on the way the universe works, has done for several billion years, and is likely to do so for ever.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/03/2024 11:22:10
Billionaires Are Secretly Directing Asteroids To Earth and We Don?t Know WhyIt also relies on the assumption that nobody else will do it. If you double the supply of goods, you can reduce the market price below the cost of making the addition. No problem, if you ignore human greed and competitiveness.
The video depicts asteroid mining, especially for exotic materials or precious metals which are in high demands but limited supply on earth. It relies on the assumption that humans won't be able to synthesize those materials economically using raw materials from earth.
Plus the slightly complicated business of re-entry. Less than 5% of any meteor makes it to the ground. So simply transporting the bare rock isn't going to be very economical. You'll have to process the ore in situ to extract the high-value material. So we are talking about self-sustaining mines and refineries in the asteroid belt.
All entirely feasible as far as chemistry and physics are concerned, but who is going to invest in a multi-year project to supply a material based on current demand? By the time anything is built, it is out of date. Not a problem in the short term but how do you guarantee the supply of spare parts, or the demand for the product, 100 years hence?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/03/2024 10:06:41
https://wuling.id/en/blog/press-release/wuling-presents-lifetime-core-ev-component-warranty-program-during-binguo-ev-pre-bookingSome EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime.Whose? I can confidently guarantee an adult mayfly for a lifetime, because they all live exactly one lifetime. But fortunately for the fish that eat their corpses, the average is 4 hours. A friend has a 50-year-old (gasoline) car that works beautifully, as does my 50-year-old airplane - clearly 50 years is less than a "lifetime".
https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warranty
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/03/2024 10:11:08
Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store.What's your source?
I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.
Which part of physics and geography guarantee that hydropower will always be cheapest?You need your physics and geography updated.QuoteQuote from: hamdani yusuf on Yesterday at 06:02:15Physics and geography.
What's your source?
Which part of physics and geography say that hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest long term store?
Post by: alancalverd on 07/03/2024 11:35:55
https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warrantyAh, the small print. Lifetime battery replacement warranty. Fair enough! You pay a premium up front and they replace the battery whenever....er....now read the exclusions......Hyundai is not a charity.
I understand that vehicle insurance premiums are now increasing by 40 - 50% per year for all cars because of the cost of repairing damaged EVs would make it commercially impossible to insure EVs on a separate tariff.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 07/03/2024 12:19:06
If you think they set up a scam, you can sue them.https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warrantyAh, the small print. Lifetime battery replacement warranty. Fair enough! You pay a premium up front and they replace the battery whenever....er....now read the exclusions......Hyundai is not a charity.
I understand that vehicle insurance premiums are now increasing by 40 - 50% per year for all cars because of the cost of repairing damaged EVs would make it commercially impossible to insure EVs on a separate tariff.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/03/2024 12:46:24
It might be worth setting up an insurance company that doesn't cover EVs. You can charge 20% less than everyone else to make a profit and corner 60% of the market. Time was that you could insure a diesel Land Rover with a specialist for a lot less than a general insurer because they are (were, anyway) so easy to repair.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/03/2024 22:09:30
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 09/03/2024 22:24:09
We are not exactly the same as our ancestors. The difference is more significant when we're compared to them further in the past. Our ancestors from a billion years ago don't even look like us.Extrapolate to the future, something that we do will make our successors' lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.What can be learned from them?Let's start with a reflection from the past.
- We are here because our predecessors (including our past selves) do something that led to our current existence. We don't come out suddenly from vacuum randomly.
- Something that our predecessors did make our current lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.
Life is a game for everyone, and the prize is continued existence of our successors.
Reflecting it to the future, we should not expect that our successors in the distant future should be similar to us. Although the expectations for similarities are still preferred for the near future. We should not change a working system without good reasons. And for near future, not that many good reasons can be found. More good reasons will be found as time passes by, thus more changes should be expected.
Post by: alancalverd on 10/03/2024 00:41:16
The battery technology has improved significantly within the last few years, in terms of safety, energy density, price, raw materials logistics, useful lifetime, performance in various environment, etc. And it hasn't shown the signs of stopping.And the cost of repairing damaged BEVs has raised the insurance premiums of everyone else.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2024 08:01:20
If anyone can bring the overall cost down through their ingenuity, they will win the market. That's how a healthy competition should be.The battery technology has improved significantly within the last few years, in terms of safety, energy density, price, raw materials logistics, useful lifetime, performance in various environment, etc. And it hasn't shown the signs of stopping.And the cost of repairing damaged BEVs has raised the insurance premiums of everyone else.
Post by: alancalverd on 10/03/2024 08:51:22
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 10/03/2024 09:10:06
Why? Rolls-Royce still have a major share of their particular market despite the enormous cost of repairing them. The trick of insurance is that everyone pays, not just the person with the damaged vehicle. I doubt that the cost of accident repair is a major factor in a purchase decision.Their market share is small, compared to mass produced cars.
The cost of insurance can be a significant factor, especially if you by the car for business usage.
Behavior based insurance price is now possible, like using Tesla safety score. It can reduce reckless behavior of the drivers.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/03/2024 14:27:40
We are not exactly the same as our ancestors. The difference is more significant when we're compared to them further in the past. Our ancestors from a billion years ago don't even look like us.The future belongs to conscious entities whose predecessors worked for their existence. In whatever forms and shapes that they will take.
Reflecting it to the future, we should not expect that our successors in the distant future should be similar to us. Although the expectations for similarities are still preferred for the near future. We should not change a working system without good reasons.
And for near future, not that many good reasons can be found. More good reasons will be found as time passes by, thus more changes should be expected.
The trend is that surviving conscious entities tend to increase their conscious levels over time.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/03/2024 16:48:01
Behavior based insurance price is now possible,Up to a point, but the basis of compulsory insurance is third party claims. I have the same probability of damaging a BEV as I have of damaging any other vehicle, but the BEV is inherently more expensive to repair.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/03/2024 21:01:28
Risk is usually defined as severity times probability of incidents. It can be reduced by reducing either factor or both. It can be a selling point for car manufacturers to compete with one another.Behavior based insurance price is now possible,Up to a point, but the basis of compulsory insurance is third party claims. I have the same probability of damaging a BEV as I have of damaging any other vehicle, but the BEV is inherently more expensive to repair.
Various driving assistant systems can reduce the probability of incidents and problems. Design and material selection can reduce the severity and cost of incidents.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/03/2024 22:48:31
You surely aren't suggesting that I should scrap my car and buy one with automatic collision avoidance, just because you have bought a fragile one?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/03/2024 07:34:35
However you minimise the risk, the cost of repairing a BEV is significantly greater than would be incurred by the same impact on an IC vehicleHow do you make that conclusion?
Old machines are becoming more expensive to maintain because their manufacturer stopped supporting them anymore with new spare parts.
Advancement in 3D printing will change the situation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/03/2024 07:35:45
You surely aren't suggesting that I should scrap my car and buy one with automatic collision avoidance, just because you have bought a fragile one?Old cars typically have low safety scores.
Post by: alancalverd on 12/03/2024 10:01:21
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/03/2024 12:20:14
And BEVs have batteries. Just ask the trade - or an insurance company.And ICE have gasoline.
Post by: alancalverd on 12/03/2024 16:09:27
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 13/03/2024 04:06:08
A tank of gasoline is fairly robust against small collisions and easily replaced if bent. Batteries don't bend, and are prone to internal shorting under impact.Gasoline leakage poses fire hazard. Decades of research and engineering haven't change that much.
Some types of batteries have been shown to be fire resistant to puncture and cut.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/03/2024 16:19:28
Some types of batteries have been shown to be fire resistant to puncture and cut.And many are prone to self-combustion after impact - or even spontaneously. Lead-acid batteries are less suicidal but emit hydrogen and explode from time to time.
Post by: Zer0 on 13/03/2024 18:13:08
The very act of Predictions, high or low, is what Affects the Final outcome.Not the prediction itself per se, but the real actions based on the prediction. That's including publication of the prediction, which can affect the decision and actions of other economic players.
Predictions alone without follow up actions are not that influential.
When it comes to Stocks & Bonds...
Predictions are Actions!
(Global Markets are Interconnected, reason being some Brokers are Insomniacs)
If i have 1 apple which is predicted to turn into 2 apples the very next day, i would Not trade it off for all the Gold on this planet.
(Prediction negates any follow-up actions)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheat_and_chessboard_problem
ps - Nobody sells a Goose that lays Golden eggs.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/03/2024 23:16:16
ps - Nobody sells a Goose that lays Golden eggs.Apart, of course, from successive British governments.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 13:20:45
Then let evolutionary process remove those dangerous batteries from the market. Regulatory countermeasures can speed up the process, especially for those who are careless about their own safety and others'.Some types of batteries have been shown to be fire resistant to puncture and cut.And many are prone to self-combustion after impact - or even spontaneously. Lead-acid batteries are less suicidal but emit hydrogen and explode from time to time.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 13:25:37
Predictions are Actions!Not necessarily. I've predicted increase of Tesla stock several times based on engineering reviews on YouTube, especially by Sandy Munro and Tony Seba. I took no action afterwards, and got no gain for my inaction.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 14:33:38
Quote
SpaceX launched Starship atop of its Super Heavy booster from their Starbase facility in South Texas on March 14, 2024Making space travels economical is an instrumental goal for building a multiplanetary civilization, which in turn is an instrumental goal to pass a well known great filter.
Credit: SpaceX
We can't expect this kind of achievement coming out of a country with small economic size. They can't afford to blow up several starships in the development phase.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/03/2024 14:54:43
Making space travels economical is an instrumental goal for building a multiplanetary civilization, which in turn is an instrumental goal to pass a well known great filter.1. Define "civilisation" (10 marks)
2. Explain why you think this would be a Good Thing to do. (40 marks)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 16:17:03
1. Define "civilisation" (10 marks)https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civilization
Quote
A civilization (British English: civilisation) is any complex society characterized by the development of the state, social stratification, urbanization, and symbolic systems of communication beyond natural spoken language (namely, a writing system).Currently, all known civilizations are earth bound. Their existence depends on the existence of the earth.
Historically, a civilization has often been understood as a larger and "more advanced" culture, in implied contrast to smaller, supposedly less advanced cultures.
The word civilization relates to the Latin civitas or 'city'. As the National Geographic Society has explained it: "This is why the most basic definition of the word civilization is 'a society made up of cities.'"
Another group of theorists, making use of systems theory, looks at a civilization as a complex system, i.e., a framework by which a group of objects can be analysed that work in concert to produce some result. Civilizations can be seen as networks of cities that emerge from pre-urban cultures and are defined by the economic, political, military, diplomatic, social and cultural interactions among them. Any organization is a complex social system and a civilization is a large organization. Systems theory helps guard against superficial and misleading analogies in the study and description of civilizations.
Many theorists argue that the entire world has already become integrated into a single "world system", a process known as globalization. Different civilizations and societies all over the globe are economically, politically, and even culturally interdependent in many ways.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 16:29:33
2. Explain why you think this would be a Good Thing to do. (40 marks)Because the alternative is failing to pass the well known great filter, which means the extinction of the only known civilization. If that's acceptable for you, then do as you want. But don't obstruct the efforts of those who think it's unacceptable. Otherwise you'll be seen as the immoral one who stands on the wrong side of history.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/03/2024 19:30:14
Let's keep it local until we achieve something that might actually benefit another celestial body.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/03/2024 19:35:25
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 22:14:52
PS It seems Spacex is looking about as reliable as Boeing right now.IMO, you are comparing apple to orange.
Quote
Boeing was once seen as one of the best engineering firms in the world. Today they're plagued with scandals and constantly put profits before the lives of people. What went wrong? In this episode, we find out.
Quote
In just over a week since the last episode, a lot has happened with Boeing. From planes diving out of the sky and wheels falling off to the death of a whistle blower. In this episode we'll take a look at all of that and also Boeing's close ties to the US government.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 14/03/2024 22:17:31
All civilisation has done for the universe so far has been to increase the entropyI'm sceptical of how you measure entropy of a civilization.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/03/2024 00:47:09
reduce the biodiversity of this planet, to the point at which it may become unsustainable.Having a biodiversity is an instrumental goal. More biodiversity doesn't always bring more sustainability.
The difference between highly conscious beings and the lower ones is that they can make long-term planning better, which means they are more sustainable.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/03/2024 08:38:12
Post by: alancalverd on 15/03/2024 08:43:14
I'm sceptical of how you measure entropy of a civilization.It's the entropy of the planet, not the "civilisation" that matters.
ΔS > 0 and the more energy you expend, the greater S becomes.
Why would filling the underground seas of Europa with microplastics be a Good Thing? Burying discarded email printouts and empty beer cans on Titan would benefit the universe precisely how?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/03/2024 11:40:11
It's the entropy of the planet, not the "civilisation" that matters.Why should we limit the scope to a planet?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/03/2024 11:46:57
But, assuming you consider homo "sapiens" to be a highly conscious being, the evidence is to the contrary.I've defined consciousness as the capacity to achieve goals effectively and efficiently.
Humans have various consciousness level. Babies, toddler, kids, adults, they have shown different level of consciousness. There are also difference among adults.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/03/2024 11:48:47
Why would filling the underground seas of Europa with microplastics be a Good Thing? Burying discarded email printouts and empty beer cans on Titan would benefit the universe precisely how?What makes you think that future civilization won't be able to recycle resources effectively and efficiently?
Post by: Zer0 on 15/03/2024 17:36:05
ps - Nobody sells a Goose that lays Golden eggs.Apart, of course, from successive British governments.
Could you kindly elaborate Please...
Any Evidence?
Post by: Zer0 on 15/03/2024 17:51:46
Predictions are Actions!Not necessarily. I've predicted increase of Tesla stock several times based on engineering reviews on YouTube, especially by Sandy Munro and Tony Seba. I took no action afterwards, and got no gain for my inaction.
Law of Supply vs Demand.
Economics 001.
Predicting increase in Value invites Higher demand.
As demand goes up, & supply is Limited n Not infinite, prices Rise.
Your Predictions were the Actions...
Hence,
Predictions are Actions!
You investing in or not in TSLA remains unaccounted for, out of the equation.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/03/2024 18:14:22
Could you kindly elaborate Please...Gas, electricity, railways, the Post Office (both mail and telecoms), any "Public Private Initiative", the jet engine, North Sea oil and fish.....
Any Evidence?
Post by: alancalverd on 15/03/2024 18:16:31
I've defined consciousness as the capacity to achieve goals effectively and efficiently.Which puts a spider several orders more conscious than any human.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/03/2024 18:21:51
What makes you think that future civilization won't be able to recycle resources effectively and efficiently?So far, the evidence is that per capita production of nonrecyclable waste increases every year. It's called "economic growth" and is apparently essential to the wellbeing of politicians and the manufacturers of cosmetics.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 05:35:12
Why can't they be recycled?What makes you think that future civilization won't be able to recycle resources effectively and efficiently?So far, the evidence is that per capita production of nonrecyclable waste increases every year. It's called "economic growth" and is apparently essential to the wellbeing of politicians and the manufacturers of cosmetics.
How do you define economic growth? How important is it?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 05:41:18
Predictions alone without buying or selling bids remain unaccounted for, out of the equation.Predictions are Actions!Not necessarily. I've predicted increase of Tesla stock several times based on engineering reviews on YouTube, especially by Sandy Munro and Tony Seba. I took no action afterwards, and got no gain for my inaction.
Law of Supply vs Demand.
Economics 001.
Predicting increase in Value invites Higher demand.
As demand goes up, & supply is Limited n Not infinite, prices Rise.
Your Predictions were the Actions...
Hence,Predictions are Actions!
You investing in or not in TSLA remains unaccounted for, out of the equation.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 05:48:53
How do you know its goals?I've defined consciousness as the capacity to achieve goals effectively and efficiently.Which puts a spider several orders more conscious than any human.
How do you know that it can achieve its goals effectively and efficiently, much more than humans?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/03/2024 08:33:20
Why can't they be recycled?Because that requires uneconomic energy input. In principle you could pyrolyse all organic material, scrub the noxious halides for re-use, grow plants to reduce the CO2 to combustible carbon, and use that to reduce your scrap metals, but ΔS > 0 whatever you do, so you are just hastening the heat death of the universe.
Quote
How do you define economic growth? How important is it?You need to ask a politician. Nobody else knows or cares what it means, but they all vote for it.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/03/2024 08:45:43
How do you know its goals?Its apparent goal is to survive, grow, and populate the universe with spiders. They have a very low quiescent power consumption (a spider can "hibernate" for several years if there's no food about, and can survive in a very oxygen-depleted atmosphere) and an extremely efficient reproductive process (eating the male post-coitus is a brilliant tactic for feeding the next generation) that generates hundreds of entirely self-sufficient offspring, they have certainly succeeded in populating every part of Earth's solid surface and reproducing under zero-g conditions with no complications.
How do you know that it can achieve its goals effectively and efficiently, much more than humans?
The only unresolved question is whether web spiders can retain the ability to make a functional web over several zero-g generations, but if not, they will just have to rotate the spaceship a bit. That said, of course their success on another planet depends on there being enough flying insects, so it is more likely that hunting spiders would succeed.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 11:04:12
Its apparent goal is to survive, grow, and populate the universe with spiders.How will they manage to go to another planet? Do they even know what a planet is?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/03/2024 16:34:56
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 19:51:14
Because that requires uneconomic energy input. In principle you could pyrolyse all organic material, scrub the noxious halides for re-use, grow plants to reduce the CO2 to combustible carbon, and use that to reduce your scrap metals, but ΔS > 0 whatever you do, so you are just hastening the heat death of the universe.Is it a physical limitation in principle, or is it just a practical limit?
Producing light from electricity was once uneconomical. BEV was once uneconomical.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 19:57:44
Like rats, fleas and cockroaches, spiders go wherever humans go. They have more sense than to care what a planet is.It makes them depend on humans to go to places where they can't survive at present.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/03/2024 20:46:34
Making space travels economical is an instrumental goal for building a multiplanetary civilization, which in turn is an instrumental goal to pass a well known great filter.Economic size determines how much resources can be allocated to achieve something beyond the basic daily necessities, like preparations for future threats. Space travelling capabilities are also necessary to defend the earthlings from asteroids or comets impact.
We can't expect this kind of achievement coming out of a country with small economic size. They can't afford to blow up several starships in the development phase.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 17/03/2024 10:35:59
Someday, they find out that a global catastrophic event is coming in a few years, say a comet on track to hit the earth has been detected. They can't do anything to avoid nor prevent it, since it requires much more resources than what they currently have.
Developing a rocket program big enough to deflect the comet would take decades, and it won't even be ready before the comet is expected to hit.
Post by: alancalverd on 18/03/2024 09:22:33
Homo "sapiens" is perfectly content to sacrifice 85,000,000 of the finest of its species for no reason whatever (see WWII) and continues to do so every day for the greater glory of a nonexistent deity, along with eradicating various other species that get in the way of "economic expansion".
So not only would your extinction event be of no cosmic consequence, humans would regard it as wholly acceptable.
Post by: alancalverd on 18/03/2024 09:25:23
It makes them depend on humans to go to places where they can't survive at present.And when you enter tombs or places like Scott's Antarctic hut, you find spiders thriving long after all the humans have died.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 11:07:11
So what? It's happened before, and the universe survived, even if the dinosaurs didn't.Most of us (currently existing conscious beings) care about their successors.
Homo "sapiens" is perfectly content to sacrifice 85,000,000 of the finest of its species for no reason whatever (see WWII) and continues to do so every day for the greater glory of a nonexistent deity, along with eradicating various other species that get in the way of "economic expansion".
So not only would your extinction event be of no cosmic consequence, humans would regard it as wholly acceptable.
Those who don't (especially less conscious ones) will be less likely to have their successors survive in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 11:14:10
IMO, tardigrades are better at survival from extreme environment.It makes them depend on humans to go to places where they can't survive at present.And when you enter tombs or places like Scott's Antarctic hut, you find spiders thriving long after all the humans have died.
But humans are better at modifying their environment to be more livable for them. Some exceptions can be found, but they don't invalidate the general idea.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 11:18:18
Quote
Expensive to build and often needing highly skilled engineers to maintain, artificial intelligence systems generally only pay off for large tech companies with vast amounts of data. But what if your local pizza shop could use AI to predict which flavor would sell best each day of the week? Andrew Ng shares a vision for democratizing access to AI, empowering any business to make decisions that will increase their profit and productivity. Learn how we could build a richer society ? all with just a few self-provided data points.Healthy economy will drive to demonetization of common/basic resources in the future.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 12:26:57
People need to start thinking what they should learn, i.e. use their time effectively and efficiently.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 12:58:40
Economic size determines how much resources can be allocated to achieve something beyond the basic daily necessities, like preparations for future threats. Space travelling capabilities are also necessary to defend the earthlings from asteroids or comets impact.How Did The Wealthy Gain Power In The Past? - Yuval Noah Harari [2015] | Intelligence Squared
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In this clip from our 2015 session ?The Myths We Need To Survive?, historian Yuval Noah Harari engages in a thought-provoking discussion with Intelligence Squared. He delves into the origins of civilisations and the ascent of the wealthy to power, exploring the mechanisms that enabled them to maintain their influence through to contemporary times.
In his talks, he often emphasizes the importance of stories in shaping up societies. IMO, they are part of our virtual universe, a projection or model of the reality.
Those stories are considered memes, and their success rate (which means they are considered as accurate model of reality, thus will be kept alive by their believers) depend on some key factors.
They should be simple enough to be understood by their target audience.
They should be flexible enough to change when their predictions are contradicted by simple factual observations.
They should be useful enough that they give a net positive impact on cost and benefit analysis.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 18/03/2024 15:18:52
Homo "sapiens" is perfectly content to sacrifice 85,000,000 of the finest of its species for no reason whatever (see WWII)Afaik, WW2 is a reaction for what happened in the results and aftermath of WW1. It didn't emerge from vacuum.
That realization determined how the aftermath of WW2 ended up, with less harsh punishments for the war losers, even turning them into allies.
Post by: Zer0 on 18/03/2024 17:24:33
Predictions alone without buying or selling bids remain unaccounted for, out of the equation.Predictions are Actions!Not necessarily. I've predicted increase of Tesla stock several times based on engineering reviews on YouTube, especially by Sandy Munro and Tony Seba. I took no action afterwards, and got no gain for my inaction.
Law of Supply vs Demand.
Economics 001.
Predicting increase in Value invites Higher demand.
As demand goes up, & supply is Limited n Not infinite, prices Rise.
Your Predictions were the Actions...
Hence,Predictions are Actions!
You investing in or not in TSLA remains unaccounted for, out of the equation.
Predictions precede Bids.
Cause & Effect.
When Cause takes place, Effect is Inevitable.
A breaking news is what drives the Actions of buy/sell.
& there Always is a Breaking News.
Global Markets Never Sleep!
https://www.fool.com/terms/a/after-hours-trading/
*Disclaimer:
STOCK TRADING IS INHERENTLY RISKY AND THE USERS AGREE TO ASSUME COMPLETE AND FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE OUTCOMES OF ALL TRADING DECISIONS THAT THEY MAKE, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO LOSS OF CAPITAL.
Post by: Zer0 on 18/03/2024 17:40:25
Could you kindly elaborate Please...Gas, electricity, railways, the Post Office (both mail and telecoms), any "Public Private Initiative", the jet engine, North Sea oil and fish.....
Any Evidence?
I kinda Agree!
After all, it's about National Security.
Mining, Power, Oil etc are Indispensable!
Steel, arms & armaments have to remain under complete control of the State.
On second thoughts...
That solar farm investments in Morocco seem risky from a National Defence & Security perspective.
Not that Thee RAF is incapable of securing Moroccan airspace, it can very well, and when the time came, has Defended skies all over Europe.
But the possibility of an internal ground sabotage shall always exist.
& the Dark clouds of War never seem to Disappear from over Eurasia!
ps - & not alot of folks are aware of this.
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Frank-Whittle
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/03/2024 04:29:47
Predictions precede Bids.Not necessarily. The effect can be prevented/avoided.
Cause & Effect.
When Cause takes place, Effect is Inevitable.
The market can be frozen, like in the case of GameStop.
We can make predictions but cannot buy because we don't have money.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/03/2024 10:56:12
Afaik, WW2 is a reaction for what happened in the results and aftermath of WW1.And what was WW1 about? Certainly not the welfare of the combatants.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/03/2024 10:58:04
But humans are better at modifying their environment to be more livable for them.Scott's forward party died. The spiders survived.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/03/2024 12:23:09
I asked Gemini, how to measure economic size of a country?Making space travels economical is an instrumental goal for building a multiplanetary civilization, which in turn is an instrumental goal to pass a well known great filter.Economic size determines how much resources can be allocated to achieve something beyond the basic daily necessities, like preparations for future threats. Space travelling capabilities are also necessary to defend the earthlings from asteroids or comets impact.
We can't expect this kind of achievement coming out of a country with small economic size. They can't afford to blow up several starships in the development phase.
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The most common way to measure the economic size of a country is by looking at its Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Here's what GDP means:
It's the total monetary value of all final goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific year.
This includes things like consumer goods, services (like haircuts or healthcare), and even government spending.
Think of it as a giant tally of everything a country makes and sells in a year. By comparing GDPs, we can get a general idea of which countries have larger economies.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 19/03/2024 13:52:12
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Here are some things to keep in mind about GDP:IMO, GDP measures the inter-dependencies among economic agents. In a society where everyone can independently produce all of their needed resources, there will be no economic transaction. Their GDP will be zero, even though their well-being are quite high.
There are different ways to calculate GDP, but they all aim to capture the same overall picture.
GDP can be adjusted for inflation to give a more accurate idea of economic growth over time.
GDP doesn't tell the whole story. It doesn't take into account things like income inequality or the well-being of citizens.
For a more nuanced understanding of a country's economy, economists might also look at other factors alongside GDP, such as:
GDP per capita: This is GDP divided by the population, which gives a better idea of a country's average standard of living.
Sector breakdown of GDP: This shows how much of the economy comes from different industries, like agriculture, manufacturing, or services.
Unemployment rate: This indicates how many people are actively looking for work but can't find it.
So, while GDP is a key metric, it's just one piece of the puzzle when it comes to understanding the size and health of a country's economy.
Post by: alancalverd on 19/03/2024 14:54:09
Where GDP per capita is low but central government is more interested in vanity than welfare, the opposite applies.
Post by: Zer0 on 20/03/2024 18:04:59
Predictions precede Bids.Not necessarily. The effect can be prevented/avoided.
Cause & Effect.
When Cause takes place, Effect is Inevitable.
The market can be frozen, like in the case of GameStop.
We can make predictions but cannot buy because we don't have money.
Okay...Fine!
(lol)
ps - : )
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 20/03/2024 22:04:04
GDP per capita is what should determine a country's willingness to indulge in peacetime scientific speculation, so the Japanese space program looks sensible but not the Indian, Chinese or Russian programs.What's the unit of GDP? Is it in local currencies? Should it be measured in a global currency?
Where GDP per capita is low but central government is more interested in vanity than welfare, the opposite applies.
Post by: alancalverd on 21/03/2024 13:32:25
Post by: Zer0 on 22/03/2024 18:28:45
GDP per capita is what should determine a country's willingness to indulge in peacetime scientific speculation, so the Japanese space program looks sensible but not the Indian, Chinese or Russian programs.
Where GDP per capita is low but central government is more interested in vanity than welfare, the opposite applies.
The way & manner in which We as a Species have Evolved, hoping for PeaceTime is Wishful Thinking.
The Russians do it coz Space Weapons are a Must.
The Chinese do it cause No progress without Research & Development.
The Indians do it to just makee use of abundant human resources & Capitalize on it.
IMHO, it's quite less of a Vanity, Alot more of a Necessity!
$50,000 gdp per/cap, housing subsidies, free energy, tax cuts & rebates, pensions, free healthcare etc etc etc, Nothing guarantees Satisfaction.
ps - if only one could buy happiness by the kilo by the pound in the flea market, this world would be overflowing with smiles.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2024 21:25:16
Where big science is concerned, it doesn't make much difference. Even on a medium scale, I've worked on projects where we acquired components and materials from several countries and just priced the whole lot in US dollars.Afaik, USD was chosen as a global currency because it was tied to gold reserve. Although it was then broken, it had a newer connection to oil. When it's also lose, other countries will understandably look for alternatives. Especially due to increase of money printing by the Fed during the pandemic.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 23/03/2024 21:50:19
IMHO, it's quite less of a Vanity, Alot more of a Necessity!At least they thought it was necessary.
And no less importantly, because they can. Or they thought they can.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/03/2024 22:18:51
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 25/03/2024 09:24:55
Who "they"? Is there any evidence of a credible national referendum on space travel?
The Russians do it coz Space Weapons are a Must.
The Chinese do it cause No progress without Research & Development.
The Indians do it to just makee use of abundant human resources & Capitalize on it.
IMHO, it's quite less of a Vanity, Alot more of a Necessity!
Post by: alancalverd on 25/03/2024 15:46:33
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 26/03/2024 20:28:02
So a majority of Russian, Chinese and Indian citizens have all voted specifically in favor of their tax revenues being used for space travel? Or have their respective governments simply spent the money on the glorification of politicians without seeking consent?At least they don't go against it that much to hold a protest.
Post by: alancalverd on 27/03/2024 09:19:22
The problem with vanity projects is that large opposition parties (where they exist) aspire to basking in their success if they get elected before completion!
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/03/2024 09:52:54
Avoiding imprisonment, torture and murder does not equate, in my book, to consent. And thanks to religion and local corruption, the Indian electorate is too busy attacking itself to be concerned with the minutiae of government expenditure.Developing AGI was once deemed as a vanity project. So were renewable energy, EV, fusion reactor, and quantum computer. Now they are mainly developed by private sector instead of government. Some companies are financially more powerful than some countries.
The problem with vanity projects is that large opposition parties (where they exist) aspire to basking in their success if they get elected before completion!
Post by: Zer0 on 27/03/2024 18:21:16
(vanity)
In the sludgy scummy corner of the pond, thrive bacteria n fungi, & the Lotus blooms!
(reality)
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 29/03/2024 12:38:54
Avoiding imprisonment, torture and murder does not equate, in my book, to consent. And thanks to religion and local corruption, the Indian electorate is too busy attacking itself to be concerned with the minutiae of government expenditure.In democratic countries, consent can be expressed in votes.
If something is important enough, you'll do it anyway, even if it's hard, risky, or expensive.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/03/2024 13:43:36
In democratic countries, consent can be expressed in votes.They have just held democratic election in Russia, and the USA is about to confer absolute power on a crook or an idiot, depending on how the vote goes. No question of whether anyone consents to expenditure on space exploration. Nor do I see it on the ballot paper in India.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 08:44:26
Someone can come up with a program to stop existing space exploration project. It just happened that not many people are interested to vote for it.In democratic countries, consent can be expressed in votes.They have just held democratic election in Russia, and the USA is about to confer absolute power on a crook or an idiot, depending on how the vote goes. No question of whether anyone consents to expenditure on space exploration. Nor do I see it on the ballot paper in India.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2024 09:52:50
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 10:05:17
When did the electorate get to vote on every possible item of government expenditure? And even when a majority have voted for something, it is still within the power of a relatively democratic party to form an unholy alliance with another and set aside that policy in the interests of commanding a parliamentary majority (at your expense, of course).They make calculations based on what they think are the most important for them. They would have to let go the less important things to get the most important ones. The same goes for the politicians and political parties.
Republicans PANIC over IVF disaster, BACKTRACKING
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Republicans are increasingly panicking over the possible impact in 2024 of their continued assault on reproductive rights, most recently the Alabama IVF ruling
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2024 11:19:07
Presidents come and go (at least for the time being) but appointment to the SC is for life. As is the next president's debt to the Russian fascist.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 11:24:36
Presidents come and go (at least for the time being) but appointment to the SC is for life. As is the next president's debt to the Russian fascist.SC Justices' lives also come and go.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 11:33:45
They make calculations based on what they think are the most important for them. They would have to let go the less important things to get the most important ones. The same goes for the politicians and political parties.The most important thing for anyone is determined by their terminal goals. If they haven't thought of their terminal goal, then it will be determined by their emotions, instincts, or intuitions. Sooner or later, they will converge and aligned with the universal terminal goal, either voluntarily, or by compulsory, forced by circumstances.
Any conscious entity can be classified based on their thoughts and actions regarding the universal terminal goal.
1. Those who think that there is a universal terminal goal, and act accordingly.
2. Those who think that there is a universal terminal goal, but act contrary to the thought.
3. Those who think that there is no universal terminal goal, and act accordingly.
4. Those who think that there is no universal terminal goal, but act contrary to the thought.
Any conscious entities that exist in the far future are almost surely come from type 1 conscious entities. Type 2 and 4 are unreliable, hence their results are mostly random. In long term, their chance to survive (preserve consciousness in any form) diminishes to near zero. Type 3 will extinct much earlier.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2024 11:34:54
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 11:41:46
Problem is that a critical asset of a civilised society, such as Roe v Wade, took centuries to establish and hours to destroy, and will remain destroyed for as long as any of Trump's crooks and cronies on the SC bench remain alive. How long before they decriminalise slavery or lynching?It would be quicker to reestablish, as long as the voters are overwhelmingly desired it, and express it through their votes.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2024 13:29:01
Slavery and lynching were very popular in their day. Since the next US president has already encouraged his supporters to invade Congress rather than accept a majority vote, and decreed that Neo-nazis are "good people" I think we can look forward to the end of civilisation in the USA.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 31/03/2024 14:19:35
The Supreme Court is not elected by the voters, cannot be dismissed by anyone, and can only be replaced, by presidential nomination, on the death or resignation of a member.Then you can wait for their death. If the pain that they caused is unbearable, or you become impatient, you can try to accelerate it.
Slavery and lynching were very popular in their day. Since the next US president has already encouraged his supporters to invade Congress rather than accept a majority vote, and decreed that Neo-nazis are "good people" I think we can look forward to the end of civilisation in the USA.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2024 17:30:18
Post by: Zer0 on 03/04/2024 19:28:39
Not every German was a Scumbag, most if not all, were good hearted & kind spirits.
But if that is/was a Factual statement, the Nazis would have had No chance to Rise to Power.
Russians, Chinese, Indians etc.
Are a bit tired of the lecturing West now.
De-Dollarization has become Inevitable.
ps - if the Majority is always of the Fools, then the Biggest one has to be their Leader!
Post by: alancalverd on 04/04/2024 17:42:03
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/04/2024 15:27:00
I've heard this Alot!The majority were useful fools, been moved around by clever masterminds. IMO, open source AGI agents will democratize intelligence so that everyone will be aware of what would be the most likely outcomes of their decisions, and choose according to their own terminal goals. It will eventually enforce the convergence towards the universal terminal goal.
Not every German was a Scumbag, most if not all, were good hearted & kind spirits.
But if that is/was a Factual statement, the Nazis would have had No chance to Rise to Power.
Russians, Chinese, Indians etc.
Are a bit tired of the lecturing West now.
De-Dollarization has become Inevitable.
ps - if the Majority is always of the Fools, then the Biggest one has to be their Leader!
Post by: alancalverd on 07/04/2024 19:01:24
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/04/2024 14:53:55
And what might that be?To keep the existence of future consciousness.
Anyone who's totally indiscriminate about it, or whose decision making process are not aligned with it will soon stop existing, and won't be able to talk about it anymore.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/04/2024 15:03:42
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Anthony Tan ? the CEO of Grab, Southeast Asia's leading super-app ? talks about launching a business that not only turns a profit but also helps people and the environment. In conversation with digital strategist Amane Dannouni, Tan discusses the design choices and tension points of running such a company and why it's something every entrepreneur should consider doing.This will still sound true even when UBI or UBS are made common by the rise of AGI.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 08/04/2024 15:31:30
African country with 97% renewable energy decides to ban combustion cars
Post by: alancalverd on 09/04/2024 10:43:27
To keep the existence of future consciousness.To the extent that it can be done, it will be done by cockroaches or some kind of extremophile. Humans are too fragile and zstupid.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/04/2024 10:51:24
African country with 97% renewable energy decides to ban combustion carsSo only 3% of Ethiopia's current energy consumption is for road transport? Improbable, but if so, changing to all-electric won't be a problem.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 11/04/2024 15:36:29
Let's hear how you define goal. Only then you can find out the universal terminal goal.To keep the existence of future consciousness.To the extent that it can be done, it will be done by cockroaches or some kind of extremophile. Humans are too fragile and zstupid.
You don't seem to have an imagination beyond what's already known lifeforms on earth.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 12/04/2024 16:13:24
Is it more likely that they emerge independently from currently known conscious entities?
Or is it more likely that they come from currently known conscious entities who developed advanced technology to survive independently from the earth? Among currently known conscious entities, which one is more likely to develop such an advanced technology?
Post by: alancalverd on 12/04/2024 20:53:53
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/04/2024 10:59:56
It is almost certain that conscious entities, however you define them, already exist elsewhere in the universe. This planet is of negligible cosmic importance.We don't know for sure until we find one. No one with correct mind will bet on that assumption, and make decisions relying on the existence of unknown aliens.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 15/04/2024 11:04:36
Tony Seba says solar is now so cheap it can used as a construction material.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/04/2024 12:16:45
The service life of a slate roof is at least 200 years (the cladding material has been stable for several million years), and minor repairs can be done with a hammer. Not sure any solar array can match that as a construction material, even if it never generates useful power.
Sustainablility is increasingly critical. One is reminded of the builder reviewing the drawings for an Oxford college:
"Why do you need oak doors with brass hinges?"
"So that in 500 years' time, we will have oak doors with brass hinges".
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/04/2024 09:18:46
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 16/04/2024 09:25:14
Here's a popular comment.
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I rather think it is government that is insufficiently regulated. Maybe it will be better to have AI regulating government.
Post by: alancalverd on 16/04/2024 13:07:26
Let's not forget about Pareto principle. 80% of output is determined by 20% of input. How many people lives in polar regions, compared to elsewhere?But the further you live from the equator, the greater your annual energy consumption. It's a pretty continuous function.