Africa is sometimes lifted forward as some future 'young' base for this 'import' our game will crave. But it lacks in several respects. Education, infra structures, corruptions, starvation's, and the list goes on. It's a failing market, getting worse by the day for creating those people our industrialized countries firstly will want to 'import'. And the way we exploit it, and them, as with the lack of vaccines, mining, etc doesn't make it, or us, any more trustworthy, does it?
This depends on how you look at the world. Sweden used to offer a free education for everyone, not only Swedes. A lot of Chinese and other people coming here to study. We have stopped and adapted to the rest of the world. And with all right, the rest of the world not sophisticated enough to see any advantages in such a attitude to life. So we're stuck with a view in where you, with your education, becomes one of the most valuable 'products' created by your country. A future 'investment' that your hierarchies do want to keep.
And China doesn't really have more of a problem than any industrialized country when it comes to aging populations. It comes down to a choice, share and wait it out, or 'import' young people to axle the economic pressure this will create short time. If you're industrialized you will also want a skilled work force, preferably payed for already by the country you import from.
The “dual circulation” program seems fairly simple to me. It seems to be about disconnecting citizens basic needs from external sources, as much as possible. You could see it as a preparation for what is to come, and what we will see more countries adapt to as international trade breaks down, especially those without a agricultural basis. At the same time as China wants to accumulate profits and geopolitical power externally.
There is one enormous fault with this sort of analysis. Or four faults that I see, if you want me to be explicit.
Water, Groundwater, Topsoil, Global warming. It has subcategories as landslides, wild fires, species extinctions, starvation, civil unrest, coups and civil wars. Your old hierarchal, patriarchal structures increasingly challenged by them. And the recipe there is blame games.
It won't be 'business as usual' as my first assumption assumed, as well as yours.
I do not expect China to take Taiwan by military force. I'm pretty sure on that one, for the moment that is. They don't need to, they will just keep wearing them down until they reach a for them favorable consensus.
" Ever since May, when President Xi Jinping first introduced the concept of a “dual circulation” economic model, analysts who follow the Chinese economy have been struggling to understand exactly what the Chinese leadership has committed to. From the many subsequent formal references that have followed, it seems that Beijing’s new economic strategy calls for the country to continue to expand domestic production for exports (“international circulation”) while shifting the economy towards a greater relative emphasis on production for domestic consumption (“internal circulation”). "
" Household spending accounts for just 38% of the Chinese economy, which is one of the lowest shares in the world. Other countries with similarly low shares are Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Ireland and Luxembourg, but they each have tiny populations relative to their business sectors. In other large emerging countries like India, Brazil and South Africa, the consumer share is 55% to 60%, as is also the case in most advanced nations.
Since Wen’s speech, the consumer share of GDP has risen by only 2 percentage points, and that gain will be lost entirely this year, because households have responded to the surge of unemployment following the coronavirus outbreak by slashing consumption and redoubling their savings. "