Naked Science Forum
General Discussion & Feedback => Just Chat! => Topic started by: Petrochemicals on 08/01/2021 23:40:18
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Once again, I can't go for an unnecessary drive in a car, can't play golf, can't go and see someone else in their garden, yet I can go indoors to a church, can send a child to nursery, and can order from the internet businesses with industrial sweatshops. It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona. It is a complete waste of my time, and is patently unfair. At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
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can send a child to nursery, .... At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
If (as claimed), this new COVID strain is more efficient at infecting children, then closing schools and nursery care may become necessary, otherwise these will turn into virus-spreading hubs.
- It will be difficult to get 2 year-old children to wear a mask consistently
- but it may be possible - I don't know that anyone has really tried
- You could turn it into a game!
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It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona.
Got evidence for that?
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Not sure about "sweatshops". The whole point of online business is that fewer people distribute more goods, customers are physically segregated from staff, and the handling process involves minimal human contact, so there is less likelihood of anyone infecting anyone else for a given volume of trade.
The reason for taking lockdown seriously is that it will kill most retail businesses permanently and change the shape of cities.
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can send a child to nursery, .... At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
If (as claimed), this new COVID strain is more efficient at infecting children, then closing schools and nursery care may become necessary, otherwise these will turn into virus-spreading hubs.
- It will be difficult to get 2 year-old children to wear a mask consistently
- but it may be possible - I don't know that anyone has really tried
- You could turn it into a game!
I don't think masks are a factor when children of that age are exploring with their mouths, Boris has 5 children, how does he not know that children lick everything and that they have runny noses that they wipe everywhere on a pretty much weekly basis? The schools are pretty much open anyway.
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-08/covid-concerns-over-lack-of-school-spaces-for-key-workers-children
Not sure about "sweatshops". The whole point of online business is that fewer people distribute more goods, customers are physically segregated from staff, and the handling process involves minimal human contact, so there is less likelihood of anyone infecting anyone else for a given volume of trade.
The reason for taking lockdown seriously is that it will kill most retail businesses permanently and change the shape of cities.
you can still get on a bus and go to work painting houses or something like that. So can children.
https://www.citb.co.uk/about-citb/news-events-and-blogs/uk/2021/01/citb-coronavirus-response-chief-exec-update-6-january-2021/
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3061338/amp/Sports-Direct-branded-sweatshop-working-conditions-compared-Victorian-era-bosses-accused-punishing-employees-talk.html
But still I can't go and play golf outdoors for a few hours a week in a car after isolating all week and being careful. Why should I bother?
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Still a waste of time.
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Why should I be bothered with lockdown?
Because it's one of the most effective ways to slow the spread of the virus.
- And that's one of the most effective ways to ensure that there are spare ICU beds if/when you need one.
Or you could just be interested in not getting a fine
- Or having some "me" time
There are numerous ways to run a lockdown:
- If people have been exposed to a known infected carrier, there is really no substitute for them staying indoors for 14 days, in their own home (and someone checking up on them periodically). With a test to show that they aren't infected at the end.
- If it's just an attempt to reduce virus spread, then allowing people to go outside for an hour of exercise or shopping per day is an acceptable risk. But a wearing mask is important*
- Reducing the distance that people are allowed to travel in their hour of freedom reduces the speed of spread through a city.
- There must be exceptions for "essential workers" and medical appointments. There are endless variations on how that is interpreted.
* Masks were only made mandatory last week in my state - and that applies if you go to an indoor location like a shop or a church
PS: As the Roman poet Juvenal said, people mostly want bread and circuses:
- There needs to be some financial support during lockdown, so people can buy food (eg bread)
- NETFLIX (and similar services) provide the entertainment (circuses)
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bread_and_circuses
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One reason that the epidemic has spread slightly more slowly in the USA than the UK, despite the best efforts of gun-toting idiots to infect as many people as possible, is the lack of intercity commuting. It has thus been possible, at least in principle, to isolate areas of high incidence without travel bans because nobody commutes regularly between, say Chicago and New York. But frequent travel for business or pleasure between, say, Birmingham and Bristol is no big deal - indeed part of the daily or weekly grind for many people - so a pool of infection in one city can become a source in another.
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Still Pointless
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av-embeds/55668521/vpid/p09410yt
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Still Pointless
...said the lemming to the parachute salesman.
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Still Pointless
...said the lemming to the parachute salesman.
Well Boris is flogging ones made out of sieves
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Still Pointless
...said the lemming to the parachute salesman.
Well Boris is flogging ones made out of sieves
LOL
Early parachutes were made from cloth- full of holes.
But they worked.
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And made worse by idiots shooting at it as they descend.
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And made worse by idiots shooting at it as they descend.
Unfortunately they are not descending just yet, just gaining altitude at a slower rate.
From London the place that is shipping its patients to other areas to fill their hospitals up too, the R rate is now at "only" ~1.05~ after a month of lockdown, great, soon other peoples hospitals will be full, London leads the rest of the country is impinge upon. A dangerous waste of time.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55676639
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A dangerous waste of time.
So you would prefer a larger value of R? What would be your preferred value?
R for London fell gradually to 1 in early December but rose rapidly everywhere as soon as Christmas was Saved, reaching 1.35 in London by 23 December. Best current estimate is 1.05. So lockdown does exactly what it is supposed to do: reduce R.
Interestingly, the current value for London is lower than any other statistical region, but we mustn't let facts cloud a good rant, must we?
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A dangerous waste of time.
So you would prefer a larger value of R? What would be your preferred value?
after a month I'd expect a bit more, time is finite Alan, so are hospital resources,
R for London fell gradually to 1 in early December but rose rapidly everywhere as soon as Christmas was Saved, reaching 1.35 in London by 23 December. Best current estimate is 1.05. So lockdown does exactly what it is supposed to do: reduce R.
your answer belies the fact that it is still increasing but time and hospital places are not, infections usually dip over holiday periods and pick up afterwardsInterestingly, the current value for London is lower than any other statistical region, but we mustn't let facts cloud a good rant, must we?
Evidently not
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your answer belies the fact that it is still increasing
Date R London
11/12 1.0
18/12 1.2
23/12 1.4
08/01 1.3
15/01 1.1
looks to me as though it increased when lockdown was lifted, and is now decreasing. These figures obviously underestimate the decrease because they are necessarily retrospective: the number published each Friday represents what actually happened in the previous 7 days. But then I have the political disadvantage of being numerate.
infections usually dip over holiday periods and pick up afterwards
I know of no data that supports your argument. We know that reported deaths decrease during short holiday periods and spike immediately afterwards, because registries close for public holidays and publish numbers for the dates that the reports are filed, not the reported date of death.
All the current evidence and knowledge gained since the days of Pasteur and Semmelweiss suggests that infections increase during holidays because people travel and meet. But then I'm only a clinical scientist - what do I know about clinical science?
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Interestingly, the current value for London is lower than any other statistical region, but we mustn't let facts cloud a good rant, must we?]
Evidently not
Current best estimates of R
London East Midland NE/Yorks NW SE SW
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4
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time is finite
As far as we know, time is at least semi-infinite, having started at the Big Bang if not before, and having no obvious endpoint.
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R rate is now at "only" ~1.05~ after a month of lockdown,
Christmas happened in the last month, so we have not had a month of lockdown. We have probably has the largest event of people moving round the country since the first lockdown.
Why do you even try to base your arguments on assertions that are clearly false?
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Interestingly, the current value for London is lower than any other statistical region, but we mustn't let facts cloud a good rant, must we?]
Evidently not
Current best estimates of R
London East Midland NE/Yorks NW SE SW
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.4
The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.
I think you will find the point of London being a lower R number was made by you in your non specific tirade. Let's try another.
Who's the best at being an Alan?
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your answer belies the fact that it is still increasing
Date R London
11/12 1.0
18/12 1.2
23/12 1.4
08/01 1.3
15/01 1.1
looks to me as though it increased when lockdown was lifted, and is now decreasing. These figures obviously underestimate the decrease because they are necessarily retrospective: the number published each Friday represents what actually happened in the previous 7 days. But then I have the political disadvantage of being numerate.
the R number means increase if over one, you cannot have forgotten that. Your answer once more is deceptive and diversive.
infections usually dip over holiday periods and pick up afterwards
I know of no data that supports your argument. We know that reported deaths decrease during short holiday periods and spike immediately afterwards, because registries close for public holidays and publish numbers for the dates that the reports are filed, not the reported date of death.
the bit above contradicts the bit belowAll the current evidence and knowledge gained since the days of Pasteur and Semmelweiss suggests that infections increase during holidays because people travel and meet. But then I'm only a clinical scientist - what do I know about clinical science?
I've left you an easy out Alan, it's because the mail is controlled by trump hitler.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8744063/amp/Septembers-normal-increase-coughs-colds-causing-utter-chaos-post-lockdown-Britain.html
Although it sort of happened this September, amazing really, who knew?
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the bit above contradicts the bit below
No, it doesn't.
One refers to Reports
The other refers to Infections.
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Although it sort of happened this September,
The schools reopened and, as predicted, they passed the virus on.
Even the Daily Fail would think twice about calling a doubling of the death rate a " normal increase in coughs and colds".
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the R number means increase if over one
Nobody said that it didn't- if you are talking about cases- but nobody was.
The question is whether R itself was increasing.
And you have the cheek to say
Your answer once more is deceptive and diversive.
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The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.
See Reply # 16 above, or give us your definition of "descending". Please note that Trumpian mathematics and language become officially invalid on 20 January.
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The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.
See Reply # 16 above, or give us your definition of "descending". Please note that Trumpian mathematics and language become officially invalid on 20 January.
As stated previously, the R number means an increase if over one. This trump ban sounds like its got you worried.
https://www.newscientist.com/term/r-number/
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Ah! I see your problem.
Reading back through a few posts, you don't understand the meaning of "it". Easily fixed. The pronoun refers to the last previously mentioned neuter entity. AFAIK this is a pretty common convention in all European languages, and really quite important in science and medicine.
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Ah! I see your problem.
Reading back through a few posts, you don't understand the meaning of "it". Easily fixed. The pronoun refers to the last previously mentioned neuter entity. AFAIK this is a pretty common convention in all European languages, and really quite important in science and medicine.
As I said before you have a propensity to answer your own points and divert your argument away to it rather than within the context of the thread
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Still rising, still no golf, still half hearted.
www.standard.co.uk/news/health/no-strong-evidence-coronavirus-of-levels-decreasing-in-england-b900537.html%3famp
The same experts also suggested that the national R rate - the the average number of people each infected person passes the disease onto - is 1.04, meaning the epidemic is still increasing in size
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And it will continue to exceed 1 for at least another couple of weeks. The moment it dips below 1, our beloved leaders will re-open the flood gates and find a hidden stash of vaccines in the hope of not losing too many Conservative seats in the May council elections. But R will pick up again and exceed 1.5 by the end of March.
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A mickey take
www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55843506
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29january2021#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
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A mickey take
www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55843506
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29january2021#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19
You forgot to say anything meaningful.
Were you planning to add something like " about 1 person in 50 has had the virus and 100,000 of them died, so if we let the other 95% catch it we could expect a worst case death toll of about 50 times 100,000 i.e. about 5 million."?
That's certainly an answer to the question "Why should I be bothered with lockdown? " unless you feel that 5 million dead is a reasonable price to pay for your selfishness.
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Remember that is 2% of those tested in two weeks. But the infection lasts a lot longer, and you don't test people who have already been tested. A very conservative estimate would be that all those who tested positive in the past 4 weeks are infected and infectious - closer to 5 %. So there are currently about 3,300,000 active carriers in the UK, of whom we can expect around 670,000 to require hospital treatment and maybe 100,000 to die within the government-mandated 28 days.
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Hot off the presses,
Government learns how to deal with corona from film
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55917374
And the only legal quarantine measures government finds too difficult to implement.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55921150
Also, government unbelievably incompetent time wasters.
(https://www.newstatesman.com/sites/default/files/styles/cropped_article_image/public/blogs_2020/11/gettyimages-1229801538_0.jpg?itok=gJQFvaTj&c=f37c042690bb183bb7817737b31fd55d)
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The stench of bullshit and incompetence pervades all government edicts. There's a heck of a difference between a crew hauling 50 tons of food, and the same crew moving 200 passengers. Crews can be isolated in their own bubble for months (ask any sailor or marine) and present no hazard to anyone else, and goods can be quarantined for hours or days if necessary, but a passenger from anywhere is a potential disaster.
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Government learns how to deal with corona from film
It's a pity they didn't watch it earlier.
They seem to be involved in some sort of contest to see who can make the most stupid statement
Dido Harding: 'None of us were able to predict' coronavirus would mutate
UK can’t close borders as island nation ‘unlike Australia’, says Grant Shapps
Brexit secretary Dominic Raab says he ‘hadn’t quite understood’ importance of Dover-Calais crossing
I lead a life of blameless domesticity and always have done :Boris Johnson.
Health Secretary blames Harry Potter for embarrassing Marcus Rashford name howler
The list goes on.
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It's clearly time to depose the corrupt and incompetent government by force.
Problem is, what do we want?
Anyone with an IQ exceeding 100 wants a full quarantine until we have no new COVID cases for a month, and continuing quarantine for all travellers until the rest of the world cleans up its act.
According to the newspapers written for those with an IQ below 100, the other half want to go to pubs, festivals and Ibiza 'cos it ain't right to deprive us of our liberty and we all have mental health issues and kids need to be bullied at school.
So a clean coup will descend into civil war just like it always does on the telly.
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It's clearly time to depose the corrupt and incompetent government by force.
Problem is, what do we want?
Anyone with an IQ exceeding 100 wants a full quarantine until we have no new COVID cases for a month, and continuing quarantine for all travellers until the rest of the world cleans up its act.
According to the newspapers written for those with an IQ below 100, the other half want to go to pubs, festivals and Ibiza 'cos it ain't right to deprive us of our liberty and we all have mental health issues and kids need to be bullied at school.
So a clean coup will descend into civil war just like it always does on the telly.
It is manageable Alan and it is unfair to deprive us of freedom. No one stopped you during Hong Kong Flu, no one stopped you during the Aids emergence, but the key there was mitigation. You can mitigate with a total lockdown and you can mitigate with specific measures as in Sweden, but as the UK has proven you can't do both at the same time.
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50 years ago, HKF killed about 30,000 people in the UK with no restrictions. So far, COVID has killed over 100,000 despite all sorts of partial restrictions. This does not compare favorably with Australia (900 deaths) or New Zealand (25 deaths) with almost identical demographics but strict quarantines.
Mitigation by doing nothing and accepting a continuing 2 - 4% increase in death rates and 10 % increase in longterm disability may appeal to you, but prevention is better if you have any interest in public health and economics. The best time to introduce quarantine is always yesterday, but today is a practical compromise.
There was no "mitigation" for AIDS, only avoidance. Problem with an airborne infection is that you can't advise people not to breathe.
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50 years ago, HKF killed about 30,000 people in the UK with no restrictions.
Are you saying 30,000 fatalities is OK Alan? I am utterly gobsmacked.
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You really don't understand numbers, do you?
30,000 is not OK. 110,250 (today's figure) with no limit in sight, is 3.675 times worse. Without restrictions, the current UK figure would probably be about 2,500,000.
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You really don't understand numbers, do you?
30,000 is not OK. 110,250 (today's figure) with no limit in sight, is 3.675 times worse. Without restrictions, the current UK figure would probably be about 2,500,000.
We must lock down then Alan during the flu season too Alan.
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If you are faced with a highly infectious disease with a high morbidity and mortality rate, no cure and no known preventive vaccine, rapid and efficient quarantine may prevent a disaster.
Unfortunately rapid and efficient does not describe the current government of the United Kingdom, which is why we now have a long drawn out economic and social disaster instead of a functioning society recovering from a one month preventive quarantine that should have been instituted a year ago.
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This "coronavirus" is very mild. It doesn't kill many people. So why should we shut down the entire country.
Isn't that like saying: "Cars kill some people by running over them in the road. So we should ban cars. And shut down all the roads"
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It doesn't kill many people.
For a while, recently, it was the biggest single cause of death in the UK.
And the point of lockdown was to stop it getting even worse than that.
So, by what criterion are you saying
This "coronavirus" is very mild. It doesn't kill many people.
Or did you just think it would be fun to insult the nearest and dearest of the 2,300,000 (and rising) victims?
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Bored Chemist, you are widely known as the "enfant terrible" of this website. With your insulting attitude.
This is OK. The website needs stirring up by your irruptions. Science would not progress, unless it was disturbed by people such as Galileo, Newton, Darwin, and you.
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Bored Chemist, you are widely known as the "enfant terrible" of this website. With your insulting attitude.
This is OK. The website needs stirring up by your irruptions. Science would not progress, unless it was disturbed by people such as Galileo, Newton, Darwin, and you.
That's interesting. (Obviously wrong, since what I do is bang on about solidly established science rather than changing it a la Darwin or Newton)
What do you think that you contribute?
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If you are faced with a highly infectious disease with a high morbidity and mortality rate, no cure and no known preventive vaccine, rapid and efficient quarantine may prevent a disaster.
Unfortunately rapid and efficient does not describe the current government of the United Kingdom, which is why we now have a long drawn out economic and social disaster instead of a functioning society recovering from a one month preventive quarantine that should have been instituted a year ago.
But in most years the flu toll is 5000 to 10000 people who could all be saved with quarantine. Are you just going to kill these people Alan.
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If you are faced with a highly infectious disease with a high morbidity and mortality rate, no cure and no known preventive vaccine, rapid and efficient quarantine may prevent a disaster.
Unfortunately rapid and efficient does not describe the current government of the United Kingdom, which is why we now have a long drawn out economic and social disaster instead of a functioning society recovering from a one month preventive quarantine that should have been instituted a year ago.
But in most years the flu toll is 5000 to 10000 people who could all be saved with quarantine. Are you just going to kill these people Alan.
Do you understand that 100,000 is bigger than 10,000?
And, of course, quarantine isn't the only way to prevent the flu, we have a flu vaccine
And of course the 100,000 death toll is WITH a lockdown. The number would obviously be bigger without, whereas the flu death toll is without a lockdown.
But apart from those statements of the damned obvious, yes you have a point.
We probably should improve the resilience of the NHS in general. The obvious way to do that is to fund it properly.
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Covid-19 doesn't kill on a large scale. It's not like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
So why this hysterical reaction to it? That's what I can't understand.
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Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe
?
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Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe
?
??
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Covid-19 doesn't kill on a large scale. It's not like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
So why this hysterical reaction to it? That's what I can't understand.
It killed more than that. But people self isolated on the basis of personal peril, unfortunatley due to terrible hygiene, poor health and rife disease that was all of the population . The rich left town to isolate somewhere nice, the poor shut themselves away and the body collectors walked round uttering the immortal phrase "bring out the dead" and caught haemorrhagic fever. It still killed over 50 percent of people at a time when life expectancy was beneath 45, infertility due to ill health was almost as effective as modern contraception and something like 1 in 20 people born reached 21.
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Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe
?
??
!
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Covid-19 doesn't kill on a large scale. It's not like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
So why this hysterical reaction to it? That's what I can't understand.
It killed more than that. But people self isolated on the basis of personal peril, unfortunatley due to terrible hygiene, poor health and rife disease that was all of the population . The rich left town to isolate somewhere nice, the poor shut themselves away and the body collectors walked round uttering the immortal phrase "bring out the dead" and caught haemorrhagic fever. It still killed over 50 percent of people at a time when life expectancy was beneath 45, infertility due to ill health was almost as effective as modern contraception and something like 1 in 20 people born reached 21.
You give a graphic description of the Middle Ages. And the pain they caused. But we aren't in the Middle Ages.
We are in a modern Scientific era. With powerful vaccines. These can snuff out viruses. The viruses are stuffed.
So why be so defeatist? Do you think that a bit of RNA wrapped in a spikey protein coat, can defeat us?
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But in most years the flu toll is 5000 to 10000 people who could all be saved with quarantine. Are you just going to kill these people Alan.
No need. There are enough people who object to taking the simplest and most effective preventive measure against epidemic, to ensure that the entirely avoidable death toll from COVID continues to rise, so I am sure that you and your kind can promote seasonal flu, bubonic plague and anything else that takes your fancy, without my help.
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Is equating Covid-19 to Bubonic Plague, a valid comparison
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Covid-19 doesn't kill on a large scale. It's not like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
Thanks to the hysterical reaction of hospitalising the worst affected (Nightingale, 1860) and giving them supplemental oxygen (Priestley, 1774) antibiotics (Fleming, 1928) and dexamethasone (Hench, 1957) the mortality rate of COVID has been restricted from 20% to about 3%. Without hysterical adequate diet (Widdowson,1940) and sanitation (Bazalgette,1819) it is likely that the untreated death rate could indeed reach medieval levels.
But that's modern life for you - just hysteria piled on irrationality. Time to rid ourselves of all this scientific flummery and get back to oldfashioned faith and fatalism. It worked brilliantly in South Korea a few months ago when a group met to pray for deliverance at a special Mass. One communicant even brought a sample of COVID with him and distributed it via the chalice, thus sentencing 40 other parishioners to eternal life.
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Some readers of this forum, might get this impression:
That certain regular posters on here are part of a conspiracy. Whose aim is to overthrow society, and bring about a revolution.
And in order to advance the revolution, they are deliberately exaggerating the dangers of Covid-19.
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But in most years the flu toll is 5000 to 10000 people who could all be saved with quarantine. Are you just going to kill these people Alan.
No need. There are enough people who object to taking the simplest and most effective preventive measure against epidemic, to ensure that the entirely avoidable death toll from COVID continues to rise, so I am sure that you and your kind can promote seasonal flu, bubonic plague and anything else that takes your fancy, without my help.
That doesn't quite answer the point Alan. Covid-19 doesn't kill on a large scale. It's not like the Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
Thanks to the hysterical reaction of hospitalising the worst affected (Nightingale, 1860) and giving them supplemental oxygen (Priestley, 1774) antibiotics (Fleming, 1928) and dexamethasone (Hench, 1957) the mortality rate of COVID has been restricted from 20% to about 3%. Without hysterical adequate diet (Widdowson,1940) and sanitation (Bazalgette,1819) it is likely that the untreated death rate could indeed reach medieval levels.
I believe the 20 percent mortality Alan is amongst those with underlying health conditions. So far only 600 ish people beneath the age of 50 with no underlying health conditions have succumbed, so with the drop in road deaths we are in profit, although I do not know how many more have passed away due to an increase in bee stings and food allergies.
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Some readers of this forum, might get this impression:
That certain regular posters on here are part of a conspiracy. Whose aim is to overthrow society, and bring about a revolution.
And in order to advance the revolution, they are deliberately exaggerating the dangers of Covid-19.
Some might get that impression.
In fact the exaggeration ruins the other way.
he Black Death, which killed half the population of Europe,
That figure of "half" is almost the upper bound to the usual range given for the death rate which is 30 to 60%
And then we have a claim- based on no evidence that
It killed more than that.
Which is all very exciting, but irrelevant.
The black death would hardly kill anyone in the rich Western world today.
We have well over a century of experience of vaccinating against it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_vaccine
And it is treatable with antibiotics.
Essentially, as Alan pointed out.
The black death is irrelevant.
So you have to wonder why anyone raised it unless they were deliberately scaremongering.
On the other hand
they are deliberately exaggerating the dangers of Covid-19.
OK, lets have a quick look at that danger.
At it's latest peak (With BoJo in charge I think we might get more peaks later), Covid was killing about 1800 people per day.
Cancer- all of them put together- kills roughly 500 per day.
Coronary heart disease kills about 170
Dementia kills about 180
For a few days covid was killing more than all other causes put together.
How would I go about exaggerating that if I wanted to?
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I believe the 20 percent mortality Alan is amongst those with underlying health conditions.
Around 20% of those known to be infected require some medical intervention that would not be available in the absence of what Charles calls hysteria but most people call science. I have listed a few of the common interventions in Reply #28 above. These have largely replaced eye of newt, though leeches are still used for hand surgery and maggots are effective for gangrene. Salicylic acid was available in the Middle Ages but is not effective against COVID, and cobwebs only work for superficial abrasions, not lung disease. Quarantine, however, remains the most effective prevention short of 100% vaccination.
Hysteria is often accompanied by excessively emphatic use of language. Being a boring old fart of a scientist I prefer numbers to adjectives but those I have used in this thread include "simplest", "effective" and "avoidable" - not the language of a screaming hysteric. Society has already been damaged, possibly beyond repair, by government inaction, so no need for me to start a revolution.
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an increase in bee stings and food allergies.
Citation, please.
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I believe the 20 percent mortality Alan is amongst those with underlying health conditions.
On the whole, we are talking about the elderly.
What fraction of these people have no underlying health condition?
If I had gone to a bingo hall a few years ago and asked the over-70's there "is any of you not taking pills for something or other?" what response do you think I would have got?
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an increase in bee stings and food allergies.
Citation, please.
I do not know how many more have passed away due to an increase in bee stings and food allergies.
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Some readers of this forum, might get this impression:
That certain regular posters on here are part of a conspiracy. Whose aim is to overthrow society, and bring about a revolution.
And in order to advance the revolution, they are deliberately exaggerating the dangers of Covid-19.
You've got to be kidding me...
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[ Invalid Attachment ] Effective measures to protect the vulnerable work. Herd immunity would be achieved a lot faster than the vaccine too.
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Duplicate deleted.
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Herd immunity occurs when about 80% of the remaining herd has been infected and survived. With a bit of encouragement, this could be achieved in about a year.
En route to this happy state you would have 2,250,000 excess deaths and 10,000,000 acute hospital cases, of whom 5,000,000 would be permanently disabled, in the UK alone.
Even the most evil and stupid politicians have abandoned it as a public health objective because it might just harm the economy.
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Herd immunity occurs when about 80% of the remaining herd has been infected and survived. With a bit of encouragement, this could be achieved in about a year.
En route to this happy state you would have 2,250,000 excess deaths and 10,000,000 acute hospital cases, of whom 5,000,000 would be permanently disabled, in the UK alone.
Not according to the graph above, Sweden is living quite happily and semi normally.
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The number of recorded COVID deaths in Sweden doubled in the last 3 months, suggesting that they were indeed approaching herd immunity until they began vaccinating, which will spoil the statistics. "Effective measures to protect the vulnerable" is the exact opposite of herd immunity, where you allow the most vulnerable to die and leave a resilient population.
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Hi,
I honestly don't think, that it's exactly the same as last year in spring. This time the numbers of infections are way higher than they have ever been. I'm not a big fan of the current situation either, but that's how it is. I am also convinced that it will get better over the time. The medical research is crazy fast. Usually it would take a decade to create and deploy a vaccine for such a strong virus.
A favorite sportsman of mine once said: If you can't change, you have to relax and stay calm. It is always hard to do the exact opposite of something to get to the solution. But all of us can at least give it a try...
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The number of recorded COVID deaths in Sweden doubled in the last 3 months, suggesting that they were indeed approaching herd immunity until they began vaccinating, which will spoil the statistics. "Effective measures to protect the vulnerable" is the exact opposite of herd immunity, where you allow the most vulnerable to die and leave a resilient population.
Remind me again Alan what did they double from, was it one to two? (this is in just chat so I can be fickle and irrepresentative and so can you! )
Herd immunity is achieved with something like the Oxford vaccine, around a 70 percent immunity, or the 70 percent of the population who where not at risk. Let's face it, if they had gone down the shielding for the vulnerable route, those who where shielding would have been able to see alot more of their grandchildren than they have done. Not even 1 year and 26 weeks in lockdown.
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Hi,
I honestly don't think, that it's exactly the same as last year in spring. This time the numbers of infections are way higher than they have ever been. I'm not a big fan of the current situation either, but that's how it is. I am also convinced that it will get better over the time. The medical research is crazy fast. Usually it would take a decade to create and deploy a vaccine for such a strong virus.
A favorite sportsman of mine once said: If you can't change, you have to relax and stay calm. It is always hard to do the exact opposite of something to get to the solution. But all of us can at least give it a try...
We have not any longterm studies into it, there is no way around that.
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Remind me again Alan what did they double from, was it one to two?
6000 to 12000. As anyone with a real interest in the subject can discover. But you have to be numerate to understand statistics.
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Remind me again Alan what did they double from, was it one to two?
6000 to 12000. As anyone with a real interest in the subject can discover. But you have to be numerate to understand statistics.
Do you have to be numerate to understand statistics? Surely not. Statistics can be made understandable by diagrams and pictures. At least, to a sufficient degree of accuracy.
Like in pie-charts. In these, statistical quantities are very clearly displayed without any numbers.
The numbers are replaced by different radial areas of colours, or shades, within the pie.
Don't these "pies" convey the essential statistical information at a glance.
Far more quickly, and efficiently, than the equivalent table of numbers would?
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Remind me again Alan what did they double from, was it one to two?
6000 to 12000. As anyone with a real interest in the subject can discover. But you have to be numerate to understand statistics.
76 percent of stastistics are made up on the spot Alan.
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And 100% of Swedish government statistics are published by the Swedish government. But they are really, really difficult to understand if you are determined not to.
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Don't these "pies" convey the essential statistical information at a glance.
Far more quickly, and efficiently, than the equivalent table of numbers would?
The Swedish COVID death toll doubled in the last 3 months. Looking at the figures we can identify the date at which actions were taken that resulted in this significant increase, and derive a statistic that allows meaningful comparison with another country.
Please demonstrate these three findings with a pie chart.
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Don't these "pies" convey the essential statistical information at a glance.
Far more quickly, and efficiently, than the equivalent table of numbers would?
The Swedish COVID death toll doubled in the last 3 months. Looking at the figures we can identify the date at which actions were taken that resulted in this significant increase, and derive a statistic that allows meaningful comparison with another country.
Yep from 6 to 12 thousand, it is better if we put a figure on it. Meanwhile the amount of people in tier 4 restrictions in the UK rose from 0 to 65million in the last 4 months. That is a rise of 0 percent. The mortality rate in th UK in June fell from previous years, corona saved an extra ~10~ percent of people.
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the amount of people in tier 4 restrictions in the UK rose from 0 to 65million in the last 4 months. That is a rise of 0 percent.
So (65 - 0) x 100 / 0 = 0 on your planet. Who said mathematics was universal?
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The mortality rate in th UK in June fell from previous years, corona saved an extra ~10~ percent of people.
" He that cuts off twenty years of life
Cuts off so many years of fearing death. "
Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act III, scene 1, line 101
There are lies, damned lies, presidential lies, and bad statistics.
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the amount of people in tier 4 restrictions in the UK rose from 0 to 65million in the last 4 months. That is a rise of 0 percent.
So (65 - 0) x 100 / 0 = 0 on your planet. Who said mathematics was universal?
Yes Alan, someone with mathematical skills shall be along to point it out.
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The mortality rate in th UK in June fell from previous years, corona saved an extra ~10~ percent of people.
" He that cuts off twenty years of life
Cuts off so many years of fearing death. "
Shakespeare, Julius Caesar, Act III, scene 1, line 101
There are lies, damned lies, presidential lies, and bad statistics.
In what context was the above verse situated, was it in noble sacrifice or conniving politics.
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Justifying murder.
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Justifying murder.
I have read it, the verse is soon after they do in Caesar, it relates to reputation, to end in the height of fame and not facing the age decline and unpopularity and supercedence I belive, not doing himself a favour. It is much in that respect like Jimi hendrix, Bob marley, John lennon, kurdt kobain etc.
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Once again, I can't go for an unnecessary drive in a car, can't play golf, can't go and see someone else in their garden, yet I can go indoors to a church, can send a child to nursery, and can order from the internet businesses with industrial sweatshops. It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona. It is a complete waste of my time, and is patently unfair. At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
I would like to refer to the aspect you mentioned about sending children to nurseries.
I come from Gemany, and nurserys were shut down due to high infection rates. Believe me, closing nurseries should be one of the last options. A lot of parents here in Germany are in a crisis, since a lot of them can`t go to work because they have to babysit their children. And a lot of people who would love to hire a nany can`t afford it. Not every company allows or is suitable for Home Office, which leads to a lot of adults being unable to work to sustain their families.
I am by no means trying to be insulting here, but it just lit a spark in my heart.
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Makes you wonder why they had children, if looking after them is so awful and they are such a financial burden.
Nurseries were shut down due to high infection rates.
The alternative being....more sick adults and children. Government is the business of doing the unpalatable to prevent the unacceptable.
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Once again, I can't go for an unnecessary drive in a car, can't play golf, can't go and see someone else in their garden, yet I can go indoors to a church, can send a child to nursery, and can order from the internet businesses with industrial sweatshops. It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona. It is a complete waste of my time, and is patently unfair. At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
I would like to refer to the aspect you mentioned about sending children to nurseries.
I come from Gemany, and nurserys were shut down due to high infection rates. Believe me, closing nurseries should be one of the last options. A lot of parents here in Germany are in a crisis, since a lot of them can`t go to work because they have to babysit their children. And a lot of people who would love to hire a nany can`t afford it. Not every company allows or is suitable for Home Office, which leads to a lot of adults being unable to work to sustain their families.
I am by no means trying to be insulting here, but it just lit a spark in my heart.
But the infection rates came down quite drastically compared to the UK did they not ?
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Once again, I can't go for an unnecessary drive in a car, can't play golf, can't go and see someone else in their garden, yet I can go indoors to a church, can send a child to nursery, and can order from the internet businesses with industrial sweatshops. It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona. It is a complete waste of my time, and is patently unfair. At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
I would like to refer to the aspect you mentioned about sending children to nurseries.
I come from Gemany, and nurserys were shut down due to high infection rates. Believe me, closing nurseries should be one of the last options. A lot of parents here in Germany are in a crisis, since a lot of them can`t go to work because they have to babysit their children. And a lot of people who would love to hire a nany can`t afford it. Not every company allows or is suitable for Home Office, which leads to a lot of adults being unable to work to sustain their families.
I am by no means trying to be insulting here, but it just lit a spark in my heart.
But the infection rates came down quite drastically compared to the UK did they not ?
Well I can agree, that the Numbers went down way quicker in comparison to UK.
But I wouldn`t necessarily explain it with the shutting down of nurserys. It is told, that the risks of infections in nurserys is way lower, than in other institutions (at least in Germany even from the national television). Of course, most deffinetly prevents some infections, that is without doubt. But the damage the families take is just too big. For parents AND the children.
The small ones are supposed to be socialising and learning from other people. They absorb so uch information this way. Especially in their life-phase where they develope so quickly.
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It is told, that the risks of infections in nurserys is way lower, than in other institutions
The risk of serious infection in nursery populations seems to be low because young kids seem not to develop severe symptoms (if any) but the virus is always happy to spread to asymptomatic carriers who then take it home to their families. The best carrier is the one who doesn't know he has the disease, and is hugged and kissed by lots of adults.
The small ones are supposed to be socialising and learning from other people. They absorb so much information this way. Especially in their life-phase where they develope so quickly.
And who better to learn from than their parents and elder siblings? What useful skills, behavior and language can a baby learn from another baby? Nurseries are dumping grounds for kids who get in the way of their parents earning money.
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It is told, that the risks of infections in nurserys is way lower, than in other institutions
The risk of serious infection in nursery populations seems to be low because young kids seem not to develop severe symptoms (if any) but the virus is always happy to spread to asymptomatic carriers who then take it home to their families. The best carrier is the one who doesn't know he has the disease, and is hugged and kissed by lots of adults.
The small ones are supposed to be socialising and learning from other people. They absorb so much information this way. Especially in their life-phase where they develope so quickly.
And who better to learn from than their parents and elder siblings? What useful skills, behavior and language can a baby learn from another baby? Nurseries are dumping grounds for kids who get in the way of their parents earning money.
I see the reasoning behind the first poin. And you might be right. But i can`t in any way agree on the second one...
Maybe that is the way you see it, but i think it is pretty obvious in these days, what happens to people when they aren`t in an environment where they are able to socialise. Maye you misunderstood me, because i didn`t try to imply, that children learn ONLY from nurserys. I do also think, that the main teachers in a Childs life are their parents. But the social life is a huge aspect aswell, and it is getting damaged big time.
Now i can`t give a certain solution to this problem. On the one hand, some instituions (like nurseries in this case) should be closed to minimize the infection rate. But on the other hand, it is a crucial part of discovering how life works, and getting to know, that there is more to it than just "mommy" "daddy" and maybe "nanny".
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And 100% of Swedish government statistics are published by the Swedish government. But they are really, really difficult to understand if you are determined not to.
On that point Alan sweden is averaging a 0.2 percent fatality rate compared to cases weeks prior, 3000 cases on average The cases have levelled to a sustained plateau but the fatality rate is on the floor. This is good efficient Scandinavian management, proving it can be done. If this had been implemented a year ago the herd immunity often wrongly attributed to Swedens policy would have come to fluition with less victims.
...... and before you claim lockdown would be better, consider the other health effects of quarantine as outlined prior.
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Screenshot_20210210_003425.jpg (134.81 kB . 1604x676 - viewed 236 times)
Effective measures to protect the vulnerable work. Herd immunity would be achieved a lot faster than the vaccine too.
That is an interesting graph - but it leaves out some vital information, like:
- What is the vertical axis? (Usually there is some scale, which is missing.)
- What is being measured? (Usually in the Title, which is missing)
- I can see the dates along the bottom (Good!)
- And I can see that the vertical scale is linear, not logarithmic (Important to know...)
But the general inference is interesting:
- In February/March 2020, when almost no precautions were initially taken, cases exploded (in country X=unknown)
- The rate of decline, from April to August, was very slow.
- When the second wave began, in November-December 2020, it grew much more slowly, perhaps because people were taking social distancing, masks and contact tracing more seriously?
- When the second wave declined, in January 2021, it fell very quickly.
In a thread which is talking about lockdowns, you would think that you could relate the date of lockdowns to their effects - but not knowing the country, that is just impossible.
- Leaving out this vital information is just poor statistics.
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Screenshot_20210210_003425.jpg (134.81 kB . 1604x676 - viewed 236 times)
Effective measures to protect the vulnerable work. Herd immunity would be achieved a lot faster than the vaccine too.
That is an interesting graph - but it leaves out some vital information, like:
- What is the vertical axis? (Usually there is some scale, which is missing.)
- What is being measured? (Usually in the Title, which is missing)
- I can see the dates along the bottom (Good!)
- And I can see that the vertical scale is linear, not logarithmic (Important to know...)
But the general inference is interesting:
- In February/March 2020, when almost no precautions were initially taken, cases exploded (in country X=unknown)
- The rate of decline, from April to August, was very slow.
- When the second wave began, in November-December 2020, it grew much more slowly, perhaps because people were taking social distancing, masks and contact tracing more seriously?
- When the second wave declined, in January 2021, it fell very quickly.
In a thread which is talking about lockdowns, you would think that you could relate the date of lockdowns to their effects - but not knowing the country, that is just impossible.
- Leaving out this vital information is just poor statistics.
As this is in just chat I did not do a revision even though I did not do a good job with the graph, the gist is the fall in mortality versus current cases.
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On that point Alan sweden is averaging a 0.2 percent fatality rate compared to cases
The numerate among us would have noticed that 12,649 divided by 631,166 is 2%, not 0.2%, but why let a mere factor of 10 spoil an argument?
Anyway, dividing deaths to date by infections to date doesn't give you the fatality rate when the number of infections is rising rapidly, as it has done for the last 3 months in Sweden, because it takes several weeks to die from COVID.
Those with an actual interest in the statistics of epidemics will have looked back at the "28 day" numbers for Sweden on 30 November. The reason is quite simple to understand if you have an IQ exceeding 50. Until the end of October, the number of confirmed cases was very stable at about 4000 per month, so the 30 November total reported deaths figure is pretty close to the true 28 day fatality rate for infections up to 31 October.
What alarmed the Swedish health ministry was the official (28 day) death rate over the year to that point was 5.3%. No surprise, really, because that has been the sort of number to expect in any advanced society with plenty of intensive care facilities.
The infection rate is determined by human stupidity only. The fatality rate is fixed by the virus itself, and is fairly independent of government action.
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the main teachers in a Childs life are their parents.
Not if the child spends most of its waking hours in a nursery. Dump the kid at 0830, pick up at 1700, sit in the car for 30 minutes, sit in front of the TV for 30 minutes while parents do stuff with food, 30 minutes having food wiped off face and hands, 15 minutes being licked by dog while parents clean up, 30 minutes quality time while parents check emails, bath and bed while parent reads some crap about fairies. If you are really lucky you might spend an hour screaming in a supermarket once a week. It's only the dog that really has time to show affection, and knows how.
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3000 cases on average The cases have levelled to a sustained plateau
....er....16,000 in the last week. But why bother with the truth, eh?
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On that point Alan sweden is averaging a 0.2 percent fatality rate compared to cases
The numerate among us would have noticed that 12,649 divided by 631,166 is 2%, not 0.2%, but why let a mere factor of 10 spoil an argument?
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Again Alan another misquote misrepresentation out of context denying the content of the sentence posted
,, and there was no punctuation in the above sentence either just like the quote. One can only assume you feel you are wrong.
Anyway, moving off from the point, anyway, my stick I wish to brandish is, I like coffee I like tea, I love the java jive and it loves me.
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The context is clear from anyone who cares to refer to it. So is the difference between 0.2 and 2. And anyone who knows anything about COVID (i.e. anyone vaguely literate who has been alive during the last 12 months) knows that, unlike being hit by a bus, there is a significant delay between cause and death, so comparing yesterday's new infections with today's reported deaths, even if you get the arithmetic right, is meaningless.
Anyway I'm sure the world of politics has a use for someone with an idiosyncratic approach to statistics. Just not in an important area like science of public health. Maybe the next Republican administration.
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The context is clear from anyone who cares to refer to it. So is the difference between 0.2 and 2. And anyone who knows anything about COVID (i.e. anyone vaguely literate who has been alive during the last 12 months) knows that, unlike being hit by a bus, there is a significant delay between cause and death, so comparing yesterday's new infections with today's reported deaths, even if you get the arithmetic right, is meaningless.
Anyway I'm sure the world of politics has a use for someone with an idiosyncratic approach to statistics. Just not in an important area like science of public health. Maybe the next Republican administration.
3 weeks is the norm Alan for mortality following the cases.
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Another word from the world of statistics. Do you know what it means? Or why it is irrelevant?
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Another word from the world of statistics. Do you know what it means? Or why it is irrelevant?
I used to work in a Statistical Department. We made most of our figures up. To meet what the Head of the Department wanted.to see.
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Another word from the world of statistics. Do you know what it means? Or why it is irrelevant?
Anyway Alan, how about my interests!
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I used to work in a Statistical Department. We made most of our figures up. To meet what the Head of the Department wanted.to see.
Sounds like the civil service I knew and loved. We called it "policy-based evidence-making".
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Another word from the world of statistics. Do you know what it means? Or why it is irrelevant?
I used to work in a Statistical Department. We made most of our figures up. To meet what the Head of the Department wanted.to see.
Nice punctuation. Do you mean that statistics and wording can largely be used to support any point. Such as cororona kills/saves thousands if you base it of any particular monthly mortality rate. You could use the corona statistics to illustrate that the flu vaccine has extended the lives of millions of people( again don't throw my parents under the bus).
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"Why should I be bothered with lockdown?"
Well, you should be bothered with it to protect other humans from unnecessary harm.
But somehow, you don't see that.
You will be telling us next that you vote Tory.
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Once again, I can't go for an unnecessary drive in a car, can't play golf, can't go and see someone else in their garden, yet I can go indoors to a church, can send a child to nursery, and can order from the internet businesses with industrial sweatshops. It was the same a month ago, during the last lockdown, which strangely enough failed to dent the spread of corona. It is a complete waste of my time, and is patently unfair. At least this time they have bothered to shut the schools.
I would like to refer to the aspect you mentioned about sending children to nurseries.
I come from Gemany, and nurserys were shut down due to high infection rates. Believe me, closing nurseries should be one of the last options. A lot of parents here in Germany are in a crisis, since a lot of them can`t go to work because they have to babysit their children. And a lot of people who would love to hire a nany can`t afford it. Not every company allows or is suitable for Home Office, which leads to a lot of adults being unable to work to sustain their families.
I am by no means trying to be insulting here, but it just lit a spark in my heart.
But the infection rates came down quite drastically compared to the UK did they not ?
Well I can agree, that the Numbers went down way quicker in comparison to UK.
But I wouldn`t necessarily explain it with the shutting down of nurserys. It is told, that the risks of infections in nurserys is way lower, than in other institutions (at least in Germany even from the national television). Of course, most deffinetly prevents some infections, that is without doubt. But the damage the families take is just too big. For parents AND the children.
The small ones are supposed to be socialising and learning from other people. They absorb so uch information this way. Especially in their life-phase where they develope so quickly.
This is sort of the point I am making in this thread. If they wanted to lower infections and lower hospital admissions they could shut schools and nurseries., if key workers need a helper the government currently employs many child safety registered people in the form of furlough and teaching staff. This would do what the government wishes fast and effectively and schools and nurseries could fully reopen far sooner(Statistically the end of January at the very Latest) instead they are jeopardising the well being of millions of people with a protracted waste of time.
Also they where given the opportunity to manage this problem of over flowing hospitals 8 months ago, yet they wasted the chance and buggered everything up once more.
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I think that we shouldn't have done any "lockdowns". We should've just let the virus run its course.
We'll have to do that in the end. All this flim-flammery of lockdowns is just a futile attempt to stave off the inevitable.
We can't beat the virus. It's too microscopic Face-masks won't block it.. It will get everywhere. And infect everyone.
It's just Nature's way.
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I think that we shouldn't have done any "lockdowns". We should've just let the virus run its course.
We'll have to do that in the end. All this flim-flammery of lockdowns is just a futile attempt to stave off the inevitable.
We can't beat the virus. It's too microscopic Face-masks won't block it.. It will get everywhere. And infect everyone.
It's just Nature's way.
Are you too dim to realise that we now have a vaccine.
It isn't perfect, but it doesn't need to be.
If it can slow the virus down then that's enough to help a lot.
Do you remember the talk early in the pandemic of flattening the curve?
That's still what we are doing.We can't beat the virus. It's too microscopic
Bollocks.
It's about the same size as smallpox and polio.
It's all very well for you to be a doom merchant; but the rest of us would rather not sacrifice millions just because you don't understand how we can save them.
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I think that we shouldn't have done any "lockdowns". We should've just let the virus run its course.
We'll have to do that in the end. All this flim-flammery of lockdowns is just a futile attempt to stave off the inevitable.
We can't beat the virus. It's too microscopic Face-masks won't block it.. It will get everywhere. And infect everyone.
It's just Nature's way.
The vulnerable could have shielded without the general population, their experience would have at worst been exactly the same, but probably lots better than the one that they and everyone else have experienced. Anybody anybody over 55 or who needed to protect themselves could have been put on a pension.
Face masks clearly do not work.
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=80639.0
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The vulnerable could have shielded without the general population,
A fine idea with one slight flaw.
We can not identify the vulnerable.
It could be you.
Face masks clearly do not work.
https://www.hse.gov.uk/research/rrpdf/rr619.pdf
The research says that face masks work against viral infection
You say they don't.
I'm going to go with the evidence- and remind you that this is a science site.
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We should've just let the virus run its course.
Please name the 20% of your friends and family you would like to see seriously ill, the 10% you want to see permanently disabled, and the 5% you want to see dead. And not just those present, but for all succeeding generations.
While you are about it, why not add a dash of ebola? Poliomyelitis for the kids, perhaps? Too bad there's no smallpox left. Bloody quarantine, took all the fun out of transmissible disease.
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Seriously, this government using the words save lives,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56200739
in the face of nurseries schools and workplaces remaining open, whilst saying I will kill if I play golf is a paradox
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Your playing golf will not allow the electorate to go back to work and boost the shareholdings of Tory MPs. Your not playing golf will convince the electorate that "we are all in this together", blood sweat and tears, etc. Plus the only results of people playing golf are chronic back pain (more cost to the NHS) and the occasional death by lightning strike. Why ruin a good walk?
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Ask Nigel Farage this question.
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Seriously, this government using the words save lives,
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56200739
in the face of nurseries schools and workplaces remaining open, whilst saying I will kill if I play golf is a paradox
There are two issues there.
I think most people agree that we should take action to reduce the spread of the virus and thereby reduce the death toll.
But exactly what the transmission path is meant to be for one guy standing in a field hitting a ball with a stick has yet to be explained.
At the outset of the pandemic the (very very limited) evidence suggested that transmission by objects and surfaces was a major factor and that inhalation of fine aerosols was less so.
That turns out to be the wrong way round, but the government is terrified of changing its advice.
So they are still restricting outdoor low population density events but allowing people into work as long as they stay 2 metres apart.
My feeling is that we accept that some measures should be put in place to reduce transmission; but the measures currently in place don't seem targeted at doing that.
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Private flying for pleasure is banned. As far as separation from others is concerned, it beats even cricket: the radar umpires keep the participants at least 500 feet apart, and 5 miles from the paying public! But it's expensive and therefore seen as permitting the privileged few to have fun while the hoi polloi suffer.
And cricket itself is subject to an odd prejudice. My schoolteacher son was allowed to coach tennis but not cricket last summer. Why?
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And cricket itself is subject to an odd prejudice. My schoolteacher son was allowed to coach tennis but not cricket last summer. Why?
Is it because cricket requires the wicket-keeper to crouch close behind the batsman. In flagrant violation of the 2-metre social-distancing rule?
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Not if he values his teeth.