1

The Environment / Are the sunspots returning?

« on: 24/02/2010 17:18:02 »

There may be a recovery. This is important because 2008 and 2009 had among the most spotless days in 148 years. Ranking number four and five, I think. Further, they were the ONLY consecutive years to have similarly high spotless days.

Here is a graph from January and most of February. I have been unable to find an analysis of how significant these numbers might be. Whether they are typical of early cycle activity or not. Sunspot peak has been estimated for 2011 or 2012. However, the sun was down right catatonic the last couple of years, and I don't know how that figures in.

At any rate, the commentator at one of the sites I visited expressed relief.

http://space-env.esa.int/Data_Plots/noaa/ssn_plot.gif

2

The Environment / Can we trust East Anglia's Jones on anyting?

« on: 16/02/2010 19:29:31 »

Phil Jones is reported to have said some remarkable things recently:

"Asked by the BBC what it means when scientists say "the debate on climate change is over," the keeper of the flame sounded chastened. "I don't believe the vast majority of climate scientists think this," Jones said. "This is not my view"...Jones also noted that there's been no statistically significant warming since 1995, although the cooling since 2002 hasn't been statistically significant, either."

Jeeze, FIFTEEN YEARS of near climate stasis. Even as a skeptic I thought near-stasus was only TEN years long! Climatology is in a sad state of affairs when one of its Mount Olympus gods is more skeptical then me on this particular point. I was too generous by 50%

ONLY FIVE DAYS LEFT TO SAVE THE PLANET!!! And where is algore when you really really need him?

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/opedcolumnists/warming_meltdown_iD1hypJAstOrvovafbIbGK

3

Plant Sciences, Zoology & Evolution / Do all planetary life forms descend from a single DNA line of evolution?

« on: 06/02/2010 19:34:03 »

If the conditions for life were plentiful at the beginning, I would expect more then one line of evolutionary descent. After all, microbes of various types co-exist within the DNA set we observe today. I see no reason that separate lines could not also have coexisted.

4

The Environment / Dutch Ofc of Environmental Planning & IPCC in cahoots - or both just inept?

« on: 06/02/2010 15:27:46 »

Here we go again. Drip, Drip, Drip.

"The Netherlands has asked the UN climate change panel to explain an inaccurate claim in a landmark 2007 report that more than half the country was below sea level, the Dutch government said Friday.

"According to the Dutch authorities, only 26 percent of the country is below sea level, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) will be asked to account for its figures, environment ministry spokesman Trimo Vallaart told AFP....

"IPCC experts calculated that 55 percent of the Netherlands was below sea level by adding the area below sea level -- 26 percent -- to the area threatened by river flooding -- 29 percent -- Vallaart said.

"They should have been clearer," Vallaart said, adding that the Dutch office for environmental planning, an IPCC partner, had exact figures.

Correcting the error had been "on the agenda several times" but had never actually happened, Vallaart said.

The spokesman said he regretted the fact that proper procedure was not followed and said it should not be left to politicians to check the IPCC's numbers.

The Dutch environment ministry will order a review of the report to see if it contains any more errors, Vallaart said."

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.8d6e5773c60565dfc6e882b0a8dcbf18.4e1&show_article=1

5

The Environment / Why the huge sea-ice discrepancies NOAA v University of Colorado

« on: 30/01/2010 22:07:00 »

I have been researching sea ice and have two sources, one from NOAA and one from University of Colorado Snow and Ice Data Center. These two sources do not even come close to matching. What am I missing here.....

Fall 2006, NOAA reports: "... decline of 10% per decade in the Arctic perennial ice cover and the 7% per decade retreat in the Bellingshaussen/Amundsen Seas ice cover in the Antarctic."
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2006AGUFM.C52A..04C

February 2009, Colorado reports a decrease of 4.1% per decade decrease in Arctic ice and an increase of 0.9% per decade in Antarctic ice.
http://nsidc.org/seaice/characteristics/difference.html

6

The Environment / NOAA Weather Station Scandal.....?

« on: 30/01/2010 21:27:36 »

Has anyone else heard of this? Is it true?  http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html

"Perhaps the key point discovered by Smith was that by 1990, NOAA had deleted from its datasets all but 1,500 of the 6,000 thermometers in service around the globe."

"For example, Canada’s reporting stations dropped from 496 in 1989 to 44 in 1991, with the percentage of stations at lower elevations tripling while the numbers of those at higher elevations dropped to one. That’s right: As Smith wrote in his blog, they left “one thermometer for everything north of LAT 65.” And that one resides in a place called Eureka, which has been described as “The Garden Spot of the Arctic” due to its unusually moderate summers."

I am skeptical. For one thing, I have not heard of it before from either side of the climate debate. In addition, it just sounds to fantastic. FEWER weather stations!!! And I don't buy the idea they are replaced by satellites. Satellites have all sorts of data acquisition issues. For instance fixed and floating bouys are actually used to help CALIBRATE the Sea Surface Temperature satellites.

The satellites only record the top 'skin' temperature which varies diurnally and also is affected by cloud cover and wind-chill. The bouy's take temperatures at a depth of one meter, where the temperature is isolated from cloud cover and many other surface variables.

And the same thing goes for land stations. They take their measurement about five feet off the ground in a shaded and ventilated box. The surface temperature around the box will vary greatly with cloud cover, humidity, rain and wind chill, among other factors.

So. If NOAA really HAS reduced its ground weather stations by 75%, some real explaining is in order. Especially since such stations provide a continuous data set for perhaps a hundred years or so? Now 75% of them are gone or not included!

7

The Environment / How much carbon is sequestered by the forest industry?

« on: 28/01/2010 18:57:26 »

The industry has several categories. These include old growth cutting of conifer and hardwood trees as well as secondary and tertiary cutting of hardwood forests. One of the largest categories is conifer plantations cultivated for fast growth and used as lumber and paper products.

I suspect almost all the products sequester carbon in one way or another. For instance, lots of paper is recycled, and that which isn't ends up in dumps where it does not seem to degrade. Further, lumber is a form of temporary sequestration because it is used to build houses and other durable products.

I also wonder what happens to the wood scrap produced when durable products are replaced with newer versions? I know lots of furniture just gets sent to the dump, as do lumber products removed from small scale renovations. I don't know what they do with the stuff when an older home is torn down. I suspect, however, that almost all houses ever built with wood in the US are still standing, and will continue standing for a very long time.

Just curious.....

8

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Does Relativity Work Both Ways?

« on: 08/01/2010 18:48:30 »

We are all familiar with the 'experiment' of two clocks. One is set on the mantel, and the other is sent out at 86% the speed of light (50% dialation). On return, we find the one sent out comes back having clocked one half the time as the one on the mantel. If the one sent out does not slow up upon returning, we notice through the digital display on the vehicle it is actually ticking at half speeed.

I believe he, on the other hand, would observe our clock ticking faster. This can be illustrated this way. As he streaks out at 86% the speed of light we will observe him travel one light year in, what, 14 months? He, on the other hand, will observe he got there in 7 months, since his time dialation is 50%. His radio communications to us would confirm this.

However, lets assume two cesium clocks in in another circumstance. We have a Cesium clock on the mantel with a digital display on our roof. Out of nowhere a space alien ship streaks by with a similar display. Do we BOTH see the other's clock as showing an equal 50
% dialation? That seems impossible.

I believe time is relative based upon the force needed to achieve a relative dialation of, say 50%.  If this is true, then the space alien and I can compare our observations and determine which one of us has had more accelerative force applied to our respective clocks since the Big Bang.

The only explanation for the fact we are not going the same speed relative to each other is that one of us has had more accelerative force applied. Otherwise, we would be in stasis as the universe expands, and would only notice a red shift in the two digital displays, not a difference in recorded time.

Comments. Puleezzeee......

9

The Environment / How much do cosmic rays vary over time?

« on: 07/01/2010 16:32:39 »

I have seen estimates that cosmic rays been as much as 200 percent higher centuries ago and that they are at the highest now then they have been in 50 years. However, I have not been able find a graph of cosmic rays over time. From NASA:

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Cosmic-Ray-Concentrations-Highest-in-Half-a-Century-122993.shtml

This is important because I have seen some claims that as much as 2/3 of GW 20th century warming can be correlated with cosmic rays.

"In practical terms, says Dr. Shaviv, "The operative significance of our research is that a significant reduction of the release of greenhouse gases will not significantly lower the global temperature, since only about a third of the warming over the past century should be attributed to man."

http://www.scienceagogo.com/news/20030713212408data_trunc_sys.shtml

This is not the only citation I have concerning this, but it is pointless if I can not find chart showing WHEN cosmic rays were double in the past 1,000 years. Any ideas where else to look? I will pick up on this research myself, but would not mind some help!

THANKS

The importance of cosmic rays to climate is illustrated by the price of grain in the middle ages:

"For all ten solar cycles between 1600 and 1700, high wheat prices coincided with low activity, and vice versa. The probability of this happening by chance is less than 1 in 500, the researchers say."

http://www.bioedonline.org/news/news.cfm?art=686

10

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Why Didn't Einstien Reference Michelson-Morley In Special Relativity

« on: 04/01/2010 18:22:00 »

The Michelson-Morley experiments showed light speed is the same for all observers. What other explanations could there have been other then, at least,time dialation?

11

The Environment / Does Deep Ocean Volcanic Activity Vary Over Time?

« on: 09/12/2009 20:41:53 »

I recently ran across a study suggesting the last ice age was ended by deep sea volcanic activity? Does anyone have references or opinions on the general topic 'variability of ocean volcanic activity?

12

The Environment / How Much Have Sea Levels Changed Over Time?

« on: 09/12/2009 20:38:38 »

The Copenhagen disaster movie got me to wondering.  How HAVE the ocean levels changed over time?  Any references or opinions?

13

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Is Space/Time/Length Infinitely Divisible?

« on: 21/11/2009 18:29:01 »

I have always had an allergy to infinities existing in our natural world anywhere or at any time. FINALLY! I have found a kindred spirit in no less then The Max Plank Institute For Gravitational Physics. Specifically [emphasis added]:

"In the conventional big bang models based on general relativity, our universe began in a patently absurd physical state: With the big bang singularity, at a time when all the space and matter we see around us today was compressed to a single point of infinitely high density. Such infinities are a sure sign for "pathological" physics; a sure sign that Einstein's equations which, in the big bang models, govern the evolution of the cosmos, lose their meaning directly at the big bang."

http://www.aei.mpg.de/einsteinOnline/en/spotlights/building_blocks/index.html

14

The Environment / Why Has Global Warming Stopped?

« on: 20/11/2009 19:28:52 »

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,k-6975,00.html

"... the world grew warmer by 0.07 degrees Celsius from 1999 to 2008 and not by the 0.2 degrees Celsius assumed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. And, say the British experts, when their figure is adjusted for two naturally occurring climate phenomena, El Niño and La Niña, the resulting temperature trend is reduced to 0.0 degrees Celsius -- in other words, a standstill."

"Hamburg Max Planck Institute scientist Jochem Marotzke, on the other hand, says: "I hardly know any colleagues who would deny that it hasn't gotten warmer in recent years."

15

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / What velocity would be achieved with 1/10G applied for one hour.

« on: 16/11/2009 14:57:23 »

I am brainstorming interstellar exploration and believe normal ion type engine could push a probe into the relativistic velocities.  For instance, at 86 percent the speed of light, it seems that mass dialation would be no more then 100 perchent, which means the acceleration might only be effectively reduced by half.

16

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Does Gravity Increase With Mass Dilation?

« on: 15/11/2009 15:51:29 »

According to the ever faithfull E=mc2, a massive body increases mass when accelerated. I just wonder if it gravity increases as well?

17

The Environment / Is Total Ocean Heat Content Going Up or Down

« on: 13/11/2009 17:10:07 »

I spent the entire morning trying to make sense out of the data. The best I can come up with is summarized here. http://oceans.pmel.noaa.gov/Pdf/heat_2006.pdf

My take on the issue is the oceans are in near stasus, or cooling slightly, perhaps taking up more CO2. I was especially intriqued by the Mona Loa CO2 graph. Its the first time I have seen it, and don't know quite what to make of it in general.

The following link is best used as an explanation on one method used to gather ocean information.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

18

The Environment / Is Global Warming Interest Cooling Off?

« on: 11/11/2009 18:49:41 »

I've been following this stuff since the 1970's when Time Magazine confidently reported "Telltale signs [of a comming ice age] are everywhere..."  http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=25676.0

That particular hysteria subsided, and I sense something similar is hapening now. I base this on a number of observations. First, my decade of anecdotal experiences shows a general atrophy among the CO2 faithful. In addition, I notice a certain degree of hesitancy in the general reporting. For instance, we see 'Climate Change' has replaced the customary 'Global Warming' terminology. I sense editors hedging bets...

In addition, the public is increasingly aware there is not now nor has there ever been any sort of meaningful consensus on the topic. This was painfully demonstrated to algore by one or another British Court decision.  And then there is The Incovenient Truth planet has been cooling for about a decade already. 

The Climatistas lived by the hot, stormy, anecdote. A constant drizzle of "Hotest Summer On Record" "Tornados and Hurricanes OH MY!  More recently we see repeated reports of record breaking low temperatures. Not a single hurricane this year! etc etc. I don't claim these things prove Global Cooling, but I sense a general weariness with the banality of it all.

19

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Calculation Needed for 50% Time Dialation

« on: 05/11/2009 19:21:20 »

THOUGHT EXPERIMENT

FIRST: We specify three places in space all in a straight line: 1) A destination exactly one light year from 2)The observation point of the experiment, and 3) A place sufficiently distant behind us that we can accelerate a vessel to a relativistic speed where we observe the travelers cesium clock exactly 1/2 the one we have as he passes us towards the destination.

We ask him to use celestial navigation to report his position from time to time. He will report he arrived at the destination in half the time predicted by the speed we observed as he passed.

From our point of view at possition B, how fast would the vessel need to go in order to achieve this time dialation of 50%..

20

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / ESP

« on: 03/11/2009 20:17:35 »

Vern,

All of this speculation is also 'entangled' [pardon the pun] with a long history of ESP research at Drake and elsewhere. ESP experiments have shown unequivacle statistical significance over decades.  The effect is small, and will do you very little good in Los Vegas.  However, I refuse to reject these statistical results.

Further, the results seem to confirm a small statistically significant effect at premonition. Specifically, the target subject actually responds BEFORE the sender has initiated the communication.  They usually use a double blind structure using either large playing cards, or video sreen imputs.