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Yes Colin exactly , so what is the P of an event from the Y axis Colin?
I repeat my questions of reply #37. Please define your terms and symbols.
Quote from: alancalverd on 27/08/2015 01:19:29I repeat my questions of reply #37. Please define your terms and symbols.I'm telling you folks. He's just never going to get it.
Quote from: Thebox on 26/08/2015 19:01:28Yes Colin exactly , so what is the P of an event from the Y axis Colin?I don't intend to repeat answers that we have already given that you choose not to readhttp://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=57749.0
Your underlying misconception is the idea that multiplying one random number (say the position of AS in a shuffle) by another (which shuffle to pick) results in a nonrandom,or at least more predictable, number.
if you recorded the results of the coin toss and kept the results hidden, then asked someone to pick a result, the chance is not 1/2 any more. the chance is ? out of ?oooooooHow many heads or tails are in the above number of throws? You cant answer it can you?
You are beginning to see the light. Please keep your eyes open. Nobody will accept a bet after the race is over. But I can tell you that if the coin is fair and you made a very large number of throws, about half of them would be heads, and the more throws you made, the closer you would get to 0.5. So my best guess at the number of heads in a finite number n throws would be n/2, and the probability of guessing the next throw would be 0.5 too, because the trials are fair and independent. The essence of Bayesian statistics is that if all trials are independent, the particular trial you are considering is not special. It actually goes further than that:You have captured one of the enemy's guns. It bears the serial number 1846. How many of these guns does the enemy have?
... what is the world trying to cover up?...........why is everyone lying to me?
You are not considering before and after and recorded results, before a coin toss the result is 1/2 , if you recorded the results of the coin toss and kept the results hidden, then asked someone to pick a result, the chance is not 1/2 any more. the chance is ? out of ?oooooooHow many heads or tails are in the above number of throws? You cant answer it can you?
What probability tells you is the likelyhood that when shuffled the first card might be ace of clubs
In a normal distribution we would receive 12121121121, in a random leap distribution we could receive 1111111111.
If the trials are independent, the odds do not change, by definition. QuoteIn a normal distribution we would receive 12121121121, in a random leap distribution we could receive 1111111111.There being 11 members in the first sequence, the probability of generating it is 1 in 2^11. The second sequence contains 10 members so the probability is 1 in 2^10, so you are twice as likely to receive the second sequence as the first.