Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Cells, Microbes & Viruses => Topic started by: diverjohn on 04/06/2020 08:35:02
-
In my effort to better understand the current pandemic I read the Wikipedia article on the 1918 flu pandemic and was surprised to see the number of deaths at between 17 and 50 million, possibly as high as 100 million.
Why such uncertainty? I can accept a number such as 25 +/- 5 million but a number between 17 and 50 seems strange. I understand many countries kept reported numbers low to prevent panic, and many deaths were incorrectly diagnosed.
Any thoughts or explanations?
-
I think the main reason was World War 1.
Everyone agrees that WW1 was a terrible bloodbath, with shelling, trench fighting, mud, malnutrition and poison gas.
- The Menin Gate lists the names of 54,000 soldiers from the British Empire whose bodies were never found
In a battlefield, there is no close analysis of cause of death
- Due to wartime censorship, deaths in the battlefield and on the home front were all suppressed, making it hard to get accurate statistics
- Recent estimates have suggested that the influenza pandemic killed more people than all the bullets, bombs and poison gas.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menin_Gate
-
A lot of the people who died did so in countries where recording detailed cause of death isn't a high priority.
-
Unless the victim's head is clearly separated from the body, "cause of death" is a clinical opinion influenced by all sorts of things, whereas "death" is a fairly certain fact. Influenza produces some fairly characteristic symptoms but the cause of death of a flu patient may be recorded as cardiac or respiratory failure, or secondary disease such as pneumonia.
The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.
-
The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.
Yeah.
Great idea.
Blame the tail end of the war's deaths on flu.
It's a great idea, but, what about the people who are dying because they are too scared to go to hospital- because they don't want to catch covid?
What about the effect of poverty and stress induced by layoffs?
The only valid statistic indicative of a flu epidemic is the difference between actual and expected deaths in a given period.
Or you could do what our beloved govt has totally failed to do, and test people.
-
Or you could do what our beloved govt has totally failed to do, and test people.
That can't be done retrospectively to evaluate Spanish Flu, nor is it of much statistical value right now where the weekly death rate has been exceptionally high since February and may well decrease to near normal before we have anything approaching representative or even credible testing.
And even if your corpse tests positive for COVID, the obvious cause of death may well be "hit by bus". Remember that those most susceptible tend to have "other health conditions". It's a good example of where the fine detail is much less revealing than the coarse statistics.
-
The any pandemic is liable of more death in world and currently Corona pandemic is speeding around the world. Many people and economic are affected from this. So it should be alert of all with getting safety and care.