Post by: Petrochemicals on 27/09/2023 07:36:35
What other effects has the grand experiment had?
Post by: alancalverd on 27/09/2023 07:56:51
Post by: Bored chemist on 27/09/2023 17:27:14
What other effects has the grand experiment had?What experiment?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 27/09/2023 17:59:23
Fewer deaths than predicted without lockdown.Fewer deaths than predicted that are directly attributed to corona are claimed to be because of social measures before a vaccine that provided some level of immune protection in those that where vunerable.
Did deaths from other causes increace?
Increaced deaths predicted caused by a lockdown.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/03/minister-covid-suicide-children-school-shutdowns-report/
Post by: alancalverd on 27/09/2023 19:33:39
"Ministers were warned that....." is not evidence of anything that actually happened, whereas excess death statistics are immutable, strongly correlated with the incidence of COVID in the population as a whole, and consistent with the simplest explanation and experience in other countries.
The big mistake (apart from Our Glorious Health Secretary deliberately infecting the vulnerable) was calling it "lockdown" rather than quarantine, pretending that Very Important People (like the scum in Downing Street and several thousand "essential match officials" at a football match) could not be vectors for such a working-class disease, and stating that the sanctity of the Commercial Birthday of Jesus was more important than the health of the proletariat.
Still, several Tory donors made a lot of money and got honors and peerages, so it worked out OK in the end.
Post by: Kryptid on 27/09/2023 21:39:45
Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs
What evidence was provided that such was the cause?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 28/09/2023 07:47:06
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, especially in the hands of a journalist and the absence of evidence.Here is post event evidence, I do not believe you could have pre event evidence?
https://www.cypnow.co.uk/news/article/campaigners-warn-of-alarming-rise-in-teenage-suicides
Post by: Petrochemicals on 28/09/2023 07:53:12
Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs
What evidence was provided that such was the cause?
Quote from: https://www.youngminds.org.uk/about-us/reports-and-impact/coronavirus-impact-on-young-people-with-mental-health-needs/
The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people
Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.
https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people
Post by: alancalverd on 28/09/2023 10:26:42
The "alarming" numbers:
Quote
with 147 young people aged 15 to 19 taking their own lives in 2020, rising to 198 in 2021Normalised (there are about 4,000,000 people in the cohort), the number has risen from 0.0037% to 0.005%. The first question is whether either figure is significant? Next, what is the historic inter-year variance? Then what are all the possible causes? "Social" media? Unemployment? New street drugs? New prescription drugs? Public hysteria? Poverty? Fear of a future dominated by a virus or a corrupt government of liars*?
One common causative factor is schoolyard bullying. Intuitively, loneliness is the diametric opposite. If the statistics are significant, they deserve more detailed analysis.
*According to the Office of National Statistics, the annual percentage has risen steadily since 2012 and the 2020-2021 rise is consistent with that trend.
Post by: Kryptid on 28/09/2023 21:18:34
Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs
What evidence was provided that such was the cause?Quote from: https://www.youngminds.org.uk/about-us/reports-and-impact/coronavirus-impact-on-young-people-with-mental-health-needs/The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people
Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.
https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people
Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 01:32:54
You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs
What evidence was provided that such was the cause?Quote from: https://www.youngminds.org.uk/about-us/reports-and-impact/coronavirus-impact-on-young-people-with-mental-health-needs/The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people
Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.
https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people
Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 01:58:39
The "alarming" numbers:Well the same could be said of children dying from the jabs, not many healthy children died by the percentage, but the corona problem was not theirs really, yet it has been imposed on them and has therefore more deeply impacted them than it would have a la nature. As I said, it's a signifier of the general sociological impact.Quotewith 147 young people aged 15 to 19 taking their own lives in 2020, rising to 198 in 2021Normalised (there are about 4,000,000 people in the cohort), the number has risen from 0.0037% to 0.005%.
Where is your cut off point for deaths going from fine to not?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 02:01:19
Post by: Kryptid on 29/09/2023 05:00:55
You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.
Yes, I did ask for sources. Then I asked this:
Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 07:32:38
Sorry kryptit, there's no way out of it, they are the sources.You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.
Yes, I did ask for sources. Then I asked this:Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/09/2023 10:03:32
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 10:37:57
The only consistent factor in the continually increasing rate of teenage suicide in the UK since 2012 has been a Tory government. So it is no surprise that a Tory newsrag (the Telegraph) attempted to keep the ship of fools afloat by chucking one minister over the side. As he was personally responsible for least 60,000 excess deaths in a very short period, and is generally despised by the electorate, it seems like a rational sacrifice.I see your 60,000 and raise you,
https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2023/june/100000-excess-deaths-cardiovascular-disease
And that's just the tickers. Don't forget the extra 33 percent suicides in children, I know ithey are only small, but they had a long time to live, plus don't forget the other children who will have severley damaged quality of life. That extra 50 people could increace to thousand of destroyed young lives Alan.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/09/2023 11:18:59
A couple of years ago, the annual death rate for cats run over outside my house increased by more than 1,000,000%. Shock! Horror! Clearly correlated with a partial solar eclipse just a month earlier. Time to ban the moon? Well, we had a full moon last night and now there's a dead deer on the road, so Something Must Be Done Before It's Too Late To Save Wildlife.
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/09/2023 11:50:21
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/suicidesintheunitedkingdomreferencetables
And drew the graph of total suicide deaths aged 10 to 19 vs year. (That's absolute- not deaths per million or whatever)
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Post by: Bored chemist on 29/09/2023 11:56:41
child suicide vs year politic.png (7.27 kB . 480x288 - viewed 232 times)I'm always happy to point out when Alan gets stuff wrong, but in this case, I think he's more right than he realised.
Peaks in child suicide happened under Tories, troughs under Labour.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/09/2023 14:09:17
A couple of years ago, the annual death rate for cats run over outside my house increased by more than 1,000,000%. Shock! Horror! Clearly correlated with a partial solar eclipse just a month earlier. Time to ban the moon? Well, we had a full moon last night and now there's a dead deer on the road, so Something Must Be Done Before It's Too Late To Save Wildlife.The steam roller paid off in the end I see Alan.
But joking aside, it isn't just a case of assuming one event casuses another, mental health problems do lead to suicide. I know there are people who see one event and assume it means that something also present is obviously responsible, it's how we got religion after all, the sacrifices please the sun after all. As for the dodgy tickers, this could be a long covid of course.
And for the deer, they need culling, we have a valuable untapped food resource that does nothing but transmit TB to cattle and destroy plants and feed a plague of foxes when they get hit by cars.
Post by: paul cotter on 29/09/2023 18:11:28
Post by: alancalverd on 29/09/2023 21:06:30
I know there are people who see one event and assume it means that something also present is obviously responsibleBut you can't ignore a consistent bidirectional correlation between teenage suicide and Tory government, going back over 40 years and four changes of governing party, and not synchronised with COVID or any other single cause I can think of.
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/09/2023 23:59:53
But you can't ignore a consistent bidirectional correlation between teenage suicide and Tory government,I'm willing to bet that he can.
It's irrational, but that won't stop him.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/09/2023 05:53:43
lf there were no lockdowns there would have been mayhem with the hospitals overloaded and a potential complete breakdown of health care:It didnt in Sweden.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/09/2023 06:14:59
Mmm, you can't ignore the correlation between the tory government and a bad economy, Thatcher was a resounding failure socially, economically and in development terms. She did win the Falkland war however, singlehandedly freeing the islands herself, (or is that just another Misconception). Perhaps that is linked, the Conservative philosophy of every individual for themselves is somehow having an effect on both?I know there are people who see one event and assume it means that something also present is obviously responsibleBut you can't ignore a consistent bidirectional correlation between teenage suicide and Tory government, going back over 40 years and four changes of governing party, and not synchronised with COVID or any other single cause I can think of.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/09/2023 08:58:47
It didnt in Sweden.Sweden has less than a tenth of the UK population density and a functioning public health service run by professionals.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/09/2023 09:04:54
She did win the Falkland war however, singlehandedly freeing the islands herself, (or is that just another Misconception).She deliberately encouraged the Argentinian invasion by depleting the garrison and withdrawing the spy ship, despite clear intelligence warnings. Machiavelli recommended the tactic for any incompetent and unpopular leader, and since both Thatcher and Galtierei met those criteria, they did it. Fortunately the outcome was less of a disaster for the residents than Bush's invasion of Iraq, though Bush's Secretary of State made a lot of money from the latter so it achieved the primary objective.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/09/2023 11:10:18
It didnt in Sweden.Sweden has less than a tenth of the UK population density and a functioning public health service run by professionals.
Point stands.It didnt in Sweden.Sweden has less than a tenth of the UK population density and a functioning public health service run by professionals.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/09/2023 11:19:09
Yes it's all politics, thatcher had a fast and rapid pain free appearance to her tenure, it seems better than a slower propper functional investment of effort in the country, I suppose given Thatchers standing even today it must be what sells, as seen in HRH Blair. The lie sells and gets you the keys to number ten, it makes China seem quite rational.She did win the Falkland war however, singlehandedly freeing the islands herself, (or is that just another Misconception).She deliberately encouraged the Argentinian invasion by depleting the garrison and withdrawing the spy ship, despite clear intelligence warnings. Machiavelli recommended the tactic for any incompetent and unpopular leader, and since both Thatcher and Galtierei met those criteria, they did it. Fortunately the outcome was less of a disaster for the residents than Bush's invasion of Iraq, though Bush's Secretary of State made a lot of money from the latter so it achieved the primary objective.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/09/2023 12:14:51
Point stands.The point being that airborne infections spread most rapidly when people crowd together. Even the UK government realised this, until it was pointed out that (a) it isn't true in Downing Street and (b) it would Spoil the Profits of Christmas if everyone knew the truth.
My thoughts on the impact of amateurism in public services are unprintable in a family-friendly forum.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/09/2023 15:59:32
Nope, point being that the collapse of society did not occur in Sweden.Point stands.The point being that airborne infections spread most rapidly when people crowd together. Even the UK government realised this, until it was pointed out that (a) it isn't true in Downing Street and (b) it would Spoil the Profits of Christmas if everyone knew the truth.
My thoughts on the impact of amateurism in public services are unprintable in a family-friendly forum.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/09/2023 23:42:48
Post by: Petrochemicals on 01/10/2023 11:26:58
Nor anywhere else.Proves the pint then, lockdowns did not stop societal collapse.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/10/2023 11:57:08
What prevented societal collapse and total anarchy in Britain in the last 5 years was my changing from briefs to boxer shorts. I defy you to prove otherwise.
Post by: Bored chemist on 01/10/2023 12:54:39
lockdowns did not stop societal collapse.They didn't start it either.
So what?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 01/10/2023 15:33:45
lf there were no lockdowns there would have been mayhem with the hospitals overloaded and a potential complete breakdown of health care:It didnt in Sweden.
What societal collapse? The fall of the Roman empire? French Revolution? American Civil War? Berlin Wall?I fear you are being coy Alan, the point that you replied to first of all,(and for some reason have forgotten) was the one above, which if you read the reply I made to Paul cotter has to be taken in context of Paul's reply, unless it is standard practice to say a country and a non descript phrase? Maybe corona had the effect of memory loss?
What prevented societal collapse and total anarchy in Britain in the last 5 years was my changing from briefs to boxer shorts. I defy you to prove otherwise.
It goes in Holland.
They are in Burkina Faso
Post by: paul cotter on 01/10/2023 16:08:53
Post by: Petrochemicals on 01/10/2023 16:18:52
Petro, this is all hindsight. When a novel virus appears it is far better to be cautious rather than careless. No one knew how bad it could get. The young doctor in china who broke the story and was initially sanctioned for doing so died from it. Given the death rate with sars we had to err on the side of caution and when the death rate rose again. 100years ago we had a much more serious problem with the Spanish flu and it could have been as bad or worse with covid-we just did not know.We did know the mortality rate by the time lockdown ensued, there was talk at the time of a Sweden style lockdown, there was also clear knowledge of the damage that it would inflict on the youth but erred on the side of sod them. In China Winnie the poo is illegal.
Post by: Bored chemist on 01/10/2023 17:36:41
We did know the mortality rate by the time lockdown ensuedOnly if we had trustworthy data from China.
In China Winnie the poo is illegal.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/10/2023 19:31:11
Sir Patrick Vallance said at the beginning of the pandemic "If in the end we ask "what was all the fuss about" we will have got it right." They didn't, but the church clock stood at ten to three and there was honey still for tea this afternoon.