Naked Science Forum
Non Life Sciences => Geology, Palaeontology & Archaeology => Topic started by: Laura_Kelly on 17/08/2009 09:15:38
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Given the large earthquake in Fiordland (southwest coast of the South Island) and the Lahar on Mt Ruapehu earlier in the year, what do our resident geologists have to say about the possibility of a large scale geological event (earthquake, eruption etc..) happening in the near future?
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It depends upon what you mean by 'near future', as that sets the limits of accuracy regarding prediction of the onset of new activity. While new geological events are inevitable in New Zealand, they can only be predicted to within, perhaps decades for some types of event, to millennia, tens of millennia, or even hundreds of millennia for others.
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There is a fairly good chance in the next 20 years.
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Near future? On a geological time scale, it is 100% certain that a large scale geologic event will occur in the near future. Human time scale- there may or may not be any major geologic events in our lifetimes.
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Okay, human life-time future, as in the next 20-30 years or so. Was curious because we hear heaps over here about making our homes earthquake safe, especially in Wellington where I live, because of the major faultline that runs through the North and South Islands. We are constantly told that a 'big' earthquake has been overdue for a long time, especially considering the regularity of past large earthquakes in the area. I must admit, it is quite funny though when us Wellingtonians hear about a 4.something eathquake in Auckland where everyone is freaking out, because we get those quite frequently.
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Frequent small earthquakes are a good thing- relieves the stress that otherwise would build up and cause a more devastating earthquake. Next time you get a 4.something shaker, smile and realize it is putting off the inevitable to a later date.