Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Plant Sciences, Zoology & Evolution => Topic started by: pensador on 08/11/2020 18:40:55
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In view of the recent, covid-19 mutation in minks transmitted to humans, and some pets catching Covid-19 from their owners. Minks are not rodents and are cut and paste “Mustelids belong to the large order Carnivora, which means they are actually more closely related to other members of Carnivora, like dogs, cats and bears, than to rats and mice.” Other members in the weasel family include polecats, badgers, minks, martens, black-footed ferrets, wolverines and otters"
How did the mink get covid? Human to mink transmission or some other route?
I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks. I have not checked this little factoid, but see know reason why I might have been misinformed.
Rats live in sewers, could rats contract a mutation of covid-19. They have in the past been responsible for transmitting plagues, and are everywhere. Rats do not obey social distancing rules made by politicians, if they contracted the disease or a mutation, could they overcome human social distancing rules?
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How did the mink get covid? Human to mink transmission or some other route?
It was first noticed in mink farms - I have heard of outbreaks in Spain and the Netherlands in July-20, and now in Denmark (November-20). There have been major culling operations in both countries.
Mink farms have very concentrated populations of mink in small cages, so it only takes one to get sick for all of them to get sick.
- the most likely route of infection is from humans to mink.
- Humans travel from farm to farm, spreading coronavirus
- But when a virus gets into a new host (eg mink), it is likely that mutated virus will grow better in their new host
There have been cases reported where the mink have then transmitted this mutated version back to humans
-The big questions are whether this new mutation:
1. will affect humans more severely than the original human virus strains
2. will evade the human immunity conferred by infection by the human strains
3. will evade the human immunity conferred by the vaccines now being tested
See: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/17/spain-to-cull-nearly-100000-mink-in-coronavirus-outbreak
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-05/denmark-cull-mink-population-over-coronavirus-spread-mutation/12851638
I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks.
Yes, this has proven to be a useful tool in many countries.
Rats live in sewers, could rats contract a mutation of covid-19.
This is possible.
Fortunately, unlike several previous rat-borne plagues, humans are now well aware of rats as a disease vector, and use cats and rat-traps to keep them out of our houses (at least, in Western countries).
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
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This is possible.
Fortunately, unlike several previous rat-borne plagues, humans are now well aware of rats as a disease vector, and use cats and rat-traps to keep them out of our houses (at least, in Western countries).
Pet Cats have caught it from humans. It is likely then that if they are good ratters, they will get it and give to their owners. Gardeners and people who get their hands dirty might easily be in contact with rat dirt that rats have coughed and spluttered over.
This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat, I understand which is a flying rodent, it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.
The world will have to change, life expectancy is going to reduce back to 1950's levels. 3 score and 10
Any opinions on what should be done in the future, politically and socially???
The economy will not work if we are in lock down all the time. How will people have relationships.
Should the human race bite the bullet and let the disease spread, in a controlled fashion??
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This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat, I understand which is a flying rodent, it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.
Not a rodent, but a separate order again, with thousands of species, and probably closer to "flying mink" than to rats.
Should the human race bite the bullet and let the disease spread, in a controlled fashion??
Controlled how, to infect whom? Remember it is 20% disabling and 5% fatal, so if you allow it to spread, your immediate family and all their descendants will suffer from an entirely preventable disease. Even if that suits you, I don't want mine to.
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This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat,..., it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.
The Chinese have been eating bats for centuries.
What definition of "quickly" are you using?
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Controlled how, to infect whom? Remember it is 20% disabling and 5% fatal, so if you allow it to spread, your immediate family and all their descendants will suffer from an entirely preventable disease. Even if that suits you, I don't want mine to.
I wasnt suggesting how to control it. But since you ask, I understand it is mainly the weak, and elderley that have problems with covid. What would be wrong, with letting the younger and fitter people get the disease, and get over it. They could go to covid camps, where you get infected with your mates and mostly recover. Once recovered they would then have some immunity to the disease, and would be less likely to spread it the weak.
In India according to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ they have less than 1% mortality rate, america is up above the 4% mortality level along with some other wealthy countries. Where do you get your data, does it just apply to a particular group of people?
This virus originated in china from something they ate, a bat,..., it appears to jump species and mutate quickly.
The Chinese have been eating bats for centuries.
What definition of "quickly" are you using?
As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs. Ref timescale I was using from bats to chinese to italians to the rest of the world and now mink and back to humans. Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years. Time scale therefore less than a year by these standards is quick. Not centuries eons or nano seconds :)
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As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs.
You say that like they are the only ones.
Eating stuff is quite widespread behaviour among humans.Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years.
Well, I remember SARS, MERS, HIV and covid, so I must be about 200 years old.
More importantly, you are missing the fact that Chinese people (and, obviously, other people too, but we can leave your xenophobia to the side for now) have been eating bats- presumably bats with coronaviruses for centuries before one evolved into a form that significantly affects people.
So the period the virus has had for mutating is centuries.
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What would be wrong, with letting the younger and fitter people get the disease,
What would be wrong with that is that it's based on an unreal understanding of the disease.
It's true that most young people shrug off the infection without significant harm.
But it's also true that most of the over 70s do the same.
Every now and then I Heard this absurdly simplistic cry
"We should shield the vulnerable and let the disease rip through the rest of us".
Well, that's a fine idea.
Except we have no way to know who the vulnerable actually are.
We can say "it's about 5% of those over 70"
And we can say thing like "it's about 0.1% of those between 15 and 45 " or whatever
But we don't know which f***ing 0.1% it is, so we can't shield them.
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The death rate is about 5% overall. The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to "the economy".
"Letting the disease rip through the young" is fine as long as they never come in contact with the old (whom they will infect) , or get old themselves (because unlike mumps and measles, there is no demonstrated longterm immunity).
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As far as I understand it, they eat virtually everything including cats and dogs.
You say that like they are the only ones.
Eating stuff is quite widespread behaviour among humans.Pandemics are on average every 50 or so years.
Well, I remember SARS, MERS, HIV and covid, so I must be about 200 years old.
More importantly, you are missing the fact that Chinese people (and, obviously, other people too, but we can leave your xenophobia to the side for now) have been eating bats- presumably bats with coronaviruses for centuries before one evolved into a form that significantly affects people.
So the period the virus has had for mutating is centuries.
I tend to eat anything on a menu that I dont recognize or have not eaten before. If Dog or Cat had been a delicacy where I have been I am sure i would have tried it. I nearly had a rat once being passed of as a big hamster Coy. The americans on the next table said it was a bit bony :) Hamsters dont have tails 30cm long, otherwise they do look like big rats when skinned.
HIV only affects a minority of the population, but interestingly there is still no vaccine for it, and people do not become resistant to it. Likewise there is no vaccine yet for covid, although trials are being conducted.
In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.
Xenophobia ! not me dude. I like foreigners and foreign food. Perhaps its the politicians who have xenophobia about foreigners with covid or other people on this forum :)
Speaking of which :-X
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The death rate is about 5% overall. The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to "the economy".
"Letting the disease rip through the young" is fine as long as they never come in contact with the old (whom they will infect) , or get old themselves (because unlike mumps and measles, there is no demonstrated longterm immunity).
Where are you getting your figures from Alan ? If the death rate was this high their would be a lot more dead people in the world attributed to covid.
Why does all of society have to be locked down when the majority of society is not vulnerable. There is no long term demonstrated documented level or reinfection. Measles you can get shingles years later. The longterm effects of covid or any vaccine tested might also take years to manifest.
People in the 40 to 60 age group, occupy what positions that could not be better occupied by a ambitious younger more energetic people. If it was people in the 30 to 40 age group being affected would the politicians in charge lock down the economy.
Edit Just locking down the vulnerable, and promoting the 30 to 40 age group into managerial positions in companies to make them less vulnerable to the long term effects of covid might make the economy break out of the imminent recession caused by the lockdown
Again where do you get your figures? Above 45 from what I have read this risk levels start going up, especially if you are not fit or have underlying health issues.
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In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.
The imposition of effective quarantine will eventually clear any geographical area of a virus. The required period for COVID seems to be not more than 40 days if cases are handled properly. Then you deploy an entry test or vaccination certificate for anyone entering the area, and gradually amalgamate and expand safe areas.
Because the perimeter/area ratio is an inverse function of radius, the job gets easier as the safe area grows - you can appoint immigration control personnel as a multiple of r2 but the boundary you need to patrol only increases with r.
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Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?
I don't know about Alan but I got
"Deaths: 1,271,382
Recovered: 36,147,663"
from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And that gives about 3.5% which is close enough to 5% for me not to worry too much- given all the uncertainties involved.
Where are you getting your data?
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Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?
GOV.UK
UK confirmed cases to date: 1,213,363
UK confirmed deaths to date 49,238
You can do the maths yourself, but remember whilst "cases" are up to date, "deaths" officially occur up to 28 days after diagnosis. Since "cases" was increasing fairly steeply until last week, we can expect more "deaths" per "case" over the next few weeks.
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Measles you can get shingles years later.
Wrong and wrong.
Shingles is caused by the chickenpox virus, not the measles one.
And you don't "get it later"; you get it because it never went away.
It's a result of the virus "hiding" in the cells of the nervous system and staging a breakout when the immune system is struggling.
I presume the rest of your claims are equally poorly researched- i.e. wrong.The longterm effects of covid or any vaccine tested might also take years to manifest.
True.
For all we know, anyone who gets covid drops dead on teh anniversary of being infected.
But that's unlikely.
It's possible that both the vaccine and the virus have long term effects.
But a moment's thought makes it clear that a vaccine (with few components- mainly the "bit of the virus that triggers an immune response" ) will cause no more problems than the virus which contains many components also including " thebit of the virus that triggers an immune response".
And the vaccine isn't going to infect others and kill them.
So it's pretty silly to lump the two together like that.
Why did you do it?
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Mark 6:4
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Where are you getting your figures from Alan ?
I don't know about Alan but I got
"Deaths: 1,271,382
Recovered: 36,147,663"
from
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
And that gives about 3.5% which is close enough to 5% for me not to worry too much- given all the uncertainties involved.
Where are you getting your data?
Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.
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Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.
Worldometer says about 3.5% Alan said "about 5%" and backed it up with data that said about 3.4%
So everyone agrees- except you...
Is that because you don't bother to establish facts?
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Pensador: Not my figures, but yesterday's statement from the UK government statistical service. The worldometer figure is culled from countries with different reporting criteria and in different phases of the disease, but as BC points out, its average is pretty close to the reported UK death rate.
The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.
BC: 49,238/1,213,363 = 4.1% on my calculator. But give it a couple of weeks for the recent spike to claim its victims.
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Worldometer is a reasonable source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ It depends which age group you are in and Alans figures are way off, unless you are looking at pensioners.
Worldometer says about 3.5% Alan said "about 5%" and backed it up with data that said about 3.4%
So everyone agrees- except you...
Is that because you don't bother to establish facts?
Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong, different age groups are affected differently. I seem to be the only one who read the link from worldometer ref the effects of covid on different age groups.
I think my question was answered on the second post. The rest is just straw man arguments talking crap.
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Not my figures, but yesterday's statement from the UK government statistical service. The worldometer figure is culled from countries with different reporting criteria and in different phases of the disease, but as BC points out, its average is pretty close to the reported UK death rate.
The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.
Global Statistics show clearly different people age groups and races are affected differently. I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live.
In the unlikely event that a viable vaccine is not going to be developed, how should, would, could society change in the long run. The economy can not work in lock down.
The imposition of effective quarantine will eventually clear any geographical area of a virus. The required period for COVID seems to be not more than 40 days if cases are handled properly. Then you deploy an entry test or vaccination certificate for anyone entering the area, and gradually amalgamate and expand safe areas.
Because the perimeter/area ratio is an inverse function of radius, the job gets easier as the safe area grows - you can appoint immigration control personnel as a multiple of r2 but the boundary you need to patrol only increases with r.
Dream on. If you live on a small island maybe as in the carribean. But in a population the size of the UK or any city. People are not going to follow the guidelines for social separation, unless the disease frightens them in doors. Teenagers have more important hormone driven priorities than social separation and trying not to infect someone they dont give a crap about. This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.
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If you look at the worldometer "probability of death if infected" and divide it in proportion to the population in each age group, yo get something in the region of 5 - 6% overall.
This is hardly surprising as the virus hasn't changed since it was first reported, so why would the global fatality rate be any different from the figures carefully researched in a modern university hospital in Wuhan?
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I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live.
You seem to hail from Portugal. Interesting. Same size population as Sweden, more reported infections, but only half the number of reported deaths. Someone isn't telling the whole truth.
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But in a population the size of the UK or any city. People are not going to follow the guidelines for social separation
The city of Wuhan is bigger than most cities in the UK (or, indeed, Europe).
They did follow the rules.
It worked very well.
I'm no fan of authoritarian government, but you can't dispute the efficacy in this case.
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This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.
Many people are selfish.
That does not make it a good thing...
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I dont listen to government reports from the UK as I dont live there, and dont care about the situation outside of where I live.
You seem to hail from Portugal. Interesting. Same size population as Sweden, more reported infections, but only half the number of reported deaths. Someone isn't telling the whole truth.
We have a good health service in Portugal, many Portuguese nurses work in the UK, infact one of Boris Johnsons Covid nursers was Portuguese.
I actually live in the Azores and we have had very few deaths from Covid. Covid was eradicated on all the islands except Sao Miguel a couple of months back, then they allowed travel again, and hay presto covid came back. We currently have very few cases, and no deaths at all on this island. I feel for the people on mainland europe, and the other larger islands in the north atlantic. You are in the crap big time :(
I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures, and I dont think you have except for some Brexit phobia.
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This applies to a lot of other people who want to get on with their lives and dont see covid as a threat to them personally.
Many people are selfish.
That does not make it a good thing...
Its a fact of life, and needs to be built into any plan. Most teenagers are not known for their compassion, and neither are greedy business people, who want to win big business deals.
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neither are greedy business people, who want to win big business deals.
That's why we gave governments and laws
Most teenagers are not known for their compassion,
And, to a degree, ditto.
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I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures
So what magic potion are your countrymen using to halve the lethality of the virus?
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If you live on a small island maybe as in the carribean.
Or a big one like Australia. Or a middlesized one like New Zealand. Or a really densely populated trading hub like Singapore.
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I have zero reason to doubt the Portuguese figures
So what magic potion are your countrymen using to halve the lethality of the virus?
I dont see many fat slobs around where I live, and people dont get pissed out of their heads when they go out socializing. Maybe the portuguese were just lucky and the disease didnt get into retirement homes as easily as it did in the UK. Perhaps the majority of the people follow the rules ref social separation. Maybe the English figures are scare mongering.
We must also take into consideration that the disease is not only spread by contact it is spread by assholes, perhaps there are more assholes in the UK :)
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The rates of infection in the UK and Portugal to date are almost identical, at 1.8% of the population (worldometer), which is why the recorded COVID deaths seem so out of kilter with the rest of the civilised world.
I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress.
The number of biological assholes in the UK is about 68,000,000, mostly in the south and east. The number of dangerous assholes is 1, with his hand up that of the Prime Minister. Who else would have thought of infecting nursing homes as a deliberate policy? Indeed, Mr C edited one of his earlier emails in order to claim credit for it.
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The rates of infection in the UK and Portugal to date are almost identical, at 1.8% of the population (worldometer), which is why the recorded COVID deaths seem so out of kilter with the rest of the civilised world.
I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress
Well, it could be something as simple as warmer weather or lower rates of obesity.
Who knows?
It's still not a reason to advocate spreading the plague.
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I haven't been able to find cumulative excess death statistics for Portugal for 2020. Would be grateful if anyone has a lead, since this is known to be the only valid comparator of epidemic progress.
The number of biological assholes in the UK is about 68,000,000, mostly in the south and east. The number of dangerous assholes is 1, with his hand up that of the Prime Minister. Who else would have thought of infecting nursing homes as a deliberate policy? Indeed, Mr C edited one of his earlier emails in order to claim credit for it.
Two Websites one for Portugal and one for the Azores https://covid19.min-saude.pt/ponto-de-situacao-atual-em-portugal/ https://covid19.azores.gov.pt/ Hit translate if you dont speak pork n cheese.
It seems patients in nursing homes without Covid were moved to nursing homes with covid, allowing the nursing homes to be used for people recovering from covid, in at least one city > Sheffield
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It seems patients in nursing homes without Covid were moved to nursing homes with covid, allowing the nursing homes to be used for people recovering from covid, in at least one city > Sheffield
Patients were sent from hospitals to care homes without testing.
Boris blamed the surge in covid cases in homes on poor nursing /care in the homes .
They pointed out that they were following government instructions.
Boris is an utter *^%%
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Portugal and Azores figures may explain the apparent anomaly of 3% fatality - thanks for the reference. More than half of the cases have occurred since mid-October, so the vulnerable ones won't have died yet.
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Portugal and Azores figures may explain the apparent anomaly of 3% fatality - thanks for the reference. More than half of the cases have occurred since mid-October, so the vulnerable ones won't have died yet.
Not quite, in the Azores we did have it all but cleared up on all the islands by May except on Sao Miguel, which only had a handful of cases left. The majority of deaths were in sao miguel due to covid getting into a nursing home there. The Azores allowed travel again in May after we were cleared. Over the subsequent months there has been the odd case, but recently the numbers have started ramping up, due to people arriving from the mainland. The people returning with covid are typically less than 40, and less vulnerble to covid, lots of students, and people working. Also the Azores is testing everyone on arrival, to the islands. The disease has returned in the last month to the central group in small numbers and was being contained, by people behaving sensibly and self isolating. However this week a asshole returned from the mainland via sao miguel, and errr! gentlemens!! club, and then attended clubs and bars on Pico and Sao Jorge so all the people known to have attended are being traced by the authorities to try and contain the virus. If it is found to have spread, via persons not known in said clubs then the islands will go into lock down again. We will find out by the end of next week. At the moment normal social distancing measures are being applied, with no other restrictions.
The spread in Lisbon and Porto on the mainland is mainly due to the population density and a perhaps higher proportion of assholes. The Al Garve and other rural areas in the mainland have largely contained the virus last time I checked. By contained those with it or have been contact with someone with it, are in quarantine.
The virus is easy to contain in the Azores islands, due to low populations, small villages and cities that would only be classified as small towns in the UK. The problems occur when assholes arriving from infected areas, move as normal through the islands without isolating themselves whilst waiting for test results.
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Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly. My concern was that the raw figures of deaths per infection didn't make sense, but having seen the recent graphs, I can see why they are currently anomalous.
You might also get a secondary anomaly: any visitor who thinks he might be infected would be inclined to return home whilst asymptomatic and thus spread the disease and possibly die on the mainland.
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Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly.
Not really.
It would tell you who had the virus, and where they were, but it won't stop the spread.
Isolation- in some way or another is the only thing we have that currently stops the spread. Masks and biocides might slow it down usefully.
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True.
Test, track, trace and isolate.
Mea culpa - too busy working on a test and assuming that quarantine is obvious commonsense in the absence of a cure!
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BTW, a bit late but, re.
Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,
Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.
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Test, track and trace should limit the spread if it is done properly. My concern was that the raw figures of deaths per infection didn't make sense, but having seen the recent graphs, I can see why they are currently anomalous.
You might also get a secondary anomaly: any visitor who thinks he might be infected would be inclined to return home whilst asymptomatic and thus spread the disease and possibly die on the mainland.
The Azores is semi autonomous and self governing region. The political leaders here closed the islands down before the mainland when they saw how serious this bug was. Only essential travel was allowed up until May. When the islands were reopened.
The testing tracking and tracing in the azores was further enhanced during the first outbreak by preventing travel between the islands and individual council areas. In the final stages on Sao Miguel the army even closed of an entire town to prevent people going out and spreading the disease for a week or so.
The UK is not a small island, and I dont see the british government regardless of party locking the country down in a way that would eradicate the virus, like it was done in the Azores. Additional cases were detected in the Azores today, so I guess they will go into full lock down again, and stop travel.
The death figures in the Azores are low but we only have low infection levels and it is not currently in any old folks home as far as I am aware. I noted today that the shops are now restricting the number of people inside again, due to the recent increases in covid-19 on a few of the islands. A new lock down might be imminent prior to the mid winter solstice festivals. The cases on one island have increased 800% in just 3 weeks. They now have eight people infected on Sao Jorge, which is about 0.1% of the population.
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BTW, a bit late but, re.
Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,
Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.
Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%
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What do you think the word "about" means?
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I understand in the UK ,sewage has been monitored to locate covid-19 outbreaks.
There was a report on sewage testing for COVID-19 in the Coronacast podcast today (12 minutes).
- Sewage testing appears to be very effective at detecting COVID-19 infections, even in non-symptomatic & pre-symptomatic cases
- It is estimated that it is sensitive enough to detect 1 infected individual in a population of 100,000 to 1,000,000.
- It has been applied to whole cities, individual university dormitories, prisons, cruise ships and airplane flights
Listen: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/everything-youve-wanted-to-know-about-sewage-testing/12878138
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The worldometer table includes such entries as Mexico (9.8% fatality) and the Czech Republic (1.2%), so a large pinch of salt is recommended.
I'm no great fan of worldometer because it is uncritical of the validity of its inputs, but where the figures are believable the central estimate when the infection rate stabilises, seems to be in the region of 5% fatality. Which, as I said elsewhere, correlates with the early "gold standard" data from Wuhan. During periods of rapid growth, as now, the apparent fatality rate decreases because new infections are counted before those already infected have died.
You can expect the figure to reduce in any area with a stable infection rate where more than 10% of the population has been infected, since proportionally more of the elderly and comorbid will have died in the growth phase of the epidemic. The world leader at present seems to be the USA with just under 3% of the population diagnosed positive to date, so any national figure below 4% fatality within 40 days of infection, is dubious.
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BTW, a bit late but, re.
Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,
Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.
Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%
The Indian figure is currently reported as 1.4%. This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID. I haven't found reliable excess mortality statistics for India. Given the tiny number of infections in the Azores, the apparent fatality rate could swing from zero to 20% in a day, so not a useful indicator of the properties of the disease.
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This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID.
The indication is that people of South Asian ancestry living in the UK are more susceptible.
That doesn't necessarily tell you about how they would fare elsewhere in the world.
However a figure of 1.4% is very odd.
It could reflect a matter of record-keeping or possibly political "massaging" of the figures.
I'd not like to have to rule out simple demographics as an issue.
On the whole, there's a lot of people in India living in poverty, and that tends to mean, on average, a young population.
This disease tends not to kill the young, so maybe it tends not to kill Indians.
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"South Asian ancestry" in most cases only goes back one or two generations in the UK. The concern here is that South Asians are strongly represented in the professions and as business owners - decidedly "middle class" - yet apparently more susceptible to fatal COVID infection than their caucasian colleagues and counterparts. If this were a cultural or economic phenomenon, one would expect a correspondingly high or higher fatality rate in India, and if genetic, a rate at or above the UK average.
The population pyramids can be compared, with 12% of the UK and 6% of the Indian population over 70, so if COVID only killed the over-70's and all else was equal, you would expect to see 2 - 2.5% fatality in India.
The reported 1.4% is almost certainly unreliable.
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BTW, a bit late but, re.
Alan qouted 5 % across the populationb which is wrong,
Alan quoted ABOUT 5% which is right.
Not in India or the Azores, which country has 5% death rate? The US I thought was leading the figures with about 4%
The Indian figure is currently reported as 1.4%. This is anomalous as the indications in the UK are that South Asians are disproportionately susceptible to COVID. I haven't found reliable excess mortality statistics for India. Given the tiny number of infections in the Azores, the apparent fatality rate could swing from zero to 20% in a day, so not a useful indicator of the properties of the disease.
If the figures dont fit preconceptions perhaps the assumptions are wrong. India has a less obese population, and less elderley, than the USA, Italy or the UK. Why would India not report the correct figures. Only one person I know of with the disease has died. He did not die from the disease but complications afterwards, ie blood clot and heart attack. Some other friends report breathlessness, but being smokers I am not surprised. Everyone else I am aware of who has had the disease are OK now.
The Azores could be regarded as a micro model of how the disease can be controlled, and eradicated without a vaccine. Many of the Carribean islands are now becoming clear of covid also. They also locked down and stopped travel.
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up????
The worldometer site does give all its sources, if you dig into each link. It does not show any major country with a 5% death rate.
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Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up?
What do you think the word "about" means?
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Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up?
What do you think the word "about" means?
Do I assume you are making the 5% figure up. On closed cases there is about a 3% mortality rate, across the planet. This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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You need a whole bag of salt to read Worldometer. As I said, India shows around 1.4% fatalities but it is difficult to believe that their true recovery rates are significantly higher than the USA.
You also have a problem that when infection rates are rising exponentially (as now, almost everywhere) , the apparent fatality rate (deaths per 100 cases) decreases because there is a lag of about a month between infection and death.
The current issue of The Actuary (a believable professional source) puts the UK excess deaths (the only credible parameter, as discussed elsewhere) to date at 62,100, 4.6% of the known infections. As the daily new case rate has doubled in the last month, I would be very surprised if the fatality rate turns out to be much less than 6% by Christmas.
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This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased
Many thanks. Some years ago I had to fill in an insurance claim that included a space for "Signature of Deceased". I have now identified the author.
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Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?
You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?
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Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?
You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?
Only an idiot would expect an answer :)
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This figure does not take into account age, or health of the deceased
Many thanks. Some years ago I had to fill in an insurance claim that included a space for "Signature of Deceased". I have now identified the author.
sh1t did I write that :-[ I must be going native and forgetting how to speak english
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Quote from: Bored chemist on Today at 14:11:20
Quote from: pensador on Today at 14:01:32
Where is this figure of 5% mortality coming from. Is there a link some one could provide to back it up?
Quote from: Bored chemist on 12/11/2020 20:14:45
What do you think the word "about" means?
You keep forgetting to answer the question. Why is that?
Only an idiot would expect an answer :)
Do you mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.
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This week's Naked Genetics podcast addressed this question.
Listen (5 minutes) or read the transcript:
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/mink-coronavirus-whats-danger
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Do you mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.
Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer :)
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Do you mean the sort of idiot who makes a big song and dance about 3.5 not being "about 5"?
Anyway, It's not so much an idiot who expects an answer, as an idiot who signs up to a discussion site without intending to answer stuff like the rules say.
Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer :)
So, you are saying the sites administrators are idiots for believing you when you said that you would enter into a discussion.
That's... interesting.
Presumably you recognise that everyone apart from you realises that 3.5 is about 5, but you don't want to admit to being too foolish to have worked it out for yourself.
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Average time from symptoms to death is about one month.
On 14 October there were 654,644 confirmed COVID cases in the UK
by 30 October there were 56,313 excess deaths since March - 8.6%
by the time of writing (2330, 15 November) there were 51,934 registered COVID deaths - 7.9%
These scaremongering numbers were invented and published by irresponsible amateurs: Public Health England, UK Office for National Statistics, and WHO. Clearly these people know nothing about infectious disease and should refer to pensador, who can tell them the truth without bothering to collect any data at all.
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Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer
Don't insult other members, please.
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Like I said only an idiot would expect an answer
Don't insult other members, please.
I did not try to create a straw man argument and neither did not throw the first stone.
If you educate an idiot do you then have an educated idiot :)
@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
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@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures.
Everyone else did.
The The case fatality rate given on the page you cited shows data ranging from about 1.5 to about 14.
That could be summed up as " about 5%" and Alan did.
He's right within a factor of about 3 which is as good as you can get with a spread like that.
So, you can't find the data on the page you actually cited.
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I did not try to create a straw man argument and neither did not throw the first stone.
If you educate an idiot do you then have an educated idiot
I don't care. It's against the forum rules to insult other members. So cut it out.
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I did not try to create a straw man argument
Who did, and what was it?
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@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
It's a very good reference but you have to be able to read as well as look at the pictures. CFR is "case fatality rate".
When some people are currently sick and will die of the disease, but have not died yet, the CFR will underestimate the true risk of death. With COVID-19, there are many who are currently sick and will die, but have not yet died. Or, they may die from the disease but be listed as having died from something else.
In ongoing outbreaks, people who are currently sick will eventually die from the disease. This means that they are currently counted as a case, but will eventually be counted as a death too. This means the CFR right now is an underestimate of what it will be when the disease has run its course.
With the COVID-19 outbreak, it can take between two to eight weeks for people to go from first symptoms to death, according to data from early cases (we discuss this here)
which is exactly what I have been explaining in these discussions.
However if you look at the pictures carefully you will see what BC has pointed out.The CFR has peaked at around 14% in countries with a good health service and credible records (like Italy) and even in Sweden, often held up to be a model of best practice, the CFR peaked at 13.7% and is still at 4%.
What will interest the numerate among our readers is that the Italian peak,for instance, occurred in June, when the daily number of cases was at a minimum, and the daily case rate in Sweden is now at its highest ever. The reason is exactly as ourworldindata says: there is a lag of 2 - 8 weeks between symptoms and death, so whenever the case rate increases, the apparent death rate decreases.
Although the populations of India and Brazil are very large, the extent of testing and the accuracy of reported cause of death do not command the same degree of confidence as Spain, Sweden and Italy, so the reported "world average" is almost certainly less accurate an indicator of lethality that the carefully documented original work of Li Wenliang.
I don't subscribe to the "idiot" charge, because an idiot can be persuaded by the clear presentation of simple facts. The word for people who deny or ignore the truth is "priest" or "politician". There is no greater insult in my book, so I won't use it here.
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@ Alan I can find no data to support your make believe figures. Here is some data which does not support your claims, and it is much inline with what I have been reading. https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid
It's a very good reference but you have to be able to read as well as look at the pictures. CFR is "case fatality rate".
The reference does clearly point out that the younger are less vulnerable. They are not considered in the high risk group and in America at least the vaccination planning does not include the young if vaccines are limited.
The below cut and paste is from the American CDC website. The young are considered less vulnerable.
"
ACIP is considering four groups to possibly recommend for early COVID-19 vaccination if supply is limited:
Healthcare personnel
Workers in essential and critical industries
People at high risk for severe COVID-19 illness due to underlying medical conditions
People 65 years and older
Healthcare personnel continue to be on the front line of the nation’s fight against this deadly pandemic. By providing critical care to those infected with the virus that causes COVID-19, many healthcare personnel have a high risk of being exposed to and getting sick with COVID-19. Healthcare personnel who get COVID-19 can also spread the virus to their patients seeking care for medical conditions that, in turn, increase their patients’ risk for severe COVID-19 illness. Early vaccine access is critical to ensuring the health and safety of this essential workforce of approximately 21 million people, protecting not only them but also their patients, communities, and the broader health of our country. Learn who is included under the broad term “healthcare personnel.”
Workers in essential and critical industries are considered part of America’s critical infrastructure, as defined by the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agencyexternal icon. Current data show that many of these workers are at increased risk for getting COVID-19. Early vaccine access is critical not only to protect them but also to maintain the essential services they provide U.S. communities.
People with certain underlying medical conditions are at increased risk for severe COVID-19 illness, regardless of their age. Severe illness means that the person with COVID-19 may require hospitalization, intensive care, or a ventilator to help them breathe, or that they may even die. Early vaccine access is critical to ensuring the health and safety of this population that is disproportionately affected by COVID-19.
Among adults, the risk for severe illness and death from COVID-19 increases with age, with older adults at highest risk. Early vaccine access is critical to help protect this population that is disproportionately affected by COVID-19.
"
The youngest financially vulnerable workers are not even considered, in this American dream plan.
The English politicians are known for their frugality and dislike of spending money except when their mates are losing out. Has the UK even got enough vaccines to treat the health workers, let alone the statistically vulnerable, who are going to die of old age soon any way.
School kids need their education, and if they are as you say going to a life time of complications through contracting covid-19, should they not be given a higher priority over the elderly grandparents or politicians.
Someone having a life time of complications against someone who only has a couple of years left to live.
Which group should be the priority in a country that has not got enough vaccines to go around.
In the UK I am pessimistically guessing included in the essential workers will be politicians and their mates before any of the younger generation get a look in.
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Nobody has any approved commercial vaccine at this time.The only people who can be vaccinated are volunteers in clinical trials of safety and efficacy.
Youngsters may not suffer greatly but because they can be asymptomatic, they are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.
So the requirement is to vaccinate everybody (except for the fools who refuse, but it's their funeral).
Given that there may not be immediate 100% availability, it makes sense to vaccinate the most vulnerable, the most exposed, and the most essential initially, but any suggestion that groups should be permanently excluded for any nonmedical reason must be regarded as defecting to the enemy, for which the penalty is death.
Not sure about the others, but the Oxford vaccine is expected to cost about £2 per shot when it is commercialised. Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.
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Has the UK even got enough vaccines to treat the health workers
No
But you seem to have missed something- we can make more of it.
The reference does clearly point out that the younger are less vulnerable.
If you check really carefully, you will find that nobody ever disputed this.
Why do you keep banging on about it?
Just a thought...
Before they gave you a BCG vaccination against TB they checked to see if you had already been exposed. If you had been, there was no point in vaccinating you, and there was a larger risk of adverse reaction.
Given that there was no effective PPE, and thus many or most health workers were exposed, will the politicians (and I broadly share Alan's view of them) use this as an excuse not to spend resources vaccinating them?
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Nobody has any approved commercial vaccine at this time.The only people who can be vaccinated are volunteers in clinical trials of safety and efficacy.
Youngsters may not suffer greatly but because they can be asymptomatic, they are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.
So the requirement is to vaccinate everybody (except for the fools who refuse, but it's their funeral).
Given that there may not be immediate 100% availability, it makes sense to vaccinate the most vulnerable, the most exposed, and the most essential initially, but any suggestion that groups should be permanently excluded for any nonmedical reason must be regarded as defecting to the enemy, for which the penalty is death.
Not sure about the others, but the Oxford vaccine is expected to cost about £2 per shot when it is commercialised. Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.
Given that the young are spreaders, would it not make sense therefore to vaccinate them, to stop the little sh1ts from spreading it ;) Just vaccinating vulnerable small sections of a community with a vaccine whose long term efficacy is not fully tested, might result in a need for re-vaccination of the vulnerable the following year. The young might never be vaccinated until they become vulnerable due to complications arising from having contracted covid.
Moderna a US company have just agreed a deal for 5 million vaccines to the UK, at 25$ a shot. This vaccine does not need storing at -70C like the one being bought from the European company and can be stored in a normal fridge. It has a claimed 94.5 effectiveness and 100% effective against needing hospital treatment in the event you get it. It also has indications that it might have long term effectiveness.
5 million vaccines is not enough for the UK, how many other vaccines have been ordered from else where for delivery when, does any one know? UK population currently just over(about) 68 million.
Politically without a Brexit deal, will buying anything from the EU stop, including vaccines? Most EU officials are pessimistic about a deal will be done with the UK.
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Given the cost of not supplying it, failure to prepare and fund a 100% program would be political suicide in the UK, or a popular election platform in the banana state across the pond.
Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida ;) https://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/fe901#:~:text=US%20Banana%20Production,-US%20banana%20production&text=Hawaii%20is%20by%20far%20the,to%208%2C090%20mmt%20in%202010.
Edit I think this link from the BBC posted 19 hours ago, explains the status on vaccines to date https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51665497
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Politically without a Brexit deal, will buying anything from the EU stop, including vaccines? Most EU officials are pessimistic about a deal will be done with the UK.
EU manufacturers are quite happy to sell anything to anyone, usually at a lower price than inside the EU, because the rest of the world is competitive. Since the UK is the third largest customer for German cars (after Germany and the USA) they would be mad to think otherwise. The "deal" is: no import duties on EU goods unless the EU puts a duty on UK goods, in which case the UK tariff on German cars or French food is 50% from midnight. The sound of politicians falling out of windows hasn't been heard for a long time.
If it is possible to manufacture 1 million or 5 million shots to an acceptable quality level, it's possible to manufacture 50 or 100 million. The technology break occurs in the 1,000 to 1,000,000 scale up from laboratory to factory, after which it is a much simpler question of building another factory. Given a world market for 5,000,000,000 ASAP and at least 500,000,000 annually until the bug is eradicated, it's a safe investment.
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Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida
You don't have to grow bananas to become a banana republic. The term refers to the intellect of the president and the moral integrity of the senate.
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Since the USA of america is made up of many states and Hawaii being in the Pacific, I guess you might be referring to the state of Florida
You don't have to grow bananas to become a banana republic. The term refers to the intellect of the president and the moral integrity of the senate.
Do mean president trump, who is seen here having a tantrum as his minders try to make him leave the white house Its worth a chuckle!. scary thing this guy would have won another election if it had not been for Covid-19.
Ref conspiracy theorists many people wont take a vaccine for various conspiratorial reasons, some hovering around Bill Gates. Its not just the current President who might have mental issues.
When and if the French based Astra Zeneca vaccine is released. Portugal will receive enough doses to vaccinate at least 60% of the population. The other 40% will have to wait.
There is confusing information ref the storage temperatures required for the vaccines, I have read that Modernas and Astra Zenecas vaccine both can be stored at around -20C I have also read that Modernas needs to be stored at -70C which is right, does anyone know? https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/from-labs-to-syringes-how-a-covid-19-vaccine-will-reach-you/articleshow/78253854.cms
Edit answered my own question https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/boost-oxford-covid-vaccine-emerges-rivals-must-deep-frozen/
-2C or -8C for astro zeneca protein based vaccine. Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines and -70C and -25C respectively
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There is confusing information ref the storage temperatures required for the vaccines,
There has been more information released on this recently...
Storage stability of the Astra-Zenica mRNA vaccine went something like this:
- Store for 6 months at -70°C (eg liquid nitrogen temperatures)
- Store for 1 month at -40°C (eg Dry Ice temperatures)
- Store for 5 days at 4°C (eg normal vaccine fridge at a doctor or pharmacy)
- So it degrades over time, becoming less effective as a vaccine
I assume that it is one or the other - you can't take one of each! (ie 6 months + 1 month + 5 days)
- This is due to the fact that mRNA is more fragile than DNA or proteins
- It is packaged in a lipid (fatty) membrane, without the various support structures that hold virus RNA together
- It is subject to radiation in the environment, from the decay of radioactive elements and cosmic rays
- As a non-living object, it has no repair mechanism
There are projects underway to deliver the vaccine in a more practical way, like an insulated box with dry ice inside.
There are projects underway to extend the vaccine lifetime, like additives in the vaccine to stabilize it, or a powdered form.
Some of the more traditional types of vaccines are better suited to the traditional vaccine refrigerator (4°C).
- But even a 4°C cold-chain is hard to maintain in some parts of the world...
Some information here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-how-much-they-cost-whos-bought-them-and-how-theyre-stored.html
Youngsters ... are very efficient breeders, carriers and spreaders, and thus guarantee the pool of infection that the virus requires.
This is certainly true of influenza.
I heard of a detailed population simulation of SARS-COV2 virus spread (from a team at Sydney University). It gave excessively high rates of spread if they assumed that children spread the virus as efficiently as adults.
When they wound back the infectivity of children, the rates of spread looked more realistic.
See: https://spectrum.ieee.org/artificial-intelligence/medical-ai/why-modeling-the-spread-of-covid19-is-so-damn-hard
So maybe children are less infectious?
- I heard that the virus spike protein must be cleaved before it can enter cells efficiently
- And the enzymes responsible are more common in adolescents and older
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I assume that it is one or the other - you can't take one of each! (ie 6 months + 1 month + 5 days)
- This is due to the fact that mRNA is more fragile than DNA or proteins
- It is packaged in a lipid (fatty) membrane, without the various support structures that hold virus RNA together
- It is subject to radiation in the environment, from the decay of radioactive elements and cosmic rays
- As a non-living object, it has no repair mechanism
Are you sure the Astra Zeneca vaccine is mRNA based vaccine and not a protein based vaccine?
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scary thing this guy would have won another election if it had not been for Covid-19.
The real scary thing is that COVID would not have killed more Americans in 9 months than World War I, Korea and Vietnam, if it had not been for Trump. And yet still they vote for him. 70 million bananas, each with a death wish.
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Are you sure the Astra Zeneca vaccine is mRNA based vaccine and not a protein based vaccine?
Since mRNA in a cell produces proteins, a mRNA vaccine is also a protein-based vaccine.
- Both the Astra-Zeneca and Moderna vaccine candidates ferry mRNA into human cells following vaccination.
- The human cells produce a protein, which appears on the surface of the cells
- This is a corona virus protein, which would only be visible there if the cell were infected with corona virus
- The immune system recognizes this protein as "foreign", and attacks it.
See, for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-13/pfizer-pfe-astrazeneca-azn-moderna-mrna-covid-vaccines-leave-questions
Some traditional vaccines just inject the protein, and contain no mRNA
- While others inject a whole virus (perhaps in a weakened state)
- Often an adjuvant is added to the vaccine to better grab the attention of the immune system
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adjuvant
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Does any one believe politicians " AstraZeneca and its partner, Oxford, agreed to deliver 100 million doses of their vaccine to the U.K., which will be the first country to get access should the shot succeed, the British government said in May."
https://www.europeanpharmaceuticalreview.com/news/125848/astrazeneca-to-supply-europe-with-up-to-400-million-doses-of-covid-19-vaccine/
America looks like it is going to double its deaths to nearly half a million before Trump is removed from the White house. 4.4 million active and increasing rapidly, even at a 2% death rate thats nearly 90000 every 3 weeks and he is in for another 9 weeks.
I think I will stay where I am for the foreseeable.
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The AZ statement would be entirely credible as the primary business of AZ is the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, it is dependent on undefined "success", the UK is a reliable market, and there is no timescale. BUT
The statement was allegedly made, not by AZ but by a government whose overriding priority is giving ever more of your money to "consultants" on a pointless railway project, has no demonstrable competence at purchasing anything that works from any legitimate manufacturer, and was until this week run by an unelected liar.
As of today we have no idea who has one hand in your pocket and the other up the prime minster's backside, but we can reasonably assume that excuses will be made, lessons will be learned, we will draw a line under it and move on, and somebody's brother-in-law will receive a large brown envelope. That's politics, and it probably translates into Portuguese too.
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The AZ statement would be entirely credible as the primary business of AZ is the manufacture of pharmaceuticals, it is dependent on undefined "success", the UK is a reliable market, and there is no timescale. BUT
The statement was allegedly made, not by AZ but by a government whose overriding priority is giving ever more of your money to "consultants" on a pointless railway project, has no demonstrable competence at purchasing anything that works from any legitimate manufacturer, and was until this week run by an unelected liar.
As of today we have no idea who has one hand in your pocket and the other up the prime minster's backside, but we can reasonably assume that excuses will be made, lessons will be learned, we will draw a line under it and move on, and somebody's brother-in-law will receive a large brown envelope. That's politics, and it probably translates into Portuguese too.
Exactly it is a political statement(mostly worthless).
Politicians globally dont in general have good reputations in my experience, especially when they have dictatorships or over whelming majorities, and can not be held accountable. Apparently power corrupts and people are supposed to accept it, or is it people get the leaders they deserve?
Luckily
The Government in Portugal does not have an over whelming majority, so can be held accountable (to a certain extent). However! :-X
The UK gov at the moment appears as if its taken advice from some African dictatorship, handing out contracts to family members, who have no expertise in what they are selling. You mention consultants, that I am sure you are aware is likely the tip of the ice berg ;) I guess this subject could make a whole new thread.
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The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with a persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to "the economy".
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This is a useful review of the role of mink in coronavirus evolution and spread (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/articles/interviews/mink-infect-12-new-coronavirus-variant) from the Naked Scientists Podcast last week.
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The majority of those who do not require positive ventilation but are discharged with a persistent disability after bed rest with supplementary oxygen are in the 40 - 60 age group - those most important to "the economy".
What is your source for this information?
What percentage of the "majority" in the 40 - 60 age group have persistent disabilities?
Things change :) as they do. What makes this age group the most important to the economy?
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1.Arithmetic and published government data
2. Of those I know, 100%. It's an ongoing study because very few people have had COVID for more than a year, but if you google for "long covid" you will find plenty of statistics.
3. The economy itself - at least in countries with progressive taxation.
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Photos of Kleinia fulgens which survived the hail in the winter and the weird weather we have been having recently.
The first flowers came out at the end of May and a new one is in preparation