[DonInWales (OP)]

I am fully aware of many consipiracy theories surrounding the Covid19 Pandemic.  And I treat each accordingly - chastising any friends/colleagues that forward such messages (usually without thought) espousing any of them.

However, I have one friend who continues to push his claim that the Flu vaccine raises the risk of COVID death.  He thinks he is a proper statistician and claims superiority amongst friends when it comes to scientific arguments.
He often sends us links of websites etc tyring to support his claim - though without studying too hard I suspect it is mainly a case of just finding 'any' results that fit in with his theory, and it therefore being coincidence rather than cause and effect.

However....I don't think I have come across any serious evidence that disproves his theory.  Does any such evidence exist?  I'd like to be able to point him to some well-known science authority that can explain why his theory is debunked.

This article mentions several 'scientists', publications and study data although I don't readily recognise any of them.  Indeed, the last paragraph questions itself whether the data just shows some 'correlation' rather any 'causative' effect between the FLU jab and COVID deaths.

But.......this friend will not accept me/anyone just saying that there is no proof etc...  I would like to be able to show him some 'proper' scientific evidence (if there is any) that negates his theory........

Would appreciate some help......

[alancalverd]

Flu vaccine uptake is most popular among the elderly.

COVID death is more likely among the elderly.

So you would expect a fairly strong correlation.

Flu vaccine is most commonly dispensed in the late summer and autumn. The majority of COVID deaths occurred in the UK in spring and early summer. So the correlation does not appear to be causative.

 

[DonInWales (OP)]

I certainly agree with your correlation between Flu Jab uptake and Covid deaths in the elderly. And I often state that.

But not sure about your second point. 
Whilst Flu Jabs 'are' typically taken between late Summer and early winter, we are clearly seeing that the majority of Covid deaths are taking place 'now' - in early Winter (and likely to get worse through the winter) - due, presumably, to a whole host of factors - people mixing indoors etc. etc...

So for now, it is just my argument against his argument, based mainly on assumptions and logical points rather than scientific evidence :-(

[alancalverd]

The lethality of COVID has remained pretty static at around 4% of infections. What has happened is that the infection rate has increased thanks to schools reopening, Boris Saving Christmas, and the resulting evolution of a more infective variant. 

[Colin2B]

So for now, it is just my argument against his argument, based mainly on assumptions and logical points rather than scientific evidence :-(

Maybe you are not on your own.
Try looking at this research
“Two studies carried out in Italy and Brazil, involving more than 100,000 people, found the vaccine reduced the number of coronavirus-related hospital admissions.”
https://www.diabetes.co.uk/news/2020/oct/nhs-flu-vaccine-found-to-offer-protection-against-covid-19.html

I haven’t read the actual studies so can’t vouch for them, but diabetes uk will have looked carefully before making this statement.

[DonInWales (OP)]

Thanks AlanCalverd.  Understood.

Colin2B - I think I read that article a few months ago, but not seen anything similar since.  That article even suggests that having the Flu Jab may 'reduce' the number of covid infections (and therefore, presumably covid deaths?)  - hence the opposite of my friend's later (Consipracy) theory.

But to 'me' this article just seems like a matter of finding data that supports a theory - rather than proving it :-(

Actually, I suspect that there will be no thorough scientific testing that proves 'any' theory, until some time in the future, probably when COVID has calmed down.

Unfortunately, in the meantime I have to put up with this friend claiming to know the 'truth'.....lol....

[alancalverd]

I have to put up with this friend claiming to know the 'truth'.

You have put your finger on it. The only people who know the truth are priests, politicians and philosophers, none of which are to be trusted. Scientists just have "data consistent with a robust and predictive hypothesis". 

[AnthonyJ]

 Here in the states there is disagreement on any matter you bring up. 'Masks stop your breathing.' I wear a mask for any contact with non family members and somehow I don't faint. 'Vaccines are used for mind control.' I will not comment on that one. Disinformation is becoming a major problem here.....I hope things change.

[Kryptid]

I wear a mask for any contact with non family members

I do the same. I wear it all day at work (and my work is physically demanding, so obviously it doesn't impair my breathing too much).

Disinformation is becoming a major problem here.....

As a fellow American, I can attest to the truth of that. At least my immediate family sees the value in masks.

[evan_au]

his claim that the Flu vaccine raises the risk of COVID death

When it looked like COVID-19 was going to be a Big Thing this year, the Australian government started a big advertising campaign to get people to take up the seasonal flu vaccine (which is free for over-65s, people with chronic conditions, and subsidized for everyone else).
- Since they were starting a campaign of free COVID testing, they didn't want flu patients swamping the COVID testing,
- And they didn't want (preventable) flu cases from clogging ICU beds that could be used for (non-preventable) COVID cases.
- They didn't want COVID patients catching flu in hospital (and vice-versa), which would have made the outcome worse for both groups!
- Through the winter months, it was also mandatory to show evidence of flu vaccination before visiting aged care homes (this requirement has been relaxed during the summer months - I was able to visit my mother-in-law last week without showing my flu certificate)
- Flu vaccination, in conjunction with social distancing has really reduced flu rates this year. See Figure 1, in the following link:
https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/cda-surveil-ozflu-flucurr.htm/$File/National-Influenza-Season-Summary2020.pdf

As statistics show, Australia has a pretty low rate of COVID infection & death
- So I would argue that the seasonal flu vaccine reduces COVID deaths - at least in the sense that it allows better detection and control of COVID cases.

[Colin2B]

As statistics show, Australia has a pretty low rate of COVID infection & death
- So I would argue that the seasonal flu vaccine reduces COVID deaths - at least in the sense that it allows better detection and control of COVID cases.

The Italian and Brazil studies looked at deaths and saw fewer in those who had had flu vaccine. They only saw a small number of co-infections so unlikely to be due to that.
Netherlands study showed fewer infections in those who had had flu vaccine, which is more interesting . https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.14.20212498v1.full.pdf

While none of these prove causation, they and other studies are pointing to a possible link which may be:
“This is supported by research showing that single-stranded RNA of the flu virus binds to Toll-like receptor (TLR), and this elicits immune responses, both humoral and T cell., as well as innate immune responses due to priming by increased cytokine release. This results in trained natural killer (NK) cells, which can then be activated by other viruses like SARS-CoV-2 as well.”
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200705/Research-suggests-protective-effect-of-influenza-vaccine-against-COVID-19-severity-and-mortality.aspx

A summary of current investigations that make it worthwhile taking a flu vaccine:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-flu-shot-might-reduce-coronavirus-infections-early-research-suggests/

I’ve had mine