Post by: nudephil on 27/11/2020 16:12:03
When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
Post by: Kryptid on 27/11/2020 17:13:07
Post by: Glenballs on 07/12/2020 16:11:07
Glen asks the following?
When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?
what do you mean
Post by: Glenballs on 07/12/2020 16:12:12
Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).
what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/12/2020 18:16:23
It depends what you mean by "soon".Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).
what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon
It will take months to vaccinate a large enough pool of people for it to make a difference.
My guess (and it's no more than that) is that we are about half way through and have 6 to 12 months to go.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/12/2020 18:37:47
I agree with BC: 6 to 12 months looks about right, assuming, of course, that the vaccine confers reasonably longterm immunity. If not, this will drag on until we are close to 100% vaccination and annual top-ups.
Post by: evan_au on 07/12/2020 20:30:59
- That is why the Phase 3 clinical trials are continuing. Press releases have described the impact of the disease on the vaccinated people. But it hasn't really teased out how long the vaccine lasts.
- The press releases I've seen haven't yet described the level of protection for surrounding non-vaccinated people
- That means there is a real risk that the vaccinated people will ignore all precautions, and cause another outbreak
- Potentially, that means if you work in aged care and are exposed to the virus, you may still need to stop work until almost everyone has a good immune response (which may or may not come from the first vaccines on the market)
I suspect that travel insurance companies will resume insuring travelers who have been vaccinated.
- That will lead to a gradual growth in international air travel and resumption of cruises during 2021
- But travel won't get back to exactly where it was, as a number of companies have gone bankrupt during 2020
Many businesses have realized that teleconferencing can be an effective tool, and doesn't waste half the day traveling. One thing I miss is having a big whiteboard that everyone can gather around and draw on together - I haven't seen any effective electronic substitutes :(
- Many employees have realized that they can work effectively at a remote location - and are looking to move to areas with lower cost of living (eg lower cost of housing). And some employers are willing to consider it (although some want to reduce the wages in response...)
The Coronacast podcast recently asked listeners "What COVID practices will you continue, after the pandemic is under control?"
- One listener said: Not having children blow out candles on a cake, and then hand out pieces of cake to everyone. I can't believe that was ever acceptable...
Post by: evan_au on 07/12/2020 20:50:12
10 minutes: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-actually-stop-you-getting-covid/12957988
Post by: Glenballs on 07/12/2020 21:58:09
It depends what you mean by "soon".Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).
what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon
It will take months to vaccinate a large enough pool of people for it to make a difference.
My guess (and it's no more than that) is that we are about half way through and have 6 to 12 months to go.
as the vaccine rollout is from tomorrow , will life be back to normal and no facemasks and social distancing from february / march, spring next year as thats what we all hear
Post by: alancalverd on 07/12/2020 22:25:32
Vaccination will not treat existing infections, which will rise beyond Trump's wildest dreams in the next four weeks, from the current 2.5% of the UK population to well over 4% by early January, at which point the epidemic will not be containable by present restrictions. The return of students and schoolkids will precipitate a disaster not previously seen outside the USA.
Post by: Glenballs on 08/12/2020 15:26:05
No way.
Vaccination will not treat existing infections, which will rise beyond Trump's wildest dreams in the next four weeks, from the current 2.5% of the UK population to well over 4% by early January, at which point the epidemic will not be containable by present restrictions. The return of students and schoolkids will precipitate a disaster not previously seen outside the USA.
so are you saying just because the massive rollout of vaccines has begun today, things still wont be back to normal early next year. and when do you think i will get the vaccine im aged 30
Post by: alancalverd on 08/12/2020 16:51:16
Best thing is to rejoice in your privileged status whilst disposable old fogeys like me get vaccinated with some unproven witches' brew and sent out to deal with the great unwashed again.
Post by: Glenballs on 08/12/2020 23:46:44
Sadly, unless you are a front line healthcare worker or in some other essential industry, I think you will be in the lowest priority group as you fall into the cusp of least likely to be harmed by COVID (too young) and least likely to bring it home to your family (not a student or schoolkid).
Best thing is to rejoice in your privileged status whilst disposable old fogeys like me get vaccinated with some unproven witches' brew and sent out to deal with the great unwashed again.
So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing
Post by: set fair on 09/12/2020 00:56:21
[ everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing
Explain this to me, I don't understand. My granfather was ordered to climb out of a trench and walk slowly into a hail of machine gun fire. All we're being asked to do is wear a mask and keep our distance. I find it no more inconvenient than wearing a seat belt or a motorcycle helmet.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/12/2020 12:26:40
So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancingThose who are fed up with face masks and social distancing will eventually get sick, infect each other, and place a burden on the rest of us who pay taxes to keep idiots alive. If they reproduce faster than intelligent people, the UK will eventually become a permanently quarantined prison colony run by the worst of its inmates. It's happening in the USA already.
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/12/2020 12:36:27
I find it no more inconvenient than wearing a seat belt or a motorcycle helmet.We needed legislation to get people to do those.
"Common sense" seems quite rare.
Post by: Glenballs on 13/12/2020 21:47:01
So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancingThose who are fed up with face masks and social distancing will eventually get sick, infect each other, and place a burden on the rest of us who pay taxes to keep idiots alive. If they reproduce faster than intelligent people, the UK will eventually become a permanently quarantined prison colony run by the worst of its inmates. It's happening in the USA already.
so will covid go away next year and will we definitely be able to get rid of the face masks and social distancing
Post by: alancalverd on 14/12/2020 00:06:21
Western governments will continue to negotiate with the virus in the hope of being re-elected because they have allowed you to go on holiday and infect warmer nations, or kill your grandmother at Christmas.
Politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. Very few politicians are capable of making the right choice, and idiots will always vote for the unacceptable because it is palatable.
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/12/2020 13:33:22
In the UK we have a PM who doesn't face any election for 4 years or so.
He has an overwhelming majority.
He does not need to consider the chances of re-lection.
And yet neither of them has the sense to do the unpopular, but necessary, thing and actually slow the spread of the virus.
I presume that's not so much political ambition as just innate evil.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/12/2020 14:44:06
I presume that's not so much political ambition as just innate evil.That's a very fine line to draw. The veneer is so thin that politicians have to shave very carefully.
Post by: Glenballs on 14/12/2020 22:44:51
No.
Western governments will continue to negotiate with the virus in the hope of being re-elected because they have allowed you to go on holiday and infect warmer nations, or kill your grandmother at Christmas.
Politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. Very few politicians are capable of making the right choice, and idiots will always vote for the unacceptable because it is palatable.
i thought that no was very blunt, next year surely has to be better for everyone.i do think next year life will return to normal, no face masks or social distancing.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/12/2020 10:31:00
If everyone stays at home for a couple of weeks, the incidence of new cases will decrease to the point that vaccination and continued vigilance may reduce the risk to an acceptable level.
But the sheer idiocy shown by behavior in shops and Christmas markets, plus the embarrassing "leadership" from politicians putting schmaltz before public safety, means that we can expect an overwhelming surge in cases in January and inevitable disaster thereafter.
The virus does not recognise the special importance of Boris, Jesus or Hogmanay, but is happy to take advantage of human contact.
Post by: Bored chemist on 15/12/2020 11:26:11
next year surely has to be better for everyone."Next year" starts in about 2 weeks.
Given the partying over Xmas, it's not going to start well. There will probably be the biggest ever recorded spike in transmission.
After that it will probably settle down.
But it's going to be months before we are anything like "back to normal".
Post by: Glenballs on 25/12/2020 23:47:54
next year surely has to be better for everyone."Next year" starts in about 2 weeks.
Given the partying over Xmas, it's not going to start well. There will probably be the biggest ever recorded spike in transmission.
After that it will probably settle down.
But it's going to be months before we are anything like "back to normal".
Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancing
Post by: Kryptid on 26/12/2020 00:19:16
Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancing
It'll take time for the vaccine to get to everyone, and then more time after that for the vaccine to take full effect. Then there are people who will refuse to be vaccinated at all.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/12/2020 11:55:40
boris said spring life will be normal again....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.
Post by: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 17:46:42
boris said spring life will be normal again....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.
so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?
Post by: Kryptid on 26/12/2020 21:45:08
so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?
It's more like he's saying that we should take what BoJo says with a grain of salt. Feel free to be hopeful, just prepare yourself for disappointment in the case the pandemic isn't over as soon as you'd hope.
Post by: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 22:35:25
so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?
It's more like he's saying that we should take what BoJo says with a grain of salt. Feel free to be hopeful, just prepare yourself for disappointment in the case the pandemic isn't over as soon as you'd hope.
The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it
Post by: alancalverd on 26/12/2020 22:41:18
The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.
Choose your sources with care.
Post by: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 22:46:54
The hospitals are crammed with optimists.
The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.
Choose your sources with care.
So are you saying there lieing as that's giving people false hope, we know the Oxford vaccine is waiting to be approved within days, surely once that is out and people are getting vaccinated by the millions a day, restrictions will be lifted and life will finally resume normally
Post by: alancalverd on 26/12/2020 23:01:57
Post by: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 23:04:32
It is entirely possible to vaccinate the UK population within 2 weeks. It is also possible to organise a pissup in a brewery. But not under this government.
So should I just see what happens then
Post by: Colin2B on 26/12/2020 23:46:32
I think we should be positive, but realistic.so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?boris said spring life will be normal again....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.
The vaccination programme is a major undertaking and although it has started NHS vaccinations in England began on 8th December and in the 13 days to Sunday the 20th December 521,594 people received a first NHS vaccination. The 2nd will be 21 days after first and 7 days after that 90% of those vaccinated will have full immunity. So, people being vaccinated now won’t be immune until end of January.
It all depends how quickly the system can ramp up and it is a major exercise in training, distribution, admin etc so we’ll probably have a better idea of a realistic roll out by end of Jan.
Remember, this is a government that said a Brexit deal would be easypeasy!
Post by: Glenballs on 26/12/2020 23:57:21
I think we should be positive, but realistic.so are you saying people shouldnt be positive about the new year then?boris said spring life will be normal again....and he's never been wrong, has he? The man is a moron, as is anyone who believes a word he says.
The vaccination programme is a major undertaking and although it has started NHS vaccinations in England began on 8th December and in the 13 days to Sunday the 20th December 521,594 people received a first NHS vaccination. The 2nd will be 21 days after first and 7 days after that 90% of those vaccinated will have full immunity. So, people being vaccinated now won’t be immune until end of January.
It all depends how quickly the system can ramp up and it is a major exercise in training, distribution, admin etc so we’ll probably have a better idea of a realistic roll out by end of Jan.
Remember, this is a government that said a Brexit deal would be easypeasy!
All the papers are full of it saying the Oxford vaccine is out Monday and were 15 million jabs from freedom rishi sunak has said its true so what more evidence do you need
Post by: Colin2B on 27/12/2020 08:50:44
rishi sunak has said its true so what more evidence do you needI want to see what the actual performance is by mid January, then it might be possible to make a reasonable forecast of your question. We will certainly see easing of restrictions progressively, but you have come onto a science site asking for a scientific forecast rather than a political one. At the moment we are saying there isn’t enough evidence to be certain.
Remember, you don’t just need to vaccinate the highly vulnerable. As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.
Post by: evan_au on 27/12/2020 09:13:01
Quote from: Glenballs
the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within daysWhich Oxford vaccine?
1. The one where they give you two full doses (but in Phase 3 trials, it's only around 60% effective)?
2. Or the one where they give you a half dose, followed by a full dose? (...which is claimed to be 90% effective, but hasn't had a big enough Phase 3 trial to prove it.)
3. Or the one where the Oxford vaccine is paired with the Russian Sputnik vaccine? (The trials are just beginning, and won't have Phase 3 results for months...)
We have at least 3 trials underway, none of which shows better performance than the RNA vaccines at this point in time.
I have no doubt that the more temperature-stable Oxford vaccine will be necessary in countries without reliable electricity or transport infrastructure.
- On what evidence do you base your opinion that the Oxford vaccine will be better than the RNA vaccines in Western countries like the UK?
Post by: alancalverd on 27/12/2020 13:38:08
what more evidence do you needEvidence.
Post by: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 17:43:47
what more evidence do you needEvidence.
Mightn't it be best to wait a bit, until evidence of mass-vaccination results becomes available.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 27/12/2020 17:47:19
As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS [ Invalid Attachment ]
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020
The hospitals are crammed with optimists.Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.
Choose your sources with care.
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?
The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February. But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.
Post by: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 19:27:14
As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONSScreenshot_20201227_173034.jpg (60.99 kB . 570x962 - viewed 5369 times)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020The hospitals are crammed with optimists.Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.
Choose your sources with care.
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February. But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.
So are you saying it won't happen then
Post by: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 22:41:46
So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
Post by: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 22:46:56
I like wearing my face-mask. It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits. Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it. These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!
So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
What exactly is that supposed to mean
Post by: alancalverd on 27/12/2020 22:50:36
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONSNote "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.
Post by: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 23:01:08
Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONSNote "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.
So what are you saying I don't understand, I'm in a tier 4 area do you think we will move out of this tier as soon as a couple of weeks when the Oxford vaccine has rolled out to all the most vulnerable people
Post by: charles1948 on 27/12/2020 23:46:27
I like wearing my face-mask. It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits. Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it. These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!
So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
What exactly is that supposed to mean
Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously. We are all in it together.
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually. Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.
Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!
The thing is - don't panic!
Post by: Glenballs on 27/12/2020 23:54:43
I like wearing my face-mask. It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits. Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it. These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!
So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
What exactly is that supposed to mean
Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously. We are all in it together.
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually. Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.
Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!
The thing is - don't panic!
[/quote
All I basically want to know is once this Oxford vaccine is approved tomorrow or Tuesday and then they ramp up vaccinating people to the millions a day or week etc at the end of Jan early Feb. The government and all the papers have said there will be no lockdowns or restrictions. I know they all don't always speak the truth but for that news to be posted everywhere it must be true surel, they want to tell people this misery is all finally over which will be soon right. No more masks and social distancing we can shake hands, hug and get close to people exactly like life should be
Post by: Kryptid on 27/12/2020 23:56:19
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually
Why?
all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.
It's very relevant. We need to slow down the pandemic so that medical personnel are not overwhelmed.
Post by: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:07:42
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually
Why?all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.
It's very relevant. We need to slow down the pandemic so that medical personnel are not overwhelmed.
We all want our lives back to live normally
Post by: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:26:13
I like wearing my face-mask. It's made of white fabric, Which I wash every month under the tap. To keep it clean, and brush out all the dried spittle and grey bits. Also, it has the letters "KN-95" printed on it. These letters have faded after 6 months, but are still visible. They show that it's superior to the others!
So when I get on the bus, I wear my mask with pride!
What exactly is that supposed to mean
Please disregard it as a cheap shot at you for taking things too seriously. We are all in it together.
Personally I think that we'll all have to get the virus eventually. Then some of us will die from it, but the overwhelming majority won't, and all this faffing about with masks is irrelevant.
Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!
The thing is - don't panic!
Do you honestly think we will be out of these restrictions by end of Jan early Feb, or I suppose your gunna say depends how quickly they vaccinate people by what I've heard it's going to be millions a day / week which ain't going to take long
Post by: Glenballs on 28/12/2020 00:28:25
As has been pointed out the majority of people in hospital at the moment are 30-50 yr olds and if many of those are suffering longer term effects there is a big future impact on the working population and economy.Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONS
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland11december2020The hospitals are crammed with optimists.Hitler again Alan? What's the problem this time. Have you ever thought of other despots, we have a veritable plethora of debauched genocidal tyrants, have you ever thought of going east with a Pol pot, perhaps I can interest
The Daily Mail was the only UK newspaper that supported Hitler.
Choose your sources with care.
you in the big daddy of them all Stain, we have various South American nutters for your discernment, Amin perhaps, a certain nutty African flavour?The daily mail said tonight that the Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within days and they say restrictions will be lifted by end of February when the 15million vulnerable are vaccined that's that then isn't it15 million people, 30 million shots, even if it is the nicer to handle OxfordAstro 3 million a week would get you there by mid February. But that is 500,000 a day, even if the health are can pull it off, with Europe and the USA now wanting vaccine, this will strain the production.
I thought the Oxford vaccine is only 1 shot I've heard as the data is the best formula possible and that would make it so much quicker to get it into people's arms and away they go next one in
Post by: charles1948 on 28/12/2020 01:21:04
Post by: Petrochemicals on 28/12/2020 01:43:25
Nope moderna andJohnson and Johnson are the one shot, the clear leaders.
I thought the Oxford vaccine is only 1 shot I've heard as the data is the best formula possible and that would make it so much quicker to get it into people's arms and away they go next one in
By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!Could you point it out please again ColinD2 as all I can find are old statistics from 3 weeks ago from the ONSNote "per 100,000". There aren't as many over-85's as any other cohort.
So are you saying it won't happen thenBy mid February I am saying they will still not have protected the populace. 500k into 30m is not far in 2 weeks. I doubt they will have protected them by July.
Post by: charles1948 on 28/12/2020 02:21:27
Post by: Kryptid on 28/12/2020 03:14:23
We all want our lives back to live normally
That didn't address my post.
Do you find it difficult to reply to a particular post, because all the other posts get in the way?
The quote function is how to get around that problem.
Post by: Colin2B on 28/12/2020 08:14:22
New statements from oxford team appear to show they are going for option 2.Quote from: Glenballsthe Oxford vaccine is going to be approved within daysWhich Oxford vaccine?
2. Or the one where they give you a half dose, followed by a full dose? (...which is claimed to be 90% effective, but hasn't had a big enough Phase 3 trial to prove it.)
The government has ordered 100 million doses of the vaccine, with around 40 million expected to be available by the end of March. Assume phased rollout with final doses administered end April we should have 18m people protected by Oxford vaccine. Not sure what the details of other vaccines are, but unless the expected delivery of Oxford has changed there is a mismatch of publicity. See also:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/nhs-leaders-raise-concerns-pace-covid-vaccine-rollout
Post by: Bored chemist on 28/12/2020 13:14:55
We all want our lives back to live normallyI want to win the lottery, but it doesn't mean that I will.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/12/2020 23:54:50
By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!I can't translate this into Earth-language but it seems to suggest incomprehension of terrestrial mathematics.
There are about 1.5 million over-85s in the UK, despite the government's best efforts to kill them. So 140 per 100,000 gives maybe 2100 positive COVID admissions of over-85's in WE6/12. There are 17 million in the 45 - 64 age group so 10 per 100,000 gives you 1700 admissions in that cohort for the same week. It is true that the elderly are more likely to die, but that represents a saving to the economy. It's the chronically sick people of working age who are a burden, paying no tax but filling acute NHS beds and collecting all sorts of benefits.
The ONS graph is bizarre because the cohort sampling intervals are all different and the "normalisation" factor "per 100,000" is pretty meaningless in view of the steep decline in numbers in each real cohort from the age of 65 onward - https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age. ONS seems to have chosen the numbers to make a pretty picture that doesn't actually tell you anything.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/12/2020 00:45:44
On the graph, there are about 30 times more admissions for over 50s. For them to be a minority yadyyadyyada?By a factor of 30 is by the statistics for an under/over 45 split would make this at minimum the majority of under 50s. Unless anyone over 50 is dying and the under 50s are clogging up the hospital beds again. Ie 1 in 30 people is over 50, this isn't the 1800s Alan!I can't translate this into Earth-language but it seems to suggest incomprehension of terrestrial mathematics.
Post by: evan_au on 29/12/2020 08:10:09
Quote
Do you think that us clever humans will be wiped out by some stupid bit of RNA in a fragile protein coat which can be dissolved by washing our hands with soap!Maybe not "wiped out", but ebola and the 1918 Flu pandemic managed to kill about 30% of patients.
- That is still enough to decimate an economy and badly damage the society's morale.
- Smallpox was even worse in native populations with no immunity
Post by: alancalverd on 29/12/2020 10:47:21
On the graph, there are about 30 times more admissions for over 50s. For them to be a minority yadyyadyyada?No, 30 times more per 100,000. Read the words, as well as looking at the pictures.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/12/2020 12:09:00
Yes per 100K, RE. the yadiyadayada. The per 100k meaning at 30 times meaning there would have to be a 30 times greater populace under 50 for them to be considered a majority going by the per100k rate.On the graph, there are about 30 times more admissions for over 50s. For them to be a minority yadyyadyyada?No, 30 times more per 100,000. Read the words, as well as looking at the pictures.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/12/2020 12:53:09
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/12/2020 13:26:38
The graph you showed doesn't have an "over 50" line. What it does show, if you multiply it by the population in each of its bizarre cohorts, is that people of working age account for about half of the hospital admissionsIt's a close enough number to cause you trouble though? Plus I do not believe half hospital admissions are under 67, let alone under 50. The retirement age is increasing because a large part of the population is over 65 these days. As I said earlier maybe it's because the majority of fatalities are over which ever age threshold suits you.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/12/2020 13:38:47
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/12/2020 15:09:22
What you believe is of no interest to the NHS or the Treasury. Statistics do not trouble me - I just avoid becoming one.Anything to add about about hitler?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/12/2020 17:31:08
Post by: charles1948 on 29/12/2020 20:12:12
What you believe is of no interest to the NHS or the Treasury. Statistics do not trouble me - I just avoid becoming one.Anything to add about about hitler?
I see Godwin's Law has struck again!
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 08:18:49
I presume that's not so much political ambition as just innate evil.That's a very fine line to draw. The veneer is so thin that politicians have to shave very carefully.
The Oxford vaccine has been approved this morning, so my question to ask is how long till the pandemic is over
Post by: Colin2B on 30/12/2020 08:37:59
The Oxford vaccine has been approved this morning, so my question to ask is how long till the pandemic is overNot easy to estimate as we don’t have full information yet.
Some indication that there was not enough clear data to approve the half-dose, full-dose idea and tactics appear to have changed to giving the first dose to as many people as possible. At best we will get 70% protection after 2nd dose administered after 12 weeks. Given the new variant, I would say many months of misery still.
@alancalverd @Bored chemist have you seen any data on protection given by first full dose only?
I’m going to have to go back over the research reports as I can’t remember. Perhaps @chris knows
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 09:16:22
The Oxford vaccine has been approved this morning, so my question to ask is how long till the pandemic is overNot easy to estimate as we don’t have full information yet.
Some indication that there was not enough clear data to approve the half-dose, full-dose idea and tactics appear to have changed to giving the first dose to as many people as possible. At best we will get 70% protection after 2nd dose administered after 12 weeks. Given the new variant, I would say many months of misery still.
@alancalverd @Bored chemist have you seen any data on protection given by first full dose only?
I’m going to have to go back over the research reports as I can’t remember. Perhaps @chris knows
How long will the restrictions last then
Post by: Colin2B on 30/12/2020 11:20:37
How long will the restrictions last then
we don’t have full information yet
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 12:18:10
Not that "rational" has anything to do with it. My gloomy expectation is a general relaxation in March followed by a tsunami as the virus adapts to the low priority groups. But who puts evolution, experience and common sense before political opportunism and bravado?
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 13:00:02
No chance. Mid-summer is the best professional estimate for a rational lifting of restrictions.
Not that "rational" has anything to do with it. My gloomy expectation is a general relaxation in March followed by a tsunami as the virus adapts to the low priority groups. But who puts evolution, experience and common sense before political opportunism and bravado?
Matt Hancock has said the spring so it that right
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 13:00:45
How long will the restrictions last thenwe don’t have full information yet
Matt Hancock has said the spring
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/12/2020 13:29:51
Matt Hancock has said the spring so it that rightDoes he have a history of making good predictions/ decisions?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9029785/Matt-Hancocks-10-cringe-inducing-moments.html
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 13:39:07
Matt Hancock has said the spring so it that rightSee "political opportunism and bravado".
The first rule of politics is never make a promise you can't break. The second rule is that any failure is someone else's fault.
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 14:12:26
Matt Hancock has said the spring so it that rightDoes he have a history of making good predictions/ decisions?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9029785/Matt-Hancocks-10-cringe-inducing-moments.html
But they have no excuse now they have all the vaccine available millions to do the whole population
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 14:13:20
Matt Hancock has said the spring so it that rightSee "political opportunism and bravado".
The first rule of politics is never make a promise you can't break. The second rule is that any failure is someone else's fault.
[/quote
They have no excuse now the millions of vaccine available to get the whole population done
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/12/2020 14:22:25
But they have no excuseWatch this space...
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 21:09:11
But they have no excuseWatch this space...
What do you mean by that
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 22:51:29
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 22:59:06
When a person is lying, their blink rate decreases. Matt Hancock has the lowest blink rate of anyone I've seen on television.
So are you saying they won't vaccinate quickly enough to end the pandemic, I saw the bbc news conference this evening and they were very clear that this pandemic will be over shortly I believe them
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 23:21:40
Believing politicians is a very silly thing to do. To misquote "Old Man River" (Kern/Hammerstein, 1927) "He must say sumthin' but don't know nuthin' ". At least Blow Job was honest in ducking the question on TV tonight.
Anyway a pandemic is an epidemic disease with worldwide occurrence. Vaccinating the UK population won't prevent others getting it, and only quarantine for incomers will prevent it recurring in the UK.
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 23:27:04
Donald Trump also has a pathological blink rate.
Believing politicians is a very silly thing to do. To misquote "Old Man River" (Kern/Hammerstein, 1927) "He must say sumthin' but don't know nuthin' ". At least Blow Job was honest in ducking the question on TV tonight.
Anyway a pandemic is an epidemic disease with worldwide occurrence. Vaccinating the UK population won't prevent others getting it, and only quarantine for incomers will prevent it recurring in the UK.
So are you saying pubs etc won't be open in February and restrictions lifted then as they were very clear at the press conference that was happening
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 23:32:07
Post by: alancalverd on 30/12/2020 23:34:50
@alancalverd @Bored chemist have you seen any data on protection given by first full dose only?About 30% according to a TV interview tonight.
But that was only the opinion of the professorial head of the Oxford vaccine lab, not an expert like Matt Hancock (PPE, Oxford; Economics, Cambridge).
Post by: Glenballs on 30/12/2020 23:40:00
@alancalverd @Bored chemist have you seen any data on protection given by first full dose only?About 30% according to a TV interview tonight.
But that was only the opinion of the professorial head of the Oxford vaccine lab, not an expert like Matt Hancock (PPE, Oxford; Economics, Cambridge).
[/quote
When is do you think they will have vaccinated all the vulnerable people by end of January especially as they only need to give them 1 dose, that will surely speed the process up so quickly
Post by: Kryptid on 31/12/2020 00:09:49
When is do you think they will have vaccinated all the vulnerable people by end of January especially as they only need to give them 1 dose, that will surely speed the process up so quickly
That almost certainly will not be finished by the end of January. At least not in the United States (sorry, I've been keeping a better track of that than the UK because I live here). So far as I've read, phase 1a (vaccinating frontline medical workers plus assisted care workers and residents) will mostly be finished by January, but phase 1b (vaccinating those who work in high-risk and high-importance fields like the post office and manufacturing) will still be well underway. Phase 1c, which includes teachers and IT, will probably start in February. This all assumes there aren't any issues that slow the process down. I've seen estimates that the general population will have the vaccine available some time between March and June.
Post by: Glenballs on 31/12/2020 00:22:12
When is do you think they will have vaccinated all the vulnerable people by end of January especially as they only need to give them 1 dose, that will surely speed the process up so quickly
That almost certainly will not be finished by the end of January. At least not in the United States (sorry, I've been keeping a better track of that than the UK because I live here). So far as I've read, phase 1a (vaccinating frontline medical workers plus assisted care workers and residents) will mostly be finished by January, but phase 1b (vaccinating those who work in high-risk and high-importance fields like the post office and manufacturing) will still be well underway. Phase 1c, which includes teachers and IT, will probably start in February. This all assumes there aren't any issues that slow the process down. I've seen estimates that the general population will have the vaccine available some time between March and June.
They said they will vaccinate the most vulnerable first which I think they said is 15 million people then they will lift the restrictions so do you think that will be done by end of January given what you just told me
Post by: Colin2B on 31/12/2020 08:46:02
That wouldn’t give me confidence to go out without mask or social distancing.@alancalverd @Bored chemist have you seen any data on protection given by first full dose only?About 30% according to a TV interview tonight.
But that was only the opinion of the professorial head of the Oxford vaccine lab, not an expert like Matt Hancock (PPE, Oxford; Economics, Cambridge).I don’t think the OP is interested in scientific opinion.
Gove said after Christmas so let’s go with that
Post by: Bored chemist on 31/12/2020 10:05:36
Gove said after ChristmasWhich year?
Post by: alancalverd on 31/12/2020 11:30:50
The advantage of the OAZ vaccine is less critical storage requirements, but it needs two shots 3 months apart to reach its full effectiveness a month later, according to Prof Pollard. But who cares what a scientist says? Especially the one who invented it. We must open the pubs and pack the cinemas ASAP, because your vote counts.
Post by: Kryptid on 31/12/2020 16:48:46
They said they will vaccinate the most vulnerable first which I think they said is 15 million people then they will lift the restrictions
Do you have a source?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 31/12/2020 17:55:28
Post by: charles1948 on 31/12/2020 19:30:52
The masks provide valuable psychological benefits to some of us. In two respects:
1. We're relieved of having to keep curving our lips into an artificial smile at people we couldn't care less about;
2. We're relieved of the fear that people will look critically at our decayed and missing teeth
Thus the masks may possess therapeutic value beyond their alleged anti-viral properties.
Does anyone else feel the same?
Post by: Colin2B on 01/01/2021 07:20:35
Some people may like wearing face-masks, and hope they become a societal norm. Even in the absence of CV-19.In the far east they were very common even before CV19. They suffered from Sars1 and bird flu scares, but a big factor appears to be air pollution which in uk we don’t have at those levels. Even so I’m sure mask wearing will become more common.
And, as you say, some people may like wearing masks. I was always a great fan of the lone ranger and could never understand why superman got away with just taking off his glasses and changing his underpants.
Post by: Glenballs on 02/01/2021 23:49:47
Some people may like wearing face-masks, and hope they become a societal norm. Even in the absence of CV-19.
The masks provide valuable psychological benefits to some of us. In two respects:
1. We're relieved of having to keep curving our lips into an artificial smile at people we couldn't care less about;
2. We're relieved of the fear that people will look critically at our decayed and missing teeth
Thus the masks may possess therapeutic value beyond their alleged anti-viral properties.
Does anyone else feel the same?
When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drink
Post by: Kryptid on 03/01/2021 00:04:08
The masks provide valuable psychological benefits to some of us. In two respects:
Well, it has given me an excuse to be more lazy about shaving...
Post by: Glenballs on 03/01/2021 00:14:00
The masks provide valuable psychological benefits to some of us. In two respects:
Well, it has given me an excuse to be more lazy about shaving...
When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drink
Post by: alancalverd on 03/01/2021 00:14:36
When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drinkIn time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.
Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.
Post by: Glenballs on 03/01/2021 00:20:18
When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drinkIn time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.
Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.
Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closed
Post by: alancalverd on 03/01/2021 00:54:54
Meanwhile the worldbeating vaccine program seems to be going in the same direction as the worldbeating track and trace program, with volunteers having to undergo Equality and Diversity and Fire Safety training before being allowed to stick a needle into your arm. I've just done the statutory E&D course which turned out to be 100% irrelevant to the job that required it. But it does mean that the person who saves your life won't irreparably compromise your psychological wellbeing by calling you "mate" or "love" as
* late edit - just reviewed my course notes. Nor will they assume that you are righthanded or even that you possess a left arm. And they will warn you if the vaccine contains pig- or cow-derived products or was invented by an atheist.
Post by: evan_au on 03/01/2021 08:08:18
Quote from: alancalverd
...why the virus... becomes virulent after 10 pm.It's because as the evening goes on, the voices become louder, and any social distancing evaporates...
Even discounting this effect:
- If people stay for 6 hours instead of 1 hour, their exposure is 6 times higher (assuming the number of people is capped)
- If people stay for 6 hours instead of 1 hour, their exposure is 36 times higher (assuming the number of people is not capped)
I visited an art gallery today. After signing in, a sign at the door read "Please limit your visit to 30 minutes" - admittedly, it was a pretty small art gallery, and numbers were capped, according to another sign at the door...
Post by: Colin2B on 03/01/2021 17:34:47
Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closedWhere do you get end Jan from?
The estimates are 22m on the priority list (ONS and Head of NHS)
Although there is a commitment to 2m vaccinations a week that level of vaccine availability won’t be until 2nd week in Jan.
Today Boris was reported from the Andrew Marr show:
“Mr Johnson said the government was "entirely reconciled to doing what it takes to get the virus down," and warned of a "tough period ahead".
He said increasing vaccination would provide a way out of restrictions and that he hoped "tens of millions" would be vaccinated in the next three months.”
That lines up with Sir Simon Stevens, head of NHS England, saying 22 million people should be vaccinated by the spring (late April), that is everyone aged 50 and over and all vulnerable people in the UK. Even limiting vaccine to 1st dose will take at least 10 weeks (@ 2m/week) = end March.
Age 50 is an important target as it is likely to be the median for hospital admissions and clearly some protection, even the limited single dose, should reduce the load on the health service, which is the main objective of this rollout.
The decision to lift restrictions will be a political one based on a reduction of R below 1, reduction in hospital admissions, and reduction in death rate.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 04/01/2021 22:24:25
Scratch that. Tier 5 for us all from Wednesday midnight plus,When do you think all the shops like pubs etc in tier 4 will be back open fully even if its that you have to have a meal with a drinkIn time for Valentine's Day. Then closed again a week later as people start dying in the street because the hospitals are full. I had a very gloomy chat today with a surgeon and a GP who have seen every such prediction come true.
Hopefully our resident virologist will tell us why the virus doesn't infect you if you eat while inhaling it, and only becomes virulent after 10 pm.
Surely as soon as the end of January when all the vulnerable and prioritised people have had the vaccine then they will open like most other shops that are currently closed
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18973486.sage-expert-warns-covid-vaccinations-unlikely-bring-herd-immunity-summer/
Post by: alancalverd on 04/01/2021 22:49:08
Post by: Glenballs on 05/01/2021 00:18:44
Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted
Post by: Colin2B on 05/01/2021 07:01:13
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be liftedThat’s not what he said.
Any relaxing of restrictions will, as we have said before, be a political decision. We hope any decision will take full account of the scientific advice, but past performance does not indicate that will necessarily happen.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/01/2021 12:20:13
Quote
was considered an exceptional leader by many biographers and was noted for his abilities as a military diplomat and in dealing with the press.
Before the invasion of Kuwait he was asked what to say in a press release, and when to release it. He said "When it's over, tell them who won".
Pity he isn't around anymore.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 05/01/2021 14:16:18
You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted
Post by: Glenballs on 05/01/2021 19:50:51
You are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted
Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen
Post by: Kryptid on 05/01/2021 20:03:56
will this happen
I know you want answers, but all we can tell you is that we don't know yet. A lot can change between now and then.
Post by: Glenballs on 05/01/2021 20:16:32
will this happen
I know you want answers, but all we can tell you is that we don't know yet. A lot can change between now and then.
They have already done 1.3 million so they are well on the way, what could possibly go that wrong to stop them getting there, its going to happen
Post by: Petrochemicals on 05/01/2021 20:55:10
The statement will read something likeYou are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted
Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen
"we have vaccinated 7.5 million most vunerable peopl. They will receive their 2nd dose by May. Another 7. 5 million semi vunerable will receive their first dose by june. Now time for lockdown 4.
Post by: Glenballs on 05/01/2021 21:31:09
The statement will read something likeYou are not reading this right at all, you are confusing politics and science. Politicians make statements that leave themselves a backdoor, rarely answer the question and apportion blame elsewhere. The reason cases are going up is people, if they would just dissappear Boris would rule the country far more successfully.Boris Johnson's televison broadcast contained several grains of truth and common sense. I suspect a communist plot.
So now were in lockdown, when do you think we will be out of it, will it be February like boris said and then will all restrictions be lifted
Boris said all vulnerable people will be vaccinated by mid February and then lift restrictions will this happen
"we have vaccinated 7.5 million most vunerable peopl. They will receive their 2nd dose by May. Another 7. 5 million semi vunerable will receive their first dose by june. Now time for lockdown 4.
how do you know that, i 100% guarantee that they will hit this with days to spare
Post by: alancalverd on 06/01/2021 00:10:28
With about 1,300,000 known active carriers (and still rising) in the community, we can reasonably expect to see perhaps 4% of the population infected by the end of February. The next tranche of vaccinees will be in the over 60 group, who again are not significant sources of infection since they are less likely to travel or work even when restrictions are lifted. If you think about it, there are now 1,000,000 more new pensioners in the UK than there were when the epidemic began, and
2,000,000 vaccine doses will be "wasted" each year because us old buggers die anyway! So you need to deliver 4,000,000 doses in the first year to achieve very little economic impact, whilst the working population is being decimated by acute and chronic illness.
Current order is for up to 40,000,000 doses to be delivered by the end of March. If this target is reached, I will be able to go back to work in reasonable safety but I can't insist that any of my contractors (who are all under 60) should get back on the road. The question is whether I will have any contractors available before August who are neither infected nor likely to become ill.
Post by: Ophiolite on 06/01/2021 00:48:18
Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancingI have lost count of the number of times you have asked the same basic question and the number of times you haven't liked the answers, so you've come back and asked again, hoping for a different answer. Here's the news: you can't get the answer you want.
Some probabilities: the virus will be with us indefinitely; the virus will periodically mutate significantly, requiring modified vaccines; the efficiacy of the vaccine (duration and effectiveness) may well be less than we hope for; local, even regional, lockdowns will be necessary to control outbreaks.
Because of this mask wearing and social distancing, albeit it on a slightly laxer scale, will become the new normal. Get used to it.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 06/01/2021 13:14:51
They themselves elves are admitting it will not be 2 shots each, offering only 50% protection. Its all down hill from there.
how do you know that, i 100% guarantee that they will hit this with days to spare
Post by: vhfpmr on 06/01/2021 14:03:40
This will be an interesting graph to follow over the next few weeks:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cumulative-covid-vaccinations?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..latest&country=GBR~DEU~ITA~CHN~ISR~USA®ion=World
Post by: alancalverd on 06/01/2021 14:29:57
The army, pharmacists and GPs can all do what they are told, but somebody has to tell them.
Post by: Glenballs on 06/01/2021 16:22:57
Once this Oxford vaccine comes out next week and then blitzes the nation, can we then say the pandemic will be over once and for all, even boris said spring life will be normal again, and then no more face coverings and social distancingI have lost count of the number of times you have asked the same basic question and the number of times you haven't liked the answers, so you've come back and asked again, hoping for a different answer. Here's the news: you can't get the answer you want.
Some probabilities: the virus will be with us indefinitely; the virus will periodically mutate significantly, requiring modified vaccines; the efficiacy of the vaccine (duration and effectiveness) may well be less than we hope for; local, even regional, lockdowns will be necessary to control outbreaks.
Because of this mask wearing and social distancing, albeit it on a slightly laxer scale, will become the new normal. Get used to it.
Boris Johnson and matt Hancock in the house of commons have reiterated that there will be the most vulnerable all vaccinated by mid February in the top 4 most vulnerable people groups, do you think its true
Post by: alancalverd on 06/01/2021 17:42:31
Vaccinating the most vulnerable will reduce the headline daily death rate 3 months later, but will have negligible effect on the daily infection rate, which depends on the social mobility of carriers, nor on hospital admissions, longterm disability rates, or The Blessed Economy. These can only be improved by maintaining rigid quarantine until the entire population is vaccinated.
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/01/2021 19:32:29
Boris Johnson and matt Hancock in the house of commons have reiterated that there will be the most vulnerable all vaccinated by mid February in the top 4 most vulnerable people groups, do you think its trueThe vaccination consists of two injections, 12 weeks apart- about 3 months.
They are starting in January.
What's the earliest they can possibly hope to finish?
(This isn't rocket science.)
On a side note, Boris and Hancock tell lots of other lies.
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/01/2021 19:33:46
syringe in handWhat size?
Post by: Kryptid on 06/01/2021 22:07:58
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 00:35:47
I don't know how things are going in the UK right now, but phase 1b in my state is apparently expected to start in February (which would probably make full immunity for most of that group be achieved in March or April). February is way too early, at least here, for everything to return to normal.
[/quote
I can see them easily vaccinating 13 million people way before mid February, I think it will be done by the end of this month. They have got everything in motion and are getting everyone involved In getting it done at lighting speed, at the press conference tomorrow I reckon they will say they have vaccinated 5 million people now so they are well on the way to completion
Post by: Petrochemicals on 07/01/2021 02:40:17
I don't know how things are going in the UK right now, but phase 1b in my state is apparently expected to start in February (which would probably make full immunity for most of that group be achieved in March or April). February is way too early, at least here, for everything to return to normal.
[/quote
I can see them easily vaccinating 13 million people way before mid February, I think it will be done by the end of this month. They have got everything in motion and are getting everyone involved In getting it done at lighting speed, at the press conference tomorrow I reckon they will say they have vaccinated 5 million people now so they are well on the way to completion
Are you Dominic Cummings? Despite them admitting that at best it will be 1 dose only each AND that that had had only 50 percent protection during trials. It is not gonna happen.
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 08:27:30
I don't know how things are going in the UK right now, but phase 1b in my state is apparently expected to start in February (which would probably make full immunity for most of that group be achieved in March or April). February is way too early, at least here, for everything to return to normal.
[/quote
I can see them easily vaccinating 13 million people way before mid February, I think it will be done by the end of this month. They have got everything in motion and are getting everyone involved In getting it done at lighting speed, at the press conference tomorrow I reckon they will say they have vaccinated 5 million people now so they are well on the way to completion
Are you Dominic Cummings? Despite them admitting that at best it will be 1 dose only each AND that that had had only 50 percent protection during trials. It is not gonna happen.
Explain to me why you think it's not going to happen, they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions so I don't see what's stopping them smashing that target way before mid February
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 10:03:15
Explain to me why you think it's not going to happen,What?
Again?
OK, but please try to pay attention this time.
The vaccination requires two injections 12 weeks apart.
There are not 12 weeks between now and February.
It is therefore impossible to vaccinate people before February.
The fact that Boris and co have lied about it doesn't change the nature of time.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/01/2021 10:55:50
they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
Post by: vhfpmr on 07/01/2021 15:54:41
A good point. We don't know what size starting blocks will be required, either.syringe in handWhat size?
Post by: vhfpmr on 07/01/2021 16:00:57
I don't know how things are going in the UK right nowWe've got South African Covid here in Essex now, and they aren't even sure the vaccine's effective against it. If they don't get their finger, out the virus will be several mutations further on before they've finished vaccinating for the first one.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 07/01/2021 16:09:43
Explain to me why you think it's not going to happen, they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions so I don't see what's stopping them smashing that target way before mid Februarywww.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55576788
One month in. Under 2 million vaccinated. One month to go.
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 17:58:56
they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
Post by: Petrochemicals on 07/01/2021 18:01:12
Do remember to check in in mid Feb.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 18:04:55
Do remember to check in in mid Feb.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
I'd even put money on it, I'd win myself a fortune. With every angle and all the stuff they have got in place, they wouldn't do all that thinking there going to fail would they, there expanding absolutely everything everywhere. I think they will get this done in the blink of an eye, 13 million sounds alot but it isn't really
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 18:25:50
Twelve weeks is still longer than 5.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 18:54:54
Twelve weeks is still longer than 5.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
I'm not talking about the 2 jabs, I'm talking about them giving 1 vaccine to each 13 million people before mid February. They aren't doing 2 because it's quicker to give 1 out to many millions of people so much faster that's why they are doing it
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 18:58:07
So, you are not actually talking about the vaccination.Twelve weeks is still longer than 5.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
I'm not talking about the 2 jabs, I'm talking about them giving 1 vaccine to each 13 million people before mid February. They aren't doing 2 because it's quicker to give 1 out to many millions of people so much faster that's why they are doing it
This government essentially has failed to do anything right since it was elected.
Why do you imagine that this, enormously complex, project will be the one they get right?
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 19:06:09
So, you are not actually talking about the vaccination.Twelve weeks is still longer than 5.they are getting millions of doses each week and vaccinating millions
There is a difference between politics, where all numbers are equal if you want them to be, and real life, where they aren't.
I have just seen the news conference with boris johnson, Simon Stevens and the head of the army involved with vaccinating. I now I'm even more certain that they will have vaccinated 13 million by mid February and even the prime minister said they will work 7 days a week and work flat out till they get the job done. So that's the end of the matter as far as I'm concerned, they have even got 7 massive vaccination hubs doing the jabs nothing will go wrong it's bullet proof now. Set on stone
I'm not talking about the 2 jabs, I'm talking about them giving 1 vaccine to each 13 million people before mid February. They aren't doing 2 because it's quicker to give 1 out to many millions of people so much faster that's why they are doing it
This government essentially has failed to do anything right since it was elected.
Why do you imagine that this, enormously complex, project will be the one they get right?
I just know that they are definitely gonna smash this target they only have to do another 11.5 million in 39 days that's not alot really. Its going to be done in record time I think especially with the army involved aswell. How can you not be confident that it's going to happen they have got everything in place they need to, to make sure it's 100% happens I'm not doubting them at all now
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 19:25:04
I just knowNo. You just THINK...
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 19:30:53
I just knowNo. You just THINK...
[/quote
Why are do you think that they won't, I'm trying to see what could possibly stop them doing it and I can't see it unless I'm missing something. Here's how I see it. They have the vaccine in the hundreds of thousands soon to be millions a week, they have all the manpower possible like army, GPS, football stadia, massive hubs, St John's ambulance, volunteers, people coming out of retirement. If that doesn't tell you that it will be mission accomplished nothing will
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 19:34:41
they have got everything in place they needThe ONLY thing they need is a competent government; but they don't have that.
It's possible that handing the job to the army might get it done but there's still no guarantee.
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 19:37:27
they have got everything in place they needThe ONLY thing they need is a competent government; but they don't have that.
It's possible that handing the job to the army might get it done but there's still no guarantee.
What percentage do you think they will do it then
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 20:32:45
they have got everything in place they needThe ONLY thing they need is a competent government; but they don't have that.
It's possible that handing the job to the army might get it done but there's still no guarantee.
so what is your gut feeling that they will do it absolutely? or do you still have your doubts?
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 20:37:25
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 20:38:17
One of the biggest problems they face is simple; not everyone wants it.
they will still get to that target i guarantee it
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 20:40:54
i guarantee itNo, you don't.
You are not in any position to offer any guarantee.
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 20:46:36
i guarantee itNo, you don't.
You are not in any position to offer any guarantee.
i know then they will hit it but what ive heard and seen and all the prepiration in place
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/01/2021 23:15:48
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 23:23:39
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/07/hancock-hails-oxford-covid-vaccine-london-surgery-yet-receive-any-doses?fbclid=IwAR1LD1MzMJ4lhI95b3ZvL8fv46nRJl3pwmKttCQZlZvni63utJ1KzDDtlLo
I will tell you why that happened because the vaccine has only just started to be rolled out, but boris johnson and Simon Stevens said today there will be lumps and bumps to begin with but then it will flatten and they will blitz the vaccine all over the country to the vulnerable like no tomorrow, it won't be long before they've hit 5 million, then 7.5 million, then 10 million and then the big one 13 million and boris even said they might be able to do even more than that after aswell
Post by: Kryptid on 07/01/2021 23:26:00
Post by: alancalverd on 07/01/2021 23:31:45
I think we have a politician in our midst.
Post by: Glenballs on 07/01/2021 23:34:01
He is of course absolutely right. 13 > 10 > 7.5 > 5 is undeniable, and "it won't be long" is meaningless.
I think we have a politician in our midst.
Once all the sites they have got in place start vaccinating, there won't be any stopping them and with the army joining aswell they certainly know how to get the job done
Post by: alancalverd on 08/01/2021 00:07:49
Problem is that there is no evidence of the will and competence required to do the job properly, and every likelihood that the Idiots in Charge will relax quarantine rules as soon as the first couple of priority groups have received their first shot, with the inevitable consequence of a continuing rise in infections and more money down the drain.
Post by: Bored chemist on 08/01/2021 08:40:31
And what about the chances of the remaining 11.5 million most vulnerable people being vaccinated before mid February, can you explain pleaseI think he already explained:
Problem is that there is no evidence of the will and competence required to do the job properly,
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2021 12:28:37
I think my epitaph will be "I told you so".