[set fair (OP)]

We are told that two low flu seasons (due to masking etc.) leave us vulnerable - low population immunity will lead to a bad flu season. What is the basis for this? Antibodies don't last from season to season so they shouldn't be a factor. Are they saying that immune memory fades after 2 or 3 years? That would seem to fly in the face of what we saw with the Spanish flu. So what is they banging on about?

[evan_au]

Yes, antibodies do fade if they aren't regularly reactivated.

But there are suggestions that some people have retained an immune memory of similar influenza outbreaks from many years before, which is why children are often affected badly by influenza, and are major transmitters of influenza.
- This produces a "V" shaped age profile, affecting mostly children (never exposed) and old people (generally more frail)

Both Influenza virus and Coronavirus are RNA viruses, which means that they mutate quite rapidly
- They both have several animal reservoirs, which is an additional source of mutations.

At present, influenza is seasonal, peaking in winter months (apart from the past 2 years with masks).
- But COVID variants are still sufficiently transmissible that it doesn't need to wait for another winter season; we seem to be getting new waves about every 6 months

[Bored chemist]

The flu has had 3 years to evolve and so it will be "thrice as different" as usual.
Our immune system will find it harder to recognise is compared to "this virus is pretty much the same as last year's".

[Petrochemicals]

I believe it means the number of people who would have developed normal immunity is lagging by 3 years, this translates into greater transmission generally, especially worrying to the vulnerable and the health care system that is usually innundated.

The mutations in flu are usually mild enough that the vaccines from prior years viruses work and the mutations are not a problem. Flu vaccine is painstakingly grown before the flu season in eggs.

[acsinuk]

We have had 4th Covid plus flu injections this October and are travelling fro Heathrow via Vietnam and Sydney to New Zealand.
Week into trip overnight flight from Saigon to Sydney arrive jetlagged at 9.30 am.
Cleared airport agricultural test queue by 11am and caught underground train to circulate quay a real easy trip just a credit card flash is enough and same with catching ferry at quay3 to Manly . Beautiful sunny day enjoying views but suddenly a sharp breeze blew across the seating and I started to shiver. So sunny could not be bothered to unpack all the luggage and 3 hours I later developed a sore throat and had to wrap up in our hotel bed as I also had a temperature of 39deg.C.
Used decade old soluble Aspirin pill as could not swallow new giant Codeine tablets as throat was to sore and needed soothing by the Aspirin dust.  This common old day chill was later to develop and a Covid test confirmed positive.  What good did all our vaccination do??.  Even the new medicine are all totally overpackaged and litter up the planet with plastic packaging that all has to be thrown away. In New Zealand now thank goodness.

[evan_au]

I'm sorry that an outing on beautiful Sydney harbour had such a bad outcome for you   
...but the incubation period is around 3-5 days, so you probably picked up COVID in UK (not that it will make you feel any better...)

Enjoy "the land of the long white cloud" (Aotearoa)

[acsinuk]

Thanks Evan,  Feeling well but yet still positive for covid so staying indoors .  Old days colds were considered to be most infectious in the first 3 days and not very infectious to others later on.  Has this changed??
Also very concerned about all the waste packaging.  Surely, even a Greek nose is not more than a matchstick length so the whole Covid test kit should not be must bigger than a matchbox.
Problem is selling the tester for $20 would be criticised as a ripoff.  Pharma marketing called in and advise to beautify the produce by embellishing the packaging to make it look complicated and valuable forgetting that the wasting plastic packaging which is junking up the planet with unnecessary rubbish but of course maintain huge profits.

[alancalverd]

The critical element in packaging is the probe which has to be long enough for a nurse with a gloved hand to be able to shove it up the nose (originally down the throat) of a child or a person sitting in a car, whist maintaining a professional detachment.

I did design a much simpler and quicker test but the bottom fell out of the market before we got approval. Next time, my friend!

Best wishes for a speedy return to the fray, and the sheer joy of New Zealand - the last refuge of civilisation!

[acsinuk]

Thanks Alan for trying to minimise the size of Covid test kit to an in the pocket minimalistic version.
Latest is Majestic Princess cruise liner just docked in Sydney has 800 Covid patients out of a passenger/crew total of 4500.  This is around 18% of total and very similar to the Diamond Princess infection rate at the beginning of the pandemic in 2019.
The slow Pharmaceutical  reaction and development of vaccines can be seen as quite ineffective and the world will just have to live with the fact that flu viruses are just going to continue mutating and we must never allow the WHO or press soothsayers panic us into locking down again.
  Inflationary  restrictions upset balance of payments between countries which is not healthy or useful..

[evan_au]

Inflationary  restrictions

Inflation is a natural outcome when you have:
- increased money supply (many governments gave handouts to individuals during COVID to stop people starving, and to businesses to stop businesses collapsing)
- and/or reduced supply of goods and services (business output was reduced due to COVID outbreaks and lockdowns)

The two main ways to increase money supply is to:
-  borrow money on international markets,
- or to "print" more money (even though a small percentage of the money supply is in the form of notes and coins).

Inflation is caused by both methods
- international debt is increased by borrowing, which must be repaid with interest

[Zer0]

Changing climate has a few hidden jibes unknowns' .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/03/25/bird-flu-dairy-cattle-usda-kansas-texas/2e7aab74-eaf7-11ee-8f2c-380a821c02db_story.html