Naked Science Forum

On the Lighter Side => That CAN'T be true! => Topic started by: thedoc on 11/08/2016 22:23:01

Title: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: thedoc on 11/08/2016 22:23:01

martyn willis asked the Naked Scientists:
   Is there a law of improbability and if so what is it?
What do you think?

Title: Re: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: Fruityloop on 13/08/2016 05:17:26

I think there may be, such as: If the probability of an event occurring is sufficiently small, the probability is equal to zero.  If the probability is less than 10^-50, one could make a valid argument that it will never occur.  Although the cutoff point is obviously subject to dispute.

Title: Re: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: Colin2B on 13/08/2016 11:38:52

If the probability of an event is p, then you could say that it's improbability is 1-p.
In that case the law of improbability is implicit in the law of probability.

Title: Re: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: jeffreyH on 13/08/2016 18:15:40

Say there is a 3 in 4 chance of an event occurring. Then p = 3/4. So that 1 - p is 1/4. That seems to be a reasonable definition of improbability.

Title: Re: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: jeffreyH on 13/08/2016 18:17:38

If we can compute an improbability density and combine it with infinite Feynman diagrams we may yet be able to build the infinite improbability drive.

Title: Re: Is there a law of improbability
Post by: Colin2B on 13/08/2016 22:10:36

Quote from: jeffreyH on 13/08/2016 18:17:38

If we can compute an improbability density and combine it with infinite Feynman diagrams we may yet be able to build the infinite improbability drive.

You will then have a heart of gold Mr Jeffrey...... and probably a brain the size of a planet.
But don't let that depress you [;)]