Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Physiology & Medicine => COVID-19 => Topic started by: set fair on 21/03/2020 00:47:04
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This headline from the Independent 'We should start thinking about the next one': Coronavirus is just the first of many pandemics to come, environmentalists warn
Well it seem blindingly obvious what the next epidemic will be, unless the WHO get their act together. And it will kill more people than the corona virus in some countries such as the Phillipines. It will be cholera, typhoid and dysentery due to countries not being able to bury / cremate their dead, from the coronavirus, quickly and safely enough. A tragedy which doesn't have to happen.
Am I mad thinking this is almost inevitable unless urgent action is taken? Anyone here have access to the right people to pass these fears onto?
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Well it seem blindingly obvious what the next epidemic will be, unless the WHO get their act together. And it will kill more people than the corona virus in some countries such as the Phillipines. It will be cholera, typhoid and dysentery
Those diseases can not possibly be the next epidemic, because they are already endemic.
Am I mad thinking this is almost inevitable unless urgent action is taken?
People are quite good at burying/ cremating corpses.
We have had some practice.
What "urgent action" do you have in mind?
The current restrictions on travel will free up enough diesel oil to fuel the disposal of bodies if needed.
You might think that's insensitive, but, once the bodies start to stink, people will get pragmatic about it.
Poverty, caused by economic disruption will probably take a higher toll than cholera etc.
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countries not being able to bury / cremate their dead
In times of warfare and epidemics, mass graves are the most practical solution.
- unless you are willing to let the vultures, hyenas, crows, rats, ants, and maggots take care of it
unless the WHO get their act together
The WHO is a coordinating body.
The people who have to do the work are:
- The military: They are always on the lookout for new biological weapons, and training for protection against biological/chemical and nuclear weapons. But they are unlikely to do anything, because it will reveal their capabilities.
- University researchers: These are always on the lookout for new and novel diseases that they can experiment on. In fact, several university groups had developed trial vaccines against ebola over a period of 10 years. But they weren't deployed until recently ebola crossed international borders, and some of these trial vaccines were pressed into immediate manufacture and deployment. The 10 year lead time would do nothing to help the current outbreak, which has spread around the world in 5 months.
- Big Pharmaceutical companies; They have invested years of development and billions of dollars in previous new-disease vaccine developments, only to have the disease burn itself out, after infecting the exposed population (herd immunity). Even then, they sell 1 dose per person, not thousands of doses per person for chronic conditions. Having been burnt in the past, Big Pharma is unwilling to invest in a new vaccine until the disease has been shown to (a) linger in the population for >10 years (b) produce long-lasting disease. I understand that trial Zika vaccines are sitting on the shelf, but if Zika is shown to produce lifetime impact on brain development, that may be a trigger to mandate Zika vaccination (initially, for women who may be wanting to get pregnant).
- Pharmaceutical Archaeologists: These researchers dig through the archives of old medicines to find some that passed the safety tests (and maybe the effectiveness tests) for some other condition, but appear to be effective against the new pathogen. They probably bring significant side effects (eg if the original application was for reducing high blood pressure, it will probably make most of the population faint...)
- Philanthropists: These people are willing to invest millions of dollars in vaccines that will never make them any money. The Bill & Melinda Gates foundation is an example. Their investment in RNA Vaccine researchers is one route to faster vaccine development for niche diseases (or sudden pandemics).
- Desperate front-line physicians: Faced with patients who are dying, physicians might try some medications on a whim, on the basis that "it probably won't kill them, but it might reduce the symptoms...".
- Charlatans and Snake Oil Salesmen: These people will sell whatever tonic they have in their bottom drawer for whatever disease ails you, with no evidence of effectiveness or safety.
So really, what we need is an accelerated safety and approval process that will be able to rapidly test effectiveness and safety of a new vaccine or therapy, at a cost much less than billions of dollars.
- By rapid, we are talking approval in under a year (and preferably under 6 months to get into bulk manufacture!!)
- This comes down to a national approval process which is able to weigh benefits against risk
- To allow use of helpful therapies, while keeping out the charlatans
- In any case, those most in need will be third-world countries with very few intensive-care beds. This is where a new vaccine will have the greatest benefit (even if there are side-effects). That will probably be the basis for approving a vaccine for more cautious "western" countries.
The other area where UN can help is in stamping out the illegal trade of endangered animals. This practise is rife in China (promoted by the charlatans and snake-oil salesmen), and probably contributed to this animal disease jumping into humans last November.
- This relies on cooperation of national governments; China (and several other eastern countries) just ignore this trade, and it continues uncontrolled.
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In times of warfare and epidemics, mass graves are the most practical solution.
I see that a mass grave has been dug in New York, for those who are dying of coronavirus, and have no relatives or funeral parlour able to take care of burial in a traditional cemetary.
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The usual UK death rate is about 2500 per day. A temporary increase of 50% would be no big deal if graveyards and crematoria were working normally. The problem is, of course, that they aren't fully staffed at present. At some point there will (a) be enough immune survivors to restore normal service or (b) the lockdown will have reduced the infection rate to the point that it dwindles or (c) all those who cannot survive infection will be dead or (d) we will all be dead anyway - unlikely.
Among the possible scenarios it is conceivable that burial will become unfeasible and we will have to resort to industrialised mass cremation. Memories of the burning of over 400,000 animals in 6 months during the foot and mouth epidemic of 1967 are unpleasant but it can be done.
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- Big Pharmaceutical companies; They have invested years of development and billions of dollars in previous new-disease vaccine developments, only to have the disease burn itself out, after infecting the exposed population (herd immunity). Even then, they sell 1 dose per person, not thousands of doses per person for chronic conditions. Having been burnt in the past, Big Pharma is unwilling to invest in a new vaccine until the disease has been shown to (a) linger in the population for >10 years (b) produce long-lasting disease. I understand that trial Zika vaccines are sitting on the shelf, but if Zika is shown to produce lifetime impact on brain development, that may be a trigger to mandate Zika vaccination (initially, for women who may be wanting to get pregnant).
I'm sorry but I think this is factually wrong. Big P spent billions on trying to develop vaccines for Sars, Mers, Zika and Ebola, but it wasn't their money, it was government money.
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Memories of the burning of over 400,000 animals in 6 months during the foot and mouth epidemic of 1967 are unpleasant but it can be done.
I hope people won't be offended by my mentioning it in this context. I recognise it's a bit off topic.
From time to time I hear idiots seeking to deny the holocaust in Nazi Germany. They say it would have been impossible to cremate the six million bodies.
The fact that we could, without great difficulty , cremate 400,000 rather bigger bodies in a matter of months shows that, notwithstanding the denialists' lies, it is sadly all too possible.
OK that's the end of the digression; it's just that I feel that , when the issue arises, we should point out that liars are liars.
We now return you to our usual programme...
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The usual UK death rate is about 2500 per day. A temporary increase of 50% would be no big deal if graveyards and crematoria were working normally.
That depends on the time scale.
One day of a 50% hike in deaths is trivial.
A week is troublesome.
A month might really have an effect.
We don't know how long this is going to last.
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The usual UK death rate is about 2500 per day.
Is that a typo, I believe it's 1,500 per day.
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The usual UK death rate is about 2500 per day.
Is that a typo, I believe it's 1,500 per day.
I think you are right. I don't think it matters much.
We are currently looking at corona deaths of about a thousand a day.
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The fact that we could, without great difficulty , cremate 400,000 rather bigger bodies in a matter of months shows that, notwithstanding the denialists' lies, it is sadly all too possible.
I recall a project planning meeting one Monday morning: doctors, scientists, engineers, builders, accountants all sat round the table. The architect walked in and said he had just visited Auschwitz "designed and built by people like us".