The Naked Scientists
  • Login
  • Register
  • Podcasts
      • The Naked Scientists
      • eLife
      • Naked Genetics
      • Naked Astronomy
      • In short
      • Naked Neuroscience
      • Ask! The Naked Scientists
      • Question of the Week
      • Archive
      • Video
      • SUBSCRIBE to our Podcasts
  • Articles
      • Science News
      • Features
      • Interviews
      • Answers to Science Questions
  • Get Naked
      • Donate
      • Do an Experiment
      • Science Forum
      • Ask a Question
  • About
      • Meet the team
      • Our Sponsors
      • Site Map
      • Contact us

User menu

  • Login
  • Register
  • Home
  • Help
  • Search
  • Tags
  • Member Map
  • Recent Topics
  • Login
  • Register
  1. Naked Science Forum
  2. Life Sciences
  3. The Environment
  4. When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« previous next »
  • Print
Pages: [1]   Go Down

When will our climate get to the point of no return?

  • 11 Replies
  • 1447 Views
  • 4 Tags

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Katie King (OP)

  • First timers
  • *
  • 1
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 1 times
  • Naked Scientists Intern
    • View Profile
When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« on: 08/11/2021 15:51:46 »
Christine wrote in to ask:

"How much time have we, as humanity, left to prevent the point of no return for our climate?"

How long do you reckon we have left?
Logged
 
The following users thanked this post: Zer0



Online alancalverd

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 14206
  • Activity:
    100%
  • Thanked: 1077 times
  • life is too short to drink instant coffee
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #1 on: 08/11/2021 15:58:55 »
If you look at the data from the Vostok ice cores, we've been here every 100,000 years for at least the last half million years, and slowly returned to an ice age each time. http://euanmearns.com/the-vostok-ice-core-temperature-co2-and-ch4

I haven't seen a convincing explanation of how it happened (I'm not allowed to post my own here) but unless the laws of physics have changed, there's no reason to suspect it won't happen again.
Logged
helping to stem the tide of ignorance
 
The following users thanked this post: Zer0

Online Origin

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 1184
  • Activity:
    26.5%
  • Thanked: 76 times
  • Do good and avoid evil.
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #2 on: 08/11/2021 15:59:42 »
Quote from: Katie King on 08/11/2021 15:51:46
Christine wrote in to ask:

"How much time have we, as humanity, left to prevent the point of no return for our climate?"

How long do you reckon we have left?

Nobody knows for sure.  That is why it seems like a pretty dangerous experiment we running on the earth, IMO.
Logged
 

Online Origin

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 1184
  • Activity:
    26.5%
  • Thanked: 76 times
  • Do good and avoid evil.
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #3 on: 08/11/2021 16:07:31 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 08/11/2021 15:58:55
If you look at the data from the Vostok ice cores, we've been here every 100,000 years for at least the last half million years, and slowly returned to an ice age each time. http://euanmearns.com/the-vostok-ice-core-temperature-co2-and-ch4
We have never been here before, man made global warming is unique.
Quote from: alancalverd on 08/11/2021 15:58:55
I haven't seen a convincing explanation of how it happened (I'm not allowed to post my own here)
When it comes to science I always go with the experts, so in this case I listen to Climatologists and not anonymous people on the internet or politicians.
Logged
 

Offline Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 27189
  • Activity:
    100%
  • Thanked: 908 times
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #4 on: 08/11/2021 16:13:03 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 08/11/2021 15:58:55
we've been here every 100,000 years
No.
The rate of change in CO2 levels is unprecedented.
Quote from: Origin on 08/11/2021 16:07:31
in this case I listen to Climatologists and not anonymous people on the internet or politicians.
Even asking a cartoonist is likely to work.

https://xkcd.com/1732/
Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 



Online alancalverd

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 14206
  • Activity:
    100%
  • Thanked: 1077 times
  • life is too short to drink instant coffee
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #5 on: 08/11/2021 18:08:01 »
Ignoring 95% of the evidence is never a good starting point. On my planet, 20,000<<500,000. But the present cycle which began around 25,000 BC looks pretty much like all the others so far.
Logged
helping to stem the tide of ignorance
 

Offline Zer0

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • 903
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 85 times
  • Homo EviliUs
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #6 on: 08/11/2021 20:13:41 »
Hello Katie King!
🙏
On behalf of All of Us here, Welcome to the Forum.
(You need not respond, it's understandable)
👍

Thank you for such a sensitive & concerning question Christine.
(I'm no expert, but still i know, things are changing, i am my own witness)

" Finally, Earth is currently in an interglacial period (a period of milder climate between Ice Ages). If there were no human influences on climate, scientists say Earth’s current orbital positions within the Milankovitch cycles predict our planet should be cooling, not warming, continuing a long-term cooling trend that began 6,000 years ago. "

Original Source -
https://climate.nasa.gov/blog/2949/why-milankovitch-orbital-cycles-cant-explain-earths-current-warming/

Special Thanks - Alan Buis/NASA JPL.

Ps - I'm not sure about how much time All of Us have left, but i can sense & feel that it has already begun.
🤞

EDIT - hmm, a bit skeptical currently.
Cause the Info i provided states that the Planet should be cooling, but it's not, & staying warmer.
Hence a bit confused as to whether warm climate is better, or cold climate.
« Last Edit: 15/11/2021 13:01:02 by Zer0 »
Logged
1N73LL1G3NC3  15  7H3  481L17Y  70  4D4P7  70  CH4NG3.
 

Online evan_au

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 10235
  • Activity:
    38%
  • Thanked: 1227 times
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #7 on: 09/11/2021 08:15:11 »
I think that Earth would have to be pretty far gone to end up like Venus - and that probably will happen as the Sun uses up its Hydrogen fuel.

The current problem has to do with habitat loss/fragmentation and increasing temperatures.
- This pushes the habitable zone of a species towards the poles - provided there is a continuous habitat all the way there. But habitat fragmentation means that many species cannot move towards the poles
- And/Or this pushes the habitable zone of a species up mountains - provided there is a continuous habitat all the way there.
- So some species will die on the shores of an ocean that they can't cross, and others will die on the tops of mountains
- Genetic drift will be able to compensate, to some extent, but there are concerns about the speed of the change required
- Transplanting species to other continents may cause disruption of other ecosystems
- Zoos might provide a temporary respite for remnant populations

So I expect that the planet will recover eventually in the next glacial period, but in the meantime, we will have lost many species.
- The species that survive will be the weeds that can live anywhere
- And the humans:- provided some very nasty pandemic doesn't take us all out (are humans another weed species?)
Logged
 

Offline Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 27189
  • Activity:
    100%
  • Thanked: 908 times
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #8 on: 09/11/2021 08:31:29 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 08/11/2021 18:08:01
Ignoring 95% of the evidence is never a good starting point. On my planet, 20,000<<500,000. But the present cycle which began around 25,000 BC looks pretty much like all the others so far.
Again, you are making a false claim.
It doesn't look like the others.
It is a hundred times faster.

"Measurements from older ice cores (discussed below) confirm that both the magnitude and rate of the recent increase are almost certainly unprecedented over the last 800,000 years. The fastest large natural increase measured in older ice cores is around 20ppmv (parts per million by volume) in 1,000 years (a rate seen during Earth’s emergence from the last ice age around 12,000 years ago). CO2 concentration increased by the same amount, 20ppmv, in the last 10 years"
From
https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-and-climate-change/
Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 



Offline Petrochemicals

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 2449
  • Activity:
    31%
  • Thanked: 94 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #9 on: 09/11/2021 10:34:34 »
Depends on the definition of point  no return. For animal life, plant life, for human existence, or great whites on the east coast?
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 

Online alancalverd

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 14206
  • Activity:
    100%
  • Thanked: 1077 times
  • life is too short to drink instant coffee
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #10 on: 09/11/2021 17:13:54 »
"Point of no return" seems unlikely in the foreseeable future. If humans are responsible for climate change, it will almost certainly limit human activity before all the methane clathrates are vaporised. Looking at chalk deposits, it's pretty clear that the planet had enough water to support life when there was a lot more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, so microorganisms will eventually restore something approaching a pre-human ecology when we have made it uninhabitable for ourselves.
Logged
helping to stem the tide of ignorance
 

Offline walnutclose

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • 13
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 3 times
  • Retired STEM Professional, Gentleman Farmer
    • View Profile
Re: When will our climate get to the point of no return?
« Reply #11 on: 01/01/2022 23:23:12 »
Quote from: Katie King on 08/11/2021 15:51:46
"How much time have we, as humanity, left to prevent the point of no return for our climate?"

Depends on your meaning for "point of no return."  If you mean, when do we get to where we cannot avoid in the lifetime of the next several generations of humans, significant and disruptive impacts, we're already there.   The more we add to the forcing function, the more significant those impacts become, but we've already locked in quite a bit of anthropogenic change.

If you mean, as some do, when do we get to the point where Homo sapiens is doomed, likely never, unless our response to climate change is to start a nuclear war and induce nuclear winter, civilization may take one hell of a beating, but enough net primary productivity in the biosphere will survive that humans will likely survive.

If you mean, when do we wipe out life on earth - not going to happen.   Life on earth has survived and come roaring back from far worse cataclysms than what we're doing.
Logged
 
The following users thanked this post: Origin



  • Print
Pages: [1]   Go Up
« previous next »
Tags: climate  / environment  / tipping point  / point of no return 
 

Similar topics (5)

Do Polar Bears Hibernate in the same manner as other bears given their climate?

Started by Karen W.Board Plant Sciences, Zoology & Evolution

Replies: 6
Views: 12064
Last post 12/01/2019 04:42:19
by Karen W.
How can a small change in CO2 make a large change in climate?

Started by Imogen Game Board The Environment

Replies: 9
Views: 9803
Last post 28/03/2019 07:42:02
by ConnorGunning
James Cameron's "Avatar" and Climate Change

Started by wiseupBoard The Environment

Replies: 8
Views: 10098
Last post 16/01/2010 05:09:26
by litespeed
Can we conduct a climate model "acid test"?

Started by MarkPawelekBoard That CAN'T be true!

Replies: 79
Views: 17099
Last post 14/11/2019 21:45:35
by Bored chemist
Which scientists say we've just 18 months to "save planet from climate change"?

Started by MarkPawelekBoard The Environment

Replies: 73
Views: 16538
Last post 31/08/2019 15:03:54
by Bored chemist
There was an error while thanking
Thanking...
  • SMF 2.0.15 | SMF © 2017, Simple Machines
    Privacy Policy
    SMFAds for Free Forums
  • Naked Science Forum ©

Page created in 0.131 seconds with 61 queries.

  • Podcasts
  • Articles
  • Get Naked
  • About
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Privacy Policy
  • Subscribe to newsletter
  • We love feedback

Follow us

cambridge_logo_footer.png

©The Naked Scientists® 2000–2017 | The Naked Scientists® and Naked Science® are registered trademarks created by Dr Chris Smith. Information presented on this website is the opinion of the individual contributors and does not reflect the general views of the administrators, editors, moderators, sponsors, Cambridge University or the public at large.