Post by: acsinuk on 08/02/2021 15:50:43
Post by: alancalverd on 08/02/2021 18:38:49
I've offered to market veterinary medicines that have not been tested on animals, but nobody will buy them.
In the case of COVID, which seems pretty harmless to bats, the only useful model is human volunteers.
Post by: Bored chemist on 08/02/2021 18:54:17
thalidomide, which did no harm to rabbits.Actually it does.
But it's much less harmful to mice- which are cheaper than rabbits.
Post by: evan_au on 08/02/2021 21:20:42
- But in the end, you need a clinical trial in humans.
For a comparison, see "Animal models for COVID-19": https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2787-6
Post by: acsinuk on 09/02/2021 15:18:09
Post by: alancalverd on 09/02/2021 16:16:14
As long as people complain about quarantine, the enemy will increase in numbers and broaden his range of tactics without abandoning the original strategy, so you end up fighting on more fronts every day without actually winning on any of them.
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/02/2021 19:03:34
Yes, we need human volunteers and people who will not sue the drug company if they were to die from side effects within a month as we need to issue the updated vaccine immediately not mess around 6 months waiting. This is a national emergency not a lawyers health and safety tea party.A long time ago I was told that it costs about 100 million to bring a drug to market. I imagine there's another zero on the price tag now.
Most of that money was spent on things that didn't work.
Are you suggesting that instead of rats (or cell cultures) we use humans because it would be quicker?
Well, for a start, it wouldn't, and for a finish we would run out of volunteers well before we got anywhere.
The usual (and recent, expedited,) protocols for drug testing do, of course, involve humans.
But a shortage of human volunteers is not what slows them down.
So, while it's true that we will continue to need volunteers, having lots more of them won't make a jot of difference.
It's like saying that vaccine testing needs chairs (it presumably does- people seldom get injected while standing) so we should donate furniture to the cause.
Post by: acsinuk on 14/02/2021 16:10:26
Post by: acsinuk on 22/02/2021 12:17:07
The Diamond Princess showed that about 2700 people would die per million population which meant that of the UK's 66 million population, there would be 178 thousand deaths of mostly old and vulnerable people.
Did lockdowns help; well, not really just gave us a little more time to get the vaccines over the top tested and injected into the population . Next time, we should be very careful not to listen to panic reports, don't you think?
Post by: Bored chemist on 22/02/2021 13:06:41
We are doing well and should obtain herd immunity anytime soon. A lesson to learn though is that the Diamond Princess cruise ship showed us a year ago that only 12 in the 4500 passengers and crew died of the covid19 virus. So the wild report from World Health Organisation that the pandemic could kill up to 5% of the world population was incorrect.Are you an idiot?
The Diamond Princess showed that about 2700 people would die per million population which meant that of the UK's 66 million population, there would be 178 thousand deaths of mostly old and vulnerable people.
Did lockdowns help; well, not really just gave us a little more time to get the vaccines over the top tested and injected into the population . Next time, we should be very careful not to listen to panic reports, don't you think?
The reason that I ask is that you seem not to realise that the ship had a lockdown (with passengers comparing the situation to " a floating prison") which worked.
It reduced the death toll from about 5% to about 0.27%.
And yet you say that's a reason to believe that the 5% figure is wrong, and that lockdowns don't work.
Looking at the data on worldometer, I see that in the UK we have had about 120000 deaths and 2.5 million people recovered.
That's 4.8%.
Are you saying that the original WHO estimate of 5% is so badly wrong we should call it "wild".
I'd say it's pretty good.
Did lockdowns help; well, not really just gave us a little more timeThat's the whole point.
Since you don't seem to understand what the lockdown was for, perhaps you should stop trying to preach about it.
Next time, we should be very careful not to listen to panic reports, don't you think?I do think.
And it seems that next time we should listen to the science, but not to you.
Post by: evan_au on 23/02/2021 08:23:01
Quote from: acsinuk
Did lockdowns help; well, not really just gave us a little more timeI disagree. If lockdowns had been implemented properly (including quarantine for all international travellers), then it would have given us a lot more time!
- With effective quarantine, you don't need big lockdowns - 5 days to 2 weeks in regions of New Zealand
- It would have reduced the number of infected people by an order of magnitude (at least)
- It would have reduced the number of vaccine-resistant mutant strains by a factor of 10 (at least), ie from roughly 2 to perhaps 0 (or <0.2)
- That may have allowed widespread international travel to resume in 2022 for vaccinated travelers
As it is, there are mutant strains circulating that will require reformulation of vaccines, retesting, resubmission of approval paperwork and revaccination of the entire (world) population. And until that is complete, you will need repeated lockdowns as each resistant strain comes along, and starts to spread in the population.
Lockdowns are effective, if you stop new cases coming in from outside (ie quarantine)
- Without effective quarantine, you are sentencing the population to repeated lockdowns.
Post by: acsinuk on 24/02/2021 10:22:41
Easy, develop a vaccine immediately and authorise Emergency Use {EUA} and inject a few thousand over 80 year old volunteers who live in care homes where they can be carefully monitored by experts. If they survive then keep injecting population until you get herd immunity.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/02/2021 11:11:22
Your implication that Phase 1 volunteers are not "carefully monitored by experts" will be passed on to my colleagues who monitor Phase 1 trials and may respond to the insult.
There is no point in vaccinating those least likely to become infected, or indeed conducting any trial on the over-80's since the confounding comorbidities will degrade the statistics. The object of early trials is to establish safety and tolerability of the product among the target population, which in the case of an infectious disease should be those most likely to be exposed to it.
Herd immunity takes a very long time to acquire by Darwinian elimination, and is ethically unacceptable in a civilised society, which is why we have medicines. Imposition by mass vaccination demands proof of benefit/risk for the entire population at risk, so you need to cautiously extend your trial to include babies, pregnant women and all ethnic varieties and comorbidities, so you have to protect these groups (by quarantine - there is no other method) until you have demonstrated safety and efficacy and then produce enough vaccine to do the job.
Prevention is far better but demands an intelligent response
We have now had more than a year of good science and best practice being suppressed by greed, ignorance and (particularly in the USA) malice. I think the population has suffered enough of the kind of drivel that includes "Easy, develop a vaccine...".
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/02/2021 12:51:55
mutates hitting us in the future; so what to do?Learn the difference between a noun and a verb.
Easy, develop a vaccine immediately and authorise Emergency Use {EUA} and inject a few thousand over 80 year old volunteers who live in care homes where they can be carefully monitored by experts.Well, OK, let's imagine we do that.
And let's imagine that a virus pops up which is like the 1919 stain of flu.
We can test the vaccine in the over 80s and find that, though the side effects are rare they unfortunately cause more harm than the actual disease.
And we would, of course, on that basis not roll that vaccine out.
Meanwhile, those who aren't over 80 are dying in droves from a disease that (as with the 1919 strain of flu) affects the young, fit population more than the octogenarians.
If you have any other ideas like that, please feel free to keep them to yourself
Post by: charles1948 on 28/02/2021 20:01:30
Post by: alancalverd on 01/03/2021 18:32:21
Some people resent the skill and success of others, but society would be better off without such miserable failures so I'm happy to let them die, as long as they don't infect the rest of us.
Post by: acsinuk on 19/03/2021 19:21:53
The medical experts must notice this and include it in next years flu vaccine so we can stop its reappearance next year.
Untested vaccines must be offered to the over 80's first to prove efficiency before issuing a Emergency Use Authorisation with immediate effect. NO waiting , no lockdowns please!!
Post by: Bored chemist on 19/03/2021 19:38:24
The medical experts must notice this and include it in next years flu vaccineNonsense.
Post by: evan_au on 20/03/2021 00:43:13
Quote from: acsinuk
Ebola virus can be carried by people previously infected in west Africa.There are multiple strains of ebola. The virus can evade the immune system of patients previously infected with a different strain.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola#Recovery_and_death
Quote
Dakar has (an ebola) vaccine that will be effective in stopping it spreading worldwide.There is no point in running a Clinical Trial of ebola vaccines in UK aged-care homes. Because there is currently no ebola circulating in UK aged-care homes.
Untested vaccines must be offered to the over 80's first to prove efficiency
Even before a vaccine was available, an effective public health measure was applied which did prevent ebola spreading worldwide (including to UK aged-care homes): Quarantine.
- You stop passenger flights out of the affected area (quarantine the area)
- You prevent the public coming in contact with sick patients (quarantine the ill)
- Another measure, only applicable in this part of Africa: You halt the traditional ceremony of washing the dead body and have the mourners drink the water (quarantine the dead)
Now, if only various governments had applied this tried and tested public health measure to COVID-19, they could have got local infections under control (using contact tracing) without multiple lockdowns, and without introducing multiple new disease clusters from outside.
Post by: acsinuk on 22/03/2021 09:42:24
No, quarantine is totally and absolutely not acceptable as a permanent solution. We must obtain herd immunity.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/03/2021 10:26:14
Please include cost and benefit estimates for your solutions.
Post by: Bored chemist on 22/03/2021 14:10:46
No, quarantine is totally and absolutely not acceptable as a permanent solution.Who said it was?
The rest of us were thinking of it as a way to keep the death toll down until we had a vaccine.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/03/2021 16:43:53
Post by: evan_au on 23/03/2021 09:29:29
Quote from: acsinuk
no travelling... We must obtain herd immunity.I heard an infectious diseases specialist say that we have never achieved herd immunity by natural infection - it has only ever been achieved by vaccination.
- I guess when there is a low level of circulating disease, the pool of susceptible people gets very large.
- It only takes 1 infected person from outside (with no quarantine) to start another outbreak.
The other aspect of this is that, for travellers, you are not really safe unless the country you are visiting has also achieved herd immunity. That will take at least another year or two, in some parts of the world (even without new variants and waning immunity).
Quote from: acsinuk
when the Spanish arrived. Some books consider 75% of the (Incas) died of European diseases.I bet the Incas would have preferred that the Spanish invaders were permanently quarantined.
No, quarantine is totally and absolutely not acceptable as a permanent solution.
- But the Incas lacked the ability to enforce a quarantine on armoured soldiers equipped with guns.
- And the people of the day lacked the ability to develop a vaccine (and the Spanish had no incentive to develop a vaccine against the diseases they were carrying!)
But the Incas had some revenge: The Spanish carried syphilis back to Europe.
Are you suggesting that hospitals should open up their infectious diseases wards to the unprotected public?
- Isolation and quarantine have long been successful and economical practices in dealing with infectious diseases
- As part of a general public health system
- Why would you think that this had suddenly changed with COVID-19?
Post by: acsinuk on 23/03/2021 09:54:31
In the end the only safe way to protect us all is to obtain herd immunity by any and all means as quickly as possible.
However, lockdowns of general public are totally unnecessary and probably an infringement of our human rights as well.
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/03/2021 12:40:04
In the end the only safe way to protect us all is to obtain herd immunity by any and all means as quickly as possible.The quickest way to do achieve herd immunity is to deliberately infect everyone.
The only way(s) to do it involve infecting nearly everyone.
And you are calling that "safe"- which shows that you have no idea what you are saying and should be ignored.
The concepts of "safe" and "herd immunity" are mutually incompatible unless you can do it by vaccination.
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/03/2021 12:43:38
Infectious disease isolation wards are essential as a temporary stopgap measure only ,to allow a vaccine or anti-dote to be quickly developed and released for public use.And that's what we are doing.
Though the "ward" I am in is called "my house", which is handy for me, and cheaper for the NHS.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/03/2021 14:30:26
In the end the only safe way to protect us all isto quarantine the country until there are no new cases, and impose quarantine on all incoming travellers until the rest of the world is free from infection.
Post by: evan_au on 24/03/2021 10:01:39
Quote from: acsinuk
lockdowns of general public are totally unnecessary and probably an infringement of our human rightsI would say that a government policy of "nothing to worry about here, go about your normal business as usual" is extremely dangerous and definitely an infringement of the rights of the roughly 5% of people who would die because hospitals are overfull.
- This policy was promoted by Trump, Bolsonaro and (less vigorously) by Boris Johnson.
- It is a gross neglect of the government's duty of care for its citizens.
A better policy would be "We have a problem here, let's take sensible precautions to get it under control (and keep it under control)".
- If you don't take sensible precautions early, then you are left with more extreme measures like long lockdowns.
- And if you don't implement sensible precautions during and after the lockdown, you will be left feeling dizzy from the lockdown yo-yo.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/03/2021 10:16:00
lockdowns of general public are totally unnecessary and probably an infringement of our human rights as well.A bit like wartime curfew and blackout. The quickest way to end a war is to let the other side win, as is their human right.
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/03/2021 12:39:40
The quickest way to end a war is to let the other side win
Post by: charles1948 on 24/03/2021 20:25:18
It's a little irritating to have to acknowledge it, but I think Alan has pretty much nailed it here.The quickest way to end a war is to let the other side win
Absolutely - let the virus "win", in the sense of letting it do its worse and run through our population.
Heck - we've got a global population of over 7,000,000,000 humans!
Should such a huge number of humans be seriously inconvenienced by a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us! I bet our massive global birth-rate far exceeds the death-rate caused by this puny virus.
So let's get a sense of scientific perspective. Each individual death may be a personal tragedy. But as a species, can't we take it in our stride?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/03/2021 20:35:06
Should such a huge number of humans be seriously inconvenienced by a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us!It rather depends if you are part of the 1%.
It also depends on whether or not you can avoid it.
Post by: charles1948 on 24/03/2021 21:19:56
Should such a huge number of humans be seriously inconvenienced by a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us!It rather depends if you are part of the 1%.
It also depends on whether or not you can avoid it.
Even if you try to "avoid it" by taking a vaccine, the vaccine isn't more than 99 percent effective, so it still leaves you with a 1 percent risk of dying.
Which is the same risk you have, if you don't take the vaccine.
I
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/03/2021 21:57:51
Even if you try to "avoid it" by taking a vaccine, the vaccine isn't more than 99 percent effective, so it still leaves you with a 1 percent risk of dying.Are you being bad at maths, or bad at humour?
Post by: Kryptid on 24/03/2021 21:58:25
Even if you try to "avoid it" by taking a vaccine, the vaccine isn't more than 99 percent effective, so it still leaves you with a 1 percent risk of dying.
Which is the same risk you have, if you don't take the vaccine.
That isn't how the numbers work. A vaccine that is 99% effective would mean there is a 1% chance of getting sick upon exposure, not a 1% chance of dying after getting sick.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/03/2021 22:51:00
Even if you try to "avoid it" by taking a vaccine, the vaccine isn't more than 99 percent effective, so it still leaves you with a 1 percent risk of dying.Rubbish. Assume 99% effectiveness:
Which is the same risk you have, if you don't take the vaccine.
The known unprotected fatality rate is about 4% of those infected.
The vaccine-protected fatality rate is about 0.04% of those infected.
If almost everyone is vaccinated, the probability of being infected is about 1% of the raw figure, because 99% of the population will not be infectious, so the worst-case probability of dying from COVID is 0.0004%.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/03/2021 22:56:57
a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us!Currently, 4% of those infected, in the best available healthcare systems.
If we do nothing, everyone will eventually be infected, one in five will end up in hospital, and 1 in 25 will die from COVID after weeks or months in intensive care.
If you are happy to sustain an entirely avoidable 4% death rate rather than be inconvenienced, please think of your nearest and dearest 25 friends and family. Name the five that you would like to see seriously ill, and the one you want dead. Tell them.
Would you be happy to be named on someone else's death list?
Post by: charles1948 on 24/03/2021 23:43:44
a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us!Currently, 4% of those infected, in the best available healthcare systems.
If we do nothing, everyone will eventually be infected, one in five will end up in hospital, and 1 in 25 will die from COVID after weeks or months in intensive care.
If you are happy to sustain an entirely avoidable 4% death rate rather than be inconvenienced, please think of your nearest and dearest 25 friends and family. Name the five that you would like to see seriously ill, and the one you want dead. Tell them.
Would you be happy to be named on someone else's death list?
I don't like your emotive appeals about: "Who do you want to see dead"..
This is entirely false and beside the point. You might just as well say, that cars sometimes run over and kill people.
So if you own and drive a car - "Who do you want to see dead?"
Why don't we all stop driving cars then?
Covid-19 is a relatively mild virus that actually kills only a small percentage of the population. A far smaller percentage, I suspect, than all the cars, airplanes, trains, busses, and other mechanical and electrical devices have killed in the time since they were invented. So why don't we stop using all of them, because they sometimes kill
people?
And what about tobacco and alcohol. Don't these substances kill far more people every year, than CV-19? Why aren't they banned? Surely we could do it, if we really wanted to. But we don't. Apparently the deaths they cause are acceptable.
So I really can't understand the present hysterical attitude towards CV-19.
Post by: evan_au on 25/03/2021 01:47:04
Quote from: charles1948
I don't like your emotive appeals about: "Who do you want to see dead"..In Australia, population 25 million, the annual road toll is about 1200 (ie 1 in 2,000).
You might just as well say, that cars sometimes run over and kill people.
Covid-19 is a relatively mild virus that actually kills only a small percentage of the population.
- So the comparable statistic is "please think of your nearest and dearest 2,000 friends and family. Name the five that you would like to see seriously injured, and the one you want dead. Tell them."
- That's why car accidents (which are considered "normal", and pretty much ignored) is much less severe than a year of uncontrolled COVID-19, which is new, and not normalized.
Correction: "death toll" → "road toll". Sorry for the confusion....
Post by: Kryptid on 25/03/2021 05:26:19
Covid-19 is a relatively mild virus that actually kills only a small percentage of the population. A far smaller percentage, I suspect, than all the cars, airplanes, trains, busses, and other mechanical and electrical devices have killed in the time since they were invented. So why don't we stop using all of them, because they sometimes kill people?
Those technologies have benefits that are indispensable for modern society. We also actively work to make technologies safer over time. The benefit of COVID-19 that justifies allowing it to kill unabated is... what, exactly?
Why aren't they banned?
Alcohol was once banned in the United States. That didn't work out very well.
Apparently the deaths they cause are acceptable.
The risks associated with smoking are public knowledge. If a person smokes, they are knowingly putting themselves at risk for a shortened lifespan. Same thing for people who are chronic drunks (I don't know if people partaking in occasional social drinks have such a risk or not). Alcohol causing people other than the drunkard to die (such as with drunk driving) have laws designed to reduce its incidence.
Post by: Bored chemist on 25/03/2021 08:26:06
I don't like your emotive appeals about: "Who do you want to see dead"..It is unfortunate that you don't like the truth.
Covid-19 is a relatively mild virus that actually kills only a small percentage of the population. A far smaller percentage, I suspect, than all the cars, airplanes, trains, busses, and other mechanical and electrical devices have killed in the time since they were invented. So why don't we stop using all of them, because they sometimes killbecause there's a benefit to cars, but no benefit to covid.
people?
So I really can't understand the present hysterical attitude towards CV-19.It seems that either there is much that you don't understand, or you are trolling.
Post by: alancalverd on 25/03/2021 10:14:15
You might just as well say, that cars sometimes run over and kill people.Don't know about you, but I take care not to kill people with my car. Infectious diseases have no such scruples.
I'm not being emotive. If allowed to run riot, COVID will almost certainly hospitalise 5 of your nearest and dearest 25, and kill one. I'm offering you the opportunity to choose who, and tell them, thus substituting purpose and preparation for randomness.
Post by: charles1948 on 26/03/2021 19:35:22
You might just as well say, that cars sometimes run over and kill people.Don't know about you, but I take care not to kill people with my car. Infectious diseases have no such scruples.
I'm not being emotive. If allowed to run riot, COVID will almost certainly hospitalise 5 of your nearest and dearest 25, and kill one. I'm offering you the opportunity to choose who, and tell them, thus substituting purpose and preparation for randomness.
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?
We can easily absorb such a small loss. Your argument seems to be based entirely on appeals to the emotions.
Such as: "My grandfather died of Covid-19 at the age of 85. If he hadn't caught Covid, he might've lived another year. This was emotionally devastating to me."
Doesn't this smack of falsity? I mean all people die eventually. From old age. So why weep because it's from a virus?
And on the point about the cars, couldn't they be designed to be less liable to kill anyone.
By fitting each car with wide rubber bumpers, half a metre thick, all round the car. The impact-absorbing properties of such bumpers would surely reduce fatalities during collisions.
So why aren't cars fitted with them? Is it because we don't really care?
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/03/2021 19:44:41
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?You seem to think that, because everyone dies, we shouldn't try to prevent it.
Is that really your view?
Incidentally, it isn't right to say it "only kills 1 person out of 30".
It also maims a lot of people, and looking after them is very expensive.
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/03/2021 19:45:36
Your argument seems to be based entirely on appeals to the emotions.He didn't make that argument, did he?
Such as: "My grandfather died of Covid-19 at the age of 85.
That's just you setting up a straw man.
Don't do it again.
Post by: charles1948 on 26/03/2021 20:22:08
Don't do it again.
I might.
Post by: jeffreyH on 26/03/2021 21:58:52
You might just as well say, that cars sometimes run over and kill people.Don't know about you, but I take care not to kill people with my car. Infectious diseases have no such scruples.
I'm not being emotive. If allowed to run riot, COVID will almost certainly hospitalise 5 of your nearest and dearest 25, and kill one. I'm offering you the opportunity to choose who, and tell them, thus substituting purpose and preparation for randomness.
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?
We can easily absorb such a small loss. Your argument seems to be based entirely on appeals to the emotions.
Such as: "My grandfather died of Covid-19 at the age of 85. If he hadn't caught Covid, he might've lived another year. This was emotionally devastating to me."
Doesn't this smack of falsity? I mean all people die eventually. From old age. So why weep because it's from a virus?
And on the point about the cars, couldn't they be designed to be less liable to kill anyone.
By fitting each car with wide rubber bumpers, half a metre thick, all round the car. The impact-absorbing properties of such bumpers would surely reduce fatalities during collisions.
So why aren't cars fitted with them? Is it because we don't really care?
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?
Wow! Callous beyond belief.
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/03/2021 22:28:57
beyond belief.Quite; my guess is he's trolling.
Post by: charles1948 on 26/03/2021 23:18:11
beyond belief.Quite; my guess is he's trolling.
Just like you?
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/03/2021 23:28:36
No. The point about trolling is that you lie.beyond belief.Quite; my guess is he's trolling.
Just like you?
I don't.
Post by: evan_au on 27/03/2021 01:16:29
Quote from: charles1948
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?In a good year, a country's GDP will grow by perhaps 2-4%, or around 1 part in 30.
We can easily absorb such a small loss.
- If that varies by 1 part in 30, that is a big deal! Governments have been voted out for less.
- In economics, if a country's GDP growth is negative for 6 months, the country is in a recession
In 2020, nearly all countries were in recession, due to the impacts of COVID-19.
- See the world map here (and move the slider down the bottom from 2021 back to 2020): https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- Figures for 2021 and beyond are guesses, assuming that COVID-19 vaccines are deployed promptly, and manage to contain the variants
The US MAGA (slogan: "Make America Great Again!") ridiculed COVID-19 precautions, and went into the red.
- Ironically, China, (once they admitted they had a COVID-19 problem) took strenuous steps to control it, and was one of the few countries to show economic growth in 2020.
Post by: Colin2B on 27/03/2021 08:31:05
Or psychopathic - dehumanise people then it’s ok for them to die or be killed. Psychopaths also lie.beyond belief.Quite; my guess is he's trolling.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/03/2021 09:52:43
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?Not according to my figures, but your bizarre mathematics. 4% is 1 in 25 on my planet.
Quote
We can easily absorb such a small loss. Your argument seems to be based entirely on appeals to the emotions.I haven't made an argument, just asked you to answer a simple question based on observed facts, which you have refused to do. I therefore presume you are a politician. When those parasites say "we" they mean "you". You have refused to name 5 friends and relatives you want to hospitalise and the one you want dead from an entirely avoidable but untreatable cause. No emotion, just inconveniencing others for your own fun and profit.
Or do you mean that laying down your own life will benefit others? Disease doesn't work like that, and there's a big difference between a hero and an idiot.
.
Post by: acsinuk on 29/03/2021 10:31:22
The world is in need of a much more vicious pandemic than Covid 19 and we need to pray that God will save the planet?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/03/2021 11:06:28
What is needed is fewer babies, not more disabled people of working age.
There is no god. Or if there is, he invented malaria, trachoma and congenital syphilis, and is therefore despicable. May your prayers never be answered.
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/03/2021 11:18:11
we need to pray that God willJust have a quick look at the news over the last 2000 years or so.
God doesn't do what people pray for.
We don't need an outbreak of some plague; we need an outbreak of common sense.
And religion opposes that.
People who have been brainwashed into thinking that there was a virgin birth and that slavery and bigotry are "good things" are being led down the path of failing to think things through.
Post by: CliffordK on 29/03/2021 17:08:56
a virus that causes a mortality rate of less than 1 percent of us!Currently, 4% of those infected, in the best available healthcare systems.
There are different "fatality rates"
Case Fatality Rate
Infection Fatality Rate
The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is simply numerator of those that died vs denominator those that have been diagnosed with the disease.
The problem is that we know that there are an awful lot of people that never bothered to get tested, or had extremely mild symptoms.
So, if one takes the number that have died of COVID divided by a mythical number of the total infected, one gets an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).
We know that at least in the first wave last spring, hardly anybody was tested, so we were seeing huge case fatality rates.
Overall, countries are still varying significantly.
USA, 30 Million cases, 549K documented deaths ==> less than 2% CFR
UK, 4.3 Million cases, 127K deaths ==> 3% CFR
Thailand, 28,773 cases, 94 deaths ==> 0.32% CFR
New Zealand, 2,493 cases, 26 deaths ==> 1.04% CFR
Looking at New Zealand more, excluding the early cases. On June 1, 1,504 cases, 22 deaths.
Today, 2,493 cases, 26 deaths. So, in the last 989 cases there have been 4 deaths. Or about a 0.4% CFR. Pushing the statistics a bit, but in line with the Thailand numbers.
I like to use about 1% as the infection fatality rate, but it is likely closer to the 0.3% to 0.4% seen in Thailand and New Zealand.
Of course WHO gets infected can throw those numbers around a lot. So, if we get a bunch of teenagers and college students with a low mortality rate getting infected, while the elderly and frail are able to effectively stay isolated, then that could skew it to lower numbers. Even if those who get infected are reasonably healthy business travelers while the frail elderly are protected, that would skew to lower numbers.
On the other hand, if the disease blasts through nursing homes, hospitals, and elderly care centers, that could artificially raise the numbers.
One might be able to improve the calculations by looking at the IFR for each age group and then calculating it for the population as a whole.
Anyway, ideally one would have about the 0.3% to 0.4% IFR, but a real world estimate of about 1% is easier to calculate in one's head.
The corollary, of course, is that if the USA has 549K deaths, we've likely had somewhere between 50 million people infected and 150 million people infected. So, somewhere between 1/6 of the population and 1/2 of the population.
The UK with 127K deaths likely has had between 12 million and 35 million cases, again somewhere between 1/6 and 1/2 of the population.
Of course the disease isn't hitting age groups and locations equally. So some cities might hit the "herd immunity" while others might still have most of the population vulnerable.
Post by: CliffordK on 29/03/2021 18:08:40
I really wish we had gotten a vaccine out by last fall.
Comparing this to the 2009 Swine Flu, the virus was first isolated in April. On September 15, the US CDC approved the vaccine. And by October 5, vaccination was begun. So, from disease to vaccine was about 6 months.
For COVID, I think part of the problem was jumping from lab testing and low production of mRNA and adenovirus vector vaccines to mainstream use. So future vaccines will already have that groundwork completed.
Fortunately development was well underway for SARS/MERS vaccines, and that framework transferred over to COVID. But, we have a canine enteric coronavirus vaccine, but no canine kennel cough coronavirus vaccine, perhaps in part due to different lethality. Nonetheless, there would have been a valid concern for an effective respiratory vaccine.
By last summer, we were already getting safety and dosing studies completed. By that time we also knew that the vaccine candidates were generating a robust immune response.
I believe at that time the governments should have supported full production early. Have a sliding scale, of say $10 per dose no matter what. $20 per dose following EUA. A few doses in the garbage bin would have been worth hundreds of thousands of deaths, and economic hardships extending well into the second year.
People also like the 90+% effective vaccines, but even a 50% effective vaccine would have knocked down the virus. And, really the critical issue is keeping people out of longterm hospital care and preventing deaths, which all the current vaccines seem to be very effective at doing.
So, could we have distributed the vaccine once a robust immune response was documented?
Of course, the big risk is to make things much worse. We know some of the risk of lethality is the immune response (and thus steroids help treatment). But, a negative potentiation effect doesn't seem common with vaccines.
As far as the next gen vaccines, I would like to see a cocktail vaccine. Pick out 3 or 4 of the most important spike proteins and build a cocktail. If the cocktail contains the original spike, then it likely could jump ahead of most of the efficacy studies, and simply require a safety and dosing study.
Second booster with the cocktail?
Or, perhaps start production as soon as we start winding down this current vaccine production to have the new cocktail ready for this fall.
While there is no substitute for a good placebo controlled study, one can also do a "standard of care" controlled study. So, give 1 million people the new cocktail, and 1 million the old vaccine, and compare the two without giving anybody placebo doses (or a small group of placebo doses).
And, we need to figure out how to get the doses made and distributed.
3 BILLION doses? 10 BILLION doses? No single manufacturer has the capacity. We need a global production and licensing effort. Accept government licensing and contracts or EUA authorizations, and a company will also have to accept licensing contracts. No licensing, and no government support, and back on the slow road to development.
Post by: acsinuk on 09/04/2021 12:44:26
This living in fear is unnecessary and mentally damaging. For ever and a day we have had viruses and pandemics but it is for God to decide who lives and who dies not panicking politicians. It is our right to lead normal active lives , free of fear and as in the past we must all in the end obtain natural herd immunity.
If medico's can assist with vaccines then all to the good but lockdowns are no good as everyone must be herd immune in the end.
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/04/2021 12:53:11
it is for God to decide who lives and who diesIf that's true, then He will. He is, after all, God. That's kind of the point of being God- you get what you want.
So your own ideas make your post irrelevant.
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/04/2021 13:01:57
If medico's can assist with vaccines then all to the good but lockdowns are no good as everyone must be herd immune in the end.You do not seem to understand what "herd immunity" means.
The version put forward by lazy politicians says that we hide all the vulnerable people away for a while, and let the virus rip through those who will not be harmed by it.
However, we do not actually have a mechanism for identifying those people.
Imagine, for a moment that someone came up with a test to see who is susceptible.
And we took all those people and isolated them.
And then we shot them all, or, at least the vast majority of them.
Would that be the right thing to do?
Post by: alancalverd on 09/04/2021 23:53:03
it is for God to decide who lives and who dies....thus saving the taxpayer vast sums of money wasted on road safety, clean water, fire, police and ambulance services....all of which are blasphemous at best and sinful at worst..
Post by: acsinuk on 14/04/2021 17:48:36
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/04/2021 17:51:44
My point is we cannot stop the mutation of new variants or new viruses. Medico's must respond immediately but the risk of infection to vulnerable people will always be there until everyone in the whole world has been exposed to the virus and their immune system overcome the infection thus global herd immunity is achieved. . We must not live in a world full of fear and enforced isolation. We want freedom as a personal right.You forgot to answer this, which is a pity because it's relevant.
Imagine, for a moment that someone came up with a test to see who is susceptible.
And we took all those people and isolated them.
And then we shot them all, or, at least the vast majority of them.
Would that be the right thing to do?
Post by: charles1948 on 14/04/2021 18:17:06
If medico's can assist with vaccines then all to the good but lockdowns are no good as everyone must be herd immune in the end.You do not seem to understand what "herd immunity" means.
The version put forward by lazy politicians says that we hide all the vulnerable people away for a while, and let the virus rip through those who will not be harmed by it.
However, we do not actually have a mechanism for identifying those people.
Imagine, for a moment that someone came up with a test to see who is susceptible.
And we took all those people and isolated them.
And then we shot them all, or, at least the vast majority of them.
Would that be the right thing to do?
That reminds me of the H.G Wells' movie "Things to Come". In it, people were afflicted by a new plague called, I think, the "Wandering Sickness". This made people stop whatever they were doing and walk about in a wandering zombie-like manner, spreading the plague.
To combat this, one of the main characters in the movie, who was called I think "The Boss" issued a general order to all citizens , that anyone spotted exhibiting such symptoms should be immediately shot.
This successfully expunged the plague.
Post by: alancalverd on 15/04/2021 00:01:50
Medico's must respond immediately but the risk of infection to vulnerable people will always be there until everyone in the whole world has been exposed to the virus and their immune system overcome the infection thus global herd immunity is achievedLike ebola, eh? Or polio, or smallpox, perhaps? Measles, mumps, rubella, diphtheria, typhoid, tetanus, cholera?
Are you hoping to be the next Tory Health Secretary, by any chance? (I doubt it - you seem to be literate).
Post by: evan_au on 15/04/2021 10:00:52
Quote from: acsinuk
we cannot stop the mutation of new variantsWe can certainly slow down the generation of new variants by reducing the raging number of active cases.
- By the usual methods of masks, social distancing, contact tracing and quarantine.
- But some countries are happy to let the variants multiply, under the delusion that this will improve the economy
Quote from: Apologies to Mao
Let a hundred variants bloom
Quote
We want freedom as a personal right.You may plead for illness and death for yourself.
- But if you are in a hospital ICU, gasping for breath, I am sure your priorities will change
- And if you are unable to get into a hospital ICU because it is already full, I am sure that will also change your perspective
But those who want death and illness for others aren't treated with much respect
- If they are elected politicians, they are likely to suffer at the next poll
Post by: alancalverd on 15/04/2021 11:59:46
But those who want death and illness for others aren't treated with much respectLet's discuss this after the next elections! My money is on the UK's corrupt and incompetent mass murderers getting safely re-elected because the alternative is SOCIALISM in England, UNION in Scotland, or NATIONALISM in Northern Ireland. Bogey words mean more than common sense.
- If they are elected politicians, they are likely to suffer at the next poll
Post by: acsinuk on 19/04/2021 10:33:00
Imagine, for a moment that someone came up with a test to see who is susceptible.
And we took all those people and isolated them.
And then we shot them all, or, at least the vast majority of them.
Would that be the right thing to do?
Well, that would solve the worlds over population and climate change problems but is an over the top measure as the cruise ship Diamond Princess found about 20% were infected but only 0.3% died
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
The fact is that if only 0.3% of the population, mostly elderly people will die and not the 5% predicted by WHO
But we must have a vaccine quickly to inject into NHS staff and emergency/council/supermarket workers to protect them whilst the rest of us voluntarily will avoid close contact with others. No dragonian lockdowns or testing are needed.
Post by: Bored chemist on 19/04/2021 11:02:37
Quote from: Bored chemist on 09/04/2021 13:01:57By "susceptible", I meant those who would actually die.
Imagine, for a moment that someone came up with a test to see who is susceptible.
And we took all those people and isolated them.
And then we shot them all, or, at least the vast majority of them.
Would that be the right thing to do?
Well, that would solve the worlds over population and climate change problems but is an over the top measure as the cruise ship Diamond Princess found about 20% were infected but only 0.3% died
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_Diamond_Princess
The fact is that if only 0.3% of the population, mostly elderly people will die and not the 5% predicted by WHO
But we must have a vaccine quickly to inject into NHS staff and emergency/council/supermarket workers to protect them whilst the rest of us voluntarily will avoid close contact with others. No dragonian lockdowns or testing are needed.
Do you think it would have been acceptable identify them and then, to line them up and shoot them?
Post by: acsinuk on 28/04/2021 16:05:28
Look at the stats https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/
Notice that the countries with civil wars and unrest are over populating as they need peace and not military regimes.
India has a population of 1.3 billion 20 times that of UK so even if they loose 20,000 people a day that would percentage wise be less severe that us loosing a thousand a day.
People should just accept that pandemics are serious and not the governments fault.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/04/2021 16:33:28
Countries have no importance in geography, physics or epidemiology- they are defined by arbitrary political boundaries that are not recognised by any other species or phenomenon. The population density of SIngapore is 20 times that of India and of India, only 1.4 times that of the UK. Is Singapore overpopulated?
However pandemics are definitely the fault of government. You can choose to control an infectious disease like ebola, or eradicate a disease like smallpox, or ignore a crippling and occasionally deadly disease like COVID because it would be Bad for the Economy to impose quarantine for a couple of weeks. The fact that Singapore has only 0.3% of the population infected, against 6.6% of the UK, suggests that the blend of malice, corruption and incompetence that defines British government, has a lot to do with it.
Post by: Bored chemist on 28/04/2021 17:48:42
Do you think it would have been acceptable identify them and then, to line them up and shoot them?
No,Then why do you think it acceptable to kill them with a virus?
Because that's what you are proposing every time you talk about "herd immunity"- whether you use the term or not.
People should just accept that pandemics are serious and not the governments fault.I don't think anyone (not even Jolly) has accused Boris and his friends of genetically engineering and releasing covid.
So nobody is saying that pandemics are the government's fault.
That would be silly.
What people are saying, because that's what the evidence shows, is that a government decision to not maintain stocks of PPE etc was a bad decision, and one for which they are entirely to blame.
Boris walking round a hospital shaking hands with patients is clearly Boris' fault.
Boris deciding that maintaining lockdown over Xmas would be too unpopular- even though the scientists told him it was the sensible policy- was clearly Boris' fault.
And the spike in deaths that resulted directly from that decision are down to the government.
Post by: alancalverd on 28/04/2021 20:06:59
Post by: Bored chemist on 28/04/2021 20:45:09
Who signed the order to discharge infectious patients into nursing homes?Boris either signed it, or appointed the person who signed it.
Post by: CliffordK on 29/04/2021 03:45:20
How do you intend to obtain herd immunity from ebola? Or malaria? These diseases are endemic in wildlife.Malaria is a Human-Only disease. There are no other hosts. Mosquitoes simply spread the disease, but the entire reproductive cycle of the Malaria Plasmodium Protozoa is in humans.
It is interesting that the human immune system can clear the disease, but at the moment can't prevent re-infection. Yet, people that survive in Malaria endemic areas develop enough immunity that they typically only develop mild disease.
If one could develop a vaccine booster that was good for say 6 months, and could vaccinate the entire human population in a region, the disease could be locally eradicated by interrupting the reproductive/infection cycle.
Post by: acsinuk on 23/05/2021 10:33:13
Could it be that people that have been vaccinated are able to test positive although not be infectious to other people as they pass on the immunity the vaccine has given them.?
It could be we should stop testing, except for foreign travel, as the results could be misleading
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/05/2021 11:03:58
they pass on the immunity the vaccine has given them.?That's impossible.
It could be we should stop testing, except for foreign travel, as the results could be misleadingDid anyone mention to you that this is a science forum?
Post by: evan_au on 24/05/2021 10:56:30
Quote from: ascinuk
Could it be that people that have been vaccinated are able to test positive although not be infectious to other people as they pass on the immunity the vaccine has given them.?Recent tests have shown that mothers who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 pass on immunity to their infants via breastmilk. So, yes, it is possible to "pass on" immunity while breastfeeding.
- Unfortunately, this technique is not scalable to the general population...
I have heard some figures that suggest a vaccine with 90% efficacy at preventing COVID-19 infection (eg the mRNA vaccines) reduces the viral load significantly, and approximately halves the number of people who will be infected if a vaccinated person does come down with COVID-19.
- So one person being vaccinated does reduce the risk for unvaccinated people (provided the unvaccinated people only come into contact with vaccinated people)
- But in reality, unvaccinated people come into contact with a lot of unvaccinated people, allowing the virus to continue spreading through the community.
- It is estimated that with current vaccines, we need to reach something like 80-90% vaccination rates to inhibit spread of the Indian variants and allow a return to pre-COVID "normal".
Post by: CliffordK on 24/05/2021 12:13:42
Recent tests have shown that mothers who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 pass on immunity to their infants via breastmilk. So, yes, it is possible to "pass on" immunity while breastfeeding.
The immunoglobulins passed in milk, and in particular the early milk, colostrum, are transient in nature, and only last for a few weeks or months after lactation finishes.
I'm seeing notes of "shaping an infant's immunity", but it will take more research to indicate what lasting effects it has.
Post by: acsinuk on 06/06/2021 12:05:06
Governments are not responsible for stopping variants or second guessing what will happen next. There are plenty of pseudo experts to forecast imminent doom and plenty of Health and Safety scare mongers to back up their unproven claims.
No more lockdowns please, unless the NHS can prove they are out of intensive care beds in which case some localised voluntary restrictions may be necessary.
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/06/2021 13:24:22
Governments are not responsible for stopping variantsYes they are.Who else would be?
Post by: alancalverd on 06/06/2021 15:37:14
An immediate lockdown with mandatory quarantine for all incoming travellers could have been implemented in December 2019 - January 2020 at a treasury cost of about £10,000,000, resulting in maybe 500 hospitalisations and not more than 100 deaths. SIngapore: 30 deaths to date,with a much higher population density and shorter lead time than the UK.
Chris Whitty said, in his first COVID press conference, "If people ask what all the fuss was about, we will have got it right". They clearly haven't.
Journalists comparing the UK response with the USA, Brazil or Italy, is as useful as comparing Arsenal with your local factory team. If Man U/Singapore can do it, so should Arsenal/UK.
Post by: acsinuk on 14/06/2021 10:52:51
Governments are not responsible for stopping variants or second guessing what will happen next. There are plenty of pseudo experts to forecast imminent doom and plenty of Health and Safety scare mongers to back up their unproven claims.
China and the US are not lockdown nationally, so unless the NHS can prove they are out of intensive care beds in which case some localised voluntary restrictions may be necessary we should get back normal life and let our children be properly educated with their own peer groups not isolated at home with mum. No nanny state nonsense please..
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/06/2021 11:53:09
Governments are not responsible for stopping variants or second guessing what will happen next.Yes they are.
If not them, then who is?
There are plenty of pseudo experts to forecast imminent doom and plenty of Health and Safety scare mongers to back up their unproven claims.Get a mirror; you are a pseudo expert making an unproven claim.
No nanny state nonsense please..Indeed; please stop the nonsense of calling this a nanny state,
Post by: acsinuk on 14/06/2021 18:59:12
The 2 metre rule has then been replaced by a one metre rule. This is hugely significant to theatres, pubs, cafes and sports arenas etc as at least we can double the amount of people that can meet in a restricted area.
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/06/2021 19:22:51
The 2 metre rule has then been replaced by a one metre rule.Really?
Post by: evan_au on 14/06/2021 22:44:43
Quote from: acsinuk
Governments are not responsible for stopping variantsIt appears that the UK restrictions will continue for another couple of weeks, because the government didn't think it was responsible for controlling variants either.
- And now the Delta variant is out of control (surprise!)
- There wasn't much they could do about the Kent variant - it was first discovered in the UK
- But other variants could have been kept out with quarantine measures
- Or is the UK more closely tied to Europe than Boris wants to admit?
In implementing a policy of minimising economic disruption, the government has increased economic disruption - a classic policy backfire.
- While the voters may be impressed by policy speeches, viruses just ignore them...
I feel sorry for people in the UK - but you are still better off than the USA was last year...
- At least the UK has a public health system, regardless of what you think of it!
Post by: alancalverd on 14/06/2021 22:55:29
The 2 metre rule has then been replaced by a one metre rule. This is hugely significant to theatres, pubs, cafes and sports arenas etc as at least we can double the amount of people that can meet in a restricted area.quadruple. Doom.
Post by: alancalverd on 14/06/2021 23:00:14
Or is the UK more closely tied to Europe than Boris wants to admit?The delta variant was identified in India, and was notified to WHO as spreading very rapidly. The corrupt, incompetent scum who govern this country politely offered all potential Tory voters of Indian descent two weeks to return home without quarantine before putting up the shutters. Not sure what the EU did, but it can't have been more stupid or dangerous, surely?
Post by: vhfpmr on 15/06/2021 12:43:00
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000wytt
Post by: alancalverd on 15/06/2021 13:44:32
Alan, if the Covid-19 virus only kills 1 person out of 30, according to your figures, what's the big deal?1 in 25, not 30. As the "5 or less" checkout girl said to the man with 10 items "Are you from MIT and can't read, or from Harvard and can't count?"
Cars only kill one person in 25,000 each year. What's the big deal?
Anyway it seems that you have nominated your grandad for an early, painful, protracted and entirely avoidable death. Have you told him?
Post by: acsinuk on 23/06/2021 09:52:03
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/06/2021 12:23:41
In H.G.Wells, "War of the Worlds", the aliens all died of a common cold!!!It's not really specified what microbes killed them.
Wells couldn't have blamed a virus since those were unknown when he wrote the book.
Could it be our governments wearing a Health and Safety hat, are vaccinating us all into oblivion by refusing to let us build up our own immunity to flu and colds ??No
Nobody is going to vaccinate us into oblivion.
Your idea is silly because you don't seem to realise that the immune system that responds to the virus is the same as the one that responds to the vaccine.
That's why the vaccine often lays people low for a day or two.
Pleas try thinking things through before posting them
Post by: alancalverd on 23/06/2021 23:15:23
refusing to let us build up our own immunity to flu and colds ??Vaccination is still voluntary. If you want to build up your own immunity by doing nothing, feel free to do so.
Post by: acsinuk on 28/06/2021 13:51:39
I would prefer to have 1 metre separation to start to get back to normal thus getting cinemas and trains half full again.
CliveS
Post by: alancalverd on 28/06/2021 18:41:58
Post by: acsinuk on 06/07/2021 20:11:04
Best thing is to stop testing everywhere except hospitals; as it is expensive and not beneficial to anyone
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/07/2021 20:21:06
At the moment the pharma industries are scaring everyone into believing that the latest Covid variant could develop into something big when most people just notice it as a common cold.So, you don't understand that things change with time.
Do you not find that to be a problem?
Post by: evan_au on 06/07/2021 23:04:56
Quote from: acsinuk
Best thing is to stop testing everywhere except hospitals; as it is expensive and not beneficial to anyoneAt present, where I live (Sydney) is in a "lockdown lite", caused by an outbreak of Delta variant. This was introduced via a man who drives international air crew to their hotels.
The government is trying to quell this outbreak by encouraging everyone to get tested, with even the mildest symptoms.
- Finding all infected people is the only way for contact tracers to detect all chains of transmission, and ensure that all contacts are in isolation before they become infectious.
- That is tough, because perhaps half of all infections are asymptomatic.
- In a city of 4 million people, there were 32,321 tests yesterday, ie almost almost 1% of the population, every day (and 45,000 for the subsequent day).
- It is vital to get this outbreak under control, because Australia has very low rates of vaccination (around 8%, not the 80%+ that you need for herd immunity against Delta variant).
acsinuk sounds like he & Boris are vaccinated - too bad about the rest!
Post by: alancalverd on 07/07/2021 01:11:04
Best thing is to stop testing everywhere except hospitals; as it is expensive and not beneficial to anyoneTesting arriving travellers is essential for as long as there is a pool of infection "out there". I have been working on a $1 3-minute breath test for live virus which should catch potential spreaders before they board a plane and infect 200 others: watch out for "CoronaCheck" (probably not the final brand name, and others may well be available) arriving on the market later this year.
With around 15,000 new cases a day in the UK, and deaths beginning to accelerate, we can only expect more avoidable aggravation when our corrupt government declares "freedom" to infect each other again. We did not "learn to live with" polio, diphtheria, cholera, bubonic plague or smallpox; why should we tolerate this obnoxious and avoidable disease?
Post by: acsinuk on 07/07/2021 08:56:29
We cannot live our lives in a state of fear all the time and suppress our children's education and economic prospects for ever while you mess about perfecting a vaccine.
Post by: evan_au on 07/07/2021 09:22:28
Quote from: acsinuk
while you mess about perfecting a vaccineI think the vaccines were pretty much perfected 6 months ago - as evidenced by their approval by FDA and other regulatory bodies.
- The effectiveness of the clinical trials was shown by the lack of side-effects that could be picked up in a trial of nx30,000 participants
- And subsequent close monitoring has picked up some rare events (clotting) at the level of cases per 100,000 (and carditis at even lower levels)
- This extreme level of scrutiny during the mass rollout has not been exercised for any previous medication (or any previous food or herbal remedy)
So you would have to say that the vaccines are pretty much perfected (as far as any medication can be) - for the original Wuhan strain
Now they just need to do it again for the Delta variant (and any other severe variants that pop up)
- But it should be easier the next time around..
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/07/2021 09:50:14
But is the virus that affects most people like a common cold avoidable?Yes.
You vaccinate everybody (or, at least, the great majority).
And the NHS is well on the way to doing that.
Boris has decided to reward them with a smaller pay cut than the rest of the public sector (apart from MPs that is).
Boris has a clear incentive not to control the virus too well.
At the moment he can blame covid for some of the economic crash he caused by bringing in Brexit.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/07/2021 11:05:24
At the moment he can blame covid for some of the economic crash he caused by bringing in Brexit....and not handling COVID properly. Can't blame him for making a pig's ear of the public's wishes (that's just incompetence), but nobody voted for COVID.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/07/2021 11:11:17
But is the virus that affects most people like a common cold avoidable? and how do we tell the difference?
We cannot live our lives in a state of fear all the time and suppress our children's education and economic prospects for ever while you mess about perfecting a vaccine.
It's preventable by having a proper short-term national quarantine and absolute border controls. Problem is that these require competent and relatively incorrupt government. Telling everyone that they have 14 days' grace to get back from a major epidemic center like India without quarantine is electioneering, not public protection, and has buggered the economy of the Manchester area.
Never mind "most people", some 10% suffer longterm disability and 2 - 4% actually die unnecessarily: the health social and economic consequences of not taking preventive action are (as we have seen) horrendous.
How to tell the difference? See reply #101.
The way to abolish fear is to abolish the cause of fear, not tell people to "live with it".
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/07/2021 16:07:27
Can't blame him for making a pig's ear of the public's wishes (that's just incompetence)Competence would have meant telling the public the truth, and he's not good at that.
He certainly wasn't going to tell them that they couldn't have Schrodinger's border or that leaving the EU would crash the economy.
They will find out anyway, but by playing this game, he can blame covid for the financial / employment problems.
He's really not a very nice man.
Telling everyone that they have 14 days' grace to get back from a major epidemic center like India without quarantine is electioneering,No, that's trying to get a trade deal with India - because you threw away the old one and lied about having an "oven ready" replacement.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/07/2021 16:15:08
Competence would have meant telling the public the truth, and he's not good at that.He's a politician. Telling the truth isn't in the job description. But ignoring the bloody obvious is inexcusable, and discharging infectious patients into nursing homes is criminal.
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/07/2021 17:47:19
That's the man who was elected to "take back control of the borders".
And the reason he did it wasn't electioneering- it can't have been- because he wasn't up for election at the time.
He did it in order not to mess up his trip to India to discuss a trade deal with the Indian PM.
And he shouldn't have had to do that; we had a perfectly good deal with them.
The reason for it was brexit.
Brexit is directly responsible for 95% of the covid cases in this country at the moment.
And, since it was brought about by liars, those liars should- as you imply- be held responsible for their criminal acts.
Post by: alancalverd on 07/07/2021 23:32:01
The current wave of covid seems to have come, as you say, from India. I don't think the returning holidaymakers of Bolton were much involved with trade discussions at the time, or that the Indian government, beset with its own epidemic, was much concerned about the UK sausage trade, spurious litigation against Astra Zeneca Belgium, the operating losses of Eurotunnel, or any of the other ramifications of Brexit. Utter failure of border control, and putting the interests of brewery shareholders above public safety, have now led to some 32,000 new cases per day, with the number increasing each day despite the best efforts of the pharmaceutical industry.
Until the end of May, COVID deaths in the UK, France and Italy were of similar proportions. It would be difficult to establish a logical connection between the political events of January 2020, which involved the entire UK, and a spike in COVID infections specifically in the Manchester area 18 months later, in any rational mind.
Post by: Bored chemist on 08/07/2021 08:59:14
I don't think the returning holidaymakers of Bolton were much involved with trade discussions at the timeHad anyone said they were, or was that just an attempt at distraction?
don't think ... or that the Indian government, beset with its own epidemic, was much concerned about the UK sausage trade,
Oddly, the Indian govt seemed to think otherwise, and I guess they would know
It was widely reported.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/19/boris-johnson-cancels-india-trade-trip-covid-situation
If Boris has been interested in getting the votes from people of immigrant descent (Indian or otherwise) descent, he would have found a fridge to put Priti Patel in, rather than letting her denounce the idea of immigration.
Here's another mechanism for brexit to kill people
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57753277
We will certainly need to test some new vaccines if the world doesn't get covid under a lot better control.
Boris seems to be on covid's side rather than humanity's.
Perhaps the best covid control at the moment would be a new government or two.
Post by: alancalverd on 08/07/2021 11:11:02
Who knows, this might even trickle down to the backbench knuckledraggers who want the freedom to infect others, because that upstart Jenner was, after all, educated at St Andrews and probably never had intercourse with his intellectual superiors.
Post by: alancalverd on 08/07/2021 11:55:49
Boris cancelling his trip and picking up the phone, is the first indication that the Chief Pigshagger has adapted his business practices to the 19th century.
And just to prove how up-to-date World Beating Britain is, here., according to the Daily Mail, is what happened when a flight diverted for a medical emergency yesterday
Quote
The aircraft was met by emergency services upon landing in Edinburgh and the passenger was taken off the plane by a sedan chair.
Why no hackney carriage? Because those infernal Wright flying machines scare the horses, of course!
Post by: acsinuk on 12/07/2021 22:12:31
Draconian restrictions are out but voluntary common sense measures should be taken by people that feel vulnerable or at risk; which in my view was the attitude the government should have taken from the very beginning
Post by: Bored chemist on 12/07/2021 22:36:02
At last human rights are returning to BritainThe right to spread death?
Have you seen the infection rates?
Boris is selling a lie that people are not ending up in hospital.
They are, fewer than before there was a vaccine, but that's not the point.
He is still killing people.
Post by: alancalverd on 13/07/2021 09:34:27
voluntary common sense measuresThe only common sense measure is to avoid contact with anyone not recently confirmed negative. No idea how you can do that and lead a normal life.
Post by: acsinuk on 16/07/2021 12:33:48
But if the checkin desk official thinks the passenger looks sick or unwell then I assume the management have the right or option to ask the passenger to take a covid test at no cost to the passenger and if it is positive then insist they rebook a week later flight at no cost to the passenger.
But what if you are returning from holiday and out of money?? Where will you stay and who will pay??
Post by: Bored chemist on 16/07/2021 12:40:47
who will pay??It's 2021.
That's part of the cost of a holiday, so you pay it.
If you have any sense you will spread the risk via insurance.
Post by: evan_au on 17/07/2021 02:13:52
Quote from: acsinuk
Draconian restrictions are out but voluntary common sense measures should be taken by people that feel vulnerable or at risk...and also those that feel that they have a duty of care.
- I understand that the London underground will continue to insist on masks, as that enclosed environment carries a major risk for infection of both passengers and staff. It is up to the Mayor of London to impose this restriction, so Boris doesn't look like the bad boy any longer.
This will result in a patchwork of regulations which will confuse the public even more than they are already.
- A similar deregulation was done recently in the Netherlands; restrictions have now been re-imposed after a spike in cases there
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/07/2021 15:34:46
voluntary common sense measures should be taken by people that feel vulnerable or at riskBut the precautions that actually work; wearing a mask and not going out if you are ill are not something that are in the control of the people who are at risk, are they?
Also, re "common sense":
This is the level of common sense we are talking about.
(And if you don't want to see man with a smoke flare in his back passage, don't look at the video.)
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/preview/mol/2021/07/12/4603711667086053302/636x382_MP4_4603711667086053302.mp4
If the risk was only to the idiots then you could just shrug and say it's evolution in action.
But, in this case, the morons are typically young enough to be more or less immune to serious harm from the virus.
But they spread it, recklessly, to others who are at grave risk.
Post by: alancalverd on 17/07/2021 16:05:30
All thanks to government ineptitude. Latest stats, with 80,000,000 vaccines delivered, show 48,000 new cases a day. Compare with Australia, one third of the population, with only 9,000,000 vaccinations: 100 cases per day. The difference: quarantine.
Vaccination sometimes works but doesn't prevent mutation or protect effectively against mutants. Quarantine always works and prevents mutants spreading.
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/07/2021 16:18:22
Boris doesn't look like the bad boy any longer.Boris can't really blame anyone else for this
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Post by: alancalverd on 17/07/2021 16:28:23
But if the checkin desk official thinks the passenger looks sick or unwell then I assume the management have the right or option to ask the passenger to take a covid test at no cost to the passenger and if it is positive then insist they rebook a week later flight at no cost to the passenger.
But what if you are returning from holiday and out of money?? Where will you stay and who will pay??
It has been the rule in all forms of public transport since the stagecoach, that the captain has the absolute right to refuse to carry any passenger who he thinks may endanger, inconvenience or infect others, without compensation. For the sake of efficiency this has been delegated to checkin personnel, train guards, etc., who carry the same absolute authority, and in many cases where the passenger's condition is temporary and involuntary, compensation is offered as a gesture of goodwill.
There may be plenty of goodwill around nowadays. Southend Airport usually handles some 650,000 passengers between January and July: this year, they handled just 550, but still have to pay the rent, fire crew, traffic controllers, security.....so they are offering flying schools "five landings for a fiver" just to keep the place ticking over between cargo flights.
Post by: acsinuk on 19/07/2021 15:58:03
These voluntary actions to protect our selves and others are totally and absolutely necessary but they are not compulsory any more which is a huge leap forward in getting our lives back to normal.
No-one in NHS can guarantee you will be alive tomorrow.!. Living at all is a risk !! Everyone has to die sometime!!!.
Post by: Bored chemist on 19/07/2021 16:23:11
Everyone has to die sometime!!!.Yes, but most of us would prefer to postpone it.
Post by: Bored chemist on 19/07/2021 16:24:05
Boris did not say that we should not bother to self isolate if we are feeling unwell, or think we may be infectious.What Boris said was that he had been round a hospital, shaking hands with patients.
Post by: alancalverd on 20/07/2021 00:28:02
Living at all is a risk !! Everyone has to die sometime!!!.I have asked you several times to name those of your family and friends who you wish to become infected. You have never answered, so I assume that you do not believe your own propaganda. That, at least, suggests a grain of sanity.
Post by: acsinuk on 22/07/2021 11:35:06
Just like the common cold most of us will hardly be effected particularly if we have been vaccinated.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/07/2021 12:32:46
And there is no evidence that herd immunity is genetic, so future generations will continue to suffer.
But at least you won't be inconvenienced.
Post by: Bored chemist on 22/07/2021 12:53:27
Everyone in the whole world, including relatives, must get the covid virus until we all become herd immune.Why?
I have an idea for you- cross out covid and put "smallpox" or "ebola" in its place and see if you still think it's a good idea.
Post by: Bored chemist on 22/07/2021 12:55:32
How to evolve a virus to be immune to the vaccine.
Everyone in the whole world, including relatives, must get the covid virus until we all become herd immune.
Just like the common cold most of us will hardly be effected particularly if we have been vaccinated.
That should do it nicely.
Are you a special advisor to Boris?
Post by: acsinuk on 23/07/2021 11:10:34
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/07/2021 11:14:19
Forget quarantine;So, you advocate forgetting the policy which is actually known to work.
You will struggle to sell that idea in the antipodes where they have kept infection and death rates down by doing the thing you say they should forget.
Do you enjoy being laughed at?
Post by: evan_au on 23/07/2021 11:38:20
Quote from: acsinuk
My concern is Aussies and Kiwis they must get vaccinated in time for the rugby.After an unvaccinated airport limo-driver in Sydney caught Delta strain, Australia has a a significant outbreak.
- New Zealand has taken in their welcome mat
- All of the professional ellipsoid chasers have escaped to any state that will have them.
- But I think it has really changed the discussion around vaccination
- People in Sydney are grumbling about a lockdown, but that is nothing compared to lockdowns in Melbourne (or the UK)
Post by: alancalverd on 23/07/2021 17:18:02
Forgetquarantine;thatjusta stopgapmeasure.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 27/07/2021 03:53:27
First UK, then South African and now Brazilian mutate. We have got to get our act together and set up a fast track testing on guinea pigs who will not sue us if some side effects occur.. Any suggestions??I think the most accurate and safe way is using organoids.
Post by: alancalverd on 01/08/2021 18:31:02
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 03/08/2021 14:59:13
Safe, but irrelevant. The problem with COVID is that it induces a systemic over-reaction (cytokine storm) rather than attacking any particular organ, and the entire system can move into an unsustainable condition.Then the organoids can be assembled from various types of organs to create more complex system.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/08/2021 11:37:07
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2021 11:10:01
....like a live animal, perhaps? Cheap, self-replicating with just enough variability to be a useful test, and a very good model of a live animal.Preferably those with similar physiology as humans.
Something safe for tardigrades may not be safe for humans.
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2021 12:26:35
Something safe for tardigrades may not be safe for humans.
Yes, and of course.
Something safe for organoids may not be safe for humans.
So, as Alan said, there's not much point testing vaccines on them, is there?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 05/08/2021 13:09:06
When the uncertainty is high, such as in early stages, simpler systems can be used for test. If it's promising, then increase the complexity step by step to resemble a more complete human body.Something safe for tardigrades may not be safe for humans.
Yes, and of course.
Something safe for organoids may not be safe for humans.
So, as Alan said, there's not much point testing vaccines on them, is there?
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2021 14:05:36
When the uncertainty is high, such as in early stages, simpler systems can be used for test. If it's promising, then increase the complexity step by step to resemble a more complete human body.What do you think they currently do?
Do you not think they worked that out already?
Post by: acsinuk on 05/08/2021 16:00:02
No point in putting your head in the sand like the Kiwis and Aussies are doing!! Isolation can not work in the long term..
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2021 16:09:17
No point in putting your head in the sand like the Kiwis and Aussies are doing!!That's not what they are doing.
And, whatever they are doing, it works.
Look at their death rates.
We should be copying them.
Isolation can not work in the long term..
That's not what it is for.
It's a short term measure which actually works. And you do that while you get your population vaccinated.
If you are successful, you get a vastly lower death rate- and they have.
Why are you criticising one of the big success stories?
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2021 21:10:22
Preferably those with similar physiology as humans.Like a human, for instance? There wouldn't be much point in testing an anti-zoonotic vaccine on a mammal that tolerates the zoonosis. Thalidomide was deemed safe after testing on rabbits.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2021 21:13:04
We were slow in issuing the vaccineLess than a year from problem to solution, compares very well with smallpox or polio, thanks to a very rapid system for approving and monitoring tests. Only politics and stupidity have stood in the way.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 03:51:17
Eventually, the new vaccines must be tested on humans in experimental setup, before they are released to public.Preferably those with similar physiology as humans.Like a human, for instance? There wouldn't be much point in testing an anti-zoonotic vaccine on a mammal that tolerates the zoonosis. Thalidomide was deemed safe after testing on rabbits.
The problem is how to minimize risk before they are tested on human subjects. You can test on animals which are closely resemble humans physiologically, such as chimpanzee. The more similar they are, the accuracy would be better, and less risk for human subjects. Genetically modified chimpanzee with some human genome would be more accurate. But that would raise concerns from ethics committee.
That's where organoids may help. The ethics committee just have to draw the limit, how complete the organoid system can be to be approved as medical test subject.
Another option is to build an accurate and precise computer model to simulate human physiology, and how it will react to exposure of various substances. Alphafold can be seen as a starting point. I discuss the importance of building an accurate, precise, and relevant virtual universe in another thread.
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 03:57:09
Precisely. The question would then be: why you said this?When the uncertainty is high, such as in early stages, simpler systems can be used for test. If it's promising, then increase the complexity step by step to resemble a more complete human body.What do you think they currently do?
Do you not think they worked that out already?
there's not much point testing vaccines on them, is there?
Post by: hamdani yusuf on 06/08/2021 08:08:52
https://scitechdaily.com/highly-potent-covid-treatment-new-nanobodies-stop-sars-cov-2-and-its-dangerous-variants/
Quote
By Max Planck Institute August 4, 2021
(https://scitechdaily.com/images/Coronavirus-Nanobodies-Alpacas-scaled.jpg)
Coronavirus Nanobodies Alpacas
The figure shows how two of the newly developed nanobodies (blue and magenta) bind to the receptor-binding domain (green) of the coronavirus spike protein (grey), thus preventing infection with Sars-CoV-2 and its variants. The nanobodies originate from alpacas and are smaller and simpler than conventional antibodies. Credit: Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry
Göttingen researchers have developed mini-antibodies that efficiently block the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and its dangerous new variants. These so-called nanobodies bind and neutralize the virus up to 1000 times better than previously developed mini-antibodies. In addition, the scientists optimized their mini-antibodies for stability and resistance to extreme heat. This unique combination makes them promising agents to treat COVID-19. Since nanobodies can be produced at low costs in large quantities, they could meet the global demand for COVID-19 therapeutics. The new nanobodies are currently in preparation for clinical trials.
Antibodies help our immune system to fend off pathogens. For example, the molecules attach to viruses and neutralize them so that they can no longer infect cells. Antibodies can also be produced industrially and administered to acutely ill patients. They then act like drugs, relieving symptoms and shortening recovery from the disease. This is established practice for treating hepatitis B and rabies. Antibodies are also used for treating COVID-19 patients. However, producing these molecules on an industrial scale is too complex and expensive to meet worldwide demand. Nanobodies could solve this problem.
Scientists at the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Biophysical Chemistry in Göttingen (Germany) and the University Medical Center Göttingen (UMG) have now developed mini-antibodies (also known as VHH antibodies or nanobodies) that unite all the properties required for a potent drug against COVID-19. “For the first time, they combine extreme stability and outstanding efficacy against the virus and its Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta mutants,” emphasizes Dirk Görlich, director at the MPI for Biophysical Chemistry.
At first glance, the new nanobodies hardly differ from anti-SARS-CoV-2 nanobodies developed by other labs. They are all directed against a crucial part of the coronavirus spikes, the receptor-binding domain that the virus deploys for invading host cells. The nanobodies block this binding domain and thereby prevent the virus from infecting cells.
“Our nanobodies can withstand temperatures of up to 95 °C without losing their function or forming aggregates,” explains Matthias Dobbelstein, professor and director of the UMG’s Institute of Molecular Oncology. “For one thing, this tells us that they might remain active in the body long enough to be effective. For another, heat-resistant nanobodies are easier to produce, process, and store.”
Single, double, and triple nanobodies
The simplest mini-antibodies developed by the Göttingen team already bind up to 1000 times more strongly to the spike protein than previously reported nanobodies. They also bind very well to the mutated receptor-binding domains of the Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and Delta strains. “Our single nanobodies are potentially suitable for inhalation and thus for direct virus neutralization in the respiratory tract,” Dobbelstein says. “In addition, because they are very small, they could readily penetrate tissues and prevent the virus from spreading further at the site of infection.”
A ‘nanobody triad’ further improves binding: The researchers bundled three identical nanobodies according to the symmetry of the spike protein, which is comprised of three identical building blocks with three binding domains. “With the nanobody triad, we literally join forces: In an ideal scenario, each of the three nanobodies attaches to one of the three binding domains,” reports Thomas Güttler, a scientist in Görlich’s team. “This creates a virtually irreversible bond. The triple will not let release the spike protein and neutralizes the virus even up to 30,000-fold better than the single nanobodies.” Another advantage: The larger size of the nanobody triad expectedly delays renal excretion. This keeps them in the body for longer and promises a longer-lasting therapeutic effect.
As a third design, the scientists produced tandems. These combine two nanobodies that target different parts of the receptor-binding domain and together can bind the spike protein. “Such tandems are extremely resistant to virus mutations and the resulting ‘immune escape’ because they bind the viral spike so strongly”, explains Metin Aksu, a researcher in Görlich’s team.
For all nanobody variants – monomeric, double as well as triple – the researchers found that very small amounts are sufficient to stop the pathogen. If used as a drug, this would allow for a low dosage and thus for fewer side effects and lower production costs.
Post by: sceptic-eng on 06/12/2021 20:40:06
Post by: sceptic-eng on 16/12/2021 00:55:59
1] Admit that we are not God and cannot stop viruses mutating.
2] Provide vaccinations to third world counties and develop Covid booster tablets to treat variants
3] Stop testing and track & trace completely as both are causing public anxiety and panic unnecessarily.
4] Only consider lock-downs only when hospital ICU departments reach 50% Covid patients.
Post by: evan_au on 16/12/2021 10:39:16
Quote from: sceptic-eng
we are already 90% vaccinated and herd immune to CovidThat was pretty true for Delta.
Preliminary data on Omicron suggest that it is:
- about twice as infectious as Delta,
- and our vaccines are less effective than on Delta (70% effective straight after a booster for omicron, vs 90% effective straight after a booster for Delta)
That suggests we would need very high vaccination rates to get herd immunity for Delta.
Back of the envelope calculation:
- Assume R0 for omicron is 14 (nearly as bad as measles, at around 16)
For herd immunity, an infected person would need to come into contact with at most 1 susceptible individual, on average.
- IF the vaccines were 100% effective, that means 13/14 people would be vaccinated, or 93%
- Assuming the Booster shot wanes to 50% effective after 6 months, we would need 27/28 people vaccinated, or 96% triple-dosed
In a few more weeks, we should know more about severity of disease from Omicron.
- If the severity is less than Delta, AND the vaccines reduce severe disease, public health authorities may decide to let it run its course.
- I will still be taking my mask with me when I go out...
Post by: alancalverd on 16/12/2021 11:18:02
Even if omicron turns out to be less lethal than its predecessors, increased infectivity means that medical services can be swamped by "possibles", to the detriment of patients suffering from other diseases and injuries.
Furthermore, self-isolation of known contacts reduces the capacity of those services to handle anything: if one member of a team tests positive, you have to stand the entire team down. Cancelling football matches and brass band gigs (I speak from current experience of the latter) is an annoyance, but suspending a surgical team is really bad news.
Within 60 years, Man had advanced from 30 seconds' powered flight to making round trips to the moon. We eliminated smallpox by quarantine and compulsory vaccination of travelers. Ebola is pretty well contained to a few endemic areas. What's gone wrong with the world in the face of COVID?
Post by: sceptic-eng on 21/12/2021 20:45:07
What needs to be addressed is the requirement to self isolate if you have been near to an infectious person. This is causing many sportsmen in particular to miss fixtures unnecessarily. If a covid test then shows them clear then let them play and leave the team medics to keep an eye on them.
To me, everyone is infectious anyway and is carrying the virus but because they have been vaccinated do not develop the flu. Isolation for me is totally unnecessary unless you have tested positive to covid in which case it should be mandatory to stay at home and is common sense anyway.
Medical staff should be the very first to receive any vaccinations and booster treatment and again they should not self isolate unless they have a positive covid test result.
If we were to stop public testing and issuing the results that would help immeasurably to stop the media hype which is causing so much anxiety and misery to everyone..
Post by: Bored chemist on 21/12/2021 21:40:01
What's gone wrong with the world in the face of COVID?Politicians who think making a fast buck is more important than maintaining the health of the population.
It's hard to imagine why anyone voted for them.
Post by: Bored chemist on 21/12/2021 21:41:12
This is causing many sportsmen in particular to miss fixtures unnecessarily.Who cares?
Post by: evan_au on 24/12/2021 20:14:13
Quote from:
everyone is infectious anyway and is carrying the virusSpeak for your own country.
Australia is an island, and managed to prevent widespread infection by quarantine and test/trace and mask-wearing practices, plus lockdowns.
- So the population had very low levels of natural immunity,
- but high levels of vaccination
- So they decided to relax all the rules for Christmas
...And then Omicron arrived!
- Extremely infectious
- Natural immunity is not very effective against infection
- Vaccination is not very effective against infection
So now many of the restrictions ae back on...
- Intentionally, eg mandating mask-wearing in shops
- or accidentally: Internal borders have reopened, but so many aircrew were listed as close contacts that they could only staff half of the planes.
Post by: alancalverd on 24/12/2021 22:32:59
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/12/2021 23:33:29
national health service would charge the full cost of treatment to anyone
Post by: alancalverd on 25/12/2021 10:24:05
History may be bunk, but it's not a good idea to pretend that bunk is history.
Post by: Bored chemist on 25/12/2021 13:11:49
The UK govt, desperate for a trade deal with the US (who are in a position to wait) will end up selling the NHS to the US healthcare industry.
Post by: alancalverd on 25/12/2021 17:37:55
Post by: Bored chemist on 25/12/2021 17:41:37
Do you close your eyes to that as well?
https://www.nhsforsale.info/private-providers/virgin-care-ltd-new/#:~:text=Virgin%20Care%20was%20acquired%20by,the%20healthcare%20market%20in%202010.
Post by: alancalverd on 26/12/2021 11:29:18
AFAIK there is no nationalised industry making pharmaceuticals or medical devices in the UK. Most new hospitals are privately owned and rented to the NHS under PPI arrangements. Many staff are employed by private agencies. "Hotel" services have been privatised since the glorious days of St Thatcher. The only fully public sector involvement is in the massively redundant managerial sector..
Post by: sceptic-eng on 09/01/2022 20:36:53
To most double vaccinated people Omicron is just like a common cold and disappears after a week.
Post by: alancalverd on 10/01/2022 11:16:35
To most double vaccinated people Omicron is just like a common cold and disappears after a week.Thank you for that valuable insight. I will pass it on to my 40-year-old son who usually walks 10 miles a day but is currently unable to stand up for more than 10 minutes thanks to your common cold. Worse still, his pet guinea pig is now suffering too.
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/01/2022 19:34:09
Yes, the research appears to be a joint effort with pharma and universities sharing the costs of running the laboratory experiments. So if the costs are shared then so also should be the patent rights. Enough of pharma financial director and market manager running around in Ferrari's and overcharging the public for a third injection and unnecessary additional testings that only confuse everyone into believing they need an extra jab.Would you like to remind us what your medical qualifications are?
To most double vaccinated people Omicron is just like a common cold and disappears after a week.
Post by: sceptic-eng on 14/01/2022 20:15:56
Well, if you are feeling flu'y then go to bed immediately and inform nearest and dearest of your plight. Do not go to a test centre as you may then be infecting around 6 or 7 other people or if you test negative you will yourself probably have caught it from them.
Its a numbers game so if everyone in the world is to catch Omicron this year then Australia with 25 million people will have 25,000,000/365 =68,000 per day. Well, luckily most people have been vaccinated and will not even know they have the Omicron variant; so what then is the point of testing if it will cause them to isolate causing unnecessarily disruption?.
Post by: evan_au on 14/01/2022 21:27:56
- Testing & Tracing contacts and having them isolate means that a fraction of the workforce has to isolate, over a period of several months until everyone has caught it. This assumes that you can get a test (very hard), and that contact tracers (people or computers) are able to keep up (they can't), but it will limit peak numbers in hospital.
- A "Let it Rip" philosophy means that a lot of people will catch it all together, since exposed individuals will pass it on to others asymptomatically. It is likely that people will die because hospitals are overloaded, but the disruption will be fairly short (perhaps a month or so).
- Australia is currently trying to take a middle path, where contacts can still go to work provided they test negative on a RAT. This assumes that people can find a RAT - but it appears that someone is commandeering the supplies (whether that be the government or criminal gangs)...
Leaders of countries like the USA & Brazil (and to a lesser extent, UK) who took a "Let it Rip" approach with Wuhan and Alpha variants experienced a high death rate. "Let it Rip" may well be a slightly more feasible philosophy with Omicron, as it appears less lethal.
Either way, I smell a RAT...
Post by: evan_au on 14/01/2022 21:42:11
- 1919 Flu: about 15,000 Australians died out of 2,000,000 infected (40% of the population), or 0.8%.
- COVID (Up to Delta, in mid-Nov 2021): 74 deaths/million vs 7478 infected per million, or 1% (with only 5% of the population infected so far, but heading towards 40%)*
*I exclude the December Omicron outbreak, as this has not had time to progress to deaths, and the testing system fell apart when Omicron hit; but Omicron looks a lot less lethal than Delta.
- Arguments between states and Federal government were also frequent in 1919...
- In both cases, Australia's island status and aggressive quarantine actions helped delay import of the virus until a less lethal strain appeared.
- Western Australia managed to contain it better than other states (an island within an island).
- Despite not isolating the Flu pathogen until the 1930s, in 1919 they managed to produce and distribute a vaccine against (some variants of) pneumonia, the most common cause of death from Flu infection.
- But today's vaccines are much more effective, and today's ICU much more sophisticated.
https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/influenza-pandemic
Background
It is said that in WW1, more people died of pandemic flu than all the bombs, bullets and poison gas.
- This information was withheld from public view as it was feared that it might demoralize the war effort (only neutral Spain published the news in real time, so it became known as the "Spanish Flu").
Despite the censorship, wartime Australia held Spanish flu at bay by the same public health measures as used for COVID-19 - quarantine, lockdowns, masks and even rapid vaccine development. The death rate was much higher in other countries which were more exposed to earlier waves.
With Spanish flu, 40% of the Australian population were infected, and 0.7% of the infected patients died.
Post by: sceptic-eng on 20/01/2022 02:41:48
Post by: Bored chemist on 20/01/2022 08:57:20
Maybe a "let it rip" approach may be better for the planet in the long run.Possibly, but which of your friends and family are you prepared to sacrifice, and would you accept the judgement of someone who nominated you for death?
Post by: sceptic-eng on 27/01/2022 20:16:50
Anyway, health and critical service workers cannot be allowed to isolate when they meet someone who is positive, as they are required to continue looking after hospital patients who will otherwise die of starvation.
Post by: Bored chemist on 27/01/2022 20:27:30
I am afraid we will not have any choice in the matter of who will surviveAbout 90% of us (in the UK) exercised our choice to get at least one vaccination, thereby reducing the severity of infection etc.
Anyway, health and critical service workers cannot be allowed to isolate when they meet someone who is positive, as they are required to continue looking after hospital patients who will otherwise die of starvation.So, you think they shouldn't isolate, but should go about their work and spread the virus to other patients?
Well... it's one viewpoint.
A more sensible viewpoint would be
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrier_nursing
Post by: evan_au on 27/01/2022 20:30:21
I am concerned that there may still be some Delta around, and after the Omicron peak has passed, the more deadly (but less infectious) Delta variant may still persist in the unvaccinated.
Post by: sceptic-eng on 31/01/2022 20:54:31
Boris needs to go further and revise the policy that recommends that NHS staff and critical workers need to self isolate if they have been in contact with a person with a positive Omicron Covid result as that is like telling the tide to stop coming in or banning the common cold..
Only new delta variant patients should be counted as Covid19 cases and probably not people over 80 that die within 28 days who have other more obvious reasons for dying.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/01/2022 22:15:32
Post by: sceptic-eng on 23/02/2022 21:46:35
Lets face it if our queen can catch Omicron variant and just carry on working as usual then so can everyone. The quicker we stop testing and assume everyone has already had covid and survived the better. Only doctors in hospitals should be allowed to authorize a Covid test and certainly no death should be recorded as a Covid death unless the coroner is absolutely sure that it was the only reason for death.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/02/2022 22:11:30
After campaigning against face masks right up until the moment that COVID cases started their last spectacular rise, this moronic ex-banker (who costs you £150,000 per year in salary alone, never mind the damage he does to your public services) finally spoke ex cathedra, summing up his years of complete ignorance of anything to do with medicine,with this astonishing advice:
"If you feel ill, don't go to work."
I bet your mum never said anything as clever as that!
Post by: acsinuk on 03/04/2022 17:11:40
Post by: alancalverd on 03/04/2022 17:19:43
Post by: Bored chemist on 03/04/2022 18:02:35
We cannot continue to live in a state of fear.Why not?
Is it not sensible to be concerned about things that can kill you, and seek to avoid them?
Post by: alancalverd on 03/04/2022 23:07:53
Post by: evan_au on 03/04/2022 23:20:41
Quote from: acsinuk
We cannot continue to live in a state of fear.There is fear on all sides of this debate - even among those who claim to be fearless.
People deal with this fear in different ways:
- As you say, some susceptible people will fear the disease, and will wear masks when there is an outbreak, and stay away from crowds
- Some susceptible people will fear the disease, and get vaccinated to make themselves less susceptible. Countries with a public health system will promote this, as they know that the cost of vaccination is lower than the cost of acute treatment plus long-term care.
- Some people will deal with the disease by trying to ignore it - "its just a cold". Or "I am young and healthy, so it won't affect me" (and if they are young and healthy, they will probably be right).
- Some people try to project an image of invulnerability by eschewing masks - and by continuing normal activities even when showing symptoms.
- Some people play with these fears by amplifying fears about the vaccine, and minimizing fears of the disease - to the extent that the normal balance of probabilities is reversed, and some fraction of the population refuses to be vaccinated. One imagines that hostile parties may want to fuel these fears as a way of weakening a competitor.
- Epidemiologists fear the emergence of a new variant that might be as lethal as delta variant, and as infectious as omega. It is common that later variants are less lethal - but it's not a law of nature.
The nearest equivalent pandemic was the "Russian flu" of 1889, which was almost certainly a coronavirus. Outbreaks continued for about 6 years - so do you want to continue to live for the next 4 years, or do you want to give up now?
There are some obvious differences from 1889:
- We now have vaccines
- We now have agile processes to develop vaccines against variants - but it will still take 3-6 months to approve a vaccine against a new variant, and ramp up production & distribution.
- We now have large numbers of immune-compromised people due to transplants, cancer or cancer therapy, AIDS, etc. Once infected, these people spin off multiple variants without actually recovering.
- We now have international air travel, so a small localized outbreak can be on the other side of the world in 24 hours.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic
Quote from: Franklin D. Roosevelt
The only thing we have to fear is fear itself....when fear makes us do stupid things (and susceptible people wearing a mask during an outbreak is not stupid).
Post by: acsinuk on 04/04/2022 16:33:30
Lockdowns resulted in massive economic disruption and our children to miss out on education and social mixing attributes plus the isolation of our old folks in care homes
On the plus side it has reduced the time to develop vaccines to months rather than years; so the next pandemic will just require a rapid R&D response from the pharmaceutical industry.
Fear shows weakness and courage in times of adversity shows strength. Everyone is going to die sometime and prayerfully in a relaxed and dignified manner.
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/04/2022 18:16:40
Fear caused a panicWhere?
The only panic I saw was idiots buying toilet paper.
On the other hand, today, travel is disrupted because people who do stuff like run trains are off sick with covid.
Sadly, the choice for the old folks was lonely in a home or even lonelier in the grave.
Post by: acsinuk on 10/04/2022 20:06:29
Vaccinations always come as a needle, glass capsule kit wrapped in triple plastic with sheets of instruction papers with health and safety get out clauses all creating more and more waste and pushing up the price enormously to around £40 per shot. A cheap 40p pill could have done the same job slightly slower though; so why O why are we polluting the planet with more waste plastic and paper some of which is bound to land up in the oceans.
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/04/2022 20:40:31
People going off sick with covid will slow down now that testing is no longer mandatory and anyway.Not really.
Did you actually think that through?
Do you realise that people who are sick, but don't know it will spread the bug to others who will fall ill and take time off sick?
. A cheap 40p pill could have done the same jobBollocks.
Post by: alancalverd on 11/04/2022 17:49:39
People going off sick with covid will slow down now that testing is no longer mandatoryYou forget that our wondrous Secretary of State for Health, who knows as little about the subject as you seem to, has published the following profound advice: "If you feel sick, don't go to work". This seems to me to cover every eventuality from a hangover to terminal cancer, so I don't see why it shouldn't apply to COVID.
Abandoning free tests just means that there will be more COVID spread about by people who think they just have a sniffle and can't be arsed to fork out £2 to protect everyone else.
Anyway I'm delighted to learn that your 40 p pill will do the same job but slower. Presumably by preventing the birth of more idiots. Brilliant!
Post by: acsinuk on 12/04/2022 12:16:54
Post by: Bored chemist on 12/04/2022 13:00:40
. If you decide pills can do the jobIt is not a matter of "deciding" that pills can do the job, is it?
If you "decided" that aspirin cures anthrax that doesn't actually make it true, does it?
Do you somehow think that pharmaceutical technology is magic or something?
Post by: acsinuk on 20/04/2022 17:09:54
Post by: alancalverd on 20/04/2022 17:22:39
Post by: Bored chemist on 20/04/2022 19:48:15
Do you somehow think that pharmaceutical technology is magicNo.
But you seem to think it is.
That's why you think you can make a vaccine that would work as a pill.
Very few vaccines are effective orally.
Polio is, but polio typically infects the gut first anyway so it's the "natural" route of entry.
Most vaccines are essentially proteins (the covid vaccine is more complex, but the idea still holds).
If you make pills of them, they get digested before they can do any good.
That's why they are given by injection.
As Alan has pointed out, the profit margin would be much better on a pill, so that's what the pharmaceutical industry would make if they possibly could.
And one thing they do know is how to make a profit.
So it must be very very difficult or impossible to make a covid vaccine pill.
Yet you keep insisting that they do it.
So... are you proposing that they use magic to do so?
Post by: acsinuk on 26/04/2022 13:36:48
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/04/2022 18:43:32
What are the Moderna and Pfizer Paxlovid anti Covid pills made of?Things that neither cure not prevent covid.
As the latest Covid variant is so weakIt isn't.
save us all further inflation.The covid vaccine isn't the cause of inflation.
I seem to remember that we used to have a sandpaper powder scratch on our arms in the very distant past against one of the common childs diseases .Do you have any further information about this?
Post by: alancalverd on 27/04/2022 12:56:41
Post by: SeanB on 28/04/2022 08:29:33
Post by: acsinuk on 28/04/2022 09:43:09
Not sure TB vaccinations are given to the children in Africa or whether like here only the 6 in 1 is given to babies.
The FDA authorized the emergency substance use of Paxlovid but Pfizer did advise that the original vaccination absolutely necessary and the pill was only suitable as a backup. But surely this backup is all most of us will need this year?
Post by: SeanB on 28/04/2022 12:18:40
Post by: acsinuk on 23/08/2022 13:32:30
First it was monkey-pox, then polio now flu with no end in sight of what will predicted to come up next.,
This constant pressure is encouraged by the pharmaceuticals who are in the business of making a profit at everyone's expense.
The drug developers [ mostly funded by the government ] should be advised to produce pills or scratch board powders that can be self administered saving the NHS time and the recycling of millions of needles, syringes, masks, wet wipes, etc. etc.
Post by: alancalverd on 23/08/2022 13:47:53
The advantage of taxpayer-funded vaccination programs is that they protect everyone ()except idiots) from everyone else (except idiots). If it was all left to market forces the poor would become dangerous.
It is the goal of every pharmaceutical manufacturer to produce pills with a long shelf life,simple quality control, wider acceptability and negligible administration costs compared with vaccines, but Pfizer's anti-COVID pill hasn't been thoroughly proved to date, and it is generally easier to modify a vaccine as the virus mutates.
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/08/2022 16:31:12
should be advised to produce pills or scratch board powders that can be self administered saving the NHS timeWhy should they be advised to use magic?
Post by: paul cotter on 23/08/2022 20:04:27
Post by: alancalverd on 24/08/2022 00:29:15
Said son recovered fully enough to go back to work and is now laid off with injuries to his hands and forearms from shucking 10,000 oysters and 1000 lobsters at a seafood fair (he's a chef)!
My COVID bug evaded four vaccinations and made me infectious but with only the mildest of symptoms for a couple of weeks, whilst The Boss, with the same vaccination history, mostly the same exposure to others and occasional close contact with me, had no symptoms or positive tests at all! It's a weird and wily beast.
Post by: paul cotter on 24/08/2022 13:28:46
Post by: Colin2B on 24/08/2022 14:26:18
the concept of a 40 year old with long covid is a chilling one.Even more so is a friend of ours, in 40s, now has a defibrillator fitted due to covid. Previously fit, he now finds even medium exertion brings on breathlessness. He was unlucky to catch it before vaccinations.
Post by: paul cotter on 24/08/2022 15:46:05
Post by: Colin2B on 24/08/2022 18:53:52
From the first shot my heart rhythm became erratic and after the booster I had essentially random beats and bursts of tachycardia that went on for 6 months.Wise decision if you have a bad reaction. Possibly one of the carrier ingredients disagrees with you.
Post by: SeanB on 25/08/2022 14:46:43
Post by: evan_au on 26/08/2022 10:55:49
Quote from: Paul Cotter
the concept of a 40 year old with long covid is a chilling one.Some recent figures released by the Australian government suggests that around 12% of the workforce is off-work due to long COVID.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/long-covid-absolutely-smashed-the-labour-market-20220826-p5bd13
Post by: paul cotter on 26/08/2022 11:58:37
Post by: acsinuk on 30/08/2022 15:36:47
Post by: alancalverd on 30/08/2022 16:29:11
Some problem of disposing of the vast quantity of waste, ensuring that the idiot public actually use the damn thing correctly and appropriately, and documenting the result, but it might work in a country that has a reliable postal system,a literate populace, and no nurses, pharmacists or paramedics.
Power to your elbow, my friend, and do make contact when you have sorted out the practicalities a bit.
Post by: evan_au on 30/08/2022 22:42:37
Quote from:
a micro finger ***** lanceletMaybe we need the good knight Sir Lancelot to ride around the neighborhood on his noble steed, lancing everyone within sight...
Post by: acsinuk on 31/08/2022 13:17:14
The NHS overreaction whipped up by media hype caused major problems and with Covid and flu injections about to hit the NHS again this winter they need some relief to stop any further panic.
Post by: Bored chemist on 31/08/2022 13:46:21
We really cannot afford another pandemicWe don't get to choose.
The NHS overreaction whipped up by media hype caused major problemsYou spelled "saved many lives" incorrectly.