Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Cells, Microbes & Viruses => Topic started by: ukmicky on 09/10/2020 00:20:36
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Currently we are on wave two. At some stage everything will be shut down and we will reduce the R number enough to reopen everything and then along will come wave 3 and so on and so on.
So basically this is with us for a long time if we continue to deal with it in the way we currently are. . So i was thinking like others, is the best way forward for the country to open up with no restrictions apart from those who need to shield due to age or a condition that makes them vulnerable and let everyone else catch it so most of the population become immune preventing its transmission.
However I then had another thought (i have many, some say I have too many) Does having antibodies against a virus prevent you actually catching that virus . Is it like I was told after my flu jab that I can still catch the flu but it wont be a bad case. If I can still catch a virus even though i have antibodies against it and therefore will still be able to pass it on, a future vaccine or herd immunity of the general population wont help us eradicate it and could actually make things worse as there may be more people walking around with the virus but no symptoms .
So am I right in my thinking or wrong ,where Neilep when you need him.
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The problem with dropping all restrictions is that the number of cases will explode.
- When hospitals get overloaded, medical care is reserved for those most likely to recover, ie old people are not treated (in Italy, at one stage, apparently anyone over 40 was not getting admitted to Intensive Care).
- With high rates of COVID-19 infection in the community, medical and aged-care workers are likely to get infected, and spread it to more patients.
- I am sure that is distressing to doctors who are committed to healing people
- There are many people who take months to recover from a bout of COVID-19. That will have a long-lasting burden on society and the economy.
By "flattening the curve", we are allowing more time to develop and test improved treatments, so that those who are infected are more likely to recover, and to face fewer long-term health impacts.
Like everything, there is a tradeoff between the economic & health impacts of different approaches.
- Different countries will take different approaches
- At the end, we may be able to look back and see which ones were more effective
Comparisons have already been made between Sweden (which had a fairly open, voluntary policy similar to the OP suggestion) and neighboring Scandinavian countries (which had a tighter lockdown).
- Sweden had higher fatalities
- Whether the Swedish economy fares better remains to be seen
- In the end, it comes back to "how much is a life worth?" (and some will ask "how much is an old life worth?")
Some medical statisticians calculate overall health policy tradeoffs by Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) or Quality-Adjusted Life Year (QALY)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disability-adjusted_life_year
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Despite what the governments media and anyone else tell you we are not ""on the second wave. A second wave is the reimmergence of a virus given unrestrained pervasion through a populace. This is the control of the first wave being eased. Second wave of Spanish flu was a mutation that did the damage of mass casualties amongst the young and healthy, the first wave gave the populace a substantial resistance to the mutation.
Yes herd immunity, people are suffering in other ways, cancer heart attacks are not in a good way. Shield the vulnerable and let it pass. Given that 2000 students 'up north' have the virus we will get a very clear picture of how dangerous this virus is to anyone under the age of 65 without health conditions, mortality at 2 percent means expect 40 deaths, if not suicides amongst the students are a greater worry!
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Despite what the governments media and anyone else tell you we are not ""on the second wave. A second wave is the reimmergence of a virus given unrestrained pervasion through a populace. This is the control of the first wave being eased. Second wave of Spanish flu was a mutation that did the damage of mass casualties amongst the young and healthy, the first wave gave the populace a substantial resistance to the mutation.
Yes herd immunity, people are suffering in other ways, cancer heart attacks are not in a good way. Shield the vulnerable and let it pass. Given that 2000 students 'up north' have the virus we will get a very clear picture of how dangerous this virus is to anyone under the age of 65 without health conditions, mortality at 2 percent means expect 40 deaths, if not suicides amongst the students are a greater worry!
Could not parse.
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Evan-eu you say the hospitals will explode but we now know a lot more about this virus and how to treat those who get it . Provided we shield those who are vulnerable what happened previously in our hospitals shouldn't happen again. Not only that locking everything down will cause deaths as people will stay away from hospitals preventing other conditions being noticed until it's to late
However I noticed there is no awnser to my question in regards to immunity .Do we really become immune if we get antibodies against this virus through herd immunity or vaccination. Or is it more of the case that we can still catch it but as our bodies have a head start we just don't get it as bad . Because if that is the case then it will never be eradicated as there will always be people who can pass it on and therefore it could in theory be with us forever .
And if it is gonna be with us forever and as we can't keep locking everything down every 3 months and that approach will eventually stop due to the financial impact what's the point in us locking everything down again now. Should we not instead be bold and decide on another way forward now such as only shielding the vulnerable.
Even if that was the way forward however I doubt anyone in a real position of authority would be brave enough to go against the current belief that the only way forward is lockdown .
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Problem is that COVID symptoms are not binary - "death or recovery".There is a very wide spectrum of persistent disability, and no evidence of lifelong immunity after apparent recovery. Added to which, the economic and social impact of knowing that you might kill someone by simply talking to them, even though you have no reason to believe you are ill, is beyond most people's experience.
A society with endemic COVID would be very different from anything we have imagined: everyone is a threat to everyone else, like the most repressive regimes except that the viral "secret police" has no motive and just kills or disables people at random.
Natural herd immunity is actually the immunity of the survivors. So you might return to a normal-ish society if you are prepared to tolerate the immediate loss of around 5% of the population followed by a reduced life expectancy and endemic disability until the population reduces to those who are genetically tolerant of infection. This has happened to fruit bats and grey squirrels, which have evolved by elimination into fairly stable populations but would, I think, be considered undesirable by most humans, especially those who are genetically analogous to red squirrels - and at present we don't know who they are.
The upside is that a human population limited to 20% of the current number would be indefinitely sustainable at a very comfortable standard of living. But achieving it by viral selection means there is an 80% probability that you and your descendants would not be among them.
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I doubt anyone in a real position of authority would be brave enough to go against the current belief that the only way forward is lockdown .
In the absence of vaccines and antibiotics, that is how our predecessors eliminated bubonic plague, and is the means by which we are currently preventing the spread of ebola and a few other tropical nasties. COVID is a bit more complicated because asymptomatic people are infectious, but the national quarantine ("lockdown" is a punishment, quarantine is a preventive) need only last a few weeks. That's a lot quicker, and vastly more effective and less harmful, than trying to develop a vaccine whilst lethal carriers stalk the streets and classrooms.
It will require the sacrifice of a few politicians, so there's no downside.
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Even if that was the way forward however I doubt anyone in a real position of authority would be brave enough to go against the current belief that the only way forward is lockdown .
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/scientists-call-for-herd-immunity-covid-strategy-for-young
Followed by
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/09/herd-immunity-letter-signed-fake-experts-dr-johnny-bananas-covid
It was only a few days ago actually.
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The problem is the way we are dealing with COVID 19 at the moment is no sustainable . The government cant keep borrowing forever and the financial well being of the UK will at some stage have to take precedence . If we must make changes to how we are dealing with the pandemic then there are not that many options available to us and forcing the population of the UK onto the herd immunity road map is the only other real option available .
Apparently less than 600 hundred people below the age of 45 have died of COVID 19 .and many of those 600 probably had an existing condition. So next question i suppose is , if you locked down all the vulnerable with an existing condition as well as all those over 45 and then allowed everyone under 45 to catch it, would enough of the population have then caught it for herd immunity to work . ?
Yes you will have a few who may suffer in the long term with long COVID but if herd immunity was achieved would the long term reduced death toll make it worthwhile.
Edit
As I was writing /posting that Petrochemicals posted his links above
PS Hi to everyone I haven't spoken to in many years . I see at least Bored chemist is still about after all these years .
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The government can't keep borrowing forever...
I think a lot of governments are borrowing at the moment. But they can't all be borrowing!
- Who is lending the money?
- Maybe they are borrowing from China, which apparently has a lot of foreign exchange available, after years of positive trade balances...
Eventually, some countries will decide to just print more money (which causes its own form of economic chaos in the form of inflation).
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Lockdown is really a nuisance to the economy and should be used only as a very last resort if the Nightingale ICU wards become overloaded. People under retirement age should be allowed to work normally but mask up and avoid large crowds. Retired people should be extra careful not to get within 2 metres of other people particularly if their health is not good. No draconian measures will then be necessary
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if the Nightingale ICU wards become overloaded.
OK,
Since they can't find enough staff they are overloaded.
(without medical staff, a hospital is a shed.)
So, by your analysis we should start the lockdown now.
and avoid large crowds.
If everybody is part of a small overlapping crowd, then epidemiologically, they are all part of the same large crowd.
Retired people should be extra careful not to get within 2 metres of other people
Once , as a consequence of this, they have all starved to death, the problem will be much less severe.
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People under retirement age should be allowed to work normally but mask up and avoid large crowds. Retired people should be extra careful not to get within 2 metres of other people particularly if their health is not good.
....for ever, regardless of the harm to themselves, society, and the holy economy.
Government is about making choices between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. National quarantine is unpalatable, endemic disease is unacceptable.
Boris Johnson tries to speak like Churchill but his puppetmaster thinks like Chamberlain. You cannot negotiate with a virus.
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https://god.dailydot.com/who-director-herd-immunity/?fbclid=IwAR05l11QiS6NqrsIAPdPvwWeW9h2Zobtg4YE071odY63mzngAhR9V9LS_KQ
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It's interesting that the sort of people who advocate herd immunity for COVID are pretty much those who denigrate vaccination - the only proven route (apart from centuries of Darwinian decimation) to herd immunity.
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Which then gets to a question which I previously asked .if my doctor says I can still catch the flu even though I’ve had the flu vaccine but won’t get It bad If I do, Would I still be able able to catch Covid 19 after I’ve had the Covid 19 vaccine.
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It's interesting that the sort of people who advocate herd immunity for COVID are pretty much those who denigrate vaccination - the only proven route (apart from centuries of Darwinian decimation) to herd immunity.
To be devicive, vaccine development does not usually shut down society. Polio vaccine invented 1955, us declared polio free 1979, now having see pictures of Woodstock and 'happydays' I do not believe that the US lockdown was as severe for polio as it is now, the young folks did a bit of socialising.
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Which then gets to a question which I previously asked .if my doctor says I can still catch the flu even though I’ve had the flu vaccine but won’t get It bad If I do, Would I still be able able to catch Covid 19 after I’ve had the Covid 19 vaccine.
You certainly won't get whichever flu you have been vaccinated against, as seriously as if you had not been vaccinated. But as flu viruses mutate very quickly, your vaccine is based on a best guess of the next flu and may not work at all.
There is enough evidence of COVID reinfection after recovery, that the longterm effectiveness of a vaccine is questionable.
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To be devicive, vaccine development does not usually shut down society. Polio vaccine invented 1955, us declared polio free 1979, now having see pictures of Woodstock and 'happydays' I do not believe that the US lockdown was as severe for polio as it is now, the young folks did a bit of socialising.
And there you have the problem. Salk vaccine was declared effective in 1953 and was available worldwide by 1955 but it took nearly a quarter of a century to eliminate the disease in the USA.
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Would I still be able able to catch Covid 19 after I’ve had the Covid 19 vaccine.
The reason we are not all getting vaccinated is that they are still testing the vaccine...
We can't know how well it will work. (Just think of the ethics.)
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Some good news on the radio this morning is that a laboratory testing can now be done instantly and there is no delay in getting the results provided there are several medical technicians available to keep feeding the samples into the machine.
So if we put similar machines into mobile breast scan vehicles and send them to universities or other hot spots we can identify who must isolate and who can return to normal. The problem with follow up and uncertainty is eliminated.
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“There is enough evidence of COVID reinfection after recovery, that the longterm effectiveness of a vaccine is questionable”
And will therefore if that is the case be with us forever unless herd immunity takes over.
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- There are many people who take months to recover from a bout of COVID-19. That will have a long-lasting burden on society and the economy.
By "flattening the curve", we are allowing more time to develop and test improved treatments, so that those who are infected are more likely to recover, and to face fewer long-term health impacts.
Like everything, there is a tradeoff between the economic & health impacts of different approaches.
- Different countries will take different approaches
- At the end, we may be able to look back and see which ones were more effective
- In the end, it comes back to "how much is a life worth?" (and some will ask "how much is an old life worth?")
What cost the Pandemic? Global Recession?
Which generation is going to pay for the borrowing to artificially support stock markets?
Which generation has the most to lose from the Pandemic?
Stock Market collapse caused by recession means many pensions are lost.
Lock down means no new social relationships, sex is a massive motivator for the young.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/federal-deficit-triples-429911
Should the younger generation be forced to stop enjoying their lives, to protect the elderly indefinitely who are inevitably destined to die in the near future of one cause or another > elderly those over 45 ;)
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It's odd; if you call it "herd immunity" it doesn't sound too bad.
If you call it " all the susceptible people dying" that rather brings into focus what it means.
I wonder if there's a correlation between support for herd immunity and support for eugenics; they are much the same process.
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Which generation has the most to lose from the Pandemic?
1. The generation that dies from it.
2. Next is the generation that suffers long-term disability from it
3. Those who suffer loss of income
- the government can help here, to prevent food riots;
- Juvenal (in Rome) described pacifying the population with "bread and circuses"
- The modern equivalent is support payments and Netflix
4. Those who have to pay off the debts of a previous generation
There are undoubtedly many marginal businesses and occupations that are based on outdated business models and artificial scarcity; these will be shaken up severely. A pandemic is reason to think about what really matters, and (I expect) will result in a much more efficient economy in the future.
- It has been a time to recruit the brains of the world to a single task
- The only other time this happens is in a war, which results in wholesale destruction of lives, infrastructure and economy
- After the second World War, government-dictated rationing continued for about 10 years in the UK
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationing_in_the_United_Kingdom#Later
> elderly those over 45
My mother-in-law talked about the "elderly people" in the retirement village where she is living... and she was already over 90 years old.
Elderly is relative, ie anyone older than you!
I understand that when the pandemic came down hard in Northern Italy, respirators were in such short supply that they were denied to everyone over 40. Would you have qualified for a respirator?
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There is enough evidence of COVID reinfection after recovery, that the longterm effectiveness of a vaccine is questionable.
There has been one confirmed case which hit the headlines in October, other reports such as South Korea were just residual infections.
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“There is enough evidence of COVID reinfection after recovery, that the longterm effectiveness of a vaccine is questionable”
And will therefore if that is the case be with us forever unless herd immunity takes over.
Yes and no. We do not have herd immunity to smallpox: we eliminated it. We do not have herd immunity to ebola, typhoid, leprosy, HIV, cholera, bubonic plague, polio....... we immunise and/or prevent their spread by quarantine. For the time being, the only weapon we have against COVID is quarantine, but effective quarantine requires competent government action, not posturing politicians making excuses.
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HIV is an interesting case amongst chimpanzees it seems that they carry a similar virus with no ill effects but who knows how many died to achieve this immunity.
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There is enough evidence of COVID reinfection after recovery, that the longterm effectiveness of a vaccine is questionable.
There has been one confirmed case which hit the headlines in October, other reports such as South Korea were just residual infections.
While the reinfection rate is so low that a single case makes newspaper headlines, I'm not too worried about it.
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HIV is an interesting case amongst chimpanzees it seems that they carry a similar virus with no ill effects but who knows how many died to achieve this immunity.
Is that the simian immune virus?
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My mother-in-law talked about the "elderly people" in the retirement village where she is living... and she was already over 90 years old.
Elderly is relative, ie anyone older than you!
I understand that when the pandemic came down hard in Northern Italy, respirators were in such short supply that they were denied to everyone over 40. Would you have qualified for a respirator?
Some people are elderley at 20 years old. The reason I stated over 45 is becuase your chances start going down hill at this age, due to underlying health issues etc.
I dont think I will need a resperator if I get it, I rarily get ill.
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Is that the simian immune virus?
SIV = Simian Immunodeficiency Virus
It is thought to have crossed over from chimpanzees into humans at least 4 times in the past century, from eating monkey meat.
- Let's face it, eating your relatives is not a good idea!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simian_immunodeficiency_virus
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Just a quick thought. To stop the NHS filling their ICU with retired people why don't we treat the over 80's in old folks or nursing homes. They do not have ICU's it is true but they could be supplied with oxygen if the patient has breathing difficulties and only move to hospital as a last resort.
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Because the last time HM Government moved COVID-infectious patients into old folks' homes, they killed thousands of old folk and their carers who had no previous infection and made the homes into no-go areas for the residents' families.
Even the idiot in Downing Street realises that was a Bad Idea.
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Just a quick thought. To stop the NHS filling their ICU with retired people why don't we ...
...stop spreading the damned virus!
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why don't we treat the over 80's in old folks or nursing homes. They do not have ICU's
Well,
why don't we treat the over 80's in old folks or nursing homes.
Because
They do not have ICU's
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Just a quick thought. To stop the NHS filling their ICU with retired people why don't we ...
...stop spreading the damned virus!
Because that would require Dominic Cummings' puppet to admit that his master was wrong and those bloody knowall scientists were right, just like they were about ebola and the Black Death.
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admit .... those bloody knowall scientists were right
Meanwhile, across the pond, Donald Trump criticised "Fauci and all these idiots"
- Dr Fauci encourages people to wear masks and employ social distancing
- Donald Trump holds large election rallies with no social distancing and ridicules mask-wearing
See: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-making-decisions-about-covid-19-dr-fauci-says-stay-away-from-the-politics-2020-10-19
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To stop the NHS filling their ICU with retired people .....
Have they reduced the retirement age??
Recent comment from NHS about falling death rate indicated 2 changes, one in treatment which is improving due to experience, second due to the majority of admissions now being 30-50 yr olds.
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All the more reason to get rid of those pesky pensioners who think that having paid taxes all their lives, they are entitiled to some sort of medical treatment when they get sick. Bloody cheek. Survival of the fittest demands that we kill everyone under 20 or over 40, for the sake of The Economy.
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I dont think I will need a resperator if I get it, I rarily get ill.
I rarely walk in front of a moving bus, but I have reason to believe that once is enough.
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Because the last time HM Government moved COVID-infectious patients into old folks' homes, they killed thousands of old folk and their carers who had no previous infection and made the homes into no-go areas for the residents' families.
Even the idiot in Downing Street realises that was a Bad Idea.
I was hearing yesterday aot of the people in the one home where on an end of life pathway, despite no corona more than a few have died due to lack of visits and the loss of hope.
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Norvic
I agree with you
You seem to be agreeing with someone who does not exist...
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Norvic
I agree with you
You seem to be agreeing with someone who does not exist...
Isn't everyone posting here agreeing or disagreeing with someone who, from a personal viewpoint, doesn't really exist
The whole experience has a Zen-like appeal, don't you think?