Naked Science Forum
General Science => Question of the Week => Topic started by: EmmaHildyard on 26/07/2019 10:12:26
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Saugat wants to know...
What is the exact cause of monsoon rain and how will it be affected by global warming?
Please shower us with answers...
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Global warming will warm the oceans, which will put more moisture in the atmosphere.
No one knows for sure how bad this will be.
Some areas MIGHT get more rain, and some areas less rain.
Various models exist, southern Asia MIGHT get dryer according to this model https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00208.1
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Evaporation.
Global warming...
Rise in Eva rate.
Hence alot more rainfall.
Forgive me for not kick starting another new topic thread...
But Why is exactly then GW seen in a negative limelight?
Wouldn't more rain constitute to more land water holdings such as ponds & larger lakes, mightier flowing rivers, also more rationing of & higher underground water levels?
& isn't it aready quite cold & chilly in the northern hemisphere, would those nations really disapprove of warmer climates?
(*Note - I am very well aware that GW is not a fantasy fairy tale, all I wish to understand is why is it being foretold as a nightmare?)
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Global warming will warm the oceans, which will put more moisture in the atmosphere.
No one knows for sure how bad this will be.
Yes we do. We have the palaeoclimatology record to guide us. Paradoxically, earth has been getting colder for the last 52 million years (figure 3). All the while politicians, media, muppets and careerist scientists try to scare you to death so that they can both virtue signal and promote their careers.
It's fair to say they (modelers) generally don't have a clue but climate scientists (not modelers) who study climate do. Here is earth's temperature record for the past 5.5 million years (Figure 1). We are now located on the extreme right-hand side at at 0°C (grey dashed line baseline). The last 2.5 million years show the history of the current Ice Age. We are now at the top, close to the warmest. The general trend is getting colder from here.
The current climate is relatively warmer than the past 700 years. This is due to shorter term solar cycles associated with:
- the relationship between the sun and planets, and
- the net strength of the solar magnetic field
The short term trend will be cooling. Peak cold between 2030 and 2041. Getting back to the current 'warm' earth at about 2052. Then warming slightly more before cooling again. The warming cycles are called the Bray cycle and Eddy cycle. These are 2500 year and 1000 year respectively. The cooling cycle (for the next 33 years) is the de Vries cycle. See figure 2.
PS: An Ice Age, in climate science, is a period when both poles of earth are substantially glaciated - as they currently are. A glaciation during an Ice Age is what we colloquially call The Ice Age.
PS 2: There are many solar cycles which interfer (cancel) and reinforce each other. These range in periodicity from 11 to 100,000 years. In addition, there is a moon cycle, and very long-term cycles associated with the solar system motion around the Milky Way.
Figure 1.
(https://i.ibb.co/CHD94zq/f03c.png) (https://ibb.co/87txG0J)
Figure 2
(https://i.ibb.co/7nxYy9p/f06c.png) (https://ibb.co/ByHzs16)
Figure 3
(https://i.ibb.co/rxJGrCy/f02c.png) (https://ibb.co/k4FgCRc)
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Why is exactly then GW seen in a negative limelight?
You are exactly right. See diagrams in my post. In figure 3, the period about 52 million years ago is called the Eocene Optimum. It was a very warm, moist, period when life on earth flourished. Hence the term "optimum". The worse recent period for life on earth was during the depth of the last glaciation just over 70,000 years ago. Volcanic eruptions combined with solar cycles to nearly wipe out the human race. Reducing the human population to about 20,000 brave souls. Tropical rainforests like the Amazon were about 10% of current size during this severe glaciation. Much of earth's area was essentially desertified because the combination of cold and low precipitation weren't good enough to keep plants alive.
Q: Why is warmth seen in a negative light?
A: Because careerist climate modelers have to sell their worthless product somehow. Their models cannot predict climate so they predict gloom. Modelers keep their jobs as doom-mongers because humanity are gluttons for punishment. Our toff, public school, establishment sell this to the public as it both satisfies their better than thou self-image, their contempt for the fossil fuel guzzling lower orders. All the while keeping those most incompetent of scientists - climate modelers - on a secure career trajectory.