Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Cells, Microbes & Viruses => Topic started by: Petrochemicals on 17/12/2020 15:56:24
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Yes, being magnanimous in defeat.
I have to agree with Alan that you have lost all credibility as a reliable judge of reality in this subject.
Others have tried to point out where you are in error
Being as someone locked the thread Colin, I cannot get you to answer this there. https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=78890.new#new
I was just wondering if you could answer Colin, even copying an answer with credit, as for why sweden who wear no masks is little better than the mask wearing public of Britain and France regarding corona cases and fatalities. I would have expected a result by now.
Plus why do you think lockdowns are worthwhile considering sweden has none and this intermittent lockdown situation could persist for years until everyone is vaccinated. It is putting a terrible toll on people, their lives, their futures.
You cannot say I have lost credibility without giving a answer, I cannot find one in the thread that does satisfactorily answer the above points.
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9063679/Swedens-king-says-countrys-no-lockdown-coronavirus-approach-failed.html
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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9063679/Swedens-king-says-countrys-no-lockdown-coronavirus-approach-failed.html
Queen says "let them eat cake"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_them_eat_cake
Turned out well.
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From the beginning we knew the statistical result from the Diamond Princess stats where 3711 passengers and staff mixed together for 2 week before recognising that we had a pandemic flu virus19 on our hands.
Result 13 deaths and 712 infections who all survived out of 3711. So 13/3711x100,000=350 people will die per 100,000 most of them elderly.
Stopping our children going to school is a complete denial of their human rights, a total nonsense which only benefits the test drug manufacturers and does nothing to cure the virus. I.E. A waste of money and resources. People in refugee camps life a freer life than that?
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When you say things like "
People in refugee camps life a freer life than that?
you miss the point.
They are not free from covid risk.
It's not a like-for- like comparison.
But let's have a look at the stats
350 people will die per 100,000
3500 per million
There's about 66.7 million in the UK
So, that's a death toll of almost quarter of a million people
The great plague of 1665 which people still talk about today killed 68600 people in the UK
Even Boris wasn't stupid enough to want to go down in history as the man responsible for 3 or 4 times as many deaths as the plague.
Or, if you prefer, roughly as many as the "Spanish Flu" pandemic.
How about 14 times the death toll from HIV?
(Not the UK deaths- the whole world's)
You really need to stop being so careless with other people's lives.
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Stopping our children going to school is a complete denial of their human rights,
I would rather say that "sentencing children to death (and their parents and teachers) is a complete denial of their human rights".
We know that children are very susceptible to influenza, and that they spread it very easily in the playground, and to and from their families. So the right thing to do in a severe influenza outbreak (like the 1917 pandemic) is to shut down schools. That is not a denial of their human rights.
We know that children are not very susceptible to COVID-19, and do not spread it as much as adults.
But venues like pubs with loud music, where adults spend a long time, speak loudly, are unlikely to social distance and cannot wear masks (because they are drinking) are major sites for COVID spread. So shutting pubs (or limiting hours or even limiting them to take-away) is one of the first steps to take.
If you don't take the simple and effective steps early (like shutting pubs and mandating masks), then you are forced to take drastic and ineffective steps later (like shutting schools).
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We know that children are not very susceptible to COVID-19, and do not spread it as much as adults.
Well...
"Kids catch and spread coronavirus half as much as adults, Iceland study confirms"
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/12/we-now-know-how-much-children-spread-coronavirus/
A factor of two doesn't seem to me to be enough to make a policy decision on.
Stopping our children going to school is a complete denial of their human rights,
So... we break their human rights 6 times a year for holidays.
It's not as if we are stopping them learning. There's a lot of on-line stuff happening.
It's not as good (and it's really not as good at social development)
But we do know that children who grew up in war zones generally still do OK.
This is peanuts compared to that.
a total nonsense which only benefits the test drug manufacturers
That doesn't seem to parse.
does nothing to cure the virus.
Nobody ever said it did.
But what really worries me is this
So 13/3711x100,000=350 people will die per 100,000 most of them elderly.
I'm fairly sure the site rules say you are not allowed to slur any particular group of people.
Saying we should let them die seems to be the ultimate slur.
Imagine that it had said
"So 13/3711x100,000=350 people will die per 100,000 most of them women" or
"most of them Black people."
ACSinUK would , quite rightly, have been kicked unceremoniously off the site.
Why is he still here?
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Stopping our children going to school is a complete denial of their human rights,
I would rather say that "sentencing children to death (and their parents and teachers) is a complete denial of their human rights".
Good god, is ebola around? Corona is little threat to children or their parents. Stopping one part of society from doing something for the benefit of another part of society is a denial of human rights. We all have free will and choice, if you do not wish to go out that is up to you. No one stops me jumping off high places, I choose not to myself. Would you spike yourself with a used needle bin?
# swear filter p r I c k with a needle
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How things have changed. I always regarded school as an imposition rather than a right.
Anyway, the law says that children must be offered a free and full education to the extent of their abilities up to whatever age is least embarrassing to the unemployment statistics, after which they must be encouraged to take out a huge loan to keep them out of the way for another 3 years. But the law does not specify that said education must be obtained by sitting in a stuffy classroom with a bunch of disruptive louts and knuckledraggers whose only contribution is to expose you to the prejudices of their worthless parents and steal your lunch money. There must be a better way.
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Result 13 deaths and 712 infections who all survived out of 3711. So 13/3711x100,000=350 people will die per 100,000 most of them elderly.
Rubbish. People who aren't infected aren't going to die, or even suffer.
(13/712) x 67,000,000 = 1,223,315 deaths if you allow the virus to infect everyone in the UK. That's a lot of dead people, for no reason at all.
Add to that 13,400,000 acute infections requiring hospital treatment and about 5,000,000 long-term disabled, and you have a seriously damaged political reputation, which is the only thing that really matters, and the post-Thatcher dregs of the economy flushed down the toilet.
Don't criticise Acsin for sacrificing the elderly. IIRC he is about 70 and therefore ready to sacrifice himself for the greater glory of Boris. Perhaps he will be remembered for leading the charge of the New Old Contemptibles.
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Don't criticise Acsin for sacrificing the elderly. IIRC he is about 70 and therefore ready to sacrifice himself
I may even think he's to be commended for sacrificing himself.
But he's not entitled to sacrifice my dad.
Imagine it was a black guy saying
350 people will die per 100,000 most of them elderly black.
Would that be acceptable?
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If he was discussing an epidemic in Nigeria, he'd be beyond critcism. But the point is whether the number is an acceptable consequence of an entirely avoidable problem, which it obviously isn't.
Still, having changed the subject, you might be amused by the current obsession of the Institute of Physics, which has just circulated a diversity questionnaire with the covering note "Why are only 10% of our members black?", to which I replied "because 90% of the population of the British Isles is white". For chrissake, this must be the most numerate professional body after the Institute of Mathematics, but blind to the obvious.
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BC Quote 350 people will die per 100,000 thats 3500 per million.
There's about 66.7 million in the UK. So, that's a death toll of almost a quarter of a million people
Yes, 233,450 thousand British people could die of which about a third have already died. So, the quicker a vaccine can stop the pandemic the better. Next time, we must respond immediately with much faster development and production of an EUA vaccine which could have protected us all by now. Testing kids and closing schools is just not the correct answer .
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A factor of two doesn't seem to me to be enough to make a policy decision on.
Thanks for the link, BC - very interesting.
The thing to keep in mind is that the R0 of SARS-COV2 is around 2.5-3.5 (at least, that is an early estimate that I recall). If we can get it below 1.0, then numbers will decline (and it helps contact tracing if the absolute numbers are low to begin with!).
Infectivity of school-age children
The linked article only quoted the 2:1 ratio in the headline, but then it goes on to talk about two different places that this ratio matters:
- The chance of getting infected
- The chance of passing it on to someone else
- If both of those factors are halved for children, then the total reduction is 4:1, and you have just reduced R0 below 1.0 for this population sub-group
Add to this a couple of other observations:
- The risk reduction is greater than 2:1 for children under 12. So child-care centers and primary schools could remain open longer
- At my wife's school, they have introduced precautions like:
- It is made very clear to parents that children must not come to school with any cold symptoms
- Parents are no longer able to mingle with each other or other children - the children are dropped off and the parents leave, because parents are a major source of transmission
- Any cold symptoms displayed by children results in isolation and the parents must pick them up immediately
- Teachers eat meals separately, instead of together, as teacher-teacher transmission is more important than child to teacher
- The aim is to ensure that within the school, R0 stays below 1.0, and (ideally) the absolute number of infections remains at 0
- The article quotes COVID-19 advice from University of Melbourne that “Schools should absolutely be the first priority to open, and the last to close."
- This advice is specific to COVID-19, and is totally different from the situation with Influenza.
Infectivity of Adults
Which brings us back to the locations that should be the first to close:
- Areas populated by adults are a risk
- Anywhere with people speaking loudly or yelling and/or singing - that includes pubs, football matches and choirs
- Areas where people are close together, and physical distancing is not maintained - that includes public transport
- Areas where air circulation is poor - that includes many indoor locations
- Areas where people can't or won't wear masks - like restaurants and pubs
- In these areas, R0 is well above 3.5, and these areas should be the first to close (or adopt more COVID-safe practices like reducing the people per m2, wearing masks, opening windows, watching events on TV rather than attending in-person, ordering take-away instead of table-service at restaurants, tracking attendance to improve contact tracing, etc etc).
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BC Quote 350 people will die per 100,000 thats 3500 per million.
There's about 66.7 million in the UK. So, that's a death toll of almost a quarter of a million people
Yes, 233,450 thousand British people could die of which about a third have already died. So, the quicker a vaccine can stop the pandemic the better. Next time, we must respond immediately with much faster development and production of an EUA vaccine which could have protected us all by now. Testing kids and closing schools is just not the correct answer .
So, what you are saying is that even Boris' half hearted attempt at a quarantine, implemented badly, and too late. With the implication from ministers and senior advisors that it's not important still saved two thirds.
Just think what doing it properly would achieve.
And yes, it would be better to have vaccines quicker.
All we need is a time machine.
But, in the real world, lets go with restricting the spread of the virus.
I have a nasty feeling that we are about to find out how well closing stuff and reducing travel has worked.
Watch for the new spike in cases when the Xmas/ new year parties have done their bit.
For chrissake, this must be the most numerate professional body after the Institute of Mathematics, but blind to the obvious.
I wonder why they let you in then.
I replied "because 90% of the population of the British Isles is white".
But it isn't.
It's about 85% white (records vary)
So roughly 15% of the organisation's members should be from other groups, but only 10% are.
So about a third of them are "missing".
That's a reasonable basis for asking why.
Part of the answer might be white people who refuse to accept that there's a problem.
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this ratio matters:
- The chance of getting infected
- The chance of passing it on to someone else
- If both of those factors are halved for children, then the total reduction is 4:1, and you have just reduced R0 below 1.0 for this population sub-group
And if you close the schools, and keep the kids at home then after a short while, you drop the two factors to zero.
Difficult to do any better than that.
I'm not saying we should keep the pubs or churches open.
It's not an either/ or thing.
The further down we can push R the better.
Closing the pubs will do that.
So will closing the schools.
Why not do both?
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It's about 85% white (records vary)
UK census says 87.5%. The IOP includes the Republic of Ireland which is a bit "whiter". Given the age distribution of IOP members (lots of pre-Idi Amin dinosaurs and quite a few pre-Windrush amoebae) 90% is about right.
Membership is offered to all new physics graduates. The only qualification is a degree in physics or related subject. Associateship is open to any and all apprentices, trainees and undergraduates.
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BC Quote 350 people will die per 100,000 thats 3500 per million.
Wrong again. Your original hypothesis was incorrect. You said 712 people were infected, not 3711.
The best scientific (i.e. not fudged by a political redefinition of death) figure we have for fatality rate is about 4%. Multiply by the UK population and you have around 2.7 million additional corpses to bury within 6 months if you ""wait for herd immunity" (i.e. do nothing). The normal rate is about 450,000.
Meanwhile the population is getting older and there is no evidence of lasting immunity, so we can expect an additional 1 - 2% annual deaths for ever - pretty much doubling the normal death rate.
This will vastly increase the cost of all insurance premiums.
But don't forget the 10% longterm disability, which will reduce the working population and double the exchequer costs of benefits and health services.
The UK generally runs with about 0.2% of the population in hospital at any time. We cannot afford to double that number.
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UK census says 87.5%.
What date?
I was looking at this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_the_United_Kingdom#Ethnicity
92.2% in 2001
87.2% in 2011
and extrapolating
something like 85% in 2021 (which starts in a couple of weeks)
The point remains.
If it should be 13% and it's 10% then about 1 in 4 is missing.
That's still a problem.
Of course, it might be that the institute is doing a fine job in difficult circumstances.
If it enrols physics graduates and. for example, 95 % are white then getting a membership that's 90% white is progressive.
The real problem is probably largely historical.
Universities were blindingly white until very recently.
But, even pointing that out doesn't absolve the institute of responsibility for looking at the question.
You citing a "reason" that's simplistic and wrong isn't going to help.
we can expect an additional 1 - 2% annual deaths for ever - pretty much doubling the normal death rate.
Really?
The current death rate is (unsurprisingly) quite close to the birth rate.
If you do that then you end up with more people dying than are actually here to die.
I guess it's one way to control the population.
Your analysis of people on the ship
People who aren't infected aren't going to die, or even suffer.
implies that they were there "forever".
It's true that only 712 were infected.
But we simply don't know how many would have been infected if they were stuck on the ship for longer.
So, your analysis is flawed- but your own.
My numbers were flawed; but a quote. Because it wasn't worth correcting ACS's error.
Even with his optimistic figure the death toll was unacceptable.
The real figure will be worse, but I wasn't going to distracted by an argument about how much worse.
The point remains that he's remarkably careless with other people's lives.
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most of them elderly.
It sounds like you are implying it's not a big deal that the elderly are the most vulnerable.
Stopping our children going to school is a complete denial of their human rights
You know this is temporary, right? Children typically go to school for 13 years (at least in the United States, and excluding college). Not to mention that they are still distance learning. So what right of theirs is being denied, exactly?
a total nonsense which only benefits the test drug manufacturers
How?
does nothing to cure the virus.
That's not the point of a vaccine.
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Quote from: alancalverd on Today at 12:14:10
UK census says 87.5%.
What date?
2011 census, and yoju ar eright, it was 87.1, not 87.5%
Given that the IOP (a) includes the Irish Republic (96.3% white in 2016) and (b) only recruits graduates to Member status (so the more appropriate data would be from the previous censuses) 10% non-white membership indicates exceptional diversity and suggests we need to encourage white kids to study physics!
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It's true that only 712 were infected.
But we simply don't know how many would have been infected if they were stuck on the ship for longer.
Probably everyone, eventually, since nobody is known to have inherent immunity and they were mostly adults. However since the passengers were segregated in cabins we can assume that the reported infections account for pretty nearly all those actually infected at the time of release, so the crude lethality rate up to the point of release is deaths divided by infections, not deaths divided by potential infections.
Even with his optimistic figure the death toll was unacceptable.
What he, HM Government and half the population of the USA seem not to appreciate, is that any avoidable death is unacceptable.
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The thing to keep in mind is that the R0 of SARS-COV2 is around 2.5-3.5
Not being pedantic, but a bit concerned about the loose use of jargon in this context.
R is not a property of the virus, but a consequence of human behavior.
If all the carriers self-isolate, R = 0
If carrier zero attends a Trumpist rally and kisses the other 10 surviving members, R0 = 10, and if they all go and spread the gospel likewise, R Trumpist = 10 x the number of days they remain infectious - maybe 10. That's a pretty good way of solving one problem, at least.
I wince whenever I hear a politician say we are reducing the R value for COVID.
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Quote from: alancalverd on Today at 12:14:10
UK census says 87.5%.
What date?
2011 census, and yoju ar eright, it was 87.1, not 87.5%
Given that the IOP (a) includes the Irish Republic (96.3% white in 2016) and (b) only recruits graduates to Member status (so the more appropriate data would be from the previous censuses) 10% non-white membership indicates exceptional diversity and suggests we need to encourage white kids to study physics!
There are many factors.
This can't be one of them.
"because 90% of the population of the British Isles is white".
Because it's wrong
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Here in Sydney, we have had a new outbreak in the past week - it appears to be a strain from the USA.
It appears that while international passengers must enter quarantine for 2 weeks, pilots and cabin crew on the same flights are free to move around the city. Both passengers and crew have come from the same overseas city, so have probably have similar exposure risk. That sounds like a chink in the armour that must be closed.
My planned summer vacation in January is looking less likely every day...
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There are many factors.
This can't be one of them.
If you insist:
Institute of Physics members are all and only graduates or equivalent, and nearly all British or Irish (other states have equivalent societies)
Very few graduates are aged under 20, so we can assume that nobody born after 1999 is a Member.
The 2001 census of the UK returned 93.14% British, Irish or Other, white.
It is therefore reasonable to conclude to a first approximation that the IoP membership being 90% white is a representative sample of the ethnic distribution of the population.
Where's the flaw? What are the "other factors"?
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Where's the flaw?
You made this statement
"because 90% of the population of the British Isles is white".
which is false.
That's a pretty big flaw if you plan to use it in justification of something else.
Other factors are likely to include the fact that the membership is an "integral" of the demographics. The fact that science subjects are seen by some people as "white male" subjects- more so in the past but to some extent today.
The fact that one of the requirements is a degree, and the demographics of university students are not the same as those of the population as a whole- poverty plays a part here.
Lots of things might be factors.
Something that is not true can not logically be a factor.
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Fact 1. 87.8% of the current population of the British Isles is white. That was near enough 90% to make me question the value of the adjective in "only 10%" of the IoP membership is non-white.
Fact 2. Only those aged over 20 can qualify for membership since the qualification is a physics degree, which is rarely awarded to anyone younger.
Fact 3. Of the population aged over 20, more than 90% are white, and the older the slice, the whiter it gets. We have some very old members.
Conclusion: it would be very surprising if more than 10% of the membership was not white.
Your opinions and vague hints at other factors are fairly widely held but not supported by more detailed statistics held by the IoP which suggest, among other things, that girls who identify as black are twice as likely to study physics beyond A level than those who identify as white. I've no idea why, but if the numbers are statistically significant, it's an interesting finding.
Science advances through the study of anomalies, not the repetition of the obvious.
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pilots and cabin crew on the same flights are free to move around the city.
Utterly insane! Whilst a passenger is unlikely to come within 2m of more than six others, cabin crew will have been up close and personal to all of them, and sit in a briefing room with the pilots for an hour between flights. It's a miracle that any of them survive.
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Fact 1. 87.8% of the current population of the British Isles is white. That was near enough 90% to make me question the value of the adjective in "only 10%" of the IoP membership is non-white.
Fact 2. Only those aged over 20 can qualify for membership since the qualification is a physics degree, which is rarely awarded to anyone younger.
Fact 3. Of the population aged over 20, more than 90% are white, and the older the slice, the whiter it gets. We have some very old members.
Conclusion: it would be very surprising if more than 10% of the membership was not white.
Your opinions and vague hints at other factors are fairly widely held but not supported by more detailed statistics held by the IoP which suggest, among other things, that girls who identify as black are twice as likely to study physics beyond A level than those who identify as white. I've no idea why, but if the numbers are statistically significant, it's an interesting finding.
Science advances through the study of anomalies, not the repetition of the obvious.
You forgot fact 4
"None of facts 1 through 3 is what Alan actually said (and, reportedly, wrote to the IOP so that they could advance their studies)".
It's really nobody else's fault that you failed to say something like
""because 90% of the eligible population of the British Isles is white"."
girls who identify as black are twice as likely to study physics beyond A level than those who identify as white.
That is, indeed, interesting.
On the other hand, my recollection is that from my rather large school only 1 girl studied physics at A level and none went on to do it at uni.
I realise things have changed in many ways but there is still a fair chance that you are looking at "twice nothing is still nothing".
It seems things have improved, but not as much as I had hoped. It's about 4:1.
https://www.iop.org/sites/default/files/2018-10/why-not-physics.pdf
Physics is still largely "seen" as a "boys" subject.
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"pilots and cabin crew on the same flights are free to move around the city..
I cannot visit my sister but if her boiler fails I can as a workman fix it for her within the rules. Same applies to aircrew..
Anyway, forget about testing kids and other trivialities but let us get on vaccinating everyone fast.
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If another mutate of the Covid 19 occurs then immediately check that the vaccine still works and if necessary modify it slightly before sending it to some fit volunteers in old age care homes to prove it works with no adverse effects noticed.
We do not have time to be pedantic and legalistic; this is a national emergency!!!!
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If you had a new vaccine tomorrow, it would take a month to prove it works, by which time half the population would be infected if you removed all restrictions on movement and assembly.
The proper response to an epidemic is immediate and total quarantine. Once you have stopped the virus from infecting new carriers you may have the time to investigate a vaccine to prevent it starting again.
This is the best time to do the right thing. Most industries will be closed or running on skeleton staff for the next 7 days anyway, so a 2 week total quarantine, followed by a further 2 weeks for anyone with symptoms, would bring the problem under control at negligible cost.
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Well, if this was the very start of the virus then quarantine could work but the virus is everywhere already so its just too late This virus is just a nasty flu and will fade away once the vaccine starts building up our herd immunity.
Follow Tony Blair's advice quickly before it mutates again.
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Well, if this was the very start of the virus then quarantine could work but the virus is everywhere already so its just too late
The virus isn't "everywhere" you nitwit. That's why we are trying to stop it spreading.
For example it's not, and never has been in my dad's house.
We would prefer to keep it that way.
That's what Quarantine does.
This virus is just a nasty flu
No, it is not. If you think it is then you are utterly unqualified to tell anyone anything about it.
Why do you do this?
Why do you come here and post nonsense?
Do you like being called a fool?
.Follow Tony Blair's advice
Is he an epidemiologist?
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I like Bored Chemist. He doesn't "sugar coat" his replies. Just gives it to you straight, in an incisive scientific manner.
He's often wrong of course.
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sending it to some fit volunteers in old age care homes to prove it works
Volunteers in care homes ? Perhaps with some infected blankets ?
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Well, if this was the very start of the virus then quarantine could work but the virus is everywhere already so its just too late This virus is just a nasty flu and will fade away once the vaccine starts building up our herd immunity.
Follow Tony Blair's advice quickly before it mutates again.
It's never too late to quarantine. Nor is it ever too early, but our dear government missed that chance because they treated it as a "nasty flu" despite all the evidence.
Follow Tony Blair's advice? Invade Iraq? Or build a massive dome with nothing inside it?
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Sir Simon Stevens head of NHS England has just said 22 million people should be vaccinated by the spring (late Apri) , that is everyone aged 50 and over and all vulnerable people in the UK.
It looks as though he has used argument similar to this
Assume phased rollout with final doses administered end April we should have 18m people protected by Oxford vaccine. Not sure what the details of other vaccines are
And added 10m Pfizer doses = 5m protected
Unfortunately this still leaves the working population at risk so until they are vaccinated I can’t see any return to normal.
Early feedback from the frontline indicates that under 65s are becoming the majority of admissions. As @alan pointed out, the older, rather confusing, ONS statistics do show that half of patients were under 50, this is an increasing trend and is causing concern for many hospitals, quote from Bolton is typical:
“The hospital is now seeing an increased number of patients under 65 being admitted, with some in their 40s and 50s, which is a significantly younger age group than at the peak of the pandemic in April and May.”
Or from the FT:
“NHS staff and executives pointed to the very different demands now being made on the health service compared with the early months of the crisis. Ms Cordery said: “People are surviving but they need to be hospitalised for longer. The profile of people with Covid is younger, but they need more treatment.””
Not only treatment, but for many there will be longer term health issues and an increased load on the health services.
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He's often wrong of course.
Not in my experience.
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Well, if this was the very start of the virus then quarantine could work but the virus is everywhere already so its just too late This virus is just a nasty flu and will fade away once the vaccine starts building up our herd immunity.
Follow Tony Blair's advice quickly before it mutates again.
Follow Tony Blair's advice? Invade Iraq? Or build a massive dome with nothing inside it?
Lie and decieve Alan.
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No, he never deceived me. I resigned from life membership of the Labour Party when he became PM.
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He's often wrong of course.
Like when?
Also, to be fair, I have to admit that it's easy to look clever if you are posting a reply to Acsinuk...
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I do not mind clever replies, as long as they agree to get a move on and vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
Thank goodness the Oxford Zeneca vaccine is now approved, so we can speed up the roll out.
Feels like it will be a Happy New Year after all.
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vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
How did you come to the conclusion that they ever had any other plan?
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Oxford, if my memory is correct had developed a vaccine for testing on some volunteers by May. Why the 6 month delay?? This is a national emergency BC isn't it?
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Oxford, if my memory is correct had developed a vaccine for testing on some volunteers by May. Why the 6 month delay?? This is a national emergency BC isn't it?
Just a guess here but maybe two things.
They needed to check if it worked and they needed to find out if it was safe.
I realise from your past posts that you do not consider these to be important, but most people do.
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Well, if this was the very start of the virus then quarantine could work but the virus is everywhere already so its just too late
I heard some measurements that a lockdown reduced transmission by 98%.
- This is a lot more effective than masks, at perhaps 60% if the talker wears one, and perhaps 80% if everyone wears one
- So in fact, if infection rates are really bad, a lockdown is the best solution to get it under control.
- Of course there are degrees of lockdown, and not all of them will have similar effectiveness...
Listen (20 minutes): https://play.acast.com/s/nature/audiolong-read-controllingcovidwithscience-icelandsstory
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Why the 6 month delay??
Because that's how long it takes to
1. Demonstrate safety and tolerability
2. Optimise dose
3. Demonstrate efficacy
4. Design a manufacturing and quality control process
5. Source the capital and labor to manufacture
6. Test the process against raw material variability
7. Demonstrate product shelf life and ambient tolerance
8. Demonstrate medium-term efficacy (stuff that gives 100% immunity for 2 weeks isn't a lot of use, but is 80% for a year good enough?)
9. Assess longterm side-effects
10. Ramp up production and distribution
11. Actually sell and deliver the product
Ethical review and product licensing were done in a matter of days because the paperwork was as brilliant as the concept.
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This is a national emergency BC isn't it?
It needn't have been, but Downing Street turned it into one.
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Take a look at this report https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/global-push-covid-19-vaccines-china-aims-win-friends-and-cut-deals
It shows that by May 2019 China had already developed a vaccine based on a mod to normal flu vaccine that worked but no-one believed them and WHO just panicked everyone.
Last May was the time to Emergency Use Authorise any or possible all the different types of vaccine to be used in clinical trials on middle aged volunteers and larger groups of over 80's to prove which is the best vaccine to use. Thus by June we would have known which vaccine to mass produce thus avoiding the second peak.
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Take a look at this report https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/global-push-covid-19-vaccines-china-aims-win-friends-and-cut-deals
It shows that by May 2019 China had already developed a vaccine based on a mod to normal flu vaccine that worked but no-one believed them and WHO just panicked everyone.
Last May was the time to Emergency Use Authorise any or possible all the different types of vaccine to be used in clinical trials on middle aged volunteers and larger groups of over 80's to prove which is the best vaccine to use. Thus by June we would have known which vaccine to mass produce thus avoiding the second peak.
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Thus by June we would have known which vaccine to mass produce thus avoiding the second peak.
We do know that answer to that.
We should mass produce all of the safe ones.
Some will work better in some circumstances than others. Some may, for example, do a better job on whatever the next strain of the virus is like.
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Take a look at this report
I did
It says
" in China. CanSino and two other Chinese companies—one owned by the government, the other working closely with its regulatory agency—are investing substantial resources, testing four candidates in tens of thousands of volunteers around the world, and are likely only days or weeks away from announcing the outcomes of efficacy trials, just behind the encouraging early results announced over the past month by Pfizer and BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, and Russia’s Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology."
So, the Chinese have made roughly the same progress as the other teams.
Nobody had a trustworthy vaccine in May, did they?
So what, exactly, are you talking about?
Yes, some people in China were getting injected with something*- in the hope that it would work.
At about the same time, people in America were dying from chloroquine poisoning. That didn't work.
Speculation is easy and quick.
Testing isn't.
*"Hou Li-Hua, a researcher at the academy who works on the vaccine project, says it was “true news”—an attempt to protect the scientists in the hard-hit city."
Don't you know what the word "attempt" means?
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It shows that by May 2019 China had already developed a vaccine
There's a significant difference between May 2019 and May 2020. In the interim, COVID became a pandemic in the West whilst the Chinese crushed the epidemic and developed and tested a vaccine.
If we stick to what the article actually said:
And China’s vaccine effort is cursed by its dramatic success with aggressive public health measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, including forced isolation of cases and testing of entire cities. Whereas the raging pandemic in the United States has enabled trials there to quickly deliver signals of efficacy, “China crushed the coronavirus epidemic early, so they lost the opportunity to test the efficacy of their vaccines there,”
How sad, that the Chinese government attacked and solved the problem (only 3 reported deaths since June) instead of ignoring it until they had a "proper" solution and an uncontrollable epidemic. Will those dreadful communists never learn to sacrifice people and destroy economies for political popularity?
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I understand that the Chinese vaccine is also being trialed in Brazil.
Unlike China, the Brazilian President Bolsinaro followed Trump's pro-virus policy, so Brazil has plenty of victims to test the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Still waiting for detailed results, but early hints are that it appears less effective than some of the other vaccine candidates.
See, for example: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/brazilian-researchers-say-chinese-made-covid-19-vaccine-effective
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the Chinese vaccine is also being trialed in Brazil.
No point trialling it in New Zealand...
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I understand that the Chinese vaccine is also being trialed in Brazil.
Unlike China, the Brazilian President Bolsinaro followed Trump's pro-virus policy, so Brazil has plenty of victims to test the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Still waiting for detailed results, but early hints are that it appears less effective than some of the other vaccine candidates.
See, for example: https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/brazilian-researchers-say-chinese-made-covid-19-vaccine-effective
An inactive corona was worth attempting Alan, simple and proven safe in other viruses, not always effective.
USA is not as bad as the UK funnily enough in regards corona.
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USA is not as bad as the UK funnily enough in regards corona.
So 4.8% of the population infected is "not as bad" as 3.7%?
Your interpretation of statistics seems idiosyncratic, to say the least.
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USA is not as bad as the UK funnily enough in regards corona.
So 4.8% of the population infected is "not as bad" as 3.7%?
Your interpretation of statistics seems idiosyncratic, to say the least.
Yes Alan it has more reported cases, better reporting, as can be seen in the mortality rate being lower than the UK. Goodness knows what our true figures are, but the USA has certainly been more vigilant.
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Nobody knows what the true figures for COVID deaths are in any country since "COVID death" is determined by local politics, not international science. The best estimate of attributable harm is the number of excess deaths since "week zero", which you define as the first week when, say, 100 attributed deaths were recorded, because COVID arrived in different countries at different times. You then have to add a phase factor to account for the fact that infection rates vary differently in different countries and it takes anything from 2 to 20 weeks to die from COVID-related disease. Finally, if you want to compare the effectiveness of public health measures, you need to factor in the population density, which is the primary determinant of infection rate of you do nothing.
The massive surge in infections caused by Thanksgiving idiocy in the USA is just beginning to reflect in the death stats, and as there is no treatment for COVID, we can reasonably assume that the lethality rate will be pretty much the same in all countries.
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Nobody knows what the true figures for COVID deaths are in any country since "COVID death" is determined by local politics, not international science. The best estimate of attributable harm is the number of excess deaths since "week zero", which you define as the first week when, say, 100 attributed deaths were recorded, because COVID arrived in different countries at different times. You then have to add a phase factor to account for the fact that infection rates vary differently in different countries and it takes anything from 2 to 20 weeks to die from COVID-related disease. Finally, if you want to compare the effectiveness of public health measures, you need to factor in the population density, which is the primary determinant of infection rate of you do nothing.
The massive surge in infections caused by Thanksgiving idiocy in the USA is just beginning to reflect in the death stats, and as there is no treatment for COVID, we can reasonably assume that the lethality rate will be pretty much the same in all countries.
Well, I can see your point about it being thanksgiving, but the uk will have the same with Christmas. I sort of agree that Trumps handling of the pandemic was dented by thanks giving, but personally it's pretty clear that as hospitals fill the pandemic is worse, this just happens to coincide with school attendance. Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk even with thanks giving accounted for.
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I sort of agree that Trumps handling of the pandemic was dented by thanks giving,
In what way?
Trump's handling of the crisis has been pretty uniformly bad.
So has Boris'.
The countries have pretty much the same deaths per million US 1074 vs UK 1096.
The USA has a lot more cases per million but, as Alan pointed out, that figure isn't reliable. (It might be worth noting that the UK has done more testing per million)
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Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk
You keep saying that, but have failed to provide your definition of "better" as used on your planet, or any evidence that numerate speakers of idiomatic English would consider "better".
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The covid crisis is effecting our childrens education but are keeping the schools open for health workers anyway. So no problem for the government to advise people that primary and even some secondary education can be obtained at their childs normal school on a voluntary basis. It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.
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It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.
Are you assuming that all parents are epidemiologists, virologists and educational psychologists?
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It is up to the parents to decide what is best for their child and not the teachers or the government in my view.
Unfortunately, some parents are anti-vaxxers.
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Simple fact is the USA is still better than the uk
You keep saying that, but have failed to provide your definition of "better" as used on your planet, or any evidence that numerate speakers of idiomatic English would consider "better".
Lower mortality rate, rational identification, more freedom, functioning economy. Maybe you do not consider these better on your planet, but it may be planet hitler !
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There being no treatment for what is pretty much the same disease affecting pretty much the same demographic, (a) what is your definition of "mortality rate" and (b) which source of data are you using to calculate it?
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rational identification,
Would you like to explain what you think that means?
more freedom,
In the country where you can be arrested for owning lab glassware.?
What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?
functioning economy.
The function of the economy is to improve the lives of the people...
Neither the US nor the UK can really claim to be doing that.
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What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?
1. Anyone can get to be president. GWBush and Delirium Trump have demonstrated that no actual ability is required.
2. The president can pardon any Republican, no matter how heinous or unconstitutional his crime.
That is total feedom.
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There being no treatment for what is pretty much the same disease affecting pretty much the same demographic, (a) what is your definition of "mortality rate" and (b) which source of data are you using to calculate it?
Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
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What will we do if the NHS runs out of beds? Well, treat the young healthy patients first whilst accelerating the vaccination program in that area as a priority.
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Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
I.e. nothing to do with science. The UK government has decreed that a COVID death is one that occurs within 28 days of a positive diagnosis. So if you live 5 or 6 weeks, you don't count.
As has been pointed out many times in this forum, the only politics-free (i.e. believable) statistic is excess deaths, and that is only meaningful several months after a peak in infections.
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What will we do if the NHS runs out of beds?
let people die at home.
Well, treat the young healthy patients first whilst accelerating the vaccination program in that area as a priority.
There is no treatment. You can't be healthy and a patient. You can at best administer oxygen to people in distress.
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Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
I.e. nothing to do with science. The UK government has decreed that a COVID death is one that occurs within 28 days of a positive diagnosis. So if you live 5 or 6 weeks, you don't count.
So Britain is significantly worse? I suppose you're right Alan, it just puts it into perspective how well Trump is doing.
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puts it into perspective how well Trump is doing.
Yes... sort of.
Trump and Boris are doing about as "well" as eachother, which is to say they are both making a pig's ear of it.
BTw.. you seem to have missed these.
rational identification,
Would you like to explain what you think that means?
more freedom,
In the country where you can be arrested for owning lab glassware.?
What are the Americans "free" to do which I'm not?
functioning economy.
The function of the economy is to improve the lives of the people...
Neither the US nor the UK can really claim to be doing that.
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What are the best answers for Corona statistics?
I think the question is backwards.
Corona statistics are the best answers for willful ignorance and conspiracy theories.
Yesterday, Donald Trump tweeted
The number of cases and deaths of the China Virus is far exaggerated in the United States because of @CDCgov's ridiculous method of determination compared to other countries, many of whom report, purposely, very inacurately and low. "When in doubt, call it Covid." Fake News!
See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/01/03/trump-claims-covid-deaths-are-exaggerated-as-us-surpasses-350000/?sh=5a3e527137b6
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Incidentally, one way that excess deaths will underestimate COVID deaths is in the road toll.
- End-of year figures suggest that due to lockdowns and other travel restrictions, in 2020 Australia had its lowest road toll since about 1935...
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Incidentally, one way that excess deaths will underestimate COVID deaths is in the road toll.
- End-of year figures suggest that due to lockdowns and other travel restrictions, in 2020 Australia had its lowest road toll since about 1935...
Well connected Evan, but I have to think the toll from road deaths will be dwarfed by increase suicide, cancer victims, brain hemmorage and heart attacks.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casualties-in-great-britain-provisional-estimates-year-ending-june-2018#:~:text=Statistics%20on%20reported%20road%20casualties,severities%2C%20a%20decrease%20of%206%25
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-leeds-55300747
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1378879/suicide-awareness-lily-arkwright-lockdown-restrictions-struggle/amp
www.thesun.co.uk/news/12933678/covid-lockdown-heart-attacks-strokes/amp/
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Yesterday, Donald Trump tweeted...
Yesterday, Donald Trump tweeted lied...
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how well Trump is doing.
He has so far done nothing, and criticised everyone who did anything. He hasn't even taken the medicine he prescribed.
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how well Trump is doing.
He has so far done nothing, and criticised everyone who did anything. He hasn't even taken the medicine he prescribed.
That doesn't tally with your earlier admiration Alan or the figures.
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Where did you discern any admiration on my part, for any politician, least of all the loathsome, bankrupt, cowardly piece of ordure currently fomenting insurrection from the White House?
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Where did you discern any admiration on my part, for any politician, least of all the loathsome, bankrupt, cowardly piece of ordure currently fomenting insurrection from the White House?
Must just be my reading of it.
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Must just be my reading of it.
Learn to read properly.
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Student: Petrochemicals
Statistics FAIL
English FAIL
Grace, modesty and good manners PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL
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Student: Petrochemicals
Statistics FAIL
English FAIL
Grace, modesty and good manners PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL
Well I thank god I'm the incumbent, but you do favour trump .
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but you do favour trump .
What a stupid thing to say.
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Well I thank god I'm the incumbent, but you do favour trump .
If you do not retract this disgusting allegation immediately I will seek to have you banned from the forum.
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There being no treatment for what is pretty much the same disease affecting pretty much the same demographic, (a) what is your definition of "mortality rate" and (b) which source of data are you using to calculate it?
Mortality rate, those who have been listed as passing in relation to corona in statistics provided by the government.
I.e. nothing to do with science. The UK government has decreed that a COVID death is one that occurs within 28 days of a positive diagnosis. So if you live 5 or 6 weeks, you don't count.
It's the way it reads Alan, you seem to be saying, based on your posts that even though the USA has a lower mortality rate as in the official statistics, the UK government is jigging the figures to make us appear somewhat on par, where in actual fact trumps statistics are far far better.
Student: Petrochemicals
Statistics FAIL
English FAIL
Grace, modesty and good manners PRESIDENTIAL MATERIAL
I best be careful in regards to your threat, after all you are sooooooo civilyourself. 😉
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where in actual fact trumps statistics are far far better.
The countries have pretty much the same deaths per million US 1074 vs UK 1096.
If you think that 1074 is "far far better" than 1096 then it looks like we can add Maths to your list of fails.
It's the way it reads Alan
Only to you.
you seem to be saying,
Again, it only seems that way to you.
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In regards to the thread title, this is the resource I prefer to use: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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Stop this rhetoric and concentrate on the problem. We need urgent action and I have just heard some stupid nonsense about retired doctors and nurse volunteers being asked to undergo retraining to allow them to inject patients.
This is a national emergency, forget H&S requirements and get on with the job of vaccinating everyone now; before the next mutation arrives..
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Far from nonsense, alas.
Essential Continuing Professional Development now includes Risk Assessment, Fire Training and Equality and Diversity Training. I've just done the last of these in order to volunteer as a research project assessor, and you will be pleased to know that, should you have the temerity to submit a research project to the NHS, I would not discriminate against you on grounds of physical disability, use patronising (though they didn't mention matronising) diminutives, or assume anything about your preferred gender.
So you may be assured that, when you turn up for your vaccination, nobody will assume that you want the jab in your left arm, or even that you have a left arm, nor will they address you as "mate" or "love". There was nothing in the course or exam about science or medicine, so you might get a shot of hydroxychloroquinone from a blunt needle, but it will be done with the utmost respect for your dignity and autonomy.
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forget H&S requirements
So, you want people to die...
Why is that?
some stupid nonsense about retired doctors and nurse volunteers being asked to undergo retraining to allow them to inject patients.
Why is it nonsense?
Are you aware that medical staff get continuous training, and that it might have changed since they last did it?
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Yes, but....two recently retired GP friends have questioned the need for Fire Safety training, and both claim to remember how to inject vaccines, having done it several times a week for 40 years or so.
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two recently retired GP friends have questioned the need for Fire Safety training,
I presume you were able to answer them, and explain that, since they will be "in charge" of a large group of people (many of whom will be infirm)- and probably for some time to come, they need to be able to look after them.
It's not worth making much fuss about a delay of a few hours while someone reminds them which end of a syringe is the pointy one, and points out where the fire exits are.
The interesting question is "why wasn't this training offered, say, a month ago?"
It was pretty obvious that they were going to need to get a lot of vaccinators from somewhere.
Except, it appears that nothing is obvious to Boris; he's an idiot. He should never have been elected.
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No, they won't be in charge of anyone for more than a few minutes. The patients are registered with their own GPs and appropriate hospital departments. The job is to stick the pointy bit into the target area and squeeze the other end, and the fire exits are all clearly marked FIRE EXIT. Revision of anaphylaxis and resuscitation might have been useful.
Poor old Boris. He was elected only to represent the good people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, whose principal concerns are house prices, leaves on the Metropolitan line, and aircraft noise. He has almost completely resolved the latter problem as airlines go bust every day, and house prices in the suburbs are holding up as folk flee the city. Two out of three ain't bad. Unfortunately he was then selected for a job way beyond his competence and limited understanding of facts. Problem is that, surrounded by Teflon-coated liars and weasels with shares in breweries, retail shops and suchlike, he can't make the blame stick to anyone else when he encourages Joe Public to get infected for the greater glory of The Economy. If he were seen to listen to scientists and doctors, the whole business of politics would be called into question and there would be nowhere for unemployable PPE graduates to go in future.
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Poor old Boris.
He could have declined both rolesHe was elected only to represent the good people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Really?
I saw stacks of stuff about his campaign for that vote; but it all seemed to be focussed on a lie about "Getting Brexit done"- which he hasn't and an "oven ready deal"- which was impossible.
I didn't see a word about house prices in Ruislip.
It's as if he didn't give a flying one about his constituents- which may be only fair since they were not interested in him and would vote for a donkey wearing a blue rosette (some say they did) - and was only focussed on the job he was seeking to keep- as Prime minister.
That's the role to which he was elected by fewer than 100,000 people (not a bad trick, in a country of near 70 million).
The job is to stick the pointy bit into the target area and squeeze the other end
A bus driver's job is to drive the bus; but I still wan to know that they get fire/ fist aid training.
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The volunteer doctors and nurses will all have to be placed in a team who will be supervised by a fully qualified NHS person who will be constantly checking to make sure they comply with the NHS requirements and train them in the correct procedures. No additional training is required. This is a national emergency not a certificate collecting exercise.
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I saw stacks of stuff about his campaign for that vote; but it all seemed to be focussed on a lie about "Getting Brexit done"- which he hasn't and an "oven ready deal"- which was impossible.
Don't confuse a national party campaign to persuade everyone to vote for Conservative candidates in a general election, with whatever Boris sent to his prospective constituents. Did his name appear on your ballot paper? It certainly didn't on mine, nor that of anyone who doesn't live in his constituency. This is not the banana republic of America. Anyway he seems to have got Brexit done even if it turned out to be a bit of a frazzled turkey.
Quote from: alancalverd on Today at 10:52:01
The job is to stick the pointy bit into the target area and squeeze the other end
A bus driver's job is to drive the bus; but I still wan to know that they get fire/ fist aid training
I'd be more concerned with a PSV licence and type certification for the bus, knowing that the necessary emergency training is included in that licence.
AFAIK most doctors, after 45 years CPD and clinical practice, know enough about first aid that many retired GPs teach the subject to St Johns and Red Cross volunteers. I doubt that human anatomy has changed much since my pals retired last year.
You must remember that the first job of an NHS administrator, faced with a shrieking global emergency, is to cover his own arse with whatever paper is to hand and take whatever steps are necessary to belittle the expertise of those bloody professionals who insist on wasting the budget on patient services. In this case, it being Christmas, compulsory elf and safety training fitted the bill nicely.
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, knowing that the necessary emergency training is included in that licence.
It's good to see that you understand the need for emergency training for bus drivers.
Do you see how I might think it is a good idea for other groups too?
Anyway he seems to have got Brexit done
No.
He has kicked the can (of fish) down the road for another 5 years.
And that's before you look at trivial things like financial services- which simply aren't in the trade agreement but worth vastly more to the UK.
This isn't the end of the brexit negotiation; it's the start.
He really really hasn't got the job done.
Why would you pretend that he has?
Perhaps what'shisname was right and you are a Boris fan.
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it being Christmas,
Which year?