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General Discussion & Feedback => Just Chat! => Topic started by: RD on 08/06/2020 21:10:31

Title: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: RD on 08/06/2020 21:10:31
... could reveal true beginning of COVID-19 ...


* diarrhea.jpg (154.38 kB . 960x600 - viewed 3310 times)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/08/satellite-images-packed-wuhan-hospitals-suggest-coronavirus/

Baidu is a Chinese internet search-engine, (like Google).
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: alancalverd on 08/06/2020 23:06:30
Seems a weak conclusion as diarrhoea isn't a very common or florid symptom of COVID - unlike norovirus where is it spectacular and often has a winter onset. And this is presumably "all China", not just Wuhan. And whatever it was, the "cough" search peak seems to be in February each year. If the peaks are anything to do with COVID you would expect them to increase at least until February 2020, but it was apparently all over by March 2019. Looks like a Chinese New Year phenomenon, with a seriously bad year for seafood.

The unusual feature of the hospital car park images is that it was ever less than full during "office" hours. But on closer inspection you can see that they were taken at different times of day and, more importantly, in 2018 the top quadrant of the car park was rough ground and one of the entrance awnings was not complete, suggesting a rather new hospital or one that has undergone significant change in a year. The parking density in the other sectors is pretty much the same. 
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: Petrochemicals on 09/06/2020 00:44:02
Diarrhoea is still increacing now though ?
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: RD on 09/06/2020 11:07:14
... And this is presumably "all China", not just Wuhan.

"... search engine data in Wuhan China ..."
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_preprint.pdf (https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_preprint.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

 ["dash.harvard.edu" pages are slow to load].
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: alancalverd on 09/06/2020 19:06:45
Fair enough, so it's Wuhan only, but

1. The paper talks about "Fall 2019" whereas the graph only runs to June 2019, so does not support the hypothesis (Wuhan is in the northern hemisphere, and shows a peak in February 2019). If they meant "Spring 2020", they have been very clever in predicting traffic for the end of June 2020 in a paper submitted yesterday (8 June 2020). 

2. The February "cough peak" is repeated each year and seems to coincide with the annual New Year mass migration by public transport

3. Diarrhoea is not a significant or definitive symptom of COVID - Feb 2019 peak more likely due to norovirus, particularly if it is confined to one city.

4. A well planned hospital runs at about 85% of  nominal capacity to allow for maintenance and cleaning. The (undated) car park images show in the earlier image that about 25% of the car park was unfinished, as was part of the front building. This suggests that the hospital fitout was probably incomplete in the earlier picture but the institution was running at normal loading of its actual capacity in both.

5. The photographs were taken at widely different times or seasons (look at the shadows) and are therefore not usefully comparable. The "10 o'clock rush", where outpatients and electives start arriving just as relatives turn up to collect discharges, is a well-established phenomenon in the UK. It's possible that it occurs later in the day in China - maybe 6pm? - but AFAIK no hospital car park is ever big enough to cope with daily peak demand.

6. COVID inpatients will not have driven themselves to a hospital. Only Superman Dominic Cummings is capable of driving when he needs acute hospital treatment.

7. The implication of the sharp peak is of a rapidly spreading but quite limited infection. Either the Wuhan authorities were very quick to pounce on COVID (which we know they weren't - they tried to hush it up for weeks) or the graph reflects some much more short-lived infection with much lower interpersonal infectivity (norovirus is pretty disabling in the infective stage, unlike COVID).

A bunch of drivel, I'm afraid, but I'm sure Mr Trump likes it. Never let the facts get in the way of  propaganda.
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: Petrochemicals on 09/06/2020 21:26:20
... And this is presumably "all China", not just Wuhan.

"... search engine data in Wuhan China ..."
https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_preprint.pdf (https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42669767/Satellite_Images_Baidu_COVID19_manuscript_preprint.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

 ["dash.harvard.edu" pages are slow to load].

Medication, disinfectant, ppe reactions to vinal and masks etc, lack of exersice and overeating due to boredom, fear (why all the panic buying of toilet roll? Because if one person coughs another 100 _ _ _ _ themselves) , annual virus strains, bacteria build up in houses, alcoholism, new year virus, government mind control drugs for obedience, lack of fresh food, gluten intolerance uncle tom cobly and the kitchen sink.
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/06/2020 22:26:44
Medication, disinfectant, ppe reactions to vinal and masks etc, lack of exersice and overeating due to boredom, fear (why all the panic buying of toilet roll? Because if one person coughs another 100 _ _ _ _ themselves) , annual virus strains, bacteria build up in houses, alcoholism, new year virus, government mind control drugs for obedience, lack of fresh food, gluten intolerance uncle tom cobly and the kitchen sink.
Are those the answers to this week's Sunday Times crossword?
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: alancalverd on 10/06/2020 11:55:06
Or maybe the questions for the cryptic version.
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: Petrochemicals on 10/06/2020 23:42:35
Or maybe the questions for the cryptic version.
Possibly in your case, but then again the ball of fire in the sky has dissapeared into the ocean and it may not rise out of the sea tomorrow.
Title: Re: Chinese search for diarrhea on t'internet ...
Post by: alancalverd on 11/06/2020 17:25:31
Fear not, my friend. We fixed that many years ago by sacrificing virgins and dancing around the maypole. Nowadays the gods are propitiated by the occasional Morris dance.

If you don't believe me, ask Dominic Cummings, the scientific genius in charge of the UK's brilliant, rational response to COVID. Open the schools, teach religion (the only mandatory subject in the 1945 Education Act), and get the peasants back to work. Except in Scotland and Wales, where they don't do Morris, and Northern Ireland where the inter-christian death rates have been disappointingly low during lockdown.