Naked Science Forum
General Discussion & Feedback => Radio Show & Podcast Feedback => Topic started by: katieHaylor on 22/10/2020 13:32:17
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Jim got in touch with some feedback:
From someone who has survived Asian flu, Hong Kong flus plus several others, I find the media/medical induced panic over this disease somewhat galling and economically unsustainable.
As for the statistics I would like to see more detail, i.e. where do the deaths occur in relation to the number of positive cases in the area that they happen in? What is the average age of the deaths in that area?
I know that you guys reckon to know what happens to the body when effected by such a virus but you do not know exactly how the disease spreads. Nature being perverse in its effects.
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The overall fatality rate from COVID-19 seems to be about 6% when introduced to a country, falling to about 4% when it has killed off the most vulnerable. It is spread entirely by human proximity - my guess is that very few diseased bats are being eaten these days.
The reasons why it is a particularly unpleasant creature is
(a) the minimum dose for infection is very small (possibly 100 virus particles)
(b) carriers can be infectious but asymptomatic or have mild and nonspecific symptoms for several days
(c) infection is via exhaled aerosol which can travel a few meters from the source and can persist on some surfaces
(d) there is a wide spectrum of outcomes from apparent full recovery to either death or "long COVID" with disabling symptoms persisting for several months after clearance of the primary virus
(e) there is no evidence of persistent immunity after recovery.
The problem with the statistics is that primary COVID is not always recorded as cause of death. Inflammation cased by the immune response to COVID diminishes cardiorespiratory capability so many patients may die from "minor" secondary infections such as pneumonia that would normally be treated with conventional antibiotics.
The only credible statistic is excess deaths adjusted for season, leading to the figures quoted above. These seem fairly consistent in areas where the incidence of infection is reasonably high and reporting is credible.
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someone who has survived Asian flu, Hong Kong flus plus several others,
I wonder why they consider that to be relevant.